最初感动的个人主页 - 老虎社区

最初感动

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2018-03-22

狗东就是狗改不了吃屎

$京东(JD)$ 如题

狗东就是狗改不了吃屎

2019-02-27

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 我想说我今天早上一看到消息 184割肉的...........特斯拉，我就没赚过钱.....

2019-01-15

$汽车之家(ATHM)$ 短线快进快出

2021-12-04

$高途(GOTU)$躺平

2018-10-08

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 打算定个闹钟三点半爬起来如果特斯拉是相对低价就买30股看看...大家怎么看..

2018-03-28

$京东(JD)$割肉3块多跑了以后不玩京东了再涨也不眼红垃圾东西人品差面相差第二个影帝。

2020-08-08

$跟谁学(GSX)$ 推土机钱捡钢镚，只要不亏，就熬夜交易下去...

2019-02-09

$精锐教育(ONE)$ 我有学霸错题本

2020-02-04

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 如果昨天730空了...我会死得很惨...妖股

2020-09-04

$精锐教育(ONE)$ 看了跟谁学和学而思，才觉得精锐有多便宜，但是然并卵，好像没人喜欢炒。散户买了，但是没有庄，也涨不起来吧

2023-10-19

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 哪个眼睛看到大涨？

2018-09-21

$蔚来汽车(NIO)$ 请问老虎怎么打新

2022-01-24

$精锐教育(ONE)$有本事今天一步到位0.2元当你没合股

2018-10-05

$京东(JD)$ 我承认我是韭菜割肉.

2020-09-28

$携程网(TCOM)$ 这里的新闻还没同花顺多不知道金融牌照得新闻今天可以涨几个点

2018-03-27

$京东(JD)$ 要爹的时候跑的快要涨的时候疲卵..好垃圾..这次解套后一定不买鸡店了

2018-10-01

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 请教有关做空的问题，我是这么理解的：我是每天问别人借股票，借我股票的人可以选择不借给我，但是券商会找其他愿意借给我的人再次借我。不愿借我股票的人取回自己的股票有周期时间。所以说做空，不必每次开盘再问别人借，而是一个相对稳定连续的过程

01-04

$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$ 这个有股息吗

2023-03-01

既然觉得是38元股价你应该卖房梭哈对吧

哔哩哔哩：资产负债表强劲，将实现可观的盈利增长？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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你应该卖房梭哈对吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624738717","repostId":"1184011300","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1184011300","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"美股研究社，一个专注研究美股的平台，专业的美股投资人都在这。想了解美国股市行情、美股开户、美股资讯、美股公司；想获得一手美股重磅信息；想加入美股交流社群，敬请关注我们吧。","home_visible":0,"media_name":"美股研究社","id":"1074069735","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6"},"pubTimestamp":1677670915,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184011300?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-01 19:41","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"哔哩哔哩：资产负债表强劲，将实现可观的盈利增长？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184011300","media":"美股研究社","summary":"哔哩哔哩自公布好于预期的第三季度业绩和乐观的指引以来，股价上涨了约57%。不过，尽管哔哩哔哩的估值最近有所扩大，但其股价仍较历史高点下跌了近90%。在我看来，哔哩哔哩的股价相对于该公司的商业潜力来说是","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>自公布好于预期的第三季度业绩和乐观的指引以来，股价上涨了约57%。</p><p>不过，尽管哔哩哔哩的估值最近有所扩大，但其股价仍较历史高点下跌了近90%。在我看来，哔哩哔哩的股价相对于该公司的商业潜力来说是便宜的。</p><p>在哔哩哔哩 9月份季度业绩强劲的背景下，管理层评论暗示将更加关注盈利能力，因此我提高了对哔哩哔哩到2025年的每股收益预期。我现在计算的基本目标价为38.12美元/股。</p><p>作为参考，哔哩哔哩今年迄今与标准普尔500指数(SPY)的表现差距仍然很大:BILI指数下跌了55%，而SPY指数“仅”下跌了15%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0685b2a738e299998baf65ba23cbdc6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"224\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><b>哔哩哔哩第三季度业绩</b></p><p><b>强大的业务拓展和参与度</b></p><p>在7月至9月底期间，哔哩哔哩的总收入为8.145亿美元，而去年同期约为7.34亿美元(同比增长11%)，分析师一致估计约为7.9亿美元(比预期高出2500万美元)。</p><p>值得注意的是，与2021年第三季度相比，哔哩哔哩的所有盈利支柱都实现了扩张(强调添加):</p><ul><li><p>移动游戏收入为15亿元人民币(2.068亿美元)，比2021年同期增长6%。</p></li></ul><ul><li><p>VAS收入为22亿元人民币(3.106亿美元)，较2021年同期增长16%。</p></li></ul><ul><li><p>广告收入为14亿元人民币(1.905亿美元)，较2021年同期增长16%。</p></li></ul><ul><li><p>电子商务和其他收入为7.578亿元人民币(1.065亿美元)，比2021年同期增长3%。</p></li></ul><p>总的来说，我认为哔哩哔哩收入的增长更多地是受到用户基础的强劲增长的支持，而不是推动更高的用户货币化。</p><p>截至2022年9月底，哔哩哔哩的月活跃用户(“MAU”)增加到3.326亿，比2021年同期增长25%。DAU达到9030万，分别增长25%。付费MAU为2850万(同比增长19%)。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89b585ae3279bdabeb6e8cea5f605e2e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>哔哩哔哩 Q3 2022年结果</p><p>哔哩哔哩的用户粘性仍然非常强劲:在2022年第三季度，每位用户每天在该平台上花费的平均时间为83分钟。此外，视频日均浏览量同比增长64%，达到37亿次。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45a41d72138725eac08a2a696b6dfda5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>哔哩哔哩 Q3 2022年结果</p><p><b>盈利能力仍处于亏损状态</b></p><p>2022年第三季度，哔哩哔哩的毛利润为1.482亿美元，与2021年同期相比仅增长4%。尽管哔哩哔哩的运营费用收缩至45.2%(2021年第三季度为51.4%)，但平台业务仍处于亏损状态——该期间的净亏损为2.412亿美元(比2021年第三季度缩小36%)。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc2772710097d4841b779236de06cd96\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>哔哩哔哩 Q3 2022年结果</p><p><b>预期盈利能力</b></p><p>不过，有两个理由可能会让投资者感到宽慰:</p><p>首先，哔哩哔哩的资产负债表依然强劲，有足够的弹性来吸收一些亏损。截至2022年9月底，该公司拥有33.65亿美元的现金和现金等价物，净现金头寸为6.59亿美元。</p><p>其次，在接下来的几个季度里，哔哩哔哩可能会实现可观的盈利增长，因为更高的用户货币化和成本优化开始成为优先事项。哔哩哔哩首席执行官兼董事长陈睿先生评论道:</p><blockquote>在第三季度，我们采取措施巩固业务基础，缩小亏损，同时继续为用户提供他们喜欢的产品和服务</blockquote><blockquote>…用户的参与度仍然很高，平均每天花在哔哩哔哩上的时间达到了96分钟的历史新高。虽然我们的社区仍然是我们长期成功的关键，但我们相信，保持适应日益具有挑战性的宏观环境至关重要。</blockquote><blockquote>…将盈利能力放在首位，我们将采取更多举措来加速我们的货币化，并实施成本控制措施，包括合理化员工计划和削减销售和营销费用，我们的目标是提高利润率，缩小亏损。</blockquote><p><b>估值：更新目标价格</b></p><p>在强劲的第三季度报告之后，我更新了BILI的剩余收益模型，以考虑到2025年的EPS升级。</p><p>与我之前的基本情况评估一致，我继续锚定9%的股权成本和3.28%的终端增长率(比预计的全球名义GDP增长率高出大约一个百分点)。</p><p>考虑到如下所示的EPS升级，我现在计算出合理的隐含股价为38.12美元，而之前为33.07美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e79ae806c0da9c9338aa265541ede5f\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>作者的EPS估计，作者的计算</p><p>这是更新后的灵敏度表。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/319b925bee8d7d70bc4db99f3d451ac1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>作者的EPS估计，作者的计算</p><p><b>风险</b></p><p>首先，国内的视频流媒体行业竞争激烈(抖音、快手、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>等)，理论上，视频流媒体行业呈现出赢家通吃的行业特征。虽然哔哩哔哩的用户粘性是所有平台中最高的，增长率也是最高的，但在这一点上，我对自己的能力没有信心。</p><p>其次，众所周知，哔哩哔哩受到了游戏行业的限制和监管，市场受到这些事态发展的惊吓，投资者应该预计哔哩哔哩的股价将出现相当大的波动。</p><p>第三个风险来自于潜在的ADR退市带来的持续压力。尽管投资者对一些积极的新闻标题表示赞赏，但潜在退市的风险增加了围绕哔哩哔哩投资的整体不确定性。</p><p><b>结论</b></p><p>自哔哩哔哩公布好于预期的第三季度业绩以来，该公司股价大幅上涨。</p><p>但在我看来，哔哩哔哩的涨势还有更长的路要走:我有信心相信，随着哔哩哔哩逐渐接近令人印象深刻的规模(CEO的MAU可能在2023年/ 2024年初达到4亿的里程碑)，内容库的扩张和用户粘性，对盈利能力的关注可能会维持价格的进一步升值。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>哔哩哔哩：资产负债表强劲，将实现可观的盈利增长？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n哔哩哔哩：资产负债表强劲，将实现可观的盈利增长？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">美股研究社 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-03-01 19:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>自公布好于预期的第三季度业绩和乐观的指引以来，股价上涨了约57%。</p><p>不过，尽管哔哩哔哩的估值最近有所扩大，但其股价仍较历史高点下跌了近90%。在我看来，哔哩哔哩的股价相对于该公司的商业潜力来说是便宜的。</p><p>在哔哩哔哩 9月份季度业绩强劲的背景下，管理层评论暗示将更加关注盈利能力，因此我提高了对哔哩哔哩到2025年的每股收益预期。我现在计算的基本目标价为38.12美元/股。</p><p>作为参考，哔哩哔哩今年迄今与标准普尔500指数(SPY)的表现差距仍然很大:BILI指数下跌了55%，而SPY指数“仅”下跌了15%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0685b2a738e299998baf65ba23cbdc6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"224\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><b>哔哩哔哩第三季度业绩</b></p><p><b>强大的业务拓展和参与度</b></p><p>在7月至9月底期间，哔哩哔哩的总收入为8.145亿美元，而去年同期约为7.34亿美元(同比增长11%)，分析师一致估计约为7.9亿美元(比预期高出2500万美元)。</p><p>值得注意的是，与2021年第三季度相比，哔哩哔哩的所有盈利支柱都实现了扩张(强调添加):</p><ul><li><p>移动游戏收入为15亿元人民币(2.068亿美元)，比2021年同期增长6%。</p></li></ul><ul><li><p>VAS收入为22亿元人民币(3.106亿美元)，较2021年同期增长16%。</p></li></ul><ul><li><p>广告收入为14亿元人民币(1.905亿美元)，较2021年同期增长16%。</p></li></ul><ul><li><p>电子商务和其他收入为7.578亿元人民币(1.065亿美元)，比2021年同期增长3%。</p></li></ul><p>总的来说，我认为哔哩哔哩收入的增长更多地是受到用户基础的强劲增长的支持，而不是推动更高的用户货币化。</p><p>截至2022年9月底，哔哩哔哩的月活跃用户(“MAU”)增加到3.326亿，比2021年同期增长25%。DAU达到9030万，分别增长25%。付费MAU为2850万(同比增长19%)。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89b585ae3279bdabeb6e8cea5f605e2e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>哔哩哔哩 Q3 2022年结果</p><p>哔哩哔哩的用户粘性仍然非常强劲:在2022年第三季度，每位用户每天在该平台上花费的平均时间为83分钟。此外，视频日均浏览量同比增长64%，达到37亿次。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45a41d72138725eac08a2a696b6dfda5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>哔哩哔哩 Q3 2022年结果</p><p><b>盈利能力仍处于亏损状态</b></p><p>2022年第三季度，哔哩哔哩的毛利润为1.482亿美元，与2021年同期相比仅增长4%。尽管哔哩哔哩的运营费用收缩至45.2%(2021年第三季度为51.4%)，但平台业务仍处于亏损状态——该期间的净亏损为2.412亿美元(比2021年第三季度缩小36%)。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc2772710097d4841b779236de06cd96\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>哔哩哔哩 Q3 2022年结果</p><p><b>预期盈利能力</b></p><p>不过，有两个理由可能会让投资者感到宽慰:</p><p>首先，哔哩哔哩的资产负债表依然强劲，有足够的弹性来吸收一些亏损。截至2022年9月底，该公司拥有33.65亿美元的现金和现金等价物，净现金头寸为6.59亿美元。</p><p>其次，在接下来的几个季度里，哔哩哔哩可能会实现可观的盈利增长，因为更高的用户货币化和成本优化开始成为优先事项。哔哩哔哩首席执行官兼董事长陈睿先生评论道:</p><blockquote>在第三季度，我们采取措施巩固业务基础，缩小亏损，同时继续为用户提供他们喜欢的产品和服务</blockquote><blockquote>…用户的参与度仍然很高，平均每天花在哔哩哔哩上的时间达到了96分钟的历史新高。虽然我们的社区仍然是我们长期成功的关键，但我们相信，保持适应日益具有挑战性的宏观环境至关重要。</blockquote><blockquote>…将盈利能力放在首位，我们将采取更多举措来加速我们的货币化，并实施成本控制措施，包括合理化员工计划和削减销售和营销费用，我们的目标是提高利润率，缩小亏损。</blockquote><p><b>估值：更新目标价格</b></p><p>在强劲的第三季度报告之后，我更新了BILI的剩余收益模型，以考虑到2025年的EPS升级。</p><p>与我之前的基本情况评估一致，我继续锚定9%的股权成本和3.28%的终端增长率(比预计的全球名义GDP增长率高出大约一个百分点)。</p><p>考虑到如下所示的EPS升级，我现在计算出合理的隐含股价为38.12美元，而之前为33.07美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e79ae806c0da9c9338aa265541ede5f\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>作者的EPS估计，作者的计算</p><p>这是更新后的灵敏度表。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/319b925bee8d7d70bc4db99f3d451ac1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>作者的EPS估计，作者的计算</p><p><b>风险</b></p><p>首先，国内的视频流媒体行业竞争激烈(抖音、快手、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>等)，理论上，视频流媒体行业呈现出赢家通吃的行业特征。虽然哔哩哔哩的用户粘性是所有平台中最高的，增长率也是最高的，但在这一点上，我对自己的能力没有信心。</p><p>其次，众所周知，哔哩哔哩受到了游戏行业的限制和监管，市场受到这些事态发展的惊吓，投资者应该预计哔哩哔哩的股价将出现相当大的波动。</p><p>第三个风险来自于潜在的ADR退市带来的持续压力。尽管投资者对一些积极的新闻标题表示赞赏，但潜在退市的风险增加了围绕哔哩哔哩投资的整体不确定性。</p><p><b>结论</b></p><p>自哔哩哔哩公布好于预期的第三季度业绩以来，该公司股价大幅上涨。</p><p>但在我看来，哔哩哔哩的涨势还有更长的路要走:我有信心相信，随着哔哩哔哩逐渐接近令人印象深刻的规模(CEO的MAU可能在2023年/ 2024年初达到4亿的里程碑)，内容库的扩张和用户粘性，对盈利能力的关注可能会维持价格的进一步升值。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/959e12dad805ef7134e41190825f878a","relate_stocks":{"BK4566":"资本集团","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BILI":"哔哩哔哩","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK1104":"互动家庭娱乐","BK4577":"网络游戏","SG9999001051.SGD":"United Asia Fund SGD","BK4588":"碎股","SG9999001093.SGD":"United Greater China Fund A Acc SGD","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4510":"在线教育","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4085":"互动家庭娱乐","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4563":"昨日强势股","09626":"哔哩哔哩-W","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4531":"中概回港概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184011300","content_text":"哔哩哔哩自公布好于预期的第三季度业绩和乐观的指引以来，股价上涨了约57%。不过，尽管哔哩哔哩的估值最近有所扩大，但其股价仍较历史高点下跌了近90%。在我看来，哔哩哔哩的股价相对于该公司的商业潜力来说是便宜的。在哔哩哔哩 9月份季度业绩强劲的背景下，管理层评论暗示将更加关注盈利能力，因此我提高了对哔哩哔哩到2025年的每股收益预期。我现在计算的基本目标价为38.12美元/股。作为参考，哔哩哔哩今年迄今与标准普尔500指数(SPY)的表现差距仍然很大:BILI指数下跌了55%，而SPY指数“仅”下跌了15%。Seeking Alpha哔哩哔哩第三季度业绩强大的业务拓展和参与度在7月至9月底期间，哔哩哔哩的总收入为8.145亿美元，而去年同期约为7.34亿美元(同比增长11%)，分析师一致估计约为7.9亿美元(比预期高出2500万美元)。值得注意的是，与2021年第三季度相比，哔哩哔哩的所有盈利支柱都实现了扩张(强调添加):移动游戏收入为15亿元人民币(2.068亿美元)，比2021年同期增长6%。VAS收入为22亿元人民币(3.106亿美元)，较2021年同期增长16%。广告收入为14亿元人民币(1.905亿美元)，较2021年同期增长16%。电子商务和其他收入为7.578亿元人民币(1.065亿美元)，比2021年同期增长3%。总的来说，我认为哔哩哔哩收入的增长更多地是受到用户基础的强劲增长的支持，而不是推动更高的用户货币化。截至2022年9月底，哔哩哔哩的月活跃用户(“MAU”)增加到3.326亿，比2021年同期增长25%。DAU达到9030万，分别增长25%。付费MAU为2850万(同比增长19%)。哔哩哔哩 Q3 2022年结果哔哩哔哩的用户粘性仍然非常强劲:在2022年第三季度，每位用户每天在该平台上花费的平均时间为83分钟。此外，视频日均浏览量同比增长64%，达到37亿次。哔哩哔哩 Q3 2022年结果盈利能力仍处于亏损状态2022年第三季度，哔哩哔哩的毛利润为1.482亿美元，与2021年同期相比仅增长4%。尽管哔哩哔哩的运营费用收缩至45.2%(2021年第三季度为51.4%)，但平台业务仍处于亏损状态——该期间的净亏损为2.412亿美元(比2021年第三季度缩小36%)。哔哩哔哩 Q3 2022年结果预期盈利能力不过，有两个理由可能会让投资者感到宽慰:首先，哔哩哔哩的资产负债表依然强劲，有足够的弹性来吸收一些亏损。截至2022年9月底，该公司拥有33.65亿美元的现金和现金等价物，净现金头寸为6.59亿美元。其次，在接下来的几个季度里，哔哩哔哩可能会实现可观的盈利增长，因为更高的用户货币化和成本优化开始成为优先事项。哔哩哔哩首席执行官兼董事长陈睿先生评论道:在第三季度，我们采取措施巩固业务基础，缩小亏损，同时继续为用户提供他们喜欢的产品和服务…用户的参与度仍然很高，平均每天花在哔哩哔哩上的时间达到了96分钟的历史新高。虽然我们的社区仍然是我们长期成功的关键，但我们相信，保持适应日益具有挑战性的宏观环境至关重要。…将盈利能力放在首位，我们将采取更多举措来加速我们的货币化，并实施成本控制措施，包括合理化员工计划和削减销售和营销费用，我们的目标是提高利润率，缩小亏损。估值：更新目标价格在强劲的第三季度报告之后，我更新了BILI的剩余收益模型，以考虑到2025年的EPS升级。与我之前的基本情况评估一致，我继续锚定9%的股权成本和3.28%的终端增长率(比预计的全球名义GDP增长率高出大约一个百分点)。考虑到如下所示的EPS升级，我现在计算出合理的隐含股价为38.12美元，而之前为33.07美元。作者的EPS估计，作者的计算这是更新后的灵敏度表。作者的EPS估计，作者的计算风险首先，国内的视频流媒体行业竞争激烈(抖音、快手、爱奇艺等)，理论上，视频流媒体行业呈现出赢家通吃的行业特征。虽然哔哩哔哩的用户粘性是所有平台中最高的，增长率也是最高的，但在这一点上，我对自己的能力没有信心。其次，众所周知，哔哩哔哩受到了游戏行业的限制和监管，市场受到这些事态发展的惊吓，投资者应该预计哔哩哔哩的股价将出现相当大的波动。第三个风险来自于潜在的ADR退市带来的持续压力。尽管投资者对一些积极的新闻标题表示赞赏，但潜在退市的风险增加了围绕哔哩哔哩投资的整体不确定性。结论自哔哩哔哩公布好于预期的第三季度业绩以来，该公司股价大幅上涨。但在我看来，哔哩哔哩的涨势还有更长的路要走:我有信心相信，随着哔哩哔哩逐渐接近令人印象深刻的规模(CEO的MAU可能在2023年/ 2024年初达到4亿的里程碑)，内容库的扩张和用户粘性，对盈利能力的关注可能会维持价格的进一步升值。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}