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迎来政策拐点","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133081061","media":"金十数据","summary":"他们将在通胀被击败之前放弃收紧政策。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>鲁比尼预测,结果将迎来1970年代与全球金融危机最严重的后果相叠加的时期...</blockquote><p>希望美联储停止加息的投资者,将这种政策转变称为“拐点”。而“末日博士”鲁比尼则称其为“临阵退缩”。</p><p>接受采访时,<b>鲁比尼表示,加息对市场和经济造成的痛苦,对各国央行来说将难以承受,因此他们将在通胀被击败之前放弃收紧政策。</b></p><p>鲁比尼曾在2008年准确预测金融危机的到来,并且因其对全球经济的长期看跌观点而获得“末日博士”的绰号。2020年5月,他曾警告说,供应冲击和激进宽松的结合,将导致经济复苏伴随高通胀——这一观点后来成为主流叙事。</p><p>现在,鲁比尼的观点越来越坚定,即<b>随着各国央行努力控制通胀预期,世界将陷入滞胀,最终将在金融市场崩溃时目瞪口呆。</b>他指出,今年股市下跌超过20%、私募股权出现重负、美国房地产降温,企业此前凭借低利率积累债务的信贷市场表现低迷。鲁比尼表示,</p><blockquote>“即使是高评级的债券,利率也是你多年来从未见过的(那么高)……而这仅仅是痛苦的开始,真正的痛苦还没到来。一个重要的金融机构可能会在全球范围内崩溃,也许不是美国的机构,但肯定是在全球范围内崩溃。有几家公司是庞大而系统性的,它们可能会崩溃,引发另一个雷曼效应,届时美联储将不得不停止收紧。面临严重的经济衰退和金融市场的冲击,他们肯定会临阵退缩。”</blockquote><p>但即使是这种性质的深度衰退也不足以抑制通胀,这是因为负面供应冲击的持续影响。</p><p>“通胀下降的速度不会足够快,因为受到负面的供应冲击,”鲁比尼解释说。“请记住,当遇到负面供应冲击时,经济会陷入衰退和高通胀,”</p><p>鲁比尼说,<b>“我们不会看到通胀下降到2%。”</b></p><p><b>鲁比尼预测,结果将迎来1970年代与全球金融危机最严重的后果相叠加的时期。</b>虽然鲁比尼认为通胀归因于供应压力,而这可能会在短期内缓解,但是除此之外,他还看到了更大、周而复始的结构性障碍,包括疫情、俄乌冲突、去全球化、人口老龄化、移民限制、网络战、民粹主义政治、工会力量的上升以及气候变化等。<b>这些障碍将降低经济的潜在增速,并在未来几年内使得物价保持高位。</b></p><p>根据鲁比尼的说法,即将到来的另一个重大变化是,<b>在对俄罗斯实施制裁后,全世界都在采取更积极的措施来减少使用美元。</b>瑞士信贷公司策略师佐尔坦·波扎尔(Zoltan Pozsar)和桥水基金创始人雷·达里奥(Ray Dalio)也有类似的观点。</p><p>近期,英国政府的迷你预算扰乱了英国国债市场、导致养老基金面临崩盘,英国央行不得不推迟了缩表、出售国债的计划,甚至重新购债、扩大资产负债表。鲁比尼表示,</p><blockquote>“第一个例子正是英国央行。面对金融冲击,他们怎么做呢?他们临阵脱逃,重回MMT(现代货币理论)。这种做法将会变得更加广泛……我不相信央行所说的'我们将不惜一切代价对抗通胀',因为他们误以为能够达成软着陆,误以为就算硬着陆也只是短期和浅层的——妄想出现两个季度萎缩后,能够重回增长和宽松。这不会实现的。情况会变得糟糕,出现经济衰退、金融危机。”</blockquote><p>鲁比尼表示,现在的情况比1970年代的高通胀还严重,部分原因是<b>发达国家的高债务水平</b>。<b>政府和企业的债务高企,随着利率飙升,他们可能无法偿还或不得不将债务展期。</b></p><blockquote>“在70年代,我们经历了两次滞胀冲击,通胀和衰退并存……但当时发达经济体的私营和公共部门债务占GDP比重仅为100%。全球金融危机伴随债务危机之后——抵押贷款、住房、银行债务——我们出现了通缩,因为那是一次负面的总需求冲击和信贷紧缩。因此,当时才能根据需要放宽货币和财政政策。而今天,我们的债务占全球GDP的比重为350%,发达经济体债务占GDP的420%。”</blockquote><p>在他看来,我们正在目睹主流政治的崩溃,因为黯淡的经济环境与左右翼民粹主义政治的兴起交织在一起。</p><p><b>“就社会和政治压力而言,我们已经面临一个真实存在的定时炸弹,”</b>鲁比尼说。“经济危机、金融危机和地缘政治危机将使这些事情变得更糟。”</p></body></html>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“末日博士”鲁比尼:美联储将“临阵退缩” 迎来政策拐点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-20 17:41 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/101601><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>鲁比尼预测,结果将迎来1970年代与全球金融危机最严重的后果相叠加的时期...希望美联储停止加息的投资者,将这种政策转变称为“拐点”。而“末日博士”鲁比尼则称其为“临阵退缩”。接受采访时,鲁比尼表示,加息对市场和经济造成的痛苦,对各国央行来说将难以承受,因此他们将在通胀被击败之前放弃收紧政策。鲁比尼曾在2008年准确预测金融危机的到来,并且因其对全球经济的长期看跌观点而获得“末日博士”的绰号。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/101601\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/101601","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133081061","content_text":"鲁比尼预测,结果将迎来1970年代与全球金融危机最严重的后果相叠加的时期...希望美联储停止加息的投资者,将这种政策转变称为“拐点”。而“末日博士”鲁比尼则称其为“临阵退缩”。接受采访时,鲁比尼表示,加息对市场和经济造成的痛苦,对各国央行来说将难以承受,因此他们将在通胀被击败之前放弃收紧政策。鲁比尼曾在2008年准确预测金融危机的到来,并且因其对全球经济的长期看跌观点而获得“末日博士”的绰号。2020年5月,他曾警告说,供应冲击和激进宽松的结合,将导致经济复苏伴随高通胀——这一观点后来成为主流叙事。现在,鲁比尼的观点越来越坚定,即随着各国央行努力控制通胀预期,世界将陷入滞胀,最终将在金融市场崩溃时目瞪口呆。他指出,今年股市下跌超过20%、私募股权出现重负、美国房地产降温,企业此前凭借低利率积累债务的信贷市场表现低迷。鲁比尼表示,“即使是高评级的债券,利率也是你多年来从未见过的(那么高)……而这仅仅是痛苦的开始,真正的痛苦还没到来。一个重要的金融机构可能会在全球范围内崩溃,也许不是美国的机构,但肯定是在全球范围内崩溃。有几家公司是庞大而系统性的,它们可能会崩溃,引发另一个雷曼效应,届时美联储将不得不停止收紧。面临严重的经济衰退和金融市场的冲击,他们肯定会临阵退缩。”但即使是这种性质的深度衰退也不足以抑制通胀,这是因为负面供应冲击的持续影响。“通胀下降的速度不会足够快,因为受到负面的供应冲击,”鲁比尼解释说。“请记住,当遇到负面供应冲击时,经济会陷入衰退和高通胀,”鲁比尼说,“我们不会看到通胀下降到2%。”鲁比尼预测,结果将迎来1970年代与全球金融危机最严重的后果相叠加的时期。虽然鲁比尼认为通胀归因于供应压力,而这可能会在短期内缓解,但是除此之外,他还看到了更大、周而复始的结构性障碍,包括疫情、俄乌冲突、去全球化、人口老龄化、移民限制、网络战、民粹主义政治、工会力量的上升以及气候变化等。这些障碍将降低经济的潜在增速,并在未来几年内使得物价保持高位。根据鲁比尼的说法,即将到来的另一个重大变化是,在对俄罗斯实施制裁后,全世界都在采取更积极的措施来减少使用美元。瑞士信贷公司策略师佐尔坦·波扎尔(Zoltan Pozsar)和桥水基金创始人雷·达里奥(Ray Dalio)也有类似的观点。近期,英国政府的迷你预算扰乱了英国国债市场、导致养老基金面临崩盘,英国央行不得不推迟了缩表、出售国债的计划,甚至重新购债、扩大资产负债表。鲁比尼表示,“第一个例子正是英国央行。面对金融冲击,他们怎么做呢?他们临阵脱逃,重回MMT(现代货币理论)。这种做法将会变得更加广泛……我不相信央行所说的'我们将不惜一切代价对抗通胀',因为他们误以为能够达成软着陆,误以为就算硬着陆也只是短期和浅层的——妄想出现两个季度萎缩后,能够重回增长和宽松。这不会实现的。情况会变得糟糕,出现经济衰退、金融危机。”鲁比尼表示,现在的情况比1970年代的高通胀还严重,部分原因是发达国家的高债务水平。政府和企业的债务高企,随着利率飙升,他们可能无法偿还或不得不将债务展期。“在70年代,我们经历了两次滞胀冲击,通胀和衰退并存……但当时发达经济体的私营和公共部门债务占GDP比重仅为100%。全球金融危机伴随债务危机之后——抵押贷款、住房、银行债务——我们出现了通缩,因为那是一次负面的总需求冲击和信贷紧缩。因此,当时才能根据需要放宽货币和财政政策。而今天,我们的债务占全球GDP的比重为350%,发达经济体债务占GDP的420%。”在他看来,我们正在目睹主流政治的崩溃,因为黯淡的经济环境与左右翼民粹主义政治的兴起交织在一起。“就社会和政治压力而言,我们已经面临一个真实存在的定时炸弹,”鲁比尼说。“经济危机、金融危机和地缘政治危机将使这些事情变得更糟。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":662160657,"gmtCreate":1666261855579,"gmtModify":1666262937543,"author":{"id":"3472771415224821","authorId":"3472771415224821","name":"沙漠胡杨","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/662160657","repostId":"1133081061","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}