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阿明8803

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2023-10-07

写的什么狗屁玩意，感觉前后矛盾

今晚非农有多重要？可能决定美联储11月是否加息

2019-05-17

$微博(WB)$ 看跌期权卖早了，真应该拿住啊[捂脸]

2019-05-09

$微博(WB)$ 微博不会让我失望

2019-04-25

$微软(MSFT)$ 还能不能握住

2018-08-23

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 论新闻的矛盾

2018-07-30

$微软(MSFT)$ 小白第一次期权

2018-07-18

$好未来(TAL)$ 站了一个月的岗，终于当家作主人了😂

2018-06-26

$微博(WB)$ 微博是怎么了，为何跌那么狠

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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tText":"写的什么狗屁玩意，感觉前后矛盾","text":"写的什么狗屁玩意，感觉前后矛盾","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/227746433298552","repostId":"1161421779","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1161421779","pubTimestamp":1696584847,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161421779?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-10-06 17:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"今晚非农有多重要？可能决定美联储11月是否加息","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161421779","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"数据疲弱或“就业非常糟糕”的迹象可能有助于将美债收益率从十六年高位拉下来。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者：王眉</p><p>近两日，十年期美债收益率飙升势头暂歇，但下一步是继续飙升还是掉头转下，要看今晚的非农了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">北京时间周五（10月6日）20：30，美国劳工统计局将公布美国9月非农就业人口变动及失业率等数据。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据彭博社调查中值，<strong>经济学家普遍预计，美国就业增长将继续放缓：</strong></p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>预计9月非农就业人数将增加17万人，低于8月的18.7万个；</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>失业率将从8月的3.8%小幅降至3.7%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">时薪环比增长0.3%，高于8月的0.2%；时薪同比增长4.3%，与8月持平，继续维持在较高水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">劳动力参与率保持在62.8%不变；</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">平均每周工作时间保持在34.3小时不变。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">9月就业报告出炉之际，正值市场面临一个关键时刻。由于美债收益率上升以及对利率长期保持高位的担忧，股市大幅下挫。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>一些华尔街策略师表示，如果今晚非农报告保持强劲，可能会加剧债市的跌势，因为这将突显经济的韧性，从而推高收益率；另一方面，数据疲弱或“就业非常糟糕”的迹象可能有助于将美债收益率从十六年高位拉下来。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">主要投行对9月新增非农人数的预测依旧分歧巨大，包括摩根士丹利在内的22家大型投行最低预测15万，最高预测24万；失业率预测差距也较大，最低预测3.6%，最高预测3.9%；时薪同比增速的预期值相差不大。具体如下：</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2e5e6f3e8e2eb696a9ea9b2f524edc1\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"498\" tg-height=\"611\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1517760174\">其他就业前瞻指标显示劳动力市场出现放缓迹象，但仍具韧性</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周二，美国劳工部报告显示，8月的JOLTS职位空缺环比增加70万个，至961万个，高于普遍预期的881.5万人，并且前值从882.7万人上修至892万，凸显了劳动力市场的韧性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周三，有“小非农”之称的美国ADP就业报告显示，9月美国私营部门就业人数经季节性调整后仅增加了8.9万人，为2021年初以来最少，放缓速度远超市场预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在ADP数据公布后，CME“美联储观察”显示，美联储11月维持利率在5.25%-5.50%区间不变的概率为81.3%，加息25个基点至5.50%-5.75%区间的概率为18.7%。到12月维持利率不变的概率为64.3%，累计加息25个基点概率为31.8%，累计加息50个基点概率为3.9%。互换合约也显示美联储再度加息的可能性下降。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周四公布的美国上周首次申请失业救济人数为20.7万人，和前一周修正后首次申请失业救济金的人数相比增加2000人，但较市场预期人数低3000，仍处于历史低位附近，体现劳动力市场韧性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，美国9月ISM制造业就业分项指数出现显著跳升，自5月报告发布以来首次重返扩张区间。与此同时，ISM服务业就业分项指数从54.7降至53.4，仍处于扩张区间，增速略低于8月份。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">截至目前，CME“美联储观察”显示，美联储11月维持利率不变的概率为81.5%，加息25个基点的概率为18.5%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1a30b4c24a5398a28d557b6b5481362\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_919214314\">罢工会对9月非农产生重大影响吗？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近段时间，美国工人罢工潮此起彼伏。此前分析称，罢工可能导致美国就业人数增长暂时为负，并增加短期价格压力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">8月份，工人罢工和卡车运输巨头Yellow破产使得非农就业人数减少了大约5万人。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，有分析指出，在今晚的报告中，大多数投行并不认为这些因素会对9月非农就业人数的增长产生影响，因为好莱坞的罢工在调查周期间仍在进行，而美国汽车工人联合会的罢工是在调查周开始后开始的，<strong>因此对就业人数的打击要到10月份才会出现。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">事实上，<strong>两场规模较小的罢工的结束</strong>（美国机械工人联合会以及密歇根大学的3.7万名工人结束罢工）<strong>，还将适度促进就业增长。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过需要警惕的是，如果罢工超预期持续更长时间，美联储9月之后的政策天平或倾向于再加息一次。</p><h2 id=\"id_1300848194\">今晚数据或将决定美联储11月是否加息</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">随着美国通胀明显下行，人们越来越关注劳动力市场。在美联储加息的情况下，劳动力市场表现出了惊人的弹性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">9月20日，美联储主席鲍威尔指出，劳动力市场仍需要“一些疲软”，以保持通胀率降至美联储2%的目标。鲍威尔警告说，如果这种情况不能持续下去，美联储可能会再次加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有分析称，美联储最新公布的点阵图暗示，预计今年还会加息一次，但市场正倾向于这种预期，预计到年底只会再加息10个基点。<strong>如果美联储决定再次加息，问题在于是在11月还是12月，但他们可能会让数据来做出决定。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>如果就业报告比预期更热，美联储和市场定价可能倾向于11月加息，但如果报告较冷，则可能继续暂停加息。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)首席美国经济学家Nancy Vanden Houten在一份研究报告中写道：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“我们预计9月份的就业报告将显示，上月就业增长略有放缓，<strong>但这不足以消除11月1日联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上加息的风险。</strong>”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“我们确实预计劳动力市场将在今年晚些时候走弱，因为在利率上升、贷款标准收紧和消费者支出减少的影响下，经济增长将放缓。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">安永高级经济学家Lydia Boussour周二在一份研究报告中写道：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“民间部门就业增长放缓，薪资增长放缓，以及近期核心通胀放缓，应足以让美联储在11月维持暂停加息，不过决策者可能会维持鹰派立场，并重申在更长时间内维持加息的政策方式。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">也有分析认为，非农就业报告只是美联储关注的一部分，<strong>CPI和PCE物价指数也将在11月会议前公布，凭着鲍威尔“谨慎行事”的作风，我们更有必要保持耐心，并等待12月有更多数据可用时重新评估。</strong></p></body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>今晚非农有多重要？可能决定美联储11月是否加息</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n今晚非农有多重要？可能决定美联储11月是否加息\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-10-06 17:34 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3699061><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：王眉近两日，十年期美债收益率飙升势头暂歇，但下一步是继续飙升还是掉头转下，要看今晚的非农了。北京时间周五（10月6日）20：30，美国劳工统计局将公布美国9月非农就业人口变动及失业率等数据。据彭博社调查中值，经济学家普遍预计，美国就业增长将继续放缓：预计9月非农就业人数将增加17万人，低于8月的18.7万个；失业率将从8月的3.8%小幅降至3.7%。时薪环比增长0.3%，高于8月的0.2%；...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3699061\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f866f5d880ac7442ed06621cdcccdbfd","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3699061","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1161421779","content_text":"作者：王眉近两日，十年期美债收益率飙升势头暂歇，但下一步是继续飙升还是掉头转下，要看今晚的非农了。北京时间周五（10月6日）20：30，美国劳工统计局将公布美国9月非农就业人口变动及失业率等数据。据彭博社调查中值，经济学家普遍预计，美国就业增长将继续放缓：预计9月非农就业人数将增加17万人，低于8月的18.7万个；失业率将从8月的3.8%小幅降至3.7%。时薪环比增长0.3%，高于8月的0.2%；时薪同比增长4.3%，与8月持平，继续维持在较高水平。劳动力参与率保持在62.8%不变；平均每周工作时间保持在34.3小时不变。9月就业报告出炉之际，正值市场面临一个关键时刻。由于美债收益率上升以及对利率长期保持高位的担忧，股市大幅下挫。一些华尔街策略师表示，如果今晚非农报告保持强劲，可能会加剧债市的跌势，因为这将突显经济的韧性，从而推高收益率；另一方面，数据疲弱或“就业非常糟糕”的迹象可能有助于将美债收益率从十六年高位拉下来。主要投行对9月新增非农人数的预测依旧分歧巨大，包括摩根士丹利在内的22家大型投行最低预测15万，最高预测24万；失业率预测差距也较大，最低预测3.6%，最高预测3.9%；时薪同比增速的预期值相差不大。具体如下：其他就业前瞻指标显示劳动力市场出现放缓迹象，但仍具韧性周二，美国劳工部报告显示，8月的JOLTS职位空缺环比增加70万个，至961万个，高于普遍预期的881.5万人，并且前值从882.7万人上修至892万，凸显了劳动力市场的韧性。周三，有“小非农”之称的美国ADP就业报告显示，9月美国私营部门就业人数经季节性调整后仅增加了8.9万人，为2021年初以来最少，放缓速度远超市场预期。在ADP数据公布后，CME“美联储观察”显示，美联储11月维持利率在5.25%-5.50%区间不变的概率为81.3%，加息25个基点至5.50%-5.75%区间的概率为18.7%。到12月维持利率不变的概率为64.3%，累计加息25个基点概率为31.8%，累计加息50个基点概率为3.9%。互换合约也显示美联储再度加息的可能性下降。周四公布的美国上周首次申请失业救济人数为20.7万人，和前一周修正后首次申请失业救济金的人数相比增加2000人，但较市场预期人数低3000，仍处于历史低位附近，体现劳动力市场韧性。此外，美国9月ISM制造业就业分项指数出现显著跳升，自5月报告发布以来首次重返扩张区间。与此同时，ISM服务业就业分项指数从54.7降至53.4，仍处于扩张区间，增速略低于8月份。截至目前，CME“美联储观察”显示，美联储11月维持利率不变的概率为81.5%，加息25个基点的概率为18.5%。罢工会对9月非农产生重大影响吗？近段时间，美国工人罢工潮此起彼伏。此前分析称，罢工可能导致美国就业人数增长暂时为负，并增加短期价格压力。8月份，工人罢工和卡车运输巨头Yellow破产使得非农就业人数减少了大约5万人。不过，有分析指出，在今晚的报告中，大多数投行并不认为这些因素会对9月非农就业人数的增长产生影响，因为好莱坞的罢工在调查周期间仍在进行，而美国汽车工人联合会的罢工是在调查周开始后开始的，因此对就业人数的打击要到10月份才会出现。事实上，两场规模较小的罢工的结束（美国机械工人联合会以及密歇根大学的3.7万名工人结束罢工），还将适度促进就业增长。不过需要警惕的是，如果罢工超预期持续更长时间，美联储9月之后的政策天平或倾向于再加息一次。今晚数据或将决定美联储11月是否加息随着美国通胀明显下行，人们越来越关注劳动力市场。在美联储加息的情况下，劳动力市场表现出了惊人的弹性。9月20日，美联储主席鲍威尔指出，劳动力市场仍需要“一些疲软”，以保持通胀率降至美联储2%的目标。鲍威尔警告说，如果这种情况不能持续下去，美联储可能会再次加息。有分析称，美联储最新公布的点阵图暗示，预计今年还会加息一次，但市场正倾向于这种预期，预计到年底只会再加息10个基点。如果美联储决定再次加息，问题在于是在11月还是12月，但他们可能会让数据来做出决定。如果就业报告比预期更热，美联储和市场定价可能倾向于11月加息，但如果报告较冷，则可能继续暂停加息。牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)首席美国经济学家Nancy Vanden Houten在一份研究报告中写道：“我们预计9月份的就业报告将显示，上月就业增长略有放缓，但这不足以消除11月1日联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上加息的风险。”“我们确实预计劳动力市场将在今年晚些时候走弱，因为在利率上升、贷款标准收紧和消费者支出减少的影响下，经济增长将放缓。”安永高级经济学家Lydia Boussour周二在一份研究报告中写道：“民间部门就业增长放缓，薪资增长放缓，以及近期核心通胀放缓，应足以让美联储在11月维持暂停加息，不过决策者可能会维持鹰派立场，并重申在更长时间内维持加息的政策方式。”也有分析认为，非农就业报告只是美联储关注的一部分，CPI和PCE物价指数也将在11月会议前公布，凭着鲍威尔“谨慎行事”的作风，我们更有必要保持耐心，并等待12月有更多数据可用时重新评估。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":908884536,"gmtCreate":1558106291325,"gmtModify":1704695966620,"author":{"id":"3472730358693598","authorId":"3472730358693598","name":"阿明8803","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3472730358693598","authorIdStr":"3472730358693598"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$微博(WB)$ 看跌期权卖早了，真应该拿住啊[捂脸]","listText":"$微博(WB)$ 看跌期权卖早了，真应该拿住啊[捂脸]","text":"$微博(WB)$ 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