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IP属地:浙江
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冲浪选手
2022-05-03
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
坐稳待涨[微笑]
冲浪选手
2022-04-26
$TSLA 20220506 1010.0 PUT$
等了好久,终于来了
冲浪选手
2022-04-01
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
中国考虑给予美国获取多数大公司审计底稿的权限
冲浪选手
2022-02-12
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
还没结束
冲浪选手
2022-01-27
$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$
前几个月随手买了一点测试一下,想不到几个月后就....
冲浪选手
2022-01-26
$TSLA 20220128 885.0 CALL$
该来的终究会来
冲浪选手
2022-01-25
$TSLA 20220128 885.0 CALL$
明天起飞
冲浪选手
2022-01-21
$TSLA 20220121 1000.0 PUT$
今晚清仓大处理
冲浪选手
2022-01-21
$TSLA 20220121 1000.0 PUT$
今晚太刺激了
冲浪选手
2022-01-20
$TSLA 20220121 1040.0 PUT$
要开始了
冲浪选手
2022-01-20
$TSLA 20220128 1145.0 CALL$
短期1000即将成为历史
冲浪选手
2022-01-14
$TSLA 20220121 1065.0 PUT$
看样子要到1000以下了
冲浪选手
2022-01-14
$TSLA 20220128 1145.0 CALL$
恐慌快来了
冲浪选手
2022-01-12
$TSLA 20220121 1050.0 CALL$
冲
冲浪选手
2022-01-10
$TSLA 20220114 1030.0 PUT$
消除恐惧的最好方法就是面对恐惧
冲浪选手
2022-01-09
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@财经十一人:2022:关键之年
冲浪选手
2022-01-07
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
今天就不交易了,空仓观察一下
冲浪选手
2022-01-06
$TSLA 20220107 1100.0 PUT$
继续调整
冲浪选手
2022-01-06
$TSLA 20220107 1100.0 PUT$
很多人醒了之后会大吃一惊
冲浪选手
2022-01-05
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@Ivan_甘灿荣:2022前瞻(一):当心今年全球共振,大调整还是有可能的
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20220121 1040.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20220121 1040.0 PUT$ </a>要开始了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20220121 1040.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20220121 1040.0 PUT$ </a>要开始了","text":"$TSLA 20220121 1040.0 PUT$ 要开始了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053e55906e0594cce78bf57a911ac3e9","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630033570","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630008139,"gmtCreate":1642609755528,"gmtModify":1642609755528,"author":{"id":"3469100938966869","authorId":"3469100938966869","authorIdStr":"3469100938966869","name":"冲浪选手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ff1f6e925a58516e4decfbc1fc05628","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20220121 1065.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20220121 1065.0 PUT$ </a>看样子要到1000以下了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20220121 1065.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20220121 1065.0 PUT$ </a>看样子要到1000以下了","text":"$TSLA 20220121 1065.0 PUT$ 看样子要到1000以下了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9e46d0f656c465ab855878a522d2803","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694704374","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":694472667,"gmtCreate":1642094598640,"gmtModify":1642094598640,"author":{"id":"3469100938966869","authorId":"3469100938966869","authorIdStr":"3469100938966869","name":"冲浪选手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ff1f6e925a58516e4decfbc1fc05628","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20220128 1145.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20220128 1145.0 CALL$ </a>恐慌快来了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20220128 1145.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20220128 1145.0 CALL$ </a>恐慌快来了","text":"$TSLA 20220128 1145.0 CALL$ 恐慌快来了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1da7ca1bec9e92d21bb001acd4dcd840","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694472667","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":694227042,"gmtCreate":1642000144791,"gmtModify":1642000144791,"author":{"id":"3469100938966869","authorId":"3469100938966869","authorIdStr":"3469100938966869","name":"冲浪选手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ff1f6e925a58516e4decfbc1fc05628","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20220121 1050.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20220121 1050.0 CALL$ </a>冲","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20220121 1050.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20220121 1050.0 CALL$ </a>冲","text":"$TSLA 20220121 1050.0 CALL$ 冲","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4b8c2cbda0c81d0ca1a4b8936770921","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694227042","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":694321750,"gmtCreate":1641825273790,"gmtModify":1641825273790,"author":{"id":"3469100938966869","authorId":"3469100938966869","authorIdStr":"3469100938966869","name":"冲浪选手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ff1f6e925a58516e4decfbc1fc05628","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20220114 1030.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20220114 1030.0 PUT$ </a>消除恐惧的最好方法就是面对恐惧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20220114 1030.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20220114 1030.0 PUT$ </a>消除恐惧的最好方法就是面对恐惧","text":"$TSLA 20220114 1030.0 PUT$ 消除恐惧的最好方法就是面对恐惧","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180064511ab8168ea79b7be25bf5de4","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694321750","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":296,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":694015060,"gmtCreate":1641695473803,"gmtModify":1641695473803,"author":{"id":"3469100938966869","authorId":"3469100938966869","authorIdStr":"3469100938966869","name":"冲浪选手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ff1f6e925a58516e4decfbc1fc05628","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694015060","repostId":"695747182","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":695747182,"gmtCreate":1641630240000,"gmtModify":1641635739716,"author":{"id":"9000000000000092","authorId":"9000000000000092","authorIdStr":"9000000000000092","name":"财经十一人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"2022:关键之年","htmlText":"文|清和 智本社社长 2021年,感觉非常漫长与疯狂。 2022年,刚刚开始,哈国的枪声,预示着新的一年充满着不确定性与挑战。 新冠病毒肆虐两年,这场疫情改变了这个世界,加剧了全球不均衡的矛盾和金融的脆弱性。今年,猖蹶的奥密克戎将加剧疫情还是终结大流行?美联储的紧缩政策将抑制泡沫还是刺穿泡沫?新兴国家是否再度爆发债务危机?我们该如何操作? 本文为“国运”系列第四篇,总结去年展望新年。 本文逻辑 一、大疫思潮 二、大疫风险 三、大疫出路 大疫思潮 2021年,社会思潮郁勃。 大疫之年,全球相互隔离,经济稳定器动摇,世界向左,虎掷龙拿,噪音扰人,史称“大疫思潮”。 每当经济下行,人们对经济安全的焦虑和财富均等的诉求就更加强烈。上个世纪六七十年代,美国掀起了一股股平权浪潮,思想市场非常活跃。普通大众夺取了精英控制的舆论话语权,美国左派阵营控制了几乎所有的纸媒以及后来的网媒,而知识分子在舆论市场上消失了。知识分子为何消失? 在大众传媒时代,尽管真理不由声音大小来决定,但嘈杂的群众声浪还是迫使知识分子退避三舍。另外,当时知识经济崛起,知识分工创造了大量的专业岗位,知识分子从公共舆论市场中退出,进入高校、大型企业、研究院、政府系统成为了职业化的学者,如经济学家、科学家等。经济学家认为,知识分子在舆论市场的消失是一种“劣币驱逐良币现象”。最后,煽动家、声如洪钟者、“超级明星”、仁爱无知的文学家站在舞台中央,传播着错误的有害的信息。眼看着谬误满天飞,曾经的知识分子如今过得舒服的学者不再站出来发声。 舆论市场为何会“失灵”? 干预主义是舆论市场失灵的关键。但是,在新闻自由的美国,舆论市场的自由竞争怎么会驱逐良币?这是因为信息具有外部性,信息产权不够明晰,价格机制不充分,难以明确奖励与惩罚。在舆论市场上,一个人发出的言论对应的边际收益与边际风险是不够明确、不够及时。 舆论市场的“劣币驱逐良币","listText":"文|清和 智本社社长 2021年,感觉非常漫长与疯狂。 2022年,刚刚开始,哈国的枪声,预示着新的一年充满着不确定性与挑战。 新冠病毒肆虐两年,这场疫情改变了这个世界,加剧了全球不均衡的矛盾和金融的脆弱性。今年,猖蹶的奥密克戎将加剧疫情还是终结大流行?美联储的紧缩政策将抑制泡沫还是刺穿泡沫?新兴国家是否再度爆发债务危机?我们该如何操作? 本文为“国运”系列第四篇,总结去年展望新年。 本文逻辑 一、大疫思潮 二、大疫风险 三、大疫出路 大疫思潮 2021年,社会思潮郁勃。 大疫之年,全球相互隔离,经济稳定器动摇,世界向左,虎掷龙拿,噪音扰人,史称“大疫思潮”。 每当经济下行,人们对经济安全的焦虑和财富均等的诉求就更加强烈。上个世纪六七十年代,美国掀起了一股股平权浪潮,思想市场非常活跃。普通大众夺取了精英控制的舆论话语权,美国左派阵营控制了几乎所有的纸媒以及后来的网媒,而知识分子在舆论市场上消失了。知识分子为何消失? 在大众传媒时代,尽管真理不由声音大小来决定,但嘈杂的群众声浪还是迫使知识分子退避三舍。另外,当时知识经济崛起,知识分工创造了大量的专业岗位,知识分子从公共舆论市场中退出,进入高校、大型企业、研究院、政府系统成为了职业化的学者,如经济学家、科学家等。经济学家认为,知识分子在舆论市场的消失是一种“劣币驱逐良币现象”。最后,煽动家、声如洪钟者、“超级明星”、仁爱无知的文学家站在舞台中央,传播着错误的有害的信息。眼看着谬误满天飞,曾经的知识分子如今过得舒服的学者不再站出来发声。 舆论市场为何会“失灵”? 干预主义是舆论市场失灵的关键。但是,在新闻自由的美国,舆论市场的自由竞争怎么会驱逐良币?这是因为信息具有外部性,信息产权不够明晰,价格机制不充分,难以明确奖励与惩罚。在舆论市场上,一个人发出的言论对应的边际收益与边际风险是不够明确、不够及时。 舆论市场的“劣币驱逐良币","text":"文|清和 智本社社长 2021年,感觉非常漫长与疯狂。 2022年,刚刚开始,哈国的枪声,预示着新的一年充满着不确定性与挑战。 新冠病毒肆虐两年,这场疫情改变了这个世界,加剧了全球不均衡的矛盾和金融的脆弱性。今年,猖蹶的奥密克戎将加剧疫情还是终结大流行?美联储的紧缩政策将抑制泡沫还是刺穿泡沫?新兴国家是否再度爆发债务危机?我们该如何操作? 本文为“国运”系列第四篇,总结去年展望新年。 本文逻辑 一、大疫思潮 二、大疫风险 三、大疫出路 大疫思潮 2021年,社会思潮郁勃。 大疫之年,全球相互隔离,经济稳定器动摇,世界向左,虎掷龙拿,噪音扰人,史称“大疫思潮”。 每当经济下行,人们对经济安全的焦虑和财富均等的诉求就更加强烈。上个世纪六七十年代,美国掀起了一股股平权浪潮,思想市场非常活跃。普通大众夺取了精英控制的舆论话语权,美国左派阵营控制了几乎所有的纸媒以及后来的网媒,而知识分子在舆论市场上消失了。知识分子为何消失? 在大众传媒时代,尽管真理不由声音大小来决定,但嘈杂的群众声浪还是迫使知识分子退避三舍。另外,当时知识经济崛起,知识分工创造了大量的专业岗位,知识分子从公共舆论市场中退出,进入高校、大型企业、研究院、政府系统成为了职业化的学者,如经济学家、科学家等。经济学家认为,知识分子在舆论市场的消失是一种“劣币驱逐良币现象”。最后,煽动家、声如洪钟者、“超级明星”、仁爱无知的文学家站在舞台中央,传播着错误的有害的信息。眼看着谬误满天飞,曾经的知识分子如今过得舒服的学者不再站出来发声。 舆论市场为何会“失灵”? 干预主义是舆论市场失灵的关键。但是,在新闻自由的美国,舆论市场的自由竞争怎么会驱逐良币?这是因为信息具有外部性,信息产权不够明晰,价格机制不充分,难以明确奖励与惩罚。在舆论市场上,一个人发出的言论对应的边际收益与边际风险是不够明确、不够及时。 舆论市场的“劣币驱逐良币","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66bbd25a834048e88ac411c4fcd65c1e","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842c90d15bdd49bfb91008aa67518488","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d81ab1a426448fba22e3b1d59a729f","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/695747182","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":695451110,"gmtCreate":1641557163013,"gmtModify":1641557163013,"author":{"id":"3469100938966869","authorId":"3469100938966869","authorIdStr":"3469100938966869","name":"冲浪选手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ff1f6e925a58516e4decfbc1fc05628","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>今天就不交易了,空仓观察一下","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>今天就不交易了,空仓观察一下","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$今天就不交易了,空仓观察一下","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/695451110","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":695252262,"gmtCreate":1641481544001,"gmtModify":1641481544001,"author":{"id":"3469100938966869","authorId":"3469100938966869","authorIdStr":"3469100938966869","name":"冲浪选手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ff1f6e925a58516e4decfbc1fc05628","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20220107 1100.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20220107 1100.0 PUT$ </a>继续调整","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20220107 1100.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20220107 1100.0 PUT$ </a>继续调整","text":"$TSLA 20220107 1100.0 PUT$ 继续调整","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74c413013a2362d28939071ac58c2e8","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/695252262","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":695823651,"gmtCreate":1641414254755,"gmtModify":1641414254755,"author":{"id":"3469100938966869","authorId":"3469100938966869","authorIdStr":"3469100938966869","name":"冲浪选手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ff1f6e925a58516e4decfbc1fc05628","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20220107 1100.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20220107 1100.0 PUT$ </a>很多人醒了之后会大吃一惊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20220107 1100.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20220107 1100.0 PUT$ </a>很多人醒了之后会大吃一惊","text":"$TSLA 20220107 1100.0 PUT$ 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一、基本面的理解 2022年的股市,相对2021年的股市来说,更为简单。首先从全球基本面来说,2022年进入到疫情第三年,以西班牙大流感为例,这类大瘟疫情况对市场的影响一般也就三年时间,所以从2022年开始,疫情已经不能算是影响市场的核心因素,各国对疫情的应对已经逐步向流感化方向处理,因此疫情对当前经济的负面影响已经越来越少,最少这不是引起股市下跌的理由。(这点中国除外,毕竟中国非群体免疫路线,若全面爆发还是影响甚大) 骤看之下,全球股市的利空消息,除了美联储加息收紧货币政策外,貌似也没其它利空消息了。加上美国执政党在2022年要应对中期选举,很难会祭出强硬的紧缩政策,所以在中期选举前,恐怕美联储的紧缩措施会比市场现在所预期的要少得多。因此在中期选举前,全球股市可能仍处于蜜月期,看空,目前还真没找到什么基本面理由。 二、时间周期因素 基本面虽然找不出看空的理由,那咱们就来看看技术性因素。捕捉大行情拐点的有效办法,周期分析的效果比较显著。2022年将出现一个全球股市的共振点,而时间巧合地出现在10月以后。 2000年前后,中国加入了WTO,全球的贸易经济出现高度融合和分工,使得全球股市的联动性大大加强,简单点说,如果中美经济发生问题,那么全球其它国家的企业也会受到牵连,从而使得各国股市周期更容易形成共振点。 我们先以美国为引,2000年的互联网泡沫,2008年的金融危机,均使得全球股市出现深度调整,而这两次危机的间隔大约为90个月,我们以此为间隔,看看全球股市的表现。 从标普可看出,自1978年美股进入长牛开始,每90个月均出现一个重要时间点,2000年前几乎都是低点,2000年后都是高点。而这些时点,均有重大事件发生。1978年,中","listText":"1月份将开启系列前瞻帖,来预测一下来年市场的重要机会或风险点,以便大家做好准备。首先当然是大家最关心的股市问题,所以通常第一篇内容就是股市。 一、基本面的理解 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