mainIssue的个人主页 - 老虎社区

mainIssue

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

18关注

3粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2020-08-07

退坑留念，这一年收益满足了。交易思路：主要抓着我关注的波动性强的股票做短线，每次交易达到盈利目标就卖出，不贪

2020-07-16

中国正在恢复了，美国才刚刚开始

美国银行股财报透露的信号：大衰退已无法避免？

2019-12-17

$特斯拉(TSLA)$马爸爸

2019-11-22

$特斯拉(TSLA)$太好了又有机会上车了

2019-09-12

$特斯拉(TSLA)$今天啥情况？

2019-03-13

$Take-Two Interactive Software(TTWO)$ 发生什么了？

2019-02-27

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 走你

2019-02-22

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 炒个股票不要吧a股的戾气带过来，十块二十块的波动对特斯拉算个啥？有信心的上车，没信心的就去空吧

2019-01-28

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 短线接回来，今天能回到145就清。

2019-01-28

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 还好上周160 158跑了[开心]

2019-01-19

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 310建仓 $英伟达(NVDA)$ 148建仓

2019-01-18

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今天啥情况？

2018-12-14

$京东(JD)$ 23做空300股玩玩

2018-12-08

$英伟达(NVDA)$ $Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$加仓，清仓$特斯拉(TSLA)$

2018-08-21

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 有意思

2018-08-14

$京东(JD)$ 等财报

2017-10-20

擦

$华住(HTHT)$ 前天135挂了一单，竟然136.05卖出去了，措手不及啊

2017-10-17

赶上了这班车

$百世物流(BSTI)$嘿嘿

赶上了这班车

2017-10-03

啊

$京东(JD)$ 38.4进 39.8出了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3467592040701269","uuid":"3467592040701269","gmtCreate":1504498020300,"gmtModify":1504498080995,"name":"mainIssue","pinyin":"mainissue","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":3,"headSize":18,"tweetSize":20,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":900,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.04.29","exceedPercentage":"93.93%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-3","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"偶像虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.22","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-2","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"宗师交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到100次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"80.79%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":944323012,"gmtCreate":1596778439836,"gmtModify":1704213585597,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"退坑留念，这一年收益满足了。交易思路：主要抓着我关注的波动性强的股票做短线，每次交易达到盈利目标就卖出，不贪","listText":"退坑留念，这一年收益满足了。交易思路：主要抓着我关注的波动性强的股票做短线，每次交易达到盈利目标就卖出，不贪","text":"退坑留念，这一年收益满足了。交易思路：主要抓着我关注的波动性强的股票做短线，每次交易达到盈利目标就卖出，不贪","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4478186dcfcff12ddea4a67f847f5df8","width":"1242","height":"1350"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/944323012","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1938,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":941176840,"gmtCreate":1594833633380,"gmtModify":1704207079887,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"中国正在恢复了，美国才刚刚开始","listText":"中国正在恢复了，美国才刚刚开始","text":"中国正在恢复了，美国才刚刚开始","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/941176840","repostId":"1184092482","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184092482","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球第五大财经门户网站Investing.com中国官方微信，提供全球各国海量金融资讯和实时行情数据，包括股票股指、外汇、期货、基金、债券、加密货币等。关注全球金融市场动态的投资者千万不可错过。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"英为财情Investing","id":"92","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313"},"pubTimestamp":1594807150,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184092482?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-07-15 17:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国银行股财报透露的信号：大衰退已无法避免？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184092482","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"负责“报幕”的银行股财报，往往可以让我们一窥美国经济的当下状况。","content":"<p>周二，华尔街有三家大银行发布了二季度财报，从数据来看，至少<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>还是赚钱的，然而，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>则出现了长久以来的首次亏损。早在二季度的财报季开始之前，华尔街已经在翘首以盼银行股的数据可以给出一丝“线索”，以帮助投资者看到美国经济的真正状态。</p><p>确实，负责“报幕”的银行股财报，往往可以让我们一窥美国经济的当下状况，以及对未来的经济形势有一个预判。联邦金融分析师Karen Petrou表示，银行的收益最能说明美国经济的整体状况，因为银行和消费者、零售和企业等各个领域都有信贷关系。</p><p>研究机构CFRA的分析师Ken Leon也指出，大型银行可以从蓬勃发展的资本市场，如证券、债券以及财富管理等市场中赚到钱，然而，和大型银行相比，地区银行和社区银行，则更容易受到消费者和企业拖欠贷款的风险的影响。</p><p>截至目前三家银行的数据显示，二季度大型银行确实受益于3月底以来股票和债券市场的大幅波动。其中，摩根大通、花旗集团的二季度交易收入分别增长了77%和48%，远超分析师的预期。整个上半年，交易业务向摩根大通贡献了187亿美元的收入，占总收入的30%；同期花旗的交易收入为134亿美元，占总收入的约三分之一。</p><p>虽然，二季度银行的投资和交易业务收入激增，但是，对于未来隐隐约约将会出现的更复杂问题，投资者们似乎并没有感到太多安慰，仍有一系列问题都亟待回答。</p><p><b>美国经济能见度仍然较低，政府刺激计划只是拖延大衰退时间？</b></p><p>疫情危机给美国经济造成了沉重的打击，迫使许多消费者和企业寻求延期偿还贷款。此外，银行们强调，政府大规模的刺激计划和失业救济也让市场很难了解消费者未来的真正财务健康状况。摩根大通的首席执行官Jamie Dimon坦言，“这不是正常的衰退。未来你将会看到经济衰退的影响。只不过因为刺激措施，你暂时不会看到它。”</p><p>一方面，花旗的首席财务官Mark Mason表示，目前有很多因素让我们很难精准判断消费者活动的展开方式。此外，花旗银行预计，经济复苏的速度实际上将比预期速度低15%左右，这意味着到2021年，美国失业率还将比基础预测高出4-5个百分点。</p><p>另一方面，摩根大通的Jennifer Piepszak也表示，美国当下经济能见度不是很好。</p><p>富国银行的执行长Charles Scharf也在声明中表示，“我们对经济衰退的持续时间和严重程度较上季更不乐观，今年将会推迟支付消费者和小企业250多笔贷款，本息总额超过50亿美元。”</p><p>通常来说，银行在消费者贷款和还贷方面的数据，可以显示出更多的经济表现信息，但是，这一次即使是这些数据，也难以让投资者放心。</p><p>花旗和摩根大通都表示，大约还有50%左右的信用卡借款人还在还款，同时有80%左右的人还在享受银行的债务延缓计划，也就是说，对于很大一部分美国人来说，政府的刺激政策显然还不够。</p><p><b>银行增加贷款损失准备金，股息发放前景存疑？</b></p><p>更为重要的是，从周二的数据来看，银行贷款违约数增加，美国经济形势或将变得更加糟糕。数据显示，二季度，三家银行共计发放了近280亿美元的不良贷款，较上一季度增加近100亿美元，这一水平已略高于2008年第四季度金融危机最严重时期的水平。</p><p>昨天公布业绩的三家银行第二季度的贷款损失准备金较第一季度都出现了激增，摩根大通和花旗拨备的准备金高达数十亿美元，花旗表示，该行在批发业贷款方面增加了约35亿美元准备金，部分原因是一系列企业的信用评级下调。而富国银行也拨备了包括11亿美元和8.4亿美元的准备金，富国在疫情期间累计增加了84亿美元的贷款损失准备金，其中四分之三来自商业方面。</p><p>知名财经博客零对冲评论称，大多数银行的贷款损失准备金比去年同期增长了4倍左右，其中摩根大通增幅最大，略高于5倍，这暗示了其他银行的准备金可能不足以应付即将到来的暴风雨。如果历史经验可靠的话，这些准备金的数量根本远远不够。</p><p>而除了宏观经济能见度低，不断增加贷款拨备以外，银行未来的股息支付也存在不确定性。</p><p>美联储上月告知33家美国及全球最大金融机构，至少在9月以前，不得上调股息或恢复股票回购。目前，疫情危机已经将美国经济推入深入衰退，这增加了放贷机构的风险。这一决定的作出，是在美联储的年度压力测试之后，该测试帮助美联储决定银行业是否可以恢复股息和股票回购，以避免金融系统重蹈2008年金融危机覆辙。</p><p><b>总 结</b></p><p>银行股的财报并没有能让我们放下心来，美国经济的能见度仍然较低，银行们认为，美国政府的刺激政策只是让这场大衰退往后延迟，只是一个“扬汤止沸”的办法，无法做到“釜底抽薪”。</p><p>同时，三家银行也都在提高坏账拨备准备金。而美联储仍然要求银行不得早于9月增加股息和恢复股票回购，以期为未来可能的更糟糕的情况做准备。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国银行股财报透露的信号：大衰退已无法避免？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国银行股财报透露的信号：大衰退已无法避免？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-07-15 17:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周二，华尔街有三家大银行发布了二季度财报，从数据来看，至少<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>还是赚钱的，然而，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>则出现了长久以来的首次亏损。早在二季度的财报季开始之前，华尔街已经在翘首以盼银行股的数据可以给出一丝“线索”，以帮助投资者看到美国经济的真正状态。</p><p>确实，负责“报幕”的银行股财报，往往可以让我们一窥美国经济的当下状况，以及对未来的经济形势有一个预判。联邦金融分析师Karen Petrou表示，银行的收益最能说明美国经济的整体状况，因为银行和消费者、零售和企业等各个领域都有信贷关系。</p><p>研究机构CFRA的分析师Ken Leon也指出，大型银行可以从蓬勃发展的资本市场，如证券、债券以及财富管理等市场中赚到钱，然而，和大型银行相比，地区银行和社区银行，则更容易受到消费者和企业拖欠贷款的风险的影响。</p><p>截至目前三家银行的数据显示，二季度大型银行确实受益于3月底以来股票和债券市场的大幅波动。其中，摩根大通、花旗集团的二季度交易收入分别增长了77%和48%，远超分析师的预期。整个上半年，交易业务向摩根大通贡献了187亿美元的收入，占总收入的30%；同期花旗的交易收入为134亿美元，占总收入的约三分之一。</p><p>虽然，二季度银行的投资和交易业务收入激增，但是，对于未来隐隐约约将会出现的更复杂问题，投资者们似乎并没有感到太多安慰，仍有一系列问题都亟待回答。</p><p><b>美国经济能见度仍然较低，政府刺激计划只是拖延大衰退时间？</b></p><p>疫情危机给美国经济造成了沉重的打击，迫使许多消费者和企业寻求延期偿还贷款。此外，银行们强调，政府大规模的刺激计划和失业救济也让市场很难了解消费者未来的真正财务健康状况。摩根大通的首席执行官Jamie Dimon坦言，“这不是正常的衰退。未来你将会看到经济衰退的影响。只不过因为刺激措施，你暂时不会看到它。”</p><p>一方面，花旗的首席财务官Mark Mason表示，目前有很多因素让我们很难精准判断消费者活动的展开方式。此外，花旗银行预计，经济复苏的速度实际上将比预期速度低15%左右，这意味着到2021年，美国失业率还将比基础预测高出4-5个百分点。</p><p>另一方面，摩根大通的Jennifer Piepszak也表示，美国当下经济能见度不是很好。</p><p>富国银行的执行长Charles Scharf也在声明中表示，“我们对经济衰退的持续时间和严重程度较上季更不乐观，今年将会推迟支付消费者和小企业250多笔贷款，本息总额超过50亿美元。”</p><p>通常来说，银行在消费者贷款和还贷方面的数据，可以显示出更多的经济表现信息，但是，这一次即使是这些数据，也难以让投资者放心。</p><p>花旗和摩根大通都表示，大约还有50%左右的信用卡借款人还在还款，同时有80%左右的人还在享受银行的债务延缓计划，也就是说，对于很大一部分美国人来说，政府的刺激政策显然还不够。</p><p><b>银行增加贷款损失准备金，股息发放前景存疑？</b></p><p>更为重要的是，从周二的数据来看，银行贷款违约数增加，美国经济形势或将变得更加糟糕。数据显示，二季度，三家银行共计发放了近280亿美元的不良贷款，较上一季度增加近100亿美元，这一水平已略高于2008年第四季度金融危机最严重时期的水平。</p><p>昨天公布业绩的三家银行第二季度的贷款损失准备金较第一季度都出现了激增，摩根大通和花旗拨备的准备金高达数十亿美元，花旗表示，该行在批发业贷款方面增加了约35亿美元准备金，部分原因是一系列企业的信用评级下调。而富国银行也拨备了包括11亿美元和8.4亿美元的准备金，富国在疫情期间累计增加了84亿美元的贷款损失准备金，其中四分之三来自商业方面。</p><p>知名财经博客零对冲评论称，大多数银行的贷款损失准备金比去年同期增长了4倍左右，其中摩根大通增幅最大，略高于5倍，这暗示了其他银行的准备金可能不足以应付即将到来的暴风雨。如果历史经验可靠的话，这些准备金的数量根本远远不够。</p><p>而除了宏观经济能见度低，不断增加贷款拨备以外，银行未来的股息支付也存在不确定性。</p><p>美联储上月告知33家美国及全球最大金融机构，至少在9月以前，不得上调股息或恢复股票回购。目前，疫情危机已经将美国经济推入深入衰退，这增加了放贷机构的风险。这一决定的作出，是在美联储的年度压力测试之后，该测试帮助美联储决定银行业是否可以恢复股息和股票回购，以避免金融系统重蹈2008年金融危机覆辙。</p><p><b>总 结</b></p><p>银行股的财报并没有能让我们放下心来，美国经济的能见度仍然较低，银行们认为，美国政府的刺激政策只是让这场大衰退往后延迟，只是一个“扬汤止沸”的办法，无法做到“釜底抽薪”。</p><p>同时，三家银行也都在提高坏账拨备准备金。而美联储仍然要求银行不得早于9月增加股息和恢复股票回购，以期为未来可能的更糟糕的情况做准备。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc56982f828847b68443cfbde6a957b","relate_stocks":{"WFC":"富国银行","JPM":"摩根大通","C":"花旗"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184092482","content_text":"周二，华尔街有三家大银行发布了二季度财报，从数据来看，至少花旗和摩根大通还是赚钱的，然而，富国银行则出现了长久以来的首次亏损。早在二季度的财报季开始之前，华尔街已经在翘首以盼银行股的数据可以给出一丝“线索”，以帮助投资者看到美国经济的真正状态。确实，负责“报幕”的银行股财报，往往可以让我们一窥美国经济的当下状况，以及对未来的经济形势有一个预判。联邦金融分析师Karen Petrou表示，银行的收益最能说明美国经济的整体状况，因为银行和消费者、零售和企业等各个领域都有信贷关系。研究机构CFRA的分析师Ken Leon也指出，大型银行可以从蓬勃发展的资本市场，如证券、债券以及财富管理等市场中赚到钱，然而，和大型银行相比，地区银行和社区银行，则更容易受到消费者和企业拖欠贷款的风险的影响。截至目前三家银行的数据显示，二季度大型银行确实受益于3月底以来股票和债券市场的大幅波动。其中，摩根大通、花旗集团的二季度交易收入分别增长了77%和48%，远超分析师的预期。整个上半年，交易业务向摩根大通贡献了187亿美元的收入，占总收入的30%；同期花旗的交易收入为134亿美元，占总收入的约三分之一。虽然，二季度银行的投资和交易业务收入激增，但是，对于未来隐隐约约将会出现的更复杂问题，投资者们似乎并没有感到太多安慰，仍有一系列问题都亟待回答。美国经济能见度仍然较低，政府刺激计划只是拖延大衰退时间？疫情危机给美国经济造成了沉重的打击，迫使许多消费者和企业寻求延期偿还贷款。此外，银行们强调，政府大规模的刺激计划和失业救济也让市场很难了解消费者未来的真正财务健康状况。摩根大通的首席执行官Jamie Dimon坦言，“这不是正常的衰退。未来你将会看到经济衰退的影响。只不过因为刺激措施，你暂时不会看到它。”一方面，花旗的首席财务官Mark Mason表示，目前有很多因素让我们很难精准判断消费者活动的展开方式。此外，花旗银行预计，经济复苏的速度实际上将比预期速度低15%左右，这意味着到2021年，美国失业率还将比基础预测高出4-5个百分点。另一方面，摩根大通的Jennifer Piepszak也表示，美国当下经济能见度不是很好。富国银行的执行长Charles Scharf也在声明中表示，“我们对经济衰退的持续时间和严重程度较上季更不乐观，今年将会推迟支付消费者和小企业250多笔贷款，本息总额超过50亿美元。”通常来说，银行在消费者贷款和还贷方面的数据，可以显示出更多的经济表现信息，但是，这一次即使是这些数据，也难以让投资者放心。花旗和摩根大通都表示，大约还有50%左右的信用卡借款人还在还款，同时有80%左右的人还在享受银行的债务延缓计划，也就是说，对于很大一部分美国人来说，政府的刺激政策显然还不够。银行增加贷款损失准备金，股息发放前景存疑？更为重要的是，从周二的数据来看，银行贷款违约数增加，美国经济形势或将变得更加糟糕。数据显示，二季度，三家银行共计发放了近280亿美元的不良贷款，较上一季度增加近100亿美元，这一水平已略高于2008年第四季度金融危机最严重时期的水平。昨天公布业绩的三家银行第二季度的贷款损失准备金较第一季度都出现了激增，摩根大通和花旗拨备的准备金高达数十亿美元，花旗表示，该行在批发业贷款方面增加了约35亿美元准备金，部分原因是一系列企业的信用评级下调。而富国银行也拨备了包括11亿美元和8.4亿美元的准备金，富国在疫情期间累计增加了84亿美元的贷款损失准备金，其中四分之三来自商业方面。知名财经博客零对冲评论称，大多数银行的贷款损失准备金比去年同期增长了4倍左右，其中摩根大通增幅最大，略高于5倍，这暗示了其他银行的准备金可能不足以应付即将到来的暴风雨。如果历史经验可靠的话，这些准备金的数量根本远远不够。而除了宏观经济能见度低，不断增加贷款拨备以外，银行未来的股息支付也存在不确定性。美联储上月告知33家美国及全球最大金融机构，至少在9月以前，不得上调股息或恢复股票回购。目前，疫情危机已经将美国经济推入深入衰退，这增加了放贷机构的风险。这一决定的作出，是在美联储的年度压力测试之后，该测试帮助美联储决定银行业是否可以恢复股息和股票回购，以避免金融系统重蹈2008年金融危机覆辙。总 结银行股的财报并没有能让我们放下心来，美国经济的能见度仍然较低，银行们认为，美国政府的刺激政策只是让这场大衰退往后延迟，只是一个“扬汤止沸”的办法，无法做到“釜底抽薪”。同时，三家银行也都在提高坏账拨备准备金。而美联储仍然要求银行不得早于9月增加股息和恢复股票回购，以期为未来可能的更糟糕的情况做准备。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":919106537,"gmtCreate":1576512910529,"gmtModify":1704271900542,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>马爸爸","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>马爸爸","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$马爸爸","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a591d1677161ab6e7eb56e5293d9ea3","width":"1242","height":"1767"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/919106537","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":934792505,"gmtCreate":1574438303307,"gmtModify":1704728046226,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>太好了又有机会上车了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>太好了又有机会上车了","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$太好了又有机会上车了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/934792505","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1569,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":930660987,"gmtCreate":1568220305649,"gmtModify":1704717510737,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>今天啥情况？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>今天啥情况？","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$今天啥情况？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/930660987","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":426525,"gmtCreate":1552487328678,"gmtModify":1704792692134,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$Take-Two Interactive Software(TTWO)$ 发生什么了？","listText":"$Take-Two Interactive Software(TTWO)$ 发生什么了？","text":"$Take-Two Interactive Software(TTWO)$ 发生什么了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/426525","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2723,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3464387590673481","authorId":"3464387590673481","name":"麦麦卢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b0ce6565a8141c3694354989c3208a1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3464387590673481","authorIdStr":"3464387590673481"},"content":"美国财经新闻那边几乎全是做多的新闻，该涨了，这是一只慢牛","text":"美国财经新闻那边几乎全是做多的新闻，该涨了，这是一只慢牛","html":"美国财经新闻那边几乎全是做多的新闻，该涨了，这是一只慢牛"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":409779,"gmtCreate":1551197608316,"gmtModify":1704790686151,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 走你","listText":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 走你","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 走你","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/409779","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":405516,"gmtCreate":1550770117757,"gmtModify":1704790149523,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 炒个股票不要吧a股的戾气带过来，十块二十块的波动对特斯拉算个啥？有信心的上车，没信心的就去空吧","listText":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 炒个股票不要吧a股的戾气带过来，十块二十块的波动对特斯拉算个啥？有信心的上车，没信心的就去空吧","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 炒个股票不要吧a股的戾气带过来，十块二十块的波动对特斯拉算个啥？有信心的上车，没信心的就去空吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/405516","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1929,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":389589,"gmtCreate":1548689586790,"gmtModify":1704788152971,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 短线接回来，今天能回到145就清。","listText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 短线接回来，今天能回到145就清。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 短线接回来，今天能回到145就清。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb017d29d2c8f360a67d5e6c48535e30"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389589","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":389452,"gmtCreate":1548686715423,"gmtModify":1704788135253,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 还好上周160 158跑了[开心]","listText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 还好上周160 158跑了[开心]","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 还好上周160 158跑了[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389452","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1729,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":383152,"gmtCreate":1547835092803,"gmtModify":1704787330669,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 310建仓 $英伟达(NVDA)$ 148建仓","listText":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 310建仓 $英伟达(NVDA)$ 148建仓","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 310建仓 $英伟达(NVDA)$ 148建仓","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383152","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3474288735945921","authorId":"3474288735945921","name":"ducker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa01d2caab0a21d6de64c94bf839762b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3474288735945921","authorIdStr":"3474288735945921"},"content":"你是托儿？","text":"你是托儿？","html":"你是托儿？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":382878,"gmtCreate":1547825076793,"gmtModify":1704787298929,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今天啥情况？","listText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今天啥情况？","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今天啥情况？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382878","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":354819,"gmtCreate":1544717453188,"gmtModify":1704783855197,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$京东(JD)$ 23做空300股玩玩","listText":"$京东(JD)$ 23做空300股玩玩","text":"$京东(JD)$ 23做空300股玩玩","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354819","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":349843,"gmtCreate":1544212963770,"gmtModify":1704783224959,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ $Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$加仓 ，清仓$特斯拉(TSLA)$","listText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ $Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$加仓 ，清仓$特斯拉(TSLA)$","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ $Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$加仓 ，清仓$特斯拉(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349843","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":955,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":246758,"gmtCreate":1534782486602,"gmtModify":1704770840901,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 有意思","listText":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 有意思","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 有意思","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/898c4f00bc57d0da548106047fc59cde"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/246758","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3478899126138212","authorId":"3478899126138212","name":"老虎正劝狮子呢","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3478899126138212","authorIdStr":"3478899126138212"},"content":"全都是假的 你去推特搜Elon Musk, 各种搞比特币骗局的假账号，封的没有注册的快","text":"全都是假的 你去推特搜Elon Musk, 各种搞比特币骗局的假账号，封的没有注册的快","html":"全都是假的 你去推特搜Elon Musk, 各种搞比特币骗局的假账号，封的没有注册的快"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":242370,"gmtCreate":1534257391619,"gmtModify":1704770270014,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$京东(JD)$ 等财报","listText":"$京东(JD)$ 等财报","text":"$京东(JD)$ 等财报","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5834b39f7617a6bf956163fe12300460"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/242370","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3476887487996812","authorId":"3476887487996812","name":"风度韬先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f770986465168df3dfddc943e9af7501","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3476887487996812","authorIdStr":"3476887487996812"},"content":"京东财报什么时候出","text":"京东财报什么时候出","html":"京东财报什么时候出"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":104326,"gmtCreate":1508487842332,"gmtModify":1704882432682,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"title":"擦","htmlText":"$华住(HTHT)$ 前天135挂了一单，竟然136.05卖出去了，措手不及啊","listText":"$华住(HTHT)$ 前天135挂了一单，竟然136.05卖出去了，措手不及啊","text":"$华住(HTHT)$ 前天135挂了一单，竟然136.05卖出去了，措手不及啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104326","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":102957,"gmtCreate":1508177818505,"gmtModify":1704882250638,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"title":"赶上了这班车","htmlText":"$百世物流(BSTI)$嘿嘿","listText":"$百世物流(BSTI)$嘿嘿","text":"$百世物流(BSTI)$嘿嘿","images":[{"img":"https://static.laohu8.com/1c6f76b7099a4ff415b284c6cea60dd5"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102957","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2051,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":99856,"gmtCreate":1506964387027,"gmtModify":1704881813046,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"title":"啊","htmlText":"$京东(JD)$ 38.4进 39.8出了","listText":"$京东(JD)$ 38.4进 39.8出了","text":"$京东(JD)$ 38.4进 39.8出了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/99856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3469054727336433","authorId":"3469054727336433","name":"我们的明天","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50901357b523bfd616f87779d97311af","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3469054727336433","authorIdStr":"3469054727336433"},"content":"今天会不会暴跌","text":"今天会不会暴跌","html":"今天会不会暴跌"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":99856,"gmtCreate":1506964387027,"gmtModify":1704881813046,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"title":"啊","htmlText":"$京东(JD)$ 38.4进 39.8出了","listText":"$京东(JD)$ 38.4进 39.8出了","text":"$京东(JD)$ 38.4进 39.8出了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/99856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3469054727336433","authorId":"3469054727336433","name":"我们的明天","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50901357b523bfd616f87779d97311af","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3469054727336433","authorIdStr":"3469054727336433"},"content":"今天会不会暴跌","text":"今天会不会暴跌","html":"今天会不会暴跌"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":383152,"gmtCreate":1547835092803,"gmtModify":1704787330669,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 310建仓 $英伟达(NVDA)$ 148建仓","listText":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 310建仓 $英伟达(NVDA)$ 148建仓","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 310建仓 $英伟达(NVDA)$ 148建仓","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383152","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3474288735945921","authorId":"3474288735945921","name":"ducker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa01d2caab0a21d6de64c94bf839762b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3474288735945921","authorIdStr":"3474288735945921"},"content":"你是托儿？","text":"你是托儿？","html":"你是托儿？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":426525,"gmtCreate":1552487328678,"gmtModify":1704792692134,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$Take-Two Interactive Software(TTWO)$ 发生什么了？","listText":"$Take-Two Interactive Software(TTWO)$ 发生什么了？","text":"$Take-Two Interactive Software(TTWO)$ 发生什么了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/426525","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2723,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3464387590673481","authorId":"3464387590673481","name":"麦麦卢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b0ce6565a8141c3694354989c3208a1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3464387590673481","authorIdStr":"3464387590673481"},"content":"美国财经新闻那边几乎全是做多的新闻，该涨了，这是一只慢牛","text":"美国财经新闻那边几乎全是做多的新闻，该涨了，这是一只慢牛","html":"美国财经新闻那边几乎全是做多的新闻，该涨了，这是一只慢牛"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":246758,"gmtCreate":1534782486602,"gmtModify":1704770840901,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 有意思","listText":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 有意思","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 有意思","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/898c4f00bc57d0da548106047fc59cde"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/246758","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3478899126138212","authorId":"3478899126138212","name":"老虎正劝狮子呢","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3478899126138212","authorIdStr":"3478899126138212"},"content":"全都是假的 你去推特搜Elon Musk, 各种搞比特币骗局的假账号，封的没有注册的快","text":"全都是假的 你去推特搜Elon Musk, 各种搞比特币骗局的假账号，封的没有注册的快","html":"全都是假的 你去推特搜Elon Musk, 各种搞比特币骗局的假账号，封的没有注册的快"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":349843,"gmtCreate":1544212963770,"gmtModify":1704783224959,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ $Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$加仓 ，清仓$特斯拉(TSLA)$","listText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ $Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$加仓 ，清仓$特斯拉(TSLA)$","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ $Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$加仓 ，清仓$特斯拉(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349843","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":955,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":242370,"gmtCreate":1534257391619,"gmtModify":1704770270014,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$京东(JD)$ 等财报","listText":"$京东(JD)$ 等财报","text":"$京东(JD)$ 等财报","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5834b39f7617a6bf956163fe12300460"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/242370","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3476887487996812","authorId":"3476887487996812","name":"风度韬先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f770986465168df3dfddc943e9af7501","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3476887487996812","authorIdStr":"3476887487996812"},"content":"京东财报什么时候出","text":"京东财报什么时候出","html":"京东财报什么时候出"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":382878,"gmtCreate":1547825076793,"gmtModify":1704787298929,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今天啥情况？","listText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今天啥情况？","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今天啥情况？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382878","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":941176840,"gmtCreate":1594833633380,"gmtModify":1704207079887,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"中国正在恢复了，美国才刚刚开始","listText":"中国正在恢复了，美国才刚刚开始","text":"中国正在恢复了，美国才刚刚开始","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/941176840","repostId":"1184092482","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184092482","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球第五大财经门户网站Investing.com中国官方微信，提供全球各国海量金融资讯和实时行情数据，包括股票股指、外汇、期货、基金、债券、加密货币等。关注全球金融市场动态的投资者千万不可错过。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"英为财情Investing","id":"92","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313"},"pubTimestamp":1594807150,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184092482?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-07-15 17:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国银行股财报透露的信号：大衰退已无法避免？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184092482","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"负责“报幕”的银行股财报，往往可以让我们一窥美国经济的当下状况。","content":"<p>周二，华尔街有三家大银行发布了二季度财报，从数据来看，至少<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>还是赚钱的，然而，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>则出现了长久以来的首次亏损。早在二季度的财报季开始之前，华尔街已经在翘首以盼银行股的数据可以给出一丝“线索”，以帮助投资者看到美国经济的真正状态。</p><p>确实，负责“报幕”的银行股财报，往往可以让我们一窥美国经济的当下状况，以及对未来的经济形势有一个预判。联邦金融分析师Karen Petrou表示，银行的收益最能说明美国经济的整体状况，因为银行和消费者、零售和企业等各个领域都有信贷关系。</p><p>研究机构CFRA的分析师Ken Leon也指出，大型银行可以从蓬勃发展的资本市场，如证券、债券以及财富管理等市场中赚到钱，然而，和大型银行相比，地区银行和社区银行，则更容易受到消费者和企业拖欠贷款的风险的影响。</p><p>截至目前三家银行的数据显示，二季度大型银行确实受益于3月底以来股票和债券市场的大幅波动。其中，摩根大通、花旗集团的二季度交易收入分别增长了77%和48%，远超分析师的预期。整个上半年，交易业务向摩根大通贡献了187亿美元的收入，占总收入的30%；同期花旗的交易收入为134亿美元，占总收入的约三分之一。</p><p>虽然，二季度银行的投资和交易业务收入激增，但是，对于未来隐隐约约将会出现的更复杂问题，投资者们似乎并没有感到太多安慰，仍有一系列问题都亟待回答。</p><p><b>美国经济能见度仍然较低，政府刺激计划只是拖延大衰退时间？</b></p><p>疫情危机给美国经济造成了沉重的打击，迫使许多消费者和企业寻求延期偿还贷款。此外，银行们强调，政府大规模的刺激计划和失业救济也让市场很难了解消费者未来的真正财务健康状况。摩根大通的首席执行官Jamie Dimon坦言，“这不是正常的衰退。未来你将会看到经济衰退的影响。只不过因为刺激措施，你暂时不会看到它。”</p><p>一方面，花旗的首席财务官Mark Mason表示，目前有很多因素让我们很难精准判断消费者活动的展开方式。此外，花旗银行预计，经济复苏的速度实际上将比预期速度低15%左右，这意味着到2021年，美国失业率还将比基础预测高出4-5个百分点。</p><p>另一方面，摩根大通的Jennifer Piepszak也表示，美国当下经济能见度不是很好。</p><p>富国银行的执行长Charles Scharf也在声明中表示，“我们对经济衰退的持续时间和严重程度较上季更不乐观，今年将会推迟支付消费者和小企业250多笔贷款，本息总额超过50亿美元。”</p><p>通常来说，银行在消费者贷款和还贷方面的数据，可以显示出更多的经济表现信息，但是，这一次即使是这些数据，也难以让投资者放心。</p><p>花旗和摩根大通都表示，大约还有50%左右的信用卡借款人还在还款，同时有80%左右的人还在享受银行的债务延缓计划，也就是说，对于很大一部分美国人来说，政府的刺激政策显然还不够。</p><p><b>银行增加贷款损失准备金，股息发放前景存疑？</b></p><p>更为重要的是，从周二的数据来看，银行贷款违约数增加，美国经济形势或将变得更加糟糕。数据显示，二季度，三家银行共计发放了近280亿美元的不良贷款，较上一季度增加近100亿美元，这一水平已略高于2008年第四季度金融危机最严重时期的水平。</p><p>昨天公布业绩的三家银行第二季度的贷款损失准备金较第一季度都出现了激增，摩根大通和花旗拨备的准备金高达数十亿美元，花旗表示，该行在批发业贷款方面增加了约35亿美元准备金，部分原因是一系列企业的信用评级下调。而富国银行也拨备了包括11亿美元和8.4亿美元的准备金，富国在疫情期间累计增加了84亿美元的贷款损失准备金，其中四分之三来自商业方面。</p><p>知名财经博客零对冲评论称，大多数银行的贷款损失准备金比去年同期增长了4倍左右，其中摩根大通增幅最大，略高于5倍，这暗示了其他银行的准备金可能不足以应付即将到来的暴风雨。如果历史经验可靠的话，这些准备金的数量根本远远不够。</p><p>而除了宏观经济能见度低，不断增加贷款拨备以外，银行未来的股息支付也存在不确定性。</p><p>美联储上月告知33家美国及全球最大金融机构，至少在9月以前，不得上调股息或恢复股票回购。目前，疫情危机已经将美国经济推入深入衰退，这增加了放贷机构的风险。这一决定的作出，是在美联储的年度压力测试之后，该测试帮助美联储决定银行业是否可以恢复股息和股票回购，以避免金融系统重蹈2008年金融危机覆辙。</p><p><b>总 结</b></p><p>银行股的财报并没有能让我们放下心来，美国经济的能见度仍然较低，银行们认为，美国政府的刺激政策只是让这场大衰退往后延迟，只是一个“扬汤止沸”的办法，无法做到“釜底抽薪”。</p><p>同时，三家银行也都在提高坏账拨备准备金。而美联储仍然要求银行不得早于9月增加股息和恢复股票回购，以期为未来可能的更糟糕的情况做准备。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国银行股财报透露的信号：大衰退已无法避免？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国银行股财报透露的信号：大衰退已无法避免？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-07-15 17:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周二，华尔街有三家大银行发布了二季度财报，从数据来看，至少<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>还是赚钱的，然而，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>则出现了长久以来的首次亏损。早在二季度的财报季开始之前，华尔街已经在翘首以盼银行股的数据可以给出一丝“线索”，以帮助投资者看到美国经济的真正状态。</p><p>确实，负责“报幕”的银行股财报，往往可以让我们一窥美国经济的当下状况，以及对未来的经济形势有一个预判。联邦金融分析师Karen Petrou表示，银行的收益最能说明美国经济的整体状况，因为银行和消费者、零售和企业等各个领域都有信贷关系。</p><p>研究机构CFRA的分析师Ken Leon也指出，大型银行可以从蓬勃发展的资本市场，如证券、债券以及财富管理等市场中赚到钱，然而，和大型银行相比，地区银行和社区银行，则更容易受到消费者和企业拖欠贷款的风险的影响。</p><p>截至目前三家银行的数据显示，二季度大型银行确实受益于3月底以来股票和债券市场的大幅波动。其中，摩根大通、花旗集团的二季度交易收入分别增长了77%和48%，远超分析师的预期。整个上半年，交易业务向摩根大通贡献了187亿美元的收入，占总收入的30%；同期花旗的交易收入为134亿美元，占总收入的约三分之一。</p><p>虽然，二季度银行的投资和交易业务收入激增，但是，对于未来隐隐约约将会出现的更复杂问题，投资者们似乎并没有感到太多安慰，仍有一系列问题都亟待回答。</p><p><b>美国经济能见度仍然较低，政府刺激计划只是拖延大衰退时间？</b></p><p>疫情危机给美国经济造成了沉重的打击，迫使许多消费者和企业寻求延期偿还贷款。此外，银行们强调，政府大规模的刺激计划和失业救济也让市场很难了解消费者未来的真正财务健康状况。摩根大通的首席执行官Jamie Dimon坦言，“这不是正常的衰退。未来你将会看到经济衰退的影响。只不过因为刺激措施，你暂时不会看到它。”</p><p>一方面，花旗的首席财务官Mark Mason表示，目前有很多因素让我们很难精准判断消费者活动的展开方式。此外，花旗银行预计，经济复苏的速度实际上将比预期速度低15%左右，这意味着到2021年，美国失业率还将比基础预测高出4-5个百分点。</p><p>另一方面，摩根大通的Jennifer Piepszak也表示，美国当下经济能见度不是很好。</p><p>富国银行的执行长Charles Scharf也在声明中表示，“我们对经济衰退的持续时间和严重程度较上季更不乐观，今年将会推迟支付消费者和小企业250多笔贷款，本息总额超过50亿美元。”</p><p>通常来说，银行在消费者贷款和还贷方面的数据，可以显示出更多的经济表现信息，但是，这一次即使是这些数据，也难以让投资者放心。</p><p>花旗和摩根大通都表示，大约还有50%左右的信用卡借款人还在还款，同时有80%左右的人还在享受银行的债务延缓计划，也就是说，对于很大一部分美国人来说，政府的刺激政策显然还不够。</p><p><b>银行增加贷款损失准备金，股息发放前景存疑？</b></p><p>更为重要的是，从周二的数据来看，银行贷款违约数增加，美国经济形势或将变得更加糟糕。数据显示，二季度，三家银行共计发放了近280亿美元的不良贷款，较上一季度增加近100亿美元，这一水平已略高于2008年第四季度金融危机最严重时期的水平。</p><p>昨天公布业绩的三家银行第二季度的贷款损失准备金较第一季度都出现了激增，摩根大通和花旗拨备的准备金高达数十亿美元，花旗表示，该行在批发业贷款方面增加了约35亿美元准备金，部分原因是一系列企业的信用评级下调。而富国银行也拨备了包括11亿美元和8.4亿美元的准备金，富国在疫情期间累计增加了84亿美元的贷款损失准备金，其中四分之三来自商业方面。</p><p>知名财经博客零对冲评论称，大多数银行的贷款损失准备金比去年同期增长了4倍左右，其中摩根大通增幅最大，略高于5倍，这暗示了其他银行的准备金可能不足以应付即将到来的暴风雨。如果历史经验可靠的话，这些准备金的数量根本远远不够。</p><p>而除了宏观经济能见度低，不断增加贷款拨备以外，银行未来的股息支付也存在不确定性。</p><p>美联储上月告知33家美国及全球最大金融机构，至少在9月以前，不得上调股息或恢复股票回购。目前，疫情危机已经将美国经济推入深入衰退，这增加了放贷机构的风险。这一决定的作出，是在美联储的年度压力测试之后，该测试帮助美联储决定银行业是否可以恢复股息和股票回购，以避免金融系统重蹈2008年金融危机覆辙。</p><p><b>总 结</b></p><p>银行股的财报并没有能让我们放下心来，美国经济的能见度仍然较低，银行们认为，美国政府的刺激政策只是让这场大衰退往后延迟，只是一个“扬汤止沸”的办法，无法做到“釜底抽薪”。</p><p>同时，三家银行也都在提高坏账拨备准备金。而美联储仍然要求银行不得早于9月增加股息和恢复股票回购，以期为未来可能的更糟糕的情况做准备。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc56982f828847b68443cfbde6a957b","relate_stocks":{"WFC":"富国银行","JPM":"摩根大通","C":"花旗"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184092482","content_text":"周二，华尔街有三家大银行发布了二季度财报，从数据来看，至少花旗和摩根大通还是赚钱的，然而，富国银行则出现了长久以来的首次亏损。早在二季度的财报季开始之前，华尔街已经在翘首以盼银行股的数据可以给出一丝“线索”，以帮助投资者看到美国经济的真正状态。确实，负责“报幕”的银行股财报，往往可以让我们一窥美国经济的当下状况，以及对未来的经济形势有一个预判。联邦金融分析师Karen Petrou表示，银行的收益最能说明美国经济的整体状况，因为银行和消费者、零售和企业等各个领域都有信贷关系。研究机构CFRA的分析师Ken Leon也指出，大型银行可以从蓬勃发展的资本市场，如证券、债券以及财富管理等市场中赚到钱，然而，和大型银行相比，地区银行和社区银行，则更容易受到消费者和企业拖欠贷款的风险的影响。截至目前三家银行的数据显示，二季度大型银行确实受益于3月底以来股票和债券市场的大幅波动。其中，摩根大通、花旗集团的二季度交易收入分别增长了77%和48%，远超分析师的预期。整个上半年，交易业务向摩根大通贡献了187亿美元的收入，占总收入的30%；同期花旗的交易收入为134亿美元，占总收入的约三分之一。虽然，二季度银行的投资和交易业务收入激增，但是，对于未来隐隐约约将会出现的更复杂问题，投资者们似乎并没有感到太多安慰，仍有一系列问题都亟待回答。美国经济能见度仍然较低，政府刺激计划只是拖延大衰退时间？疫情危机给美国经济造成了沉重的打击，迫使许多消费者和企业寻求延期偿还贷款。此外，银行们强调，政府大规模的刺激计划和失业救济也让市场很难了解消费者未来的真正财务健康状况。摩根大通的首席执行官Jamie Dimon坦言，“这不是正常的衰退。未来你将会看到经济衰退的影响。只不过因为刺激措施，你暂时不会看到它。”一方面，花旗的首席财务官Mark Mason表示，目前有很多因素让我们很难精准判断消费者活动的展开方式。此外，花旗银行预计，经济复苏的速度实际上将比预期速度低15%左右，这意味着到2021年，美国失业率还将比基础预测高出4-5个百分点。另一方面，摩根大通的Jennifer Piepszak也表示，美国当下经济能见度不是很好。富国银行的执行长Charles Scharf也在声明中表示，“我们对经济衰退的持续时间和严重程度较上季更不乐观，今年将会推迟支付消费者和小企业250多笔贷款，本息总额超过50亿美元。”通常来说，银行在消费者贷款和还贷方面的数据，可以显示出更多的经济表现信息，但是，这一次即使是这些数据，也难以让投资者放心。花旗和摩根大通都表示，大约还有50%左右的信用卡借款人还在还款，同时有80%左右的人还在享受银行的债务延缓计划，也就是说，对于很大一部分美国人来说，政府的刺激政策显然还不够。银行增加贷款损失准备金，股息发放前景存疑？更为重要的是，从周二的数据来看，银行贷款违约数增加，美国经济形势或将变得更加糟糕。数据显示，二季度，三家银行共计发放了近280亿美元的不良贷款，较上一季度增加近100亿美元，这一水平已略高于2008年第四季度金融危机最严重时期的水平。昨天公布业绩的三家银行第二季度的贷款损失准备金较第一季度都出现了激增，摩根大通和花旗拨备的准备金高达数十亿美元，花旗表示，该行在批发业贷款方面增加了约35亿美元准备金，部分原因是一系列企业的信用评级下调。而富国银行也拨备了包括11亿美元和8.4亿美元的准备金，富国在疫情期间累计增加了84亿美元的贷款损失准备金，其中四分之三来自商业方面。知名财经博客零对冲评论称，大多数银行的贷款损失准备金比去年同期增长了4倍左右，其中摩根大通增幅最大，略高于5倍，这暗示了其他银行的准备金可能不足以应付即将到来的暴风雨。如果历史经验可靠的话，这些准备金的数量根本远远不够。而除了宏观经济能见度低，不断增加贷款拨备以外，银行未来的股息支付也存在不确定性。美联储上月告知33家美国及全球最大金融机构，至少在9月以前，不得上调股息或恢复股票回购。目前，疫情危机已经将美国经济推入深入衰退，这增加了放贷机构的风险。这一决定的作出，是在美联储的年度压力测试之后，该测试帮助美联储决定银行业是否可以恢复股息和股票回购，以避免金融系统重蹈2008年金融危机覆辙。总 结银行股的财报并没有能让我们放下心来，美国经济的能见度仍然较低，银行们认为，美国政府的刺激政策只是让这场大衰退往后延迟，只是一个“扬汤止沸”的办法，无法做到“釜底抽薪”。同时，三家银行也都在提高坏账拨备准备金。而美联储仍然要求银行不得早于9月增加股息和恢复股票回购，以期为未来可能的更糟糕的情况做准备。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":405516,"gmtCreate":1550770117757,"gmtModify":1704790149523,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 炒个股票不要吧a股的戾气带过来，十块二十块的波动对特斯拉算个啥？有信心的上车，没信心的就去空吧","listText":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 炒个股票不要吧a股的戾气带过来，十块二十块的波动对特斯拉算个啥？有信心的上车，没信心的就去空吧","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 炒个股票不要吧a股的戾气带过来，十块二十块的波动对特斯拉算个啥？有信心的上车，没信心的就去空吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/405516","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1929,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":389452,"gmtCreate":1548686715423,"gmtModify":1704788135253,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 还好上周160 158跑了[开心]","listText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 还好上周160 158跑了[开心]","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 还好上周160 158跑了[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389452","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1729,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":930660987,"gmtCreate":1568220305649,"gmtModify":1704717510737,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>今天啥情况？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>今天啥情况？","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$今天啥情况？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/930660987","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":354819,"gmtCreate":1544717453188,"gmtModify":1704783855197,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$京东(JD)$ 23做空300股玩玩","listText":"$京东(JD)$ 23做空300股玩玩","text":"$京东(JD)$ 23做空300股玩玩","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354819","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":104326,"gmtCreate":1508487842332,"gmtModify":1704882432682,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"title":"擦","htmlText":"$华住(HTHT)$ 前天135挂了一单，竟然136.05卖出去了，措手不及啊","listText":"$华住(HTHT)$ 前天135挂了一单，竟然136.05卖出去了，措手不及啊","text":"$华住(HTHT)$ 前天135挂了一单，竟然136.05卖出去了，措手不及啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104326","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":102957,"gmtCreate":1508177818505,"gmtModify":1704882250638,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"title":"赶上了这班车","htmlText":"$百世物流(BSTI)$嘿嘿","listText":"$百世物流(BSTI)$嘿嘿","text":"$百世物流(BSTI)$嘿嘿","images":[{"img":"https://static.laohu8.com/1c6f76b7099a4ff415b284c6cea60dd5"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102957","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2051,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":944323012,"gmtCreate":1596778439836,"gmtModify":1704213585597,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"退坑留念，这一年收益满足了。交易思路：主要抓着我关注的波动性强的股票做短线，每次交易达到盈利目标就卖出，不贪","listText":"退坑留念，这一年收益满足了。交易思路：主要抓着我关注的波动性强的股票做短线，每次交易达到盈利目标就卖出，不贪","text":"退坑留念，这一年收益满足了。交易思路：主要抓着我关注的波动性强的股票做短线，每次交易达到盈利目标就卖出，不贪","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4478186dcfcff12ddea4a67f847f5df8","width":"1242","height":"1350"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/944323012","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1938,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":919106537,"gmtCreate":1576512910529,"gmtModify":1704271900542,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>马爸爸","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>马爸爸","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$马爸爸","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a591d1677161ab6e7eb56e5293d9ea3","width":"1242","height":"1767"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/919106537","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":934792505,"gmtCreate":1574438303307,"gmtModify":1704728046226,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>太好了又有机会上车了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>太好了又有机会上车了","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$太好了又有机会上车了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/934792505","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1569,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":389589,"gmtCreate":1548689586790,"gmtModify":1704788152971,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 短线接回来，今天能回到145就清。","listText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 短线接回来，今天能回到145就清。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 短线接回来，今天能回到145就清。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb017d29d2c8f360a67d5e6c48535e30"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389589","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":409779,"gmtCreate":1551197608316,"gmtModify":1704790686151,"author":{"id":"3467592040701269","authorId":"3467592040701269","name":"mainIssue","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467592040701269","authorIdStr":"3467592040701269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 走你","listText":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 走你","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 走你","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/409779","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}