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咩咩咩咩
2021-09-03
写得好
聪明钱闻风而动!新能源革命的又一个爆发领域?
咩咩咩咩
2020-04-14
$黄金主连(GCmain)$
这么长的直线下来,这是发生什么事了吗???
咩咩咩咩
2020-03-30
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
全球疫情的“至暗时刻”,为何他认为美国经济将V字反转
咩咩咩咩
2019-03-19
$谷歌(GOOG)$ 真的牛逼,欧盟要罚,韩国要查,特朗普怼,就是不跌,回调都不回调。不愧是fanng
咩咩咩咩
2019-03-17
$谷歌(GOOG)$ 神奇......
咩咩咩咩
2019-02-28
$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 这财报有什么问题吗?没有的话买爆啊[害羞][真香]
咩咩咩咩
2019-02-28
$太平洋煤气电力(PCG)$ 死了[呆住][呆住][呆住][呆住][难过][难过][难过][难过]
咩咩咩咩
2019-02-27
$太平洋煤气电力(PCG)$ 话说这货老虎上显示的70倍市盈率怎么算的?股价跌这么多,不可能吧。 我算了一下,2017年净利润16.46亿美元,按现在96亿市值计算,PE也就5.8倍。 即便考虑今年业绩下滑,比如本财季预期eps0.62,简单计算全年eps2.48,按现在股价也就7.5倍左右。
咩咩咩咩
2019-02-27
$太平洋煤气电力(PCG)$ 2月26日Argus将太平洋煤气和电力评级从卖出上调为持有。
咩咩咩咩
2019-02-27
$太平洋煤气电力(PCG)$ 一上去就砸盘,就没人管管吗[愤怒][愤怒]
咩咩咩咩
2019-02-27
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 要是站稳300,后市可期[害羞]
咩咩咩咩
2019-02-25
$美国银行(BAC)$ 没人敢搞新高啊,瓶颈
咩咩咩咩
2019-02-25
$太平洋煤气电力(PCG)$ 28日盘前要发财报了。
咩咩咩咩
2019-02-21
$新东方(EDU)$ 真是个神奇的股票,主要是因为交易量太小了。股价变动就很奇怪。
咩咩咩咩
2019-02-20
$新东方(EDU)$ 这股怎么还没跌[惊讶][惊讶]大家好有耐心[无语][无语]
咩咩咩咩
2019-02-20
$太平洋煤气电力(PCG)$ 今天涨的原因:花旗说这家公司值33美元/股,而且这还是考虑到大火的影响,否则这家公司值66美元。
咩咩咩咩
2019-02-15
$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今天的行情是这样的,之前下调了预期,然后现在发布的财报达到了下调后的预期,而且有其他亮点,所以一开始长了很多。 但是正好碰上美国经济数据不好,消费数据创9年来最惨,今晚还有消费数据要出,说白了就是大盘向下。到时要看英伟达牛逼还是大盘惨烈了,要是大盘大跌,这边估计也扛不住。 至于期权双杀,那些赌末日深度虚值期权的变废纸很正常,要是买高实值、非末日的期权,哪有那么容易被杀嘛。
咩咩咩咩
2019-01-31
$微软(MSFT)$ 这财报卖到四个点没必要了吧……行行行,有本事你们卖到100以下。
咩咩咩咩
2019-01-26
$新东方(EDU)$ 这股好像没什么人买卖呀,价格半天不动的。
咩咩咩咩
2019-01-18
$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$ 终于跌了,要不然我还以为没天理了。
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11:27","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"聪明钱闻风而动!新能源革命的又一个爆发领域?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2164840520","media":"格隆汇","summary":"看看机构在推什么?","content":"<p>可以说,过去及未来相当长的一段时间,我们会围绕这个图进行投资,从能源生产端到能源消纳端,再到中间的能源传输和能源载体。不同的是,不同的时点,市场关注的方向不同而已。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84b2701013b2e0f1fc8cae67aa0be96d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>风电昨天变成了市场大热门,在wind的概念板块中,以9.78%的涨幅排名市场第一,整个板块28只个股,17只钉在了涨停板上。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdba05a1d348078ae80060dd5cf4e576\" tg-width=\"1078\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从消息的角度,全球前五大风机制造商之一的西门子歌美飒首席执行官Andreas Nauen接受媒体采访时表示,将暂停在中国的风机销售业务,并在全球范围内涨价5%。Nauen表示,和许多西方其他整机供应商一样,西门子歌美飒在中国本土整机商崛起后,竞争力已大不如前。因此,中国市场已经不是的西门子歌美飒关注的重点,同时正在考虑放弃的还有俄罗斯和土耳其市场。</p>\n<p>另外一个,中国正在规划风电光伏大基地项目,预计整体总量为400GW,预计有一半的规模将在十四五建成,这是继整县推进之后,新能源国家的又一重大规划,将推动中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">国新能源</a>项目建设再上新台阶,预计十四五年均新增装机将从100GW上调到130-150GW,比预期提升30%-50%。其中预计风电光伏各占一半,另有少量光热项目。</p>\n<p>这两个消息也是引爆昨天市场的一个导火索。</p>\n<p>看了下风电的行业情况</p>\n<p>行业空间,未来的世界肯定是可再生能源的,这个肯定没错,而可再生能源的几个种类,水电资源禀赋的天花板很明显,核电生物能等等这些也无法上量,唯二能够大规模上量的,只有光伏和风电。</p>\n<p>风电的行业空间,在2022-2025年大概平均年复合的新增装机容量增速大概是15%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8553d825d3734f02de69b9d6b88f576c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>15%按理说是个很高的增速,但是和光伏比下,就稍微低一点,光伏预计未来几年的年复合增速在25%,保守一点,也在20%之上。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff58e2dc2dfd383eb7e4e3ab62f252e6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从成本角度来说,陆上风电的平准化度电成本是要低于光伏的,但总安装成本,还是没有光伏下降但快,而且预计未来光伏下降的更快。这些也是市场喜欢光伏,但不喜欢风电的主要几个原因。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8f735d96f16012bc996bcd4eb3487e8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d18a9a93342f5702ef6398af8215c02\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"796\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>行业格局,从过去两年风机市占率的情况看,这个行业的格局还是比较乱,19年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002202\">金风科技</a>,远景能源,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601615\">明阳智能</a>占比较高,三家占比超过50%。2020年,头部公司又多了一个上海电器。到2021年上半年,行业格局几乎又换一个样子,变成了远景,中车风电,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02208\">金风科技</a>和运达风电。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc769c1a0c1143159890a2a60c62060\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec613039aab219f8b06bc31ad00f3b43\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这样的竞争格局,基本可以说明一件事,这个行业的技术门槛不是很高,公司可能拼的是成本控制,销售,或者渠道等其他因素。</p>\n<p>虽然风电这个行业似乎不如光伏,但是架不住,风电板块的估值低啊。在通威,隆基50倍估值的时候,风电的几个龙头,金风科技18倍,明阳智能23倍。</p>\n<p>然后从产业链的角度来说,风塔和叶片占了主要的成本。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78759df9faf7a3d92a0310b019f4385a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5b546de023df94847dff4e21bf20b01\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"745\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>关于投资主线,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">浙商证券</a>建议关注两条主线——主机厂和核心零部件</p>\n<p><b>一、主机厂短期业绩弹性大</b></p>\n<p>主机厂短期业绩弹性大。一般主机厂收入确认中当年新签订单约占 25%,去年新签订单占比50%和前年新签订单占比25%。1)从招标量来看,2019年、2020年国内风电机组招标量分别为65.2GW、31.1GW;2)从招标价格来看,以3MW机组为例,2019年6-12月平均价格为3875元/KW、2020年平均价格为3618 元/KW(不含塔筒价格),而2021年3、4月平均招标价格为2672元/KW,同比2019年6-12月下降31%,同比 2020年下降26%,因此主机厂2021年确认收入中将有75%左右来自2019年、2002年签订的高价订单;3)从零部件价格来看,陆上风电经历2019年、2020年大幅抢装,2021年不再补贴后零部件供应价格也出现一定程度的下降。高价订单确认收入和陆上风电零部件价格下跌带来的剪刀差扩大将提升主机厂的毛利率。建议关注<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300772\">运达股份</a>、明阳智能和金风科技。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa505d0e88b857fc14545a4a48deb885\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>二、核心零部件</b></p>\n<p>核心零部件看好市场规模较大、竞争格局良好的细分领域龙头。推荐具备全球竞争优势、领先布局大型化铸件的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603218\">日月股份</a>、行业集中度高的主轴供应商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300443\">金雷股份</a>、国产化程的度低的轴承生产商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300850\">新强联</a>,关注市场空间大、竞争格局较为分散的塔筒龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002531\">天顺风能</a>、叶片供应商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002080\">中材科技</a>。</p>\n<p>风力发电机组主要部件包括叶片、变频器、齿轮箱、电气控制系统、发电机、主轴、轮毂等。因驱动方式的不同,双馈式和直驱式风机零部件有所差异,主要涉及到有无齿 轮箱。以明阳智能 2.0MW 的双馈式风力发电机组风机为例:单台风机售价639万元,成 本 528万元,其中叶片占材料成本比重最高(23.89%),依次为齿轮箱(18.67%)、变桨 控制系统(17.05%)、发电机(6.67%)。 </p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a77598ee15052bf7beb0aefa5e65d4bd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"769\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>聪明钱闻风而动!新能源革命的又一个爆发领域?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n聪明钱闻风而动!新能源革命的又一个爆发领域?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-03 11:27 北京时间 <a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/484882><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>可以说,过去及未来相当长的一段时间,我们会围绕这个图进行投资,从能源生产端到能源消纳端,再到中间的能源传输和能源载体。不同的是,不同的时点,市场关注的方向不同而已。\n风电昨天变成了市场大热门,在wind的概念板块中,以9.78%的涨幅排名市场第一,整个板块28只个股,17只钉在了涨停板上。\n\n从消息的角度,全球前五大风机制造商之一的西门子歌美飒首席执行官Andreas Nauen接受媒体采访时表示...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/484882\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ace8009badd158895dca20fb627e1735","relate_stocks":{"159875":"新能源","160640":"新能源","399941":"新能源","000941.SH":"新能源"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/484882","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2164840520","content_text":"可以说,过去及未来相当长的一段时间,我们会围绕这个图进行投资,从能源生产端到能源消纳端,再到中间的能源传输和能源载体。不同的是,不同的时点,市场关注的方向不同而已。\n风电昨天变成了市场大热门,在wind的概念板块中,以9.78%的涨幅排名市场第一,整个板块28只个股,17只钉在了涨停板上。\n\n从消息的角度,全球前五大风机制造商之一的西门子歌美飒首席执行官Andreas Nauen接受媒体采访时表示,将暂停在中国的风机销售业务,并在全球范围内涨价5%。Nauen表示,和许多西方其他整机供应商一样,西门子歌美飒在中国本土整机商崛起后,竞争力已大不如前。因此,中国市场已经不是的西门子歌美飒关注的重点,同时正在考虑放弃的还有俄罗斯和土耳其市场。\n另外一个,中国正在规划风电光伏大基地项目,预计整体总量为400GW,预计有一半的规模将在十四五建成,这是继整县推进之后,新能源国家的又一重大规划,将推动中国新能源项目建设再上新台阶,预计十四五年均新增装机将从100GW上调到130-150GW,比预期提升30%-50%。其中预计风电光伏各占一半,另有少量光热项目。\n这两个消息也是引爆昨天市场的一个导火索。\n看了下风电的行业情况\n行业空间,未来的世界肯定是可再生能源的,这个肯定没错,而可再生能源的几个种类,水电资源禀赋的天花板很明显,核电生物能等等这些也无法上量,唯二能够大规模上量的,只有光伏和风电。\n风电的行业空间,在2022-2025年大概平均年复合的新增装机容量增速大概是15%\n\n15%按理说是个很高的增速,但是和光伏比下,就稍微低一点,光伏预计未来几年的年复合增速在25%,保守一点,也在20%之上。\n\n从成本角度来说,陆上风电的平准化度电成本是要低于光伏的,但总安装成本,还是没有光伏下降但快,而且预计未来光伏下降的更快。这些也是市场喜欢光伏,但不喜欢风电的主要几个原因。\n\n\n行业格局,从过去两年风机市占率的情况看,这个行业的格局还是比较乱,19年金风科技,远景能源,明阳智能占比较高,三家占比超过50%。2020年,头部公司又多了一个上海电器。到2021年上半年,行业格局几乎又换一个样子,变成了远景,中车风电,金风科技和运达风电。\n\n\n这样的竞争格局,基本可以说明一件事,这个行业的技术门槛不是很高,公司可能拼的是成本控制,销售,或者渠道等其他因素。\n虽然风电这个行业似乎不如光伏,但是架不住,风电板块的估值低啊。在通威,隆基50倍估值的时候,风电的几个龙头,金风科技18倍,明阳智能23倍。\n然后从产业链的角度来说,风塔和叶片占了主要的成本。\n\n\n关于投资主线,浙商证券建议关注两条主线——主机厂和核心零部件\n一、主机厂短期业绩弹性大\n主机厂短期业绩弹性大。一般主机厂收入确认中当年新签订单约占 25%,去年新签订单占比50%和前年新签订单占比25%。1)从招标量来看,2019年、2020年国内风电机组招标量分别为65.2GW、31.1GW;2)从招标价格来看,以3MW机组为例,2019年6-12月平均价格为3875元/KW、2020年平均价格为3618 元/KW(不含塔筒价格),而2021年3、4月平均招标价格为2672元/KW,同比2019年6-12月下降31%,同比 2020年下降26%,因此主机厂2021年确认收入中将有75%左右来自2019年、2002年签订的高价订单;3)从零部件价格来看,陆上风电经历2019年、2020年大幅抢装,2021年不再补贴后零部件供应价格也出现一定程度的下降。高价订单确认收入和陆上风电零部件价格下跌带来的剪刀差扩大将提升主机厂的毛利率。建议关注运达股份、明阳智能和金风科技。\n\n二、核心零部件\n核心零部件看好市场规模较大、竞争格局良好的细分领域龙头。推荐具备全球竞争优势、领先布局大型化铸件的日月股份、行业集中度高的主轴供应商金雷股份、国产化程的度低的轴承生产商新强联,关注市场空间大、竞争格局较为分散的塔筒龙头天顺风能、叶片供应商中材科技。\n风力发电机组主要部件包括叶片、变频器、齿轮箱、电气控制系统、发电机、主轴、轮毂等。因驱动方式的不同,双馈式和直驱式风机零部件有所差异,主要涉及到有无齿 轮箱。以明阳智能 2.0MW 的双馈式风力发电机组风机为例:单台风机售价639万元,成 本 528万元,其中叶片占材料成本比重最高(23.89%),依次为齿轮箱(18.67%)、变桨 控制系统(17.05%)、发电机(6.67%)。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":928739362,"gmtCreate":1586878945356,"gmtModify":1704362406539,"author":{"id":"3467532638458791","authorId":"3467532638458791","name":"咩咩咩咩","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/8298ecc8358fe972873aee61eab8cfd8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467532638458791","authorIdStr":"3467532638458791"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连(GCmain)$</a>这么长的直线下来,这是发生什么事了吗???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连(GCmain)$</a>这么长的直线下来,这是发生什么事了吗???","text":"$黄金主连(GCmain)$这么长的直线下来,这是发生什么事了吗???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/928739362","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":929533705,"gmtCreate":1585511257207,"gmtModify":1704358119977,"author":{"id":"3467532638458791","authorId":"3467532638458791","name":"咩咩咩咩","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/8298ecc8358fe972873aee61eab8cfd8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467532638458791","authorIdStr":"3467532638458791"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/929533705","repostId":"1171651203","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171651203","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"国泰君安研究","home_visible":1,"media_name":"国泰君安证券研究","id":"1051739769","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd5c807ac304ce7a9da871e241d8323"},"pubTimestamp":1585439461,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171651203?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-29 07:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"全球疫情的“至暗时刻”,为何他认为美国经济将V字反转","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171651203","media":"国泰君安证券研究","summary":"经过了一周的大幅反弹后,美股在周五收盘前的大幅杀跌给这个周末蒙上了一层阴影。而美国确诊人数的大幅攀升,也让市场再次忧虑,疫情拐点究竟何时才能到来。\n本周,国泰君安总量团队联手产品中心推出了“对话全球·","content":"<p><span>经过了一周的大幅反弹后,美股在周五收盘前的大幅杀跌给这个周末蒙上了一层阴影。而美国确诊人数的大幅攀升,也让市场再次忧虑,疫情拐点究竟何时才能到来。</span></p>\n<p><span>本周,国泰君安总量团队联手产品中心推出了“对话全球·美国特别周”,我们希望通过与海外第一线的专家对话,带来更一手的观点和声音。</span></p>\n<p><span>第三期节目,和我们连线的是 Gavekal Research美国宏观首席分析师Will Denyer。与之前我们聊的持悲观态度的TS Lombard不同,Will Denyer认为美国经济将呈现V型复苏,看空美元、看多企业债、对股票谨慎乐观。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>01、为什么看空美元?</span></b></p>\n<p><span><b>Q:现在市场对美元的分歧很大,最近震荡的也很厉害,市场上有三个看多美元的逻辑——美元短缺、欧洲疫情比美国更难防控、新兴市场尾部风险。您怎么看?</b></span></p>\n<p><span><b>Will Denyer</b></span><span>:</span></p>\n<p><span>在新冠疫情爆发之前,美元指数已经持续走弱了一段时间,但随着新冠疫情引发全球资金的避险情绪,美元指数开始持续走强。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8434516e3da29fcbe606a7bcdb5e334d\"></p>\n<p><b><span>我们认为美元接下来会重新进入贬值通道,主要基于以下几个理由:</span></b></p>\n<p><span>1. 美国疫情的恶化和最近初次领取失业救助金人数的激增削弱了美元的避险属性。</span></p>\n<p><span>2. 美元估值偏高,美元实际有效汇率比过去10年的均值高出15%。</span></p>\n<p><span>3. 美联储启动零利率和QE,更加宽松的货币政策不支持美元持续升值。</span></p>\n<p><span>4. 此前美元升值来自于中美贸易摩擦和地缘政治,这些因素的影响已经减弱。</span></p>\n<p><span>5. 美国国内政策风险可能利空美元,比如美国大选。</span></p>\n<p><span>幅度方面,一旦美元重新进入贬值通道,大概有15%的贬值下跌幅度,但这个过程可能需要好几年才能完成。</span></p>\n<p><span>至于你提到的欧洲问题,我们相关的研究团队目前对于欧洲的看法较为悲观。一方面是因为欧洲经济一直存在结构性问题,另一方面欧洲央行拥有的政策空间远不如美联储,无法像美联储那样迅速地在两个星期内扩表接近一万亿美元。不过我们欧洲研究团队年轻一些的分析师观点会略有不同,具体下次有机会可以请他们介绍一下。</span></p>\n<p><span>关于新兴国家尾部风险的话,目前我还没有一个特别明确的看法,仍然需要观察。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/695be2b72fa9e11a499a759a5c2bc777\"></p>\n<p><b><span>02、为什么对股票谨慎乐观?</span></b></p>\n<p><b>Q:为什么您会对股票资产持谨慎乐观的态度呢?</b></p>\n<p><span><b>Will Denyer</b></span><span>:</span></p>\n<p><span>从相对估值角度,随着美股下跌和美债收益率下行,目前美股盈利收益率和美国国债实际收益率之差为3.9%,而过去20年的平均水平为2.7%,高出一倍标准差。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>这一方面意味着市场已经price in了盈利将下降40%的预期,</span></b><span>另一方面也意味着美股在大幅下跌后长期的配置价值更加凸显。</span></p>\n<p><span>当然,我们对美国股市谨慎乐观是有多个前提的,包括疫情能够及时控制、刺激政策的执行程度较好、以及不爆发大的信用危机。具体情况我后面会一一阐述。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>03、为什么更看好企业债?</span></b></p>\n<p><b><span>Q:虽然我们看到很多对冲工具,但对于美国的高收益债仍很担心,因为除了美国的政策工具可能无法拯救这些高收益债以外,还有一个低油价的问题。</span></b></p>\n<p><b><span>疫情加上油价冲击,利差和息差都还在不断的创新高的情况下,您对于投资级企业债和高收益债的看法是什么样的?</span></b></p>\n<p><b><span>Will Denyer:</span></b></p>\n<p><span>我们接下来看好企业债市场,第一个原因就是利差。</span></p>\n<p><span>在2008年金融危机之后,美国信用利差持续收窄,但是随着新冠疫情的爆发,信用利差迅速扩大到历史高位水平,比20年均值高出一倍标准差。目前的利差水平对于投资者信用风险的补偿更加有吸引力。</span></p>\n<p><span>第二个原因是企业债的实际收益率相较美股盈利收益率有了相对优势。</span></p>\n<p><span>如果我们对比美股盈利收益率和企业债实际收益率,美国疫情爆发后,信用利差的快速走扩使得当前企业债实际收益率高于美股盈利收益率。而随着一季度美股盈利的下降,二者之差会继续走扩。</span></p>\n<p><span>不过由于高收益债存在对能源行业的暴露,所以我们更加看好投资级企业债,尤其考虑到美联储宣布在二级市场上通过SPV购买投资级企业债。</span></p>\n<p><span>我认为,美联储并不希望看到企业债收益率过快上升,导致企业融资成本的增加。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b52922f0002f755ab7beabe43dd49e\"></p>\n<p><b><span>高收益债评级下降和违约的浪潮肯定会到来,尤其是能源行业。</span></b><span>美国国会和美联储所做出政策应对无法逆转这一趋势,但或许可以缓解违约数量。</span></p>\n<p><span>我认为市场已经price in不少的信用风险,信用利差已经比2008更高。不过选择投资级企业债可能在这个阶段会更加相对安全些,因为美联储的企业债信贷便利政策更聚焦在投资级企业,而非高收益企业。</span></p>\n<p><span>另外,投资级企业债中有大量的BBB级债券,它们确实存在评级下调的风险。在美国的一些基金或者资产管理公司,如果对于评级有严格限制,那么配置AAA级或者是AA级的债券比较安全。</span></p>\n<p><span>而对于投资评级灵活度高的机构,我认为如果BBB级评级下调为高收益,其实堕落天使(Fallen angle)是一个更好的捡便宜货的机会。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>04、如何看待全球经济衰退的深度和时间?</span></b></p>\n<p><b><span>Q: 您如何看待全球经济衰退的深度和时间?美国国内市场对美国经济衰退的幅度最悲观的判断是什么?美国经济V型复苏判断的最大风险是什么,是美国疫情的演进与失控还是信用风险?</span></b></p>\n<p><span><b>Will Denyer</b></span><span>:</span></p>\n<p><b><span>我认为美国的经济复苏会呈V型,而不是U型。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>这一次的经济衰退可能不同于以往,因为这一次是新冠疫情引发的美国的衰退,初期冲击的程度将会比以往的衰退更加厉害。</span></p>\n<p><span>但是,我认为美国经济可能还是会快速反弹,主要是因为当前的政策应对,无论是货币政策还是财政政策,对于应对疫情带来的经济冲击是足够的,而且后续,政策制定者可能还会采取更进一步的行动。</span></p>\n<p><span>其次,从防控疫情的角度,美国可以借鉴中国的经验措施,在未来一到两个月慢慢开始恢复复工,在不损害经济活动的前提下确保疫情不会继续恶化,平滑疫情确诊病例的曲线。</span></p>\n<p><span>关于对美国经济最悲观情形的看法,我认为取决于疫情的持续时间。如果持续1~2个月,经济会在一季度、二季度会出现大幅下滑,尤其是二季度,经济出现技术性衰退,但是随着逆周期政策对冲,经济还是会出现V型复苏。</span></p>\n<p><span>如果疫情失控或者政府需要很长时间才能控制住疫情,那么市场对整个经济的看法会更加悲观。</span></p>\n<p><span>关于信用风险,在金融危机之后,美国非金融企业的杠杆率偏高,零利率和政府财政政策都会一定程度上缓解企业破产的数量。另外,居民部门的杠杆率比较低,房地产市场相对健康。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>05、海量逆周期政策,是否充足?</span></b></p>\n<p><b><span>Q:各国都陆续推出了大量的逆周期的政策,包括货币政策、财政政策,但是其实市场还面临着很多的不确定性,您觉得是否充足,如何评估?</span></b></p>\n<p><b><span>Will Denyer:</span></b></p>\n<p><span>我认为当前美国实施的货币政策和财政政策是足够稳定局面,同时缓解新冠疫情带来的经济影响的。</span></p>\n<p><span>首先是货币政策,在经历过2008年金融危机后,我认为这一次美联储行动得非常迅速,同时出台的政策力度也非常大。当美联储意识到海外美元流动性紧张,他们迅速和很多海外央行进行大量的美元流动性互换。对于企业债市场,美联储启动了金融危机时期的流动性工具,同时也推出了些新的工具,政策出台的速度和力度都是令人印象深刻。</span></p>\n<p><span>你可能会说,这一次和金融危机不同的是,可能只有新冠疫情得到控制,市场才有可能见底。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>但是我认为市场也许会更早见底。因为在金融危机期间,市场在2009年3月见底,早于财政刺激政策出炉,也早于经济增速、失业率、房地产市场恢复正常,主要是因为两个政策出台:</span></b></p>\n<p><span>第一,美联储放松了银行资产的逐日盯市(Marked-to-market)会计准则,从而阻止了资产价格的螺旋式的下跌,缓解了银行因为资产损失而不得不抛售资产来满足资本监管要求。</span></p>\n<p><span>第二个,美联储推出了定向ABS流动性便利(TALF),主要是向以消费贷款为抵押品的ABS购买者提供贷款,保证私人部门的信贷活动。</span></p>\n<p><span>在恢复投资者信心的一系列政策中,这两个政策起到了非常重要的作用。</span></p>\n<p><span>总结下,我认为目前的货币政策已经很充足。关于财政政策,这一次的2万亿刺激政策,并不是直接扩大政府购买,但是它确实可以纾困企业,资助居民家庭熬过疫情隔离阶段,同时为失业人群提供保障,确保经济机器没有受到伤害。我认为后续如果有必要,财政刺激还是会继续加码。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>06、新冠疫情对美国大选影响几何?</span></b></p>\n<p><b><span>Q:当前国会所出台的2万亿刺激计划,其实更多的集中于流动性纾困企业和资助居民,似乎对避免美国的经济衰退是不够的。今年是大选年,后续民主和共和两党在财政政策上还能达成多大程度的妥协?本次新冠疫情的爆发会对特朗普的连任竞选造成什么样的影响?</span></b></p>\n<p><span><b>Will Denyer:</b></span></p>\n<p><span>我认为财政政策仍然存在空间。首先,我认为当前的政策制定者会吸取2008年的教训,因此这一次政策出台速度和力度会更大。另外,在当前这样的一个危机模式下,没有哪个政党愿意被看成阻碍刺激政策出台。</span></p>\n<p><span>美国最初对待疫情的防控措施是糟糕的。美国并没有吸取中国的经验,没有在疫情爆发前采取措施。尽管特朗普总统现在已经采取了很多的防控措施,例如居家隔离和企业停业,但是在未来的总统辩论中,特朗普一定会因为初期疫情检测和抗疫物资的不足而遭受批评。</span></p>\n<p><span>我认为特朗普在疫情失控前并没有做出必要的防控措施。虽然在二月随着疫情的爆发,特朗普的支持率开始下滑,但是最近特朗普的支持率又回升,因此尚难判断,此次疫情会不会对特朗普造成一个非常大的不利影响。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>预判特朗普能否连任取决于两件事情,经济能不能V型反转,疫情能否在一至两个月内得到控制。</span></b><span>如果这两个条件满足的话,特朗普连任的概率非常大。不然他可能会被拜登替代。</span></p>\n<p><span>至于拜登上台或者特朗普连任对美国金融市场的影响,美元方面,我认为如果是拜登上台的话,那么对美元是利空,因为他会增加税收,加强监管,同时不支持增加关税,这3点都会抑制美元升值。就算特朗普连任,可能他也不会像第一个任期那样利好美元。</span></p>\n<p><span>关于股票市场,我认为影响可能不大。作为民主党前副总统,拜登的行为和政策更加可预测,这是一个利好,但是他主张增加税收和加强监管,这是一个利空。</span></p>\n<p><span>此外我认为市场还需关注国会选举。目前民主党掌握着众议院的大多数席位,共和党掌握着参议院的大多数席位,如果最后拜登成为总统,但国会两院仍然处于一个分裂的局面。那么民主党的税改政策将很难得到实施。</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n全球疫情的“至暗时刻”,为何他认为美国经济将V字反转\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1051739769\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd5c807ac304ce7a9da871e241d8323);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">国泰君安证券研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-03-29 07:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><span>经过了一周的大幅反弹后,美股在周五收盘前的大幅杀跌给这个周末蒙上了一层阴影。而美国确诊人数的大幅攀升,也让市场再次忧虑,疫情拐点究竟何时才能到来。</span></p>\n<p><span>本周,国泰君安总量团队联手产品中心推出了“对话全球·美国特别周”,我们希望通过与海外第一线的专家对话,带来更一手的观点和声音。</span></p>\n<p><span>第三期节目,和我们连线的是 Gavekal Research美国宏观首席分析师Will Denyer。与之前我们聊的持悲观态度的TS Lombard不同,Will Denyer认为美国经济将呈现V型复苏,看空美元、看多企业债、对股票谨慎乐观。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>01、为什么看空美元?</span></b></p>\n<p><span><b>Q:现在市场对美元的分歧很大,最近震荡的也很厉害,市场上有三个看多美元的逻辑——美元短缺、欧洲疫情比美国更难防控、新兴市场尾部风险。您怎么看?</b></span></p>\n<p><span><b>Will Denyer</b></span><span>:</span></p>\n<p><span>在新冠疫情爆发之前,美元指数已经持续走弱了一段时间,但随着新冠疫情引发全球资金的避险情绪,美元指数开始持续走强。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8434516e3da29fcbe606a7bcdb5e334d\"></p>\n<p><b><span>我们认为美元接下来会重新进入贬值通道,主要基于以下几个理由:</span></b></p>\n<p><span>1. 美国疫情的恶化和最近初次领取失业救助金人数的激增削弱了美元的避险属性。</span></p>\n<p><span>2. 美元估值偏高,美元实际有效汇率比过去10年的均值高出15%。</span></p>\n<p><span>3. 美联储启动零利率和QE,更加宽松的货币政策不支持美元持续升值。</span></p>\n<p><span>4. 此前美元升值来自于中美贸易摩擦和地缘政治,这些因素的影响已经减弱。</span></p>\n<p><span>5. 美国国内政策风险可能利空美元,比如美国大选。</span></p>\n<p><span>幅度方面,一旦美元重新进入贬值通道,大概有15%的贬值下跌幅度,但这个过程可能需要好几年才能完成。</span></p>\n<p><span>至于你提到的欧洲问题,我们相关的研究团队目前对于欧洲的看法较为悲观。一方面是因为欧洲经济一直存在结构性问题,另一方面欧洲央行拥有的政策空间远不如美联储,无法像美联储那样迅速地在两个星期内扩表接近一万亿美元。不过我们欧洲研究团队年轻一些的分析师观点会略有不同,具体下次有机会可以请他们介绍一下。</span></p>\n<p><span>关于新兴国家尾部风险的话,目前我还没有一个特别明确的看法,仍然需要观察。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/695be2b72fa9e11a499a759a5c2bc777\"></p>\n<p><b><span>02、为什么对股票谨慎乐观?</span></b></p>\n<p><b>Q:为什么您会对股票资产持谨慎乐观的态度呢?</b></p>\n<p><span><b>Will Denyer</b></span><span>:</span></p>\n<p><span>从相对估值角度,随着美股下跌和美债收益率下行,目前美股盈利收益率和美国国债实际收益率之差为3.9%,而过去20年的平均水平为2.7%,高出一倍标准差。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>这一方面意味着市场已经price in了盈利将下降40%的预期,</span></b><span>另一方面也意味着美股在大幅下跌后长期的配置价值更加凸显。</span></p>\n<p><span>当然,我们对美国股市谨慎乐观是有多个前提的,包括疫情能够及时控制、刺激政策的执行程度较好、以及不爆发大的信用危机。具体情况我后面会一一阐述。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>03、为什么更看好企业债?</span></b></p>\n<p><b><span>Q:虽然我们看到很多对冲工具,但对于美国的高收益债仍很担心,因为除了美国的政策工具可能无法拯救这些高收益债以外,还有一个低油价的问题。</span></b></p>\n<p><b><span>疫情加上油价冲击,利差和息差都还在不断的创新高的情况下,您对于投资级企业债和高收益债的看法是什么样的?</span></b></p>\n<p><b><span>Will Denyer:</span></b></p>\n<p><span>我们接下来看好企业债市场,第一个原因就是利差。</span></p>\n<p><span>在2008年金融危机之后,美国信用利差持续收窄,但是随着新冠疫情的爆发,信用利差迅速扩大到历史高位水平,比20年均值高出一倍标准差。目前的利差水平对于投资者信用风险的补偿更加有吸引力。</span></p>\n<p><span>第二个原因是企业债的实际收益率相较美股盈利收益率有了相对优势。</span></p>\n<p><span>如果我们对比美股盈利收益率和企业债实际收益率,美国疫情爆发后,信用利差的快速走扩使得当前企业债实际收益率高于美股盈利收益率。而随着一季度美股盈利的下降,二者之差会继续走扩。</span></p>\n<p><span>不过由于高收益债存在对能源行业的暴露,所以我们更加看好投资级企业债,尤其考虑到美联储宣布在二级市场上通过SPV购买投资级企业债。</span></p>\n<p><span>我认为,美联储并不希望看到企业债收益率过快上升,导致企业融资成本的增加。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b52922f0002f755ab7beabe43dd49e\"></p>\n<p><b><span>高收益债评级下降和违约的浪潮肯定会到来,尤其是能源行业。</span></b><span>美国国会和美联储所做出政策应对无法逆转这一趋势,但或许可以缓解违约数量。</span></p>\n<p><span>我认为市场已经price in不少的信用风险,信用利差已经比2008更高。不过选择投资级企业债可能在这个阶段会更加相对安全些,因为美联储的企业债信贷便利政策更聚焦在投资级企业,而非高收益企业。</span></p>\n<p><span>另外,投资级企业债中有大量的BBB级债券,它们确实存在评级下调的风险。在美国的一些基金或者资产管理公司,如果对于评级有严格限制,那么配置AAA级或者是AA级的债券比较安全。</span></p>\n<p><span>而对于投资评级灵活度高的机构,我认为如果BBB级评级下调为高收益,其实堕落天使(Fallen angle)是一个更好的捡便宜货的机会。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>04、如何看待全球经济衰退的深度和时间?</span></b></p>\n<p><b><span>Q: 您如何看待全球经济衰退的深度和时间?美国国内市场对美国经济衰退的幅度最悲观的判断是什么?美国经济V型复苏判断的最大风险是什么,是美国疫情的演进与失控还是信用风险?</span></b></p>\n<p><span><b>Will Denyer</b></span><span>:</span></p>\n<p><b><span>我认为美国的经济复苏会呈V型,而不是U型。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>这一次的经济衰退可能不同于以往,因为这一次是新冠疫情引发的美国的衰退,初期冲击的程度将会比以往的衰退更加厉害。</span></p>\n<p><span>但是,我认为美国经济可能还是会快速反弹,主要是因为当前的政策应对,无论是货币政策还是财政政策,对于应对疫情带来的经济冲击是足够的,而且后续,政策制定者可能还会采取更进一步的行动。</span></p>\n<p><span>其次,从防控疫情的角度,美国可以借鉴中国的经验措施,在未来一到两个月慢慢开始恢复复工,在不损害经济活动的前提下确保疫情不会继续恶化,平滑疫情确诊病例的曲线。</span></p>\n<p><span>关于对美国经济最悲观情形的看法,我认为取决于疫情的持续时间。如果持续1~2个月,经济会在一季度、二季度会出现大幅下滑,尤其是二季度,经济出现技术性衰退,但是随着逆周期政策对冲,经济还是会出现V型复苏。</span></p>\n<p><span>如果疫情失控或者政府需要很长时间才能控制住疫情,那么市场对整个经济的看法会更加悲观。</span></p>\n<p><span>关于信用风险,在金融危机之后,美国非金融企业的杠杆率偏高,零利率和政府财政政策都会一定程度上缓解企业破产的数量。另外,居民部门的杠杆率比较低,房地产市场相对健康。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>05、海量逆周期政策,是否充足?</span></b></p>\n<p><b><span>Q:各国都陆续推出了大量的逆周期的政策,包括货币政策、财政政策,但是其实市场还面临着很多的不确定性,您觉得是否充足,如何评估?</span></b></p>\n<p><b><span>Will Denyer:</span></b></p>\n<p><span>我认为当前美国实施的货币政策和财政政策是足够稳定局面,同时缓解新冠疫情带来的经济影响的。</span></p>\n<p><span>首先是货币政策,在经历过2008年金融危机后,我认为这一次美联储行动得非常迅速,同时出台的政策力度也非常大。当美联储意识到海外美元流动性紧张,他们迅速和很多海外央行进行大量的美元流动性互换。对于企业债市场,美联储启动了金融危机时期的流动性工具,同时也推出了些新的工具,政策出台的速度和力度都是令人印象深刻。</span></p>\n<p><span>你可能会说,这一次和金融危机不同的是,可能只有新冠疫情得到控制,市场才有可能见底。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>但是我认为市场也许会更早见底。因为在金融危机期间,市场在2009年3月见底,早于财政刺激政策出炉,也早于经济增速、失业率、房地产市场恢复正常,主要是因为两个政策出台:</span></b></p>\n<p><span>第一,美联储放松了银行资产的逐日盯市(Marked-to-market)会计准则,从而阻止了资产价格的螺旋式的下跌,缓解了银行因为资产损失而不得不抛售资产来满足资本监管要求。</span></p>\n<p><span>第二个,美联储推出了定向ABS流动性便利(TALF),主要是向以消费贷款为抵押品的ABS购买者提供贷款,保证私人部门的信贷活动。</span></p>\n<p><span>在恢复投资者信心的一系列政策中,这两个政策起到了非常重要的作用。</span></p>\n<p><span>总结下,我认为目前的货币政策已经很充足。关于财政政策,这一次的2万亿刺激政策,并不是直接扩大政府购买,但是它确实可以纾困企业,资助居民家庭熬过疫情隔离阶段,同时为失业人群提供保障,确保经济机器没有受到伤害。我认为后续如果有必要,财政刺激还是会继续加码。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>06、新冠疫情对美国大选影响几何?</span></b></p>\n<p><b><span>Q:当前国会所出台的2万亿刺激计划,其实更多的集中于流动性纾困企业和资助居民,似乎对避免美国的经济衰退是不够的。今年是大选年,后续民主和共和两党在财政政策上还能达成多大程度的妥协?本次新冠疫情的爆发会对特朗普的连任竞选造成什么样的影响?</span></b></p>\n<p><span><b>Will Denyer:</b></span></p>\n<p><span>我认为财政政策仍然存在空间。首先,我认为当前的政策制定者会吸取2008年的教训,因此这一次政策出台速度和力度会更大。另外,在当前这样的一个危机模式下,没有哪个政党愿意被看成阻碍刺激政策出台。</span></p>\n<p><span>美国最初对待疫情的防控措施是糟糕的。美国并没有吸取中国的经验,没有在疫情爆发前采取措施。尽管特朗普总统现在已经采取了很多的防控措施,例如居家隔离和企业停业,但是在未来的总统辩论中,特朗普一定会因为初期疫情检测和抗疫物资的不足而遭受批评。</span></p>\n<p><span>我认为特朗普在疫情失控前并没有做出必要的防控措施。虽然在二月随着疫情的爆发,特朗普的支持率开始下滑,但是最近特朗普的支持率又回升,因此尚难判断,此次疫情会不会对特朗普造成一个非常大的不利影响。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>预判特朗普能否连任取决于两件事情,经济能不能V型反转,疫情能否在一至两个月内得到控制。</span></b><span>如果这两个条件满足的话,特朗普连任的概率非常大。不然他可能会被拜登替代。</span></p>\n<p><span>至于拜登上台或者特朗普连任对美国金融市场的影响,美元方面,我认为如果是拜登上台的话,那么对美元是利空,因为他会增加税收,加强监管,同时不支持增加关税,这3点都会抑制美元升值。就算特朗普连任,可能他也不会像第一个任期那样利好美元。</span></p>\n<p><span>关于股票市场,我认为影响可能不大。作为民主党前副总统,拜登的行为和政策更加可预测,这是一个利好,但是他主张增加税收和加强监管,这是一个利空。</span></p>\n<p><span>此外我认为市场还需关注国会选举。目前民主党掌握着众议院的大多数席位,共和党掌握着参议院的大多数席位,如果最后拜登成为总统,但国会两院仍然处于一个分裂的局面。那么民主党的税改政策将很难得到实施。</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171651203","content_text":"经过了一周的大幅反弹后,美股在周五收盘前的大幅杀跌给这个周末蒙上了一层阴影。而美国确诊人数的大幅攀升,也让市场再次忧虑,疫情拐点究竟何时才能到来。\n本周,国泰君安总量团队联手产品中心推出了“对话全球·美国特别周”,我们希望通过与海外第一线的专家对话,带来更一手的观点和声音。\n第三期节目,和我们连线的是 Gavekal Research美国宏观首席分析师Will Denyer。与之前我们聊的持悲观态度的TS Lombard不同,Will Denyer认为美国经济将呈现V型复苏,看空美元、看多企业债、对股票谨慎乐观。\n01、为什么看空美元?\nQ:现在市场对美元的分歧很大,最近震荡的也很厉害,市场上有三个看多美元的逻辑——美元短缺、欧洲疫情比美国更难防控、新兴市场尾部风险。您怎么看?\nWill Denyer:\n在新冠疫情爆发之前,美元指数已经持续走弱了一段时间,但随着新冠疫情引发全球资金的避险情绪,美元指数开始持续走强。\n\n我们认为美元接下来会重新进入贬值通道,主要基于以下几个理由:\n1. 美国疫情的恶化和最近初次领取失业救助金人数的激增削弱了美元的避险属性。\n2. 美元估值偏高,美元实际有效汇率比过去10年的均值高出15%。\n3. 美联储启动零利率和QE,更加宽松的货币政策不支持美元持续升值。\n4. 此前美元升值来自于中美贸易摩擦和地缘政治,这些因素的影响已经减弱。\n5. 美国国内政策风险可能利空美元,比如美国大选。\n幅度方面,一旦美元重新进入贬值通道,大概有15%的贬值下跌幅度,但这个过程可能需要好几年才能完成。\n至于你提到的欧洲问题,我们相关的研究团队目前对于欧洲的看法较为悲观。一方面是因为欧洲经济一直存在结构性问题,另一方面欧洲央行拥有的政策空间远不如美联储,无法像美联储那样迅速地在两个星期内扩表接近一万亿美元。不过我们欧洲研究团队年轻一些的分析师观点会略有不同,具体下次有机会可以请他们介绍一下。\n关于新兴国家尾部风险的话,目前我还没有一个特别明确的看法,仍然需要观察。\n\n02、为什么对股票谨慎乐观?\nQ:为什么您会对股票资产持谨慎乐观的态度呢?\nWill Denyer:\n从相对估值角度,随着美股下跌和美债收益率下行,目前美股盈利收益率和美国国债实际收益率之差为3.9%,而过去20年的平均水平为2.7%,高出一倍标准差。\n这一方面意味着市场已经price in了盈利将下降40%的预期,另一方面也意味着美股在大幅下跌后长期的配置价值更加凸显。\n当然,我们对美国股市谨慎乐观是有多个前提的,包括疫情能够及时控制、刺激政策的执行程度较好、以及不爆发大的信用危机。具体情况我后面会一一阐述。\n03、为什么更看好企业债?\nQ:虽然我们看到很多对冲工具,但对于美国的高收益债仍很担心,因为除了美国的政策工具可能无法拯救这些高收益债以外,还有一个低油价的问题。\n疫情加上油价冲击,利差和息差都还在不断的创新高的情况下,您对于投资级企业债和高收益债的看法是什么样的?\nWill Denyer:\n我们接下来看好企业债市场,第一个原因就是利差。\n在2008年金融危机之后,美国信用利差持续收窄,但是随着新冠疫情的爆发,信用利差迅速扩大到历史高位水平,比20年均值高出一倍标准差。目前的利差水平对于投资者信用风险的补偿更加有吸引力。\n第二个原因是企业债的实际收益率相较美股盈利收益率有了相对优势。\n如果我们对比美股盈利收益率和企业债实际收益率,美国疫情爆发后,信用利差的快速走扩使得当前企业债实际收益率高于美股盈利收益率。而随着一季度美股盈利的下降,二者之差会继续走扩。\n不过由于高收益债存在对能源行业的暴露,所以我们更加看好投资级企业债,尤其考虑到美联储宣布在二级市场上通过SPV购买投资级企业债。\n我认为,美联储并不希望看到企业债收益率过快上升,导致企业融资成本的增加。\n\n高收益债评级下降和违约的浪潮肯定会到来,尤其是能源行业。美国国会和美联储所做出政策应对无法逆转这一趋势,但或许可以缓解违约数量。\n我认为市场已经price in不少的信用风险,信用利差已经比2008更高。不过选择投资级企业债可能在这个阶段会更加相对安全些,因为美联储的企业债信贷便利政策更聚焦在投资级企业,而非高收益企业。\n另外,投资级企业债中有大量的BBB级债券,它们确实存在评级下调的风险。在美国的一些基金或者资产管理公司,如果对于评级有严格限制,那么配置AAA级或者是AA级的债券比较安全。\n而对于投资评级灵活度高的机构,我认为如果BBB级评级下调为高收益,其实堕落天使(Fallen angle)是一个更好的捡便宜货的机会。\n04、如何看待全球经济衰退的深度和时间?\nQ: 您如何看待全球经济衰退的深度和时间?美国国内市场对美国经济衰退的幅度最悲观的判断是什么?美国经济V型复苏判断的最大风险是什么,是美国疫情的演进与失控还是信用风险?\nWill Denyer:\n我认为美国的经济复苏会呈V型,而不是U型。\n这一次的经济衰退可能不同于以往,因为这一次是新冠疫情引发的美国的衰退,初期冲击的程度将会比以往的衰退更加厉害。\n但是,我认为美国经济可能还是会快速反弹,主要是因为当前的政策应对,无论是货币政策还是财政政策,对于应对疫情带来的经济冲击是足够的,而且后续,政策制定者可能还会采取更进一步的行动。\n其次,从防控疫情的角度,美国可以借鉴中国的经验措施,在未来一到两个月慢慢开始恢复复工,在不损害经济活动的前提下确保疫情不会继续恶化,平滑疫情确诊病例的曲线。\n关于对美国经济最悲观情形的看法,我认为取决于疫情的持续时间。如果持续1~2个月,经济会在一季度、二季度会出现大幅下滑,尤其是二季度,经济出现技术性衰退,但是随着逆周期政策对冲,经济还是会出现V型复苏。\n如果疫情失控或者政府需要很长时间才能控制住疫情,那么市场对整个经济的看法会更加悲观。\n关于信用风险,在金融危机之后,美国非金融企业的杠杆率偏高,零利率和政府财政政策都会一定程度上缓解企业破产的数量。另外,居民部门的杠杆率比较低,房地产市场相对健康。\n05、海量逆周期政策,是否充足?\nQ:各国都陆续推出了大量的逆周期的政策,包括货币政策、财政政策,但是其实市场还面临着很多的不确定性,您觉得是否充足,如何评估?\nWill Denyer:\n我认为当前美国实施的货币政策和财政政策是足够稳定局面,同时缓解新冠疫情带来的经济影响的。\n首先是货币政策,在经历过2008年金融危机后,我认为这一次美联储行动得非常迅速,同时出台的政策力度也非常大。当美联储意识到海外美元流动性紧张,他们迅速和很多海外央行进行大量的美元流动性互换。对于企业债市场,美联储启动了金融危机时期的流动性工具,同时也推出了些新的工具,政策出台的速度和力度都是令人印象深刻。\n你可能会说,这一次和金融危机不同的是,可能只有新冠疫情得到控制,市场才有可能见底。\n但是我认为市场也许会更早见底。因为在金融危机期间,市场在2009年3月见底,早于财政刺激政策出炉,也早于经济增速、失业率、房地产市场恢复正常,主要是因为两个政策出台:\n第一,美联储放松了银行资产的逐日盯市(Marked-to-market)会计准则,从而阻止了资产价格的螺旋式的下跌,缓解了银行因为资产损失而不得不抛售资产来满足资本监管要求。\n第二个,美联储推出了定向ABS流动性便利(TALF),主要是向以消费贷款为抵押品的ABS购买者提供贷款,保证私人部门的信贷活动。\n在恢复投资者信心的一系列政策中,这两个政策起到了非常重要的作用。\n总结下,我认为目前的货币政策已经很充足。关于财政政策,这一次的2万亿刺激政策,并不是直接扩大政府购买,但是它确实可以纾困企业,资助居民家庭熬过疫情隔离阶段,同时为失业人群提供保障,确保经济机器没有受到伤害。我认为后续如果有必要,财政刺激还是会继续加码。\n06、新冠疫情对美国大选影响几何?\nQ:当前国会所出台的2万亿刺激计划,其实更多的集中于流动性纾困企业和资助居民,似乎对避免美国的经济衰退是不够的。今年是大选年,后续民主和共和两党在财政政策上还能达成多大程度的妥协?本次新冠疫情的爆发会对特朗普的连任竞选造成什么样的影响?\nWill Denyer:\n我认为财政政策仍然存在空间。首先,我认为当前的政策制定者会吸取2008年的教训,因此这一次政策出台速度和力度会更大。另外,在当前这样的一个危机模式下,没有哪个政党愿意被看成阻碍刺激政策出台。\n美国最初对待疫情的防控措施是糟糕的。美国并没有吸取中国的经验,没有在疫情爆发前采取措施。尽管特朗普总统现在已经采取了很多的防控措施,例如居家隔离和企业停业,但是在未来的总统辩论中,特朗普一定会因为初期疫情检测和抗疫物资的不足而遭受批评。\n我认为特朗普在疫情失控前并没有做出必要的防控措施。虽然在二月随着疫情的爆发,特朗普的支持率开始下滑,但是最近特朗普的支持率又回升,因此尚难判断,此次疫情会不会对特朗普造成一个非常大的不利影响。\n预判特朗普能否连任取决于两件事情,经济能不能V型反转,疫情能否在一至两个月内得到控制。如果这两个条件满足的话,特朗普连任的概率非常大。不然他可能会被拜登替代。\n至于拜登上台或者特朗普连任对美国金融市场的影响,美元方面,我认为如果是拜登上台的话,那么对美元是利空,因为他会增加税收,加强监管,同时不支持增加关税,这3点都会抑制美元升值。就算特朗普连任,可能他也不会像第一个任期那样利好美元。\n关于股票市场,我认为影响可能不大。作为民主党前副总统,拜登的行为和政策更加可预测,这是一个利好,但是他主张增加税收和加强监管,这是一个利空。\n此外我认为市场还需关注国会选举。目前民主党掌握着众议院的大多数席位,共和党掌握着参议院的大多数席位,如果最后拜登成为总统,但国会两院仍然处于一个分裂的局面。那么民主党的税改政策将很难得到实施。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1839,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":434175,"gmtCreate":1553003948062,"gmtModify":1704793672952,"author":{"id":"3467532638458791","authorId":"3467532638458791","name":"咩咩咩咩","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/8298ecc8358fe972873aee61eab8cfd8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467532638458791","authorIdStr":"3467532638458791"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$谷歌(GOOG)$ 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