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贵州茅台跌破1500元，尾盘跌幅扩大至近8%
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">贵州茅台</a>跌破1500元，尾盘跌幅扩大至近8%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a339c6c4be6de8c5689d72cd790fd04\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aba16b4f88c90908701f4ff26fee613c","relate_stocks":{"600519":"贵州茅台","LU0072913022.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - GREATER CHINA \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1720050803.USD":"安联全方位中国股票基金","LU0405327148.USD":"ALLSPRING CHINA A FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1105468828.SGD":"Allianz Total Return Asian Equity AM DIS H2-SGD","BK0187":"一线龙头","LU0348814723.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC NC","LU0359202008.SGD":"Blackrock China Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0878005551.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC ASIA ALLOCATION OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1328615791.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ALL CHINA EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK0175":"白马股","LU0516423174.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA 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11:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"李迅雷：现在A股比2018年时更低，美联储加息或已近尾声","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169779523","media":"格隆汇","summary":"在加息结束后，全球货币贬值的节奏，也或将随之放缓。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>日前，<b>中泰证券首席经济学家李迅雷就当下市场情况、美联储加息、人民币贬值等市场关心的一系列问题做出了观点分享。</b></p><p>针对美联储加息趋势，李迅雷表达了明确的观点。</p><p><b>他认为，美联储加息已经到了强弩之末的阶段，今年年末或者明年年初再加一次，加息可能就结束了。</b></p><p><b>在加息结束后，全球货币贬值的节奏，也或将随之放缓。</b></p><p>在人民币贬值问题上，李迅雷也表示，不必对人民币持续贬值过于忧虑，当前人民币其实也不具备持续大幅贬值的基础。</p><p><b>对于当前投资者信心不足的股市，在跌破3000点的今天，李迅雷认为，现在的位置，比2018年的时候更低。</b></p><p>毕竟从2018年到现在也有三五年的时间了，这个期间，整个上市公司盈利还是在增长过程当中。</p><p>从估值来看，目前的估值水平已经低于2018年。</p><p><b>政策面宽松，降准也是有期望的</b></p><p><b>问：</b>请迅雷总来分享一下，对当下的市场有什么看法？</p><p><b>李迅雷：</b>从政策面来讲，应该还是比较宽松的，无论是货币政策还是财政政策。</p><p>在美国还在不断加息的背景之下，我们采取了降息举措，而且，降准也是有期望的。</p><p>另外，在财政政策上面的话，今年的财政政策力度也是非常大。</p><p>除了有对于专项债余额的进一步提振——最近又增加了五千亿，另外，三大政策性银行也在配合我们的财政政策，拉动经济。</p><p>对房地产方面，货币政策、财政政策也双双发力。</p><p>我想，在这方面，有利于经济回稳，也有利于市场信心的提振。</p><p><b>现在的位置，比2018年要更低</b></p><p><b>问：</b>怎么看待当下市场的投资性价比？哪些行业相对而言具备更加突出的性价比？</p><p><b>李迅雷：应该说，现在的位置，比2018年的时候更低。</b></p><p>从估值水平来讲，还是明显要低一些，无论是从传统的行业还是从新兴的行业，应该说，这个位置都还是要低。</p><p>毕竟从2018年到现在也有三五年的时间了，这个期间，整个上市公司盈利还是在增长过程当中。</p><p>我们的政策力度，应该也比2018年的时候要更好一些。</p><p>但是，大家的信心方面……似乎也可以理解，就是越是市场低迷的时候，大家越缺乏信心，大家越缺乏底气。</p><p>现在，在左侧，应该是一个寻找机会的很好的时机。</p><p><b>未来经济增长的动力更多是来自于消费</b></p><p><b>问：</b>下一阶段，中国经济内生动力的源头在哪里？</p><p><b>李迅雷：</b>我觉得，首先，大家对预期的调整很重要，</p><p>人有生命周期，有幼年、少年、青年、老年，有各个阶段。</p><p>现在的中国经济实际上已经到中年阶段了，我们不可能像青少年时代那么有力。</p><p>在这种情况下面，一个劲地问，中国经济什么时候还能够增长10%，显然是不现实的。</p><p>所以我觉得我们要降低预期。</p><p>更何况，现在全球经济都进入到一个比烂的时代。</p><p>我们还是不错的，就不要有过高的预期。</p><p><b>经济增长的动力，我们来看三驾马车，投资、消费、出口。</b></p><p><b>我们现在的投资，房地产的投资，肯定是弱了，负增长。</b></p><p><b>但制造业投资，还是维持在10%以上，这已经非常不错了。</b></p><p>另外一方面的话，消费偏弱。</p><p><b>我觉得，我们未来经济增长的动力更多是来自于消费。</b></p><p>大家一听到这个问题都觉得会摇头，</p><p>觉得消费要靠有钱，债务那么重，六个钱包都空了，怎么可以拉动消费？</p><p><b>我觉得这个不要急，总归是有办法的，现在居民把大量的钱储存在银行里，这不是机会吗？</b></p><p><b>钱不可能一直待在银行里面，他肯定会拿出来，只不过在什么时间拿出来。这个是需要政策，需要一个时机。</b></p><p><b>我觉得中国经济，至少从目前来讲，现在是处在一个相对低点。</b></p><p><b>二季度是最低点，三季度应该比二季度高，四季度比三季度会更高。明年会比今年更高。</b></p><p><b>那么大家到明年一季度的时候，会不会又乐观一点？</b></p><p><b>总归是有办法的。</b></p><p><b>因为目前来讲，整个政府的杠杆水平，相对来讲还是比较低的，我们资源还是比较多的。</b></p><p>不像日本，它完全步入到一个超级老龄化时代。</p><p>更何况，我们要抓住的更多是一个结构性的机会，不是普涨的机会。</p><p>因为行业轮动，最大的行业轮动就是新旧行业的转换。</p><p>传统行业它的景气度是下降的，新兴行业，它景气度是上升的。</p><p>而景气度上升不是说上升一两年，它可能会有一段时间的调整，接下来它还有上升的空间。</p><p>比如说，中国经济也好，全球经济也好，它进入到一个数字经济时代。</p><p>那数字经济时代相对于传统经济来讲的话，它完全不一样了。</p><p><b>数字经济需要什么？</b></p><p><b>人工智能，大数据，需要半导体，需要各种技术手段来支持。</b></p><p>人口老龄化，看上去好像经济增长动力不足了，但是我们的消费需求又上升了。</p><p>尤其在升级消费上面，比如说像机器人的需求要增加，这里面又需要有一个大量的相关的支持。</p><p>国庆期间，C919拿到了适航证了。</p><p>中国大飞机一旦起来的话，中国有多大的市场，那这是不是又有新的动力？</p><p>总而言之，我觉得，经济发展它有它的规律，不同阶段有不同阶段的亮点。</p><p>我们从最初周期性行业占优，到房地产又起来了，到后来消费类又起来了，消费升级了，家电、汽车起来了；</p><p>2019年以后，新能源为代表的碳综合大背景之下的这些行业又起来了。</p><p>总体来讲，我们还是要不断去思考，不断要寻找新的机会，尤其是结构性机会。</p><p><b>美联储加息已是强弩之末再加息一次可能就要结束了</b></p><p><b>问：</b>10年期美债收益率破4，以及美联储后续还要进一步加息的趋势，对国内市场会有什么影响？</p><p><b>李迅雷：</b>这一块来讲，确实影响还是比较明显的。</p><p>美联储一旦加息，美国的股市就要下跌；美国股市下跌，全球股市也都会受到影响。</p><p>我们专门测算过，中国股市跟美国股市的相关性大概是52%。</p><p>所以说这块，还是受影响。</p><p><b>现在就看到一个很奇特的现象，美国的经济数据一好，美国股市就大跌。</b></p><p><b>所以我们现在都在期待着美国经济数据变差。</b></p><p>破4之后的话，我觉得，美国的经济它是会下行的。</p><p>我觉得我们也不用对美联储加息这么恐惧。</p><p><b>我有一个经验，就是根据美联储以往的历史，它基本上是走在曲线后面的。</b></p><p><b>就是，它的加息是滞后的，不是领先的。</b></p><p><b>既然是这样的话，我想美联储加息应该也差不多到强弩之末了。</b></p><p><b>今年年底或者明年年初再加一次的话，基本上，我认为，可能就结束了。</b></p><p>整个全球的货币的贬值，在这方面的节奏可能也会放缓。</p><p>这是我的一个判断，供大家参考。</p><p><b>在7以上的情况下，人民币不具备持续大幅贬值的基础</b></p><p><b>问：</b>人民币对美元快速贬值，您对这件事情怎么看？</p><p><b>李迅雷：</b>在国庆期间，人民币又大幅升值了，大家都有一个思维的惯性，就觉得，一旦人民币贬值，会无限制地贬下去。</p><p>其实，人民币在7以上，它应该不会有一个很快的贬值过程，应该也会有个调整。</p><p>当然，我也不认为，现在人民币的贬值就已经到位了，它可能还是会有所震荡。</p><p><b>但是，从我们国家的基本面来看，比如说我们的外贸出口还是比较强劲的，我们的外汇储备，规模还是全球第一。</b></p><p><b>只要我们的外汇储备水平不会急速下降，人民币其实也不具备持续大幅贬值的基础。</b></p><p>当然，在人民币只有6.3、6.4的时候，人民币可能有贬值空间，但是现在已经贬到7以上了。</p><p>在这个时候，你再说人民币有很大的贬值空间，这个就有点思维定势了。</p><p>我们一定要习惯于辩证思维，习惯于左侧思维，而不是老是看着右侧。</p><p><b>再一个，就跟我前面讲的逻辑相关，美国还能够加息多少次？</b></p><p><b>如果加息到尾声了，那么美元指数，它的上升空间还有多少？</b></p><p>因为这一次，我觉得美国加息还是比较失败的。为什么？</p><p>你看加息之后，原油价格又反弹了。</p><p>这次通胀主要是供给端的问题所造成的，而加息主要是打压需求端。</p><p><b>接下来，美元指数有可能在今年年底会走弱。</b></p><p><b>我们对人民币贬值这块也不要过于悲观。</b></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n李迅雷：现在A股比2018年时更低，美联储加息或已近尾声\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-11 11:25 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/555806><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>日前，中泰证券首席经济学家李迅雷就当下市场情况、美联储加息、人民币贬值等市场关心的一系列问题做出了观点分享。针对美联储加息趋势，李迅雷表达了明确的观点。他认为，美联储加息已经到了强弩之末的阶段，今年年末或者明年年初再加一次，加息可能就结束了。在加息结束后，全球货币贬值的节奏，也或将随之放缓。在人民币贬值问题上，李迅雷也表示，不必对人民币持续贬值过于忧虑，当前人民币其实也不具备持续大幅贬值的基础。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/555806\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0176eced86f9d95dfadc886684f187a4","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/555806","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1169779523","content_text":"日前，中泰证券首席经济学家李迅雷就当下市场情况、美联储加息、人民币贬值等市场关心的一系列问题做出了观点分享。针对美联储加息趋势，李迅雷表达了明确的观点。他认为，美联储加息已经到了强弩之末的阶段，今年年末或者明年年初再加一次，加息可能就结束了。在加息结束后，全球货币贬值的节奏，也或将随之放缓。在人民币贬值问题上，李迅雷也表示，不必对人民币持续贬值过于忧虑，当前人民币其实也不具备持续大幅贬值的基础。对于当前投资者信心不足的股市，在跌破3000点的今天，李迅雷认为，现在的位置，比2018年的时候更低。毕竟从2018年到现在也有三五年的时间了，这个期间，整个上市公司盈利还是在增长过程当中。从估值来看，目前的估值水平已经低于2018年。政策面宽松，降准也是有期望的问：请迅雷总来分享一下，对当下的市场有什么看法？李迅雷：从政策面来讲，应该还是比较宽松的，无论是货币政策还是财政政策。在美国还在不断加息的背景之下，我们采取了降息举措，而且，降准也是有期望的。另外，在财政政策上面的话，今年的财政政策力度也是非常大。除了有对于专项债余额的进一步提振——最近又增加了五千亿，另外，三大政策性银行也在配合我们的财政政策，拉动经济。对房地产方面，货币政策、财政政策也双双发力。我想，在这方面，有利于经济回稳，也有利于市场信心的提振。现在的位置，比2018年要更低问：怎么看待当下市场的投资性价比？哪些行业相对而言具备更加突出的性价比？李迅雷：应该说，现在的位置，比2018年的时候更低。从估值水平来讲，还是明显要低一些，无论是从传统的行业还是从新兴的行业，应该说，这个位置都还是要低。毕竟从2018年到现在也有三五年的时间了，这个期间，整个上市公司盈利还是在增长过程当中。我们的政策力度，应该也比2018年的时候要更好一些。但是，大家的信心方面……似乎也可以理解，就是越是市场低迷的时候，大家越缺乏信心，大家越缺乏底气。现在，在左侧，应该是一个寻找机会的很好的时机。未来经济增长的动力更多是来自于消费问：下一阶段，中国经济内生动力的源头在哪里？李迅雷：我觉得，首先，大家对预期的调整很重要，人有生命周期，有幼年、少年、青年、老年，有各个阶段。现在的中国经济实际上已经到中年阶段了，我们不可能像青少年时代那么有力。在这种情况下面，一个劲地问，中国经济什么时候还能够增长10%，显然是不现实的。所以我觉得我们要降低预期。更何况，现在全球经济都进入到一个比烂的时代。我们还是不错的，就不要有过高的预期。经济增长的动力，我们来看三驾马车，投资、消费、出口。我们现在的投资，房地产的投资，肯定是弱了，负增长。但制造业投资，还是维持在10%以上，这已经非常不错了。另外一方面的话，消费偏弱。我觉得，我们未来经济增长的动力更多是来自于消费。大家一听到这个问题都觉得会摇头，觉得消费要靠有钱，债务那么重，六个钱包都空了，怎么可以拉动消费？我觉得这个不要急，总归是有办法的，现在居民把大量的钱储存在银行里，这不是机会吗？钱不可能一直待在银行里面，他肯定会拿出来，只不过在什么时间拿出来。这个是需要政策，需要一个时机。我觉得中国经济，至少从目前来讲，现在是处在一个相对低点。二季度是最低点，三季度应该比二季度高，四季度比三季度会更高。明年会比今年更高。那么大家到明年一季度的时候，会不会又乐观一点？总归是有办法的。因为目前来讲，整个政府的杠杆水平，相对来讲还是比较低的，我们资源还是比较多的。不像日本，它完全步入到一个超级老龄化时代。更何况，我们要抓住的更多是一个结构性的机会，不是普涨的机会。因为行业轮动，最大的行业轮动就是新旧行业的转换。传统行业它的景气度是下降的，新兴行业，它景气度是上升的。而景气度上升不是说上升一两年，它可能会有一段时间的调整，接下来它还有上升的空间。比如说，中国经济也好，全球经济也好，它进入到一个数字经济时代。那数字经济时代相对于传统经济来讲的话，它完全不一样了。数字经济需要什么？人工智能，大数据，需要半导体，需要各种技术手段来支持。人口老龄化，看上去好像经济增长动力不足了，但是我们的消费需求又上升了。尤其在升级消费上面，比如说像机器人的需求要增加，这里面又需要有一个大量的相关的支持。国庆期间，C919拿到了适航证了。中国大飞机一旦起来的话，中国有多大的市场，那这是不是又有新的动力？总而言之，我觉得，经济发展它有它的规律，不同阶段有不同阶段的亮点。我们从最初周期性行业占优，到房地产又起来了，到后来消费类又起来了，消费升级了，家电、汽车起来了；2019年以后，新能源为代表的碳综合大背景之下的这些行业又起来了。总体来讲，我们还是要不断去思考，不断要寻找新的机会，尤其是结构性机会。美联储加息已是强弩之末再加息一次可能就要结束了问：10年期美债收益率破4，以及美联储后续还要进一步加息的趋势，对国内市场会有什么影响？李迅雷：这一块来讲，确实影响还是比较明显的。美联储一旦加息，美国的股市就要下跌；美国股市下跌，全球股市也都会受到影响。我们专门测算过，中国股市跟美国股市的相关性大概是52%。所以说这块，还是受影响。现在就看到一个很奇特的现象，美国的经济数据一好，美国股市就大跌。所以我们现在都在期待着美国经济数据变差。破4之后的话，我觉得，美国的经济它是会下行的。我觉得我们也不用对美联储加息这么恐惧。我有一个经验，就是根据美联储以往的历史，它基本上是走在曲线后面的。就是，它的加息是滞后的，不是领先的。既然是这样的话，我想美联储加息应该也差不多到强弩之末了。今年年底或者明年年初再加一次的话，基本上，我认为，可能就结束了。整个全球的货币的贬值，在这方面的节奏可能也会放缓。这是我的一个判断，供大家参考。在7以上的情况下，人民币不具备持续大幅贬值的基础问：人民币对美元快速贬值，您对这件事情怎么看？李迅雷：在国庆期间，人民币又大幅升值了，大家都有一个思维的惯性，就觉得，一旦人民币贬值，会无限制地贬下去。其实，人民币在7以上，它应该不会有一个很快的贬值过程，应该也会有个调整。当然，我也不认为，现在人民币的贬值就已经到位了，它可能还是会有所震荡。但是，从我们国家的基本面来看，比如说我们的外贸出口还是比较强劲的，我们的外汇储备，规模还是全球第一。只要我们的外汇储备水平不会急速下降，人民币其实也不具备持续大幅贬值的基础。当然，在人民币只有6.3、6.4的时候，人民币可能有贬值空间，但是现在已经贬到7以上了。在这个时候，你再说人民币有很大的贬值空间，这个就有点思维定势了。我们一定要习惯于辩证思维，习惯于左侧思维，而不是老是看着右侧。再一个，就跟我前面讲的逻辑相关，美国还能够加息多少次？如果加息到尾声了，那么美元指数，它的上升空间还有多少？因为这一次，我觉得美国加息还是比较失败的。为什么？你看加息之后，原油价格又反弹了。这次通胀主要是供给端的问题所造成的，而加息主要是打压需求端。接下来，美元指数有可能在今年年底会走弱。我们对人民币贬值这块也不要过于悲观。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":668291242,"gmtCreate":1664769299887,"gmtModify":1664769301879,"author":{"id":"3465901103807228","authorId":"3465901103807228","name":"Listen9","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/632c036750056f3f99b7c95bd475556f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3465901103807228","idStr":"3465901103807228"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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