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沉辰尘
2020-03-26
最近老熬夜,身体有些扛不住,不过战绩还不错。
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
$美光科技(MU)$
$京东(JD)$
$波音(BA)$
沉辰尘
2019-11-07
$迅雷(XNET)$
感觉迅雷要重现2017年的套路,要翻倍了
沉辰尘
2019-09-11
老虎的帖子咋这么少了,蓝天白云大神消失好久了,社区需要你回来分析一下$美光科技(MU)$
沉辰尘
2019-05-13
$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 等涨30%再卖,坐等财报,第一次财报不理想,估计老虎要被骂死,以后都别指望有用户来了
沉辰尘
2018-03-13
这股要逆向操作
$美光科技(MU)$ 拿了四五个月,我要持到翻倍去。 去年喊涨的时候老跌,现在唱空不少,股价反而大涨,我之前也进进出出不少,都没捞到便宜,还是拿稳好,持到翻倍
这股要逆向操作
沉辰尘
2018-03-05
终于破50了,还有谁
$美光科技(MU)$ 终于熬出来了 $阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $腾讯控股(00700)$
终于破50了,还有谁
沉辰尘
2018-02-28
猜到这股的结局,猜不透过程
$美光科技(MU)$ 期权卖早了一部分,坚持拿到50去减仓 $美光科技(MU)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $腾讯控股(00700)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $英特尔(INTC)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$
猜到这股的结局,猜不透过程
沉辰尘
2018-02-10
抄底大反弹
$美光科技(MU)$ 今天社区出奇的安静啊,大家恐慌观望的时候,是不是该抄底了,还是要等到大家卸载老虎后才抄底呢。 $阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $腾讯控股(00700)$ $迅雷(XNET)$
抄底大反弹
沉辰尘
2018-02-07
希望蓝天白云在美光破50或者下跌的时候再谈美光哈
$美光科技(MU)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $腾讯控股(00700)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 虽说老虎这里左右不了美光的走势,我也是坚信美光未来翻倍,持仓了三个月,但是看前n多次蓝天每次谈美光必跌,😂,期权有些受不了,老被收割。不是说蓝天总结分析的不好,看你的帖子,信仰美光的会持到天荒地老,不看好的说再多也拿不住。希望下次看到你谈美光是在破50或者基本面前景堪忧的时候再发哈。昨晚美光居然11个点了,期待美光有一波行情。
希望蓝天白云在美光破50或者下跌的时候再谈美光哈
沉辰尘
2018-01-23
期待核桃妈的京东表演
$京东(JD)$ 回忆去年核桃妈玩京东期权从几千刀到40万刀的神迹,让人羡慕不已,期待核桃妈回归神位,带我们纵横京东
期待核桃妈的京东表演
沉辰尘
2018-01-11
区块链-心痒难耐
$柯达(KODK)$ $寺库(SECO)$ $人人网(RENN)$ 最近区块链概念越来越火,连腾讯都发白皮书了: https://view.inews.qq.com/a/20180110B0B93F00?openid=o04IBAE27UDzYW7cHkO4pDbNNaC0&key=&version=62060028&devicetype=Windows+10&wuid=oDdoCtzlDcVWYogAWcIuDdqiPKv0&from=groupmessage&isappinstalled=0 我看好迅雷、阿里、腾讯的趋势,但是很多垃圾公司也来凑热闹,我判断不了它哪天涨,也不敢追涨,但我心痒难耐,总结一下已经拉升过的垃圾区块链,一般都是不超过两天的行情,准备在第二天的拉升上做空。今天寺库起来了,明天还拉升的话,空空空!
区块链-心痒难耐
沉辰尘
2018-01-08
是否是吸筹
$陌陌(MOMO)$ 陌陌这段时间慢慢往上蹭,看成交量,看k线感觉是在吸筹。目前快要破60均线,站稳60应该有一波行情
是否是吸筹
沉辰尘
2018-01-04
陌陌爆发了
$陌陌(MOMO)$ 陌陌也要搞区块链么,看来还要大涨$500彩票网(WBAI)$ $世纪互联(VNET)$
陌陌爆发了
沉辰尘
2018-01-04
继人人后的区块链
$猎豹移动(CMCM)$ 现在区块链轮流临幸这些小公司,人人-猎豹,下一个是谁?聚美?美图?还是世纪互联?
继人人后的区块链
沉辰尘
2018-01-04
聚美优品也要搞区块链么
$聚美优品(JMEI)$ 感觉聚美要搞区块链了,就是不知道时间
聚美优品也要搞区块链么
沉辰尘
2018-01-04
美图进军区块链
$美图科技(01357)$ 最近,有消息称,在AI领域动作频频的美图即将进军区块链。虽然美图方面尚未正面回应,但从微博上爆出的美图块链工程师招聘广告来看,笔者认为此事十有八九是真的。事实上,美图董事长蔡文胜对区块链技术关注已久,而且颇有研究。就在2017年12月上旬,美图董事长蔡文胜就在海南「互联网+」创新创业节上分享过他对于区块链技术的看法。蔡文胜提出:「区块链经济的核心不在技术,而在于商业逻辑的重构。因此,这不仅仅是一场技术革命,更是一场认知革命。」更早之前,蔡文胜和史玉柱、唐越共同投资比特币交易平台OKEX,而在2017年10月OKEX更宣布将逐步转型为区块链应用和开发公司。从蔡文胜对区块链的布局来看,美图进军区块链也是顺理成章。美图押注AI,布局区块链早在2010年,美图早就已成立了MTlab(美图影像实验室),在人脸识别/图像增强/AR技术/3D技术已经积累了丰富的数据的基础上开始探索AI,近年更是动作频频,不久前刚刚公布其最新研究成果——AI 测肤技术 MTskin。目前,美图AI测肤在肤质、肤龄、肤色、黑头、黑眼圈、痘痘五个领域的准确率已经达到95%以上。当区块链技术与AI相遇,将为美图产生怎样的火花?笔者认为,美图采用区块链可能的变革在两方面,其一是,「去中心化人工智能」特性与美妆、皮肤数据结合,在美妆数据市场有的放矢。其二,数据溯源,为美妆电商做正品保证。通过区块链技术,可以有效的对交易环节以及路径进行把控和追踪,防止出现假货、掉包的现象。从技术层面来讲,利用区块链技术去中心化与共享控制的特性,也让数据更加精准,与此同时,也将给美图带来更多的创新模型。这无疑将为美图的美妆领域、皮肤检测提供有力的技术加持,也可以在产品矩阵的信息流广告领域提高AI算法的准确性,撬动千亿级美肤市场产生新的变革。届时,美图系四亿多月活用户,庞大的数据流量辅以人工智能算法,真正的商
美图进军区块链
沉辰尘
2018-01-03
金融风暴卷土重来
10年前,我曾在天涯社区做过一个非常著名的预测,就是预言2008将出现金融危机,原油有可能跌到30美元,美国对冲基金将因此损失惨重,最后美国也将因此遭受重创而跌下神坛。 10年过去了,我一直都没有忘记当时有很多读者回帖问同一个问题,就是希望我能预测下一次金融危机什么时候爆发。今天,带着当初的承诺,我在此郑重的告诉大家,金融危机已经离我们很近了,我都已经听到了它的脚步声。 一、金融危机具有特殊的周期性 现在国际金融活动日趋紧密,各个金融市场相互关联,一个局部市场的危机爆发往往会牵连到多个市场的联动,从而引发全球范围内的金融风暴。我们所说的金融危机或金融风暴主要就是指那些涉及到多个国家和地区的世界性金融危机。 金融危机到底有没有周期性?这是金融界的哥赫巴德猜想,也是金融研究中王冠上的明珠。 我个人认为,金融危机的爆发具有一定的周期性,其爆发周期大概就是10年。 1、第一次全球性的金融危机,就是 1987—1988年的那场金融危机。其标志性事件就是“黑色星期一”。 1987年10月19日,也就是金融历史上著名的“黑色星期一”。在这一天,道指下跌22.6%,东京跌15%,伦敦下跌10.8%,巴黎下跌9.7%,悉尼下跌25%,新加坡下跌20%。恒生指数在下跌300点后(跌幅超过10%)宣布停止交易4天,但在10月26日重新开盘的当天,直接大跌1120点,跌至2241点,跌幅超过30%。这是有史以来第一次全球性暴跌,整个市值损失高达一万四千多亿美元,是第一次世界大战全部损失的三倍以上! 但让人迷惑的是,时至今日,全世界的金融专家们也没有找出“黑色星期一”爆发的根本原因,或者说至今还没有找出幕后真凶。 2、第二次金融危机就是我们非常熟悉的1997—1998亚洲金融危机。 这场危机其实包括了四个主要阶段,或者说四个主要战场,但许多专家往往忽略了俄
金融风暴卷土重来
沉辰尘
2017-12-22
还能回本么
$乐信(LX)$ 第一次打新,残了
还能回本么
沉辰尘
2017-12-21
44.85又加仓
$美光科技(MU)$ 跌一块加一次仓,不怕你跌
44.85又加仓
沉辰尘
2017-12-20
不会跟京东一样发个财报就萎了吧
$美光科技(MU)$。$京东(JD)$ 美光这财报无语,我说跌了好加仓,哪晓得加完仓跌这么狠,跟上次京东发财报一样,盘中一直跌,之后几天也是跌,等个把月了才起来的。期权也没怎么涨...
不会跟京东一样发个财报就萎了吧
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>","listText":"最近老熬夜,身体有些扛不住,不过战绩还不错。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a><a 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陌陌这段时间慢慢往上蹭,看成交量,看k线感觉是在吸筹。目前快要破60均线,站稳60应该有一波行情","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142291","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1889,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3443440006352800","authorId":"3443440006352800","name":"君子有道","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dffc837e31aec1564b7dd0e8167a2c0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3443440006352800","authorIdStr":"3443440006352800"},"content":"很稳健,成交量放的不大,可能空头回补,总之看好后市行情。","text":"很稳健,成交量放的不大,可能空头回补,总之看好后市行情。","html":"很稳健,成交量放的不大,可能空头回补,总之看好后市行情。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":140506,"gmtCreate":1515082371778,"gmtModify":1704886881623,"author":{"id":"3462349877027623","authorId":"3462349877027623","name":"沉辰尘","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/5fa87fb8e3f09ed7040706dabc6505a2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3462349877027623","authorIdStr":"3462349877027623"},"themes":[],"title":"陌陌爆发了","htmlText":"$陌陌(MOMO)$ 陌陌也要搞区块链么,看来还要大涨$500彩票网(WBAI)$ $世纪互联(VNET)$","listText":"$陌陌(MOMO)$ 陌陌也要搞区块链么,看来还要大涨$500彩票网(WBAI)$ $世纪互联(VNET)$","text":"$陌陌(MOMO)$ 陌陌也要搞区块链么,看来还要大涨$500彩票网(WBAI)$ $世纪互联(VNET)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140506","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3462349877027623","authorId":"3462349877027623","name":"沉辰尘","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/5fa87fb8e3f09ed7040706dabc6505a2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3462349877027623","authorIdStr":"3462349877027623"},"content":"我的app今天出问题了,才弄好。 500彩票网昨天犹豫着没买,主要是限制网售,最后买了陌陌","text":"我的app今天出问题了,才弄好。 500彩票网昨天犹豫着没买,主要是限制网售,最后买了陌陌","html":"我的app今天出问题了,才弄好。 500彩票网昨天犹豫着没买,主要是限制网售,最后买了陌陌"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":140134,"gmtCreate":1515064699126,"gmtModify":1704886836302,"author":{"id":"3462349877027623","authorId":"3462349877027623","name":"沉辰尘","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/5fa87fb8e3f09ed7040706dabc6505a2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3462349877027623","authorIdStr":"3462349877027623"},"themes":[],"title":"继人人后的区块链","htmlText":"$猎豹移动(CMCM)$ 现在区块链轮流临幸这些小公司,人人-猎豹,下一个是谁?聚美?美图?还是世纪互联?","listText":"$猎豹移动(CMCM)$ 现在区块链轮流临幸这些小公司,人人-猎豹,下一个是谁?聚美?美图?还是世纪互联?","text":"$猎豹移动(CMCM)$ 现在区块链轮流临幸这些小公司,人人-猎豹,下一个是谁?聚美?美图?还是世纪互联?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140134","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3459903372443770","authorId":"3459903372443770","name":"ShadoWalker","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3459903372443770","authorIdStr":"3459903372443770"},"content":"下一个应该$趣店(QD)$ ,区块链解决信贷问题好像很合适","text":"下一个应该$趣店(QD)$ ,区块链解决信贷问题好像很合适","html":"下一个应该$趣店(QD)$ ,区块链解决信贷问题好像很合适"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":140096,"gmtCreate":1515060763216,"gmtModify":1704886831822,"author":{"id":"3462349877027623","authorId":"3462349877027623","name":"沉辰尘","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/5fa87fb8e3f09ed7040706dabc6505a2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3462349877027623","authorIdStr":"3462349877027623"},"themes":[],"title":"聚美优品也要搞区块链么","htmlText":"$聚美优品(JMEI)$ 感觉聚美要搞区块链了,就是不知道时间","listText":"$聚美优品(JMEI)$ 感觉聚美要搞区块链了,就是不知道时间","text":"$聚美优品(JMEI)$ 感觉聚美要搞区块链了,就是不知道时间","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3470810052179743","authorId":"3470810052179743","name":"我胖虎去抽根烟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac38fa77baa69870a1a304d0951e7112","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3470810052179743","authorIdStr":"3470810052179743"},"content":"哪里的消息?","text":"哪里的消息?","html":"哪里的消息?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":140094,"gmtCreate":1515060604069,"gmtModify":1704886831483,"author":{"id":"3462349877027623","authorId":"3462349877027623","name":"沉辰尘","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/5fa87fb8e3f09ed7040706dabc6505a2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3462349877027623","authorIdStr":"3462349877027623"},"themes":[],"title":"美图进军区块链","htmlText":"$美图科技(01357)$ 最近,有消息称,在AI领域动作频频的美图即将进军区块链。虽然美图方面尚未正面回应,但从微博上爆出的美图块链工程师招聘广告来看,笔者认为此事十有八九是真的。事实上,美图董事长蔡文胜对区块链技术关注已久,而且颇有研究。就在2017年12月上旬,美图董事长蔡文胜就在海南「互联网+」创新创业节上分享过他对于区块链技术的看法。蔡文胜提出:「区块链经济的核心不在技术,而在于商业逻辑的重构。因此,这不仅仅是一场技术革命,更是一场认知革命。」更早之前,蔡文胜和史玉柱、唐越共同投资比特币交易平台OKEX,而在2017年10月OKEX更宣布将逐步转型为区块链应用和开发公司。从蔡文胜对区块链的布局来看,美图进军区块链也是顺理成章。美图押注AI,布局区块链早在2010年,美图早就已成立了MTlab(美图影像实验室),在人脸识别/图像增强/AR技术/3D技术已经积累了丰富的数据的基础上开始探索AI,近年更是动作频频,不久前刚刚公布其最新研究成果——AI 测肤技术 MTskin。目前,美图AI测肤在肤质、肤龄、肤色、黑头、黑眼圈、痘痘五个领域的准确率已经达到95%以上。当区块链技术与AI相遇,将为美图产生怎样的火花?笔者认为,美图采用区块链可能的变革在两方面,其一是,「去中心化人工智能」特性与美妆、皮肤数据结合,在美妆数据市场有的放矢。其二,数据溯源,为美妆电商做正品保证。通过区块链技术,可以有效的对交易环节以及路径进行把控和追踪,防止出现假货、掉包的现象。从技术层面来讲,利用区块链技术去中心化与共享控制的特性,也让数据更加精准,与此同时,也将给美图带来更多的创新模型。这无疑将为美图的美妆领域、皮肤检测提供有力的技术加持,也可以在产品矩阵的信息流广告领域提高AI算法的准确性,撬动千亿级美肤市场产生新的变革。届时,美图系四亿多月活用户,庞大的数据流量辅以人工智能算法,真正的商","listText":"$美图科技(01357)$ 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最近,有消息称,在AI领域动作频频的美图即将进军区块链。虽然美图方面尚未正面回应,但从微博上爆出的美图块链工程师招聘广告来看,笔者认为此事十有八九是真的。事实上,美图董事长蔡文胜对区块链技术关注已久,而且颇有研究。就在2017年12月上旬,美图董事长蔡文胜就在海南「互联网+」创新创业节上分享过他对于区块链技术的看法。蔡文胜提出:「区块链经济的核心不在技术,而在于商业逻辑的重构。因此,这不仅仅是一场技术革命,更是一场认知革命。」更早之前,蔡文胜和史玉柱、唐越共同投资比特币交易平台OKEX,而在2017年10月OKEX更宣布将逐步转型为区块链应用和开发公司。从蔡文胜对区块链的布局来看,美图进军区块链也是顺理成章。美图押注AI,布局区块链早在2010年,美图早就已成立了MTlab(美图影像实验室),在人脸识别/图像增强/AR技术/3D技术已经积累了丰富的数据的基础上开始探索AI,近年更是动作频频,不久前刚刚公布其最新研究成果——AI 测肤技术 MTskin。目前,美图AI测肤在肤质、肤龄、肤色、黑头、黑眼圈、痘痘五个领域的准确率已经达到95%以上。当区块链技术与AI相遇,将为美图产生怎样的火花?笔者认为,美图采用区块链可能的变革在两方面,其一是,「去中心化人工智能」特性与美妆、皮肤数据结合,在美妆数据市场有的放矢。其二,数据溯源,为美妆电商做正品保证。通过区块链技术,可以有效的对交易环节以及路径进行把控和追踪,防止出现假货、掉包的现象。从技术层面来讲,利用区块链技术去中心化与共享控制的特性,也让数据更加精准,与此同时,也将给美图带来更多的创新模型。这无疑将为美图的美妆领域、皮肤检测提供有力的技术加持,也可以在产品矩阵的信息流广告领域提高AI算法的准确性,撬动千亿级美肤市场产生新的变革。届时,美图系四亿多月活用户,庞大的数据流量辅以人工智能算法,真正的商","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140094","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3943,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3470172425904169","authorId":"3470172425904169","name":"酒醉的蜗牛","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3470172425904169","authorIdStr":"3470172425904169"},"content":"小白求问,美图科技怎么显示未开盘,买不了","text":"小白求问,美图科技怎么显示未开盘,买不了","html":"小白求问,美图科技怎么显示未开盘,买不了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":139431,"gmtCreate":1514957331511,"gmtModify":1704886746489,"author":{"id":"3462349877027623","authorId":"3462349877027623","name":"沉辰尘","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/5fa87fb8e3f09ed7040706dabc6505a2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3462349877027623","authorIdStr":"3462349877027623"},"themes":[],"title":"金融风暴卷土重来","htmlText":"10年前,我曾在天涯社区做过一个非常著名的预测,就是预言2008将出现金融危机,原油有可能跌到30美元,美国对冲基金将因此损失惨重,最后美国也将因此遭受重创而跌下神坛。 10年过去了,我一直都没有忘记当时有很多读者回帖问同一个问题,就是希望我能预测下一次金融危机什么时候爆发。今天,带着当初的承诺,我在此郑重的告诉大家,金融危机已经离我们很近了,我都已经听到了它的脚步声。 一、金融危机具有特殊的周期性 现在国际金融活动日趋紧密,各个金融市场相互关联,一个局部市场的危机爆发往往会牵连到多个市场的联动,从而引发全球范围内的金融风暴。我们所说的金融危机或金融风暴主要就是指那些涉及到多个国家和地区的世界性金融危机。 金融危机到底有没有周期性?这是金融界的哥赫巴德猜想,也是金融研究中王冠上的明珠。 我个人认为,金融危机的爆发具有一定的周期性,其爆发周期大概就是10年。 1、第一次全球性的金融危机,就是 1987—1988年的那场金融危机。其标志性事件就是“黑色星期一”。 1987年10月19日,也就是金融历史上著名的“黑色星期一”。在这一天,道指下跌22.6%,东京跌15%,伦敦下跌10.8%,巴黎下跌9.7%,悉尼下跌25%,新加坡下跌20%。恒生指数在下跌300点后(跌幅超过10%)宣布停止交易4天,但在10月26日重新开盘的当天,直接大跌1120点,跌至2241点,跌幅超过30%。这是有史以来第一次全球性暴跌,整个市值损失高达一万四千多亿美元,是第一次世界大战全部损失的三倍以上! 但让人迷惑的是,时至今日,全世界的金融专家们也没有找出“黑色星期一”爆发的根本原因,或者说至今还没有找出幕后真凶。 2、第二次金融危机就是我们非常熟悉的1997—1998亚洲金融危机。 这场危机其实包括了四个主要阶段,或者说四个主要战场,但许多专家往往忽略了俄","listText":"10年前,我曾在天涯社区做过一个非常著名的预测,就是预言2008将出现金融危机,原油有可能跌到30美元,美国对冲基金将因此损失惨重,最后美国也将因此遭受重创而跌下神坛。 10年过去了,我一直都没有忘记当时有很多读者回帖问同一个问题,就是希望我能预测下一次金融危机什么时候爆发。今天,带着当初的承诺,我在此郑重的告诉大家,金融危机已经离我们很近了,我都已经听到了它的脚步声。 一、金融危机具有特殊的周期性 现在国际金融活动日趋紧密,各个金融市场相互关联,一个局部市场的危机爆发往往会牵连到多个市场的联动,从而引发全球范围内的金融风暴。我们所说的金融危机或金融风暴主要就是指那些涉及到多个国家和地区的世界性金融危机。 金融危机到底有没有周期性?这是金融界的哥赫巴德猜想,也是金融研究中王冠上的明珠。 我个人认为,金融危机的爆发具有一定的周期性,其爆发周期大概就是10年。 1、第一次全球性的金融危机,就是 1987—1988年的那场金融危机。其标志性事件就是“黑色星期一”。 1987年10月19日,也就是金融历史上著名的“黑色星期一”。在这一天,道指下跌22.6%,东京跌15%,伦敦下跌10.8%,巴黎下跌9.7%,悉尼下跌25%,新加坡下跌20%。恒生指数在下跌300点后(跌幅超过10%)宣布停止交易4天,但在10月26日重新开盘的当天,直接大跌1120点,跌至2241点,跌幅超过30%。这是有史以来第一次全球性暴跌,整个市值损失高达一万四千多亿美元,是第一次世界大战全部损失的三倍以上! 但让人迷惑的是,时至今日,全世界的金融专家们也没有找出“黑色星期一”爆发的根本原因,或者说至今还没有找出幕后真凶。 2、第二次金融危机就是我们非常熟悉的1997—1998亚洲金融危机。 这场危机其实包括了四个主要阶段,或者说四个主要战场,但许多专家往往忽略了俄","text":"10年前,我曾在天涯社区做过一个非常著名的预测,就是预言2008将出现金融危机,原油有可能跌到30美元,美国对冲基金将因此损失惨重,最后美国也将因此遭受重创而跌下神坛。 10年过去了,我一直都没有忘记当时有很多读者回帖问同一个问题,就是希望我能预测下一次金融危机什么时候爆发。今天,带着当初的承诺,我在此郑重的告诉大家,金融危机已经离我们很近了,我都已经听到了它的脚步声。 一、金融危机具有特殊的周期性 现在国际金融活动日趋紧密,各个金融市场相互关联,一个局部市场的危机爆发往往会牵连到多个市场的联动,从而引发全球范围内的金融风暴。我们所说的金融危机或金融风暴主要就是指那些涉及到多个国家和地区的世界性金融危机。 金融危机到底有没有周期性?这是金融界的哥赫巴德猜想,也是金融研究中王冠上的明珠。 我个人认为,金融危机的爆发具有一定的周期性,其爆发周期大概就是10年。 1、第一次全球性的金融危机,就是 1987—1988年的那场金融危机。其标志性事件就是“黑色星期一”。 1987年10月19日,也就是金融历史上著名的“黑色星期一”。在这一天,道指下跌22.6%,东京跌15%,伦敦下跌10.8%,巴黎下跌9.7%,悉尼下跌25%,新加坡下跌20%。恒生指数在下跌300点后(跌幅超过10%)宣布停止交易4天,但在10月26日重新开盘的当天,直接大跌1120点,跌至2241点,跌幅超过30%。这是有史以来第一次全球性暴跌,整个市值损失高达一万四千多亿美元,是第一次世界大战全部损失的三倍以上! 但让人迷惑的是,时至今日,全世界的金融专家们也没有找出“黑色星期一”爆发的根本原因,或者说至今还没有找出幕后真凶。 2、第二次金融危机就是我们非常熟悉的1997—1998亚洲金融危机。 这场危机其实包括了四个主要阶段,或者说四个主要战场,但许多专家往往忽略了俄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":29,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/139431","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3648,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"256531703912182","authorId":"256531703912182","name":"civi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/025a6e09342221a0391c660c461c8e9c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"256531703912182","authorIdStr":"256531703912182"},"content":"十年前……我……也预测08经济危机。。哈哈哈。。其实我年年都在预测有经济危机。。总有一年会对的。。实在不行还有下一年","text":"十年前……我……也预测08经济危机。。哈哈哈。。其实我年年都在预测有经济危机。。总有一年会对的。。实在不行还有下一年","html":"十年前……我……也预测08经济危机。。哈哈哈。。其实我年年都在预测有经济危机。。总有一年会对的。。实在不行还有下一年"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":136546,"gmtCreate":1513952315653,"gmtModify":1704886402414,"author":{"id":"3462349877027623","authorId":"3462349877027623","name":"沉辰尘","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/5fa87fb8e3f09ed7040706dabc6505a2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3462349877027623","authorIdStr":"3462349877027623"},"themes":[],"title":"还能回本么","htmlText":"$乐信(LX)$ 第一次打新,残了","listText":"$乐信(LX)$ 第一次打新,残了","text":"$乐信(LX)$ 第一次打新,残了","images":[{"img":"https://static.laohu8.com/1d6c188a705cd900833c6d4e775272a2"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":25,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136546","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3441591927303019","authorId":"3441591927303019","name":"杰克鱼","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/09ae444914c35db7faa38749414879fa","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3441591927303019","authorIdStr":"3441591927303019"},"content":"赶紧做空 这股要破发","text":"赶紧做空 这股要破发","html":"赶紧做空 这股要破发"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":135948,"gmtCreate":1513867806542,"gmtModify":1704886335355,"author":{"id":"3462349877027623","authorId":"3462349877027623","name":"沉辰尘","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/5fa87fb8e3f09ed7040706dabc6505a2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3462349877027623","authorIdStr":"3462349877027623"},"themes":[],"title":"44.85又加仓","htmlText":"$美光科技(MU)$ 跌一块加一次仓,不怕你跌","listText":"$美光科技(MU)$ 跌一块加一次仓,不怕你跌","text":"$美光科技(MU)$ 跌一块加一次仓,不怕你跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/135948","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1993,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3470531111719766","authorId":"3470531111719766","name":"中国松原巴菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/028818d1e8b529e9e922060f38d56eff","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3470531111719766","authorIdStr":"3470531111719766"},"content":"现在持仓多少,均价是多少","text":"现在持仓多少,均价是多少","html":"现在持仓多少,均价是多少"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":135495,"gmtCreate":1513785341017,"gmtModify":1704886283403,"author":{"id":"3462349877027623","authorId":"3462349877027623","name":"沉辰尘","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/5fa87fb8e3f09ed7040706dabc6505a2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3462349877027623","authorIdStr":"3462349877027623"},"themes":[],"title":"不会跟京东一样发个财报就萎了吧","htmlText":"$美光科技(MU)$。$京东(JD)$ 美光这财报无语,我说跌了好加仓,哪晓得加完仓跌这么狠,跟上次京东发财报一样,盘中一直跌,之后几天也是跌,等个把月了才起来的。期权也没怎么涨...","listText":"$美光科技(MU)$。$京东(JD)$ 美光这财报无语,我说跌了好加仓,哪晓得加完仓跌这么狠,跟上次京东发财报一样,盘中一直跌,之后几天也是跌,等个把月了才起来的。期权也没怎么涨...","text":"$美光科技(MU)$。$京东(JD)$ 美光这财报无语,我说跌了好加仓,哪晓得加完仓跌这么狠,跟上次京东发财报一样,盘中一直跌,之后几天也是跌,等个把月了才起来的。期权也没怎么涨...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/135495","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":139431,"gmtCreate":1514957331511,"gmtModify":1704886746489,"author":{"id":"3462349877027623","authorId":"3462349877027623","name":"沉辰尘","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/5fa87fb8e3f09ed7040706dabc6505a2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3462349877027623","authorIdStr":"3462349877027623"},"themes":[],"title":"金融风暴卷土重来","htmlText":"10年前,我曾在天涯社区做过一个非常著名的预测,就是预言2008将出现金融危机,原油有可能跌到30美元,美国对冲基金将因此损失惨重,最后美国也将因此遭受重创而跌下神坛。 10年过去了,我一直都没有忘记当时有很多读者回帖问同一个问题,就是希望我能预测下一次金融危机什么时候爆发。今天,带着当初的承诺,我在此郑重的告诉大家,金融危机已经离我们很近了,我都已经听到了它的脚步声。 一、金融危机具有特殊的周期性 现在国际金融活动日趋紧密,各个金融市场相互关联,一个局部市场的危机爆发往往会牵连到多个市场的联动,从而引发全球范围内的金融风暴。我们所说的金融危机或金融风暴主要就是指那些涉及到多个国家和地区的世界性金融危机。 金融危机到底有没有周期性?这是金融界的哥赫巴德猜想,也是金融研究中王冠上的明珠。 我个人认为,金融危机的爆发具有一定的周期性,其爆发周期大概就是10年。 1、第一次全球性的金融危机,就是 1987—1988年的那场金融危机。其标志性事件就是“黑色星期一”。 1987年10月19日,也就是金融历史上著名的“黑色星期一”。在这一天,道指下跌22.6%,东京跌15%,伦敦下跌10.8%,巴黎下跌9.7%,悉尼下跌25%,新加坡下跌20%。恒生指数在下跌300点后(跌幅超过10%)宣布停止交易4天,但在10月26日重新开盘的当天,直接大跌1120点,跌至2241点,跌幅超过30%。这是有史以来第一次全球性暴跌,整个市值损失高达一万四千多亿美元,是第一次世界大战全部损失的三倍以上! 但让人迷惑的是,时至今日,全世界的金融专家们也没有找出“黑色星期一”爆发的根本原因,或者说至今还没有找出幕后真凶。 2、第二次金融危机就是我们非常熟悉的1997—1998亚洲金融危机。 这场危机其实包括了四个主要阶段,或者说四个主要战场,但许多专家往往忽略了俄","listText":"10年前,我曾在天涯社区做过一个非常著名的预测,就是预言2008将出现金融危机,原油有可能跌到30美元,美国对冲基金将因此损失惨重,最后美国也将因此遭受重创而跌下神坛。 10年过去了,我一直都没有忘记当时有很多读者回帖问同一个问题,就是希望我能预测下一次金融危机什么时候爆发。今天,带着当初的承诺,我在此郑重的告诉大家,金融危机已经离我们很近了,我都已经听到了它的脚步声。 一、金融危机具有特殊的周期性 现在国际金融活动日趋紧密,各个金融市场相互关联,一个局部市场的危机爆发往往会牵连到多个市场的联动,从而引发全球范围内的金融风暴。我们所说的金融危机或金融风暴主要就是指那些涉及到多个国家和地区的世界性金融危机。 金融危机到底有没有周期性?这是金融界的哥赫巴德猜想,也是金融研究中王冠上的明珠。 我个人认为,金融危机的爆发具有一定的周期性,其爆发周期大概就是10年。 1、第一次全球性的金融危机,就是 1987—1988年的那场金融危机。其标志性事件就是“黑色星期一”。 1987年10月19日,也就是金融历史上著名的“黑色星期一”。在这一天,道指下跌22.6%,东京跌15%,伦敦下跌10.8%,巴黎下跌9.7%,悉尼下跌25%,新加坡下跌20%。恒生指数在下跌300点后(跌幅超过10%)宣布停止交易4天,但在10月26日重新开盘的当天,直接大跌1120点,跌至2241点,跌幅超过30%。这是有史以来第一次全球性暴跌,整个市值损失高达一万四千多亿美元,是第一次世界大战全部损失的三倍以上! 但让人迷惑的是,时至今日,全世界的金融专家们也没有找出“黑色星期一”爆发的根本原因,或者说至今还没有找出幕后真凶。 2、第二次金融危机就是我们非常熟悉的1997—1998亚洲金融危机。 这场危机其实包括了四个主要阶段,或者说四个主要战场,但许多专家往往忽略了俄","text":"10年前,我曾在天涯社区做过一个非常著名的预测,就是预言2008将出现金融危机,原油有可能跌到30美元,美国对冲基金将因此损失惨重,最后美国也将因此遭受重创而跌下神坛。 10年过去了,我一直都没有忘记当时有很多读者回帖问同一个问题,就是希望我能预测下一次金融危机什么时候爆发。今天,带着当初的承诺,我在此郑重的告诉大家,金融危机已经离我们很近了,我都已经听到了它的脚步声。 一、金融危机具有特殊的周期性 现在国际金融活动日趋紧密,各个金融市场相互关联,一个局部市场的危机爆发往往会牵连到多个市场的联动,从而引发全球范围内的金融风暴。我们所说的金融危机或金融风暴主要就是指那些涉及到多个国家和地区的世界性金融危机。 金融危机到底有没有周期性?这是金融界的哥赫巴德猜想,也是金融研究中王冠上的明珠。 我个人认为,金融危机的爆发具有一定的周期性,其爆发周期大概就是10年。 1、第一次全球性的金融危机,就是 1987—1988年的那场金融危机。其标志性事件就是“黑色星期一”。 1987年10月19日,也就是金融历史上著名的“黑色星期一”。在这一天,道指下跌22.6%,东京跌15%,伦敦下跌10.8%,巴黎下跌9.7%,悉尼下跌25%,新加坡下跌20%。恒生指数在下跌300点后(跌幅超过10%)宣布停止交易4天,但在10月26日重新开盘的当天,直接大跌1120点,跌至2241点,跌幅超过30%。这是有史以来第一次全球性暴跌,整个市值损失高达一万四千多亿美元,是第一次世界大战全部损失的三倍以上! 但让人迷惑的是,时至今日,全世界的金融专家们也没有找出“黑色星期一”爆发的根本原因,或者说至今还没有找出幕后真凶。 2、第二次金融危机就是我们非常熟悉的1997—1998亚洲金融危机。 这场危机其实包括了四个主要阶段,或者说四个主要战场,但许多专家往往忽略了俄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":29,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/139431","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3648,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"256531703912182","authorId":"256531703912182","name":"civi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/025a6e09342221a0391c660c461c8e9c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"256531703912182","authorIdStr":"256531703912182"},"content":"十年前……我……也预测08经济危机。。哈哈哈。。其实我年年都在预测有经济危机。。总有一年会对的。。实在不行还有下一年","text":"十年前……我……也预测08经济危机。。哈哈哈。。其实我年年都在预测有经济危机。。总有一年会对的。。实在不行还有下一年","html":"十年前……我……也预测08经济危机。。哈哈哈。。其实我年年都在预测有经济危机。。总有一年会对的。。实在不行还有下一年"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":136546,"gmtCreate":1513952315653,"gmtModify":1704886402414,"author":{"id":"3462349877027623","authorId":"3462349877027623","name":"沉辰尘","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/5fa87fb8e3f09ed7040706dabc6505a2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3462349877027623","authorIdStr":"3462349877027623"},"themes":[],"title":"还能回本么","htmlText":"$乐信(LX)$ 第一次打新,残了","listText":"$乐信(LX)$ 第一次打新,残了","text":"$乐信(LX)$ 第一次打新,残了","images":[{"img":"https://static.laohu8.com/1d6c188a705cd900833c6d4e775272a2"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":25,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136546","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3441591927303019","authorId":"3441591927303019","name":"杰克鱼","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/09ae444914c35db7faa38749414879fa","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3441591927303019","authorIdStr":"3441591927303019"},"content":"赶紧做空 这股要破发","text":"赶紧做空 这股要破发","html":"赶紧做空 这股要破发"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":140094,"gmtCreate":1515060604069,"gmtModify":1704886831483,"author":{"id":"3462349877027623","authorId":"3462349877027623","name":"沉辰尘","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/5fa87fb8e3f09ed7040706dabc6505a2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3462349877027623","authorIdStr":"3462349877027623"},"themes":[],"title":"美图进军区块链","htmlText":"$美图科技(01357)$ 最近,有消息称,在AI领域动作频频的美图即将进军区块链。虽然美图方面尚未正面回应,但从微博上爆出的美图块链工程师招聘广告来看,笔者认为此事十有八九是真的。事实上,美图董事长蔡文胜对区块链技术关注已久,而且颇有研究。就在2017年12月上旬,美图董事长蔡文胜就在海南「互联网+」创新创业节上分享过他对于区块链技术的看法。蔡文胜提出:「区块链经济的核心不在技术,而在于商业逻辑的重构。因此,这不仅仅是一场技术革命,更是一场认知革命。」更早之前,蔡文胜和史玉柱、唐越共同投资比特币交易平台OKEX,而在2017年10月OKEX更宣布将逐步转型为区块链应用和开发公司。从蔡文胜对区块链的布局来看,美图进军区块链也是顺理成章。美图押注AI,布局区块链早在2010年,美图早就已成立了MTlab(美图影像实验室),在人脸识别/图像增强/AR技术/3D技术已经积累了丰富的数据的基础上开始探索AI,近年更是动作频频,不久前刚刚公布其最新研究成果——AI 测肤技术 MTskin。目前,美图AI测肤在肤质、肤龄、肤色、黑头、黑眼圈、痘痘五个领域的准确率已经达到95%以上。当区块链技术与AI相遇,将为美图产生怎样的火花?笔者认为,美图采用区块链可能的变革在两方面,其一是,「去中心化人工智能」特性与美妆、皮肤数据结合,在美妆数据市场有的放矢。其二,数据溯源,为美妆电商做正品保证。通过区块链技术,可以有效的对交易环节以及路径进行把控和追踪,防止出现假货、掉包的现象。从技术层面来讲,利用区块链技术去中心化与共享控制的特性,也让数据更加精准,与此同时,也将给美图带来更多的创新模型。这无疑将为美图的美妆领域、皮肤检测提供有力的技术加持,也可以在产品矩阵的信息流广告领域提高AI算法的准确性,撬动千亿级美肤市场产生新的变革。届时,美图系四亿多月活用户,庞大的数据流量辅以人工智能算法,真正的商","listText":"$美图科技(01357)$ 最近,有消息称,在AI领域动作频频的美图即将进军区块链。虽然美图方面尚未正面回应,但从微博上爆出的美图块链工程师招聘广告来看,笔者认为此事十有八九是真的。事实上,美图董事长蔡文胜对区块链技术关注已久,而且颇有研究。就在2017年12月上旬,美图董事长蔡文胜就在海南「互联网+」创新创业节上分享过他对于区块链技术的看法。蔡文胜提出:「区块链经济的核心不在技术,而在于商业逻辑的重构。因此,这不仅仅是一场技术革命,更是一场认知革命。」更早之前,蔡文胜和史玉柱、唐越共同投资比特币交易平台OKEX,而在2017年10月OKEX更宣布将逐步转型为区块链应用和开发公司。从蔡文胜对区块链的布局来看,美图进军区块链也是顺理成章。美图押注AI,布局区块链早在2010年,美图早就已成立了MTlab(美图影像实验室),在人脸识别/图像增强/AR技术/3D技术已经积累了丰富的数据的基础上开始探索AI,近年更是动作频频,不久前刚刚公布其最新研究成果——AI 测肤技术 MTskin。目前,美图AI测肤在肤质、肤龄、肤色、黑头、黑眼圈、痘痘五个领域的准确率已经达到95%以上。当区块链技术与AI相遇,将为美图产生怎样的火花?笔者认为,美图采用区块链可能的变革在两方面,其一是,「去中心化人工智能」特性与美妆、皮肤数据结合,在美妆数据市场有的放矢。其二,数据溯源,为美妆电商做正品保证。通过区块链技术,可以有效的对交易环节以及路径进行把控和追踪,防止出现假货、掉包的现象。从技术层面来讲,利用区块链技术去中心化与共享控制的特性,也让数据更加精准,与此同时,也将给美图带来更多的创新模型。这无疑将为美图的美妆领域、皮肤检测提供有力的技术加持,也可以在产品矩阵的信息流广告领域提高AI算法的准确性,撬动千亿级美肤市场产生新的变革。届时,美图系四亿多月活用户,庞大的数据流量辅以人工智能算法,真正的商","text":"$美图科技(01357)$ 最近,有消息称,在AI领域动作频频的美图即将进军区块链。虽然美图方面尚未正面回应,但从微博上爆出的美图块链工程师招聘广告来看,笔者认为此事十有八九是真的。事实上,美图董事长蔡文胜对区块链技术关注已久,而且颇有研究。就在2017年12月上旬,美图董事长蔡文胜就在海南「互联网+」创新创业节上分享过他对于区块链技术的看法。蔡文胜提出:「区块链经济的核心不在技术,而在于商业逻辑的重构。因此,这不仅仅是一场技术革命,更是一场认知革命。」更早之前,蔡文胜和史玉柱、唐越共同投资比特币交易平台OKEX,而在2017年10月OKEX更宣布将逐步转型为区块链应用和开发公司。从蔡文胜对区块链的布局来看,美图进军区块链也是顺理成章。美图押注AI,布局区块链早在2010年,美图早就已成立了MTlab(美图影像实验室),在人脸识别/图像增强/AR技术/3D技术已经积累了丰富的数据的基础上开始探索AI,近年更是动作频频,不久前刚刚公布其最新研究成果——AI 测肤技术 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