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林华
2022-11-12
抄底ftt现在被抄家了
抱歉，原内容已删除
林华
2022-11-07
$NQ100指数主连 2212(NQmain)$
开大开小？
林华
2022-10-31
$NQ100指数主连 2212(NQmain)$
还有救？
林华
2020-04-21
$WTI原油2005(CL2005)$
火钳刘明
林华
2020-04-20
牛批
抱歉，原内容已删除
林华
2020-03-10
$嘉楠科技(CAN)$
为啥买入价比卖单价高不能马上成交
林华
2019-11-09
$CME比特币主连(BTCmain)$
主链，字都打错了。真尴尬阿？？
林华
2019-02-01
$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 涨得我快承受不住了 低位做空！这谁顶得住阿！！
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">$嘉楠科技(CAN)$</a>为啥买入价比卖单价高不能马上成交","text":"$嘉楠科技(CAN)$为啥买入价比卖单价高不能马上成交","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/981414433","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3058,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":664703720,"gmtCreate":1668253317261,"gmtModify":1668253319830,"author":{"id":"3461633891972908","authorId":"3461633891972908","name":"林华","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3461633891972908","authorIdStr":"3461633891972908"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"抄底ftt现在被抄家了","listText":"抄底ftt现在被抄家了","text":"抄底ftt现在被抄家了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/664703720","repostId":"2282301544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2282301544","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1668231437,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2282301544?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-12 13:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"复杂程度远超雷曼，一图读懂轰然倒塌的FTX帝国","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2282301544","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"雷曼兄弟的报告整理花了整整18个月的时间，但其结构看起来要简单直白地多。相比之下，人们可能要等更长的时间，才能对FTX的整体架构有更为详细和精确的了解。11月11日周五美股盘前，FTX根据美国破产法第","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>雷曼兄弟的报告整理花了整整18个月的时间，但其结构看起来要简单直白地多。相比之下，人们可能要等更长的时间，才能对FTX的整体架构有更为详细和精确的了解。</b></blockquote><p>11月11日周五美股盘前，FTX根据美国破产法第11章向美国联邦法院申请破产保护。</p><p>一同申请破产的还有疑似风暴的始作俑者——加密货币对冲基金Alameda Research，以及号称运营和流动性完全未受FTX.com崩盘影响的FTX.US美国独立平台。它们连同大约130家申请破产的附属公司被统称为“FTX集团”。</p><p><b>就此，SBF的庞大资本帝国彻底陨落。</b></p><p>很多人将FTX的崩盘比作币圈的“雷曼时刻”，然而，其帝国构造的复杂程度远远超过了雷曼兄弟。</p><p>周五，媒体整理了一份图表，图表显示了截至今年3月整个FTX集团的复杂结构。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faff3d1e797206ee63b2f266cbacbc05\" tg-width=\"5512\" tg-height=\"3148\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71967588ad9260cb10c7f37073f62c85\" tg-width=\"1544\" tg-height=\"821\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>有几家公司需要特别注意：</p><ul><li>FTX Trading LTD在安提瓜和巴布达注册成立，是FTX法律免责声明中确定的基础公司，FTX交易所就由 FTX Trading LTD 所持有；</li><li>West Realm Shires Inc是面向美国的子公司（即FTX.us），它还受到特拉华州的保护；</li><li>在巴哈马注册的风险投资基金FTX Ventures Ltd，由特拉华州一家不知名控股公司 Paper Bird 全资持有，而 Paper Bird 又由SBF全资持有；Paper Bird 似乎还持有FTX Trading LTD 89%的股份，并拥有 Alameda 的公司内部贷款；</li><li>位于图表左下方的，是总部位于美国和开曼群岛的 LedgerPrime 实体，源于FTX去年对对冲基金 Ledger Holdings 的收购；FTX将 LedgerPrime 的加密货币期货平台重新命名为 FTX US Derivatives LLC，并表示剩余业务将重组成一个家族办公室，专门为 Alameda 进行投资；</li><li>Salameda Ltd（香港）由FTX的CFO Jen Chan 100%控股，似乎是通过服务协议与 Alameda 实体进行对接的外围机构。</li></ul><p>媒体表示，由于公开披露的信息是零散的，上述图表不一定完全准确，完整图表应该会在美国破产法第11章的审查报告中出现。可以预先知道的是，其复杂程度要远远超过雷曼兄弟。</p><p><b>雷曼兄弟的报告整理花了整整18个月的时间，但其结构看起来要简单直白地多。相比之下，人们可能要等待更长的时间，才能对FTX的整体架构有更为详细和精确的了解。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a13e1970352d5d4149fb123fbf38dd3\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>“FTX集团”的完整名单如下：</p><blockquote>1. Alameda Aus Pty Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>2. Alameda Global Services Ltd.</blockquote><blockquote>3. Alameda Research (Bahamas) Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>4. Alameda Research Holdings Inc.</blockquote><blockquote>5. Alameda Research KK</blockquote><blockquote>6. Alameda Research LLC</blockquote><blockquote>7. Alameda Research Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>8. Alameda Research Pte Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>9. Alameda Research Yankari Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>10. Alameda TR Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>11. Alameda TR Systems S. de R. L.</blockquote><blockquote>12. Allston Way Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>13. Altalix Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>14. Analisya Pte Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>15. Atlantis Technology Ltd.</blockquote><blockquote>21. Bancroft Way Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>28. Bitvo, Inc.</blockquote><blockquote>29. Blockfolio Holdings, Inc.</blockquote><blockquote>30. Blockfolio, Inc.</blockquote><blockquote>31. Blue Ridge Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>37. BTLS Limited Tanzania</blockquote><blockquote>38. Cardinal Ventures Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>39. Cedar Bay Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>40. Cedar Grove Technology Services, Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>41. Clifton Bay Investments LLC</blockquote><blockquote>42. Clifton Bay Investments Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>43. CM-Equity AG</blockquote><blockquote>44. Corner Stone Staffing</blockquote><blockquote>45. Cottonwood Grove Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>46. Cottonwood Technologies Ltd.</blockquote><blockquote>47. Crypto Bahamas LLC</blockquote><blockquote>48. DAAG Trading, DMCC</blockquote><blockquote>49. Deck Technologies Holdings LLC</blockquote><blockquote>50. Deck Technologies Inc.</blockquote><blockquote>51. Deep Creek Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>52. Digital Custody Inc.</blockquote><blockquote>53. Euclid Way Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>60. FTX (Gibraltar) Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>61. FTX Canada Inc</blockquote><blockquote>62. FTX Certificates GmbH</blockquote><blockquote>63. FTX Crypto Services Ltd.</blockquote><blockquote>64. FTX Digital Assets LLC</blockquote><blockquote>65. FTX Digital Holdings (Singapore) Pte Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>66. FTX EMEA Ltd.</blockquote><blockquote>67. FTX Equity Record Holdings Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>68. FTX Europe AG</blockquote><blockquote>69. FTX Exchange FZE</blockquote><blockquote>70. FTX Hong Kong Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>71. FTX Japan Holdings K.K.</blockquote><blockquote>72. FTX Japan K.K.</blockquote><blockquote>73. FTX Japan Services KK</blockquote><blockquote>74. FTX Lend Inc.</blockquote><blockquote>75. FTX Marketplace, Inc.</blockquote><blockquote>76. FTX Products (Singapore) Pte Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>77. FTX Property Holdings Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>78. FTX Services Solutions Ltd.</blockquote><blockquote>79. FTX Structured Products AG</blockquote><blockquote>80. FTX Switzerland GmbH</blockquote><blockquote>81. FTX Trading GmbH</blockquote><blockquote>82. FTX Trading Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>83. FTX TURKEY TEKNOLOJİ VE TİCARET ANONİM ŞİRKET</blockquote><blockquote>84. FTX US Derivatives LLC</blockquote><blockquote>85. FTX US Services, Inc.</blockquote><blockquote>86. FTX US Trading, Inc</blockquote><blockquote>87. FTX Vault Trust Company</blockquote><blockquote>88. FTX Ventures Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>89. FTX Ventures Partnership</blockquote><blockquote>90. FTX Zuma Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>91. GG Trading Terminal Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>92. Global Compass Dynamics Ltd.</blockquote><blockquote>93. Good Luck Games, LLC</blockquote><blockquote>94. Goodman Investments Ltd.</blockquote><blockquote>95. Hannam Group Inc</blockquote><blockquote>96. Hawaii Digital Assets Inc.</blockquote><blockquote>97. Hilltop Technology Services LLC</blockquote><blockquote>98. Hive Empire Trading Pty Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>99. Innovatia Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>100. Island Bay Ventures Inc</blockquote><blockquote>101. K-DNA Financial Services Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>102. Killarney Lake Investments Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>103. Ledger Holdings Inc.</blockquote><blockquote>104. LedgerPrime Bitcoin Yield Enhancement Fund, LLC</blockquote><blockquote>105. LedgerPrime Bitcoin Yield Enhancement Master Fund LP</blockquote><blockquote>106. LedgerPrime Digital Asset Opportunities Fund, LLC</blockquote><blockquote>107. LedgerPrime Digital Asset Opportunities Master Fund LP</blockquote><blockquote>108. Ledger Prime LLC</blockquote><blockquote>109. LedgerPrime Ventures, LP</blockquote><blockquote>110. Liquid Financial USA Inc.</blockquote><blockquote>111. LiquidEX LLC</blockquote><blockquote>112. Liquid Securities Singapore Pte Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>113. LT Baskets Ltd.</blockquote><blockquote>114. Maclaurin Investments Ltd.</blockquote><blockquote>115. Mangrove Cay Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>116. North Dimension Inc</blockquote><blockquote>117. North Dimension Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>118. North Wireless Dimension Inc</blockquote><blockquote>119. Paper Bird Inc</blockquote><blockquote>120. Pioneer Street Inc.</blockquote><blockquote>121. Quoine India Pte Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>122. Quoine Pte Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>123. Quoine Vietnam Co. Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>124. SNG INVESTMENTS YATIRIM VE DANIŞMANLIK ANONİM ŞİRKETİ</blockquote><blockquote>125. Strategy Ark Collective Ltd.</blockquote><blockquote>126. Technology Services Bahamas Limited</blockquote><blockquote>127. Tigetwit Ltd</blockquote><blockquote>129. Verdant Canyon Capital LLC</blockquote><blockquote>130. West Innovative Barista Ltd.</blockquote><blockquote>131. West Realm Shires Financial Services Inc.</blockquote><blockquote>132. West Realm Shires Services Inc.</blockquote><blockquote>133. Western Concord Enterprises Ltd.</blockquote><blockquote>134. Zubr Exchange Ltd</blockquote><p>风险提示及免责条款</p><p>市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>复杂程度远超雷曼，一图读懂轰然倒塌的FTX帝国</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n复杂程度远超雷曼，一图读懂轰然倒塌的FTX帝国\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-12 13:37 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674794><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>雷曼兄弟的报告整理花了整整18个月的时间，但其结构看起来要简单直白地多。相比之下，人们可能要等更长的时间，才能对FTX的整体架构有更为详细和精确的了解。11月11日周五美股盘前，FTX根据美国破产法第11章向美国联邦法院申请破产保护。一同申请破产的还有疑似风暴的始作俑者——加密货币对冲基金Alameda Research，以及号称运营和流动性完全未受FTX.com崩盘影响的FTX.US美国独立平台...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674794\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f1a26bb817de6639ca261862fe02525","relate_stocks":{"CRCT":"Cricut, Inc.","BK4082":"医疗保健设备","ONTF":"ON24, Inc.","BK4191":"家用电器","BOLT":"Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc.","APR":"Apria, Inc.","LABP":"Landos Biopharma, Inc.","BK4139":"生物科技","TERN":"Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","BK4539":"次新股","CGEM":"Cullinan Therapeutics","BK4023":"应用软件","LHDX":"Lucira Health, Inc.","BK4007":"制药","BK4196":"保健护理服务","SANA":"Sana Biotechnology, Inc."},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674794","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2282301544","content_text":"雷曼兄弟的报告整理花了整整18个月的时间，但其结构看起来要简单直白地多。相比之下，人们可能要等更长的时间，才能对FTX的整体架构有更为详细和精确的了解。11月11日周五美股盘前，FTX根据美国破产法第11章向美国联邦法院申请破产保护。一同申请破产的还有疑似风暴的始作俑者——加密货币对冲基金Alameda Research，以及号称运营和流动性完全未受FTX.com崩盘影响的FTX.US美国独立平台。它们连同大约130家申请破产的附属公司被统称为“FTX集团”。就此，SBF的庞大资本帝国彻底陨落。很多人将FTX的崩盘比作币圈的“雷曼时刻”，然而，其帝国构造的复杂程度远远超过了雷曼兄弟。周五，媒体整理了一份图表，图表显示了截至今年3月整个FTX集团的复杂结构。有几家公司需要特别注意：FTX Trading LTD在安提瓜和巴布达注册成立，是FTX法律免责声明中确定的基础公司，FTX交易所就由 FTX Trading LTD 所持有；West Realm Shires Inc是面向美国的子公司（即FTX.us），它还受到特拉华州的保护；在巴哈马注册的风险投资基金FTX Ventures Ltd，由特拉华州一家不知名控股公司 Paper Bird 全资持有，而 Paper Bird 又由SBF全资持有；Paper Bird 似乎还持有FTX Trading LTD 89%的股份，并拥有 Alameda 的公司内部贷款；位于图表左下方的，是总部位于美国和开曼群岛的 LedgerPrime 实体，源于FTX去年对对冲基金 Ledger Holdings 的收购；FTX将 LedgerPrime 的加密货币期货平台重新命名为 FTX US Derivatives LLC，并表示剩余业务将重组成一个家族办公室，专门为 Alameda 进行投资；Salameda Ltd（香港）由FTX的CFO Jen Chan 100%控股，似乎是通过服务协议与 Alameda 实体进行对接的外围机构。媒体表示，由于公开披露的信息是零散的，上述图表不一定完全准确，完整图表应该会在美国破产法第11章的审查报告中出现。可以预先知道的是，其复杂程度要远远超过雷曼兄弟。雷曼兄弟的报告整理花了整整18个月的时间，但其结构看起来要简单直白地多。相比之下，人们可能要等待更长的时间，才能对FTX的整体架构有更为详细和精确的了解。“FTX集团”的完整名单如下：1. Alameda Aus Pty Ltd2. Alameda Global Services Ltd.3. Alameda Research (Bahamas) Ltd4. Alameda Research Holdings Inc.5. Alameda Research KK6. Alameda Research LLC7. Alameda Research Ltd8. Alameda Research Pte Ltd9. Alameda Research Yankari Ltd10. Alameda TR Ltd11. Alameda TR Systems S. de R. L.12. Allston Way Ltd13. Altalix Ltd14. Analisya Pte Ltd15. Atlantis Technology Ltd.21. Bancroft Way Ltd28. Bitvo, Inc.29. Blockfolio Holdings, Inc.30. Blockfolio, Inc.31. Blue Ridge Ltd37. BTLS Limited Tanzania38. Cardinal Ventures Ltd39. Cedar Bay Ltd40. Cedar Grove Technology Services, Ltd41. Clifton Bay Investments LLC42. Clifton Bay Investments Ltd43. CM-Equity AG44. Corner Stone Staffing45. Cottonwood Grove Ltd46. Cottonwood Technologies Ltd.47. Crypto Bahamas LLC48. DAAG Trading, DMCC49. Deck Technologies Holdings LLC50. Deck Technologies Inc.51. Deep Creek Ltd52. Digital Custody Inc.53. Euclid Way Ltd60. FTX (Gibraltar) Ltd61. FTX Canada Inc62. FTX Certificates GmbH63. FTX Crypto Services Ltd.64. FTX Digital Assets LLC65. FTX Digital Holdings (Singapore) Pte Ltd66. FTX EMEA Ltd.67. FTX Equity Record Holdings Ltd68. FTX Europe AG69. FTX Exchange FZE70. FTX Hong Kong Ltd71. FTX Japan Holdings K.K.72. FTX Japan K.K.73. FTX Japan Services KK74. FTX Lend Inc.75. FTX Marketplace, Inc.76. FTX Products (Singapore) Pte Ltd77. FTX Property Holdings Ltd78. FTX Services Solutions Ltd.79. FTX Structured Products AG80. FTX Switzerland GmbH81. FTX Trading GmbH82. FTX Trading Ltd83. FTX TURKEY TEKNOLOJİ VE TİCARET ANONİM ŞİRKET84. FTX US Derivatives LLC85. FTX US Services, Inc.86. FTX US Trading, Inc87. FTX Vault Trust Company88. FTX Ventures Ltd89. FTX Ventures Partnership90. FTX Zuma Ltd91. GG Trading Terminal Ltd92. Global Compass Dynamics Ltd.93. Good Luck Games, LLC94. Goodman Investments Ltd.95. Hannam Group Inc96. Hawaii Digital Assets Inc.97. Hilltop Technology Services LLC98. Hive Empire Trading Pty Ltd99. Innovatia Ltd100. Island Bay Ventures Inc101. K-DNA Financial Services Ltd102. Killarney Lake Investments Ltd103. Ledger Holdings Inc.104. LedgerPrime Bitcoin Yield Enhancement Fund, LLC105. LedgerPrime Bitcoin Yield Enhancement Master Fund LP106. LedgerPrime Digital Asset Opportunities Fund, LLC107. LedgerPrime Digital Asset Opportunities Master Fund LP108. Ledger Prime LLC109. LedgerPrime Ventures, LP110. Liquid Financial USA Inc.111. LiquidEX LLC112. Liquid Securities Singapore Pte Ltd113. LT Baskets Ltd.114. Maclaurin Investments Ltd.115. Mangrove Cay Ltd116. North Dimension Inc117. North Dimension Ltd118. North Wireless Dimension Inc119. Paper Bird Inc120. Pioneer Street Inc.121. Quoine India Pte Ltd122. Quoine Pte Ltd123. Quoine Vietnam Co. Ltd124. SNG INVESTMENTS YATIRIM VE DANIŞMANLIK ANONİM ŞİRKETİ125. Strategy Ark Collective Ltd.126. Technology Services Bahamas Limited127. Tigetwit Ltd129. Verdant Canyon Capital LLC130. West Innovative Barista Ltd.131. West Realm Shires Financial Services Inc.132. West Realm Shires Services Inc.133. Western Concord Enterprises Ltd.134. Zubr Exchange Ltd风险提示及免责条款市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":664927575,"gmtCreate":1667773899897,"gmtModify":1667773900932,"author":{"id":"3461633891972908","authorId":"3461633891972908","name":"林华","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3461633891972908","authorIdStr":"3461633891972908"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2212(NQmain)$</a>开大开小？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2212(NQmain)$</a>开大开小？","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2212(NQmain)$开大开小？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/664927575","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1244,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":665829431,"gmtCreate":1667203978124,"gmtModify":1667203979998,"author":{"id":"3461633891972908","authorId":"3461633891972908","name":"林华","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3461633891972908","authorIdStr":"3461633891972908"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2212(NQmain)$</a>还有救？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2212(NQmain)$</a>还有救？","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2212(NQmain)$还有救？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/665829431","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":971,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":922936394,"gmtCreate":1587404381218,"gmtModify":1704364039879,"author":{"id":"3461633891972908","authorId":"3461633891972908","name":"林华","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3461633891972908","authorIdStr":"3461633891972908"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CL2005\">$WTI原油2005(CL2005)$</a>火钳刘明","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CL2005\">$WTI原油2005(CL2005)$</a>火钳刘明","text":"$WTI原油2005(CL2005)$火钳刘明","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/922936394","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1067,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":922066026,"gmtCreate":1587393394765,"gmtModify":1704363939774,"author":{"id":"3461633891972908","authorId":"3461633891972908","name":"林华","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3461633891972908","authorIdStr":"3461633891972908"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"牛批","listText":"牛批","text":"牛批","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/922066026","repostId":"1101129288","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101129288","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1587391948,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101129288?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-04-20 22:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"利率与文明：理解700年利率史的四个维度","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101129288","media":"宇观新时代","summary":"理解利率历史的四个维度：战争、宗教、政治和经济，它们共同解释了利率下行的趋势。从工业革命开始，经济的重要性凸显，二战后，或是唯一重要的变量。\n19世纪英国自由主义思想家、曾四度出任英国首相的格莱德斯通","content":"<p>理解利率历史的四个维度：战争、宗教、政治和经济，它们共同解释了利率下行的趋势。从工业革命开始，经济的重要性凸显，二战后，或是唯一重要的变量。</p>\n<p><span>19世纪英国自由主义思想家、曾四度出任英国首相的格莱德斯通（W. Gladstone）爵士曾说过：“因专研货币的本质而受愚弄的人，甚至比受爱情所愚弄的人还多。”利率，作为货币（或债务）的一种价格，比之于货币的本质，其迷惑性只会更高。</span></p>\n<p><span>利率有着极其复杂的理论体系。一般而言，在回答利率是由什么决定之前，先要问：什么利率？谁的利率（美国和墨西哥的国债利率是不一样的）？长期利率，还是短期利率？中性利率，还是市场利率？作为金融资产定价的分母，利率的重要性不言而言，研究者和投资者为其倾注了大量的心血。笔者并不打算详尽综述经济学理论上对此问题的探讨，只是想结合700年利率史的特征事实，简析其下行趋势背后的逻辑。</span></p>\n<p><span>不同时期，实际利率水平的高低，以及引导实际利率波动的力量是不同的。庞巴维克称，利率是一个国家</span><span><b>文化</b></span><span>水平的反映——一个民族的智力和道德力量越强大，其自由市场利率水平越低。笔者认为，倒不如说，利率是</span><span><b>文明</b></span><span>水平的反应。</span></p>\n<p><span>文明是一个比文化更广的概念，它是“放大了的文化，”（亨廷顿，《文明的冲突与世界秩序的重建》），是“文化特征和现象的集合”（布罗代尔），是“世界观、习俗、结构和文化（物质文化和高层文化）的特殊结合”（沃勒斯坦）。由史观之，显著影响利率水平的是文明的四个维度：战争、宗教、政治和商业（经济）。从中世纪到后工业化时代，是一个从战争到和平、宗教文明从垄断到包容、政治从专制到宪政和商业从农业到工业的演化过程。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>中世纪到二战结束以前的较长时期内，频繁的战争和商品货币制度下的萧条是两个主要因素</b></span><span>（Schmelzing，2020）。战争时期，融资需求增加，名义利率上升。反之，和平时期，利率则会下降。实证证据也显示，在同一个时期内（朝代更替），利率往往呈现出先降后升的“U型”特征（图1）。由于铸币制度天然有通缩的倾向，所以在战争时期，实际利率往往也会上升。当然，金矿的发现，或政府降低铸币含金（银）量的行为也会导致物价暴涨和实际利率下降（图2）。如图1所示，百年战争、黑死病和“黄金大饥荒”（The Great Bullion Famine）是15世纪实际利率高企的主要原因。所以，和平替代战争成为主流，与此同时，人类逐渐认识到了通胀的恶果，并找到了驯服通货膨胀的方法，是名义和实际利率下行的重要原因。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>图1：战争与名义利率波动</span></b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dd6fd598a4e508922394709728c8123\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源：Schmelzing，2020，东方证券</span></p>\n<p><b><span>图2：全球通胀或通缩的演化（1318-2018）</span></b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93745d69ec69ff3f662996ab6c365238\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源：Schmelzing，2020，东方证券</span></p>\n<p><span><b>宗教文明，及其定义的“道德”也影响着利率水平。</b></span><span>借贷行为早在史前的物物交换时代就存在了，但至少从古希腊至中世纪的较长时期内，收取利息都被视为一种邪恶、无耻和不道德的行为，尤其是高利贷。所以，古法典，如《汉谟拉比法典》、《十二铜表法》等都有关于利息上限的规定。利息（interest）一词的拉丁语为interisse，意指损失，而非收益。这一概念源自罗马法典。它认为，</span><span><b>利息是放贷人发放贷款后的受损地位与他没有放贷时的地位的差别。</b></span><span>起初，如果利息被认为是放贷者的收益，就是不合法的，但如果是对贷款人的损失或费用的补偿，那就合法了。1220年左右，这种释义被标准化（霍默和西勒，2017，p.59）。某种意义上讲，利息对应的是现代经济学语境中的机会成本，因为这些钱如果没有借出去的话，它本可以在别处创造利润。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6476bc2e674e5f88d816bbe7f4c6439\"></p>\n<p><span>摄于法国.巴黎圣母院， 2015年复活节后</span></p>\n<p><span>受宗教改革的影响，至16世纪，借贷和收取利息的行为首先被基督教接纳。18世纪，天主教会也逐渐认可了信贷的合法性。在1822年到1836年间，经宗教法庭（Holy Office）裁定，法律认可的利息可以为任何人收取。迟至1950年，罗马天主教教皇庇护十二世（Pius Ⅶ）才宣布银行家们收取利息的行为是“在诚实地谋生，”从而认可了金融体系。但是，几乎在任何时候，高利贷都是非法的，即使是合法的利息，也都有比较明确的上限约束。一般认为，年利率5%-10%是比较合理的。有意思的是，上限约束大多数情况下只适用于非公共债务，因此，政府也就可以轻而易举的以略高于上限的利率借款。这一点对于战时政府来说尤其重要。文艺复兴末期开始，利率显著下降，比如在15世纪的意大利，商业贷款利率低至5%，17世纪末期荷兰的商业贷款利率甚至下降到了2%。</span></p>\n<p><span>当然，在不同时期和不同国家（或城邦），依据借款人信用、期限、是否可赎回或有无抵押品的差别，利息差异很明显。这种差异更多时候并非市场力量所致，而是取决于人们的流行观念和国家预算需求的合力。超过法律上限的利率也并非罕见。一般情况下，因为信用和抵押品的差异，对国家（或君主）的贷款利息反而要高于商业贷款。这与当今正好相反，国债利率被认为是无风险收益率。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>第三个维度是政治文明。</span></b><span>马西在《论决定自然利息率的原因》这本小册子中，首先从经济学的范畴（借贷和商品交易）阐明，决定自然利息率的是利润率，而后将逻辑向前推演，认为更基础的本源是政治。政治秩序把不同地方的人区别开来，“一些人只是为了眼前的需要而劳动，但是，在人们对未来给予关注的地方，劳动则是出于今后能享受他们目前勤劳的果实的期望，但并不是所有地方的人都能抱有这种期望。这也就是为什么某一国家的人很勤劳，另一国家的人很懒惰，而第三个国家的人则既不非常勤劳，也不非常懒惰的原因。”马西下此结论，是因为他发现，在同一个时期，“在政治上享有自由、人们的私人权利也得到最好保护的大不列颠和荷兰，利息率较低，商人在这两个国家人口总数中的占比，大于法国、葡萄牙、德国和西班牙，或欧洲的任何其他国家，在这些国家，政治是专横的，私人财产也不那么安全。”</span></p>\n<p><span>马西总结到：</span><span><b>自然利息率决定于工商企业的利润（正相关）；商业利润决定于商人数目同商业规模之比；商人数目决定于（从商）的必要性和对商业的鼓励程度</b></span><span>，这决定于政治秩序对私人权利的保护和社会安全等。这也是理解资本为什么从稀缺国流向丰裕国的原因，这是违背经济学原理的，但符合政治逻辑。资本逐利的同时，还规避风险。</span></p>\n<p><span>以上三个维度对前现代社会的利率走势有较强的解释力，甚至可以延伸到二战结束之前的历史时期，但它们对于分析战后利率的走势不甚明显。这是因为，二战后，基本可以将它们看作是进入到了稳态，反而是经济层面，从第一次工业革命开始，就成为塑造现代社会的主要力量。所以，我们将更多的从商业层面——实体经济层面的供给与需求，金融市场上的投资者偏好、债务规模和结构，全球资本流动等，以及货币与政策的逆周期调节（和协同）等——对其进行解释。</span></p>\n<p><span>当中，一个中心概念是自然利率，以及与之相关的潜在增长率和利润率的概念。技术上，自然利率指的是在充分就业的状态下，使得投资和储蓄相等的利率水平，所以是一种均衡利率，从而是利率波动的中枢。美联储理事布雷纳德（Brainard，2018）在一次演讲中提到，美联储在设定长期联邦基金利率时，就是以自然利率分析框架为依据的，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的预测报告中公布的实际上就是较长期自然利率。（布雷纳德使用的是“中性利率”的概念，它指的是这样一种利率，即令经济产出在充分就业和稳定通胀的状态下能够围绕其潜在增长率增长。但她认为，技术上，可以忽略中性利率与自然利率的区别。）</span></p>\n<p><span>霍默和西勒在《利率史》中开宗明义地说：“任何一个工业化国家的自由市场长期利率，只要收取得当，都能提供那个国家经济和政治健康状态的一种动态图。”如果说历史上的利率下行反应的是商品货币制度下人类社会从野蛮到文明，从战争到和平的演进，那么，近百年来的利率下行则表现的是信用货币制度和全球化背景下人口、财富分配和科学技术等因素的合力。名义负利率体现的不是文明的进步，而是经济的一种亚健康状态，即人口结构的老龄化、财富分配的失衡、技术进步的僵局、债务型增长的不可持续和货币政策空间的收缩，当然，它还反应了投资者风险偏好和期限溢价等方面的变化。世界是否会全面进入负利率时代，关键在于推动利率下行的力量是否会出现反转。</span></p>","source":"lsy1583916832773","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n利率与文明：理解700年利率史的四个维度\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-04-20 22:12 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/366236><strong>宇观新时代</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>理解利率历史的四个维度：战争、宗教、政治和经济，它们共同解释了利率下行的趋势。从工业革命开始，经济的重要性凸显，二战后，或是唯一重要的变量。\n19世纪英国自由主义思想家、曾四度出任英国首相的格莱德斯通（W. Gladstone）爵士曾说过：“因专研货币的本质而受愚弄的人，甚至比受爱情所愚弄的人还多。”利率，作为货币（或债务）的一种价格，比之于货币的本质，其迷惑性只会更高。\n利率有着极其复杂的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/366236\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d18e6c8ffa92cde53e56ec0f6068014d","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/366236","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101129288","content_text":"理解利率历史的四个维度：战争、宗教、政治和经济，它们共同解释了利率下行的趋势。从工业革命开始，经济的重要性凸显，二战后，或是唯一重要的变量。\n19世纪英国自由主义思想家、曾四度出任英国首相的格莱德斯通（W. Gladstone）爵士曾说过：“因专研货币的本质而受愚弄的人，甚至比受爱情所愚弄的人还多。”利率，作为货币（或债务）的一种价格，比之于货币的本质，其迷惑性只会更高。\n利率有着极其复杂的理论体系。一般而言，在回答利率是由什么决定之前，先要问：什么利率？谁的利率（美国和墨西哥的国债利率是不一样的）？长期利率，还是短期利率？中性利率，还是市场利率？作为金融资产定价的分母，利率的重要性不言而言，研究者和投资者为其倾注了大量的心血。笔者并不打算详尽综述经济学理论上对此问题的探讨，只是想结合700年利率史的特征事实，简析其下行趋势背后的逻辑。\n不同时期，实际利率水平的高低，以及引导实际利率波动的力量是不同的。庞巴维克称，利率是一个国家文化水平的反映——一个民族的智力和道德力量越强大，其自由市场利率水平越低。笔者认为，倒不如说，利率是文明水平的反应。\n文明是一个比文化更广的概念，它是“放大了的文化，”（亨廷顿，《文明的冲突与世界秩序的重建》），是“文化特征和现象的集合”（布罗代尔），是“世界观、习俗、结构和文化（物质文化和高层文化）的特殊结合”（沃勒斯坦）。由史观之，显著影响利率水平的是文明的四个维度：战争、宗教、政治和商业（经济）。从中世纪到后工业化时代，是一个从战争到和平、宗教文明从垄断到包容、政治从专制到宪政和商业从农业到工业的演化过程。\n中世纪到二战结束以前的较长时期内，频繁的战争和商品货币制度下的萧条是两个主要因素（Schmelzing，2020）。战争时期，融资需求增加，名义利率上升。反之，和平时期，利率则会下降。实证证据也显示，在同一个时期内（朝代更替），利率往往呈现出先降后升的“U型”特征（图1）。由于铸币制度天然有通缩的倾向，所以在战争时期，实际利率往往也会上升。当然，金矿的发现，或政府降低铸币含金（银）量的行为也会导致物价暴涨和实际利率下降（图2）。如图1所示，百年战争、黑死病和“黄金大饥荒”（The Great Bullion Famine）是15世纪实际利率高企的主要原因。所以，和平替代战争成为主流，与此同时，人类逐渐认识到了通胀的恶果，并找到了驯服通货膨胀的方法，是名义和实际利率下行的重要原因。\n图1：战争与名义利率波动\n\n数据来源：Schmelzing，2020，东方证券\n图2：全球通胀或通缩的演化（1318-2018）\n\n数据来源：Schmelzing，2020，东方证券\n宗教文明，及其定义的“道德”也影响着利率水平。借贷行为早在史前的物物交换时代就存在了，但至少从古希腊至中世纪的较长时期内，收取利息都被视为一种邪恶、无耻和不道德的行为，尤其是高利贷。所以，古法典，如《汉谟拉比法典》、《十二铜表法》等都有关于利息上限的规定。利息（interest）一词的拉丁语为interisse，意指损失，而非收益。这一概念源自罗马法典。它认为，利息是放贷人发放贷款后的受损地位与他没有放贷时的地位的差别。起初，如果利息被认为是放贷者的收益，就是不合法的，但如果是对贷款人的损失或费用的补偿，那就合法了。1220年左右，这种释义被标准化（霍默和西勒，2017，p.59）。某种意义上讲，利息对应的是现代经济学语境中的机会成本，因为这些钱如果没有借出去的话，它本可以在别处创造利润。\n\n摄于法国.巴黎圣母院， 2015年复活节后\n受宗教改革的影响，至16世纪，借贷和收取利息的行为首先被基督教接纳。18世纪，天主教会也逐渐认可了信贷的合法性。在1822年到1836年间，经宗教法庭（Holy Office）裁定，法律认可的利息可以为任何人收取。迟至1950年，罗马天主教教皇庇护十二世（Pius Ⅶ）才宣布银行家们收取利息的行为是“在诚实地谋生，”从而认可了金融体系。但是，几乎在任何时候，高利贷都是非法的，即使是合法的利息，也都有比较明确的上限约束。一般认为，年利率5%-10%是比较合理的。有意思的是，上限约束大多数情况下只适用于非公共债务，因此，政府也就可以轻而易举的以略高于上限的利率借款。这一点对于战时政府来说尤其重要。文艺复兴末期开始，利率显著下降，比如在15世纪的意大利，商业贷款利率低至5%，17世纪末期荷兰的商业贷款利率甚至下降到了2%。\n当然，在不同时期和不同国家（或城邦），依据借款人信用、期限、是否可赎回或有无抵押品的差别，利息差异很明显。这种差异更多时候并非市场力量所致，而是取决于人们的流行观念和国家预算需求的合力。超过法律上限的利率也并非罕见。一般情况下，因为信用和抵押品的差异，对国家（或君主）的贷款利息反而要高于商业贷款。这与当今正好相反，国债利率被认为是无风险收益率。\n第三个维度是政治文明。马西在《论决定自然利息率的原因》这本小册子中，首先从经济学的范畴（借贷和商品交易）阐明，决定自然利息率的是利润率，而后将逻辑向前推演，认为更基础的本源是政治。政治秩序把不同地方的人区别开来，“一些人只是为了眼前的需要而劳动，但是，在人们对未来给予关注的地方，劳动则是出于今后能享受他们目前勤劳的果实的期望，但并不是所有地方的人都能抱有这种期望。这也就是为什么某一国家的人很勤劳，另一国家的人很懒惰，而第三个国家的人则既不非常勤劳，也不非常懒惰的原因。”马西下此结论，是因为他发现，在同一个时期，“在政治上享有自由、人们的私人权利也得到最好保护的大不列颠和荷兰，利息率较低，商人在这两个国家人口总数中的占比，大于法国、葡萄牙、德国和西班牙，或欧洲的任何其他国家，在这些国家，政治是专横的，私人财产也不那么安全。”\n马西总结到：自然利息率决定于工商企业的利润（正相关）；商业利润决定于商人数目同商业规模之比；商人数目决定于（从商）的必要性和对商业的鼓励程度，这决定于政治秩序对私人权利的保护和社会安全等。这也是理解资本为什么从稀缺国流向丰裕国的原因，这是违背经济学原理的，但符合政治逻辑。资本逐利的同时，还规避风险。\n以上三个维度对前现代社会的利率走势有较强的解释力，甚至可以延伸到二战结束之前的历史时期，但它们对于分析战后利率的走势不甚明显。这是因为，二战后，基本可以将它们看作是进入到了稳态，反而是经济层面，从第一次工业革命开始，就成为塑造现代社会的主要力量。所以，我们将更多的从商业层面——实体经济层面的供给与需求，金融市场上的投资者偏好、债务规模和结构，全球资本流动等，以及货币与政策的逆周期调节（和协同）等——对其进行解释。\n当中，一个中心概念是自然利率，以及与之相关的潜在增长率和利润率的概念。技术上，自然利率指的是在充分就业的状态下，使得投资和储蓄相等的利率水平，所以是一种均衡利率，从而是利率波动的中枢。美联储理事布雷纳德（Brainard，2018）在一次演讲中提到，美联储在设定长期联邦基金利率时，就是以自然利率分析框架为依据的，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的预测报告中公布的实际上就是较长期自然利率。（布雷纳德使用的是“中性利率”的概念，它指的是这样一种利率，即令经济产出在充分就业和稳定通胀的状态下能够围绕其潜在增长率增长。但她认为，技术上，可以忽略中性利率与自然利率的区别。）\n霍默和西勒在《利率史》中开宗明义地说：“任何一个工业化国家的自由市场长期利率，只要收取得当，都能提供那个国家经济和政治健康状态的一种动态图。”如果说历史上的利率下行反应的是商品货币制度下人类社会从野蛮到文明，从战争到和平的演进，那么，近百年来的利率下行则表现的是信用货币制度和全球化背景下人口、财富分配和科学技术等因素的合力。名义负利率体现的不是文明的进步，而是经济的一种亚健康状态，即人口结构的老龄化、财富分配的失衡、技术进步的僵局、债务型增长的不可持续和货币政策空间的收缩，当然，它还反应了投资者风险偏好和期限溢价等方面的变化。世界是否会全面进入负利率时代，关键在于推动利率下行的力量是否会出现反转。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":894,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
