朱大哥的个人主页 - 老虎社区

朱大哥

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2021-12-30

$騰訊音樂(TME)$昨天砍掉今天就漲了

2021-12-27

$騰訊音樂(TME)$沒有獨家版權沒關係，有獨家元宇宙就行

2021-12-20

$騰訊音樂(TME)$中概股已死

2021-12-09

$騰訊音樂(TME)$空

2021-12-06

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2021-12-02

$騰訊音樂(TME)$回港上市吧，在美國只會一直被機構做空而已，沒意義

2021-12-02

公司要倒了嗎

2021-11-30

$騰訊音樂(TME)$無腦做空就對了

2021-11-29

$騰訊音樂(TME)$變種病毒來襲，線上音樂即將大爆發

2021-11-27

$騰訊音樂(TME)$再跌乾脆下市算了，沒意義

2021-11-24

$騰訊音樂(TME)$中國音樂龍頭就值這個價嗎？可笑啊

2021-11-23

$騰訊控股(00700)$要課徵data tax了嗎

2021-11-22

$騰訊音樂(TME)$網易乾脆來收購TME

2021-11-19

$騰訊音樂(TME)$演唱會元宇宙

2021-11-18

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2021-11-15

$Take-Two Interactive Software(TTWO)$怎麼大跌，發生什麼事

2021-11-09

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2021-11-05

只要遇到一波房價下跌，這種公司就會破產

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2021-11-02

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2021-10-28

$騰訊音樂(TME)$中國優質股票為什麼要賤價賣給外國人

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Software(TTWO)$怎麼大跌，發生什麼事","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873741604","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3577396949861918","authorId":"3577396949861918","name":"叶小噎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fa9b0be708f966fd10a041f5b03b3bd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"gta三部曲重制版做的要多烂有多烂，网上被骂爆了，r星下坡路明显，有点要走暴雪的路样子，正在犹豫要不要清仓…","text":"gta三部曲重制版做的要多烂有多烂，网上被骂爆了，r星下坡路明显，有点要走暴雪的路样子，正在犹豫要不要清仓…","html":"gta三部曲重制版做的要多烂有多烂，网上被骂爆了，r星下坡路明显，有点要走暴雪的路样子，正在犹豫要不要清仓…"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":844864753,"gmtCreate":1636417312370,"gmtModify":1636417312370,"author":{"id":"3459583697004121","authorId":"3459583697004121","name":"朱大哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">$騰訊音樂(TME)$</a>期待推出演唱會元宇宙","text":"$騰訊音樂(TME)$期待推出演唱會元宇宙","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844864753","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846405490,"gmtCreate":1636101775021,"gmtModify":1636101775021,"author":{"id":"3459583697004121","authorId":"3459583697004121","name":"朱大哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"只要遇到一波房價下跌，這種公司就會破產","listText":"只要遇到一波房價下跌，這種公司就會破產","text":"只要遇到一波房價下跌，這種公司就會破產","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846405490","repostId":"2180737766","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2180737766","pubTimestamp":1636006714,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2180737766?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-04 14:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Zillow暴雷——一个资本被韭菜们收割的故事","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2180737766","media":"智通财经网","summary":"让Zillow股价一年翻了10倍的iBuyer模式，一夜之间跌落神坛。","content":"<p>美国最著名的地产高科技公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a>暴雷了!</p>\n<p>11月2日，Zillow宣布退出之前被华尔街广泛看好的 “炒房” 业务(iBuyer)，当日内Zillow股价暴跌超过10%，然后11月3日开盘再次下跌17.5%。</p>\n<p>而就在短短几个月前，Zillow股价最高到达过$208，现在仅剩下$70！受到Zillow影响，同样做iBuyer业务的Opendoor，股价也大幅跳水，一日之内下跌了15%。</p>\n<p>曾经被认为是互联网地产行业的暴富神话，让Zillow股价一年翻了10倍的iBuyer模式，一夜之间跌落神坛。</p>\n<p>要了解这个巨星是如何陨落的，就让我来给大家讲一个“资本反被韭菜们收割”的故事吧。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/919ec4a816f7d12f22d183a1acdbbde5\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>一、信箱中的手写黄纸条</b></p>\n<p>不知道从何时开始，在美国和加拿大的很多地方，人们会在信箱或门缝里收到一张黄色的手写小纸条。</p>\n<p>纸条的大概意思就是，我是一个在这个小区购买房屋的投资人，我看中了你的房子，我愿意支付给你现金买你的房子，而且可以很短的时间内就closing，感兴趣请拨打电话XXX-XXX-XXXX。</p>\n<p>纸条上也经常会写上，把房子卖给投资人的好处：</p>\n<p>1、不通过经纪，不需要支付任何经纪费用</p>\n<p>2、不需要维修房子，sold “as is”</p>\n<p>3、没有open house，不用showing</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb0747b38fd4da9d03b208fb216ff230\" tg-width=\"718\" tg-height=\"930\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但是很快就有主流媒体开始报道这个现象，并且警告屋主们要小心，因为这很可能是一个“骗局“。</p>\n<p>媒体经过调查发现，这些所谓的“投资人”，往往只报给卖家大约市场价的70%-80%甚至更低的价格。</p>\n<p>这些“投资人”一般会选择那些比较老的社区，比如在多伦多那些midtown的老城区。因为那里有很多单身的老人，他们平时不会很关心房价，并不了解市场的具体情况，而且很多老人也为了省心，想到不用维修就可以卖房子，于是就以非常低的价格把房子卖给了这些“投资人“。</p>\n<p>而这些”投资人“买到房子后，给房子稍作装修，迅速以高于买入价20%-30%甚至更高的价格把房子卖出!</p>\n<p>很多老人在看到房子重新卖掉的价格后，才大呼上当，但是也于事无补了。</p>\n<p>简单说，要想靠这种方法赚钱，主要是两个途径：</p>\n<p>1、 尽量低于市场价，利用信息不对称，从不了解市场的买家手里低价买入房子</p>\n<p>2、 希望市场价格能够高速增长，这样能够以更高的价格卖出</p>\n<p><b>二、iBuyer模式的起源</b></p>\n<p>互联网房地产业，在2014年开启了一种全新的赚钱模式——iBuyer!</p>\n<p>创始人Eric Wu是个深谙互联网金融玩法的人。他曾经创立过另外一家地产数据公司Movity，并且成功卖给了Zillow的竞争对手Trulia，获得了第一桶金。</p>\n<p>他很可能受到了黄色小纸条的启发，决心把黄色小纸条带到华尔街。当然他深知把黄色小纸条直接带到华尔街，逼格显然是不够的。</p>\n<p>所以一顿操作猛如虎，把各种互联网概念加到了这个传统的“炒房”模式上，并且把“i“加到”buying“或者”buyer“前面，立刻变得<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BJZ.SI\">高大</a>上起来。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00a03c976a5a3f9b6801da0ad29346f7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>然而归根到底，他们要说服买家不通过传统渠道卖房子，就要列出他们的优势。总结下来就是：</p>\n<p>1、不通过经纪，不需要支付任何经纪费用(但是他们会收一笔8%-20%的service fee)</p>\n<p>2、不需要维修房子，sold “as is” (但是iBuyer公司会收一笔之后他们维修的费用从卖家那里)</p>\n<p>3、没有open house，不用showing</p>\n<p>这几条怎么感觉看着这么眼熟?</p>\n<p><b>三、Zillow入局，iBuyer行业迎来春天</b></p>\n<p>虽然Opendoor在2014年就创立，但是一直也经营的不温不火。毕竟这个模式从赚钱逻辑上有很严重的缺陷：</p>\n<p>1、 相对于传统房地产买卖，iBuyer模式无形中增加了一次交易(需要转手两次)，因此大大增加了交易的成本。</p>\n<p>在美国，一般来说一次房地产交易的成本，即使不考虑经纪费用，仍然有房价2%-3%的交易成本。那么这个成本是谁来承担?最终吃亏的还是终端的买家和卖家。</p>\n<p>2、 黄色小纸条模式之所以能赚钱，是因为利用了信息不对称，可是互联网企业往往给客户提供大量的数据来吸引流量，所以严重的信息不对称是不存在的，iBuyer公司也就很难找到愿意低价卖房的人。</p>\n<p>3、 互联网公司要获得高估值，就需要快速扩张。而上面一条已经说了，因为互联网公司的特性，本来找到“傻子“的难度已经很大了，现在还需要找到“大量的傻子“。于是就出现“骗子太多，傻子明显不够用了”的窘境!</p>\n<p>幸运的是，上面也分析过，黄色小纸条模式有两个赚钱途径，既然第一个找“傻子”的途径走不下去，那还可以靠“市场价格高速增长”这个途径。</p>\n<p>下图是过去20多年美国房价在调整过通胀后的走势(Case-Shiller Home Price Index)：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c841800c9dc7cce8792e029459c5349\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>可以看到，自从2014年iBuyer模式创立开始，美国的房价就一直在高速上涨。</p>\n<p>这就满足了黄色小纸条模式赚钱的第二条途径。于是急于通过提高营收来抬高股价的Zillow，就将目光投向了iBuyer市场，在2018年强势入局，开启了自己的iBuyer业务——Zillow Offers。</p>\n<p>Zillow也不是空手而来，凭借其多年来积累强大的AI定价技术，直接把行业带上了新高度!</p>\n<p>有趣的是，Zillow入局的最大受益者，莫过于其竞争对手Opendoor了。</p>\n<p>借着Zillow的强大人气，Opendoor于2018年成功融资4亿美金，又在2019年再融3亿，公司估值直接上升到38亿美金，并最终于2020年末成功上市。</p>\n<p><b>四、猎人成为猎物，资本反被韭菜们割了</b></p>\n<p>在Zillow入局iBuyer业务的同时，公司的创始人Rich Barton也重新回到CEO的位置，带领公司全力拓展iBuyer业务。</p>\n<p>他们给自己制定了一个激进的目标，要在2024年实现每个月购买5000套美国的物业，并且大量扩招员工。</p>\n<p>这样的扩张，使Zillow的“营业额“大幅增加：在暴雷前的第三季度，Zillow的营业额同比增长超过500%。</p>\n<p>这种增长，导致公司的股价快速飙升，从2020年初到2021年初的，公司的股价从$20多美金，飙升到$208美金，1年翻了10倍!让管理层和股民们迎来了一波又一波的高潮。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d5f57fe8fa58dda1eeb639fef94cfd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"847\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>而这种“成功”让Zillow公司从上到下都充满了自信。随着COVID-19疫情在美国的肆虐，美国政府实施了前所未有的货币宽松政策，这让美国的房市在疫情后快速上涨，也使得Zillow的iBuyer业务受益匪浅。</p>\n<p>然而，在表面的歌舞升平下，一场前所未有的危机也开始酝酿。</p>\n<p>Zillow看家的“本领”就是他们引以为豪的AI定价技术——Zestimate。通过多年的不断进化，这个AI定价技术，甚至可以把估价的误差缩小到5%以内。</p>\n<p>不过随着美国房价的不断疯狂上涨，这个AI模型也出现了问题：很多业内人士和卖家发现Zestimate往往会给出高于合理市场价格的评估，也就是说AI模型在定价上有点“超前了”。</p>\n<p>在2018年之前，当Zestimate出现偏差的时候，地产经纪们往往只是嗤之以鼻，告诉客户要以市场的实际成交为准。而且在房子最后成交后，事实也经常能证明专业的地产经纪的估价比Zestimate更准确。</p>\n<p>但是2018年以后，Zillow进入了iBuyer业务，也就是说，一旦Zestimate给出了估值，那么Zellow Offers就可能出给卖家这个价格的offer。</p>\n<p>这就形成了一个自证预言(self-fulfilling prophecy)：Zestimate的高估值，直接变成了市场成交价格，然后Zillow就会以更高的价格list到市场，继续推高市场价格。</p>\n<p>既然Zillow Offers和类似的Opendoor可以提供更高的价格给卖家，那么很多卖家更愿意选择卖给iBuyer。</p>\n<p>当然，由于Zillow和Opendoor会收取很高昂的服务费(8%-20%)，扣掉这个费用后到卖家手中的钱可能低于传统通过经纪卖房子，所以并不是所有房子都卖给了Zillow和Opendoor。不过，还是有相当多的房子高价卖给了Zillow。</p>\n<p>而随着第三季度美国房地产市场价格的增长放缓，Zillow的问题出现了。</p>\n<p>他们的AI定价模型太超前，高估了市场价格的增长速度，于是他们高价买入的房子，无法售出，最后竟然大部分低于买入价售出。</p>\n<p>要知道，即使他们用买入价原价售出，都要损失掉交易成本这部分，现在还要低于买入价售出，这就造成了巨大的亏损。</p>\n<p>在第三季度，Zillow一共卖出了3032套房屋，而根据财报，Zillow的iBuyer业务第三季度亏损是3.8亿美金。这样算下来，平均每套房子，Zillow亏损了超过12万美金!这是妥妥的资本被韭菜们的反向收割了!</p>\n<p><b>五、结语</b></p>\n<p>在11月2日的采访中，Zillow的创始人兼CEO Rich Barton解释说，房地产市场的价格波动比Zillow管理层原先预计的高很多，AI定价因此出了问题，所以公司决定停止Zillow Offers业务，并且裁员25%。</p>\n<p>这么看来，在Zillow公司股价飙涨的时候，从CEO到下面管理层，都过于自信了，他们相信AI可以很好的预测市场，最后竟然自己给自己洗脑了。</p>\n<p>奥斯卡·王尔德曾经说过：爱，始于自我欺骗，终于欺骗他人。而这个故事告诉我们：iBuyer模式，始于欺骗他人，终于自我欺骗。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2baf3ed49adee692a5804eda7c8ec586\" tg-width=\"748\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在Zillow宣布退出iBuyer业务后，市场上也有着各种不同版本的解读：</p>\n<p>有人认为Zillow退出iBuyer业务，预示着房价的反转，可能是这轮地产泡沫被戳破的起点。</p>\n<p>也有人认为没有了强大的竞争对手，Opendoor继续在iBuyer赛道可能走的会更顺利，反而更加看好这个业务。</p>\n<p>而我认为这次事件既表现出来在地产界人类暂时胜过AI，又表现出人类的不理性和贪婪。</p>\n<p>这种暴雷的事情仍将会一次次重演，无论是几年前中国各种O2O概念暴雷，到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WE\">WeWork</a>上市失败，再到现在的Zillow，这些底层商业逻辑就有问题的生意，就靠着野蛮扩张，迅速增加“营业额”，就可以不断推高估值，玩弄着资本和散户。</p>\n<p>就像黑格尔所说的：人类从历史中学到的唯一的教训，就是没有从历史中吸取到任何教训。</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zillow暴雷——一个资本被韭菜们收割的故事</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZillow暴雷——一个资本被韭菜们收割的故事\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-04 14:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/593266.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国最著名的地产高科技公司Zillow暴雷了!\n11月2日，Zillow宣布退出之前被华尔街广泛看好的 “炒房” 业务(iBuyer)，当日内Zillow股价暴跌超过10%，然后11月3日开盘再次下跌17.5%。\n而就在短短几个月前，Zillow股价最高到达过$208，现在仅剩下$70！受到Zillow影响，同样做iBuyer业务的Opendoor，股价也大幅跳水，一日之内下跌了15%。\n曾经被...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/593266.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1b1cf0c27a3195e205fafc401e5c94c","relate_stocks":{"Z":"Zillow"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/593266.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2180737766","content_text":"美国最著名的地产高科技公司Zillow暴雷了!\n11月2日，Zillow宣布退出之前被华尔街广泛看好的 “炒房” 业务(iBuyer)，当日内Zillow股价暴跌超过10%，然后11月3日开盘再次下跌17.5%。\n而就在短短几个月前，Zillow股价最高到达过$208，现在仅剩下$70！受到Zillow影响，同样做iBuyer业务的Opendoor，股价也大幅跳水，一日之内下跌了15%。\n曾经被认为是互联网地产行业的暴富神话，让Zillow股价一年翻了10倍的iBuyer模式，一夜之间跌落神坛。\n要了解这个巨星是如何陨落的，就让我来给大家讲一个“资本反被韭菜们收割”的故事吧。\n一、信箱中的手写黄纸条\n不知道从何时开始，在美国和加拿大的很多地方，人们会在信箱或门缝里收到一张黄色的手写小纸条。\n纸条的大概意思就是，我是一个在这个小区购买房屋的投资人，我看中了你的房子，我愿意支付给你现金买你的房子，而且可以很短的时间内就closing，感兴趣请拨打电话XXX-XXX-XXXX。\n纸条上也经常会写上，把房子卖给投资人的好处：\n1、不通过经纪，不需要支付任何经纪费用\n2、不需要维修房子，sold “as is”\n3、没有open house，不用showing\n\n但是很快就有主流媒体开始报道这个现象，并且警告屋主们要小心，因为这很可能是一个“骗局“。\n媒体经过调查发现，这些所谓的“投资人”，往往只报给卖家大约市场价的70%-80%甚至更低的价格。\n这些“投资人”一般会选择那些比较老的社区，比如在多伦多那些midtown的老城区。因为那里有很多单身的老人，他们平时不会很关心房价，并不了解市场的具体情况，而且很多老人也为了省心，想到不用维修就可以卖房子，于是就以非常低的价格把房子卖给了这些“投资人“。\n而这些”投资人“买到房子后，给房子稍作装修，迅速以高于买入价20%-30%甚至更高的价格把房子卖出!\n很多老人在看到房子重新卖掉的价格后，才大呼上当，但是也于事无补了。\n简单说，要想靠这种方法赚钱，主要是两个途径：\n1、 尽量低于市场价，利用信息不对称，从不了解市场的买家手里低价买入房子\n2、 希望市场价格能够高速增长，这样能够以更高的价格卖出\n二、iBuyer模式的起源\n互联网房地产业，在2014年开启了一种全新的赚钱模式——iBuyer!\n创始人Eric Wu是个深谙互联网金融玩法的人。他曾经创立过另外一家地产数据公司Movity，并且成功卖给了Zillow的竞争对手Trulia，获得了第一桶金。\n他很可能受到了黄色小纸条的启发，决心把黄色小纸条带到华尔街。当然他深知把黄色小纸条直接带到华尔街，逼格显然是不够的。\n所以一顿操作猛如虎，把各种互联网概念加到了这个传统的“炒房”模式上，并且把“i“加到”buying“或者”buyer“前面，立刻变得高大上起来。\n\n然而归根到底，他们要说服买家不通过传统渠道卖房子，就要列出他们的优势。总结下来就是：\n1、不通过经纪，不需要支付任何经纪费用(但是他们会收一笔8%-20%的service fee)\n2、不需要维修房子，sold “as is” (但是iBuyer公司会收一笔之后他们维修的费用从卖家那里)\n3、没有open house，不用showing\n这几条怎么感觉看着这么眼熟?\n三、Zillow入局，iBuyer行业迎来春天\n虽然Opendoor在2014年就创立，但是一直也经营的不温不火。毕竟这个模式从赚钱逻辑上有很严重的缺陷：\n1、 相对于传统房地产买卖，iBuyer模式无形中增加了一次交易(需要转手两次)，因此大大增加了交易的成本。\n在美国，一般来说一次房地产交易的成本，即使不考虑经纪费用，仍然有房价2%-3%的交易成本。那么这个成本是谁来承担?最终吃亏的还是终端的买家和卖家。\n2、 黄色小纸条模式之所以能赚钱，是因为利用了信息不对称，可是互联网企业往往给客户提供大量的数据来吸引流量，所以严重的信息不对称是不存在的，iBuyer公司也就很难找到愿意低价卖房的人。\n3、 互联网公司要获得高估值，就需要快速扩张。而上面一条已经说了，因为互联网公司的特性，本来找到“傻子“的难度已经很大了，现在还需要找到“大量的傻子“。于是就出现“骗子太多，傻子明显不够用了”的窘境!\n幸运的是，上面也分析过，黄色小纸条模式有两个赚钱途径，既然第一个找“傻子”的途径走不下去，那还可以靠“市场价格高速增长”这个途径。\n下图是过去20多年美国房价在调整过通胀后的走势(Case-Shiller Home Price Index)：\n\n可以看到，自从2014年iBuyer模式创立开始，美国的房价就一直在高速上涨。\n这就满足了黄色小纸条模式赚钱的第二条途径。于是急于通过提高营收来抬高股价的Zillow，就将目光投向了iBuyer市场，在2018年强势入局，开启了自己的iBuyer业务——Zillow Offers。\nZillow也不是空手而来，凭借其多年来积累强大的AI定价技术，直接把行业带上了新高度!\n有趣的是，Zillow入局的最大受益者，莫过于其竞争对手Opendoor了。\n借着Zillow的强大人气，Opendoor于2018年成功融资4亿美金，又在2019年再融3亿，公司估值直接上升到38亿美金，并最终于2020年末成功上市。\n四、猎人成为猎物，资本反被韭菜们割了\n在Zillow入局iBuyer业务的同时，公司的创始人Rich Barton也重新回到CEO的位置，带领公司全力拓展iBuyer业务。\n他们给自己制定了一个激进的目标，要在2024年实现每个月购买5000套美国的物业，并且大量扩招员工。\n这样的扩张，使Zillow的“营业额“大幅增加：在暴雷前的第三季度，Zillow的营业额同比增长超过500%。\n这种增长，导致公司的股价快速飙升，从2020年初到2021年初的，公司的股价从$20多美金，飙升到$208美金，1年翻了10倍!让管理层和股民们迎来了一波又一波的高潮。\n\n而这种“成功”让Zillow公司从上到下都充满了自信。随着COVID-19疫情在美国的肆虐，美国政府实施了前所未有的货币宽松政策，这让美国的房市在疫情后快速上涨，也使得Zillow的iBuyer业务受益匪浅。\n然而，在表面的歌舞升平下，一场前所未有的危机也开始酝酿。\nZillow看家的“本领”就是他们引以为豪的AI定价技术——Zestimate。通过多年的不断进化，这个AI定价技术，甚至可以把估价的误差缩小到5%以内。\n不过随着美国房价的不断疯狂上涨，这个AI模型也出现了问题：很多业内人士和卖家发现Zestimate往往会给出高于合理市场价格的评估，也就是说AI模型在定价上有点“超前了”。\n在2018年之前，当Zestimate出现偏差的时候，地产经纪们往往只是嗤之以鼻，告诉客户要以市场的实际成交为准。而且在房子最后成交后，事实也经常能证明专业的地产经纪的估价比Zestimate更准确。\n但是2018年以后，Zillow进入了iBuyer业务，也就是说，一旦Zestimate给出了估值，那么Zellow Offers就可能出给卖家这个价格的offer。\n这就形成了一个自证预言(self-fulfilling prophecy)：Zestimate的高估值，直接变成了市场成交价格，然后Zillow就会以更高的价格list到市场，继续推高市场价格。\n既然Zillow Offers和类似的Opendoor可以提供更高的价格给卖家，那么很多卖家更愿意选择卖给iBuyer。\n当然，由于Zillow和Opendoor会收取很高昂的服务费(8%-20%)，扣掉这个费用后到卖家手中的钱可能低于传统通过经纪卖房子，所以并不是所有房子都卖给了Zillow和Opendoor。不过，还是有相当多的房子高价卖给了Zillow。\n而随着第三季度美国房地产市场价格的增长放缓，Zillow的问题出现了。\n他们的AI定价模型太超前，高估了市场价格的增长速度，于是他们高价买入的房子，无法售出，最后竟然大部分低于买入价售出。\n要知道，即使他们用买入价原价售出，都要损失掉交易成本这部分，现在还要低于买入价售出，这就造成了巨大的亏损。\n在第三季度，Zillow一共卖出了3032套房屋，而根据财报，Zillow的iBuyer业务第三季度亏损是3.8亿美金。这样算下来，平均每套房子，Zillow亏损了超过12万美金!这是妥妥的资本被韭菜们的反向收割了!\n五、结语\n在11月2日的采访中，Zillow的创始人兼CEO Rich Barton解释说，房地产市场的价格波动比Zillow管理层原先预计的高很多，AI定价因此出了问题，所以公司决定停止Zillow Offers业务，并且裁员25%。\n这么看来，在Zillow公司股价飙涨的时候，从CEO到下面管理层，都过于自信了，他们相信AI可以很好的预测市场，最后竟然自己给自己洗脑了。\n奥斯卡·王尔德曾经说过：爱，始于自我欺骗，终于欺骗他人。而这个故事告诉我们：iBuyer模式，始于欺骗他人，终于自我欺骗。\n\n在Zillow宣布退出iBuyer业务后，市场上也有着各种不同版本的解读：\n有人认为Zillow退出iBuyer业务，预示着房价的反转，可能是这轮地产泡沫被戳破的起点。\n也有人认为没有了强大的竞争对手，Opendoor继续在iBuyer赛道可能走的会更顺利，反而更加看好这个业务。\n而我认为这次事件既表现出来在地产界人类暂时胜过AI，又表现出人类的不理性和贪婪。\n这种暴雷的事情仍将会一次次重演，无论是几年前中国各种O2O概念暴雷，到WeWork上市失败，再到现在的Zillow，这些底层商业逻辑就有问题的生意，就靠着野蛮扩张，迅速增加“营业额”，就可以不断推高估值，玩弄着资本和散户。\n就像黑格尔所说的：人类从历史中学到的唯一的教训，就是没有从历史中吸取到任何教训。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841909393,"gmtCreate":1635865918384,"gmtModify":1635865918384,"author":{"id":"3459583697004121","authorId":"3459583697004121","name":"朱大哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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