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Katecat
2020-04-17
感觉一个趋势正在蕴量！
标普500指数会否再次探底？
Katecat
2020-04-16
$标普500ETF(SPY)$
绿色的成交量这是卖出卖权吗？明天看未平仓量才能知道今天是回补还是买进？
Katecat
2020-03-31
$波音(BA)$
我等你打第二只脚！^_^
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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14:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"标普500指数会否再次探底？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2027756377","media":"金十数据","summary":"总的来说，基本面、技术面的分析都不够有说服力，因为真正主宰市场的，是美联储……","content":"<html><body><p>在周三之前，华尔街的部分策略师认为最坏的时刻已经过去，市场已经触底，即将反弹。<strong>但是昨晚一系列经济数据发布之后，华尔街发现市场竟是一片惨状——工业产出月率、NAHB房产市场指数、零售销售月率以及纽约联储制造业指数均跌落至历史低点。美股低开低走，道指早盘急泻逾600点。</strong></p><p>然而，上周标普500指数录得超过10%的涨幅，让华尔街对市场充满信心。那么一直走在市场最前沿的华尔街分析师们，看到了什么特别的信号呢？</p><p><strong><span>美股现在触底了吗？</span></strong></p><p><strong>标普500指数在上周累涨12.1%，是自1974年10月以来的最高单周涨幅。</strong>虽然这次反弹多少能证明股市正在好转，但是从1974年到2009年的历史数据的来看，<strong><u>10%或以上的周涨幅可能仅仅是触底反弹的第一步。</u></strong>例如2008年次贷危机期间，也出现过类似的反弹，但这仅仅是股市重新探底前的插曲。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>首席技术分析师萨特米尔（Stephen Suttmeier）表示：</p><blockquote><p>“如同2008年10月和11月里的两次涨幅高达10%的反弹一样，标普500指数在最近三周的两次强劲反弹，仅仅是股市探底过程的小插曲。数据显示，2008年次贷危机爆发后，标普500指数直到2009年3月才真正触底。”</p></blockquote><p>同时，美国银行也提醒那些认为市场已经触底的投资者，不要轻举妄动、入场抄底：</p><blockquote><p>“自1928年以来，标普500指数的一共有18次周涨幅达到10%以上的反弹，而上周的涨幅‘仅仅’能排在第8位。<strong>历史经验告诉我们，股市的下跌并没有结束。”</strong></p></blockquote><p>投资者一般认为，出现高达10％的周涨幅之后，股市的9月和12月远期收益会比较可观。<strong>但美银针对16次大反弹的观测结果（其中不少是在大萧条期间）却显示，其中13次大反弹之后股市都出现了下行趋势。</strong>此外，<strong><u>在2020年之前的16次大反弹中，股市在其中10次反弹之后出现两位数的跌幅，仅有3次大反弹之后没有出现下跌。大反弹一周之后的股价平均跌幅和跌幅中值更是分别高达20.35％和18.94％。</u></strong></p><p>当然了，随着美联储、欧洲央行和日本央行等三大央行向市场注入创纪录的近2.8万亿美元流动性，投资者可以憧憬股市出现和以往不同的走势。<strong><u>正如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>集团所说，现在最简单的投资策略，便是跟随美联储行动。</u></strong></p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/b3867a60-7359-4b79-837f-b00c2bd91e4e.png\"/></p><p><span><strong>技术面传递了什么信号？</strong></span></p><p>除了历史规律之外，萨特米尔认为技术分析也可以帮助我们预测接下来的股市走势。他表示：</p><blockquote><p>“<u><strong>当标普500指数开始测试50%斐波那契回调位的时候，该指数会在2800至3027点之间的阻力位出现激烈的多空交锋。</strong></u>”</p></blockquote><p>萨特米尔认为，上周出现自3月底以来的第二个“90%上涨日（90%的股票录得上涨）”，是一个明细的趋势信号，这将推动标普500指数突破2652点阻力位的200周移动均线。<strong>标普500指数下一个需要攻克的难关是2793至2880点阻力区间，即100周移动均线所在区域。</strong>萨特米尔强调：</p><blockquote><p>“标普500指数本周有望在2800至3027点区间获得大量支撑，突破去年第四季度建立的上升三角形态。但想要再往上突破，就要面对巨大的阻力——因为3017点上方，将出现2019年末建仓的大量多头的最佳离场点位。若标普500指数涨至该区间，多头可能选择获利离场，触发大量卖盘。”</p></blockquote><p>不过总的来说，虽然标普500指数面临许多上行阻力，<strong>但现在最重要的问题，还是搞清楚市场会不会重新探底。</strong>对此，萨特米尔表示，如果多头在2800至3027点阻力区间选择抛售股票，标普500指数回吐自3月23日以来所录得的超20%涨幅的可能性，会进一步上升。<strong>至于最好的结果，就是标普500指数在2650点附近的200周均线上方盘整。</strong></p><p><strong>如果股市真的重新探底的话，标普500指数有可能跌至2346-2191点附近的2018年12月和2020年3月低点（较4月13日收盘价下跌15-20%的位置），甚至进一步下跌至2083至1991点附近的近年低点（较4月13日收盘价下跌24-28％）</strong>——即2016年美国总统大选和英国脱欧投票时期的低点。</p><p>最后，萨特米尔再次提醒投资者：</p><blockquote><p>“投资者最需要注意的是，<strong><u>我们目前生活在一个美联储掌控的市场里，基本面、技术面可能都不再重要。</u></strong>因此，如果有人真的完全信赖技术分析，甚至和美联储对着干，下场可能会相当惨烈。”</p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n标普500指数会否再次探底？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-04-16 14:30 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=59017&type=news><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在周三之前，华尔街的部分策略师认为最坏的时刻已经过去，市场已经触底，即将反弹。但是昨晚一系列经济数据发布之后，华尔街发现市场竟是一片惨状——工业产出月率、NAHB房产市场指数、零售销售月率以及纽约联储制造业指数均跌落至历史低点。美股低开低走，道指早盘急泻逾600点。然而，上周标普500指数录得超过10%的涨幅，让华尔街对市场充满信心。那么一直走在市场最前沿的华尔街分析师们，看到了什么特别的信号呢？...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=59017&type=news\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/2d77e1b6-c030-4047-928f-e72e4108a51a.png","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=59017&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2027756377","content_text":"在周三之前，华尔街的部分策略师认为最坏的时刻已经过去，市场已经触底，即将反弹。但是昨晚一系列经济数据发布之后，华尔街发现市场竟是一片惨状——工业产出月率、NAHB房产市场指数、零售销售月率以及纽约联储制造业指数均跌落至历史低点。美股低开低走，道指早盘急泻逾600点。然而，上周标普500指数录得超过10%的涨幅，让华尔街对市场充满信心。那么一直走在市场最前沿的华尔街分析师们，看到了什么特别的信号呢？美股现在触底了吗？标普500指数在上周累涨12.1%，是自1974年10月以来的最高单周涨幅。虽然这次反弹多少能证明股市正在好转，但是从1974年到2009年的历史数据的来看，10%或以上的周涨幅可能仅仅是触底反弹的第一步。例如2008年次贷危机期间，也出现过类似的反弹，但这仅仅是股市重新探底前的插曲。美国银行首席技术分析师萨特米尔（Stephen Suttmeier）表示：“如同2008年10月和11月里的两次涨幅高达10%的反弹一样，标普500指数在最近三周的两次强劲反弹，仅仅是股市探底过程的小插曲。数据显示，2008年次贷危机爆发后，标普500指数直到2009年3月才真正触底。”同时，美国银行也提醒那些认为市场已经触底的投资者，不要轻举妄动、入场抄底：“自1928年以来，标普500指数的一共有18次周涨幅达到10%以上的反弹，而上周的涨幅‘仅仅’能排在第8位。历史经验告诉我们，股市的下跌并没有结束。”投资者一般认为，出现高达10％的周涨幅之后，股市的9月和12月远期收益会比较可观。但美银针对16次大反弹的观测结果（其中不少是在大萧条期间）却显示，其中13次大反弹之后股市都出现了下行趋势。此外，在2020年之前的16次大反弹中，股市在其中10次反弹之后出现两位数的跌幅，仅有3次大反弹之后没有出现下跌。大反弹一周之后的股价平均跌幅和跌幅中值更是分别高达20.35％和18.94％。当然了，随着美联储、欧洲央行和日本央行等三大央行向市场注入创纪录的近2.8万亿美元流动性，投资者可以憧憬股市出现和以往不同的走势。正如贝莱德集团所说，现在最简单的投资策略，便是跟随美联储行动。技术面传递了什么信号？除了历史规律之外，萨特米尔认为技术分析也可以帮助我们预测接下来的股市走势。他表示：“当标普500指数开始测试50%斐波那契回调位的时候，该指数会在2800至3027点之间的阻力位出现激烈的多空交锋。”萨特米尔认为，上周出现自3月底以来的第二个“90%上涨日（90%的股票录得上涨）”，是一个明细的趋势信号，这将推动标普500指数突破2652点阻力位的200周移动均线。标普500指数下一个需要攻克的难关是2793至2880点阻力区间，即100周移动均线所在区域。萨特米尔强调：“标普500指数本周有望在2800至3027点区间获得大量支撑，突破去年第四季度建立的上升三角形态。但想要再往上突破，就要面对巨大的阻力——因为3017点上方，将出现2019年末建仓的大量多头的最佳离场点位。若标普500指数涨至该区间，多头可能选择获利离场，触发大量卖盘。”不过总的来说，虽然标普500指数面临许多上行阻力，但现在最重要的问题，还是搞清楚市场会不会重新探底。对此，萨特米尔表示，如果多头在2800至3027点阻力区间选择抛售股票，标普500指数回吐自3月23日以来所录得的超20%涨幅的可能性，会进一步上升。至于最好的结果，就是标普500指数在2650点附近的200周均线上方盘整。如果股市真的重新探底的话，标普500指数有可能跌至2346-2191点附近的2018年12月和2020年3月低点（较4月13日收盘价下跌15-20%的位置），甚至进一步下跌至2083至1991点附近的近年低点（较4月13日收盘价下跌24-28％）——即2016年美国总统大选和英国脱欧投票时期的低点。最后，萨特米尔再次提醒投资者：“投资者最需要注意的是，我们目前生活在一个美联储掌控的市场里，基本面、技术面可能都不再重要。因此，如果有人真的完全信赖技术分析，甚至和美联储对着干，下场可能会相当惨烈。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":926330057,"gmtCreate":1586972626479,"gmtModify":1704362807918,"author":{"id":"3453720064427436","authorId":"3453720064427436","name":"Katecat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/10c5dc6df2f0ef03f202694c29a1f48c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3453720064427436","authorIdStr":"3453720064427436"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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