贝兼的个人主页 - 老虎社区

贝兼

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IP属地：北京

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2022-07-15

供给有阻碍，需求没变怕什么

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-05-22

这写的哪都不挨哪，你可能不知道特斯拉的市值到底有多大，盈利性和现金流之好都没概念，哪还有那小乐趣去操作股价什么的

全球首富也许被做局猎杀？马斯克弃卒保“车” 为时已晚

2022-05-22

元宇宙？

中办、国办印发《关于推进实施国家文化数字化战略的意见》

2022-05-12

$短期VIX期货ETN(VXX)$恐慌指数没怎么动，说明什么

2022-03-02

‌$爱奇艺(IQ)$‌就说了句计划明年不亏损，就高兴成这样？细品挺悲哀啊……就当庆祝人世间大结局吧

2021-11-25

$RLX科技(RLX)$昨天贪了，没走，今天走不走？

2021-11-23

$RLX科技(RLX)$又是一日游

2021-11-11

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$双十一的交易量到现在也没公布，是太惨？

2021-11-11

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$双十一的热度衰减这么多，为何股价没动？

2021-10-22

$苹果(AAPL)$咋了

2021-10-13

$RLX科技(RLX)$7块跌下来是香港的利空消息，美国的利好消息是不是可以收复失地？

2021-09-15

$RLX科技(RLX)$上下都有大单压着，在几分钱的区间横着，啥意思？

2021-08-10

难怪着急上市

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-01

$滴滴(DIDI)$估计配售的机构都商量好了，到14就别卖了，破发全亏，容易形成恐慌踩踏

2021-07-01

$滴滴(DIDI)$配售没给散户，全是机构，看成交量募集的40亿都卖光了

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12:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"全球首富也许被做局猎杀？马斯克弃卒保“车” 为时已晚","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109790779","media":"泷韬全球宏观","summary":"我们在4/28警告，Elon Musk涉嫌操纵Tesla（故意放利好）和Twitter股价（违反二级市场并购条款），用股权抵押融资并购，给自己埋下了一颗金融核弹，可能导致其像Bill Hwang一样爆","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>我们在4/28警告，Elon Musk涉嫌操纵Tesla（故意放利好）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a>股价（违反二级市场并购条款），用股权抵押融资并购，给自己埋下了一颗金融核弹，可能导致其像Bill Hwang一样爆仓。</p><p>我们归纳的风险：</p><ol><li><p>涉嫌操纵股票，导致波动率加大；</p></li><li><p>TWITTER股东诉讼MUSK未按证券法举牌；</p></li><li><p>MS抵押贷款的补仓线40%；</p></li><li><p>TSLA内部对高管规定的25%补仓线，可能加剧流动性风险；</p></li><li><p>MS和TSLA抵押贷款之间的15%差别，可能加剧流动性风险；</p></li><li><p>TWITTER的经营风险可能迫使MUSK筹集资金；</p></li><li><p>贷款方对冲来自股价的敞口暴露的风险。</p></li></ol><p><b>一、并购动机 = 操纵股价，套利</b></p><p>首先，如我们上次猜测，Musk这次并购很可能是为了操纵股价而套利，类似当年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>在2012年溢价全面私有化港股阿里巴巴网络有限公司，等到2017年再重新上市，从而实现巨额套利。虽然当初有溢价，但因为管理层知道与企业未来基本面相关的内幕消息，所以其实是廉价收购。</p><p>这次Musk的方案是，私有化Twitter以后，对企业和政/府用户开始收费。为未来更高价再次IPO做好准备。所以不要以为为他真的是人类灵魂工程师，为了所谓的言、论、自、由而战，他是为了利益，就像他以前操纵Tesla和MEME stocks, DogeCoin股价一样。只不过这次更加隐蔽，吃相没那么难看。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62c991095e162a09cad0b552764551a5\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>可惜，<b>聪明反被聪明误，不作死不会死</b>。</p><p>—— 其后，TSLA股价从宣布收购起</p><p><b>至5/13，</b></p><p><b>从4/4第一次宣布收购，最大跌幅37.3%</b></p><p><b>从4/25宣布用股权质押方案起，最大跌幅31.8%</b>。</p><p><b>即使从后者算，其跌幅已经超过TESLA 25%内部补仓线</b>。</p><p>—— 当然，由于我们不知道抵押贷款合同从何时正式生效，所以在计算这些阈值会有误差。</p><p>——但是，从Musk最近一周的动作，我们明显观察到他的捉襟见肘。</p><p><b>二、5/2 Musk推出Twitter优先股融资计划</b></p><p>据Bloomberg和Reuters, Musk在5月初和PE基金Apollo和Ares商议，通过发行价值60亿美金的Twitter优先股，来降低收购成本。由此，我们看出，Musk已经嗅到自己的金融危机。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e819d7c525ad8010f3646842be7259fa\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The billionaire’s advisers, led byMorgan Stanley, have begun soliciting interest from potential investors for as much as $6 billion in preferred equity financing, the sources said, asking not to be named discussing a private transaction.</p><p>—— Bloomberg 5/2</p><p>The new financing, which could come in the form of preferred or common equity, could reduce the $21 billion cash contribution that Musk has committed to the deal as well as a margin loan he secured against his Tesla shares, the sources said.</p><p>The banks that agreed last month to provide $13 billion in loans based on Twitter&#39;s business balked at offering more debt for Musk&#39;s acquisition given the San Francisco-based company&#39;s limited cash flow, Reuters reported last month.read more</p><p>Musk has also pledged some of his Tesla shares to banks to arrange a $12.5 billion margin loan to help fund the deal. He may seek to trim the size of the margin loan based on the new investor interest in the deal financing, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the sources said.</p><p>Major investors such as private equity firms, hedge funds and high net-worth individuals are in talks with Musk about providing preferred equity financing for the acquisition, the sources said. Preferred equity would pay a fixed dividend from Twitter, in the same way that a bond or a loan pays regular interest but would appreciate in line with the equity value of the company.</p><p>Apollo Global Management Inc(APO.N) and Ares Management Corp(ARES.N) are among the private equity firms that have been in talks about providing the financing, the sources added.</p><p>—— Reuters 5/3</p><p><b>三、5/13, 暂停收购，埋怨僵尸粉</b></p><p>5/13，Musk突然在Twitter宣布暂停收购Twitter，声称要彻查Twitter的僵尸粉，彷佛假如僵尸粉超过5%的比例，就要借坡下驴，放弃收购或压低价格。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a0c6319559ea3997759b4813c655b0f\" tg-width=\"586\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>但是，Musk之前真的不知道Twitter有僵尸粉吗？<b>在4/26，他亲口在Twitter上发言，“让Twitter更伟大...通过打败僵尸粉”</b>。他既然要说让Twitter更伟大了，难道如此宏伟的目标只是基于5%的边际效应？我看绝非如此：有点数学或企业管理常识的人，都不会是这个小于5%的潜台词。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/115818af01e07657d1f52c8b637a8860\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>由此我们可以看到：</p><ol><li><p><b>Musk的出尔反尔，而且如此大的并购消息不是通过正规金融媒体渠道发布，而是通过Twitter，颇有川建国同志治国之风；</b></p></li><li><p><b>如此行径，实在无法避免内幕交易之嫌。假如他的亲友提前做多Tesla/做空Twitter, 当天可以盈利15.4%。</b></p></li></ol><p>消息一出，Twitter跌9.7%，Tesla股票反弹5.7% VS NASDAQ100 +3.7% —— 这是个很不正常的现象，因为Tesla的股价近5年，和NASDAQ的beta接近于2，正常来说如此大的利好该反弹7-10%才对。<b>仅仅反弹5.7%，证明：</b></p><ol><li><p><b>投资者已经对Tesla或Musk失去信任度，为估值减分；</b></p></li><li><p><b>或者认为该收购无法取消。</b></p></li></ol><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e928090c3446b17f67100ca36ec2153\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>四、5/17，减持SpaceX谣言</b></p><p>5/17，再传谣言，SpaceX要向员工以70USD/股减持股票，使得公司估值达到1250亿USD。据说Musk持有其44%股份（As of August last year Musk owned almost 44% of SpaceX, according to a Federal Communications Commission filing reported bytech blog WCCF Tech.）</p><p>这个谣言更加加固了Musk已经处于需要补仓的金融困境。</p><p>SpaceX is planning to sell shares to employees, The New York Post and Bloomberg report.</p><p>SpaceX plans to sell at $70 a share, which would value the company at $125 billion.</p><p>This comes as CEO Elon Musk is reportedly seeking new financing for his Twitter takeover.</p><p>Elon Musk&#39;s SpaceX is planning to sell shares to employees,The New York Post andBloomberg report.</p><p>Sources told The Post and Bloomberg SpaceX is planning to sell employee stock at $70 a share. The Post reported the sale, which would value the company at $125 billion, would start on Tuesday.</p><p>https://news.yahoo.com/spacex-selling-shares-125-billion-102904936.html</p><p><b>五、</b>5/19，再传噩耗：<b>标准普尔道琼斯指数公司已将Tesla从其标普500ESG指数中删除；称关注Tesla处理与自动驾驶有关的车祸后的调查情况</b>。</p><p>此举可谓雪上加霜，大概率会导致ESG <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a>基金投资者，被迫减持Tesla股票。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee999c65fd65158ff1df887f7138167\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>六、5/20，再传性侵丑闻</b></p><p>据爆料，Musk性侵SpaceX女员工，并支付封口费。这个新闻可能会再次刺激ESG基金减持Tesla。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f3defbd4f1cc071bb83b6ff91162bb2\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>七、全球首富也许被(民主党或华尔街)做局？</b></p><p>注意，</p><p>TSLA股价从宣布收购起</p><p><b>至5/13，</b></p><p><b>从4/4第一次宣布收购，最大跌幅37.3%</b></p><p><b>从4/25宣布用股权质押方案起，最大跌幅31.8%</b>。</p><p><b>即使从后者算，其跌幅已经超过TESLA 25%内部补仓线</b>。</p><p>而本周，各种与Musk和Tesla相关的丑闻利空如此频繁地 —— 配合Musk的补仓线被轰炸 —— 而出现，我们不得不怀疑，也有有人在暗中做局，猎杀Musk。</p><p>我们注意到，在Musk签的股权抵押贷款合同里有补充条款，限定他在某些情况下必须全额缴款：其中两条是：<b>一旦发生</b></p><ul><li><p><b>对借款人付款的判决或命令</b></p></li><li><p><b>任何政府对借款人的，合理预期会产生重大不利影响的调查，</b></p></li></ul><p><b>任何以上事件发生，以及随后条款的执行，都将终止Musk的保证金贷款协议，全部 125 亿美元将必须立即支付。</b></p><p><b>这次空乘事件会不会引发法制机关介入呢？</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1cd6600b67edf6f380dbe05a56ab8f7\" tg-width=\"735\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>我们之所以怀疑华尔街介入，是因为如我们前文分析，Tesla股票有巨大估值泡沫，而股权抵押贷款把系统性风险与股票泡沫打通，千载难逢的割韭菜机会 —— 联想 Bill Hwang 去年大概率被投行或相关机构割韭菜。</p><p>但是，我们也不能排除这是一场Biden、民主党和Musk的大战。二者仇恨由来已久。今年一月，Biden为了拉动电动车投资，接见GM和Ford CEOs，单单没有电动车一号网红Tesla CEO。Musk在Twitter公开骂Biden是别人的傀儡，欺骗美国大众。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be89824bece144e40a481152c58f72ef\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"968\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb58831c2c9e38b5353cb7d5a08a875b\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"243\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5de04dbb432e818feeaa047f8ff254\" tg-width=\"774\" tg-height=\"935\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>5/19, Musk再次在Twitter公开批评民主党制造分裂和仇恨，批评民主党作弊，声称要支持共和党。</p><p>我虽然不喜欢Musk操纵金融市场和作秀，但这几句话深表同意 —— 看看Biden上台后，全球分裂，欧洲陷入战火，准三次世界大战发生的概率在上升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c651863f4980f85e14520d984baaf9b\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e334dbb02ac7616c91429b3f7aecfe5\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"89\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c5216633ce01cbb650b69bc58d753c\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>所以，本周的关于Tesla和Musk的丑闻，我们无法排除民主党在背后操纵：</p><p>Biden和民主党为了打击俄罗斯，不惜把美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">全民</a>的民生，股市，下届美国总统大选，美国原油战略储备，乌克兰百姓的生命，欧洲的和平和通胀，一起押在牌桌上；</p><p>那么，即使Tesla的权重在SP500里极其重要，牵一发而动全身，Biden和民主党会不会为了打压Musk，而在所不惜呢？</p><p><b>八、Musk可以停止收购Twitter，舍卒保车，全身而退？</b></p><p>这个问题，具体需要看Musk和Twitter, 投行签署的并购条款。我们拿不到一手的完整资料，无法判断。但是根据Bloomberg记者Matt Levine的信，大概率无法取消 —— 因为</p><ul><li><p>Musk签的是一份&#34;盲合同&#34;，</p></li><li><p>他必须尽全力去履行合同义务，促使交易完成；他不能暂停。</p></li><li><p>即使证明Twitter有5%僵尸粉，Musk也无法脱身。虽然Twitter 在一份证券文件中承认，多年来它（略微）高估了每日活跃用户。合并协议包含一项条款，如果 Twitter 的证券文件有误，马斯克可以离开——这 5% 的数字在其证券文件中——但前提是该错误会对公司产生“重大不利影响”。（参见第 4.6(a) 和 7.2(b) 节。）这是一个令人难以置信的高标准：特拉华州法院几乎从未找到“重大不利影响”。法院表示，“重大不利影响”必须是“以持续时间显著的方式严重威胁目标的整体盈利潜力”的东西；根据经验，“重大不利影响”要求长期盈利能力下降 40%。如果结果是 6% 或 20% 或 50% 的 Twitter 帐户是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>，那将是令人尴尬的，甚至可能会减少 Twitter 未来的广告收入，但它会被定性为“重大不利影响” 吗？很难。</p></li><li><p>“待定细节支持计算”披露——“虚假或垃圾邮件账户的平均值……仅占 Twitter 可货币化每日活跃用户的不到 5%——这句话多年来一直在 Twitter 的证券文件中警告，“在做出这一决定时，我们做出了重大判断，因此我们对虚假或垃圾账户的估计可能无法准确反映此类账户的实际数量，虚假或垃圾账户的实际数量可能高于我们的估计。” 马斯克在提出收购 Twitter 之前大概率肯定读到过，所以他现在很难以此为借口拒绝收购。</p></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5e5933de901221acf8509dd5854aede\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"1001\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>假如这位记者的推理成立的话，Musk看来很难脱身。那么他将继续陷入股票下跌 —— 流动性收缩的恶性循环的漩涡。</p><p><b>所谓聪明反被聪明误，不作死不会死。侥幸依赖股市泡沫成为全球首富，躲过2021年成长股下跌的Elon Musk，很可能是下一个Bill Hwang。</b></p><p><b>九、报应</b></p><p>Musk操纵股价，号召散户用期权逼空，导致很多散户死无葬身之地。我们之前写过系列文章，不再赘述。</p><p>我们去年预测过，Musk号召逼空的MEME stocks和要送上月球的DogeCoin大概率会长期阴跌，跌回起点，甚至变成废纸 —— 如今大部分已经验证。</p><p>我们看他操纵的DogeCoin，在他喊话前，明显有人在0.036-0.048之间建仓收集筹码，然后他出来喊话，DogeCoin火箭上天冲到0.725，比建仓区升幅达13.5倍，然后长期阴跌，目前0.08，离最高价跌幅近90%，想要解套，需要一波9倍以上的牛市。这是一套标准的，在A股常见的游资坐庄的模式。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd8d787898a192f148c969bf4cf700a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>可惜，天真的韭菜们还给Musk写了不少赞歌。此处摘录两首，</p><p>第一首，歌手要把DogeCoin送上1USD；</p><p>第二首，一个绿色能源的拥护者，刚被Robinhood在Elon Musk号召的期权逼空大潮里割韭菜，付不起房租，把仅有的余钱买入Dogecoin，希望Elon Musk送她上天，并给她在登月留一席之地...</p><p>我是70后，虽然没经历过文革，但多少感受过余孽，所以对日月神教式的洗脑+割韭菜模式天生反感，也敏感。所以去年我们连续撰文，警告Elon Musk的庞氏骗局。</p><blockquote>Musk 为了个人恩怨，偏见，复仇，鼓动群众，利用他们对贫富差距的不满（他本人就是央行放水的资产泡沫导致贫富差距扩大的最大的受益者，全地球最大，没有之一），利用他们一夜暴富的心理，买庞氏骗局 —— 目的是逼空，而这些空头大多数是做空资产泡沫，做空庞氏骗局的人 —— 完全不顾弱势群体的实际经济利益。”  “大众对Musk的崇拜，是奴性，缺乏独立思考的体现，甚至包含拜金主义在里面 ——  假如他们的股票没有暴涨，公司濒临破产，还会有这么多拥趸吗？... 这个事件，本质就像靠民主投票上台的纳粹煽动德国人屠杀犹太人，是人类的悲哀。尤其希望每个本质善良的普通人，低收入的人，多点独立思考，不要被政客、权谋家、利益集团玩弄。</blockquote><blockquote>这样一个</blockquote><blockquote>公众可以信任吗？</blockquote><blockquote>我并不反对Musk合法赚钱，</blockquote><blockquote>我只反对众多媒体把他塑造成人类的希望或救星。</blockquote><blockquote>Musk根本不是什么钢铁侠</blockquote><blockquote>—— 侠，是代表弱者，挑战暴力、维护公众正义的人。</blockquote><blockquote>他的事迹大多为了个人私利，割弱小百姓韭菜，离“侠”太远。</blockquote><ul><li><p>Tsla股票也许是下一个即将破裂的资产泡沫 (修订版) | 泷韬全球宏观</p></li><li><p>Elon Musk如果当权，对人类将是灾难GME逼空事件的赢家，输家，和政客Chamath Palihapitiya和Elon Musk都是华尔街的既得利益者驳Chamath Palihapitiya在CNBC的发言</p></li></ul><p><b>所谓聪明反被聪明误，不作死不会死。侥幸依赖股市泡沫成为全球首富，躲过2021年成长股下跌的Elon Musk，很可能是下一个Bill Hwang。</b></p><p>不过虽然我反感Musk为了个人私利，操纵大众思想的类似纳粹的行为，但假如是民主党给他做局，我们不得不慨叹在Deep State的政客面前，作为全球首富是多么渺小和悲哀。在对是世界的操纵和伤害，以及面具的厚度层面，Musk还远远不及。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584520488112","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>全球首富也许被做局猎杀？马斯克弃卒保“车” 为时已晚</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n全球首富也许被做局猎杀？马斯克弃卒保“车” 为时已晚\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-21 12:08 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RnCE4lSJCFNvjKRTofy8wg><strong>泷韬全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>我们在4/28警告，Elon Musk涉嫌操纵Tesla（故意放利好）和Twitter股价（违反二级市场并购条款），用股权抵押融资并购，给自己埋下了一颗金融核弹，可能导致其像Bill Hwang一样爆仓。我们归纳的风险：涉嫌操纵股票，导致波动率加大；TWITTER股东诉讼MUSK未按证券法举牌；MS抵押贷款的补仓线40%；TSLA内部对高管规定的25%补仓线，可能加剧流动性风险；MS和TSLA抵押...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RnCE4lSJCFNvjKRTofy8wg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75856ca600aa7110c9cdf0d842b9cef3","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RnCE4lSJCFNvjKRTofy8wg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109790779","content_text":"我们在4/28警告，Elon Musk涉嫌操纵Tesla（故意放利好）和Twitter股价（违反二级市场并购条款），用股权抵押融资并购，给自己埋下了一颗金融核弹，可能导致其像Bill Hwang一样爆仓。我们归纳的风险：涉嫌操纵股票，导致波动率加大；TWITTER股东诉讼MUSK未按证券法举牌；MS抵押贷款的补仓线40%；TSLA内部对高管规定的25%补仓线，可能加剧流动性风险；MS和TSLA抵押贷款之间的15%差别，可能加剧流动性风险；TWITTER的经营风险可能迫使MUSK筹集资金；贷款方对冲来自股价的敞口暴露的风险。一、并购动机 = 操纵股价，套利首先，如我们上次猜测，Musk这次并购很可能是为了操纵股价而套利，类似当年阿里巴巴在2012年溢价全面私有化港股阿里巴巴网络有限公司，等到2017年再重新上市，从而实现巨额套利。虽然当初有溢价，但因为管理层知道与企业未来基本面相关的内幕消息，所以其实是廉价收购。这次Musk的方案是，私有化Twitter以后，对企业和政/府用户开始收费。为未来更高价再次IPO做好准备。所以不要以为为他真的是人类灵魂工程师，为了所谓的言、论、自、由而战，他是为了利益，就像他以前操纵Tesla和MEME stocks, DogeCoin股价一样。只不过这次更加隐蔽，吃相没那么难看。可惜，聪明反被聪明误，不作死不会死。—— 其后，TSLA股价从宣布收购起至5/13，从4/4第一次宣布收购，最大跌幅37.3%从4/25宣布用股权质押方案起，最大跌幅31.8%。即使从后者算，其跌幅已经超过TESLA 25%内部补仓线。—— 当然，由于我们不知道抵押贷款合同从何时正式生效，所以在计算这些阈值会有误差。——但是，从Musk最近一周的动作，我们明显观察到他的捉襟见肘。二、5/2 Musk推出Twitter优先股融资计划据Bloomberg和Reuters, Musk在5月初和PE基金Apollo和Ares商议，通过发行价值60亿美金的Twitter优先股，来降低收购成本。由此，我们看出，Musk已经嗅到自己的金融危机。The billionaire’s advisers, led byMorgan Stanley, have begun soliciting interest from potential investors for as much as $6 billion in preferred equity financing, the sources said, asking not to be named discussing a private transaction.—— Bloomberg 5/2The new financing, which could come in the form of preferred or common equity, could reduce the $21 billion cash contribution that Musk has committed to the deal as well as a margin loan he secured against his Tesla shares, the sources said.The banks that agreed last month to provide $13 billion in loans based on Twitter's business balked at offering more debt for Musk's acquisition given the San Francisco-based company's limited cash flow, Reuters reported last month.read moreMusk has also pledged some of his Tesla shares to banks to arrange a $12.5 billion margin loan to help fund the deal. He may seek to trim the size of the margin loan based on the new investor interest in the deal financing, one of the sources said.Major investors such as private equity firms, hedge funds and high net-worth individuals are in talks with Musk about providing preferred equity financing for the acquisition, the sources said. Preferred equity would pay a fixed dividend from Twitter, in the same way that a bond or a loan pays regular interest but would appreciate in line with the equity value of the company.Apollo Global Management Inc(APO.N) and Ares Management Corp(ARES.N) are among the private equity firms that have been in talks about providing the financing, the sources added.—— Reuters 5/3三、5/13, 暂停收购，埋怨僵尸粉5/13，Musk突然在Twitter宣布暂停收购Twitter，声称要彻查Twitter的僵尸粉，彷佛假如僵尸粉超过5%的比例，就要借坡下驴，放弃收购或压低价格。但是，Musk之前真的不知道Twitter有僵尸粉吗？在4/26，他亲口在Twitter上发言，“让Twitter更伟大...通过打败僵尸粉”。他既然要说让Twitter更伟大了，难道如此宏伟的目标只是基于5%的边际效应？我看绝非如此：有点数学或企业管理常识的人，都不会是这个小于5%的潜台词。由此我们可以看到：Musk的出尔反尔，而且如此大的并购消息不是通过正规金融媒体渠道发布，而是通过Twitter，颇有川建国同志治国之风；如此行径，实在无法避免内幕交易之嫌。假如他的亲友提前做多Tesla/做空Twitter, 当天可以盈利15.4%。消息一出，Twitter跌9.7%，Tesla股票反弹5.7% VS NASDAQ100 +3.7% —— 这是个很不正常的现象，因为Tesla的股价近5年，和NASDAQ的beta接近于2，正常来说如此大的利好该反弹7-10%才对。仅仅反弹5.7%，证明：投资者已经对Tesla或Musk失去信任度，为估值减分；或者认为该收购无法取消。四、5/17，减持SpaceX谣言5/17，再传谣言，SpaceX要向员工以70USD/股减持股票，使得公司估值达到1250亿USD。据说Musk持有其44%股份（As of August last year Musk owned almost 44% of SpaceX, according to a Federal Communications Commission filing reported bytech blog WCCF Tech.）这个谣言更加加固了Musk已经处于需要补仓的金融困境。SpaceX is planning to sell shares to employees, The New York Post and Bloomberg report.SpaceX plans to sell at $70 a share, which would value the company at $125 billion.This comes as CEO Elon Musk is reportedly seeking new financing for his Twitter takeover.Elon Musk's SpaceX is planning to sell shares to employees,The New York Post andBloomberg report.Sources told The Post and Bloomberg SpaceX is planning to sell employee stock at $70 a share. The Post reported the sale, which would value the company at $125 billion, would start on Tuesday.https://news.yahoo.com/spacex-selling-shares-125-billion-102904936.html五、5/19，再传噩耗：标准普尔道琼斯指数公司已将Tesla从其标普500ESG指数中删除；称关注Tesla处理与自动驾驶有关的车祸后的调查情况。此举可谓雪上加霜，大概率会导致ESG Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF基金投资者，被迫减持Tesla股票。六、5/20，再传性侵丑闻据爆料，Musk性侵SpaceX女员工，并支付封口费。这个新闻可能会再次刺激ESG基金减持Tesla。七、全球首富也许被(民主党或华尔街)做局？注意，TSLA股价从宣布收购起至5/13，从4/4第一次宣布收购，最大跌幅37.3%从4/25宣布用股权质押方案起，最大跌幅31.8%。即使从后者算，其跌幅已经超过TESLA 25%内部补仓线。而本周，各种与Musk和Tesla相关的丑闻利空如此频繁地 —— 配合Musk的补仓线被轰炸 —— 而出现，我们不得不怀疑，也有有人在暗中做局，猎杀Musk。我们注意到，在Musk签的股权抵押贷款合同里有补充条款，限定他在某些情况下必须全额缴款：其中两条是：一旦发生对借款人付款的判决或命令任何政府对借款人的，合理预期会产生重大不利影响的调查，任何以上事件发生，以及随后条款的执行，都将终止Musk的保证金贷款协议，全部 125 亿美元将必须立即支付。这次空乘事件会不会引发法制机关介入呢？我们之所以怀疑华尔街介入，是因为如我们前文分析，Tesla股票有巨大估值泡沫，而股权抵押贷款把系统性风险与股票泡沫打通，千载难逢的割韭菜机会 —— 联想 Bill Hwang 去年大概率被投行或相关机构割韭菜。但是，我们也不能排除这是一场Biden、民主党和Musk的大战。二者仇恨由来已久。今年一月，Biden为了拉动电动车投资，接见GM和Ford CEOs，单单没有电动车一号网红Tesla CEO。Musk在Twitter公开骂Biden是别人的傀儡，欺骗美国大众。5/19, Musk再次在Twitter公开批评民主党制造分裂和仇恨，批评民主党作弊，声称要支持共和党。我虽然不喜欢Musk操纵金融市场和作秀，但这几句话深表同意 —— 看看Biden上台后，全球分裂，欧洲陷入战火，准三次世界大战发生的概率在上升。所以，本周的关于Tesla和Musk的丑闻，我们无法排除民主党在背后操纵：Biden和民主党为了打击俄罗斯，不惜把美国全民的民生，股市，下届美国总统大选，美国原油战略储备，乌克兰百姓的生命，欧洲的和平和通胀，一起押在牌桌上；那么，即使Tesla的权重在SP500里极其重要，牵一发而动全身，Biden和民主党会不会为了打压Musk，而在所不惜呢？八、Musk可以停止收购Twitter，舍卒保车，全身而退？这个问题，具体需要看Musk和Twitter, 投行签署的并购条款。我们拿不到一手的完整资料，无法判断。但是根据Bloomberg记者Matt Levine的信，大概率无法取消 —— 因为Musk签的是一份\"盲合同\"，他必须尽全力去履行合同义务，促使交易完成；他不能暂停。即使证明Twitter有5%僵尸粉，Musk也无法脱身。虽然Twitter 在一份证券文件中承认，多年来它（略微）高估了每日活跃用户。合并协议包含一项条款，如果 Twitter 的证券文件有误，马斯克可以离开——这 5% 的数字在其证券文件中——但前提是该错误会对公司产生“重大不利影响”。（参见第 4.6(a) 和 7.2(b) 节。）这是一个令人难以置信的高标准：特拉华州法院几乎从未找到“重大不利影响”。法院表示，“重大不利影响”必须是“以持续时间显著的方式严重威胁目标的整体盈利潜力”的东西；根据经验，“重大不利影响”要求长期盈利能力下降 40%。如果结果是 6% 或 20% 或 50% 的 Twitter 帐户是机器人，那将是令人尴尬的，甚至可能会减少 Twitter 未来的广告收入，但它会被定性为“重大不利影响” 吗？很难。“待定细节支持计算”披露——“虚假或垃圾邮件账户的平均值……仅占 Twitter 可货币化每日活跃用户的不到 5%——这句话多年来一直在 Twitter 的证券文件中警告，“在做出这一决定时，我们做出了重大判断，因此我们对虚假或垃圾账户的估计可能无法准确反映此类账户的实际数量，虚假或垃圾账户的实际数量可能高于我们的估计。” 马斯克在提出收购 Twitter 之前大概率肯定读到过，所以他现在很难以此为借口拒绝收购。假如这位记者的推理成立的话，Musk看来很难脱身。那么他将继续陷入股票下跌 —— 流动性收缩的恶性循环的漩涡。所谓聪明反被聪明误，不作死不会死。侥幸依赖股市泡沫成为全球首富，躲过2021年成长股下跌的Elon Musk，很可能是下一个Bill Hwang。九、报应Musk操纵股价，号召散户用期权逼空，导致很多散户死无葬身之地。我们之前写过系列文章，不再赘述。我们去年预测过，Musk号召逼空的MEME stocks和要送上月球的DogeCoin大概率会长期阴跌，跌回起点，甚至变成废纸 —— 如今大部分已经验证。我们看他操纵的DogeCoin，在他喊话前，明显有人在0.036-0.048之间建仓收集筹码，然后他出来喊话，DogeCoin火箭上天冲到0.725，比建仓区升幅达13.5倍，然后长期阴跌，目前0.08，离最高价跌幅近90%，想要解套，需要一波9倍以上的牛市。这是一套标准的，在A股常见的游资坐庄的模式。可惜，天真的韭菜们还给Musk写了不少赞歌。此处摘录两首，第一首，歌手要把DogeCoin送上1USD；第二首，一个绿色能源的拥护者，刚被Robinhood在Elon Musk号召的期权逼空大潮里割韭菜，付不起房租，把仅有的余钱买入Dogecoin，希望Elon Musk送她上天，并给她在登月留一席之地...我是70后，虽然没经历过文革，但多少感受过余孽，所以对日月神教式的洗脑+割韭菜模式天生反感，也敏感。所以去年我们连续撰文，警告Elon Musk的庞氏骗局。Musk 为了个人恩怨，偏见，复仇，鼓动群众，利用他们对贫富差距的不满（他本人就是央行放水的资产泡沫导致贫富差距扩大的最大的受益者，全地球最大，没有之一），利用他们一夜暴富的心理，买庞氏骗局 —— 目的是逼空，而这些空头大多数是做空资产泡沫，做空庞氏骗局的人 —— 完全不顾弱势群体的实际经济利益。”  “大众对Musk的崇拜，是奴性，缺乏独立思考的体现，甚至包含拜金主义在里面 ——  假如他们的股票没有暴涨，公司濒临破产，还会有这么多拥趸吗？... 这个事件，本质就像靠民主投票上台的纳粹煽动德国人屠杀犹太人，是人类的悲哀。尤其希望每个本质善良的普通人，低收入的人，多点独立思考，不要被政客、权谋家、利益集团玩弄。这样一个公众可以信任吗？我并不反对Musk合法赚钱，我只反对众多媒体把他塑造成人类的希望或救星。Musk根本不是什么钢铁侠—— 侠，是代表弱者，挑战暴力、维护公众正义的人。他的事迹大多为了个人私利，割弱小百姓韭菜，离“侠”太远。Tsla股票也许是下一个即将破裂的资产泡沫 (修订版) | 泷韬全球宏观Elon Musk如果当权，对人类将是灾难GME逼空事件的赢家，输家，和政客Chamath Palihapitiya和Elon Musk都是华尔街的既得利益者驳Chamath Palihapitiya在CNBC的发言所谓聪明反被聪明误，不作死不会死。侥幸依赖股市泡沫成为全球首富，躲过2021年成长股下跌的Elon Musk，很可能是下一个Bill Hwang。不过虽然我反感Musk为了个人私利，操纵大众思想的类似纳粹的行为，但假如是民主党给他做局，我们不得不慨叹在Deep State的政客面前，作为全球首富是多么渺小和悲哀。在对是世界的操纵和伤害，以及面具的厚度层面，Musk还远远不及。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":615762492,"gmtCreate":1653211532916,"gmtModify":1653211532916,"author":{"id":"3452481063235747","authorId":"3452481063235747","name":"贝兼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4deabb898dab8343d8b2312a02923975","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3452481063235747","idStr":"3452481063235747"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"元宇宙？","listText":"元宇宙？","text":"元宇宙？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/615762492","repostId":"1168811044","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168811044","pubTimestamp":1653211048,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168811044?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-22 17:17","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"中办、国办印发《关于推进实施国家文化数字化战略的意见》","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168811044","media":"央视新闻","summary":"5月22日，近日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发了《关于推进实施国家文化数字化战略的意见》（以下简称《意见》），并发出通知，要求各地区各部门结合实际认真贯彻落实。《意见》明确，到“十四五”时期末，基","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>5月22日，近日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发了《关于推进实施国家文化数字化战略的意见》（以下简称《意见》），并发出通知，要求各地区各部门结合实际认真贯彻落实。</p><p>《意见》明确，到“十四五”时期末，基本建成文化数字化基础设施和服务平台，形成线上线下融合互动、立体覆盖的文化服务供给体系。到2035年，建成物理分布、逻辑关联、快速链接、高效搜索、全面共享、重点集成的国家文化大数据体系，中华文化全景呈现，中华文化数字化成果全民共享。</p><p>《意见》提出了8项重点任务。一是统筹利用文化领域已建或在建数字化工程和数据库所形成的成果，关联形成中华文化数据库。二是夯实文化数字化基础设施，依托现有有线电视网络设施、广电5G网络和互联互通平台，形成国家文化专网。三是鼓励多元主体依托国家文化专网，共同搭建文化数据服务平台。四是鼓励和支持各类文化机构接入国家文化专网，利用文化数据服务平台，探索数字化转型升级的有效途径。五是发展数字化文化消费新场景，大力发展线上线下一体化、在线在场相结合的数字化文化新体验。六是统筹推进国家文化大数据体系、全国智慧图书馆体系和公共文化云建设，增强公共文化数字内容的供给能力，提升公共文化服务数字化水平。七是加快文化产业数字化布局，在文化数据采集、加工、交易、分发、呈现等领域，培育一批新型文化企业，引领文化产业数字化建设方向。八是构建文化数字化治理体系，完善文化市场综合执法体制，强化文化数据要素市场交易监管。</p><p>《意见》要求，在数据采集加工、交易分发、传输存储及数据治理等环节，制定文化数据安全标准，强化中华文化数据库数据入库标准，构建完善的文化数据安全监管体系，完善文化资源数据和文化数字内容的产权保护措施。加快文化数字化建设标准研究制定，健全文化资源数据分享动力机制，研究制定扶持文化数字化建设的产业政策，落实和完善财政支持政策，在文化数字化建设领域布局国家技术创新中心、全国重点实验室等国家科技创新基地，支持符合科创属性的数字化文化企业在科创板上市融资，推进文化数字化相关学科专业建设，用好产教融合平台。</p><p>《意见》强调，各地要把推进实施国家文化数字化战略列入重要议事日程，因地制宜制定具体实施方案，相关部门要细化政策措施。各地区各有关部门要加强对《意见》实施情况的跟踪分析和协调指导，注重效果评估。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1568181200495","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-22 17:17 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com/snow-book/index.html?item_id=8585196893091802587&channelId=1119&toc_style_id=feeds_default&module=ccnews%3A%2F%2Fappclient%2Fpage%2Ffeeds%2Fdetail%3Furl%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fcontent-static.cctvnews.cctv.com%252Fsnow-book%252Findex.html%253Fitem_id%253D8585196893091802587%2526channelId%253D1119%2526toc_style_id%253Dfeeds_default><strong>央视新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>5月22日，近日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发了《关于推进实施国家文化数字化战略的意见》（以下简称《意见》），并发出通知，要求各地区各部门结合实际认真贯彻落实。《意见》明确，到“十四五”时期末，基本建成文化数字化基础设施和服务平台，形成线上线下融合互动、立体覆盖的文化服务供给体系。到2035年，建成物理分布、逻辑关联、快速链接、高效搜索、全面共享、重点集成的国家文化大数据体系，中华文化全景呈现...</p>\n\n<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">$RLX科技(RLX)$</a>7块跌下来是香港的利空消息，美国的利好消息是不是可以收复失地？","text":"$RLX科技(RLX)$7块跌下来是香港的利空消息，美国的利好消息是不是可以收复失地？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822205939","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3960,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3568619230200761","authorId":"3568619230200761","name":"买股需要信仰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8656c823d236bc45b8bee9764fbc72d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3568619230200761","idStr":"3568619230200761"},"content":"rlx没有把美国的销售业绩纳入，这个股票只是针对中国的业绩，美国利好跟他没关系，在骗而已","text":"rlx没有把美国的销售业绩纳入，这个股票只是针对中国的业绩，美国利好跟他没关系，在骗而已","html":"rlx没有把美国的销售业绩纳入，这个股票只是针对中国的业绩，美国利好跟他没关系，在骗而已"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":882933977,"gmtCreate":1631638283299,"gmtModify":1631638283299,"author":{"id":"3452481063235747","authorId":"3452481063235747","name":"贝兼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4deabb898dab8343d8b2312a02923975","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3452481063235747","idStr":"3452481063235747"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>配售没给散户，全是机构，看成交量募集的40亿都卖光了","text":"$滴滴(DIDI)$配售没给散户，全是机构，看成交量募集的40亿都卖光了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151631593","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3564198323081351","authorId":"3564198323081351","name":"一心想当富婆的妞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d930348576659679a8c9a431c93b156","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3564198323081351","idStr":"3564198323081351"},"content":"所以机构没格局咯，20%开始抛售，散户当然接不住。","text":"所以机构没格局咯，20%开始抛售，散户当然接不住。","html":"所以机构没格局咯，20%开始抛售，散户当然接不住。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":822205939,"gmtCreate":1634132618925,"gmtModify":1634133717160,"author":{"id":"3452481063235747","authorId":"3452481063235747","name":"贝兼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4deabb898dab8343d8b2312a02923975","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3452481063235747","authorIdStr":"3452481063235747"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">$RLX科技(RLX)$</a>7块跌下来是香港的利空消息，美国的利好消息是不是可以收复失地？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">$RLX科技(RLX)$</a>7块跌下来是香港的利空消息，美国的利好消息是不是可以收复失地？","text":"$RLX科技(RLX)$7块跌下来是香港的利空消息，美国的利好消息是不是可以收复失地？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822205939","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3960,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3568619230200761","authorId":"3568619230200761","name":"买股需要信仰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8656c823d236bc45b8bee9764fbc72d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568619230200761","authorIdStr":"3568619230200761"},"content":"rlx没有把美国的销售业绩纳入，这个股票只是针对中国的业绩，美国利好跟他没关系，在骗而已","text":"rlx没有把美国的销售业绩纳入，这个股票只是针对中国的业绩，美国利好跟他没关系，在骗而已","html":"rlx没有把美国的销售业绩纳入，这个股票只是针对中国的业绩，美国利好跟他没关系，在骗而已"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":615765211,"gmtCreate":1653212248333,"gmtModify":1653214317419,"author":{"id":"3452481063235747","authorId":"3452481063235747","name":"贝兼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4deabb898dab8343d8b2312a02923975","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3452481063235747","authorIdStr":"3452481063235747"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这写的哪都不挨哪，你可能不知道特斯拉的市值到底有多大，盈利性和现金流之好都没概念，哪还有那小乐趣去操作股价什么的","listText":"这写的哪都不挨哪，你可能不知道特斯拉的市值到底有多大，盈利性和现金流之好都没概念，哪还有那小乐趣去操作股价什么的","text":"这写的哪都不挨哪，你可能不知道特斯拉的市值到底有多大，盈利性和现金流之好都没概念，哪还有那小乐趣去操作股价什么的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/615765211","repostId":"1109790779","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109790779","pubTimestamp":1653106129,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109790779?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-21 12:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"全球首富也许被做局猎杀？马斯克弃卒保“车” 为时已晚","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109790779","media":"泷韬全球宏观","summary":"我们在4/28警告，Elon Musk涉嫌操纵Tesla（故意放利好）和Twitter股价（违反二级市场并购条款），用股权抵押融资并购，给自己埋下了一颗金融核弹，可能导致其像Bill Hwang一样爆","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>我们在4/28警告，Elon Musk涉嫌操纵Tesla（故意放利好）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a>股价（违反二级市场并购条款），用股权抵押融资并购，给自己埋下了一颗金融核弹，可能导致其像Bill Hwang一样爆仓。</p><p>我们归纳的风险：</p><ol><li><p>涉嫌操纵股票，导致波动率加大；</p></li><li><p>TWITTER股东诉讼MUSK未按证券法举牌；</p></li><li><p>MS抵押贷款的补仓线40%；</p></li><li><p>TSLA内部对高管规定的25%补仓线，可能加剧流动性风险；</p></li><li><p>MS和TSLA抵押贷款之间的15%差别，可能加剧流动性风险；</p></li><li><p>TWITTER的经营风险可能迫使MUSK筹集资金；</p></li><li><p>贷款方对冲来自股价的敞口暴露的风险。</p></li></ol><p><b>一、并购动机 = 操纵股价，套利</b></p><p>首先，如我们上次猜测，Musk这次并购很可能是为了操纵股价而套利，类似当年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>在2012年溢价全面私有化港股阿里巴巴网络有限公司，等到2017年再重新上市，从而实现巨额套利。虽然当初有溢价，但因为管理层知道与企业未来基本面相关的内幕消息，所以其实是廉价收购。</p><p>这次Musk的方案是，私有化Twitter以后，对企业和政/府用户开始收费。为未来更高价再次IPO做好准备。所以不要以为为他真的是人类灵魂工程师，为了所谓的言、论、自、由而战，他是为了利益，就像他以前操纵Tesla和MEME stocks, DogeCoin股价一样。只不过这次更加隐蔽，吃相没那么难看。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62c991095e162a09cad0b552764551a5\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>可惜，<b>聪明反被聪明误，不作死不会死</b>。</p><p>—— 其后，TSLA股价从宣布收购起</p><p><b>至5/13，</b></p><p><b>从4/4第一次宣布收购，最大跌幅37.3%</b></p><p><b>从4/25宣布用股权质押方案起，最大跌幅31.8%</b>。</p><p><b>即使从后者算，其跌幅已经超过TESLA 25%内部补仓线</b>。</p><p>—— 当然，由于我们不知道抵押贷款合同从何时正式生效，所以在计算这些阈值会有误差。</p><p>——但是，从Musk最近一周的动作，我们明显观察到他的捉襟见肘。</p><p><b>二、5/2 Musk推出Twitter优先股融资计划</b></p><p>据Bloomberg和Reuters, Musk在5月初和PE基金Apollo和Ares商议，通过发行价值60亿美金的Twitter优先股，来降低收购成本。由此，我们看出，Musk已经嗅到自己的金融危机。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e819d7c525ad8010f3646842be7259fa\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The billionaire’s advisers, led byMorgan Stanley, have begun soliciting interest from potential investors for as much as $6 billion in preferred equity financing, the sources said, asking not to be named discussing a private transaction.</p><p>—— Bloomberg 5/2</p><p>The new financing, which could come in the form of preferred or common equity, could reduce the $21 billion cash contribution that Musk has committed to the deal as well as a margin loan he secured against his Tesla shares, the sources said.</p><p>The banks that agreed last month to provide $13 billion in loans based on Twitter&#39;s business balked at offering more debt for Musk&#39;s acquisition given the San Francisco-based company&#39;s limited cash flow, Reuters reported last month.read more</p><p>Musk has also pledged some of his Tesla shares to banks to arrange a $12.5 billion margin loan to help fund the deal. He may seek to trim the size of the margin loan based on the new investor interest in the deal financing, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the sources said.</p><p>Major investors such as private equity firms, hedge funds and high net-worth individuals are in talks with Musk about providing preferred equity financing for the acquisition, the sources said. Preferred equity would pay a fixed dividend from Twitter, in the same way that a bond or a loan pays regular interest but would appreciate in line with the equity value of the company.</p><p>Apollo Global Management Inc(APO.N) and Ares Management Corp(ARES.N) are among the private equity firms that have been in talks about providing the financing, the sources added.</p><p>—— Reuters 5/3</p><p><b>三、5/13, 暂停收购，埋怨僵尸粉</b></p><p>5/13，Musk突然在Twitter宣布暂停收购Twitter，声称要彻查Twitter的僵尸粉，彷佛假如僵尸粉超过5%的比例，就要借坡下驴，放弃收购或压低价格。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a0c6319559ea3997759b4813c655b0f\" tg-width=\"586\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>但是，Musk之前真的不知道Twitter有僵尸粉吗？<b>在4/26，他亲口在Twitter上发言，“让Twitter更伟大...通过打败僵尸粉”</b>。他既然要说让Twitter更伟大了，难道如此宏伟的目标只是基于5%的边际效应？我看绝非如此：有点数学或企业管理常识的人，都不会是这个小于5%的潜台词。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/115818af01e07657d1f52c8b637a8860\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>由此我们可以看到：</p><ol><li><p><b>Musk的出尔反尔，而且如此大的并购消息不是通过正规金融媒体渠道发布，而是通过Twitter，颇有川建国同志治国之风；</b></p></li><li><p><b>如此行径，实在无法避免内幕交易之嫌。假如他的亲友提前做多Tesla/做空Twitter, 当天可以盈利15.4%。</b></p></li></ol><p>消息一出，Twitter跌9.7%，Tesla股票反弹5.7% VS NASDAQ100 +3.7% —— 这是个很不正常的现象，因为Tesla的股价近5年，和NASDAQ的beta接近于2，正常来说如此大的利好该反弹7-10%才对。<b>仅仅反弹5.7%，证明：</b></p><ol><li><p><b>投资者已经对Tesla或Musk失去信任度，为估值减分；</b></p></li><li><p><b>或者认为该收购无法取消。</b></p></li></ol><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e928090c3446b17f67100ca36ec2153\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>四、5/17，减持SpaceX谣言</b></p><p>5/17，再传谣言，SpaceX要向员工以70USD/股减持股票，使得公司估值达到1250亿USD。据说Musk持有其44%股份（As of August last year Musk owned almost 44% of SpaceX, according to a Federal Communications Commission filing reported bytech blog WCCF Tech.）</p><p>这个谣言更加加固了Musk已经处于需要补仓的金融困境。</p><p>SpaceX is planning to sell shares to employees, The New York Post and Bloomberg report.</p><p>SpaceX plans to sell at $70 a share, which would value the company at $125 billion.</p><p>This comes as CEO Elon Musk is reportedly seeking new financing for his Twitter takeover.</p><p>Elon Musk&#39;s SpaceX is planning to sell shares to employees,The New York Post andBloomberg report.</p><p>Sources told The Post and Bloomberg SpaceX is planning to sell employee stock at $70 a share. The Post reported the sale, which would value the company at $125 billion, would start on Tuesday.</p><p>https://news.yahoo.com/spacex-selling-shares-125-billion-102904936.html</p><p><b>五、</b>5/19，再传噩耗：<b>标准普尔道琼斯指数公司已将Tesla从其标普500ESG指数中删除；称关注Tesla处理与自动驾驶有关的车祸后的调查情况</b>。</p><p>此举可谓雪上加霜，大概率会导致ESG <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a>基金投资者，被迫减持Tesla股票。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee999c65fd65158ff1df887f7138167\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>六、5/20，再传性侵丑闻</b></p><p>据爆料，Musk性侵SpaceX女员工，并支付封口费。这个新闻可能会再次刺激ESG基金减持Tesla。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f3defbd4f1cc071bb83b6ff91162bb2\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>七、全球首富也许被(民主党或华尔街)做局？</b></p><p>注意，</p><p>TSLA股价从宣布收购起</p><p><b>至5/13，</b></p><p><b>从4/4第一次宣布收购，最大跌幅37.3%</b></p><p><b>从4/25宣布用股权质押方案起，最大跌幅31.8%</b>。</p><p><b>即使从后者算，其跌幅已经超过TESLA 25%内部补仓线</b>。</p><p>而本周，各种与Musk和Tesla相关的丑闻利空如此频繁地 —— 配合Musk的补仓线被轰炸 —— 而出现，我们不得不怀疑，也有有人在暗中做局，猎杀Musk。</p><p>我们注意到，在Musk签的股权抵押贷款合同里有补充条款，限定他在某些情况下必须全额缴款：其中两条是：<b>一旦发生</b></p><ul><li><p><b>对借款人付款的判决或命令</b></p></li><li><p><b>任何政府对借款人的，合理预期会产生重大不利影响的调查，</b></p></li></ul><p><b>任何以上事件发生，以及随后条款的执行，都将终止Musk的保证金贷款协议，全部 125 亿美元将必须立即支付。</b></p><p><b>这次空乘事件会不会引发法制机关介入呢？</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1cd6600b67edf6f380dbe05a56ab8f7\" tg-width=\"735\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>我们之所以怀疑华尔街介入，是因为如我们前文分析，Tesla股票有巨大估值泡沫，而股权抵押贷款把系统性风险与股票泡沫打通，千载难逢的割韭菜机会 —— 联想 Bill Hwang 去年大概率被投行或相关机构割韭菜。</p><p>但是，我们也不能排除这是一场Biden、民主党和Musk的大战。二者仇恨由来已久。今年一月，Biden为了拉动电动车投资，接见GM和Ford CEOs，单单没有电动车一号网红Tesla CEO。Musk在Twitter公开骂Biden是别人的傀儡，欺骗美国大众。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be89824bece144e40a481152c58f72ef\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"968\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb58831c2c9e38b5353cb7d5a08a875b\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"243\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5de04dbb432e818feeaa047f8ff254\" tg-width=\"774\" tg-height=\"935\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>5/19, Musk再次在Twitter公开批评民主党制造分裂和仇恨，批评民主党作弊，声称要支持共和党。</p><p>我虽然不喜欢Musk操纵金融市场和作秀，但这几句话深表同意 —— 看看Biden上台后，全球分裂，欧洲陷入战火，准三次世界大战发生的概率在上升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c651863f4980f85e14520d984baaf9b\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e334dbb02ac7616c91429b3f7aecfe5\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"89\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c5216633ce01cbb650b69bc58d753c\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>所以，本周的关于Tesla和Musk的丑闻，我们无法排除民主党在背后操纵：</p><p>Biden和民主党为了打击俄罗斯，不惜把美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">全民</a>的民生，股市，下届美国总统大选，美国原油战略储备，乌克兰百姓的生命，欧洲的和平和通胀，一起押在牌桌上；</p><p>那么，即使Tesla的权重在SP500里极其重要，牵一发而动全身，Biden和民主党会不会为了打压Musk，而在所不惜呢？</p><p><b>八、Musk可以停止收购Twitter，舍卒保车，全身而退？</b></p><p>这个问题，具体需要看Musk和Twitter, 投行签署的并购条款。我们拿不到一手的完整资料，无法判断。但是根据Bloomberg记者Matt Levine的信，大概率无法取消 —— 因为</p><ul><li><p>Musk签的是一份&#34;盲合同&#34;，</p></li><li><p>他必须尽全力去履行合同义务，促使交易完成；他不能暂停。</p></li><li><p>即使证明Twitter有5%僵尸粉，Musk也无法脱身。虽然Twitter 在一份证券文件中承认，多年来它（略微）高估了每日活跃用户。合并协议包含一项条款，如果 Twitter 的证券文件有误，马斯克可以离开——这 5% 的数字在其证券文件中——但前提是该错误会对公司产生“重大不利影响”。（参见第 4.6(a) 和 7.2(b) 节。）这是一个令人难以置信的高标准：特拉华州法院几乎从未找到“重大不利影响”。法院表示，“重大不利影响”必须是“以持续时间显著的方式严重威胁目标的整体盈利潜力”的东西；根据经验，“重大不利影响”要求长期盈利能力下降 40%。如果结果是 6% 或 20% 或 50% 的 Twitter 帐户是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>，那将是令人尴尬的，甚至可能会减少 Twitter 未来的广告收入，但它会被定性为“重大不利影响” 吗？很难。</p></li><li><p>“待定细节支持计算”披露——“虚假或垃圾邮件账户的平均值……仅占 Twitter 可货币化每日活跃用户的不到 5%——这句话多年来一直在 Twitter 的证券文件中警告，“在做出这一决定时，我们做出了重大判断，因此我们对虚假或垃圾账户的估计可能无法准确反映此类账户的实际数量，虚假或垃圾账户的实际数量可能高于我们的估计。” 马斯克在提出收购 Twitter 之前大概率肯定读到过，所以他现在很难以此为借口拒绝收购。</p></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5e5933de901221acf8509dd5854aede\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"1001\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>假如这位记者的推理成立的话，Musk看来很难脱身。那么他将继续陷入股票下跌 —— 流动性收缩的恶性循环的漩涡。</p><p><b>所谓聪明反被聪明误，不作死不会死。侥幸依赖股市泡沫成为全球首富，躲过2021年成长股下跌的Elon Musk，很可能是下一个Bill Hwang。</b></p><p><b>九、报应</b></p><p>Musk操纵股价，号召散户用期权逼空，导致很多散户死无葬身之地。我们之前写过系列文章，不再赘述。</p><p>我们去年预测过，Musk号召逼空的MEME stocks和要送上月球的DogeCoin大概率会长期阴跌，跌回起点，甚至变成废纸 —— 如今大部分已经验证。</p><p>我们看他操纵的DogeCoin，在他喊话前，明显有人在0.036-0.048之间建仓收集筹码，然后他出来喊话，DogeCoin火箭上天冲到0.725，比建仓区升幅达13.5倍，然后长期阴跌，目前0.08，离最高价跌幅近90%，想要解套，需要一波9倍以上的牛市。这是一套标准的，在A股常见的游资坐庄的模式。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd8d787898a192f148c969bf4cf700a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>可惜，天真的韭菜们还给Musk写了不少赞歌。此处摘录两首，</p><p>第一首，歌手要把DogeCoin送上1USD；</p><p>第二首，一个绿色能源的拥护者，刚被Robinhood在Elon Musk号召的期权逼空大潮里割韭菜，付不起房租，把仅有的余钱买入Dogecoin，希望Elon Musk送她上天，并给她在登月留一席之地...</p><p>我是70后，虽然没经历过文革，但多少感受过余孽，所以对日月神教式的洗脑+割韭菜模式天生反感，也敏感。所以去年我们连续撰文，警告Elon Musk的庞氏骗局。</p><blockquote>Musk 为了个人恩怨，偏见，复仇，鼓动群众，利用他们对贫富差距的不满（他本人就是央行放水的资产泡沫导致贫富差距扩大的最大的受益者，全地球最大，没有之一），利用他们一夜暴富的心理，买庞氏骗局 —— 目的是逼空，而这些空头大多数是做空资产泡沫，做空庞氏骗局的人 —— 完全不顾弱势群体的实际经济利益。”  “大众对Musk的崇拜，是奴性，缺乏独立思考的体现，甚至包含拜金主义在里面 ——  假如他们的股票没有暴涨，公司濒临破产，还会有这么多拥趸吗？... 这个事件，本质就像靠民主投票上台的纳粹煽动德国人屠杀犹太人，是人类的悲哀。尤其希望每个本质善良的普通人，低收入的人，多点独立思考，不要被政客、权谋家、利益集团玩弄。</blockquote><blockquote>这样一个</blockquote><blockquote>公众可以信任吗？</blockquote><blockquote>我并不反对Musk合法赚钱，</blockquote><blockquote>我只反对众多媒体把他塑造成人类的希望或救星。</blockquote><blockquote>Musk根本不是什么钢铁侠</blockquote><blockquote>—— 侠，是代表弱者，挑战暴力、维护公众正义的人。</blockquote><blockquote>他的事迹大多为了个人私利，割弱小百姓韭菜，离“侠”太远。</blockquote><ul><li><p>Tsla股票也许是下一个即将破裂的资产泡沫 (修订版) | 泷韬全球宏观</p></li><li><p>Elon Musk如果当权，对人类将是灾难GME逼空事件的赢家，输家，和政客Chamath Palihapitiya和Elon Musk都是华尔街的既得利益者驳Chamath Palihapitiya在CNBC的发言</p></li></ul><p><b>所谓聪明反被聪明误，不作死不会死。侥幸依赖股市泡沫成为全球首富，躲过2021年成长股下跌的Elon Musk，很可能是下一个Bill Hwang。</b></p><p>不过虽然我反感Musk为了个人私利，操纵大众思想的类似纳粹的行为，但假如是民主党给他做局，我们不得不慨叹在Deep State的政客面前，作为全球首富是多么渺小和悲哀。在对是世界的操纵和伤害，以及面具的厚度层面，Musk还远远不及。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584520488112","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>全球首富也许被做局猎杀？马斯克弃卒保“车” 为时已晚</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n全球首富也许被做局猎杀？马斯克弃卒保“车” 为时已晚\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-21 12:08 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RnCE4lSJCFNvjKRTofy8wg><strong>泷韬全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>我们在4/28警告，Elon Musk涉嫌操纵Tesla（故意放利好）和Twitter股价（违反二级市场并购条款），用股权抵押融资并购，给自己埋下了一颗金融核弹，可能导致其像Bill Hwang一样爆仓。我们归纳的风险：涉嫌操纵股票，导致波动率加大；TWITTER股东诉讼MUSK未按证券法举牌；MS抵押贷款的补仓线40%；TSLA内部对高管规定的25%补仓线，可能加剧流动性风险；MS和TSLA抵押...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RnCE4lSJCFNvjKRTofy8wg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75856ca600aa7110c9cdf0d842b9cef3","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RnCE4lSJCFNvjKRTofy8wg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109790779","content_text":"我们在4/28警告，Elon Musk涉嫌操纵Tesla（故意放利好）和Twitter股价（违反二级市场并购条款），用股权抵押融资并购，给自己埋下了一颗金融核弹，可能导致其像Bill Hwang一样爆仓。我们归纳的风险：涉嫌操纵股票，导致波动率加大；TWITTER股东诉讼MUSK未按证券法举牌；MS抵押贷款的补仓线40%；TSLA内部对高管规定的25%补仓线，可能加剧流动性风险；MS和TSLA抵押贷款之间的15%差别，可能加剧流动性风险；TWITTER的经营风险可能迫使MUSK筹集资金；贷款方对冲来自股价的敞口暴露的风险。一、并购动机 = 操纵股价，套利首先，如我们上次猜测，Musk这次并购很可能是为了操纵股价而套利，类似当年阿里巴巴在2012年溢价全面私有化港股阿里巴巴网络有限公司，等到2017年再重新上市，从而实现巨额套利。虽然当初有溢价，但因为管理层知道与企业未来基本面相关的内幕消息，所以其实是廉价收购。这次Musk的方案是，私有化Twitter以后，对企业和政/府用户开始收费。为未来更高价再次IPO做好准备。所以不要以为为他真的是人类灵魂工程师，为了所谓的言、论、自、由而战，他是为了利益，就像他以前操纵Tesla和MEME stocks, DogeCoin股价一样。只不过这次更加隐蔽，吃相没那么难看。可惜，聪明反被聪明误，不作死不会死。—— 其后，TSLA股价从宣布收购起至5/13，从4/4第一次宣布收购，最大跌幅37.3%从4/25宣布用股权质押方案起，最大跌幅31.8%。即使从后者算，其跌幅已经超过TESLA 25%内部补仓线。—— 当然，由于我们不知道抵押贷款合同从何时正式生效，所以在计算这些阈值会有误差。——但是，从Musk最近一周的动作，我们明显观察到他的捉襟见肘。二、5/2 Musk推出Twitter优先股融资计划据Bloomberg和Reuters, Musk在5月初和PE基金Apollo和Ares商议，通过发行价值60亿美金的Twitter优先股，来降低收购成本。由此，我们看出，Musk已经嗅到自己的金融危机。The billionaire’s advisers, led byMorgan Stanley, have begun soliciting interest from potential investors for as much as $6 billion in preferred equity financing, the sources said, asking not to be named discussing a private transaction.—— Bloomberg 5/2The new financing, which could come in the form of preferred or common equity, could reduce the $21 billion cash contribution that Musk has committed to the deal as well as a margin loan he secured against his Tesla shares, the sources said.The banks that agreed last month to provide $13 billion in loans based on Twitter's business balked at offering more debt for Musk's acquisition given the San Francisco-based company's limited cash flow, Reuters reported last month.read moreMusk has also pledged some of his Tesla shares to banks to arrange a $12.5 billion margin loan to help fund the deal. He may seek to trim the size of the margin loan based on the new investor interest in the deal financing, one of the sources said.Major investors such as private equity firms, hedge funds and high net-worth individuals are in talks with Musk about providing preferred equity financing for the acquisition, the sources said. Preferred equity would pay a fixed dividend from Twitter, in the same way that a bond or a loan pays regular interest but would appreciate in line with the equity value of the company.Apollo Global Management Inc(APO.N) and Ares Management Corp(ARES.N) are among the private equity firms that have been in talks about providing the financing, the sources added.—— Reuters 5/3三、5/13, 暂停收购，埋怨僵尸粉5/13，Musk突然在Twitter宣布暂停收购Twitter，声称要彻查Twitter的僵尸粉，彷佛假如僵尸粉超过5%的比例，就要借坡下驴，放弃收购或压低价格。但是，Musk之前真的不知道Twitter有僵尸粉吗？在4/26，他亲口在Twitter上发言，“让Twitter更伟大...通过打败僵尸粉”。他既然要说让Twitter更伟大了，难道如此宏伟的目标只是基于5%的边际效应？我看绝非如此：有点数学或企业管理常识的人，都不会是这个小于5%的潜台词。由此我们可以看到：Musk的出尔反尔，而且如此大的并购消息不是通过正规金融媒体渠道发布，而是通过Twitter，颇有川建国同志治国之风；如此行径，实在无法避免内幕交易之嫌。假如他的亲友提前做多Tesla/做空Twitter, 当天可以盈利15.4%。消息一出，Twitter跌9.7%，Tesla股票反弹5.7% VS NASDAQ100 +3.7% —— 这是个很不正常的现象，因为Tesla的股价近5年，和NASDAQ的beta接近于2，正常来说如此大的利好该反弹7-10%才对。仅仅反弹5.7%，证明：投资者已经对Tesla或Musk失去信任度，为估值减分；或者认为该收购无法取消。四、5/17，减持SpaceX谣言5/17，再传谣言，SpaceX要向员工以70USD/股减持股票，使得公司估值达到1250亿USD。据说Musk持有其44%股份（As of August last year Musk owned almost 44% of SpaceX, according to a Federal Communications Commission filing reported bytech blog WCCF Tech.）这个谣言更加加固了Musk已经处于需要补仓的金融困境。SpaceX is planning to sell shares to employees, The New York Post and Bloomberg report.SpaceX plans to sell at $70 a share, which would value the company at $125 billion.This comes as CEO Elon Musk is reportedly seeking new financing for his Twitter takeover.Elon Musk's SpaceX is planning to sell shares to employees,The New York Post andBloomberg report.Sources told The Post and Bloomberg SpaceX is planning to sell employee stock at $70 a share. The Post reported the sale, which would value the company at $125 billion, would start on Tuesday.https://news.yahoo.com/spacex-selling-shares-125-billion-102904936.html五、5/19，再传噩耗：标准普尔道琼斯指数公司已将Tesla从其标普500ESG指数中删除；称关注Tesla处理与自动驾驶有关的车祸后的调查情况。此举可谓雪上加霜，大概率会导致ESG Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF基金投资者，被迫减持Tesla股票。六、5/20，再传性侵丑闻据爆料，Musk性侵SpaceX女员工，并支付封口费。这个新闻可能会再次刺激ESG基金减持Tesla。七、全球首富也许被(民主党或华尔街)做局？注意，TSLA股价从宣布收购起至5/13，从4/4第一次宣布收购，最大跌幅37.3%从4/25宣布用股权质押方案起，最大跌幅31.8%。即使从后者算，其跌幅已经超过TESLA 25%内部补仓线。而本周，各种与Musk和Tesla相关的丑闻利空如此频繁地 —— 配合Musk的补仓线被轰炸 —— 而出现，我们不得不怀疑，也有有人在暗中做局，猎杀Musk。我们注意到，在Musk签的股权抵押贷款合同里有补充条款，限定他在某些情况下必须全额缴款：其中两条是：一旦发生对借款人付款的判决或命令任何政府对借款人的，合理预期会产生重大不利影响的调查，任何以上事件发生，以及随后条款的执行，都将终止Musk的保证金贷款协议，全部 125 亿美元将必须立即支付。这次空乘事件会不会引发法制机关介入呢？我们之所以怀疑华尔街介入，是因为如我们前文分析，Tesla股票有巨大估值泡沫，而股权抵押贷款把系统性风险与股票泡沫打通，千载难逢的割韭菜机会 —— 联想 Bill Hwang 去年大概率被投行或相关机构割韭菜。但是，我们也不能排除这是一场Biden、民主党和Musk的大战。二者仇恨由来已久。今年一月，Biden为了拉动电动车投资，接见GM和Ford CEOs，单单没有电动车一号网红Tesla CEO。Musk在Twitter公开骂Biden是别人的傀儡，欺骗美国大众。5/19, Musk再次在Twitter公开批评民主党制造分裂和仇恨，批评民主党作弊，声称要支持共和党。我虽然不喜欢Musk操纵金融市场和作秀，但这几句话深表同意 —— 看看Biden上台后，全球分裂，欧洲陷入战火，准三次世界大战发生的概率在上升。所以，本周的关于Tesla和Musk的丑闻，我们无法排除民主党在背后操纵：Biden和民主党为了打击俄罗斯，不惜把美国全民的民生，股市，下届美国总统大选，美国原油战略储备，乌克兰百姓的生命，欧洲的和平和通胀，一起押在牌桌上；那么，即使Tesla的权重在SP500里极其重要，牵一发而动全身，Biden和民主党会不会为了打压Musk，而在所不惜呢？八、Musk可以停止收购Twitter，舍卒保车，全身而退？这个问题，具体需要看Musk和Twitter, 投行签署的并购条款。我们拿不到一手的完整资料，无法判断。但是根据Bloomberg记者Matt Levine的信，大概率无法取消 —— 因为Musk签的是一份\"盲合同\"，他必须尽全力去履行合同义务，促使交易完成；他不能暂停。即使证明Twitter有5%僵尸粉，Musk也无法脱身。虽然Twitter 在一份证券文件中承认，多年来它（略微）高估了每日活跃用户。合并协议包含一项条款，如果 Twitter 的证券文件有误，马斯克可以离开——这 5% 的数字在其证券文件中——但前提是该错误会对公司产生“重大不利影响”。（参见第 4.6(a) 和 7.2(b) 节。）这是一个令人难以置信的高标准：特拉华州法院几乎从未找到“重大不利影响”。法院表示，“重大不利影响”必须是“以持续时间显著的方式严重威胁目标的整体盈利潜力”的东西；根据经验，“重大不利影响”要求长期盈利能力下降 40%。如果结果是 6% 或 20% 或 50% 的 Twitter 帐户是机器人，那将是令人尴尬的，甚至可能会减少 Twitter 未来的广告收入，但它会被定性为“重大不利影响” 吗？很难。“待定细节支持计算”披露——“虚假或垃圾邮件账户的平均值……仅占 Twitter 可货币化每日活跃用户的不到 5%——这句话多年来一直在 Twitter 的证券文件中警告，“在做出这一决定时，我们做出了重大判断，因此我们对虚假或垃圾账户的估计可能无法准确反映此类账户的实际数量，虚假或垃圾账户的实际数量可能高于我们的估计。” 马斯克在提出收购 Twitter 之前大概率肯定读到过，所以他现在很难以此为借口拒绝收购。假如这位记者的推理成立的话，Musk看来很难脱身。那么他将继续陷入股票下跌 —— 流动性收缩的恶性循环的漩涡。所谓聪明反被聪明误，不作死不会死。侥幸依赖股市泡沫成为全球首富，躲过2021年成长股下跌的Elon Musk，很可能是下一个Bill Hwang。九、报应Musk操纵股价，号召散户用期权逼空，导致很多散户死无葬身之地。我们之前写过系列文章，不再赘述。我们去年预测过，Musk号召逼空的MEME stocks和要送上月球的DogeCoin大概率会长期阴跌，跌回起点，甚至变成废纸 —— 如今大部分已经验证。我们看他操纵的DogeCoin，在他喊话前，明显有人在0.036-0.048之间建仓收集筹码，然后他出来喊话，DogeCoin火箭上天冲到0.725，比建仓区升幅达13.5倍，然后长期阴跌，目前0.08，离最高价跌幅近90%，想要解套，需要一波9倍以上的牛市。这是一套标准的，在A股常见的游资坐庄的模式。可惜，天真的韭菜们还给Musk写了不少赞歌。此处摘录两首，第一首，歌手要把DogeCoin送上1USD；第二首，一个绿色能源的拥护者，刚被Robinhood在Elon Musk号召的期权逼空大潮里割韭菜，付不起房租，把仅有的余钱买入Dogecoin，希望Elon Musk送她上天，并给她在登月留一席之地...我是70后，虽然没经历过文革，但多少感受过余孽，所以对日月神教式的洗脑+割韭菜模式天生反感，也敏感。所以去年我们连续撰文，警告Elon Musk的庞氏骗局。Musk 为了个人恩怨，偏见，复仇，鼓动群众，利用他们对贫富差距的不满（他本人就是央行放水的资产泡沫导致贫富差距扩大的最大的受益者，全地球最大，没有之一），利用他们一夜暴富的心理，买庞氏骗局 —— 目的是逼空，而这些空头大多数是做空资产泡沫，做空庞氏骗局的人 —— 完全不顾弱势群体的实际经济利益。”  “大众对Musk的崇拜，是奴性，缺乏独立思考的体现，甚至包含拜金主义在里面 ——  假如他们的股票没有暴涨，公司濒临破产，还会有这么多拥趸吗？... 这个事件，本质就像靠民主投票上台的纳粹煽动德国人屠杀犹太人，是人类的悲哀。尤其希望每个本质善良的普通人，低收入的人，多点独立思考，不要被政客、权谋家、利益集团玩弄。这样一个公众可以信任吗？我并不反对Musk合法赚钱，我只反对众多媒体把他塑造成人类的希望或救星。Musk根本不是什么钢铁侠—— 侠，是代表弱者，挑战暴力、维护公众正义的人。他的事迹大多为了个人私利，割弱小百姓韭菜，离“侠”太远。Tsla股票也许是下一个即将破裂的资产泡沫 (修订版) | 泷韬全球宏观Elon Musk如果当权，对人类将是灾难GME逼空事件的赢家，输家，和政客Chamath Palihapitiya和Elon Musk都是华尔街的既得利益者驳Chamath Palihapitiya在CNBC的发言所谓聪明反被聪明误，不作死不会死。侥幸依赖股市泡沫成为全球首富，躲过2021年成长股下跌的Elon Musk，很可能是下一个Bill Hwang。不过虽然我反感Musk为了个人私利，操纵大众思想的类似纳粹的行为，但假如是民主党给他做局，我们不得不慨叹在Deep State的政客面前，作为全球首富是多么渺小和悲哀。在对是世界的操纵和伤害，以及面具的厚度层面，Musk还远远不及。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870042909,"gmtCreate":1636562114440,"gmtModify":1636562114440,"author":{"id":"3452481063235747","authorId":"3452481063235747","name":"贝兼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4deabb898dab8343d8b2312a02923975","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3452481063235747","authorIdStr":"3452481063235747"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>双十一的热度衰减这么多，为何股价没动？","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">$RLX科技(RLX)$</a>昨天贪了，没走，今天走不走？","text":"$RLX科技(RLX)$昨天贪了，没走，今天走不走？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc0c77c29c817a48aa41ee75828af85","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874674697","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":853478657,"gmtCreate":1634832417987,"gmtModify":1634832417987,"author":{"id":"3452481063235747","authorId":"3452481063235747","name":"贝兼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4deabb898dab8343d8b2312a02923975","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3452481063235747","authorIdStr":"3452481063235747"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>咋了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>咋了","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$咋了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853478657","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3505819614035438","authorId":"3505819614035438","name":"趋势是个好东西","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c00d7d431d12f2f571e3aaa137d52977","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3505819614035438","authorIdStr":"3505819614035438"},"content":"市场消息：谷歌(GOOG.O、GOOGL.O)将削减其从应用商店订阅中获取的费用。","text":"市场消息：谷歌(GOOG.O、GOOGL.O)将削减其从应用商店订阅中获取的费用。","html":"市场消息：谷歌(GOOG.O、GOOGL.O)将削减其从应用商店订阅中获取的费用。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":151636757,"gmtCreate":1625078883379,"gmtModify":1625078883379,"author":{"id":"3452481063235747","authorId":"3452481063235747","name":"贝兼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4deabb898dab8343d8b2312a02923975","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3452481063235747","authorIdStr":"3452481063235747"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>估计配售的机构都商量好了，到14就别卖了，破发全亏，容易形成恐慌踩踏","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>估计配售的机构都商量好了，到14就别卖了，破发全亏，容易形成恐慌踩踏","text":"$滴滴(DIDI)$估计配售的机构都商量好了，到14就别卖了，破发全亏，容易形成恐慌踩踏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151636757","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":943,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":151631593,"gmtCreate":1625078440912,"gmtModify":1625078440912,"author":{"id":"3452481063235747","authorId":"3452481063235747","name":"贝兼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4deabb898dab8343d8b2312a02923975","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3452481063235747","authorIdStr":"3452481063235747"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>配售没给散户，全是机构，看成交量募集的40亿都卖光了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>配售没给散户，全是机构，看成交量募集的40亿都卖光了","text":"$滴滴(DIDI)$配售没给散户，全是机构，看成交量募集的40亿都卖光了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151631593","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3564198323081351","authorId":"3564198323081351","name":"一心想当富婆的妞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d930348576659679a8c9a431c93b156","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3564198323081351","authorIdStr":"3564198323081351"},"content":"所以机构没格局咯，20%开始抛售，散户当然接不住。","text":"所以机构没格局咯，20%开始抛售，散户当然接不住。","html":"所以机构没格局咯，20%开始抛售，散户当然接不住。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":686066560,"gmtCreate":1657895098752,"gmtModify":1704868666557,"author":{"id":"3452481063235747","authorId":"3452481063235747","name":"贝兼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4deabb898dab8343d8b2312a02923975","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3452481063235747","authorIdStr":"3452481063235747"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"供给有阻碍，需求没变怕什么","listText":"供给有阻碍，需求没变怕什么","text":"供给有阻碍，需求没变怕什么","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/686066560","repostId":"2251489275","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2251489275","pubTimestamp":1657869999,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2251489275?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-15 15:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉二季报要爆雷？华尔街关注这个指标","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2251489275","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"华尔街认为，特斯拉将准备迎接艰难的第二季度。美东时间7月20日周三美股盘后，特斯拉将公布第二季度财报业绩，分析师担心这家电动汽车制造商经历了一个十分困难的季度，原因是供应链持续受阻，以及与疫情相关的工","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>华尔街认为，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>将准备迎接艰难的第二季度。</p><p>美东时间7月20日周三美股盘后，特斯拉将公布第二季度财报业绩，分析师担心这家电动汽车制造商经历了一个十分困难的季度，原因是供应链持续受阻，以及与疫情相关的工厂停工。</p><p>Argus Research 分析师 Bill Selesky 表示：</p><blockquote>基于持续的供应链问题和工厂停工，我们完全预计（第二季度）会很艰难。</blockquote><p>本月早些时候，特斯拉公布的数据显示第二季度交付量同比下降：第二季度的全球出货量约为25.5万辆，低于第一季度的约31万辆。</p><p>这导致一些分析师下调了对该公司本季度业绩的预期。但Selesky说，华尔街已经考虑到了特斯拉面临的一些问题，投资者也意识到了。他表示，由于成本降低和利润率，他预计特斯拉将“小幅”超出预期。</p><p><b>瑞信的 Dan Levy 担心特斯拉第二季度的利润率将承压，预计特斯拉第二季度的毛利率约为23%，较第一季度下降约7%。他在报告中写道：“我们预计第二季度将重点关注毛利率。”但他也表示，预计随着特斯拉销量的增长，其下半年的利润率将有所回升。</b></p><p>FactSet 调查的分析师预计，特斯拉第二季度调整后的每股收益为1.86美元，相比之下，去年同期调整后每股收益为1.45美元，Levy预计为1.31美元；分析师预计特斯拉第二季度的营业收入为175亿美元，销售额为166亿美元，而去年同期的销售额为120亿美元。</p><p>今年以来，特斯拉股价下跌了约34%，表现逊于大盘指数，标普500指数下跌了约21%。然而，在过去12个月里，特斯拉股价的表现超过了大盘指数：特斯拉股价上涨了近10%，而标普500指数则下跌了约14%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/decd2dbfcbb6238f92ebe9bb734074a3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Levy 还说，特斯拉在德国柏林和得克萨斯州奥斯汀的工厂增加了一些产量，但在这两个地方“进展仍然低于预期”，而奥斯汀的“增产速度较慢”，因为它要使用新的4680电池。<b>Levy 预计第二季度仍将面临挑战，但在总体上仍是积极的。</b></p><p>特斯拉还必须应对外界对其首席执行官埃隆·马斯克试图终止收购推特交易的担忧。本周早些时候，推特称马斯克试图退出这笔交易是“无效和错误的”。</p><p>对美国经济状况的担忧也可能是华尔街对特斯拉本季度业绩进行评估的一个因素。特斯拉最近在加州提交了裁员通知，圣马特奥县约230名员工受到影响。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>的埃马纽埃尔·罗斯纳在最近的一份报告中表示：“这是特斯拉最新的裁员行动，特斯拉打算在全球范围内裁减10%的正式员工，意味着包括小时工在内的总员工人数将减少约3.5%。”该分析师称，由于预期经济衰退即将到来，预计裁员将在未来三个月内进行。</p><p>中国电动汽车制造商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>在第二季度遇到了与特斯拉类似的许多阻力，但其销量仍环比增长：比亚迪第二季度的销量从今年第一季度的约29.1万辆增至约35.5万辆。产量增加是比亚迪业绩优于预期的原因之一。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉二季报要爆雷？华尔街关注这个指标</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉二季报要爆雷？华尔街关注这个指标\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-15 15:26 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664881><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>华尔街认为，特斯拉将准备迎接艰难的第二季度。美东时间7月20日周三美股盘后，特斯拉将公布第二季度财报业绩，分析师担心这家电动汽车制造商经历了一个十分困难的季度，原因是供应链持续受阻，以及与疫情相关的工厂停工。Argus Research 分析师 Bill Selesky 表示：基于持续的供应链问题和工厂停工，我们完全预计（第二季度）会很艰难。本月早些时候，特斯拉公布的数据显示第二季度交付量同比下降...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664881\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49ab90f6352b6ebbb45091ad18b5a2e","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","FNGU":"MicroSectors FANG+ 指数每日三倍做多 ETN"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664881","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2251489275","content_text":"华尔街认为，特斯拉将准备迎接艰难的第二季度。美东时间7月20日周三美股盘后，特斯拉将公布第二季度财报业绩，分析师担心这家电动汽车制造商经历了一个十分困难的季度，原因是供应链持续受阻，以及与疫情相关的工厂停工。Argus Research 分析师 Bill Selesky 表示：基于持续的供应链问题和工厂停工，我们完全预计（第二季度）会很艰难。本月早些时候，特斯拉公布的数据显示第二季度交付量同比下降：第二季度的全球出货量约为25.5万辆，低于第一季度的约31万辆。这导致一些分析师下调了对该公司本季度业绩的预期。但Selesky说，华尔街已经考虑到了特斯拉面临的一些问题，投资者也意识到了。他表示，由于成本降低和利润率，他预计特斯拉将“小幅”超出预期。瑞信的 Dan Levy 担心特斯拉第二季度的利润率将承压，预计特斯拉第二季度的毛利率约为23%，较第一季度下降约7%。他在报告中写道：“我们预计第二季度将重点关注毛利率。”但他也表示，预计随着特斯拉销量的增长，其下半年的利润率将有所回升。FactSet 调查的分析师预计，特斯拉第二季度调整后的每股收益为1.86美元，相比之下，去年同期调整后每股收益为1.45美元，Levy预计为1.31美元；分析师预计特斯拉第二季度的营业收入为175亿美元，销售额为166亿美元，而去年同期的销售额为120亿美元。今年以来，特斯拉股价下跌了约34%，表现逊于大盘指数，标普500指数下跌了约21%。然而，在过去12个月里，特斯拉股价的表现超过了大盘指数：特斯拉股价上涨了近10%，而标普500指数则下跌了约14%。Levy 还说，特斯拉在德国柏林和得克萨斯州奥斯汀的工厂增加了一些产量，但在这两个地方“进展仍然低于预期”，而奥斯汀的“增产速度较慢”，因为它要使用新的4680电池。Levy 预计第二季度仍将面临挑战，但在总体上仍是积极的。特斯拉还必须应对外界对其首席执行官埃隆·马斯克试图终止收购推特交易的担忧。本周早些时候，推特称马斯克试图退出这笔交易是“无效和错误的”。对美国经济状况的担忧也可能是华尔街对特斯拉本季度业绩进行评估的一个因素。特斯拉最近在加州提交了裁员通知，圣马特奥县约230名员工受到影响。德意志银行的埃马纽埃尔·罗斯纳在最近的一份报告中表示：“这是特斯拉最新的裁员行动，特斯拉打算在全球范围内裁减10%的正式员工，意味着包括小时工在内的总员工人数将减少约3.5%。”该分析师称，由于预期经济衰退即将到来，预计裁员将在未来三个月内进行。中国电动汽车制造商比亚迪在第二季度遇到了与特斯拉类似的许多阻力，但其销量仍环比增长：比亚迪第二季度的销量从今年第一季度的约29.1万辆增至约35.5万辆。产量增加是比亚迪业绩优于预期的原因之一。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1829,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":632025061,"gmtCreate":1646150879966,"gmtModify":1646150879966,"author":{"id":"3452481063235747","authorId":"3452481063235747","name":"贝兼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4deabb898dab8343d8b2312a02923975","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3452481063235747","authorIdStr":"3452481063235747"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">$爱奇艺(IQ)$</a>‌就说了句计划明年不亏损，就高兴成这样？细品挺悲哀啊……就当庆祝人世间大结局吧","listText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">$爱奇艺(IQ)$</a>‌就说了句计划明年不亏损，就高兴成这样？细品挺悲哀啊……就当庆祝人世间大结局吧","text":"‌$爱奇艺(IQ)$‌就说了句计划明年不亏损，就高兴成这样？细品挺悲哀啊……就当庆祝人世间大结局吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/632025061","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":882933977,"gmtCreate":1631638283299,"gmtModify":1631638283299,"author":{"id":"3452481063235747","authorId":"3452481063235747","name":"贝兼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4deabb898dab8343d8b2312a02923975","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3452481063235747","authorIdStr":"3452481063235747"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">$RLX科技(RLX)$</a>上下都有大单压着，在几分钱的区间横着，啥意思？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">$RLX科技(RLX)$</a>上下都有大单压着，在几分钱的区间横着，啥意思？","text":"$RLX科技(RLX)$上下都有大单压着，在几分钱的区间横着，啥意思？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882933977","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":896638721,"gmtCreate":1628575817663,"gmtModify":1628575817663,"author":{"id":"3452481063235747","authorId":"3452481063235747","name":"贝兼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4deabb898dab8343d8b2312a02923975","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3452481063235747","authorIdStr":"3452481063235747"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"难怪着急上市","listText":"难怪着急上市","text":"难怪着急上市","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896638721","repostId":"1194262022","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194262022","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628575682,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194262022?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-10 14:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"软银第一财季净利润7615.1亿日元，环比大降61%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194262022","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月10日，软银公布2021财年第一季度财报。财报显示，软银第一季度销售净额1.48万亿日元，分析师预估1.38万亿日元（区间1.37万亿日元至1.4万亿日元）；第一季度净利润7615.1亿日元，环比","content":"<p>8月10日，软银公布2021财年第一季度财报。财报显示，软银第一季度销售净额1.48万亿日元，分析师预估1.38万亿日元（区间1.37万亿日元至1.4万亿日元）；第一季度净利润7615.1亿日元，环比下降61%。仍然预测全年股息44日元，分析师预估44.86日元（区间44日元至56日元）。与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>相关的收益为3580亿日元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd31c9acbb5f3088af49ca4df6b139fd\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>软银第一季度愿景基金利润2355.5亿日元，环比下滑90%；愿景基金I期、II期及其他的投资收益为2879亿日元；第一季度愿景基金I期投资了滴滴、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">满帮</a>等，愿景基金II期投资了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">京东物流</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZME\">掌门教育</a>、满帮和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">叮咚</a>买菜。</p>\n<p>软银第一季度衍生品交易收入1195.1亿日元。</p>\n<p>软银并未在投资清单中列出脸书和Alphabet（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司）。</p>\n<p>孙正义将成为愿景基金II期的联合投资人，将在愿景基金II期中投资高达26亿美元。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>软银第一财季净利润7615.1亿日元，环比大降61%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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#494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n软银第一财季净利润7615.1亿日元，环比大降61%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-10 14:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>8月10日，软银公布2021财年第一季度财报。财报显示，软银第一季度销售净额1.48万亿日元，分析师预估1.38万亿日元（区间1.37万亿日元至1.4万亿日元）；第一季度净利润7615.1亿日元，环比下降61%。仍然预测全年股息44日元，分析师预估44.86日元（区间44日元至56日元）。与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>相关的收益为3580亿日元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd31c9acbb5f3088af49ca4df6b139fd\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>软银第一季度愿景基金利润2355.5亿日元，环比下滑90%；愿景基金I期、II期及其他的投资收益为2879亿日元；第一季度愿景基金I期投资了滴滴、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">满帮</a>等，愿景基金II期投资了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">京东物流</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZME\">掌门教育</a>、满帮和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">叮咚</a>买菜。</p>\n<p>软银第一季度衍生品交易收入1195.1亿日元。</p>\n<p>软银并未在投资清单中列出脸书和Alphabet（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司）。</p>\n<p>孙正义将成为愿景基金II期的联合投资人，将在愿景基金II期中投资高达26亿美元。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37d43f47ff4637f33c2675f14c1cc937","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","SFTBY":"软银集团","GOOGL":"谷歌A","YCS":"日元ETF-ProShares两倍做空","DDL":"叮咚买菜","FXY":"日元ETF-CurrencyShares","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","ZME":"掌门教育","02618":"京东物流","YMM":"满帮"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194262022","content_text":"8月10日，软银公布2021财年第一季度财报。财报显示，软银第一季度销售净额1.48万亿日元，分析师预估1.38万亿日元（区间1.37万亿日元至1.4万亿日元）；第一季度净利润7615.1亿日元，环比下降61%。仍然预测全年股息44日元，分析师预估44.86日元（区间44日元至56日元）。与滴滴相关的收益为3580亿日元。\n\n软银第一季度愿景基金利润2355.5亿日元，环比下滑90%；愿景基金I期、II期及其他的投资收益为2879亿日元；第一季度愿景基金I期投资了滴滴、满帮等，愿景基金II期投资了京东物流、掌门教育、满帮和叮咚买菜。\n软银第一季度衍生品交易收入1195.1亿日元。\n软银并未在投资清单中列出脸书和Alphabet（谷歌母公司）。\n孙正义将成为愿景基金II期的联合投资人，将在愿景基金II期中投资高达26亿美元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":615762492,"gmtCreate":1653211532916,"gmtModify":1653211532916,"author":{"id":"3452481063235747","authorId":"3452481063235747","name":"贝兼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4deabb898dab8343d8b2312a02923975","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3452481063235747","authorIdStr":"3452481063235747"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"元宇宙？","listText":"元宇宙？","text":"元宇宙？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/615762492","repostId":"1168811044","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":612608358,"gmtCreate":1652290927374,"gmtModify":1652290927374,"author":{"id":"3452481063235747","authorId":"3452481063235747","name":"贝兼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4deabb898dab8343d8b2312a02923975","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3452481063235747","authorIdStr":"3452481063235747"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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