股市小民的个人主页 - 老虎社区

股市小民

股市小民

大家好

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6主题

0勋章

2021-12-03

這篇文章不錯，轉發給大家看看

@我是大夫:阿里巴巴还能好吗？

2021-12-03

這篇文章不錯，轉發給大家看看

@美股解毒师:今年Q3的小米，绝非19年那个后发制人的小米

2021-12-03

這篇文章不錯，轉發給大家看看

@投资理财吉米:PayPal虎落平阳白捡机会？

2021-02-19

大家參考

@路人甲同学:快手待3年，股票3000万！

2020-12-09

那要開始放空了嗎？會不會反而大虧？

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-06-29

相信阿里

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-03-20

可以买了吗？

2020-03-06

还要跌多少？跌到怕了

2020-02-21

看好我的阿里巴巴$阿里巴巴(BABA)$

2020-02-20

阿里巴巴跌得好吓人

2020-02-14

阿里看起来情况很不错

2020-02-12

开始涨了，应该可以准备进场了

2020-01-30

电动车的时候来了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-01-30

怎么又变得不好了？不是涨回来了吗？

2020-01-29

这才是硬道理：走好自己的每一步，少玩一些速朽的噱头，关注用户的核心关切，为用户创造长期价值。

抱歉，原内容已删除

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"htmlText":"這篇文章不錯，轉發給大家看看","listText":"這篇文章不錯，轉發給大家看看","text":"這篇文章不錯，轉發給大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601156705","repostId":"872620346","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":872620346,"gmtCreate":1637508241953,"gmtModify":1637549963808,"author":{"id":"3451725711716572","authorId":"3451725711716572","name":"我是大夫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fcd00e92ccccb5a053f3719276231bc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451725711716572","authorIdStr":"3451725711716572"},"themes":[],"title":"阿里巴巴还能好吗？","htmlText":"看完阿里最新一季财报后，感觉表现不好。没有发现什么刻意隐藏利润的举动，但确实注意到一些调整，包括战略上和策略上。 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毛利率下降到35%，以往都在40%以上。毛利率本质上反映了客户对产品和服务的依赖程度。毛利率下降意味着阿里对商家的竞争优势被削弱。 核心商业部分调整后EBITA利润率从去年的35%降到19%，不调整的话是从24%下降到15%；绝对值是从309亿降至256亿，这一部分去年同期股权激励125亿，今年只有50亿，如果激励多一些会更难看。 研发费用和行政费用分别下降了4%和3%，而营销费用增长了3%，只能说阿里目前确实是在勒紧裤腰带过日子。 菜鸟增长20%，不知道为什么一下子这么低。 云计算增长33%。相对于亚马逊、微软、谷歌的云计算体量和增速，阿里云只能算差强人意，国内容联云的增速都44%。阿里云在调整后才能盈利，用巴菲特的话说，股权激励如果不作为支出，又该放在哪呢？ 好的方面 年活用户同比增长14%，创八个季度新高；国内和境外用户分别增长4000万和2200万人，考虑本身已经很高的基数，这个增长着实不错。而且，获客成本下降至829元，是2019年以来的最低水平，说明砸下去的钱起了作用。 淘特用户增至2.4亿，是增量客户的主要来源；社区商业平台（淘菜菜GMV环比增长150%，说明阿里的下沉策略是有效的。 29万个品牌参与了今年的双十一，而去年是25万个；今年双十一的用户45%是90后或00后，00后的用户数增长了25%。天猫仍然是品牌阵地，对Z世代群体","text":"看完阿里最新一季财报后，感觉表现不好。没有发现什么刻意隐藏利润的举动，但确实注意到一些调整，包括战略上和策略上。 不好的方面 营收增速29%，剔除高鑫零售只有16%；客户管理收入（广告费和佣金）只有3%，也就是说阿里目前唯一能贡献实际利润的部分跌到史上最低。 GMV个位数增长。按照武卫的意思，不给商家减负，客户管理收入和GMV增速总体是同步的，由此反推GMV增长可能在5%-9%这个区间。淘系电商核心阵地美妆服饰增长缓慢应该是主因。 毛利率下降到35%，以往都在40%以上。毛利率本质上反映了客户对产品和服务的依赖程度。毛利率下降意味着阿里对商家的竞争优势被削弱。 核心商业部分调整后EBITA利润率从去年的35%降到19%，不调整的话是从24%下降到15%；绝对值是从309亿降至256亿，这一部分去年同期股权激励125亿，今年只有50亿，如果激励多一些会更难看。 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target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 大跌其实并不意外，因为市场对21年Q3这份财报的期待本来就很低。二级市场其实早早地就开始反应，只是当真的面对这样的结果时，投资者仍然觉得投资小米的性价比不高。 这份财报究竟告诉了我们什么？ 如果用乐观的眼光来看，有两点是值得肯定的——一个是毛利率提升；另一个是以MIUI为基础的互联网服务业务增长喜人。 小米的毛利率在这个季度继续上涨，其实它也是芯片等原材料上涨周期中的受益者。虽然财报中也说明，一定程度上的季节性促销让利因素消失也提振了毛利率，但更重要的还是原材料与成品的价格差导致的。因为在会计报表上的“先进先出”原则，会一定程度在原材料涨价周期给硬件成品生产商一定的“毛利润加速”时期。 另一点，则是由于高端机型的售卖超过以往。其中海外部分占了很大比例。今年前3个月，全球中高端手机全球出货量将近1800万台，而2020年全年则1000万台。这也让智能手机整体平均出货价同比增长6.6%。终端售价上升，成本又是按低的算，自然毛利率提升明显。只不过这也的数据给未来几个季度同时带来压力。当原材料价格回归正常之后，毛利率水平可能有一定回落。 当然，比起硬件部分，互联网服务一直是小米更愿意讲的故事。Q3的互联网服务业务总营收73亿元，同比+27%，其中广告收入在几个广告巨头增速下降的时候，依然保持了45%的同比增长；游戏收入同比增长25%。这些都与小米MIUI月活跃用户提高相关，至Q3末，MIUI用户达到4.86亿，同比增长32%。 而剩下的就是非常平庸或者无法满足投资者期待的部分 手机出货量下降，让出全球出货量老二的位置； IOT业务受到原材料短缺、全球海运堵塞的影响，增长也没有预期高； 利润率受投资收益的影响也大幅下滑；即便不算这部分的损失","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 大跌其实并不意外，因为市场对21年Q3这份财报的期待本来就很低。二级市场其实早早地就开始反应，只是当真的面对这样的结果时，投资者仍然觉得投资小米的性价比不高。 这份财报究竟告诉了我们什么？ 如果用乐观的眼光来看，有两点是值得肯定的——一个是毛利率提升；另一个是以MIUI为基础的互联网服务业务增长喜人。 小米的毛利率在这个季度继续上涨，其实它也是芯片等原材料上涨周期中的受益者。虽然财报中也说明，一定程度上的季节性促销让利因素消失也提振了毛利率，但更重要的还是原材料与成品的价格差导致的。因为在会计报表上的“先进先出”原则，会一定程度在原材料涨价周期给硬件成品生产商一定的“毛利润加速”时期。 另一点，则是由于高端机型的售卖超过以往。其中海外部分占了很大比例。今年前3个月，全球中高端手机全球出货量将近1800万台，而2020年全年则1000万台。这也让智能手机整体平均出货价同比增长6.6%。终端售价上升，成本又是按低的算，自然毛利率提升明显。只不过这也的数据给未来几个季度同时带来压力。当原材料价格回归正常之后，毛利率水平可能有一定回落。 当然，比起硬件部分，互联网服务一直是小米更愿意讲的故事。Q3的互联网服务业务总营收73亿元，同比+27%，其中广告收入在几个广告巨头增速下降的时候，依然保持了45%的同比增长；游戏收入同比增长25%。这些都与小米MIUI月活跃用户提高相关，至Q3末，MIUI用户达到4.86亿，同比增长32%。 而剩下的就是非常平庸或者无法满足投资者期待的部分 手机出货量下降，让出全球出货量老二的位置； IOT业务受到原材料短缺、全球海运堵塞的影响，增长也没有预期高； 利润率受投资收益的影响也大幅下滑；即便不算这部分的损失","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ 大跌其实并不意外，因为市场对21年Q3这份财报的期待本来就很低。二级市场其实早早地就开始反应，只是当真的面对这样的结果时，投资者仍然觉得投资小米的性价比不高。 这份财报究竟告诉了我们什么？ 如果用乐观的眼光来看，有两点是值得肯定的——一个是毛利率提升；另一个是以MIUI为基础的互联网服务业务增长喜人。 小米的毛利率在这个季度继续上涨，其实它也是芯片等原材料上涨周期中的受益者。虽然财报中也说明，一定程度上的季节性促销让利因素消失也提振了毛利率，但更重要的还是原材料与成品的价格差导致的。因为在会计报表上的“先进先出”原则，会一定程度在原材料涨价周期给硬件成品生产商一定的“毛利润加速”时期。 另一点，则是由于高端机型的售卖超过以往。其中海外部分占了很大比例。今年前3个月，全球中高端手机全球出货量将近1800万台，而2020年全年则1000万台。这也让智能手机整体平均出货价同比增长6.6%。终端售价上升，成本又是按低的算，自然毛利率提升明显。只不过这也的数据给未来几个季度同时带来压力。当原材料价格回归正常之后，毛利率水平可能有一定回落。 当然，比起硬件部分，互联网服务一直是小米更愿意讲的故事。Q3的互联网服务业务总营收73亿元，同比+27%，其中广告收入在几个广告巨头增速下降的时候，依然保持了45%的同比增长；游戏收入同比增长25%。这些都与小米MIUI月活跃用户提高相关，至Q3末，MIUI用户达到4.86亿，同比增长32%。 而剩下的就是非常平庸或者无法满足投资者期待的部分 手机出货量下降，让出全球出货量老二的位置； IOT业务受到原材料短缺、全球海运堵塞的影响，增长也没有预期高； 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白捡机会？","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$</a>&nbsp;PayPal曾经的优质科技蓝筹股，3个月下跌了40%，是跌出了黄金坑，还是不再具有投资价值？前言01PayPal最近可谓是赚足了眼球。曾经以稳定成长著称的优质股，最近突然淘气了起来。先是传闻要收购自身难保的Pinterest，PayPal股价因此下跌了10%。后来公司又跳出来辟谣，说不收购了，股价没有止跌反而又下降了10%。接下来，反垄断又盯上了PayPal，投资者还没反应过来，紧接着PayPal财报又暴雷了。股价再次跌超10%。短短三个月的时间，PayPal股价一泻千里，市值蒸发了近4成。面对这种情况，给投资者也整不会了。曾经优质的蓝筹股怎么就虎落平阳了？有人认为，这是优质蓝筹股跌出了黄金坑，可以无脑买入了。也有人认为，这是PayPal基本面发生了改变，已经彻底丧失了投资价值。美投君自己也一直持有PayPal这只股票，最近的下跌也一度让我充满困惑。直到最近，我塌下心来，对PayPal这家公司做了彻底的研究。我终于有了一个明确的答案。这里，咱也不卖关子了，开门见山。这么说吧，PayPal这家公司差是真的差，近期股价下跌个30%一点儿也不冤枉他，他再跌个10%我也一点不惊讶。但他好也是真的好，他还有一个你根本想象不到的巨大潜力没有释放。一旦放出来，股价一飞冲天是迟早的事，他的爆发力比起现在大火的电动车也丝毫不落下风。我这么说，绝不是耸人听闻，待各位看官听完我接下来的分析，就能明白我为什么这么说了。PayPal是怎样的一家公司？02在分析这家公司前，我觉得还是有必要先跟大家简单介绍一下PayPal这家公司。PayPal的名字你肯定熟悉，但他做的事情你却不一定了解。PayPal诞生于1998年，最初的名字叫做confinity，从","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$</a>&nbsp;PayPal曾经的优质科技蓝筹股，3个月下跌了40%，是跌出了黄金坑，还是不再具有投资价值？前言01PayPal最近可谓是赚足了眼球。曾经以稳定成长著称的优质股，最近突然淘气了起来。先是传闻要收购自身难保的Pinterest，PayPal股价因此下跌了10%。后来公司又跳出来辟谣，说不收购了，股价没有止跌反而又下降了10%。接下来，反垄断又盯上了PayPal，投资者还没反应过来，紧接着PayPal财报又暴雷了。股价再次跌超10%。短短三个月的时间，PayPal股价一泻千里，市值蒸发了近4成。面对这种情况，给投资者也整不会了。曾经优质的蓝筹股怎么就虎落平阳了？有人认为，这是优质蓝筹股跌出了黄金坑，可以无脑买入了。也有人认为，这是PayPal基本面发生了改变，已经彻底丧失了投资价值。美投君自己也一直持有PayPal这只股票，最近的下跌也一度让我充满困惑。直到最近，我塌下心来，对PayPal这家公司做了彻底的研究。我终于有了一个明确的答案。这里，咱也不卖关子了，开门见山。这么说吧，PayPal这家公司差是真的差，近期股价下跌个30%一点儿也不冤枉他，他再跌个10%我也一点不惊讶。但他好也是真的好，他还有一个你根本想象不到的巨大潜力没有释放。一旦放出来，股价一飞冲天是迟早的事，他的爆发力比起现在大火的电动车也丝毫不落下风。我这么说，绝不是耸人听闻，待各位看官听完我接下来的分析，就能明白我为什么这么说了。PayPal是怎样的一家公司？02在分析这家公司前，我觉得还是有必要先跟大家简单介绍一下PayPal这家公司。PayPal的名字你肯定熟悉，但他做的事情你却不一定了解。PayPal诞生于1998年，最初的名字叫做confinity，从","text":"$PayPal(PYPL)$ PayPal曾经的优质科技蓝筹股，3个月下跌了40%，是跌出了黄金坑，还是不再具有投资价值？前言01PayPal最近可谓是赚足了眼球。曾经以稳定成长著称的优质股，最近突然淘气了起来。先是传闻要收购自身难保的Pinterest，PayPal股价因此下跌了10%。后来公司又跳出来辟谣，说不收购了，股价没有止跌反而又下降了10%。接下来，反垄断又盯上了PayPal，投资者还没反应过来，紧接着PayPal财报又暴雷了。股价再次跌超10%。短短三个月的时间，PayPal股价一泻千里，市值蒸发了近4成。面对这种情况，给投资者也整不会了。曾经优质的蓝筹股怎么就虎落平阳了？有人认为，这是优质蓝筹股跌出了黄金坑，可以无脑买入了。也有人认为，这是PayPal基本面发生了改变，已经彻底丧失了投资价值。美投君自己也一直持有PayPal这只股票，最近的下跌也一度让我充满困惑。直到最近，我塌下心来，对PayPal这家公司做了彻底的研究。我终于有了一个明确的答案。这里，咱也不卖关子了，开门见山。这么说吧，PayPal这家公司差是真的差，近期股价下跌个30%一点儿也不冤枉他，他再跌个10%我也一点不惊讶。但他好也是真的好，他还有一个你根本想象不到的巨大潜力没有释放。一旦放出来，股价一飞冲天是迟早的事，他的爆发力比起现在大火的电动车也丝毫不落下风。我这么说，绝不是耸人听闻，待各位看官听完我接下来的分析，就能明白我为什么这么说了。PayPal是怎样的一家公司？02在分析这家公司前，我觉得还是有必要先跟大家简单介绍一下PayPal这家公司。PayPal的名字你肯定熟悉，但他做的事情你却不一定了解。PayPal诞生于1998年，最初的名字叫做confinity，从","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1aa5c4ea731ba4743d17d2c5d3c4f410","width":"688","height":"292"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f1daab1c7aa5dd00977817c3ab2e464","width":"560","height":"360"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5abb285405a898f4873baf95fde072e0","width":"688","height":"421"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872768282","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2520,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":387347565,"gmtCreate":1613724342557,"gmtModify":1613724342557,"author":{"id":"3452127935919207","authorId":"3452127935919207","name":"股市小民","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f51d690edb61fc7c4aa73cba69139ae6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3452127935919207","authorIdStr":"3452127935919207"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"大家參考","listText":"大家參考","text":"大家參考","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387347565","repostId":"389114926","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":389114926,"gmtCreate":1612702680000,"gmtModify":1703764439345,"author":{"id":"3522826217161950","authorId":"3522826217161950","name":"路人甲同学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9973a74b77dfb9239d32b08df1b51313","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3522826217161950","authorIdStr":"3522826217161950"},"themes":[],"title":"快手待3年，股票3000万！","htmlText":"阅读本文大概需要8分钟。 最近不是快手上市了吗，今天中午吃完饭无意中刷了下，看见股价简直逆天了： 快手上市价格已经很高了，没想到上了后还能涨160%！1.23万亿市值也是厉害了，接近1600亿美金！ 突然想起来一个在快手做技术管理的哥们，2017年左右入职的，于是赶紧问问他财富自由没： 3000万！真是没想到，这个人生效率的确太赞了。虽然有点小嫉妒但更多是为他感到开心。 他17年去的快手，当时快手才几百人，公司估值不到40亿美金。这哥们除了快手还拿到了百度阿里的Offer，相比之下快手的薪资不到大厂的2/3，但快手给了一些期权。 当时也问过我的意见，考虑到他已经工作好多年了，我给的建议是有期权且看好这家公司就值得去冒险下。谁能想到三年之后这些期权就价值3000万？ 看了看快手招股书：4551名快手公司员工认购5.24亿B类股份，人均持股11.5万，此外还有4546名非快手在职员工认购3.21亿相关股份。后一部分应该是离职保留的期权，总之人均股份都到了几百万美金。 如果快手股价能坚挺到半年后，相信这上万人就可以把五道口附近的房价再推高到一个档位了。 互联网行业真是一个造富的行业，前阵子的蚂蚁金服要不是遭遇点插曲，估计市值更高。而快手就在一年前估值也不过几百亿美金，这一下翻了好几倍。 很多读者也问过我：程序员如何逆袭，如何实现财务自由？今天也给大家一些硬核的建议： 程序员逆袭达到财务自由有以下几条路： 1、加入独角兽公司，拿到大量期权，并坚守到上市套现。 2、找到靠谱的创业公司和诚信的创始人，拿到百分比左右的股份，坚守到出售或者上市。 3、通过技术创业，公司出售或者上市。 4、建立影响力，通过技术咨询、自媒体、技术入股等方式实现财富自由。 5、经历长时间职场竞争，最终成长为公司高管，通过股份实现财富自由。 6、积累一定的原始资本，通过投资理财（炒股、btc、投资朋友公司）致富发","listText":"阅读本文大概需要8分钟。 最近不是快手上市了吗，今天中午吃完饭无意中刷了下，看见股价简直逆天了： 快手上市价格已经很高了，没想到上了后还能涨160%！1.23万亿市值也是厉害了，接近1600亿美金！ 突然想起来一个在快手做技术管理的哥们，2017年左右入职的，于是赶紧问问他财富自由没： 3000万！真是没想到，这个人生效率的确太赞了。虽然有点小嫉妒但更多是为他感到开心。 他17年去的快手，当时快手才几百人，公司估值不到40亿美金。这哥们除了快手还拿到了百度阿里的Offer，相比之下快手的薪资不到大厂的2/3，但快手给了一些期权。 当时也问过我的意见，考虑到他已经工作好多年了，我给的建议是有期权且看好这家公司就值得去冒险下。谁能想到三年之后这些期权就价值3000万？ 看了看快手招股书：4551名快手公司员工认购5.24亿B类股份，人均持股11.5万，此外还有4546名非快手在职员工认购3.21亿相关股份。后一部分应该是离职保留的期权，总之人均股份都到了几百万美金。 如果快手股价能坚挺到半年后，相信这上万人就可以把五道口附近的房价再推高到一个档位了。 互联网行业真是一个造富的行业，前阵子的蚂蚁金服要不是遭遇点插曲，估计市值更高。而快手就在一年前估值也不过几百亿美金，这一下翻了好几倍。 很多读者也问过我：程序员如何逆袭，如何实现财务自由？今天也给大家一些硬核的建议： 程序员逆袭达到财务自由有以下几条路： 1、加入独角兽公司，拿到大量期权，并坚守到上市套现。 2、找到靠谱的创业公司和诚信的创始人，拿到百分比左右的股份，坚守到出售或者上市。 3、通过技术创业，公司出售或者上市。 4、建立影响力，通过技术咨询、自媒体、技术入股等方式实现财富自由。 5、经历长时间职场竞争，最终成长为公司高管，通过股份实现财富自由。 6、积累一定的原始资本，通过投资理财（炒股、btc、投资朋友公司）致富发","text":"阅读本文大概需要8分钟。 最近不是快手上市了吗，今天中午吃完饭无意中刷了下，看见股价简直逆天了： 快手上市价格已经很高了，没想到上了后还能涨160%！1.23万亿市值也是厉害了，接近1600亿美金！ 突然想起来一个在快手做技术管理的哥们，2017年左右入职的，于是赶紧问问他财富自由没： 3000万！真是没想到，这个人生效率的确太赞了。虽然有点小嫉妒但更多是为他感到开心。 他17年去的快手，当时快手才几百人，公司估值不到40亿美金。这哥们除了快手还拿到了百度阿里的Offer，相比之下快手的薪资不到大厂的2/3，但快手给了一些期权。 当时也问过我的意见，考虑到他已经工作好多年了，我给的建议是有期权且看好这家公司就值得去冒险下。谁能想到三年之后这些期权就价值3000万？ 看了看快手招股书：4551名快手公司员工认购5.24亿B类股份，人均持股11.5万，此外还有4546名非快手在职员工认购3.21亿相关股份。后一部分应该是离职保留的期权，总之人均股份都到了几百万美金。 如果快手股价能坚挺到半年后，相信这上万人就可以把五道口附近的房价再推高到一个档位了。 互联网行业真是一个造富的行业，前阵子的蚂蚁金服要不是遭遇点插曲，估计市值更高。而快手就在一年前估值也不过几百亿美金，这一下翻了好几倍。 很多读者也问过我：程序员如何逆袭，如何实现财务自由？今天也给大家一些硬核的建议： 程序员逆袭达到财务自由有以下几条路： 1、加入独角兽公司，拿到大量期权，并坚守到上市套现。 2、找到靠谱的创业公司和诚信的创始人，拿到百分比左右的股份，坚守到出售或者上市。 3、通过技术创业，公司出售或者上市。 4、建立影响力，通过技术咨询、自媒体、技术入股等方式实现财富自由。 5、经历长时间职场竞争，最终成长为公司高管，通过股份实现财富自由。 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