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2020-11-28

$维珍银河(SPCE)$有点不太对，下周先跑了。

2020-11-09

已成定局是你的定局吧？

拜登当选将如何影响美股、A股？券商这样分析

2020-09-17

应该不会批准，现在美国寻求的是同等待遇，外资品牌进中国需要成立中资51%的公司。那么同样，这里也要51%

美媒：特朗普将在24至36小时内决定TikTok交易案

2017-11-09

大单买入真多

$AMD(AMD)$大单好多。

大单买入真多

2017-10-23

花旗又开始唱空了

$AMD(AMD)$花旗

花旗又开始唱空了

2017-10-03

发生了什么

$AMD(AMD)$？？？？突然这么强势

发生了什么

2017-05-23

大家说说这波能到多少？

$高通(QCOM)$大家说说这波能到多少？

大家说说这波能到多少？

2017-04-20

大家猜猜这波财报能涨到多少？

$高通(QCOM)$大家猜猜这波财报能涨到多少？我猜测58左右。

大家猜猜这波财报能涨到多少？

2017-04-17

跌起来倒是挺快，涨起来死慢

$高通(QCOM)$哎

跌起来倒是挺快，涨起来死慢

2017-03-18

最后几分钟什么情况

$Advanced Micro Devices Inc.(AMD)$最后几分钟的大单。。。。。。。好几个股票都一样，高通，苹果等。

最后几分钟什么情况

2017-03-17

今天缩量啊

$Advanced Micro Devices Inc.(AMD)$盘前几乎没有交易。

今天缩量啊

2017-03-16

今天r5发布了

$Advanced Micro Devices Inc.(AMD)$发表于：在今天的AMD技术大会上，AMD正式发布了Ryzen 5处理器，同时公布了Ryzen 5的国行版价格，根据AMD官方的消息，国行版本的Ryzen 5处理器售价从1299元起步，最高为1999元，4月11日正式发售。以下是四款国行Ryzen 5处理器的参数以及售价：Ryzen 5 1600X：6核12线程，3.6G/4.0GHz，1999元人民币Ryzen 5 1600：6核12线程，3.2G/3.6GHz，1749元人民币Ryzen 5 1500X：4核8线程，3.5G/3.7GHz，1499元人民币Ryzen 5 1400：4核8线程，3.2G/3.4GHz，1299元人民币AMD Ryzen 5处理器将会在4月11日正式发售。

今天r5发布了

2017-03-15

果然大盘股

$高通(QCOM)$半死不活的，跟着大盘走

果然大盘股

2017-03-13

还有人吗

$高通(QCOM)$没人关注啊。慢慢涨也行啊。希望别加息一下子缩回去了。

2017-03-13

希望慢慢涨

$Advanced Micro Devices Inc.(AMD)$慢慢涨吧。

希望慢慢涨

2017-03-03

利好出尽就是利空。

$Advanced Micro Devices Inc.(AMD)$长期持有吧。

利好出尽就是利空。

2017-03-02

在看评测，性能完爆intel

$Advanced Micro Devices Inc.(AMD)$性能全面超越i7，价格还便宜。

在看评测，性能完爆intel

2017-02-28

$Advanced Micro Devices Inc.(AMD)$不看了，睡觉，反正买的正股。今天芯片都差不多的跌幅，vpnv，intel，高通。不知道出啥事了。

2017-02-28

$高通(QCOM)$这股票太没人气了。看看换手率。好几天低于1%了。

2017-02-28

$Advanced Micro Devices Inc.(AMD)$15是压力位啊，来回震撼。

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">$维珍银河(SPCE)$</a>有点不太对，下周先跑了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">$维珍银河(SPCE)$</a>有点不太对，下周先跑了。","text":"$维珍银河(SPCE)$有点不太对，下周先跑了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391832864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5311,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3522332348029722","authorId":"3522332348029722","name":"未来的老头","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6289a173fb1691106093385c78a58272","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3522332348029722","authorIdStr":"3522332348029722"},"content":"黄金坑跑什么嘛","text":"黄金坑跑什么嘛","html":"黄金坑跑什么嘛"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":305970179,"gmtCreate":1604894457791,"gmtModify":1703834987807,"author":{"id":"3450869040473364","authorId":"3450869040473364","name":"缘来无情","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3450869040473364","authorIdStr":"3450869040473364"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"已成定局是你的定局吧？","listText":"已成定局是你的定局吧？","text":"已成定局是你的定局吧？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/305970179","repostId":"1174043548","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174043548","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1604884738,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174043548?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-09 09:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"拜登当选将如何影响美股、A股？券商这样分析","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174043548","media":"金融界","summary":"据美媒体统计，民主党总统候选人拜登在2020年美国总统选举中已获得超过270张选举人票。包括美联社、华尔街日报、路透社、CNN等在内的多家媒体称，拜登赢得了此次大选。\n不过，美国现任总统、共和党总统候","content":"<p>据美媒体统计，民主党总统候选人拜登在2020年美国总统选举中已获得超过270张选举人票。包括美联社、华尔街日报、路透社、CNN等在内的多家媒体称，拜登赢得了此次大选。</p>\n<p>不过，美国现任总统、共和党总统候选人特朗普却表示选举远没有结束，我们的竞选团队也将提出合理、合法的法律挑战，而这有可能决定最后的胜利者。</p>\n<p>似乎美国大选的剧情将被拉长，“选举日”可能会变成“选举周”甚至“选举月”，那么，如果事态按当前逻辑发展，拜登成为第46任美国总统。</p>\n<p>如今，资本市场迎来新的一个交易周，这一事件将如何影响美股、A股呢？</p>\n<p>北京时间11月9日早间，美股三大股指期货集体高开，纳指期货涨0.64%，道指期货涨0.53%，标普500指数期货涨0.55%。随后美股股指期货扩大涨幅，其中，纳指期货涨超1%。</p>\n<p><b>一图看懂施政纲领区别：</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0011c39b0d7daee54690c288dcee206\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"508\"></p>\n<p><b>对美股影响几何？</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000750\">国海证券</a>分析称，拜登、特朗普的两人施政纲领泾渭分明，对资本市场的影响也大不相同。该机构从四个方面解析了影响：</p>\n<p>首先在税收方面，与特朗普减税带来的 2017 年美股牛市不同，当下拜登提议增加公司税、资本利得税，会挤压美国公司股东权益，美股的人气将受影响。而拜登设法堵住避税漏洞，特别会对海外收入占大头，并利用税收抵扣制度（如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>）和避税天堂（如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>在爱尔兰）进行避税的各大美股科技公司形成明显冲击。上述科技公司占美股市值的权重较大，或带动美股指数明显震荡。</p>\n<p>第二，在工资方面，拜登要将最低工资标准翻倍，将显著推升雇佣人数多、但员工工资水平较低的企业的用工成本，如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">沃尔玛</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">麦当劳</a>等零售、餐饮企业。</p>\n<p>在医疗方面，拜登计划进行美版“带量采购”，压低美国药品售价，同时引入海外企业竞争，打击美国制药企业垄断特权，更加不利于美国制药企业的股价表现，但有利于中国、印度等其他国家的医药企业进入美国市场。</p>\n<p>在基建方面，拜登强调对“清洁能源”方面的资金投入，抛弃特朗普偏爱的化石能源，对全球的新能源行业形成利好，而愈加严格的环保措施，将使美国石油天然气板块承压。相比于拜登，特朗普似乎更偏好投资5G、太空科技，若特朗普连任，上述板块或许有较好表现。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">东吴证券</a>则主要以拜登的加税计划作为切入点，分析了影响。</p>\n<p>东吴证券认为，首先，拜登的加税计划将把2017年特朗普《减税和就业法案》（TCJA）从 35％降至 21％的税率重新提高一半。 2018 年美国企业超过一半的 EPS 增长都来自于 TCJA 减税的影响。 预计拜登的加税政策将会使2021 财年标普 500 的 EPS 增速与目前预期相比将降低约 12％。</p>\n<p>其次，根据标普 500 的官方统计和对于各行业 2017-2018 年期间 EPS 增长情况的分析， 对于税收变化最为敏感的行业是科技、金融和材料。目前为止，疫情和美国财政刺激带来的影响仍然主导着美国市场，而加税政策如果真正实施，对市场涨幅的实质性影响预计在 2021 年体现。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8f6164537ddf0d87b4ea9aba9d57f05\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"350\"></p>\n<p>同时东吴证券表示，拜登的其他政策主张对行业股价表现的实质性影响尚未体现，比如其支持医药和新能源行业。</p>\n<p>除此之外，该机构分析称，拜登获胜不会影响美国市场的长期发展：长期来看美股的业绩增长和收益相对大多数其他资产类别仍有较强的吸引力。比如，1977 年以来，美国资本利得税和个人所得税上调后，居民权益资产配置占可支配收入的比例反而有所增加。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601162\">天风证券</a>分析称，短期内，大选结果的最终落地都有利于全球风险偏好的回升。拜登获胜，民主党人主导的大规模财政刺激计划落地预期将会提振市场情绪；</p>\n<p>中长期内，对待税收的态度及利率变化是关键变量。拜登逆袭，美国政府进入加税周期，财政赤字减少下对通胀容忍度下降，美联储可能提前结束降息周期，这对美股的 EPS及估值均可能造成杀伤。</p>\n<p>民生证券分析称，拜登当选对美国股市偏积极：（1）财政支持带来的经济增长效应大于加税的负面效应（税收只是财富再分配的问题），花出去的钱最终去了实体部门，变成企业和居民的存款，人民财富增加，带动经济向好，长期有利于美国经济，“美国股市作为经济的晴雨表”，股市偏积极；（2）拜登执政确定性增加，有利投资者信心和风险偏好，有利股市投机行为；（3） 美联储仍然会维持低利率放水加码量化宽松，有利于股市；（4）高收入人群和公司是税收增加的主要群体，可能会压制股市和分红收入，暂时对股价有小幅度比如个位数冲击。</p>\n<p>就美股的结构而言，民主党政策更加偏好新能源、医药生物、TMT 等硅谷新兴产业，这些股票有望延续强势，其中，由于新能源和全球化产业链的政策环境改善，上涨弹性更大。同时，由于两党形成共识，对加大国家主导下基础及前沿科技投入、振兴本土制造业和重塑产业链的“新共识”正在逐步形成，科技研发与产业链建设的投入显著提升，有助提振全球核心技术公司的估值和业绩。</p>\n<p>中航证券分析称，短期来看，拜登获胜对美股有短期偏空的影响。中长期角度，美国扩张型财政政策和宽松的货币政策基调已形成，大选结果对美股中长期影响不大。在拜登获胜的情景下，我们对影响较为严重的美国行业及公司进行了汇总。整体来看，拜登在竞选中提出的主要观点将会对美国金融板块、能源板块、TMT 板块和医疗板块产生一定的负面影响，其中医疗板块相比其他三个板块表现较为中性，有利好因素存在。</p>\n<p><b>对A股影响几何？</b></p>\n<p>天风证券表示，拜登逆袭， 民主党主导的大规模财政刺激计划大概率最终落地，这也符合当前市场预期甚至可能超出预期，对A股整体的风险偏好可能有所提振。</p>\n<p>拜登获胜，美国政府将重新进入到加税周期，财政赤字将会重新收敛，政府对通胀水平的容忍度将会下降，美联储可能会提前终结降息周期，这极有可能对加大当前资产泡沫的压力， A 股同样会面临较大的调整压力。</p>\n<p>拜登上台， 加税倾向下利率的重新回升同样会对资产泡沫形成压力，特别是针对外资偏好度较高的核心资产而言。一旦政府对通胀容忍度下降、 美联储提前结束降息周期，回升的宏观贴现率将压低白马股为代表的核心资产的理论估值水平， A 股可能也要面临一定的调整压力。</p>\n<p>从行业结构来看，新能源产业链、偏消费类的出口行业、仿制药等行业将获得更舒适的发展环境。</p>\n<p>第一，科技板块未来分化可能会加剧， 传统互联网巨头可能面临业务分拆和调整压力， 建议重点关注新能源全产业链。</p>\n<p>新能源产业链中，光伏、风电、新能源车有望率先受益。一方面，在绿色能源计划下，拜登将加大<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">太阳能</a>电池板与风力涡轮机的建设，全球光伏风电的装机需求同步提升。</p>\n<p>另一方面， A股新能源汽车产业链也有望迎来渗透率加速提升阶段。</p>\n<p>第二，拜登对特朗普利用关税进行贸易摩擦的否定态度以及只希望关键制造业回流，将推动贸易摩擦的暂时休兵，这将推动在贸易摩擦重压下受损的行业业绩修复，其中消费属性强的板块有望更受益于美国中产阶级的崛起。</p>\n<p>从 2020 年中报申万二级行业海外营收占比来看，超过 50％以上的行业家电行业（视听器材、白色家电）、电子（电子制造、光学光电子、元件、其他电子）、化工（塑料、化学 纤维）、机械设备（金属制品、通用机械）、纺织服装（纺织制造）、轻工（包装印刷）、有色（稀有金属）、电气设备（电机），是其中，消费属性较强的主要是视听器材、白色家电、塑料、纺织制造、包装印刷、化学纤维。</p>\n<p>第三，拜登针对美国医药龙头垄断打压，有利于国内医药类企业扩大市场份额，其中仿制药可能会优先受益。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002500\">山西证券</a>表示，拜登的政策主张中，新能源是重点，因此在拜登政府之下，新能源将是受益程度比较大的行业。</p>\n<p>拜登当选将利好在 2018-2019 年中美贸易争端中受损的行业与公司。</p>\n<p>当然，中美科技竞争将会长期存在，因此自主创新和国产替代将是我国在科技领域的主基调，政策持续利好，包括半导体集成电路、国产软件、 5G 及云计算。</p>","source":"jinrongjie_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>拜登当选将如何影响美股、A股？券商这样分析</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n拜登当选将如何影响美股、A股？券商这样分析\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-09 09:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1682836539435974712&wfr=spider&for=pc><strong>金融界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>据美媒体统计，民主党总统候选人拜登在2020年美国总统选举中已获得超过270张选举人票。包括美联社、华尔街日报、路透社、CNN等在内的多家媒体称，拜登赢得了此次大选。\n不过，美国现任总统、共和党总统候选人特朗普却表示选举远没有结束，我们的竞选团队也将提出合理、合法的法律挑战，而这有可能决定最后的胜利者。\n似乎美国大选的剧情将被拉长，“选举日”可能会变成“选举周”甚至“选举月”，那么，如果事态按当前...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1682836539435974712&wfr=spider&for=pc\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0713e680d25ea3c3fdd98bcaad9b231d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","000001.SH":"上证指数",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1682836539435974712&wfr=spider&for=pc","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174043548","content_text":"据美媒体统计，民主党总统候选人拜登在2020年美国总统选举中已获得超过270张选举人票。包括美联社、华尔街日报、路透社、CNN等在内的多家媒体称，拜登赢得了此次大选。\n不过，美国现任总统、共和党总统候选人特朗普却表示选举远没有结束，我们的竞选团队也将提出合理、合法的法律挑战，而这有可能决定最后的胜利者。\n似乎美国大选的剧情将被拉长，“选举日”可能会变成“选举周”甚至“选举月”，那么，如果事态按当前逻辑发展，拜登成为第46任美国总统。\n如今，资本市场迎来新的一个交易周，这一事件将如何影响美股、A股呢？\n北京时间11月9日早间，美股三大股指期货集体高开，纳指期货涨0.64%，道指期货涨0.53%，标普500指数期货涨0.55%。随后美股股指期货扩大涨幅，其中，纳指期货涨超1%。\n一图看懂施政纲领区别：\n\n对美股影响几何？\n国海证券分析称，拜登、特朗普的两人施政纲领泾渭分明，对资本市场的影响也大不相同。该机构从四个方面解析了影响：\n首先在税收方面，与特朗普减税带来的 2017 年美股牛市不同，当下拜登提议增加公司税、资本利得税，会挤压美国公司股东权益，美股的人气将受影响。而拜登设法堵住避税漏洞，特别会对海外收入占大头，并利用税收抵扣制度（如亚马逊）和避税天堂（如苹果和谷歌在爱尔兰）进行避税的各大美股科技公司形成明显冲击。上述科技公司占美股市值的权重较大，或带动美股指数明显震荡。\n第二，在工资方面，拜登要将最低工资标准翻倍，将显著推升雇佣人数多、但员工工资水平较低的企业的用工成本，如沃尔玛、麦当劳等零售、餐饮企业。\n在医疗方面，拜登计划进行美版“带量采购”，压低美国药品售价，同时引入海外企业竞争，打击美国制药企业垄断特权，更加不利于美国制药企业的股价表现，但有利于中国、印度等其他国家的医药企业进入美国市场。\n在基建方面，拜登强调对“清洁能源”方面的资金投入，抛弃特朗普偏爱的化石能源，对全球的新能源行业形成利好，而愈加严格的环保措施，将使美国石油天然气板块承压。相比于拜登，特朗普似乎更偏好投资5G、太空科技，若特朗普连任，上述板块或许有较好表现。\n东吴证券则主要以拜登的加税计划作为切入点，分析了影响。\n东吴证券认为，首先，拜登的加税计划将把2017年特朗普《减税和就业法案》（TCJA）从 35％降至 21％的税率重新提高一半。 2018 年美国企业超过一半的 EPS 增长都来自于 TCJA 减税的影响。 预计拜登的加税政策将会使2021 财年标普 500 的 EPS 增速与目前预期相比将降低约 12％。\n其次，根据标普 500 的官方统计和对于各行业 2017-2018 年期间 EPS 增长情况的分析， 对于税收变化最为敏感的行业是科技、金融和材料。目前为止，疫情和美国财政刺激带来的影响仍然主导着美国市场，而加税政策如果真正实施，对市场涨幅的实质性影响预计在 2021 年体现。\n\n同时东吴证券表示，拜登的其他政策主张对行业股价表现的实质性影响尚未体现，比如其支持医药和新能源行业。\n除此之外，该机构分析称，拜登获胜不会影响美国市场的长期发展：长期来看美股的业绩增长和收益相对大多数其他资产类别仍有较强的吸引力。比如，1977 年以来，美国资本利得税和个人所得税上调后，居民权益资产配置占可支配收入的比例反而有所增加。\n天风证券分析称，短期内，大选结果的最终落地都有利于全球风险偏好的回升。拜登获胜，民主党人主导的大规模财政刺激计划落地预期将会提振市场情绪；\n中长期内，对待税收的态度及利率变化是关键变量。拜登逆袭，美国政府进入加税周期，财政赤字减少下对通胀容忍度下降，美联储可能提前结束降息周期，这对美股的 EPS及估值均可能造成杀伤。\n民生证券分析称，拜登当选对美国股市偏积极：（1）财政支持带来的经济增长效应大于加税的负面效应（税收只是财富再分配的问题），花出去的钱最终去了实体部门，变成企业和居民的存款，人民财富增加，带动经济向好，长期有利于美国经济，“美国股市作为经济的晴雨表”，股市偏积极；（2）拜登执政确定性增加，有利投资者信心和风险偏好，有利股市投机行为；（3） 美联储仍然会维持低利率放水加码量化宽松，有利于股市；（4）高收入人群和公司是税收增加的主要群体，可能会压制股市和分红收入，暂时对股价有小幅度比如个位数冲击。\n就美股的结构而言，民主党政策更加偏好新能源、医药生物、TMT 等硅谷新兴产业，这些股票有望延续强势，其中，由于新能源和全球化产业链的政策环境改善，上涨弹性更大。同时，由于两党形成共识，对加大国家主导下基础及前沿科技投入、振兴本土制造业和重塑产业链的“新共识”正在逐步形成，科技研发与产业链建设的投入显著提升，有助提振全球核心技术公司的估值和业绩。\n中航证券分析称，短期来看，拜登获胜对美股有短期偏空的影响。中长期角度，美国扩张型财政政策和宽松的货币政策基调已形成，大选结果对美股中长期影响不大。在拜登获胜的情景下，我们对影响较为严重的美国行业及公司进行了汇总。整体来看，拜登在竞选中提出的主要观点将会对美国金融板块、能源板块、TMT 板块和医疗板块产生一定的负面影响，其中医疗板块相比其他三个板块表现较为中性，有利好因素存在。\n对A股影响几何？\n天风证券表示，拜登逆袭， 民主党主导的大规模财政刺激计划大概率最终落地，这也符合当前市场预期甚至可能超出预期，对A股整体的风险偏好可能有所提振。\n拜登获胜，美国政府将重新进入到加税周期，财政赤字将会重新收敛，政府对通胀水平的容忍度将会下降，美联储可能会提前终结降息周期，这极有可能对加大当前资产泡沫的压力， A 股同样会面临较大的调整压力。\n拜登上台， 加税倾向下利率的重新回升同样会对资产泡沫形成压力，特别是针对外资偏好度较高的核心资产而言。一旦政府对通胀容忍度下降、 美联储提前结束降息周期，回升的宏观贴现率将压低白马股为代表的核心资产的理论估值水平， A 股可能也要面临一定的调整压力。\n从行业结构来看，新能源产业链、偏消费类的出口行业、仿制药等行业将获得更舒适的发展环境。\n第一，科技板块未来分化可能会加剧， 传统互联网巨头可能面临业务分拆和调整压力， 建议重点关注新能源全产业链。\n新能源产业链中，光伏、风电、新能源车有望率先受益。一方面，在绿色能源计划下，拜登将加大太阳能电池板与风力涡轮机的建设，全球光伏风电的装机需求同步提升。\n另一方面， A股新能源汽车产业链也有望迎来渗透率加速提升阶段。\n第二，拜登对特朗普利用关税进行贸易摩擦的否定态度以及只希望关键制造业回流，将推动贸易摩擦的暂时休兵，这将推动在贸易摩擦重压下受损的行业业绩修复，其中消费属性强的板块有望更受益于美国中产阶级的崛起。\n从 2020 年中报申万二级行业海外营收占比来看，超过 50％以上的行业家电行业（视听器材、白色家电）、电子（电子制造、光学光电子、元件、其他电子）、化工（塑料、化学 纤维）、机械设备（金属制品、通用机械）、纺织服装（纺织制造）、轻工（包装印刷）、有色（稀有金属）、电气设备（电机），是其中，消费属性较强的主要是视听器材、白色家电、塑料、纺织制造、包装印刷、化学纤维。\n第三，拜登针对美国医药龙头垄断打压，有利于国内医药类企业扩大市场份额，其中仿制药可能会优先受益。\n山西证券表示，拜登的政策主张中，新能源是重点，因此在拜登政府之下，新能源将是受益程度比较大的行业。\n拜登当选将利好在 2018-2019 年中美贸易争端中受损的行业与公司。\n当然，中美科技竞争将会长期存在，因此自主创新和国产替代将是我国在科技领域的主基调，政策持续利好，包括半导体集成电路、国产软件、 5G 及云计算。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1769,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":972777127,"gmtCreate":1600355124269,"gmtModify":1703821367297,"author":{"id":"3450869040473364","authorId":"3450869040473364","name":"缘来无情","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3450869040473364","authorIdStr":"3450869040473364"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;应该不会批准，现在美国寻求的是同等待遇，外资品牌进中国需要成立中资51%的公司。那么同样，这里也要51%","listText":"&nbsp;应该不会批准，现在美国寻求的是同等待遇，外资品牌进中国需要成立中资51%的公司。那么同样，这里也要51%","text":"应该不会批准，现在美国寻求的是同等待遇，外资品牌进中国需要成立中资51%的公司。那么同样，这里也要51%","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/972777127","repostId":"1125093869","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125093869","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1600354560,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1125093869?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-09-17 22:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美媒：特朗普将在24至36小时内决定TikTok交易案","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125093869","media":"环球网","summary":"此举不涉及TikTok出售，也不涉及其核心技术转让。","content":"<p>9月17日晚间消息，知情人士告诉CNBC，预计美国总统特朗普将在未来24至36小时内就TikTok在美命运作出决定。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bff0eed9e3e93944a76dc4ab3dc226ec\" tg-width=\"1081\" tg-height=\"422\"></p><p>此外，据消息人士透露，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">沃尔玛</a>预计还将与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>公司合作，甲骨文将拥有TikTok约20%的股份。</p><p>据CNBC此前消息，特朗普在16日的白宫新闻记者会上称，他不喜欢目前甲骨文与TikTok目前拟定的合作协议，原因是TikTok的美国业务不会出售给甲骨文，而且他还被告知，美国财政部将无法从这次交易中拿到补偿。</p><p>此前，特朗普曾多次公开表示，无论<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>还是其他公司在完成与TikTok的交易后，相当大一部分钱必须交给美国财政部作为促成交易的补偿。这一说法引发外界巨大争议。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a681c25e468e64e85ba62c47cc5749b\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"416\"></p><p>本月14日，TikTok向美国政府提交解决方案。据媒体披露，美国甲骨文公司将为TikTok提供云服务，此举不涉及TikTok出售，也不涉及其核心技术转让。</p><p>中国外交部发言人汪文斌14日在谈及TikTok美国业务出售问题时表示，中方已多次就&nbsp;TikTok问题阐明立场，TikTok在美遭遇的围猎，是典型的政府胁迫交易。</p><p>汪文斌指出，美国个别政客一方面鼓吹要实现公平对等，构建所谓的“清洁网络”，另一方面却又在拿不出任何证据的情况下，泛化国家安全概念，滥用国家力量，对某一领域取得领先优势的非美国企业进行无理打压和百般胁迫，这充分暴露了美方少数政客强取豪夺的真实用意和经济霸凌的丑陋面目。</p>","source":"hqw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美媒：特朗普将在24至36小时内决定TikTok交易案</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美媒：特朗普将在24至36小时内决定TikTok交易案\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-09-17 22:56 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://world.huanqiu.com/article/3zvLQxyMp9r><strong>环球网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>9月17日晚间消息，知情人士告诉CNBC，预计美国总统特朗普将在未来24至36小时内就TikTok在美命运作出决定。此外，据消息人士透露，沃尔玛预计还将与甲骨文公司合作，甲骨文将拥有TikTok约20%的股份。据CNBC此前消息，特朗普在16日的白宫新闻记者会上称，他不喜欢目前甲骨文与TikTok目前拟定的合作协议，原因是TikTok的美国业务不会出售给甲骨文，而且他还被告知，美国财政部将无法从...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://world.huanqiu.com/article/3zvLQxyMp9r\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/228c7c204eb8b32674a0256f903e2fb3","relate_stocks":{"ORCL":"甲骨文"},"source_url":"https://world.huanqiu.com/article/3zvLQxyMp9r","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125093869","content_text":"9月17日晚间消息，知情人士告诉CNBC，预计美国总统特朗普将在未来24至36小时内就TikTok在美命运作出决定。此外，据消息人士透露，沃尔玛预计还将与甲骨文公司合作，甲骨文将拥有TikTok约20%的股份。据CNBC此前消息，特朗普在16日的白宫新闻记者会上称，他不喜欢目前甲骨文与TikTok目前拟定的合作协议，原因是TikTok的美国业务不会出售给甲骨文，而且他还被告知，美国财政部将无法从这次交易中拿到补偿。此前，特朗普曾多次公开表示，无论微软还是其他公司在完成与TikTok的交易后，相当大一部分钱必须交给美国财政部作为促成交易的补偿。这一说法引发外界巨大争议。本月14日，TikTok向美国政府提交解决方案。据媒体披露，美国甲骨文公司将为TikTok提供云服务，此举不涉及TikTok出售，也不涉及其核心技术转让。中国外交部发言人汪文斌14日在谈及TikTok美国业务出售问题时表示，中方已多次就 TikTok问题阐明立场，TikTok在美遭遇的围猎，是典型的政府胁迫交易。汪文斌指出，美国个别政客一方面鼓吹要实现公平对等，构建所谓的“清洁网络”，另一方面却又在拿不出任何证据的情况下，泛化国家安全概念，滥用国家力量，对某一领域取得领先优势的非美国企业进行无理打压和百般胁迫，这充分暴露了美方少数政客强取豪夺的真实用意和经济霸凌的丑陋面目。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3558529685925795","authorId":"3558529685925795","name":"打垮华尔街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578ac994ad69614ee393c7c08aca3a38","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3558529685925795","authorIdStr":"3558529685925795"},"content":"有很多不是好吧，特斯拉百分之百外资","text":"有很多不是好吧，特斯拉百分之百外资","html":"有很多不是好吧，特斯拉百分之百外资"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":112849,"gmtCreate":1510239129072,"gmtModify":1704883462897,"author":{"id":"3450869040473364","authorId":"3450869040473364","name":"缘来无情","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3450869040473364","authorIdStr":"3450869040473364"},"themes":[],"title":"大单买入真多","htmlText":"$AMD(AMD)$大单好多。","listText":"$AMD(AMD)$大单好多。","text":"$AMD(AMD)$大单好多。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112849","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":104925,"gmtCreate":1508765994521,"gmtModify":1704882505979,"author":{"id":"3450869040473364","authorId":"3450869040473364","name":"缘来无情","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3450869040473364","authorIdStr":"3450869040473364"},"themes":[],"title":"花旗又开始唱空了","htmlText":"$AMD(AMD)$花旗","listText":"$AMD(AMD)$花旗","text":"$AMD(AMD)$花旗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104925","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2930,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":100078,"gmtCreate":1507042869418,"gmtModify":1704881888435,"author":{"id":"3450869040473364","authorId":"3450869040473364","name":"缘来无情","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3450869040473364","authorIdStr":"3450869040473364"},"themes":[],"title":"发生了什么","htmlText":"$AMD(AMD)$？？？？突然这么强势","listText":"$AMD(AMD)$？？？？突然这么强势","text":"$AMD(AMD)$？？？？突然这么强势","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100078","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2788,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3458695823402200","authorId":"3458695823402200","name":"天龍人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3458695823402200","authorIdStr":"3458695823402200"},"content":"Ryzen 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Inc.(AMD)$15是压力位啊，来回震撼。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/46338","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":987,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":972777127,"gmtCreate":1600355124269,"gmtModify":1703821367297,"author":{"id":"3450869040473364","authorId":"3450869040473364","name":"缘来无情","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3450869040473364","authorIdStr":"3450869040473364"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;应该不会批准，现在美国寻求的是同等待遇，外资品牌进中国需要成立中资51%的公司。那么同样，这里也要51%","listText":"&nbsp;应该不会批准，现在美国寻求的是同等待遇，外资品牌进中国需要成立中资51%的公司。那么同样，这里也要51%","text":"应该不会批准，现在美国寻求的是同等待遇，外资品牌进中国需要成立中资51%的公司。那么同样，这里也要51%","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/972777127","repostId":"1125093869","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125093869","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1600354560,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1125093869?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-09-17 22:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美媒：特朗普将在24至36小时内决定TikTok交易案","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125093869","media":"环球网","summary":"此举不涉及TikTok出售，也不涉及其核心技术转让。","content":"<p>9月17日晚间消息，知情人士告诉CNBC，预计美国总统特朗普将在未来24至36小时内就TikTok在美命运作出决定。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bff0eed9e3e93944a76dc4ab3dc226ec\" tg-width=\"1081\" tg-height=\"422\"></p><p>此外，据消息人士透露，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">沃尔玛</a>预计还将与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>公司合作，甲骨文将拥有TikTok约20%的股份。</p><p>据CNBC此前消息，特朗普在16日的白宫新闻记者会上称，他不喜欢目前甲骨文与TikTok目前拟定的合作协议，原因是TikTok的美国业务不会出售给甲骨文，而且他还被告知，美国财政部将无法从这次交易中拿到补偿。</p><p>此前，特朗普曾多次公开表示，无论<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>还是其他公司在完成与TikTok的交易后，相当大一部分钱必须交给美国财政部作为促成交易的补偿。这一说法引发外界巨大争议。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a681c25e468e64e85ba62c47cc5749b\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"416\"></p><p>本月14日，TikTok向美国政府提交解决方案。据媒体披露，美国甲骨文公司将为TikTok提供云服务，此举不涉及TikTok出售，也不涉及其核心技术转让。</p><p>中国外交部发言人汪文斌14日在谈及TikTok美国业务出售问题时表示，中方已多次就&nbsp;TikTok问题阐明立场，TikTok在美遭遇的围猎，是典型的政府胁迫交易。</p><p>汪文斌指出，美国个别政客一方面鼓吹要实现公平对等，构建所谓的“清洁网络”，另一方面却又在拿不出任何证据的情况下，泛化国家安全概念，滥用国家力量，对某一领域取得领先优势的非美国企业进行无理打压和百般胁迫，这充分暴露了美方少数政客强取豪夺的真实用意和经济霸凌的丑陋面目。</p>","source":"hqw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美媒：特朗普将在24至36小时内决定TikTok交易案</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美媒：特朗普将在24至36小时内决定TikTok交易案\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-09-17 22:56 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://world.huanqiu.com/article/3zvLQxyMp9r><strong>环球网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>9月17日晚间消息，知情人士告诉CNBC，预计美国总统特朗普将在未来24至36小时内就TikTok在美命运作出决定。此外，据消息人士透露，沃尔玛预计还将与甲骨文公司合作，甲骨文将拥有TikTok约20%的股份。据CNBC此前消息，特朗普在16日的白宫新闻记者会上称，他不喜欢目前甲骨文与TikTok目前拟定的合作协议，原因是TikTok的美国业务不会出售给甲骨文，而且他还被告知，美国财政部将无法从...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://world.huanqiu.com/article/3zvLQxyMp9r\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/228c7c204eb8b32674a0256f903e2fb3","relate_stocks":{"ORCL":"甲骨文"},"source_url":"https://world.huanqiu.com/article/3zvLQxyMp9r","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125093869","content_text":"9月17日晚间消息，知情人士告诉CNBC，预计美国总统特朗普将在未来24至36小时内就TikTok在美命运作出决定。此外，据消息人士透露，沃尔玛预计还将与甲骨文公司合作，甲骨文将拥有TikTok约20%的股份。据CNBC此前消息，特朗普在16日的白宫新闻记者会上称，他不喜欢目前甲骨文与TikTok目前拟定的合作协议，原因是TikTok的美国业务不会出售给甲骨文，而且他还被告知，美国财政部将无法从这次交易中拿到补偿。此前，特朗普曾多次公开表示，无论微软还是其他公司在完成与TikTok的交易后，相当大一部分钱必须交给美国财政部作为促成交易的补偿。这一说法引发外界巨大争议。本月14日，TikTok向美国政府提交解决方案。据媒体披露，美国甲骨文公司将为TikTok提供云服务，此举不涉及TikTok出售，也不涉及其核心技术转让。中国外交部发言人汪文斌14日在谈及TikTok美国业务出售问题时表示，中方已多次就 TikTok问题阐明立场，TikTok在美遭遇的围猎，是典型的政府胁迫交易。汪文斌指出，美国个别政客一方面鼓吹要实现公平对等，构建所谓的“清洁网络”，另一方面却又在拿不出任何证据的情况下，泛化国家安全概念，滥用国家力量，对某一领域取得领先优势的非美国企业进行无理打压和百般胁迫，这充分暴露了美方少数政客强取豪夺的真实用意和经济霸凌的丑陋面目。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3558529685925795","authorId":"3558529685925795","name":"打垮华尔街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578ac994ad69614ee393c7c08aca3a38","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3558529685925795","authorIdStr":"3558529685925795"},"content":"有很多不是好吧，特斯拉百分之百外资","text":"有很多不是好吧，特斯拉百分之百外资","html":"有很多不是好吧，特斯拉百分之百外资"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":49326,"gmtCreate":1489653307884,"gmtModify":1704875686722,"author":{"id":"3450869040473364","authorId":"3450869040473364","name":"缘来无情","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3450869040473364","authorIdStr":"3450869040473364"},"themes":[],"title":"今天r5发布了","htmlText":"$Advanced 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Inc.(AMD)$最后几分钟的大单。。。。。。。好几个股票都一样，高通，苹果等。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/49815","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3450869040473364","authorId":"3450869040473364","name":"缘来无情","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3450869040473364","authorIdStr":"3450869040473364"},"content":"看到一则消息 今天是三月的第三个星期五，美股迎来每季度一次的四巫日，股指期货、期权，个股期货、期权将于今天同时到期，随着市场交易量的增加，日内波动料将加大，关注指数区间波动的可能。","text":"看到一则消息 今天是三月的第三个星期五，美股迎来每季度一次的四巫日，股指期货、期权，个股期货、期权将于今天同时到期，随着市场交易量的增加，日内波动料将加大，关注指数区间波动的可能。","html":"看到一则消息 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Micro Devices Inc.(AMD)$15是压力位啊，来回震撼。","listText":"$Advanced Micro Devices Inc.(AMD)$15是压力位啊，来回震撼。","text":"$Advanced Micro Devices Inc.(AMD)$15是压力位啊，来回震撼。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/46338","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":987,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":46114,"gmtCreate":1487952274902,"gmtModify":1704875275986,"author":{"id":"3450869040473364","authorId":"3450869040473364","name":"缘来无情","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3450869040473364","authorIdStr":"3450869040473364"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$高通(QCOM)$高通最近太没人气了，上下1%来回震撼。真无聊。换手率奇低。","listText":"$高通(QCOM)$高通最近太没人气了，上下1%来回震撼。真无聊。换手率奇低。","text":"$高通(QCOM)$高通最近太没人气了，上下1%来回震撼。真无聊。换手率奇低。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/46114","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":778,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"73660005843360","authorId":"73660005843360","name":"闪光飞鹰","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/70a9d86ba8447a33df741ec3e88bcf3a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"73660005843360","authorIdStr":"73660005843360"},"content":"大家对收购有点没底呀","text":"大家对收购有点没底呀","html":"大家对收购有点没底呀"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":305970179,"gmtCreate":1604894457791,"gmtModify":1703834987807,"author":{"id":"3450869040473364","authorId":"3450869040473364","name":"缘来无情","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3450869040473364","authorIdStr":"3450869040473364"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"已成定局是你的定局吧？","listText":"已成定局是你的定局吧？","text":"已成定局是你的定局吧？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/305970179","repostId":"1174043548","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174043548","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1604884738,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174043548?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-09 09:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"拜登当选将如何影响美股、A股？券商这样分析","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174043548","media":"金融界","summary":"据美媒体统计，民主党总统候选人拜登在2020年美国总统选举中已获得超过270张选举人票。包括美联社、华尔街日报、路透社、CNN等在内的多家媒体称，拜登赢得了此次大选。\n不过，美国现任总统、共和党总统候","content":"<p>据美媒体统计，民主党总统候选人拜登在2020年美国总统选举中已获得超过270张选举人票。包括美联社、华尔街日报、路透社、CNN等在内的多家媒体称，拜登赢得了此次大选。</p>\n<p>不过，美国现任总统、共和党总统候选人特朗普却表示选举远没有结束，我们的竞选团队也将提出合理、合法的法律挑战，而这有可能决定最后的胜利者。</p>\n<p>似乎美国大选的剧情将被拉长，“选举日”可能会变成“选举周”甚至“选举月”，那么，如果事态按当前逻辑发展，拜登成为第46任美国总统。</p>\n<p>如今，资本市场迎来新的一个交易周，这一事件将如何影响美股、A股呢？</p>\n<p>北京时间11月9日早间，美股三大股指期货集体高开，纳指期货涨0.64%，道指期货涨0.53%，标普500指数期货涨0.55%。随后美股股指期货扩大涨幅，其中，纳指期货涨超1%。</p>\n<p><b>一图看懂施政纲领区别：</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0011c39b0d7daee54690c288dcee206\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"508\"></p>\n<p><b>对美股影响几何？</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000750\">国海证券</a>分析称，拜登、特朗普的两人施政纲领泾渭分明，对资本市场的影响也大不相同。该机构从四个方面解析了影响：</p>\n<p>首先在税收方面，与特朗普减税带来的 2017 年美股牛市不同，当下拜登提议增加公司税、资本利得税，会挤压美国公司股东权益，美股的人气将受影响。而拜登设法堵住避税漏洞，特别会对海外收入占大头，并利用税收抵扣制度（如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>）和避税天堂（如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>在爱尔兰）进行避税的各大美股科技公司形成明显冲击。上述科技公司占美股市值的权重较大，或带动美股指数明显震荡。</p>\n<p>第二，在工资方面，拜登要将最低工资标准翻倍，将显著推升雇佣人数多、但员工工资水平较低的企业的用工成本，如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">沃尔玛</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">麦当劳</a>等零售、餐饮企业。</p>\n<p>在医疗方面，拜登计划进行美版“带量采购”，压低美国药品售价，同时引入海外企业竞争，打击美国制药企业垄断特权，更加不利于美国制药企业的股价表现，但有利于中国、印度等其他国家的医药企业进入美国市场。</p>\n<p>在基建方面，拜登强调对“清洁能源”方面的资金投入，抛弃特朗普偏爱的化石能源，对全球的新能源行业形成利好，而愈加严格的环保措施，将使美国石油天然气板块承压。相比于拜登，特朗普似乎更偏好投资5G、太空科技，若特朗普连任，上述板块或许有较好表现。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">东吴证券</a>则主要以拜登的加税计划作为切入点，分析了影响。</p>\n<p>东吴证券认为，首先，拜登的加税计划将把2017年特朗普《减税和就业法案》（TCJA）从 35％降至 21％的税率重新提高一半。 2018 年美国企业超过一半的 EPS 增长都来自于 TCJA 减税的影响。 预计拜登的加税政策将会使2021 财年标普 500 的 EPS 增速与目前预期相比将降低约 12％。</p>\n<p>其次，根据标普 500 的官方统计和对于各行业 2017-2018 年期间 EPS 增长情况的分析， 对于税收变化最为敏感的行业是科技、金融和材料。目前为止，疫情和美国财政刺激带来的影响仍然主导着美国市场，而加税政策如果真正实施，对市场涨幅的实质性影响预计在 2021 年体现。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8f6164537ddf0d87b4ea9aba9d57f05\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"350\"></p>\n<p>同时东吴证券表示，拜登的其他政策主张对行业股价表现的实质性影响尚未体现，比如其支持医药和新能源行业。</p>\n<p>除此之外，该机构分析称，拜登获胜不会影响美国市场的长期发展：长期来看美股的业绩增长和收益相对大多数其他资产类别仍有较强的吸引力。比如，1977 年以来，美国资本利得税和个人所得税上调后，居民权益资产配置占可支配收入的比例反而有所增加。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601162\">天风证券</a>分析称，短期内，大选结果的最终落地都有利于全球风险偏好的回升。拜登获胜，民主党人主导的大规模财政刺激计划落地预期将会提振市场情绪；</p>\n<p>中长期内，对待税收的态度及利率变化是关键变量。拜登逆袭，美国政府进入加税周期，财政赤字减少下对通胀容忍度下降，美联储可能提前结束降息周期，这对美股的 EPS及估值均可能造成杀伤。</p>\n<p>民生证券分析称，拜登当选对美国股市偏积极：（1）财政支持带来的经济增长效应大于加税的负面效应（税收只是财富再分配的问题），花出去的钱最终去了实体部门，变成企业和居民的存款，人民财富增加，带动经济向好，长期有利于美国经济，“美国股市作为经济的晴雨表”，股市偏积极；（2）拜登执政确定性增加，有利投资者信心和风险偏好，有利股市投机行为；（3） 美联储仍然会维持低利率放水加码量化宽松，有利于股市；（4）高收入人群和公司是税收增加的主要群体，可能会压制股市和分红收入，暂时对股价有小幅度比如个位数冲击。</p>\n<p>就美股的结构而言，民主党政策更加偏好新能源、医药生物、TMT 等硅谷新兴产业，这些股票有望延续强势，其中，由于新能源和全球化产业链的政策环境改善，上涨弹性更大。同时，由于两党形成共识，对加大国家主导下基础及前沿科技投入、振兴本土制造业和重塑产业链的“新共识”正在逐步形成，科技研发与产业链建设的投入显著提升，有助提振全球核心技术公司的估值和业绩。</p>\n<p>中航证券分析称，短期来看，拜登获胜对美股有短期偏空的影响。中长期角度，美国扩张型财政政策和宽松的货币政策基调已形成，大选结果对美股中长期影响不大。在拜登获胜的情景下，我们对影响较为严重的美国行业及公司进行了汇总。整体来看，拜登在竞选中提出的主要观点将会对美国金融板块、能源板块、TMT 板块和医疗板块产生一定的负面影响，其中医疗板块相比其他三个板块表现较为中性，有利好因素存在。</p>\n<p><b>对A股影响几何？</b></p>\n<p>天风证券表示，拜登逆袭， 民主党主导的大规模财政刺激计划大概率最终落地，这也符合当前市场预期甚至可能超出预期，对A股整体的风险偏好可能有所提振。</p>\n<p>拜登获胜，美国政府将重新进入到加税周期，财政赤字将会重新收敛，政府对通胀水平的容忍度将会下降，美联储可能会提前终结降息周期，这极有可能对加大当前资产泡沫的压力， A 股同样会面临较大的调整压力。</p>\n<p>拜登上台， 加税倾向下利率的重新回升同样会对资产泡沫形成压力，特别是针对外资偏好度较高的核心资产而言。一旦政府对通胀容忍度下降、 美联储提前结束降息周期，回升的宏观贴现率将压低白马股为代表的核心资产的理论估值水平， A 股可能也要面临一定的调整压力。</p>\n<p>从行业结构来看，新能源产业链、偏消费类的出口行业、仿制药等行业将获得更舒适的发展环境。</p>\n<p>第一，科技板块未来分化可能会加剧， 传统互联网巨头可能面临业务分拆和调整压力， 建议重点关注新能源全产业链。</p>\n<p>新能源产业链中，光伏、风电、新能源车有望率先受益。一方面，在绿色能源计划下，拜登将加大<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">太阳能</a>电池板与风力涡轮机的建设，全球光伏风电的装机需求同步提升。</p>\n<p>另一方面， A股新能源汽车产业链也有望迎来渗透率加速提升阶段。</p>\n<p>第二，拜登对特朗普利用关税进行贸易摩擦的否定态度以及只希望关键制造业回流，将推动贸易摩擦的暂时休兵，这将推动在贸易摩擦重压下受损的行业业绩修复，其中消费属性强的板块有望更受益于美国中产阶级的崛起。</p>\n<p>从 2020 年中报申万二级行业海外营收占比来看，超过 50％以上的行业家电行业（视听器材、白色家电）、电子（电子制造、光学光电子、元件、其他电子）、化工（塑料、化学 纤维）、机械设备（金属制品、通用机械）、纺织服装（纺织制造）、轻工（包装印刷）、有色（稀有金属）、电气设备（电机），是其中，消费属性较强的主要是视听器材、白色家电、塑料、纺织制造、包装印刷、化学纤维。</p>\n<p>第三，拜登针对美国医药龙头垄断打压，有利于国内医药类企业扩大市场份额，其中仿制药可能会优先受益。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002500\">山西证券</a>表示，拜登的政策主张中，新能源是重点，因此在拜登政府之下，新能源将是受益程度比较大的行业。</p>\n<p>拜登当选将利好在 2018-2019 年中美贸易争端中受损的行业与公司。</p>\n<p>当然，中美科技竞争将会长期存在，因此自主创新和国产替代将是我国在科技领域的主基调，政策持续利好，包括半导体集成电路、国产软件、 5G 及云计算。</p>","source":"jinrongjie_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>拜登当选将如何影响美股、A股？券商这样分析</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n拜登当选将如何影响美股、A股？券商这样分析\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-09 09:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1682836539435974712&wfr=spider&for=pc><strong>金融界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>据美媒体统计，民主党总统候选人拜登在2020年美国总统选举中已获得超过270张选举人票。包括美联社、华尔街日报、路透社、CNN等在内的多家媒体称，拜登赢得了此次大选。\n不过，美国现任总统、共和党总统候选人特朗普却表示选举远没有结束，我们的竞选团队也将提出合理、合法的法律挑战，而这有可能决定最后的胜利者。\n似乎美国大选的剧情将被拉长，“选举日”可能会变成“选举周”甚至“选举月”，那么，如果事态按当前...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1682836539435974712&wfr=spider&for=pc\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0713e680d25ea3c3fdd98bcaad9b231d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","000001.SH":"上证指数",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1682836539435974712&wfr=spider&for=pc","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174043548","content_text":"据美媒体统计，民主党总统候选人拜登在2020年美国总统选举中已获得超过270张选举人票。包括美联社、华尔街日报、路透社、CNN等在内的多家媒体称，拜登赢得了此次大选。\n不过，美国现任总统、共和党总统候选人特朗普却表示选举远没有结束，我们的竞选团队也将提出合理、合法的法律挑战，而这有可能决定最后的胜利者。\n似乎美国大选的剧情将被拉长，“选举日”可能会变成“选举周”甚至“选举月”，那么，如果事态按当前逻辑发展，拜登成为第46任美国总统。\n如今，资本市场迎来新的一个交易周，这一事件将如何影响美股、A股呢？\n北京时间11月9日早间，美股三大股指期货集体高开，纳指期货涨0.64%，道指期货涨0.53%，标普500指数期货涨0.55%。随后美股股指期货扩大涨幅，其中，纳指期货涨超1%。\n一图看懂施政纲领区别：\n\n对美股影响几何？\n国海证券分析称，拜登、特朗普的两人施政纲领泾渭分明，对资本市场的影响也大不相同。该机构从四个方面解析了影响：\n首先在税收方面，与特朗普减税带来的 2017 年美股牛市不同，当下拜登提议增加公司税、资本利得税，会挤压美国公司股东权益，美股的人气将受影响。而拜登设法堵住避税漏洞，特别会对海外收入占大头，并利用税收抵扣制度（如亚马逊）和避税天堂（如苹果和谷歌在爱尔兰）进行避税的各大美股科技公司形成明显冲击。上述科技公司占美股市值的权重较大，或带动美股指数明显震荡。\n第二，在工资方面，拜登要将最低工资标准翻倍，将显著推升雇佣人数多、但员工工资水平较低的企业的用工成本，如沃尔玛、麦当劳等零售、餐饮企业。\n在医疗方面，拜登计划进行美版“带量采购”，压低美国药品售价，同时引入海外企业竞争，打击美国制药企业垄断特权，更加不利于美国制药企业的股价表现，但有利于中国、印度等其他国家的医药企业进入美国市场。\n在基建方面，拜登强调对“清洁能源”方面的资金投入，抛弃特朗普偏爱的化石能源，对全球的新能源行业形成利好，而愈加严格的环保措施，将使美国石油天然气板块承压。相比于拜登，特朗普似乎更偏好投资5G、太空科技，若特朗普连任，上述板块或许有较好表现。\n东吴证券则主要以拜登的加税计划作为切入点，分析了影响。\n东吴证券认为，首先，拜登的加税计划将把2017年特朗普《减税和就业法案》（TCJA）从 35％降至 21％的税率重新提高一半。 2018 年美国企业超过一半的 EPS 增长都来自于 TCJA 减税的影响。 预计拜登的加税政策将会使2021 财年标普 500 的 EPS 增速与目前预期相比将降低约 12％。\n其次，根据标普 500 的官方统计和对于各行业 2017-2018 年期间 EPS 增长情况的分析， 对于税收变化最为敏感的行业是科技、金融和材料。目前为止，疫情和美国财政刺激带来的影响仍然主导着美国市场，而加税政策如果真正实施，对市场涨幅的实质性影响预计在 2021 年体现。\n\n同时东吴证券表示，拜登的其他政策主张对行业股价表现的实质性影响尚未体现，比如其支持医药和新能源行业。\n除此之外，该机构分析称，拜登获胜不会影响美国市场的长期发展：长期来看美股的业绩增长和收益相对大多数其他资产类别仍有较强的吸引力。比如，1977 年以来，美国资本利得税和个人所得税上调后，居民权益资产配置占可支配收入的比例反而有所增加。\n天风证券分析称，短期内，大选结果的最终落地都有利于全球风险偏好的回升。拜登获胜，民主党人主导的大规模财政刺激计划落地预期将会提振市场情绪；\n中长期内，对待税收的态度及利率变化是关键变量。拜登逆袭，美国政府进入加税周期，财政赤字减少下对通胀容忍度下降，美联储可能提前结束降息周期，这对美股的 EPS及估值均可能造成杀伤。\n民生证券分析称，拜登当选对美国股市偏积极：（1）财政支持带来的经济增长效应大于加税的负面效应（税收只是财富再分配的问题），花出去的钱最终去了实体部门，变成企业和居民的存款，人民财富增加，带动经济向好，长期有利于美国经济，“美国股市作为经济的晴雨表”，股市偏积极；（2）拜登执政确定性增加，有利投资者信心和风险偏好，有利股市投机行为；（3） 美联储仍然会维持低利率放水加码量化宽松，有利于股市；（4）高收入人群和公司是税收增加的主要群体，可能会压制股市和分红收入，暂时对股价有小幅度比如个位数冲击。\n就美股的结构而言，民主党政策更加偏好新能源、医药生物、TMT 等硅谷新兴产业，这些股票有望延续强势，其中，由于新能源和全球化产业链的政策环境改善，上涨弹性更大。同时，由于两党形成共识，对加大国家主导下基础及前沿科技投入、振兴本土制造业和重塑产业链的“新共识”正在逐步形成，科技研发与产业链建设的投入显著提升，有助提振全球核心技术公司的估值和业绩。\n中航证券分析称，短期来看，拜登获胜对美股有短期偏空的影响。中长期角度，美国扩张型财政政策和宽松的货币政策基调已形成，大选结果对美股中长期影响不大。在拜登获胜的情景下，我们对影响较为严重的美国行业及公司进行了汇总。整体来看，拜登在竞选中提出的主要观点将会对美国金融板块、能源板块、TMT 板块和医疗板块产生一定的负面影响，其中医疗板块相比其他三个板块表现较为中性，有利好因素存在。\n对A股影响几何？\n天风证券表示，拜登逆袭， 民主党主导的大规模财政刺激计划大概率最终落地，这也符合当前市场预期甚至可能超出预期，对A股整体的风险偏好可能有所提振。\n拜登获胜，美国政府将重新进入到加税周期，财政赤字将会重新收敛，政府对通胀水平的容忍度将会下降，美联储可能会提前终结降息周期，这极有可能对加大当前资产泡沫的压力， A 股同样会面临较大的调整压力。\n拜登上台， 加税倾向下利率的重新回升同样会对资产泡沫形成压力，特别是针对外资偏好度较高的核心资产而言。一旦政府对通胀容忍度下降、 美联储提前结束降息周期，回升的宏观贴现率将压低白马股为代表的核心资产的理论估值水平， A 股可能也要面临一定的调整压力。\n从行业结构来看，新能源产业链、偏消费类的出口行业、仿制药等行业将获得更舒适的发展环境。\n第一，科技板块未来分化可能会加剧， 传统互联网巨头可能面临业务分拆和调整压力， 建议重点关注新能源全产业链。\n新能源产业链中，光伏、风电、新能源车有望率先受益。一方面，在绿色能源计划下，拜登将加大太阳能电池板与风力涡轮机的建设，全球光伏风电的装机需求同步提升。\n另一方面， A股新能源汽车产业链也有望迎来渗透率加速提升阶段。\n第二，拜登对特朗普利用关税进行贸易摩擦的否定态度以及只希望关键制造业回流，将推动贸易摩擦的暂时休兵，这将推动在贸易摩擦重压下受损的行业业绩修复，其中消费属性强的板块有望更受益于美国中产阶级的崛起。\n从 2020 年中报申万二级行业海外营收占比来看，超过 50％以上的行业家电行业（视听器材、白色家电）、电子（电子制造、光学光电子、元件、其他电子）、化工（塑料、化学 纤维）、机械设备（金属制品、通用机械）、纺织服装（纺织制造）、轻工（包装印刷）、有色（稀有金属）、电气设备（电机），是其中，消费属性较强的主要是视听器材、白色家电、塑料、纺织制造、包装印刷、化学纤维。\n第三，拜登针对美国医药龙头垄断打压，有利于国内医药类企业扩大市场份额，其中仿制药可能会优先受益。\n山西证券表示，拜登的政策主张中，新能源是重点，因此在拜登政府之下，新能源将是受益程度比较大的行业。\n拜登当选将利好在 2018-2019 年中美贸易争端中受损的行业与公司。\n当然，中美科技竞争将会长期存在，因此自主创新和国产替代将是我国在科技领域的主基调，政策持续利好，包括半导体集成电路、国产软件、 5G 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