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萌萌虎

萌萌虎

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2021-03-17

为什么盘前会大跌

拼多多第四季度营收265.5亿活跃买家数达7.884亿

2021-01-13

$老虎证券(TIGR)$这韭菜割的高

2020-12-22

别说是淘宝，京东上买也会收到拼多多的物流信息的，这就叫无货原跨平台拍单发货，见怪不怪了。

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-11-21

一本正经的胡说八道，又来割韭菜。

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-11-12

慢慢来

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-11-10

$药明巨诺-B(02126)$这只股今天牛逼，V型大反转

2020-10-29

再也不用担心出入金的问题了，什么民生中信工行银行入金都太慢了被各大行都拒了，终于找了一个入金的方法，速度快手续费低。10分钟左右就可以到账了。[开心] [得意]

2020-09-24

$阳光动力(SPI)$人性的贪婪体会的淋漓尽致，一念成佛，一念成魔。

2020-09-23

$阳光动力(SPI)$真长见识了，妖股绝对的妖股[开心] [开心] [开心]

2019-01-16

$太平洋煤气电力(PCG)$诱多出货，再杀空

2018-09-14

$蔚来汽车(NIO)$停牌就是告诉老乡别走，后头还有好戏。

2018-03-23

$腾讯控股(00700)$一夜跌回解放前，又到了买入合适价位的时候啦！

2018-01-12

$腾讯控股(00700)$厉害了我的腾讯，缓慢上涨脚踏实地一步一个脚印的上行。

2018-01-11

$天地荟食品(PETZ)$这个海外宠物上市的第一股，咋这走势，烂泥扶不上墙。

2018-01-05

$蓝汛(CCIH)$我靠，这股要逆天涨的让你怀疑人生啊！太可怕啦！

2017-12-29

买对好股票，不被市场的情绪所波动比啥都重要，持股待涨。$欢聚时代(YY)$

2017-12-29

就这样吧！马马虎虎啦，守好自己手中的票比什么都重要。$微博(WB)$

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021031719030777e03346&s=b><strong>TechWeb.com.cn</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>3月17日消息，3月17日，拼多多发布2020年第四季度及全年财报。数据显示，拼多多四季度营收265.477亿元，较上一年同期增长146%；全年实现营收594.919亿元，较上一年同期增长97%。四季度净亏损13.6亿元，去年同期为净亏损17.52亿元。数据显示，拼多多平台2020年GMV为16676亿元，较2019年的10066亿元同比增长66%。第四季度商品交易总额1.67万亿元，去年同期...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021031719030777e03346&s=b\">Web 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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202012221202387a4154be&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e42c16a083ab273c19aaae21cdb697a0","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202012221202387a4154be&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2093030529","content_text":"财经网科技12月22日讯，据网易科技消息，湖北武汉张先生称，他近日在淘宝购买了原价299元（实付99元）的耳机，收货后发现与卖家图片不符，同时还收到拼多多发来的物流短信。随后他发现收到的这款耳机在拼多多上售价十几元，张先生联系商家后，对方让他退货退款。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3440540550401156","authorIdStr":"3440540550401156"},"content":"不少人在家玩这种空手套白狼游戏？打信息差？？当别人傻子吗？线下摆摊可以，网上就别这样了","text":"不少人在家玩这种空手套白狼游戏？打信息差？？当别人傻子吗？线下摆摊可以，网上就别这样了","html":"不少人在家玩这种空手套白狼游戏？打信息差？？当别人傻子吗？线下摆摊可以，网上就别这样了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":305673851,"gmtCreate":1604975161573,"gmtModify":1703835538372,"author":{"id":"3449978221816119","authorId":"3449978221816119","name":"萌萌虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6984362d660de86e9d36273dad614c1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3449978221816119","authorIdStr":"3449978221816119"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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"pubTimestamp":1605176639,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1102236185?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-12 18:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"造车新势力频频断轴失火，戳破千亿市值泡沫？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102236185","media":"未来汽车Daily","summary":"成长的烦恼。\n\n自燃、断轴、断网，造车新势力们正在遭遇前所未遇的烦恼。\n伴随着10月27日晚，北京海淀区中国科学院力学研究所内一声爆炸，威马汽车再次被推向舆论的风口浪尖。理想汽车也深陷“质量危机”。官","content":"<blockquote>\n 成长的烦恼。\n</blockquote>\n<p>自燃、断轴、断网，造车新势力们正在遭遇前所未遇的烦恼。</p>\n<p>伴随着10月27日晚，北京海淀区中国科学院力学研究所内一声爆炸，威马汽车再次被推向舆论的风口浪尖。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>也深陷“质量危机”。官方信息显示，截至10月31日，理想ONE累计发生前悬架碰撞事故97起，其中有10起出现前悬架下摆臂球头从球销脱出的情况。</p>\n<p>硬件问题频发，软件也难以幸免。前不久，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>的车机系统出现大面积断网，车机内部显示有信号但无法正常联网。事后，官方把原因归结为“运营商网络问题”，但车机系统宕机仍挑战着公众的敏感神经。</p>\n<p>据未来汽车日报不完全统计，目前已经有四家新造车企业启动过召回，除了理想，蔚来和威马曾因电池存在安全隐患发起主动召回，零跑则因仪表盘软件存在bug发起召回。四起召回共涉及车辆超过1.6万辆。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43faf8fcde290d3fc8a104c50eda7789\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"502\"><span>国内新势力车企召回情况，未来汽车日报制表</span></p>\n<p>事故频发，大众哗然，新造车的产品还“安全”吗？</p>\n<p>根据《新能源汽车产业发展规划（2021-2035年）》，预计到2025年，新能源汽车将占据新车销售总量的20%。为了抢占“钱景”如此巨大的蓝海，传统巨擘已经火力全开。眼下，遭遇“成长烦恼”的新势力车企们该如何迎战？</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>01</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>安全事故频发，谁之过？</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>诱发车辆发生安全事故的原因主要涉及质量缺陷和设计漏洞，具体原因错综复杂。一辆新能源汽车，除了电池、电机、电控等核心零部件，还涉及上万个细小零部件，每一个环节都有可能存在质量缺陷。此前丰田发起史上最大规模的召回，主要原因就是安全带以及电动车窗开关等零部件存在缺陷。而整车设计则决定了车辆整体的安全性。</p>\n<p>根据调查，理想ONE此前发生的“断轴”事故，主要是因为设计问题，理想汽车CEO李想也承认“设计有缺陷”。</p>\n<p>巧合的是，近日，作为新造车势力的“鼻祖”，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>也因车辆前后悬架存在安全隐患而发起召回。国家市场监管总局（SAMR）和缺陷产品管理中心认为其零部件存在安全隐患。不过特斯拉在海外并不认账，反而甩锅给中国车主，认为事故是由于车主驾驶习惯不当造成的，为此新华社批特斯拉“傲慢无理”。</p>\n<p>自燃事故发生后，威马主动启动召回，但自燃风波仍在持续发酵。按照官方的说法，事故原因是电芯供应商在生产过程中混入杂质导致异常“析锂”。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593de6c1930b80847253a0986cdc6074\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"594\"><span>来源：威马官方</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>威马回应后，中兴高能紧急“撇清关系”，称10月5日和13日的两起自燃车辆搭载的电池由中兴高能提供，但10月27日，事故发生在北京的涉事车辆搭载的并非高能技术的电池。</p>\n<p>据未来汽车日报不完全统计，除了中兴高能、浙江谷神，还有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>、天津力神等超过6家供应商为威马提供电芯。</p>\n<p>在旁枝错节的供应商体系中，无论是品控还是供应商管理水平都难以掌控。不过威马是为数不多拥有电池包自主研发和组装能力的造车新势力，其在温州的电池Pack工厂能够进行电池包组装生产和检测，这或许也是威马“大胆”采用多家供应商电芯的底气。</p>\n<p>清华大学教授、中科院院士欧阳明高表示，电池安全是新能源车最大的风险，<b>引起锂离子动力电池燃烧的主要原因是电池热失控。其中“负极析活性锂、内短路、正极释活性氧”可以解释超过99%的电池热失控事故原因</b>。</p>\n<p>新能源电池云平台创始人吴奇斌告诉未来汽车日报，<b>除了电芯存在质量问题，电池包以及电控系统存在故障都会引起新能源车自燃</b>，“析锂”属于严重的质量问题，必然会导致电池内部短路引发事故。<b>事故原因由第三方司法鉴定机构来调查，但车子已经烧光了，很难界定</b>。</p>\n<p>事实上，厘清责任重要，但更重要的是如何保证用户的利益。“如果召回只是为了平民愤，他们（新势力车企）的问题永远也无法解决。”一位汽车行业分析师告诉未来汽车日报。</p>\n<p>如今尚未形成销量规模，新势力车企已触到市场逆鳞。由此也暴露出一个问题：缺乏安全基础，车辆造得再<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>又有什么意义？</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20448bf9207e8f3919a943b45955e974\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"629\"><span>来源：Pixabay</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>02</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>软件问题也频发</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>持股蔚来、阿里投资小鹏、美团力挺理想，头部新势力车企背后几乎都站着一位互联网巨头，这些“软件专家”无一不想打造一个划时代的出行新物种。</p>\n<p>“未来三年，买特斯拉以外的车就像买了一匹马。”对特斯拉自动驾驶功能颇具信心的特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）曾公然“挑衅”，视传统燃油车为“马”。</p>\n<p>“讽刺”的是，被一众造车新势力视作核心卖点的软件，却频频出现问题。</p>\n<p>10月中旬，蔚来和小鹏的车主纷纷在两家品牌官方APP内抱怨车机系统断网，事后蔚来和小鹏均把事故归因为供应商网络故障，但车机系统经常性罢工不断被车主诟病。</p>\n<p>在蔚来APP里，相关吐槽随处可见。“继续每天车机断网，今天断网十分钟。”认证为蔚来ES8创始版车主在APP中写道。蔚来ES6车主也会遇到类似情况，提车22天至少遇到十几次断网，“路上一直断网，手机开热点车机搜不到，就像一种假死状态，很多功能都无法启动”。甚至有车主打趣：如果你的蔚来断网了，恭喜你买到了一台真蔚来。</p>\n<p>即使是最擅长玩软件的特斯拉，车机系统照样漏洞百出。特斯拉Model 3车主王亮告诉未来汽车日报，车辆中控屏会随机并且频繁出现“驾驶视觉画面暂时降级”的警示语，该故障导致车辆Autopilot功能无法使用，基于摄像头硬件基础的主动安全配置完全失效，严重影响车辆驾驶安全。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f673a874bb62f67a4fba1345b76b3f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\"><span>来源：受访者供图</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>对此，特斯拉服务中心回应称该问题并非个例，而是全球性的，主要原因是此前更新版本存在bug，加上车载硬件算力不足导致宕机，特斯拉将通过补丁解决该问题。不过自9月下旬出现该故障后，截至11月9日最后一次更新，王亮的Model 3已经通过OTA更新了5次，问题却始终未能解决。王亮多次向服务中心反馈后，<b>对方表示软件问题短时间内无法解决，只能等待系统更新</b>。</p>\n<p>事实上，特斯拉车辆出现故障的案例正逐渐增多，车辆突然加速以及刹车失灵是车主投诉的重灾区。不过马斯克并未对此表现出担心，而是始终坚信自动驾驶功能有助于提高驾驶安全。前不久马斯克发文称，全自动驾驶（FSD）Beta版可以减少30%的人工干预，计划将FSD的价格上调至1万美元。</p>\n<p>在王亮看来，连基本的车机稳定性都很难保证，实现完全自动驾驶无异于在“沙滩上盖高楼”。</p>\n<p>质疑特斯拉软件实力的，不只是车主。7月份，路透社报道称，经德国慕尼黑法院裁定，特斯拉宣传自动驾驶构成了误导性商业行为，判其今后不得再声称或暗示其车辆具备自动驾驶功能。德国反不正当竞争保护机构Wettbewerbszentrale认为，<b>特斯拉对客户的承诺超出了其Autopilot辅助驾驶系统的实际能力范围</b>。</p>\n<p>来自传统势力的戏谑更是尖锐而不留情面。丰田社长丰田章男在11月6日的财报会议上比喻，“特斯拉的业务就像厨师和厨房，他们还没有在现实世界中创造出真正的业务，只是在试图推销菜谱。而丰田拥有真正的厨房和厨师，我们制作的是真正的食物，顾客对吃什么非常挑剔，他们已经坐在我们面前，并且在吃我们做的菜了。”</p>\n<p>当软件和硬件能力都不足以支撑新造车势力的野心，特斯拉们更像是在“超前消费”，一旦透支，“宴宾客楼塌了”的故事也将轮番上演。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>03</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>新造车集体遭遇第二考</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>2020年，是蔚来、理想等头部新造车企业飞速成长的一年。</p>\n<p>去年蔚来汽车CEO李斌还被调侃为“年度最惨人物”，如今已彻底翻身，个人财富暴涨百亿。过去一年蔚来股价涨幅高达2126%，总市值已突破550亿美元，超过了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>、福特以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RACE\">法拉利</a>等传统汽车巨头。</p>\n<p>花旗银行将蔚来目标价上调40%至46.4美元，认为蔚来第四季度毛利率有望达到22%-25%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>分析师重申对蔚来股票的“买入”评级。李斌也终于缓了一口气，“蔚来已经从重症监护室转到普通病房了。”</p>\n<p>2020年不仅是蔚来“起死回生”的一年，更接连见证了理想与小鹏成功赴美IPO的高光时刻。</p>\n<p>7月30日晚，理想汽车成功登陆纳斯达克，大股东王兴第一时间为其呐喊助威，认为理想汽车的市值即便达到千亿美元，也仍被“低估一个数量级”。一个月后，小鹏汽车在美国纽交所挂牌上市，当天收盘总市值达到150亿美元，刷新中国企业在美国的IPO纪录。威马汽车也于9月拿下100亿人民币的D轮融资，随着上市申请提交，距离科创板上市只差临门一脚。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50cf93a088086bd9e42c0b41c73d1cdf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"498\"><span>数据统计截至11月12日9时，未来汽车日报制图</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>重获资本青睐背后，是“粉丝们”真金白银的支持。11月2日，蔚来、理想、小鹏、威马默契地同一天发布10月销量快报，无一例外全线飘红。小鹏、理想与威马当月交付量均超过3000辆，蔚来月交付量更是首次突破5000辆。</p>\n<p>然而，迈过融资、量产交付、上市的门槛，还远未到举杯欢庆的时候，新造车们正迎来“产品是否可靠”的关键大考。</p>\n<p>用户规模不断攀升，对新造车产品品质的考验也随之严苛。其实自燃、断轴并不是新造车独有的现象，传统车企也同样会发生类似事故。北汽新能源、广汽新能源以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>等传统车企生产的新能源汽车都出现过自燃现象，即便是新势力车企的榜样特斯拉，在全球范围内也发生过超过50起自燃事故。</p>\n<p>只是，新造车们自带流量，大众习惯于拿着放大镜将新造车企业的一举一动细细审视。</p>\n<p>经历过这一波集中召回潮，比起现金流承压更“残酷”的是信誉流失，市场不会为新势力车企们不成熟的技术和工艺买单。</p>\n<p>“新能源汽车行业瞬息万变，即便是融资再多或者成功上市，仍然有可能倒下去。”一位汽车行业分析师告诉未来汽车日报，销量虽然在短时间内能够爬坡，但长远来看，他们显然还有更重要的事情要做，一旦口碑坍塌，用户的信任荡然无存，这将是致命打击。</p>\n<p>“虽然造车新势力提前抢占了市场空白期、吸引了大量资本，但对于消费者来说买车并不看市值高低，关键还在于产品和品牌的可靠性。”汽车行业分析师凌然告诉未来汽车日报，如今已经过了兜售造车理念的阶段，接下来还是需要实体市场的支撑，“新势力车企也远没有度过危险期”。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>04</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>真正的较量才刚刚开始</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>走出PPT的新造车们，面临的挑战远不止弥补自身短板。大众、丰田等汽车巨头，已经加入战局，如何从这些大佬的虎口中夺食才是更大难题。</p>\n<p>在互联网领域，几乎所有的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">创业公司</a>都会面临一个直击灵魂的问题：如果BAT入局，你还有没有机会？把相似的问题放在新能源汽车领域，新势力车企们也必须作答。</p>\n<p>事实上，汽车行业的“BAT”正在大举进攻这个全新的战场。</p>\n<p>10月底，投资170亿元的上汽大众MEB工厂正式投产，几天后ID.4 X正式开启预订，续航555km的长续航版补贴后售价不超过25万元。在中国市场拥有大批拥趸的丰田、本田等日系品牌也开始积极拥抱电动化，不断扩充新能源车产能，广汽丰田已开始建设总产能接近40万辆的两座全新工厂。此外，福特也将打造“更多人买得起”的电动车。</p>\n<p>11月5日，据外媒报道，<b>宝马将改变其电气化战略，正在研发自己的电动车平台，准备彻底告别“油改电”思路</b>。数日之后，11月11日晚，宝马集团正式发布了BMW iNEXT的量产车型——纯电动宝马iX。按照计划，BMW iX将在明年开始量产，并于明年引入国内。</p>\n<p>主流合资品牌、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">豪华</a>品牌发起围剿，自主品牌也在暗暗发力。</p>\n<p>7月份，2.88万元起售的五菱宏光MINI EV正式上市，一推出就成为销量黑马。根据乘联会数据，10月份这款车销量达2.4万辆，再次成为新能源车型销量冠军。长城旗下欧拉R1同样迎来大涨，10月份销量同比大涨287.5%至6269辆。</p>\n<p>在合资巨头和自主车企的前后夹击之下，新造车们的生存空间越来越小。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b945fbc66c14e46201d195edbc9c1ea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"592\"><span>来源：威马官网</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>“传统车企发力新能源，在制造以及成本控制等方面拥有很大优势，其潜力相对较大。”乘联会秘书长崔东树告诉未来汽车日报，新势力车企的造车经验相对欠缺，在互联网方面的优势体现得也不充分，未来新势力车企们成本压力会逐渐加大。“只有加速扩大产量和品类，快速抢占市场才能改变市场的认知。”</p>\n<p>凌然也表达了同样的看法，新势力车企还有机会，但一定要孤注一掷，产品也要“别开生面”，不能单看高市值“画饼充饥”。目前新势力车企的抗风险能力很弱，单凭一两款车型很难打开市场，只有不断创新推出精品，才能在各自的细分市场站稳脚跟。“<b>甚至不排除这些新势力车企联合起来，形成年产30万-50万辆的新能源联合企业。</b>”</p>\n<p>站在百年汽车工业的时间维度来看，新能源汽车仍然是一个新兴领域，很多技术仍不成熟。新势力车企们更是非常“年轻”，最“年长”的特斯拉也不过才诞生17年，与奔驰、福特等百年品牌在汽车制造方面自然无法相比。</p>\n<p>品牌及制造缺乏积淀，经历早期野蛮生长之后，等待新势力车企的更大挑战才刚刚开始。</p>","source":"lsy1578367390233","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>造车新势力频频断轴失火，戳破千亿市值泡沫？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n造车新势力频频断轴失火，戳破千亿市值泡沫？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-12 18:23 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8vygX3Wq8nOaJGaUAd55Hg><strong>未来汽车Daily</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>成长的烦恼。\n\n自燃、断轴、断网，造车新势力们正在遭遇前所未遇的烦恼。\n伴随着10月27日晚，北京海淀区中国科学院力学研究所内一声爆炸，威马汽车再次被推向舆论的风口浪尖。理想汽车也深陷“质量危机”。官方信息显示，截至10月31日，理想ONE累计发生前悬架碰撞事故97起，其中有10起出现前悬架下摆臂球头从球销脱出的情况。\n硬件问题频发，软件也难以幸免。前不久，蔚来汽车和小鹏汽车的车机系统出现大面积...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8vygX3Wq8nOaJGaUAd55Hg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2c4fc2a56c7beee651f2aca5908787b","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8vygX3Wq8nOaJGaUAd55Hg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102236185","content_text":"成长的烦恼。\n\n自燃、断轴、断网，造车新势力们正在遭遇前所未遇的烦恼。\n伴随着10月27日晚，北京海淀区中国科学院力学研究所内一声爆炸，威马汽车再次被推向舆论的风口浪尖。理想汽车也深陷“质量危机”。官方信息显示，截至10月31日，理想ONE累计发生前悬架碰撞事故97起，其中有10起出现前悬架下摆臂球头从球销脱出的情况。\n硬件问题频发，软件也难以幸免。前不久，蔚来汽车和小鹏汽车的车机系统出现大面积断网，车机内部显示有信号但无法正常联网。事后，官方把原因归结为“运营商网络问题”，但车机系统宕机仍挑战着公众的敏感神经。\n据未来汽车日报不完全统计，目前已经有四家新造车企业启动过召回，除了理想，蔚来和威马曾因电池存在安全隐患发起主动召回，零跑则因仪表盘软件存在bug发起召回。四起召回共涉及车辆超过1.6万辆。\n国内新势力车企召回情况，未来汽车日报制表\n事故频发，大众哗然，新造车的产品还“安全”吗？\n根据《新能源汽车产业发展规划（2021-2035年）》，预计到2025年，新能源汽车将占据新车销售总量的20%。为了抢占“钱景”如此巨大的蓝海，传统巨擘已经火力全开。眼下，遭遇“成长烦恼”的新势力车企们该如何迎战？\n\n\n01\n\n\n安全事故频发，谁之过？\n\n\n诱发车辆发生安全事故的原因主要涉及质量缺陷和设计漏洞，具体原因错综复杂。一辆新能源汽车，除了电池、电机、电控等核心零部件，还涉及上万个细小零部件，每一个环节都有可能存在质量缺陷。此前丰田发起史上最大规模的召回，主要原因就是安全带以及电动车窗开关等零部件存在缺陷。而整车设计则决定了车辆整体的安全性。\n根据调查，理想ONE此前发生的“断轴”事故，主要是因为设计问题，理想汽车CEO李想也承认“设计有缺陷”。\n巧合的是，近日，作为新造车势力的“鼻祖”，特斯拉也因车辆前后悬架存在安全隐患而发起召回。国家市场监管总局（SAMR）和缺陷产品管理中心认为其零部件存在安全隐患。不过特斯拉在海外并不认账，反而甩锅给中国车主，认为事故是由于车主驾驶习惯不当造成的，为此新华社批特斯拉“傲慢无理”。\n自燃事故发生后，威马主动启动召回，但自燃风波仍在持续发酵。按照官方的说法，事故原因是电芯供应商在生产过程中混入杂质导致异常“析锂”。\n来源：威马官方\n\n\n\n\n\n威马回应后，中兴高能紧急“撇清关系”，称10月5日和13日的两起自燃车辆搭载的电池由中兴高能提供，但10月27日，事故发生在北京的涉事车辆搭载的并非高能技术的电池。\n据未来汽车日报不完全统计，除了中兴高能、浙江谷神，还有宁德时代、天津力神等超过6家供应商为威马提供电芯。\n在旁枝错节的供应商体系中，无论是品控还是供应商管理水平都难以掌控。不过威马是为数不多拥有电池包自主研发和组装能力的造车新势力，其在温州的电池Pack工厂能够进行电池包组装生产和检测，这或许也是威马“大胆”采用多家供应商电芯的底气。\n清华大学教授、中科院院士欧阳明高表示，电池安全是新能源车最大的风险，引起锂离子动力电池燃烧的主要原因是电池热失控。其中“负极析活性锂、内短路、正极释活性氧”可以解释超过99%的电池热失控事故原因。\n新能源电池云平台创始人吴奇斌告诉未来汽车日报，除了电芯存在质量问题，电池包以及电控系统存在故障都会引起新能源车自燃，“析锂”属于严重的质量问题，必然会导致电池内部短路引发事故。事故原因由第三方司法鉴定机构来调查，但车子已经烧光了，很难界定。\n事实上，厘清责任重要，但更重要的是如何保证用户的利益。“如果召回只是为了平民愤，他们（新势力车企）的问题永远也无法解决。”一位汽车行业分析师告诉未来汽车日报。\n如今尚未形成销量规模，新势力车企已触到市场逆鳞。由此也暴露出一个问题：缺乏安全基础，车辆造得再智能又有什么意义？\n\n\n来源：Pixabay\n\n\n\n\n\n02\n\n\n软件问题也频发\n\n\n腾讯持股蔚来、阿里投资小鹏、美团力挺理想，头部新势力车企背后几乎都站着一位互联网巨头，这些“软件专家”无一不想打造一个划时代的出行新物种。\n“未来三年，买特斯拉以外的车就像买了一匹马。”对特斯拉自动驾驶功能颇具信心的特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）曾公然“挑衅”，视传统燃油车为“马”。\n“讽刺”的是，被一众造车新势力视作核心卖点的软件，却频频出现问题。\n10月中旬，蔚来和小鹏的车主纷纷在两家品牌官方APP内抱怨车机系统断网，事后蔚来和小鹏均把事故归因为供应商网络故障，但车机系统经常性罢工不断被车主诟病。\n在蔚来APP里，相关吐槽随处可见。“继续每天车机断网，今天断网十分钟。”认证为蔚来ES8创始版车主在APP中写道。蔚来ES6车主也会遇到类似情况，提车22天至少遇到十几次断网，“路上一直断网，手机开热点车机搜不到，就像一种假死状态，很多功能都无法启动”。甚至有车主打趣：如果你的蔚来断网了，恭喜你买到了一台真蔚来。\n即使是最擅长玩软件的特斯拉，车机系统照样漏洞百出。特斯拉Model 3车主王亮告诉未来汽车日报，车辆中控屏会随机并且频繁出现“驾驶视觉画面暂时降级”的警示语，该故障导致车辆Autopilot功能无法使用，基于摄像头硬件基础的主动安全配置完全失效，严重影响车辆驾驶安全。\n\n\n来源：受访者供图\n\n\n\n\n\n对此，特斯拉服务中心回应称该问题并非个例，而是全球性的，主要原因是此前更新版本存在bug，加上车载硬件算力不足导致宕机，特斯拉将通过补丁解决该问题。不过自9月下旬出现该故障后，截至11月9日最后一次更新，王亮的Model 3已经通过OTA更新了5次，问题却始终未能解决。王亮多次向服务中心反馈后，对方表示软件问题短时间内无法解决，只能等待系统更新。\n事实上，特斯拉车辆出现故障的案例正逐渐增多，车辆突然加速以及刹车失灵是车主投诉的重灾区。不过马斯克并未对此表现出担心，而是始终坚信自动驾驶功能有助于提高驾驶安全。前不久马斯克发文称，全自动驾驶（FSD）Beta版可以减少30%的人工干预，计划将FSD的价格上调至1万美元。\n在王亮看来，连基本的车机稳定性都很难保证，实现完全自动驾驶无异于在“沙滩上盖高楼”。\n质疑特斯拉软件实力的，不只是车主。7月份，路透社报道称，经德国慕尼黑法院裁定，特斯拉宣传自动驾驶构成了误导性商业行为，判其今后不得再声称或暗示其车辆具备自动驾驶功能。德国反不正当竞争保护机构Wettbewerbszentrale认为，特斯拉对客户的承诺超出了其Autopilot辅助驾驶系统的实际能力范围。\n来自传统势力的戏谑更是尖锐而不留情面。丰田社长丰田章男在11月6日的财报会议上比喻，“特斯拉的业务就像厨师和厨房，他们还没有在现实世界中创造出真正的业务，只是在试图推销菜谱。而丰田拥有真正的厨房和厨师，我们制作的是真正的食物，顾客对吃什么非常挑剔，他们已经坐在我们面前，并且在吃我们做的菜了。”\n当软件和硬件能力都不足以支撑新造车势力的野心，特斯拉们更像是在“超前消费”，一旦透支，“宴宾客楼塌了”的故事也将轮番上演。\n\n\n03\n\n\n新造车集体遭遇第二考\n\n\n2020年，是蔚来、理想等头部新造车企业飞速成长的一年。\n去年蔚来汽车CEO李斌还被调侃为“年度最惨人物”，如今已彻底翻身，个人财富暴涨百亿。过去一年蔚来股价涨幅高达2126%，总市值已突破550亿美元，超过了通用汽车、福特以及法拉利等传统汽车巨头。\n花旗银行将蔚来目标价上调40%至46.4美元，认为蔚来第四季度毛利率有望达到22%-25%。德意志银行分析师重申对蔚来股票的“买入”评级。李斌也终于缓了一口气，“蔚来已经从重症监护室转到普通病房了。”\n2020年不仅是蔚来“起死回生”的一年，更接连见证了理想与小鹏成功赴美IPO的高光时刻。\n7月30日晚，理想汽车成功登陆纳斯达克，大股东王兴第一时间为其呐喊助威，认为理想汽车的市值即便达到千亿美元，也仍被“低估一个数量级”。一个月后，小鹏汽车在美国纽交所挂牌上市，当天收盘总市值达到150亿美元，刷新中国企业在美国的IPO纪录。威马汽车也于9月拿下100亿人民币的D轮融资，随着上市申请提交，距离科创板上市只差临门一脚。\n\n\n数据统计截至11月12日9时，未来汽车日报制图\n\n\n\n\n\n重获资本青睐背后，是“粉丝们”真金白银的支持。11月2日，蔚来、理想、小鹏、威马默契地同一天发布10月销量快报，无一例外全线飘红。小鹏、理想与威马当月交付量均超过3000辆，蔚来月交付量更是首次突破5000辆。\n然而，迈过融资、量产交付、上市的门槛，还远未到举杯欢庆的时候，新造车们正迎来“产品是否可靠”的关键大考。\n用户规模不断攀升，对新造车产品品质的考验也随之严苛。其实自燃、断轴并不是新造车独有的现象，传统车企也同样会发生类似事故。北汽新能源、广汽新能源以及比亚迪等传统车企生产的新能源汽车都出现过自燃现象，即便是新势力车企的榜样特斯拉，在全球范围内也发生过超过50起自燃事故。\n只是，新造车们自带流量，大众习惯于拿着放大镜将新造车企业的一举一动细细审视。\n经历过这一波集中召回潮，比起现金流承压更“残酷”的是信誉流失，市场不会为新势力车企们不成熟的技术和工艺买单。\n“新能源汽车行业瞬息万变，即便是融资再多或者成功上市，仍然有可能倒下去。”一位汽车行业分析师告诉未来汽车日报，销量虽然在短时间内能够爬坡，但长远来看，他们显然还有更重要的事情要做，一旦口碑坍塌，用户的信任荡然无存，这将是致命打击。\n“虽然造车新势力提前抢占了市场空白期、吸引了大量资本，但对于消费者来说买车并不看市值高低，关键还在于产品和品牌的可靠性。”汽车行业分析师凌然告诉未来汽车日报，如今已经过了兜售造车理念的阶段，接下来还是需要实体市场的支撑，“新势力车企也远没有度过危险期”。\n\n\n04\n\n\n真正的较量才刚刚开始\n\n\n走出PPT的新造车们，面临的挑战远不止弥补自身短板。大众、丰田等汽车巨头，已经加入战局，如何从这些大佬的虎口中夺食才是更大难题。\n在互联网领域，几乎所有的创业公司都会面临一个直击灵魂的问题：如果BAT入局，你还有没有机会？把相似的问题放在新能源汽车领域，新势力车企们也必须作答。\n事实上，汽车行业的“BAT”正在大举进攻这个全新的战场。\n10月底，投资170亿元的上汽大众MEB工厂正式投产，几天后ID.4 X正式开启预订，续航555km的长续航版补贴后售价不超过25万元。在中国市场拥有大批拥趸的丰田、本田等日系品牌也开始积极拥抱电动化，不断扩充新能源车产能，广汽丰田已开始建设总产能接近40万辆的两座全新工厂。此外，福特也将打造“更多人买得起”的电动车。\n11月5日，据外媒报道，宝马将改变其电气化战略，正在研发自己的电动车平台，准备彻底告别“油改电”思路。数日之后，11月11日晚，宝马集团正式发布了BMW iNEXT的量产车型——纯电动宝马iX。按照计划，BMW iX将在明年开始量产，并于明年引入国内。\n主流合资品牌、豪华品牌发起围剿，自主品牌也在暗暗发力。\n7月份，2.88万元起售的五菱宏光MINI EV正式上市，一推出就成为销量黑马。根据乘联会数据，10月份这款车销量达2.4万辆，再次成为新能源车型销量冠军。长城旗下欧拉R1同样迎来大涨，10月份销量同比大涨287.5%至6269辆。\n在合资巨头和自主车企的前后夹击之下，新造车们的生存空间越来越小。\n\n\n来源：威马官网\n\n\n\n\n\n“传统车企发力新能源，在制造以及成本控制等方面拥有很大优势，其潜力相对较大。”乘联会秘书长崔东树告诉未来汽车日报，新势力车企的造车经验相对欠缺，在互联网方面的优势体现得也不充分，未来新势力车企们成本压力会逐渐加大。“只有加速扩大产量和品类，快速抢占市场才能改变市场的认知。”\n凌然也表达了同样的看法，新势力车企还有机会，但一定要孤注一掷，产品也要“别开生面”，不能单看高市值“画饼充饥”。目前新势力车企的抗风险能力很弱，单凭一两款车型很难打开市场，只有不断创新推出精品，才能在各自的细分市场站稳脚跟。“甚至不排除这些新势力车企联合起来，形成年产30万-50万辆的新能源联合企业。”\n站在百年汽车工业的时间维度来看，新能源汽车仍然是一个新兴领域，很多技术仍不成熟。新势力车企们更是非常“年轻”，最“年长”的特斯拉也不过才诞生17年，与奔驰、福特等百年品牌在汽车制造方面自然无法相比。\n品牌及制造缺乏积淀，经历早期野蛮生长之后，等待新势力车企的更大挑战才刚刚开始。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2077,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335171418,"gmtCreate":1610550669334,"gmtModify":1703745192838,"author":{"id":"3449978221816119","authorId":"3449978221816119","name":"萌萌虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6984362d660de86e9d36273dad614c1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3449978221816119","authorIdStr":"3449978221816119"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>这韭菜割的高","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>这韭菜割的高","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$这韭菜割的高","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335171418","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1240,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":399370508,"gmtCreate":1605972285004,"gmtModify":1703840610633,"author":{"id":"3449978221816119","authorId":"3449978221816119","name":"萌萌虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6984362d660de86e9d36273dad614c1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3449978221816119","authorIdStr":"3449978221816119"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"一本正经的胡说八道，又来割韭菜。","listText":"一本正经的胡说八道，又来割韭菜。","text":"一本正经的胡说八道，又来割韭菜。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/399370508","repostId":"2085758258","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2085758258","pubTimestamp":1605953893,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2085758258?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-21 18:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"大空头香橼出手，蔚来泡沫要被刺破了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2085758258","media":"投研帮","summary":"我觉得这周最重要的一个事情你们应该都知道了，香橼出面做空蔚来了。对于江淮蔚来工厂来说，应该是单班转双班生产了。所以单纯按照EV/Sales来估值，蔚来确实比特斯拉高估了2倍，考虑到特斯拉柏林工厂带来更多的销量，这个差距蔚来将来也很难快速凭借销量追上。所以香橼发布做空报告后，蔚来的股价也的确从50多回调到了40多。造出来可能是像这样：就看蔚来到时候怎么解决这个问题了。","content":"<html><body><article><p>大家好，我是刘轰轰。</p><p>这周因为距离<strong>广州车展</strong>很近了，要准备一些事情所以比较忙，就没有在第一时间去讲一些热点事件，今天先补一下。</p><p>我觉得这周最重要的一个事情你们应该都知道了，香橼出面做空<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>了。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/12803015781/0\"/><p>考虑到也有朋友不了解<strong>香橼</strong>这家机构，以及对新能源行业平时很难保持100%的关注度，所以我还是简单介绍一下这次香橼做空蔚来的事件：</p><p>香橼算是一家很神奇的机构，它之前曾经在7美元的时候唱多蔚来，给出的理由中包括了采访了很多蔚来车主，这点倒和我买入蔚来的原因差不多。</p><p>而这次发看空报告的原因，则是认为蔚来虽然是个好公司，但是涨的太多了，理由有两点：</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/12803015782/0\"/><p><strong>1.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>即将在中国开售model Y，这款特斯拉的中型SUV价格和定位都和蔚来ES6、EC6直接产生了竞争关系：</strong></p><p>“We continue to see some risk that Tesla could materially cut the price of its locally made (MIC)<strong>Model Y from 488k RMB ($73k) to something in the mid- to high-300k range ($56-58k).</strong>This could potentially hurt near-term sentiment and slow NIO’s order book momentum considering it would be a direct competitor to NIO’s EC6 and ES6.”</p><p>——这部分我认为香橼的判断是<strong>对的</strong>，一方面是当下35-50万级别纯电SUV，确实只有蔚来能打，一旦model Y参与竞争，结果很可能是会吃掉蔚来的一部分潜在客户。</p><p>另外就像我之前提到过的，特斯拉在上海工厂给model Y规划的产能是25万台，也就意味着换算到每个月销量超过2万台（如果不出口），即便前期出口一部分，那么月销15000也是有的，而蔚来之前销量刚刚突破每个月5000台。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/12803015783/0\"/><p><strong>从model 3的降价和销量的历史数据可以发现，model Y要想单月上15000台，起步价格必然会下降到27万左右，而长续航版预计会跟ES6的入门版刚上，毫无疑问这对蔚来来说会有相当大的压力。</strong></p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/12803015784/0\"/><p>不过蔚来也并不是毫无抵抗之力，我问过一线销售，目前部分订单已经排到春节后了，李斌在财报中也提及，明年（2021年）一月产能会提升到7500台。对于江淮蔚来工厂来说，应该是单班转双班生产了。</p><p>那么model Y对蔚来影响到底有多大呢？先看看香橼的第二个理由：</p><p><strong>2.目前蔚来汽车的相对估值是特斯拉的两倍，根据NTM EV/Sales（未来12个月市销率）来计算，蔚来的交易价格为17-18倍，而特斯拉仅为9倍；</strong></p><p>NIO has acted as a great trading proxy for Tesla given the valuations have historically been highly correlated. However, there is now a massive disconnect with NIO trading at the largest premium to TSLA in history at double the valuation.<strong>On NTM EV/Sales, NIO is trading at 17-18x vs. TSLA at 9x.</strong></p><p>Moreover, when Tesla was delivering a quarterly run-rate of 15K vehicles similar to NIO today, TSLA had 45% share of the US EV market while NIO faces significant competition today and has 3% share of the Chinese NEV market. Last month,<strong>TSLA sold more than double the number of vehicles in China that NIO sold.</strong></p><p>——这部分香橼的判断我认为<strong>有道理。</strong></p><p>因为我在之前的文章里提到过一个概念，那就是目前对于蔚来来说，自身的换电体系并没有被其他厂商所接受，所以这家公司主要的业务仍然是卖车。</p><p>而特斯拉就不同了，除了卖车之外，能源业务也成为了公司营收中重要的环节，在加上自动驾驶带来的涉猎出行市场的机会，因此市场给特斯拉很高的估值其实并不奇怪。</p><p>所以单纯按照EV/Sales来估值，蔚来确实比特斯拉高估了2倍，考虑到特斯拉柏林工厂带来更多的销量，这个差距蔚来将来也很难快速凭借销量追上。</p><p><strong>所以香橼发布做空报告后，蔚来的股价也的确从50多回调到了40多。考虑到model Y越来越近，对我来说止盈是早晚的事情，所以就提前卖出了蔚来，安心坐等之后价格稍微合理一点后再买入。</strong></p><p>更重要的是，之前某个交易日蔚来的交易额全美市场第一，在没有明显利好的情况下，最近价格猛涨，很明显投机成分太重了。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/12803015786/0\"/><p>我和一个朋友聊了下这个话题，对于是不是真的股价要和香橼预测的那样要腰斩，他认为大概率不会，在大环境没有明显变化的情况下，回调10-20%后稳住向上是比较可能出现的。</p><p>说说对蔚来的预期：</p><p>蔚来自己的规划是这样的：“我们预计在未来的第四季度将交付16500至17000辆汽车；一月份的产能会达到7500台，合肥工场扩建在2021年底将会完成，年产能可达30万；我们会在明年的后半年进入欧洲市场；技术核心是自动驾驶，行业领先的量产自动驾驶系统NT2.0正在加速研发中；即将发布第四代轿车车型，第五代车型也正在研发中。”</p><p>这个规划里有一个比较大的疑问：<strong>明年的轿车其实有一个很现实的问题，那就是电池高度——小鹏P7的电池是和宁德一起定制化</strong>的<strong>，高度要比其他厂商低不少，这也是为什么P7是首台纯电轿跑的原因。</strong></p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/12803015788/0\"/><p>而蔚来的换电体系，注定了它的电池规格很难发生变化，那就意味着蔚来真正推出的轿车，极有可能是一款跨界车，因为电池高度太高了，做轿车底盘高度并不够。造出来可能是像这样：</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/12803015789/0\"/><p>就看蔚来到时候怎么解决这个问题了。</p><p><strong>最后讲一个有意思的视角：</strong></p><p>特斯拉之所以拼命降价的一个原因是它可上海市政府有个对赌协议：<strong>上海超级工厂从2023年年底起，每年须纳税22.3亿元，如果不能达成这一条件，则必须归还相应土地。</strong></p><p>每年纳税22.3亿元，就意味着对应需要销售相当多的车才能交上这个税款，这也是为什么特斯拉必须一路飞奔，而不是慢慢赚钱的原因。</p><p><strong>——别怪特斯拉“割韭菜”实际上某种意义讲国家在拿着小鞭子抽特斯拉，让它拼命国产化，然后我们国内的供应链上的公司就受益了。</strong></p><p>而蔚来其实也有同样的情况，蔚来与合肥市政府的对赌协议是这样约定的：“蔚来中国2020年营收148亿，2024年营收1200亿元（上市6-8款车型），2020年至2025年总营收4200亿元，总税收78亿元，并且2025年前在科创板上市。</p><p>这一看就几乎不可能完成，因为按照蔚来40万单车价格，要达成1200亿营收，那就是一年30万的销量，工厂是够了，但现在蔚来年销量5万辆，如果不降价走量的话，完成的可能性微乎其微。</p><p><strong>但李斌还真就立下了死不降价的flag</strong>：李斌承诺，蔚来坚决不降价。因为降价会打击到用户，他们所购买车的残值也会下降。“坚持高端品牌定位是我们做得很对的一件事情。”</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/12803015792/0\"/><p>既然大概率完不成业绩，那蔚来之前干的一件事情就好理解了：</p><p>9月18日，蔚来汽车发布公告，宣布公司在9月16日与蔚来中国股东之一合肥建恒新能源汽车投资基金合伙企业签署协议，NIO Nextev赎回该基金目前持有的蔚来中国50%股权，相当于蔚来中国8.6％股权。</p><p>但其实说白了蔚来现在不缺订单，自然有不降价的底气，但等model Y来了就不好说了。</p><p>而蔚来的车主们，的确也不希望蔚来降价。</p><p>最后的最后，说下这周我个人的操作：止盈蔚来、小鹏、理想，<span>加仓</span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600711\">盛屯矿业</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002666\">德联集团</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002126\">银轮股份</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002196\">方正电机</a>。</p><p>新能源赛道有长达80年的投资机会，只需要慢慢等待即可。</p><p>点击星标收藏我,第一时间看好文</p><p>◤</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/12329875316/0\"/><p>汽车自媒体可能没我懂财经</p><p>财经自媒体可能没我懂汽车</p><p>一码不扫，何以扫天下？</p><p>我就知道你“在看”</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大空头香橼出手，蔚来泡沫要被刺破了？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大空头香橼出手，蔚来泡沫要被刺破了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-21 18:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2020112118203477361d1b&s=b><strong>投研帮</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>大家好，我是刘轰轰。这周因为距离广州车展很近了，要准备一些事情所以比较忙，就没有在第一时间去讲一些热点事件，今天先补一下。我觉得这周最重要的一个事情你们应该都知道了，香橼出面做空蔚来了。考虑到也有朋友不了解香橼这家机构，以及对新能源行业平时很难保持100%的关注度，所以我还是简单介绍一下这次香橼做空蔚来的事件：香橼算是一家很神奇的机构，它之前曾经在7美元的时候唱多蔚来，给出的理由中包括了采访了很多...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2020112118203477361d1b&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feebf0ff4401232c3ecc332f566f18e0","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2020112118203477361d1b&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2085758258","content_text":"大家好，我是刘轰轰。这周因为距离广州车展很近了，要准备一些事情所以比较忙，就没有在第一时间去讲一些热点事件，今天先补一下。我觉得这周最重要的一个事情你们应该都知道了，香橼出面做空蔚来了。考虑到也有朋友不了解香橼这家机构，以及对新能源行业平时很难保持100%的关注度，所以我还是简单介绍一下这次香橼做空蔚来的事件：香橼算是一家很神奇的机构，它之前曾经在7美元的时候唱多蔚来，给出的理由中包括了采访了很多蔚来车主，这点倒和我买入蔚来的原因差不多。而这次发看空报告的原因，则是认为蔚来虽然是个好公司，但是涨的太多了，理由有两点：1.特斯拉即将在中国开售model Y，这款特斯拉的中型SUV价格和定位都和蔚来ES6、EC6直接产生了竞争关系：“We continue to see some risk that Tesla could materially cut the price of its locally made (MIC)Model Y from 488k RMB ($73k) to something in the mid- to high-300k range ($56-58k).This could potentially hurt near-term sentiment and slow NIO’s order book momentum considering it would be a direct competitor to NIO’s EC6 and ES6.”——这部分我认为香橼的判断是对的，一方面是当下35-50万级别纯电SUV，确实只有蔚来能打，一旦model Y参与竞争，结果很可能是会吃掉蔚来的一部分潜在客户。另外就像我之前提到过的，特斯拉在上海工厂给model Y规划的产能是25万台，也就意味着换算到每个月销量超过2万台（如果不出口），即便前期出口一部分，那么月销15000也是有的，而蔚来之前销量刚刚突破每个月5000台。从model 3的降价和销量的历史数据可以发现，model Y要想单月上15000台，起步价格必然会下降到27万左右，而长续航版预计会跟ES6的入门版刚上，毫无疑问这对蔚来来说会有相当大的压力。不过蔚来也并不是毫无抵抗之力，我问过一线销售，目前部分订单已经排到春节后了，李斌在财报中也提及，明年（2021年）一月产能会提升到7500台。对于江淮蔚来工厂来说，应该是单班转双班生产了。那么model Y对蔚来影响到底有多大呢？先看看香橼的第二个理由：2.目前蔚来汽车的相对估值是特斯拉的两倍，根据NTM EV/Sales（未来12个月市销率）来计算，蔚来的交易价格为17-18倍，而特斯拉仅为9倍；NIO has acted as a great trading proxy for Tesla given the valuations have historically been highly correlated. However, there is now a massive disconnect with NIO trading at the largest premium to TSLA in history at double the valuation.On NTM EV/Sales, NIO is trading at 17-18x vs. TSLA at 9x.Moreover, when Tesla was delivering a quarterly run-rate of 15K vehicles similar to NIO today, TSLA had 45% share of the US EV market while NIO faces significant competition today and has 3% share of the Chinese NEV market. Last month,TSLA sold more than double the number of vehicles in China that NIO sold.——这部分香橼的判断我认为有道理。因为我在之前的文章里提到过一个概念，那就是目前对于蔚来来说，自身的换电体系并没有被其他厂商所接受，所以这家公司主要的业务仍然是卖车。而特斯拉就不同了，除了卖车之外，能源业务也成为了公司营收中重要的环节，在加上自动驾驶带来的涉猎出行市场的机会，因此市场给特斯拉很高的估值其实并不奇怪。所以单纯按照EV/Sales来估值，蔚来确实比特斯拉高估了2倍，考虑到特斯拉柏林工厂带来更多的销量，这个差距蔚来将来也很难快速凭借销量追上。所以香橼发布做空报告后，蔚来的股价也的确从50多回调到了40多。考虑到model Y越来越近，对我来说止盈是早晚的事情，所以就提前卖出了蔚来，安心坐等之后价格稍微合理一点后再买入。更重要的是，之前某个交易日蔚来的交易额全美市场第一，在没有明显利好的情况下，最近价格猛涨，很明显投机成分太重了。我和一个朋友聊了下这个话题，对于是不是真的股价要和香橼预测的那样要腰斩，他认为大概率不会，在大环境没有明显变化的情况下，回调10-20%后稳住向上是比较可能出现的。说说对蔚来的预期：蔚来自己的规划是这样的：“我们预计在未来的第四季度将交付16500至17000辆汽车；一月份的产能会达到7500台，合肥工场扩建在2021年底将会完成，年产能可达30万；我们会在明年的后半年进入欧洲市场；技术核心是自动驾驶，行业领先的量产自动驾驶系统NT2.0正在加速研发中；即将发布第四代轿车车型，第五代车型也正在研发中。”这个规划里有一个比较大的疑问：明年的轿车其实有一个很现实的问题，那就是电池高度——小鹏P7的电池是和宁德一起定制化的，高度要比其他厂商低不少，这也是为什么P7是首台纯电轿跑的原因。而蔚来的换电体系，注定了它的电池规格很难发生变化，那就意味着蔚来真正推出的轿车，极有可能是一款跨界车，因为电池高度太高了，做轿车底盘高度并不够。造出来可能是像这样：就看蔚来到时候怎么解决这个问题了。最后讲一个有意思的视角：特斯拉之所以拼命降价的一个原因是它可上海市政府有个对赌协议：上海超级工厂从2023年年底起，每年须纳税22.3亿元，如果不能达成这一条件，则必须归还相应土地。每年纳税22.3亿元，就意味着对应需要销售相当多的车才能交上这个税款，这也是为什么特斯拉必须一路飞奔，而不是慢慢赚钱的原因。——别怪特斯拉“割韭菜”实际上某种意义讲国家在拿着小鞭子抽特斯拉，让它拼命国产化，然后我们国内的供应链上的公司就受益了。而蔚来其实也有同样的情况，蔚来与合肥市政府的对赌协议是这样约定的：“蔚来中国2020年营收148亿，2024年营收1200亿元（上市6-8款车型），2020年至2025年总营收4200亿元，总税收78亿元，并且2025年前在科创板上市。这一看就几乎不可能完成，因为按照蔚来40万单车价格，要达成1200亿营收，那就是一年30万的销量，工厂是够了，但现在蔚来年销量5万辆，如果不降价走量的话，完成的可能性微乎其微。但李斌还真就立下了死不降价的flag：李斌承诺，蔚来坚决不降价。因为降价会打击到用户，他们所购买车的残值也会下降。“坚持高端品牌定位是我们做得很对的一件事情。”既然大概率完不成业绩，那蔚来之前干的一件事情就好理解了：9月18日，蔚来汽车发布公告，宣布公司在9月16日与蔚来中国股东之一合肥建恒新能源汽车投资基金合伙企业签署协议，NIO Nextev赎回该基金目前持有的蔚来中国50%股权，相当于蔚来中国8.6％股权。但其实说白了蔚来现在不缺订单，自然有不降价的底气，但等model 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