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DKforce
08-02
$英特尔(INTC)$
就算不及预期,也没有这个跌法啊,好歹CPU端还是老大
DKforce
07-10
老马没进来被百度截胡了?!google的历史要重演!?
港股异动 | 百度涨超9%,旗下无人驾驶平台有望盈利
DKforce
06-24
$英伟达(NVDA)$
人工智能是比星际运输更明确且全世界每个有实力的国家都在疯狂砸钱的方向。英伟达的长期优势不好说,短期优势没有任何企业能比拟。
DKforce
06-21
人工智能哪怕只是部分功能机器人得以应用,都是解放低级劳动力的巨大提升。说第三次工业革命一点也不为过。所以哪怕最低限度的范围开发人工智能 都是人类眼前最大的机会。(大饼能不能摊出来还得有人先画,可能几年也可能几百年)
朱啸虎:年底GPT-5达不到预期,英伟达市值就“完蛋了”
DKforce
06-14
$英伟达(NVDA)$
一步之遥登顶全球市值巅峰
DKforce
03-08
$英伟达(NVDA)$
微软之后下一个三十年是人工智能
DKforce
02-23
$英伟达(NVDA)$
垂直向上[财迷]
DKforce
02-22
英伟达在硬件和生态上的领先无可阻挡。下一个20年属于英伟达
DKforce
02-22
$英伟达(NVDA)$
相信时代,Ai引领人类进入新纪元
DKforce
02-01
$英伟达(NVDA)$
只是个开始,只要人类往人工智能这头走,只要算力还是第一生产力,那英伟达就是爱因斯坦时代的通用
DKforce
2020-07-10
$贵州茅台(600519)$
太讽刺了,实在无法理解。喝茅台是能开发智力还是能延长寿命?
DKforce
2018-10-23
$英伟达(NVDA)$ 老黄是要黄了吗,AI噱头玩完,准备卖大楼了?
DKforce
2018-09-19
$英伟达(NVDA)$ 看来英伟达的新显卡很不乐观啊
DKforce
2018-09-15
$AMD(AMD)$ 300亿了。2年翻10倍,苏妈V5
DKforce
2018-09-14
$苹果(AAPL)$ 一天上下几百亿美金的股票。。。。难怪对手机进化越来越随便了
DKforce
2018-08-15
$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 才抛2000多万就跌了12个点,中钙真的缺钙
DKforce
2018-08-15
$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 为稳经济,强行开始去泡沫去杠杆。
DKforce
2018-08-08
$标普500(.INX)$ 高开高走,低开高走,总有种错觉,加速发展的美国很快就要冲向宇宙了
DKforce
2018-07-18
$英伟达(NVDA)$ 人工智能到底是昙花一现还是新时代的开始。会不会像当年机器人狂热一样,即使过了半个世纪也没能像当年好莱坞大片描述的那样走进民用,而是仅仅在工业领域发挥单一的性能。看看英伟达发布的AI产品,感觉再过个30年,才能普及民用。(如果英伟达还活着)
DKforce
2018-07-18
$标普500(.INX)$ 每天都是这套路,都看腻了
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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这个老大以后只能卖卖I3I5混低端市场了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":326109055652056,"gmtCreate":1720618060792,"gmtModify":1720618062727,"author":{"id":"3447070926168070","authorId":"3447070926168070","name":"DKforce","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"老马没进来被百度截胡了?!google的历史要重演!?","listText":"老马没进来被百度截胡了?!google的历史要重演!?","text":"老马没进来被百度截胡了?!google的历史要重演!?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326109055652056","repostId":"1180608184","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1180608184","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1720575311,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180608184?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-10 09:35","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"港股异动 | 百度涨超9%,旗下无人驾驶平台有望盈利","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180608184","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月10日, $百度集团-SW(09888)$ 高开近8%,截至发稿报94.15港元,涨幅9.15%,开盘不到5分钟成交额超4亿港元。消息面上,国泰君安在研报中指出,萝卜快跑有望实现无人驾驶网约车商业模式盈利。萝卜快跑是百度旗下自动驾驶出行服务平台,已经于11个城市开放载人测试运营服务,并且在北京、武汉、重庆、深圳、上海开展全无人自动驾驶出行服务测试。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>7月10日, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a> 高开近8%,截至发稿报94.15港元,涨幅9.15%,开盘不到5分钟成交额超4亿港元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2842f3f102ad304631d8a97cd19266f0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>消息面上,国泰君安在研报中指出,<strong>萝卜快跑有望实现无人驾驶网约车商业模式盈利。</strong>萝卜快跑是百度旗下自动驾驶出行服务平台,已经于11个城市开放载人测试运营服务,并且在北京、武汉、重庆、深圳、上海开展全无人自动驾驶出行服务测试。</p><p>研报指出无人驾驶网约车相较于有人驾驶版本,价格更低,乘客体验更好。根据萝卜快跑计划,2024年将实现武汉全程覆盖,并投入1000辆第六代量产无人车运营。预计未来随着投放量的增加,单车运营成本将显著降低,规模效应或将体现。萝卜快跑预计2024年底在武汉实现盈亏平衡,2025年实现盈利。</p><p>研报投资建议:萝卜快跑在武汉的商业模式成功有望异地复制,自动驾驶或将挑战出租车网约车行业,投资方向主要有三个。1、掌握自动驾驶技术的互联网公司;2、为互联网公司代工整车及零部件或IT服务的产业链企业;3、自动驾驶基础设施车路云相关企业。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>港股异动 | 百度涨超9%,旗下无人驾驶平台有望盈利</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港股异动 | 百度涨超9%,旗下无人驾驶平台有望盈利\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-07-10 09:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>7月10日, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a> 高开近8%,截至发稿报94.15港元,涨幅9.15%,开盘不到5分钟成交额超4亿港元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2842f3f102ad304631d8a97cd19266f0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>消息面上,国泰君安在研报中指出,<strong>萝卜快跑有望实现无人驾驶网约车商业模式盈利。</strong>萝卜快跑是百度旗下自动驾驶出行服务平台,已经于11个城市开放载人测试运营服务,并且在北京、武汉、重庆、深圳、上海开展全无人自动驾驶出行服务测试。</p><p>研报指出无人驾驶网约车相较于有人驾驶版本,价格更低,乘客体验更好。根据萝卜快跑计划,2024年将实现武汉全程覆盖,并投入1000辆第六代量产无人车运营。预计未来随着投放量的增加,单车运营成本将显著降低,规模效应或将体现。萝卜快跑预计2024年底在武汉实现盈亏平衡,2025年实现盈利。</p><p>研报投资建议:萝卜快跑在武汉的商业模式成功有望异地复制,自动驾驶或将挑战出租车网约车行业,投资方向主要有三个。1、掌握自动驾驶技术的互联网公司;2、为互联网公司代工整车及零部件或IT服务的产业链企业;3、自动驾驶基础设施车路云相关企业。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cb3c6c3c55603d00a14ee3389850b7f","relate_stocks":{"09888":"百度集团-SW","BIDU":"百度"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180608184","content_text":"7月10日, 百度集团-SW 高开近8%,截至发稿报94.15港元,涨幅9.15%,开盘不到5分钟成交额超4亿港元。消息面上,国泰君安在研报中指出,萝卜快跑有望实现无人驾驶网约车商业模式盈利。萝卜快跑是百度旗下自动驾驶出行服务平台,已经于11个城市开放载人测试运营服务,并且在北京、武汉、重庆、深圳、上海开展全无人自动驾驶出行服务测试。研报指出无人驾驶网约车相较于有人驾驶版本,价格更低,乘客体验更好。根据萝卜快跑计划,2024年将实现武汉全程覆盖,并投入1000辆第六代量产无人车运营。预计未来随着投放量的增加,单车运营成本将显著降低,规模效应或将体现。萝卜快跑预计2024年底在武汉实现盈亏平衡,2025年实现盈利。研报投资建议:萝卜快跑在武汉的商业模式成功有望异地复制,自动驾驶或将挑战出租车网约车行业,投资方向主要有三个。1、掌握自动驾驶技术的互联网公司;2、为互联网公司代工整车及零部件或IT服务的产业链企业;3、自动驾驶基础设施车路云相关企业。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":320286893293736,"gmtCreate":1719227789305,"gmtModify":1719227791293,"author":{"id":"3447070926168070","authorId":"3447070926168070","name":"DKforce","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 人工智能是比星际运输更明确且全世界每个有实力的国家都在疯狂砸钱的方向。英伟达的长期优势不好说,短期优势没有任何企业能比拟。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 人工智能是比星际运输更明确且全世界每个有实力的国家都在疯狂砸钱的方向。英伟达的长期优势不好说,短期优势没有任何企业能比拟。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 人工智能是比星际运输更明确且全世界每个有实力的国家都在疯狂砸钱的方向。英伟达的长期优势不好说,短期优势没有任何企业能比拟。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320286893293736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":510,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319293462184152,"gmtCreate":1718982403468,"gmtModify":1718982405589,"author":{"id":"3447070926168070","authorId":"3447070926168070","name":"DKforce","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"人工智能哪怕只是部分功能机器人得以应用,都是解放低级劳动力的巨大提升。说第三次工业革命一点也不为过。所以哪怕最低限度的范围开发人工智能 都是人类眼前最大的机会。(大饼能不能摊出来还得有人先画,可能几年也可能几百年)","listText":"人工智能哪怕只是部分功能机器人得以应用,都是解放低级劳动力的巨大提升。说第三次工业革命一点也不为过。所以哪怕最低限度的范围开发人工智能 都是人类眼前最大的机会。(大饼能不能摊出来还得有人先画,可能几年也可能几百年)","text":"人工智能哪怕只是部分功能机器人得以应用,都是解放低级劳动力的巨大提升。说第三次工业革命一点也不为过。所以哪怕最低限度的范围开发人工智能 都是人类眼前最大的机会。(大饼能不能摊出来还得有人先画,可能几年也可能几百年)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319293462184152","repostId":"1144695188","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1144695188","pubTimestamp":1718955980,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144695188?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-21 15:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"朱啸虎:年底GPT-5达不到预期,英伟达市值就“完蛋了”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144695188","media":"新浪科技","summary":"大部分被AI取代的人,是因为上班摸鱼太多了。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p> 文丨周文猛</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 在中国创投行业,“周期论”一直是被高频提及的话题。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 近日,金沙江创投主管合伙人朱啸虎表示,“当前,中国正在进入一个以10年为单位的长周期中,而在以前,周期的单位是2~3年。”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎指出,在周期变长的情况下,生成式AI、PC/移动互联网以及平价消费等领域,仍会出现新的机会点。而对于中国企业和中国消费者而言,都要追求性价比,“就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 此外,他还分享了自己对于AI投资、英伟达的理解。他预判,预计到今年年底,如果OpeanAI的GPT-5.0模型没能发布,或者能力未达到有效提升,英伟达全球第一的市值可能“就完蛋了”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 以下是《WeTalk》栏目整理的与朱啸虎对话要点,在保持原意的基础上略有修改。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>“中国现在一些AI创新,要比美国领先”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:您不投AI大模型公司,但会投AI应用,现在有开始看项目吗?最近流行一个说法是做To B软件的都不赚钱,软件企业都很惨,但AI投资To B又快于To C,你怎么看?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:第一,中国企业和中国消费者一样,都要追求性价比。我觉得中国最大问题是程序员太多了,全世界3000万,中国有700万,而且中国700万程序员工作特别努力,工作量都是别人的2-3倍以上。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 第二,实际上中国软件(29.490, 0.51, 1.76%)企业并不惨,大家就是忽视了汇率。中国的软件行业如果把两三亿人民币的收入,比作两三亿美金的收入,中国软件企业不比美国差的。中国只是因为人力成本便宜,国内生产服务业问题就是汇率。 </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 我认为,AI以后可能还是有机会,因为AI可以帮助企业降本增效再升一个数量级,这个时候客户就非常愿意付钱。我就用AI赋能的软件,可能比传统软件要在中国更有机会点,就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比。然后AI软件同样给企业客户创造极致性价比,这个时候客户很愿意付钱。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:你现在有跟硅谷的团队开AI会议吗?之前有传中国投资人已经不参与会议了?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:开会的,但是以前专门有开一个关于AI对中国创新的会,现在我们还是,但更多的是我们和美国人讲,我们在中国的AI应用上有哪些创新。中国现在的一些AI创新,其实要比美国领先的,第一是数据多,第二是很多时候现在AI达不到100%的准确,在很细分领域可能是60%左右,最好可能80%多,剩下的工作基本是需要人工补齐的,但是需要人工补齐这块,中国肯定是有优势的。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>“年底GPT-5.0达不到预期,英伟达市值就完蛋了”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:你怎么看英伟达的?他也是AI的底层,现在市值已经全球第一了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:就看Scaling Law(规模法则)有没有效果,如果Scaling Law无效了,它的股价就会跌得一塌糊涂。要看到今年底,OpeanAI能不能发布GPT-5.0,如果是10万-20万张GPU堆算力砸下去,还见不到(GPT)智能能力提升,那英伟达他就完蛋了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 当然,黄教主(黄仁勋)确实很会销售,他搞了一个主权AI,想让每个国家都要去买自己的AI芯片。所以他会创造概念去销售,今年的股价应该是能撑得住的,但是如果到年底GPT-5.0还做不出来,大家怀疑,就开始危险了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:前两天苹果提出了一个Apple Intelligence,也可以理解为端侧AI,你怎么看这个事情?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:苹果的发布会非常有意思,它至少说明两个问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 第一,最重要的是用户体验,而不是技术。你看iPad 新增的那个计算器,你说有啥技术?其实没啥技术,但是用户体验特别好。而且苹果重新定义了入口问题,今天它也可以使用OpenAI的GPT了,但他不给GPT导用户,说明苹果的用户信息不给OpenAI,只统一调接口去访问这个服务就行了,很和谐。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 第二,苹果可以随时切掉OpenAI的服务。之前谷歌为进入苹果生态,每年给苹果支付100多亿美金,今天苹果和OpenAI双方是免费的,如果谷歌的Gemini追上来了,然后再给苹果支付100亿美金,iPhone肯定也会用。所以,最终还是入口为王,而且苹果自己也在做大模型,如果一直没有GPT-5.0,苹果大模型性能上来后,可能就用自己的GPT了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>“大部分被AI取代的人,是因为上班摸鱼太多了”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:如果给想进入AI领域的投资者提一些建议,你会说什么?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:你能不能给你的用户创造一个数量级以上的价值,让你的用户对这样的产品尖叫“哇”,这样的极致效果。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:还会有这样的产品吗?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:很多,你需要聚焦到一个垂直行业,在这个行业里面生根,真正懂你的客户,知道他们要什么东西。而且知道什么事情是今天AI能做的,或者你加20%的人都能够补齐的。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:对个人有什么建议呢?我们正在经历长周期,而且大家对AI的发展也比较焦虑,它什么都能做!</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:AI肯定不可能100%取代人类,我觉得达到80%已经很了不起了,在很多细分领域,很多大模型还只能达到50%左右。你只要把你工作效率变得很高,你的表现不要比下面一半的人差,就可以了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 大部分人为什么被取代,完全是因为上班摸鱼太多,没有用智商。</p></body></html>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>朱啸虎:年底GPT-5达不到预期,英伟达市值就“完蛋了”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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*/\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n朱啸虎:年底GPT-5达不到预期,英伟达市值就“完蛋了”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-21 15:46 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2024-06-21/doc-inazntae1257659.shtml><strong>新浪科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文丨周文猛 在中国创投行业,“周期论”一直是被高频提及的话题。 近日,金沙江创投主管合伙人朱啸虎表示,“当前,中国正在进入一个以10年为单位的长周期中,而在以前,周期的单位是2~3年。” 朱啸虎指出,在周期变长的情况下,生成式AI、PC/移动互联网以及平价消费等领域,仍会出现新的机会点。而对于中国企业和中国消费者而言,都要追求性价比,“就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比”。 此外,他还...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2024-06-21/doc-inazntae1257659.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d788f727e26434db149309671116a447","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2024-06-21/doc-inazntae1257659.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144695188","content_text":"文丨周文猛 在中国创投行业,“周期论”一直是被高频提及的话题。 近日,金沙江创投主管合伙人朱啸虎表示,“当前,中国正在进入一个以10年为单位的长周期中,而在以前,周期的单位是2~3年。” 朱啸虎指出,在周期变长的情况下,生成式AI、PC/移动互联网以及平价消费等领域,仍会出现新的机会点。而对于中国企业和中国消费者而言,都要追求性价比,“就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比”。 此外,他还分享了自己对于AI投资、英伟达的理解。他预判,预计到今年年底,如果OpeanAI的GPT-5.0模型没能发布,或者能力未达到有效提升,英伟达全球第一的市值可能“就完蛋了”。 以下是《WeTalk》栏目整理的与朱啸虎对话要点,在保持原意的基础上略有修改。 “中国现在一些AI创新,要比美国领先” 新浪科技:您不投AI大模型公司,但会投AI应用,现在有开始看项目吗?最近流行一个说法是做To B软件的都不赚钱,软件企业都很惨,但AI投资To B又快于To C,你怎么看? 朱啸虎:第一,中国企业和中国消费者一样,都要追求性价比。我觉得中国最大问题是程序员太多了,全世界3000万,中国有700万,而且中国700万程序员工作特别努力,工作量都是别人的2-3倍以上。 第二,实际上中国软件(29.490, 0.51, 1.76%)企业并不惨,大家就是忽视了汇率。中国的软件行业如果把两三亿人民币的收入,比作两三亿美金的收入,中国软件企业不比美国差的。中国只是因为人力成本便宜,国内生产服务业问题就是汇率。 我认为,AI以后可能还是有机会,因为AI可以帮助企业降本增效再升一个数量级,这个时候客户就非常愿意付钱。我就用AI赋能的软件,可能比传统软件要在中国更有机会点,就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比。然后AI软件同样给企业客户创造极致性价比,这个时候客户很愿意付钱。 新浪科技:你现在有跟硅谷的团队开AI会议吗?之前有传中国投资人已经不参与会议了? 朱啸虎:开会的,但是以前专门有开一个关于AI对中国创新的会,现在我们还是,但更多的是我们和美国人讲,我们在中国的AI应用上有哪些创新。中国现在的一些AI创新,其实要比美国领先的,第一是数据多,第二是很多时候现在AI达不到100%的准确,在很细分领域可能是60%左右,最好可能80%多,剩下的工作基本是需要人工补齐的,但是需要人工补齐这块,中国肯定是有优势的。 “年底GPT-5.0达不到预期,英伟达市值就完蛋了” 新浪科技:你怎么看英伟达的?他也是AI的底层,现在市值已经全球第一了。 朱啸虎:就看Scaling Law(规模法则)有没有效果,如果Scaling Law无效了,它的股价就会跌得一塌糊涂。要看到今年底,OpeanAI能不能发布GPT-5.0,如果是10万-20万张GPU堆算力砸下去,还见不到(GPT)智能能力提升,那英伟达他就完蛋了。 当然,黄教主(黄仁勋)确实很会销售,他搞了一个主权AI,想让每个国家都要去买自己的AI芯片。所以他会创造概念去销售,今年的股价应该是能撑得住的,但是如果到年底GPT-5.0还做不出来,大家怀疑,就开始危险了。 新浪科技:前两天苹果提出了一个Apple Intelligence,也可以理解为端侧AI,你怎么看这个事情? 朱啸虎:苹果的发布会非常有意思,它至少说明两个问题。 第一,最重要的是用户体验,而不是技术。你看iPad 新增的那个计算器,你说有啥技术?其实没啥技术,但是用户体验特别好。而且苹果重新定义了入口问题,今天它也可以使用OpenAI的GPT了,但他不给GPT导用户,说明苹果的用户信息不给OpenAI,只统一调接口去访问这个服务就行了,很和谐。 第二,苹果可以随时切掉OpenAI的服务。之前谷歌为进入苹果生态,每年给苹果支付100多亿美金,今天苹果和OpenAI双方是免费的,如果谷歌的Gemini追上来了,然后再给苹果支付100亿美金,iPhone肯定也会用。所以,最终还是入口为王,而且苹果自己也在做大模型,如果一直没有GPT-5.0,苹果大模型性能上来后,可能就用自己的GPT了。 “大部分被AI取代的人,是因为上班摸鱼太多了” 新浪科技:如果给想进入AI领域的投资者提一些建议,你会说什么? 朱啸虎:你能不能给你的用户创造一个数量级以上的价值,让你的用户对这样的产品尖叫“哇”,这样的极致效果。 新浪科技:还会有这样的产品吗? 朱啸虎:很多,你需要聚焦到一个垂直行业,在这个行业里面生根,真正懂你的客户,知道他们要什么东西。而且知道什么事情是今天AI能做的,或者你加20%的人都能够补齐的。 新浪科技:对个人有什么建议呢?我们正在经历长周期,而且大家对AI的发展也比较焦虑,它什么都能做! 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