+关注
风叶
暂无个人介绍
IP属地:上海
19
关注
1
粉丝
0
主题
0
勋章
主贴
热门
风叶
2020-10-28
就这工夫,改标题为4000亿吧[财迷]
3800亿,比亚迪值吗?
风叶
2018-05-09
干
$微博(WB)$ 这是有人砸盘啊,这财报又不算差,不服就干
干
风叶
2017-12-22
电池门
$苹果(AAPL)$ 还搞个电池门
电池门
风叶
2017-11-08
携程亲子园出了这么大的事,大家觉得今晚涨还是跌
$携程网(CTRP)$携程出了这么大的事,大家觉得今晚涨还是跌
携程亲子园出了这么大的事,大家觉得今晚涨还是跌
风叶
2017-04-28
减税
$英伟达(NVDA)$ 这是要大涨啊
减税
风叶
2017-02-14
今天还会跌吗
$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今天还会跌吗?
今天还会跌吗
风叶
2017-02-11
等绿
$英伟达(NVDA)$ 等着绿
等绿
风叶
2017-02-07
为什么会涨呢
$网秦(NQ)$为什么会涨呢,奇怪
为什么会涨呢
去老虎APP查看更多动态
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3445311194150590","uuid":"3445311194150590","gmtCreate":1482217203472,"gmtModify":1483040473561,"name":"风叶","pinyin":"fyfengye","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":1,"headSize":19,"tweetSize":8,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":900,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.06.15","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.04.21","exceedPercentage":"93.40%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.59%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"上海","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":308310227,"gmtCreate":1603864000069,"gmtModify":1703831001357,"author":{"id":"3445311194150590","authorId":"3445311194150590","name":"风叶","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3445311194150590","authorIdStr":"3445311194150590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"就这工夫,改标题为4000亿吧[财迷] ","listText":"就这工夫,改标题为4000亿吧[财迷] ","text":"就这工夫,改标题为4000亿吧[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308310227","repostId":"1112994143","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1112994143","pubTimestamp":1603777248,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112994143?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-10-27 13:40","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"3800亿,比亚迪值吗?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112994143","media":"亿欧汽车","summary":"素有“金九银十”之称的车市终于在10月交出了漂亮的成绩单。\n10月13日,全国乘联会发布9月汽车市场数据。9月,乘用车市场零售达到191.0万辆,实现了连续3个月8%左右的近两年最高增速。更让市场惊喜","content":"<p>素有“金九银十”之称的车市终于在10月交出了漂亮的成绩单。</p>\n<p>10月13日,全国乘联会发布9月汽车市场数据。9月,乘用车市场零售达到191.0万辆,实现了连续3个月8%左右的近两年最高增速。更让市场惊喜的是,此前复苏态势缓于整体车市的新能源车市终于迎来较大幅度复苏,9月新能源乘用车批发销量突破12.5万,同比增长99.6%。</p>\n<p>车市回暖,销量超预期发展带来的利好正在显现,尤其在新能源汽车市场,多只股票的上涨很好地证明了这一观点。十月份以来,新能源板块整体上涨3.4%,其中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>上涨11.5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002074\">国轩高科</a>上涨14%。</p>\n<p>而作为国内新能源汽车的龙头企业,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>股价更是一路走高。最新股价显示,截至10月26日股市收盘,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>股价已经涨至139.96元,市值突破3800亿,对比今年年初股价47.63元,股价累计上涨逾190%,尤其是近两个月,股价上涨态势明显。</p>\n<p><b>这背后,不只得益于新能源汽车政策的推动,还与市场环境存在较大关系,围绕<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的新能源汽车股均处于走高态势。</b>加上近期比亚迪在销量及业绩方面取得的成绩,一切似乎欣欣向荣。但与此同时,这也使得外界怀疑比亚迪能否撑得起3800亿元的市值。</p>\n<p>亿欧汽车认为,资本市场看好比亚迪,主要由于其近期市场表现和长远发展的深层逻辑。截至目前,比亚迪已经在自己的赛道上进行了多领域业务布局,未来想象空间巨大。从长远角度来看,资本市场仍然处于高涨情绪当中,倘若比亚迪能够兑现自身潜力迎来业绩拐点,那么现在的市值很可能只是起点。</p>\n<p><b>01、股价连涨背后</b></p>\n<p>去年12月,工信部发布的规划中指出,2025年新能源汽车销量占比达25%左右,根据乘联会的计算,按照25%的销量目标,2019年到2025年的复合增速将超33%,未来发展空间巨大。</p>\n<p><b>随着新能源汽车市场崛起,作为行业领军企业的比亚迪,自然成了受资本市场热捧的那一个,这也是其股价连续增长的重要原因。</b></p>\n<p><b>在销量表现上,自2015年开始,比亚迪已经连续完成了全球新能源市场销量的四连冠,而在2019年全球销量市场上也仅次于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>。</b>今年以来,根据乘联会2020年1-8月数据,无论是纯电动市场还是插电混动市场,比亚迪均排名前二,综合市场占有率约12%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c105033f8faa603af229e14d5a449134\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"843\">制表人:亿欧汽车 郑伟雄</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc566c074dbee0f0286aeacdf04a71a3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"842\">制表人:亿欧汽车 郑伟雄</p>\n<p><b>在动力电池业务进展上,比亚迪的刀片电池也使得其在市场中的想象空间得到进一步提升。</b></p>\n<p>中汽协数据显示,9月份全国动力电池销量为6.9GWh,同比增长18.6%,其中三元电池销售3.5GWh,同比下降17.5%;磷酸铁锂电池销售3.4GWh,同比增长121.1%。也就是说,磷酸铁锂电池基本与三元电池基本势均力敌,这在过去两年多来是从未出现过的。</p>\n<p>据公开资料显示,比亚迪研发的刀片电池能量密度提高50%以上,大大改善了磷酸铁锂电池在续航能力方面与三元锂电池的差距,同时又保持了磷酸铁锂电池安全性好、使用寿命长的优点。如今,刀片电池已经搭载在比亚迪旗舰车型“汉”上,而未来有望推广至全新秦 EV、秦 Pro EV 和宋 Plus等车型。</p>\n<p>在产能扩张上,比亚迪刀片电池弗迪重庆工厂将在今年年底建成8条产线,以实现20GWh以上的年产能目标。今明两年规划新增26Gwh刀片电池产能,满足自身产品切换。此外,比亚迪计划将原有的30Gwh三元锂电池产能部分切换至刀片电池。</p>\n<p>值得一提的是,如今在汽车供应链上,比亚迪已经拥有完整的“三电”制造能力(电池、电机、电控),它同时还是国内最大的车规级IGBT厂商,最大的BMS厂商,<b>完整的供应链布局加强了比亚迪的成本控制和风险应对能力</b>。而在汽车业务之外,比亚迪的代工业务如消费电子制造,口罩加工等在过去一段时间也是频频释放利好,在疫情期间依然保持着良好的增长。</p>\n<p><b>02、3800亿,值吗?</b></p>\n<p>虽然在业务上已经进行了前瞻性布局,想象空间巨大,但3800亿元的市值,依然让行业认为比亚迪有被过分高估的风险。依照当下市值,比亚迪的市值已经超过了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600104\">上汽集团</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601238\">广汽集团</a>的市值总和,同样超过了造车新势力里股价扶摇直上的造车新势力<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>企业和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>的市值总和。</p>\n<p>这样的担心不无道理。显然,与传统汽车产业对比,比亚迪已经并非靠传统的汽车业务逻辑抬升市值空间,其已经被划入科技阵营,以此谋取资本市场注意。从特斯拉的估值强势超越丰田集团便可窥见一斑,这同时打开了新能源车企的估值天花板。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>、威马汽车等造车新势力以智能网联属性得到二级市场青睐,而偏向传统车企的比亚迪的估值显然讲得是另外一个故事。比亚迪作为新能源汽车产业龙头企业,占据着特殊位置,在整车、零部件、消费电子、电池及光伏业务、城轨交通领域均有布局,这使得其可想象空间变大。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29c34e1aa60f27225f989110d35d00f2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"585\">制表人:亿欧汽车 郑伟雄</p>\n<p>但这样的想象空间究竟有多大?也要被打上大大的问号。</p>\n<p>从其营收构成来看,比亚迪2017年主营业务收入占比中,汽车业务占比达到54%,手机部件及组装业务占比达到38%,二次充电电池及光伏业务达到8%。而2018年这三部分构成比例是58.44%、32.47%和6.88%,2019年的构成比例是49.53%、41.79%、8.22%。从其三年主营收入构成表现来看,比亚迪收入构成较为稳定。</p>\n<p>但根据其2019年数据可以判断,其营收下降主要由汽车业务所致。其在汽车及产品相关的收入同比下降16.76%。数据显示,2019年比亚迪汽车总销量为46.1万辆,同比下滑11.39%。而2020年1-9月,比亚迪汽车销量同比下滑幅度达到19.9%。这意味着其在2020年结束前还有很大的挑战。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7975c84f6309139b7b1874a7310a38b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"843\">制表人:亿欧汽车 郑伟雄</p>\n<p>根据财报显示,比亚迪2017-2019年的归母净利润分别为人民币40.66亿、27.8亿、16.14亿,净利润持续下滑,而不得不提的是,净利润中很大一部分来自于政府补贴,财报数据显示,2017年政府对于比亚迪的补助数额为12.75亿元,2018年这一数据为20.73亿元,2019年比亚迪计入当期损益的政府补助为14.83亿元。剔除政府补贴后比亚迪的盈利表现更不理想。</p>\n<p>数据的背后正是比亚迪发展的真实写照。从新能源市场竞争环境而言,如今国内新能源市场已经进入中场战事,虽然在今年9月,比亚迪旗下旗舰车型比亚迪“汉”成功入围高端轿车市场,销量大幅增长,但如今外有特斯拉降价冲量,内有造车新势力<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>等异军突起,在此背景下,人们不得不担忧,未来补贴退坡后的比亚迪还能否继续维持此前的龙头地位。</p>\n<p>比亚迪引以为傲的动力电池业务目前也仍处在追赶者的地位。数据显示,2020上半年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600482\">中国动力</a>电池市场份额<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>以绝对优势拿下48.7%,比亚迪以14.2%的市场份额屈居第三。而放眼全球,比亚迪6%的市场份额也落后于松下、宁德时代和LG化学,这对于比亚迪来说既是机遇也是挑战。</p>\n<p>但从更长远的角度判断,亿欧汽车认为,比亚迪在三电领域的想象空间将成为其建立护城河的关键领域。</p>\n<p>过去比亚迪虽然在电池、电机、电控上都实现了自主自控,但是零部件基本对内供应,仍具有较大成长空间,<b>现阶段随着比亚迪开放供应链的战略转型和产能提升,动力电池外供将开始进入兑现期。</b>国内方面,公司已经配套长安、小康等车企,并已进入北汽新能源公告;海外客户方面,已获得丰田定点,并有望供应福特、奥迪等全球知名车企。比亚迪凭借刀片电池的技术突破有望提升其在全球动力电池的供应链地位。</p>\n<p>亿欧汽车认为多年来深扎新能源领域的比亚迪到了开花结果的时候,引来业绩拐点。而未来,业务多元化、开放化的比亚迪有望成为新能源解决方案供应商,大幅提升公司价值。</p>\n<p>比亚迪值3800亿吗?事实上,资本市场本是一场豪赌,被寄予厚望的比亚迪还没到高枕无忧的时候,能否实现自己的潜力将重塑市场对于比亚迪的信心。</p>","source":"lsy1582080587274","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3800亿,比亚迪值吗?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3800亿,比亚迪值吗?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-10-27 13:40 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/B1KBEh6uH0pQfZ2doBDjjw><strong>亿欧汽车</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>素有“金九银十”之称的车市终于在10月交出了漂亮的成绩单。\n10月13日,全国乘联会发布9月汽车市场数据。9月,乘用车市场零售达到191.0万辆,实现了连续3个月8%左右的近两年最高增速。更让市场惊喜的是,此前复苏态势缓于整体车市的新能源车市终于迎来较大幅度复苏,9月新能源乘用车批发销量突破12.5万,同比增长99.6%。\n车市回暖,销量超预期发展带来的利好正在显现,尤其在新能源汽车市场,多只股票...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/B1KBEh6uH0pQfZ2doBDjjw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9490fabe3a1e46bbe1e5ef6aa5be80fc","relate_stocks":{"002594":"比亚迪","01211":"比亚迪股份"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/B1KBEh6uH0pQfZ2doBDjjw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112994143","content_text":"素有“金九银十”之称的车市终于在10月交出了漂亮的成绩单。\n10月13日,全国乘联会发布9月汽车市场数据。9月,乘用车市场零售达到191.0万辆,实现了连续3个月8%左右的近两年最高增速。更让市场惊喜的是,此前复苏态势缓于整体车市的新能源车市终于迎来较大幅度复苏,9月新能源乘用车批发销量突破12.5万,同比增长99.6%。\n车市回暖,销量超预期发展带来的利好正在显现,尤其在新能源汽车市场,多只股票的上涨很好地证明了这一观点。十月份以来,新能源板块整体上涨3.4%,其中宁德时代上涨11.5%,国轩高科上涨14%。\n而作为国内新能源汽车的龙头企业,比亚迪股价更是一路走高。最新股价显示,截至10月26日股市收盘,比亚迪股价已经涨至139.96元,市值突破3800亿,对比今年年初股价47.63元,股价累计上涨逾190%,尤其是近两个月,股价上涨态势明显。\n这背后,不只得益于新能源汽车政策的推动,还与市场环境存在较大关系,围绕特斯拉的新能源汽车股均处于走高态势。加上近期比亚迪在销量及业绩方面取得的成绩,一切似乎欣欣向荣。但与此同时,这也使得外界怀疑比亚迪能否撑得起3800亿元的市值。\n亿欧汽车认为,资本市场看好比亚迪,主要由于其近期市场表现和长远发展的深层逻辑。截至目前,比亚迪已经在自己的赛道上进行了多领域业务布局,未来想象空间巨大。从长远角度来看,资本市场仍然处于高涨情绪当中,倘若比亚迪能够兑现自身潜力迎来业绩拐点,那么现在的市值很可能只是起点。\n01、股价连涨背后\n去年12月,工信部发布的规划中指出,2025年新能源汽车销量占比达25%左右,根据乘联会的计算,按照25%的销量目标,2019年到2025年的复合增速将超33%,未来发展空间巨大。\n随着新能源汽车市场崛起,作为行业领军企业的比亚迪,自然成了受资本市场热捧的那一个,这也是其股价连续增长的重要原因。\n在销量表现上,自2015年开始,比亚迪已经连续完成了全球新能源市场销量的四连冠,而在2019年全球销量市场上也仅次于特斯拉。今年以来,根据乘联会2020年1-8月数据,无论是纯电动市场还是插电混动市场,比亚迪均排名前二,综合市场占有率约12%。\n制表人:亿欧汽车 郑伟雄\n制表人:亿欧汽车 郑伟雄\n在动力电池业务进展上,比亚迪的刀片电池也使得其在市场中的想象空间得到进一步提升。\n中汽协数据显示,9月份全国动力电池销量为6.9GWh,同比增长18.6%,其中三元电池销售3.5GWh,同比下降17.5%;磷酸铁锂电池销售3.4GWh,同比增长121.1%。也就是说,磷酸铁锂电池基本与三元电池基本势均力敌,这在过去两年多来是从未出现过的。\n据公开资料显示,比亚迪研发的刀片电池能量密度提高50%以上,大大改善了磷酸铁锂电池在续航能力方面与三元锂电池的差距,同时又保持了磷酸铁锂电池安全性好、使用寿命长的优点。如今,刀片电池已经搭载在比亚迪旗舰车型“汉”上,而未来有望推广至全新秦 EV、秦 Pro EV 和宋 Plus等车型。\n在产能扩张上,比亚迪刀片电池弗迪重庆工厂将在今年年底建成8条产线,以实现20GWh以上的年产能目标。今明两年规划新增26Gwh刀片电池产能,满足自身产品切换。此外,比亚迪计划将原有的30Gwh三元锂电池产能部分切换至刀片电池。\n值得一提的是,如今在汽车供应链上,比亚迪已经拥有完整的“三电”制造能力(电池、电机、电控),它同时还是国内最大的车规级IGBT厂商,最大的BMS厂商,完整的供应链布局加强了比亚迪的成本控制和风险应对能力。而在汽车业务之外,比亚迪的代工业务如消费电子制造,口罩加工等在过去一段时间也是频频释放利好,在疫情期间依然保持着良好的增长。\n02、3800亿,值吗?\n虽然在业务上已经进行了前瞻性布局,想象空间巨大,但3800亿元的市值,依然让行业认为比亚迪有被过分高估的风险。依照当下市值,比亚迪的市值已经超过了上汽集团和广汽集团的市值总和,同样超过了造车新势力里股价扶摇直上的造车新势力蔚来企业和理想汽车的市值总和。\n这样的担心不无道理。显然,与传统汽车产业对比,比亚迪已经并非靠传统的汽车业务逻辑抬升市值空间,其已经被划入科技阵营,以此谋取资本市场注意。从特斯拉的估值强势超越丰田集团便可窥见一斑,这同时打开了新能源车企的估值天花板。\n蔚来、小鹏汽车、威马汽车等造车新势力以智能网联属性得到二级市场青睐,而偏向传统车企的比亚迪的估值显然讲得是另外一个故事。比亚迪作为新能源汽车产业龙头企业,占据着特殊位置,在整车、零部件、消费电子、电池及光伏业务、城轨交通领域均有布局,这使得其可想象空间变大。\n制表人:亿欧汽车 郑伟雄\n但这样的想象空间究竟有多大?也要被打上大大的问号。\n从其营收构成来看,比亚迪2017年主营业务收入占比中,汽车业务占比达到54%,手机部件及组装业务占比达到38%,二次充电电池及光伏业务达到8%。而2018年这三部分构成比例是58.44%、32.47%和6.88%,2019年的构成比例是49.53%、41.79%、8.22%。从其三年主营收入构成表现来看,比亚迪收入构成较为稳定。\n但根据其2019年数据可以判断,其营收下降主要由汽车业务所致。其在汽车及产品相关的收入同比下降16.76%。数据显示,2019年比亚迪汽车总销量为46.1万辆,同比下滑11.39%。而2020年1-9月,比亚迪汽车销量同比下滑幅度达到19.9%。这意味着其在2020年结束前还有很大的挑战。\n制表人:亿欧汽车 郑伟雄\n根据财报显示,比亚迪2017-2019年的归母净利润分别为人民币40.66亿、27.8亿、16.14亿,净利润持续下滑,而不得不提的是,净利润中很大一部分来自于政府补贴,财报数据显示,2017年政府对于比亚迪的补助数额为12.75亿元,2018年这一数据为20.73亿元,2019年比亚迪计入当期损益的政府补助为14.83亿元。剔除政府补贴后比亚迪的盈利表现更不理想。\n数据的背后正是比亚迪发展的真实写照。从新能源市场竞争环境而言,如今国内新能源市场已经进入中场战事,虽然在今年9月,比亚迪旗下旗舰车型比亚迪“汉”成功入围高端轿车市场,销量大幅增长,但如今外有特斯拉降价冲量,内有造车新势力小鹏汽车等异军突起,在此背景下,人们不得不担忧,未来补贴退坡后的比亚迪还能否继续维持此前的龙头地位。\n比亚迪引以为傲的动力电池业务目前也仍处在追赶者的地位。数据显示,2020上半年中国动力电池市场份额宁德时代以绝对优势拿下48.7%,比亚迪以14.2%的市场份额屈居第三。而放眼全球,比亚迪6%的市场份额也落后于松下、宁德时代和LG化学,这对于比亚迪来说既是机遇也是挑战。\n但从更长远的角度判断,亿欧汽车认为,比亚迪在三电领域的想象空间将成为其建立护城河的关键领域。\n过去比亚迪虽然在电池、电机、电控上都实现了自主自控,但是零部件基本对内供应,仍具有较大成长空间,现阶段随着比亚迪开放供应链的战略转型和产能提升,动力电池外供将开始进入兑现期。国内方面,公司已经配套长安、小康等车企,并已进入北汽新能源公告;海外客户方面,已获得丰田定点,并有望供应福特、奥迪等全球知名车企。比亚迪凭借刀片电池的技术突破有望提升其在全球动力电池的供应链地位。\n亿欧汽车认为多年来深扎新能源领域的比亚迪到了开花结果的时候,引来业绩拐点。而未来,业务多元化、开放化的比亚迪有望成为新能源解决方案供应商,大幅提升公司价值。\n比亚迪值3800亿吗?事实上,资本市场本是一场豪赌,被寄予厚望的比亚迪还没到高枕无忧的时候,能否实现自己的潜力将重塑市场对于比亚迪的信心。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":187586,"gmtCreate":1525879594066,"gmtModify":1704892735468,"author":{"id":"3445311194150590","authorId":"3445311194150590","name":"风叶","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3445311194150590","authorIdStr":"3445311194150590"},"themes":[],"title":"干","htmlText":"$微博(WB)$ 这是有人砸盘啊,这财报又不算差,不服就干","listText":"$微博(WB)$ 这是有人砸盘啊,这财报又不算差,不服就干","text":"$微博(WB)$ 这是有人砸盘啊,这财报又不算差,不服就干","images":[{"img":"https://static.laohu8.com/2bda43479054a0c0d0fd072d4779c275"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187586","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":136389,"gmtCreate":1513932315974,"gmtModify":1704886383464,"author":{"id":"3445311194150590","authorId":"3445311194150590","name":"风叶","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3445311194150590","authorIdStr":"3445311194150590"},"themes":[],"title":"电池门","htmlText":"$苹果(AAPL)$ 还搞个电池门","listText":"$苹果(AAPL)$ 还搞个电池门","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$ 还搞个电池门","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136389","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":111989,"gmtCreate":1510128565859,"gmtModify":1704883358531,"author":{"id":"3445311194150590","authorId":"3445311194150590","name":"风叶","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3445311194150590","authorIdStr":"3445311194150590"},"themes":[],"title":"携程亲子园出了这么大的事,大家觉得今晚涨还是跌","htmlText":"$携程网(CTRP)$携程出了这么大的事,大家觉得今晚涨还是跌","listText":"$携程网(CTRP)$携程出了这么大的事,大家觉得今晚涨还是跌","text":"$携程网(CTRP)$携程出了这么大的事,大家觉得今晚涨还是跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111989","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"20727972514030","authorId":"20727972514030","name":"Tony特别帅","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61f671464b0bc8103579e8d0e2197c48","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"20727972514030","authorIdStr":"20727972514030"},"content":"这跟携程没大关系啊。。。外包出的篓子,还不是工作外包,业务kpi有问题月考核就能发现,这要出问题肯定是孩子出事儿了才知道。大谈携程文化有问题为时尚早,看他们后续如何处理才能体现携程态度。","text":"这跟携程没大关系啊。。。外包出的篓子,还不是工作外包,业务kpi有问题月考核就能发现,这要出问题肯定是孩子出事儿了才知道。大谈携程文化有问题为时尚早,看他们后续如何处理才能体现携程态度。","html":"这跟携程没大关系啊。。。外包出的篓子,还不是工作外包,业务kpi有问题月考核就能发现,这要出问题肯定是孩子出事儿了才知道。大谈携程文化有问题为时尚早,看他们后续如何处理才能体现携程态度。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":56274,"gmtCreate":1493383487374,"gmtModify":1704876546308,"author":{"id":"3445311194150590","authorId":"3445311194150590","name":"风叶","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3445311194150590","authorIdStr":"3445311194150590"},"themes":[],"title":"减税","htmlText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 这是要大涨啊","listText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 这是要大涨啊","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 这是要大涨啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/56274","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":44566,"gmtCreate":1487053223871,"gmtModify":1704875078339,"author":{"id":"3445311194150590","authorId":"3445311194150590","name":"风叶","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3445311194150590","authorIdStr":"3445311194150590"},"themes":[],"title":"今天还会跌吗","htmlText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今天还会跌吗?","listText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今天还会跌吗?","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今天还会跌吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/44566","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":44327,"gmtCreate":1486745666537,"gmtModify":1704875046365,"author":{"id":"3445311194150590","authorId":"3445311194150590","name":"风叶","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3445311194150590","authorIdStr":"3445311194150590"},"themes":[],"title":"等绿","htmlText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 等着绿","listText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 等着绿","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 等着绿","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/44327","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1052,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":43864,"gmtCreate":1486479773717,"gmtModify":1704874986077,"author":{"id":"3445311194150590","authorId":"3445311194150590","name":"风叶","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3445311194150590","authorIdStr":"3445311194150590"},"themes":[],"title":"为什么会涨呢","htmlText":"$网秦(NQ)$为什么会涨呢,奇怪","listText":"$网秦(NQ)$为什么会涨呢,奇怪","text":"$网秦(NQ)$为什么会涨呢,奇怪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/43864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":111989,"gmtCreate":1510128565859,"gmtModify":1704883358531,"author":{"id":"3445311194150590","authorId":"3445311194150590","name":"风叶","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3445311194150590","idStr":"3445311194150590"},"themes":[],"title":"携程亲子园出了这么大的事,大家觉得今晚涨还是跌","htmlText":"$携程网(CTRP)$携程出了这么大的事,大家觉得今晚涨还是跌","listText":"$携程网(CTRP)$携程出了这么大的事,大家觉得今晚涨还是跌","text":"$携程网(CTRP)$携程出了这么大的事,大家觉得今晚涨还是跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111989","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"20727972514030","authorId":"20727972514030","name":"Tony特别帅","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61f671464b0bc8103579e8d0e2197c48","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"20727972514030","idStr":"20727972514030"},"content":"这跟携程没大关系啊。。。外包出的篓子,还不是工作外包,业务kpi有问题月考核就能发现,这要出问题肯定是孩子出事儿了才知道。大谈携程文化有问题为时尚早,看他们后续如何处理才能体现携程态度。","text":"这跟携程没大关系啊。。。外包出的篓子,还不是工作外包,业务kpi有问题月考核就能发现,这要出问题肯定是孩子出事儿了才知道。大谈携程文化有问题为时尚早,看他们后续如何处理才能体现携程态度。","html":"这跟携程没大关系啊。。。外包出的篓子,还不是工作外包,业务kpi有问题月考核就能发现,这要出问题肯定是孩子出事儿了才知道。大谈携程文化有问题为时尚早,看他们后续如何处理才能体现携程态度。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":187586,"gmtCreate":1525879594066,"gmtModify":1704892735468,"author":{"id":"3445311194150590","authorId":"3445311194150590","name":"风叶","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3445311194150590","idStr":"3445311194150590"},"themes":[],"title":"干","htmlText":"$微博(WB)$ 这是有人砸盘啊,这财报又不算差,不服就干","listText":"$微博(WB)$ 这是有人砸盘啊,这财报又不算差,不服就干","text":"$微博(WB)$ 这是有人砸盘啊,这财报又不算差,不服就干","images":[{"img":"https://static.laohu8.com/2bda43479054a0c0d0fd072d4779c275"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187586","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":43864,"gmtCreate":1486479773717,"gmtModify":1704874986077,"author":{"id":"3445311194150590","authorId":"3445311194150590","name":"风叶","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3445311194150590","idStr":"3445311194150590"},"themes":[],"title":"为什么会涨呢","htmlText":"$网秦(NQ)$为什么会涨呢,奇怪","listText":"$网秦(NQ)$为什么会涨呢,奇怪","text":"$网秦(NQ)$为什么会涨呢,奇怪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/43864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":44566,"gmtCreate":1487053223871,"gmtModify":1704875078339,"author":{"id":"3445311194150590","authorId":"3445311194150590","name":"风叶","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3445311194150590","idStr":"3445311194150590"},"themes":[],"title":"今天还会跌吗","htmlText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今天还会跌吗?","listText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今天还会跌吗?","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今天还会跌吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/44566","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":44327,"gmtCreate":1486745666537,"gmtModify":1704875046365,"author":{"id":"3445311194150590","authorId":"3445311194150590","name":"风叶","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3445311194150590","idStr":"3445311194150590"},"themes":[],"title":"等绿","htmlText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 等着绿","listText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 等着绿","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 等着绿","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/44327","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1052,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":56274,"gmtCreate":1493383487374,"gmtModify":1704876546308,"author":{"id":"3445311194150590","authorId":"3445311194150590","name":"风叶","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3445311194150590","idStr":"3445311194150590"},"themes":[],"title":"减税","htmlText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 这是要大涨啊","listText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 这是要大涨啊","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 这是要大涨啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/56274","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308310227,"gmtCreate":1603864000069,"gmtModify":1703831001357,"author":{"id":"3445311194150590","authorId":"3445311194150590","name":"风叶","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3445311194150590","idStr":"3445311194150590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"就这工夫,改标题为4000亿吧[财迷] ","listText":"就这工夫,改标题为4000亿吧[财迷] ","text":"就这工夫,改标题为4000亿吧[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308310227","repostId":"1112994143","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":136389,"gmtCreate":1513932315974,"gmtModify":1704886383464,"author":{"id":"3445311194150590","authorId":"3445311194150590","name":"风叶","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3445311194150590","idStr":"3445311194150590"},"themes":[],"title":"电池门","htmlText":"$苹果(AAPL)$ 还搞个电池门","listText":"$苹果(AAPL)$ 还搞个电池门","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$ 还搞个电池门","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136389","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}