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股有意思
2021-07-03
$一起教育科技(YQ)$
打新中签认识了你[流泪]
股有意思
2021-07-03
$滴滴(DIDI)$
感谢滴滴,把打车的钱赚回来了 [捂脸]
股有意思
2021-07-01
$滴滴(DIDI)$
那么大的一个公司1000亿 有希望吧
股有意思
2021-06-03
$AMC院线(AMC)$
收盘后会大跌看着吧
股有意思
2021-04-08
一天就已经接盘完毕了
抱歉,原内容已删除
股有意思
2020-06-03
$金山云(KC)$
一买进就跌。。
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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22:47","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"复盘2018年那次大股东抛售:腾讯会再次“腰斩”吗","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176614844","media":"海榕财富风险投研","summary":"大家很容易低估重仓持有一个公司的难度。","content":"<p>周三盘后出了一个大消息,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>的第一大股东MIH披露:<b>计划出售1.9亿股的腾讯股份给全球机构投资者,这笔交易价值1141亿港元, 占总股本的2%,每股作价575至595港元,当于4月7日收市价629.5港元折让5.5%至8.7%。</b></p><p>腾讯的大股东MIH是一家 南非的传媒公司,在2001年腾讯生死存亡之际 雪中送炭,MIH出资3200万美元 从 李泽楷 收购了20%腾讯股份,从IDG手中收购了12.8%的股份,又从腾讯创始团队中收购了13.5%的股份,最后以接近50%的持股成为腾讯第一大股东。在腾讯 2004 年港股市场IPO的时候,MIH的股份稀释为 35.7%,上市后MIH连续持有腾讯14年 没有减持一股,非常坚定的看好腾讯的发展, 用张坤的话<b>大家很容易低估重仓持有一个公司的难度。</b></p><p>在2018年3月23日, MIH 第一次宣布减持腾讯2%的股份, 同时承诺3年内不再减持腾讯股份 。 回顾一下2018年<b>3月23日的交易情况, 腾讯当天股价低开 7.85%, 然后低开高走 ,尾盘下跌 4.45%</b>,这一天腾讯单只股票成交额破千亿 ,破了港股历史记录。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/503590e8e0c0647786e2db35b2314b7b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>腾讯的大股东披露这个消息,<b>很大概率已经和机构投资者签订好了大宗转让协议 </b> ,这种体量的交易 不会是通过二级市场完成 。</p><p>上次MIH减持后 ,腾讯股价从 3月份的416跌到11月份的250, 跌幅幅度达到 40%,有些投资者非常担心 会不会历史重演。</p><p>我简单复下盘 :2017年腾讯营收增速非常快,以“王者荣耀”为主的游戏板块,驱动业绩大涨,市场也给出了高估值,当时的市盈率超过60倍。投资者都说大象也能起舞,说明当时投资者对腾讯有很多正面预期。</p><p>接下来发生四件事 :</p><ol><li><p>游戏体量大了以后 增长放缓 ,前期预期太高 杀估值。</p></li><li><p>监管层又推出了限制游戏版号的政策,这个政策加重了投资者对腾讯的负面预期。</p></li><li><p>2018年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>大火,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">全民</a>刷抖音,不少投资者认为抖音还伤害到了腾讯社交的基本盘。</p></li><li><p>国内货币环境 去杠杆,A股 中证500跌到1倍PB。</p></li></ol><p>从估值看这次减持的估值没有上次高 ,上次MIH减持的时候估值是45PE ,13倍PS , 现在腾讯的估值是 32PE,11倍PS. 18年股价跌这么多 <b>最主要的是上次腾讯跌这么多是连续遇到上述几个利空 ,和大股东减持没有直接的关系 。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82c47aaeb1d04bb113c80f2e867ecb5f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2015年的A股股灾是比较容易逃顶的,2018年的阴跌是非常难避开的,如果一个投资者避开了2018年 40%的股价回调 ,大概率也会错过后面 2019,2020年 200%的上涨 ,投资都是盈亏同源的 。</p><p>腾讯的估值放在全市场总体现在不算贵的,和18年的市场不算一样, 那时候<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">贵州茅台</a>是30倍PE , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603288\">海天味业</a> 40倍PE , 现在贵州茅台55PE , 海天味业86倍PE , 腾讯还是32倍PE ,腾讯算比较便宜的优质成长股了,<b>这次股价如果大幅度回调就是 黄金的上车机会 。</b></p><p>再说说今天的市场:</p><ol><li><p>高瓴资本大幅度减持国内次高端白酒公司 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600779\">水井坊</a>的股份 ,此前高瓴资本 的天津礼仁卓越长青基金持有水井坊452万股 ,现在已经退出10大股东 , 易方达张坤也继续减持了水井坊。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16a4a7e5faee826718bf8bd28987ba12\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p></li><li><p>国内防水龙头 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002271\">东方雨虹</a>发布公告,预计第一季度净利润为2.62亿-3.01亿元,同比增长100%-130% ,主要原因是1季度是防水行业的淡季,加上去年基数比较低 。</p></li><li><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603737\">三棵树</a>发布定增预案,准备募资37亿元人民币。三棵树这家公司国内公募很少投资,主要是外资持股比较重, 这次定增预估也会有不少海外机构参加,三棵树的估值一直都很高 ,主要原因是涂料这个行业在他们国家出过大牛股 。</p></li><li><p>今天<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601601\">中国太保</a>A股大跌 4.82%, 主要原因是 港股有资金在砸 H股 ,砸盘具体原因 不清楚 。但不用太悲观 ,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02601\">中国太保</a> 估值接近历史底部 ,2020年 披露的内含价值 增长率 20%以上,投资收益率也不错 。长期看 中国太保的股价 受益于内含价值的不断增长 ,底部会不断太高的。</p></li></ol><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76a6f3d64cd5ab85bf7ea5d0e0e32909\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1581558799890","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>复盘2018年那次大股东抛售:腾讯会再次“腰斩”吗</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n复盘2018年那次大股东抛售:腾讯会再次“腰斩”吗\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-07 22:47 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1NTE2MTU2NQ==&mid=2247491052&idx=1&sn=7b0beda31b7b7bb07aa160d3fdcc0039&chksm=fbd9df5eccae56481ed5872f2ab5529bdf970399a2ef1688b15f571e033b5526177afa999476&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0407T46Vuk3s0kemSLQlb4fG&sharer_sharetime=1617802279986&sharer_shareid=fbf3e6a28882bb91c07a361d6d431142&ADUIN=694720019&ADSESSION=1617773062&ADTAG=CLIENT.QQ.5615_.0&ADPUBNO=27006#rd><strong>海榕财富风险投研</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周三盘后出了一个大消息,腾讯的第一大股东MIH披露:计划出售1.9亿股的腾讯股份给全球机构投资者,这笔交易价值1141亿港元, 占总股本的2%,每股作价575至595港元,当于4月7日收市价629.5港元折让5.5%至8.7%。腾讯的大股东MIH是一家 南非的传媒公司,在2001年腾讯生死存亡之际 雪中送炭,MIH出资3200万美元 从 李泽楷 收购了20%腾讯股份,从IDG手中收购了12.8%的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1NTE2MTU2NQ==&mid=2247491052&idx=1&sn=7b0beda31b7b7bb07aa160d3fdcc0039&chksm=fbd9df5eccae56481ed5872f2ab5529bdf970399a2ef1688b15f571e033b5526177afa999476&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0407T46Vuk3s0kemSLQlb4fG&sharer_sharetime=1617802279986&sharer_shareid=fbf3e6a28882bb91c07a361d6d431142&ADUIN=694720019&ADSESSION=1617773062&ADTAG=CLIENT.QQ.5615_.0&ADPUBNO=27006#rd\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d55299682db47c1e5fa53cf9bbcc7609","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1NTE2MTU2NQ==&mid=2247491052&idx=1&sn=7b0beda31b7b7bb07aa160d3fdcc0039&chksm=fbd9df5eccae56481ed5872f2ab5529bdf970399a2ef1688b15f571e033b5526177afa999476&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0407T46Vuk3s0kemSLQlb4fG&sharer_sharetime=1617802279986&sharer_shareid=fbf3e6a28882bb91c07a361d6d431142&ADUIN=694720019&ADSESSION=1617773062&ADTAG=CLIENT.QQ.5615_.0&ADPUBNO=27006#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176614844","content_text":"周三盘后出了一个大消息,腾讯的第一大股东MIH披露:计划出售1.9亿股的腾讯股份给全球机构投资者,这笔交易价值1141亿港元, 占总股本的2%,每股作价575至595港元,当于4月7日收市价629.5港元折让5.5%至8.7%。腾讯的大股东MIH是一家 南非的传媒公司,在2001年腾讯生死存亡之际 雪中送炭,MIH出资3200万美元 从 李泽楷 收购了20%腾讯股份,从IDG手中收购了12.8%的股份,又从腾讯创始团队中收购了13.5%的股份,最后以接近50%的持股成为腾讯第一大股东。在腾讯 2004 年港股市场IPO的时候,MIH的股份稀释为 35.7%,上市后MIH连续持有腾讯14年 没有减持一股,非常坚定的看好腾讯的发展, 用张坤的话大家很容易低估重仓持有一个公司的难度。在2018年3月23日, MIH 第一次宣布减持腾讯2%的股份, 同时承诺3年内不再减持腾讯股份 。 回顾一下2018年3月23日的交易情况, 腾讯当天股价低开 7.85%, 然后低开高走 ,尾盘下跌 4.45%,这一天腾讯单只股票成交额破千亿 ,破了港股历史记录。腾讯的大股东披露这个消息,很大概率已经和机构投资者签订好了大宗转让协议 ,这种体量的交易 不会是通过二级市场完成 。上次MIH减持后 ,腾讯股价从 3月份的416跌到11月份的250, 跌幅幅度达到 40%,有些投资者非常担心 会不会历史重演。我简单复下盘 :2017年腾讯营收增速非常快,以“王者荣耀”为主的游戏板块,驱动业绩大涨,市场也给出了高估值,当时的市盈率超过60倍。投资者都说大象也能起舞,说明当时投资者对腾讯有很多正面预期。接下来发生四件事 :游戏体量大了以后 增长放缓 ,前期预期太高 杀估值。监管层又推出了限制游戏版号的政策,这个政策加重了投资者对腾讯的负面预期。2018年抖音大火,全民刷抖音,不少投资者认为抖音还伤害到了腾讯社交的基本盘。国内货币环境 去杠杆,A股 中证500跌到1倍PB。从估值看这次减持的估值没有上次高 ,上次MIH减持的时候估值是45PE ,13倍PS , 现在腾讯的估值是 32PE,11倍PS. 18年股价跌这么多 最主要的是上次腾讯跌这么多是连续遇到上述几个利空 ,和大股东减持没有直接的关系 。2015年的A股股灾是比较容易逃顶的,2018年的阴跌是非常难避开的,如果一个投资者避开了2018年 40%的股价回调 ,大概率也会错过后面 2019,2020年 200%的上涨 ,投资都是盈亏同源的 。腾讯的估值放在全市场总体现在不算贵的,和18年的市场不算一样, 那时候贵州茅台是30倍PE , 海天味业 40倍PE , 现在贵州茅台55PE , 海天味业86倍PE , 腾讯还是32倍PE ,腾讯算比较便宜的优质成长股了,这次股价如果大幅度回调就是 黄金的上车机会 。再说说今天的市场:高瓴资本大幅度减持国内次高端白酒公司 水井坊的股份 ,此前高瓴资本 的天津礼仁卓越长青基金持有水井坊452万股 ,现在已经退出10大股东 , 易方达张坤也继续减持了水井坊。国内防水龙头 东方雨虹发布公告,预计第一季度净利润为2.62亿-3.01亿元,同比增长100%-130% ,主要原因是1季度是防水行业的淡季,加上去年基数比较低 。三棵树发布定增预案,准备募资37亿元人民币。三棵树这家公司国内公募很少投资,主要是外资持股比较重, 这次定增预估也会有不少海外机构参加,三棵树的估值一直都很高 ,主要原因是涂料这个行业在他们国家出过大牛股 。今天中国太保A股大跌 4.82%, 主要原因是 港股有资金在砸 H股 ,砸盘具体原因 不清楚 。但不用太悲观 ,中国太保 估值接近历史底部 ,2020年 披露的内含价值 增长率 20%以上,投资收益率也不错 。长期看 中国太保的股价 受益于内含价值的不断增长 ,底部会不断太高的。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":963,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}