UncleJason的个人主页 - 老虎社区

UncleJason

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2022-02-07

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$阿里巴巴集团新注册了10亿份美国存托股票（ADS），可以简单理解为增加10亿份流通股，价值1200亿美元左右。可能性最大的是软银打算卖出部分阿里股票，其次则是阿里打算将部分股票从美股转移到港股，使港股成为主要上市地，这样港股通就可以买了。但无论如何，市场上突然多那么多流通股肯定会有压力，所以阿里已经跌了不少，还拖累了其他概帮众。

2022-02-04

配股还是马总要减持？

阿里巴巴：申请额外注册10亿股美国存托股份

2022-01-05

腾讯不是被南非公司控制吗

怎么看腾讯减持Sea？

2021-09-03

$和黄医药(HCM)$上交所：关于沪港通下港股通股票名单调整及下一次定期调整时间的通知

2020-11-17

可以潜伏了

传京东健康将于下周招股募资额约40亿美元拟抢跑蓝月亮

2020-11-16

$京东(JD)$等jd健康上市吧

2020-11-09

$新东方(EDU)$新东方线下教育，育苗利好股

2020-10-30

$陆金所(LU)$有了，200中5

2020-02-14

$慧择控股(HUIZ)$绿鞋能撑多久？

2020-02-12

$慧择控股(HUIZ)$5600中390

2020-02-12

$慧择控股(HUIZ)$这几天中概股逗涨疯了吧，看你表现了

2019-09-06

$Altaba(AABA)$请问51.5美元要扣10%吗？这个是capital gain

2019-08-27

为啥大跌，今天A涨的呀

2019-08-07

BATJ 居然就你是跌的

@UncleJason:$阿里巴巴(BABA)$$拼多多(PDD)$$京东(JD)$三个股票就你最弱，其他两个都快红了，难道财报很差？

2019-08-07

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$$拼多多(PDD)$$京东(JD)$三个股票就你最弱，其他两个都快红了，难道财报很差？

2019-07-31

$京东(JD)$有人买了10000手 33的call，估计财报很好

2019-07-31

$京东(JD)$BATJ 就你跌的怎么回事

2019-07-29

$尚乘国际(HKIB)$大家知道青岛银行得什么事情吗

2019-07-17

$斗鱼(DOYU)$虎牙52亿市值，斗鱼现在只有37亿，至少30%上涨空间

2019-06-06

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 美国对墨西哥加税了，你跌啥？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d752152b73947ff2f4b1c08ab9eecc39","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199563605","content_text":"据美港电讯消息，阿里巴巴宣布：申请额外注册10亿股美国存托股份。每股存托股份代表8股普通股，每股面值为0.000003125美元。(向美国证券交易委员会提交F-6表格)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1052,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":695128092,"gmtCreate":1641372691147,"gmtModify":1641372691147,"author":{"id":"3443439244787362","authorId":"3443439244787362","name":"UncleJason","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3443439244787362","authorIdStr":"3443439244787362"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"腾讯不是被南非公司控制吗","listText":"腾讯不是被南非公司控制吗","text":"腾讯不是被南非公司控制吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/695128092","repostId":"1115748158","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1115748158","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"国金证券传媒与互联网研究团队的公众号。我们是活跃在互联网、传媒娱乐、信息技术市场上的掘金怪盗团，专门寻找宝物，也就是优秀的上市公司或非上市公司。欢迎投资者、业内人士和上市公司与我们联系。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"互联网怪盗团","id":"1093891755","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a468bceacf4427aa893bbe927a9eb89"},"pubTimestamp":1641366820,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115748158?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-05 15:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"怎么看腾讯减持Sea？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115748158","media":"互联网怪盗团","summary":"——“怎么看腾讯减持Sea?”——“看不懂。”这是昨晚腾讯宣布减持Sea之后，我跟无数位来自互联网行业或投资圈的朋友的对话记录。直到现在，仍然无人能说出这个举动背后的逻辑；甚至连猜测的空间都没有。事实","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>——“怎么看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>减持Sea?”</b></p><p><b>——“看不懂。”</b></p><p>这是昨晚腾讯宣布减持Sea之后，我跟无数位来自互联网行业或投资圈的朋友的对话记录。直到现在，仍然无人能说出这个举动背后的逻辑；甚至连猜测的空间都没有。事实上，元旦休假期间，我曾经跟一家互联网大厂的朋友讨论过“腾讯的下一个减持目标会是谁”——我们谈到了美团、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>，甚至B站、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">知乎</a>，却完全没有想到Sea。</p><p>“完全看不懂。如果减持美团、拼多多、滴滴这样的中国资产，我还可以理解；为什么要减持海外资产呢？”这是我的一位朋友的困惑，也是我的困惑。因为看不懂，所以市场更加惊慌。“腾讯可能减持”，居然成为了仅次于反垄断的促使中概股下跌的重要因素。</p><p>不过，在仔细阅读减持公告，并且与最近一段时间公布的监管文件对照之后，我似乎明白了什么。下面是我的个人观点，仅供参考：</p><ul><li><p>腾讯减持Sea，主要是为了消除Sea面临的国外监管（其实就是美国监管）风险。而且，为了符合国外监管要求，腾讯等中国互联网公司可能不得不进一步降低海外投资，至少要降低对海外资产的控制权。</p></li><li><p>腾讯主动降低对Sea的话语权，有可能也符合国内监管的思路，尽管对这一点我们还不十分清楚。可能要过几个月，我们才能看清国内主管部门对互联网公司海外投资的态度。</p></li><li><p>无论如何，这将意味着中国互联网出海“黄金时代”的结束。规模较小的公司，或者内容型、产品型公司还可以出海，但平台型公司需要自我克制。中国互联网公司不能再指望用出海去解决下一阶段的增长问题。</p></li></ul><p>再强调一遍：<b>腾讯减持Sea很可能意味着中国互联网公司（尤其是平台型公司）出海热潮告一段落。</b>这主要是出于国外监管（其实就是美国监管）日益苛刻，其次也受到了国内监管的一些影响。接下来展开论述。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab78b454776a44a97448605b033ad84f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>腾讯减持Sea的具体方案比较复杂，包括下列三个彼此相关的行动：</p><ol><li><p>Sea的普通股分为A、B两大类，后者的投票权是前者的三倍。在2022年2月14日举行的股东大会上，Sea管理层将提议把B类普通股的投票权提升到A类的15倍，从而让B类股东对公司的控制权进一步提升。</p></li><li><p>与此同时，腾讯将把其持有的Sea B类普通股全部转为A类；这样，Sea公司创始人将成为唯一的B类股东。腾讯在Sea的投票权将下降到10%以下。腾讯还将同时废止与公司创始人的表决权委托协议。</p></li><li><p>完成上述举措之后，腾讯将减持约1449万股Sea A类普通股，将持股比例从21.3%下降到18.7%。腾讯表示拟长期持有“于Sea的绝大部分股权”，并在未来6个月内不再减持。</p></li></ol><p>也就是说，腾讯主动放弃了对Sea的控制能力。上述交易完成后，公司创始人在表决权方面将“一股独大”。很多投资人曾经盼望腾讯进一步增持Sea甚至将其并购，现在看来是不可能了。显然，这是腾讯对全世界监管部门的一个表态：<b>“我无意以投资的方式，控制或并购优质的海外资产。”</b></p><p>我的个人看法是，如果Sea这样的大型海外互联网公司有“被中国公司控制”的嫌疑，可能非常不利于它在海外展开业务，也不利于它的资本市场表现。Sea的总部在新加坡，而新加坡与美国的关系非常好。准确地说，绝大部分东南亚国家与美国的关系都非常好。Sea是一家美国上市公司，大部分流通股由美国或欧洲的机构投资者持有；T. Rowe Price和Capital这两家著名北美共同基金的持股比例都超过了5%。</p><p>无须讳言，美国监管者一定不乐意看到一家中国公司持有Sea这样优质、这样有影响力的海外资产。它有无数种反制措施，可能大大拖慢Sea的发展速度，导致Sea难以扩张到更多的国家、更多的领域，甚至限制美国自然人或法人对Sea的投资。上述行动还没有发生，但没有人能保证不让它发生。既然如此，腾讯主动放弃对Sea的控制权，并且彻底用户公司创始人（一个新加坡自然人）的控制权，就是最好的解决方案。</p><p>如果上述猜测是正确的，那么中国互联网公司将不得不或早或晚地放弃对其他优质海外资产的控制权。它们不一定需要“清仓式减持”，只需要在法律意义上保证自己不会干预公司管理即可。<b>大规模的海外并购当然是不太可能了——美国监管者既不会允许这种事情在自己的土地上发生，也不会允许这种事情在自己能影响的土地上发生。</b>遗憾的是，美国能够影响全世界绝大多数的国家和地区。</p><p>不受美国影响的地区当然是存在的，但是，头脑正常的中国互联网公司应该没有兴趣去那里投资并购。所以它们必须默默忍受，直到局势出现根本性的好转为止。毕竟，人类的全部智慧就是“忍耐”和“希望”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d07a4003a622b40c9bdc846d54ee80f0\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>除此之外，我还想探讨一个鲜为人知的话题：<b>在国内监管日趋严格的情况下，国内互联网公司的出海（无论是创业、并购还是内部孵化），都会遇到显著的瓶颈。</b>这个瓶颈可能是无解的。</p><p>2021年12月24日，中国证监会公布了《境内企业境外发行证券和上市备案管理办法（征求意见稿）》。其中有两个规定非常严格：</p><ul><li><p>第三条规定：<b>“高级管理人员多数为中国公民或经常居住地为境内，业务经营活动的主要场所位于境内”</b>的企业，将被认定为境内企业。</p></li><li><p>第十三条、十五条规定：无论在上市前还是上市后，<b>“股权结构的重大变更”“控制权变更”“主要业务经营活动发生重大变化”，</b>应该向中国证监会备案（上市前）或提交报告（上市后）。</p></li><li><p>第二十三条规定：本办法所规定的“控制权”，包括<b>“能够对董事会、股东会或者股东大会等类似决策机构的决策产生重大影响”以及“通过合同、信托、协议等安排对经营活动、财务、 人事、技术等施加重大影响”</b>的行为。这个规定非常宽泛。</p></li></ul><p>以Sea为例，在腾讯减持之前，在理论上拥有最大份额的投票权，但是与公司创始人签署了委托表决协议。在中国证监会看来，这种情况算不算“控制权”？腾讯算不算“对Sea的经营活动具备重大影响”？一切都是未知数，因为上述《办法》刚刚公布，我们尚不知道执法尺度如何。</p><p>但是，有一件事情是肯定的：在中国境内成立、由中国人管理、主要从事出海业务的互联网公司，将被纳入《境内企业境外发行证券和上市备案管理办法》的管辖范围。包括做电商独立站的、做海外社交的、做海外流媒体平台的、做游戏出海的公司，基本都符合上述条件。除非它们把总部搬到海外并且引进足够多的外籍管理层，否则它们上市就需要履行证监会的备案流程。此时此刻，我们对这种备案流程会持续多久、要求多严、会不会被否决，毫无概念。</p><p>我相信，投资人尤其是美元投资人，肯定会注意到上述的监管风险；他们投资中国互联网出海企业的积极性肯定会下降，问题仅仅在于下降的程度多大而已。</p><p>2021年，曾经有很多人乐观地认为，国内对互联网行业的监管趋严，反而会鼓励互联网公司去海外开疆扩土，年轻的创业者也会热衷于把中国的经验输出到“互联网发展中国家”。现在看来，这种观点实在过度乐观了。首先，美国监管者不会允许（我们也不应该期望它们允许）；其次，国内监管者似乎也没有特别鼓励互联网出海的意思。中国互联网出海的黄金时代，很可能刚刚开始就已经结束了。</p><p>腾讯减持Sea可能是一个小问题，但背后折射的可能是很大的问题。解决问题的方法是存在的，但我们在短期内不可能选择。互联网行业的艰难岁月没有结束，可能还会持续很长一段时间。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n怎么看腾讯减持Sea？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1093891755\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a468bceacf4427aa893bbe927a9eb89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">互联网怪盗团 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-05 15:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><b>——“怎么看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>减持Sea?”</b></p><p><b>——“看不懂。”</b></p><p>这是昨晚腾讯宣布减持Sea之后，我跟无数位来自互联网行业或投资圈的朋友的对话记录。直到现在，仍然无人能说出这个举动背后的逻辑；甚至连猜测的空间都没有。事实上，元旦休假期间，我曾经跟一家互联网大厂的朋友讨论过“腾讯的下一个减持目标会是谁”——我们谈到了美团、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>，甚至B站、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">知乎</a>，却完全没有想到Sea。</p><p>“完全看不懂。如果减持美团、拼多多、滴滴这样的中国资产，我还可以理解；为什么要减持海外资产呢？”这是我的一位朋友的困惑，也是我的困惑。因为看不懂，所以市场更加惊慌。“腾讯可能减持”，居然成为了仅次于反垄断的促使中概股下跌的重要因素。</p><p>不过，在仔细阅读减持公告，并且与最近一段时间公布的监管文件对照之后，我似乎明白了什么。下面是我的个人观点，仅供参考：</p><ul><li><p>腾讯减持Sea，主要是为了消除Sea面临的国外监管（其实就是美国监管）风险。而且，为了符合国外监管要求，腾讯等中国互联网公司可能不得不进一步降低海外投资，至少要降低对海外资产的控制权。</p></li><li><p>腾讯主动降低对Sea的话语权，有可能也符合国内监管的思路，尽管对这一点我们还不十分清楚。可能要过几个月，我们才能看清国内主管部门对互联网公司海外投资的态度。</p></li><li><p>无论如何，这将意味着中国互联网出海“黄金时代”的结束。规模较小的公司，或者内容型、产品型公司还可以出海，但平台型公司需要自我克制。中国互联网公司不能再指望用出海去解决下一阶段的增长问题。</p></li></ul><p>再强调一遍：<b>腾讯减持Sea很可能意味着中国互联网公司（尤其是平台型公司）出海热潮告一段落。</b>这主要是出于国外监管（其实就是美国监管）日益苛刻，其次也受到了国内监管的一些影响。接下来展开论述。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab78b454776a44a97448605b033ad84f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>腾讯减持Sea的具体方案比较复杂，包括下列三个彼此相关的行动：</p><ol><li><p>Sea的普通股分为A、B两大类，后者的投票权是前者的三倍。在2022年2月14日举行的股东大会上，Sea管理层将提议把B类普通股的投票权提升到A类的15倍，从而让B类股东对公司的控制权进一步提升。</p></li><li><p>与此同时，腾讯将把其持有的Sea B类普通股全部转为A类；这样，Sea公司创始人将成为唯一的B类股东。腾讯在Sea的投票权将下降到10%以下。腾讯还将同时废止与公司创始人的表决权委托协议。</p></li><li><p>完成上述举措之后，腾讯将减持约1449万股Sea A类普通股，将持股比例从21.3%下降到18.7%。腾讯表示拟长期持有“于Sea的绝大部分股权”，并在未来6个月内不再减持。</p></li></ol><p>也就是说，腾讯主动放弃了对Sea的控制能力。上述交易完成后，公司创始人在表决权方面将“一股独大”。很多投资人曾经盼望腾讯进一步增持Sea甚至将其并购，现在看来是不可能了。显然，这是腾讯对全世界监管部门的一个表态：<b>“我无意以投资的方式，控制或并购优质的海外资产。”</b></p><p>我的个人看法是，如果Sea这样的大型海外互联网公司有“被中国公司控制”的嫌疑，可能非常不利于它在海外展开业务，也不利于它的资本市场表现。Sea的总部在新加坡，而新加坡与美国的关系非常好。准确地说，绝大部分东南亚国家与美国的关系都非常好。Sea是一家美国上市公司，大部分流通股由美国或欧洲的机构投资者持有；T. Rowe Price和Capital这两家著名北美共同基金的持股比例都超过了5%。</p><p>无须讳言，美国监管者一定不乐意看到一家中国公司持有Sea这样优质、这样有影响力的海外资产。它有无数种反制措施，可能大大拖慢Sea的发展速度，导致Sea难以扩张到更多的国家、更多的领域，甚至限制美国自然人或法人对Sea的投资。上述行动还没有发生，但没有人能保证不让它发生。既然如此，腾讯主动放弃对Sea的控制权，并且彻底用户公司创始人（一个新加坡自然人）的控制权，就是最好的解决方案。</p><p>如果上述猜测是正确的，那么中国互联网公司将不得不或早或晚地放弃对其他优质海外资产的控制权。它们不一定需要“清仓式减持”，只需要在法律意义上保证自己不会干预公司管理即可。<b>大规模的海外并购当然是不太可能了——美国监管者既不会允许这种事情在自己的土地上发生，也不会允许这种事情在自己能影响的土地上发生。</b>遗憾的是，美国能够影响全世界绝大多数的国家和地区。</p><p>不受美国影响的地区当然是存在的，但是，头脑正常的中国互联网公司应该没有兴趣去那里投资并购。所以它们必须默默忍受，直到局势出现根本性的好转为止。毕竟，人类的全部智慧就是“忍耐”和“希望”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d07a4003a622b40c9bdc846d54ee80f0\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>除此之外，我还想探讨一个鲜为人知的话题：<b>在国内监管日趋严格的情况下，国内互联网公司的出海（无论是创业、并购还是内部孵化），都会遇到显著的瓶颈。</b>这个瓶颈可能是无解的。</p><p>2021年12月24日，中国证监会公布了《境内企业境外发行证券和上市备案管理办法（征求意见稿）》。其中有两个规定非常严格：</p><ul><li><p>第三条规定：<b>“高级管理人员多数为中国公民或经常居住地为境内，业务经营活动的主要场所位于境内”</b>的企业，将被认定为境内企业。</p></li><li><p>第十三条、十五条规定：无论在上市前还是上市后，<b>“股权结构的重大变更”“控制权变更”“主要业务经营活动发生重大变化”，</b>应该向中国证监会备案（上市前）或提交报告（上市后）。</p></li><li><p>第二十三条规定：本办法所规定的“控制权”，包括<b>“能够对董事会、股东会或者股东大会等类似决策机构的决策产生重大影响”以及“通过合同、信托、协议等安排对经营活动、财务、 人事、技术等施加重大影响”</b>的行为。这个规定非常宽泛。</p></li></ul><p>以Sea为例，在腾讯减持之前，在理论上拥有最大份额的投票权，但是与公司创始人签署了委托表决协议。在中国证监会看来，这种情况算不算“控制权”？腾讯算不算“对Sea的经营活动具备重大影响”？一切都是未知数，因为上述《办法》刚刚公布，我们尚不知道执法尺度如何。</p><p>但是，有一件事情是肯定的：在中国境内成立、由中国人管理、主要从事出海业务的互联网公司，将被纳入《境内企业境外发行证券和上市备案管理办法》的管辖范围。包括做电商独立站的、做海外社交的、做海外流媒体平台的、做游戏出海的公司，基本都符合上述条件。除非它们把总部搬到海外并且引进足够多的外籍管理层，否则它们上市就需要履行证监会的备案流程。此时此刻，我们对这种备案流程会持续多久、要求多严、会不会被否决，毫无概念。</p><p>我相信，投资人尤其是美元投资人，肯定会注意到上述的监管风险；他们投资中国互联网出海企业的积极性肯定会下降，问题仅仅在于下降的程度多大而已。</p><p>2021年，曾经有很多人乐观地认为，国内对互联网行业的监管趋严，反而会鼓励互联网公司去海外开疆扩土，年轻的创业者也会热衷于把中国的经验输出到“互联网发展中国家”。现在看来，这种观点实在过度乐观了。首先，美国监管者不会允许（我们也不应该期望它们允许）；其次，国内监管者似乎也没有特别鼓励互联网出海的意思。中国互联网出海的黄金时代，很可能刚刚开始就已经结束了。</p><p>腾讯减持Sea可能是一个小问题，但背后折射的可能是很大的问题。解决问题的方法是存在的，但我们在短期内不可能选择。互联网行业的艰难岁月没有结束，可能还会持续很长一段时间。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7799eeb7043b8caaf3d109c3b13109e","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd","BK1517":"云办公","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK1586":"云计算","BK1589":"北水核心资产","BK1531":"手游股","BK1095":"互动媒体与服务","BK1526":"科网股","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","00700":"腾讯控股","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1502":"双十一","BK1591":"就地过年概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115748158","content_text":"——“怎么看腾讯减持Sea?”——“看不懂。”这是昨晚腾讯宣布减持Sea之后，我跟无数位来自互联网行业或投资圈的朋友的对话记录。直到现在，仍然无人能说出这个举动背后的逻辑；甚至连猜测的空间都没有。事实上，元旦休假期间，我曾经跟一家互联网大厂的朋友讨论过“腾讯的下一个减持目标会是谁”——我们谈到了美团、拼多多、滴滴，甚至B站、知乎，却完全没有想到Sea。“完全看不懂。如果减持美团、拼多多、滴滴这样的中国资产，我还可以理解；为什么要减持海外资产呢？”这是我的一位朋友的困惑，也是我的困惑。因为看不懂，所以市场更加惊慌。“腾讯可能减持”，居然成为了仅次于反垄断的促使中概股下跌的重要因素。不过，在仔细阅读减持公告，并且与最近一段时间公布的监管文件对照之后，我似乎明白了什么。下面是我的个人观点，仅供参考：腾讯减持Sea，主要是为了消除Sea面临的国外监管（其实就是美国监管）风险。而且，为了符合国外监管要求，腾讯等中国互联网公司可能不得不进一步降低海外投资，至少要降低对海外资产的控制权。腾讯主动降低对Sea的话语权，有可能也符合国内监管的思路，尽管对这一点我们还不十分清楚。可能要过几个月，我们才能看清国内主管部门对互联网公司海外投资的态度。无论如何，这将意味着中国互联网出海“黄金时代”的结束。规模较小的公司，或者内容型、产品型公司还可以出海，但平台型公司需要自我克制。中国互联网公司不能再指望用出海去解决下一阶段的增长问题。再强调一遍：腾讯减持Sea很可能意味着中国互联网公司（尤其是平台型公司）出海热潮告一段落。这主要是出于国外监管（其实就是美国监管）日益苛刻，其次也受到了国内监管的一些影响。接下来展开论述。腾讯减持Sea的具体方案比较复杂，包括下列三个彼此相关的行动：Sea的普通股分为A、B两大类，后者的投票权是前者的三倍。在2022年2月14日举行的股东大会上，Sea管理层将提议把B类普通股的投票权提升到A类的15倍，从而让B类股东对公司的控制权进一步提升。与此同时，腾讯将把其持有的Sea B类普通股全部转为A类；这样，Sea公司创始人将成为唯一的B类股东。腾讯在Sea的投票权将下降到10%以下。腾讯还将同时废止与公司创始人的表决权委托协议。完成上述举措之后，腾讯将减持约1449万股Sea A类普通股，将持股比例从21.3%下降到18.7%。腾讯表示拟长期持有“于Sea的绝大部分股权”，并在未来6个月内不再减持。也就是说，腾讯主动放弃了对Sea的控制能力。上述交易完成后，公司创始人在表决权方面将“一股独大”。很多投资人曾经盼望腾讯进一步增持Sea甚至将其并购，现在看来是不可能了。显然，这是腾讯对全世界监管部门的一个表态：“我无意以投资的方式，控制或并购优质的海外资产。”我的个人看法是，如果Sea这样的大型海外互联网公司有“被中国公司控制”的嫌疑，可能非常不利于它在海外展开业务，也不利于它的资本市场表现。Sea的总部在新加坡，而新加坡与美国的关系非常好。准确地说，绝大部分东南亚国家与美国的关系都非常好。Sea是一家美国上市公司，大部分流通股由美国或欧洲的机构投资者持有；T. Rowe Price和Capital这两家著名北美共同基金的持股比例都超过了5%。无须讳言，美国监管者一定不乐意看到一家中国公司持有Sea这样优质、这样有影响力的海外资产。它有无数种反制措施，可能大大拖慢Sea的发展速度，导致Sea难以扩张到更多的国家、更多的领域，甚至限制美国自然人或法人对Sea的投资。上述行动还没有发生，但没有人能保证不让它发生。既然如此，腾讯主动放弃对Sea的控制权，并且彻底用户公司创始人（一个新加坡自然人）的控制权，就是最好的解决方案。如果上述猜测是正确的，那么中国互联网公司将不得不或早或晚地放弃对其他优质海外资产的控制权。它们不一定需要“清仓式减持”，只需要在法律意义上保证自己不会干预公司管理即可。大规模的海外并购当然是不太可能了——美国监管者既不会允许这种事情在自己的土地上发生，也不会允许这种事情在自己能影响的土地上发生。遗憾的是，美国能够影响全世界绝大多数的国家和地区。不受美国影响的地区当然是存在的，但是，头脑正常的中国互联网公司应该没有兴趣去那里投资并购。所以它们必须默默忍受，直到局势出现根本性的好转为止。毕竟，人类的全部智慧就是“忍耐”和“希望”。除此之外，我还想探讨一个鲜为人知的话题：在国内监管日趋严格的情况下，国内互联网公司的出海（无论是创业、并购还是内部孵化），都会遇到显著的瓶颈。这个瓶颈可能是无解的。2021年12月24日，中国证监会公布了《境内企业境外发行证券和上市备案管理办法（征求意见稿）》。其中有两个规定非常严格：第三条规定：“高级管理人员多数为中国公民或经常居住地为境内，业务经营活动的主要场所位于境内”的企业，将被认定为境内企业。第十三条、十五条规定：无论在上市前还是上市后，“股权结构的重大变更”“控制权变更”“主要业务经营活动发生重大变化”，应该向中国证监会备案（上市前）或提交报告（上市后）。第二十三条规定：本办法所规定的“控制权”，包括“能够对董事会、股东会或者股东大会等类似决策机构的决策产生重大影响”以及“通过合同、信托、协议等安排对经营活动、财务、 人事、技术等施加重大影响”的行为。这个规定非常宽泛。以Sea为例，在腾讯减持之前，在理论上拥有最大份额的投票权，但是与公司创始人签署了委托表决协议。在中国证监会看来，这种情况算不算“控制权”？腾讯算不算“对Sea的经营活动具备重大影响”？一切都是未知数，因为上述《办法》刚刚公布，我们尚不知道执法尺度如何。但是，有一件事情是肯定的：在中国境内成立、由中国人管理、主要从事出海业务的互联网公司，将被纳入《境内企业境外发行证券和上市备案管理办法》的管辖范围。包括做电商独立站的、做海外社交的、做海外流媒体平台的、做游戏出海的公司，基本都符合上述条件。除非它们把总部搬到海外并且引进足够多的外籍管理层，否则它们上市就需要履行证监会的备案流程。此时此刻，我们对这种备案流程会持续多久、要求多严、会不会被否决，毫无概念。我相信，投资人尤其是美元投资人，肯定会注意到上述的监管风险；他们投资中国互联网出海企业的积极性肯定会下降，问题仅仅在于下降的程度多大而已。2021年，曾经有很多人乐观地认为，国内对互联网行业的监管趋严，反而会鼓励互联网公司去海外开疆扩土，年轻的创业者也会热衷于把中国的经验输出到“互联网发展中国家”。现在看来，这种观点实在过度乐观了。首先，美国监管者不会允许（我们也不应该期望它们允许）；其次，国内监管者似乎也没有特别鼓励互联网出海的意思。中国互联网出海的黄金时代，很可能刚刚开始就已经结束了。腾讯减持Sea可能是一个小问题，但背后折射的可能是很大的问题。解决问题的方法是存在的，但我们在短期内不可能选择。互联网行业的艰难岁月没有结束，可能还会持续很长一段时间。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":878,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":815800436,"gmtCreate":1630661669625,"gmtModify":1630661669625,"author":{"id":"3443439244787362","authorId":"3443439244787362","name":"UncleJason","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3443439244787362","authorIdStr":"3443439244787362"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCM\">$和黄医药(HCM)$</a>上交所：关于沪港通下港股通股票名单调整及下一次定期调整时间的通知","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCM\">$和黄医药(HCM)$</a>上交所：关于沪港通下港股通股票名单调整及下一次定期调整时间的通知","text":"$和黄医药(HCM)$上交所：关于沪港通下港股通股票名单调整及下一次定期调整时间的通知","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815800436","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":307403875,"gmtCreate":1605611432197,"gmtModify":1703838563670,"author":{"id":"3443439244787362","authorId":"3443439244787362","name":"UncleJason","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3443439244787362","authorIdStr":"3443439244787362"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"可以潜伏了","listText":"可以潜伏了","text":"可以潜伏了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/307403875","repostId":"2084496439","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2084496439","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1605610740,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2084496439?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-17 18:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"传京东健康将于下周招股募资额约40亿美元 拟抢跑蓝月亮","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2084496439","media":"新浪财经综合","summary":"据媒体报道，京东健康将于下周周中启动招股并计划于12月第二周周初敲钟，抢跑当前已经过了聆讯的蓝月亮以及恒大物业等公司IPO。京东健康已于11月16日开始分析师路演，此次计划募资40亿美元，准确的募资金额将在接下来的路演期间确定。京东健康上市团队暂定的时间表为，11月25日开始招股，12月7日或8日敲钟。但是，最后的时间表还需依路演进展随时调整。","content":"<html><body><article><p>据媒体报道，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>健康将于下周周中启动招股并计划于12月第二周周初敲钟，抢跑当前已经过了聆讯的蓝月亮以及恒大物业等公司IPO。京东健康已于11月16日开始分析师路演，此次计划募资40亿美元，准确的募资金额将在接下来的路演期间确定。京东健康上市团队暂定的时间表为，11月25日开始招股，12月7日或8日敲钟。但是，最后的时间表还需依路演进展随时调整。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202011171859227981a2fa&s=b><strong>新浪财经综合</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>据媒体报道，京东健康将于下周周中启动招股并计划于12月第二周周初敲钟，抢跑当前已经过了聆讯的蓝月亮以及恒大物业等公司IPO。京东健康已于11月16日开始分析师路演，此次计划募资40亿美元，准确的募资金额将在接下来的路演期间确定。京东健康上市团队暂定的时间表为，11月25日开始招股，12月7日或8日敲钟。但是，最后的时间表还需依路演进展随时调整。</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202011171859227981a2fa&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/420d3ceae2e67779099ecfc1a7b7e62a","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","JD":"京东"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202011171859227981a2fa&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2084496439","content_text":"据媒体报道，京东健康将于下周周中启动招股并计划于12月第二周周初敲钟，抢跑当前已经过了聆讯的蓝月亮以及恒大物业等公司IPO。京东健康已于11月16日开始分析师路演，此次计划募资40亿美元，准确的募资金额将在接下来的路演期间确定。京东健康上市团队暂定的时间表为，11月25日开始招股，12月7日或8日敲钟。但是，最后的时间表还需依路演进展随时调整。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":307683147,"gmtCreate":1605540064389,"gmtModify":1703838197126,"author":{"id":"3443439244787362","authorId":"3443439244787362","name":"UncleJason","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3443439244787362","authorIdStr":"3443439244787362"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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