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Michael__Han
2023-11-08
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
抱歉,原内容已删除
Michael__Han
2021-03-18
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
抱歉,原内容已删除
Michael__Han
2021-03-05
好票关注,加油
Michael__Han
2021-03-03
分享一下,分享一下
Michael__Han
2021-03-02
是的是的师爹
@北美韭菜日记: Jim Cramer: ARK基金应该立刻关闭!国债收益率陡增对ARK的影响,如何应对?
Michael__Han
2021-02-28
一起参考,不知道怎么选
Michael__Han
2021-02-28
$苹果(AAPL)$
好
Michael__Han
2021-02-27
还有钱途吗
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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\n \n Jim Cramer: ARK基金应该立刻关闭!国债收益率陡增对ARK的影响,如何应对?\n \n","listText":"Jim Cramer: ARK基金应该立刻关闭!国债收益率陡增对ARK的影响,如何应对?","text":"Jim Cramer: ARK基金应该立刻关闭!国债收益率陡增对ARK的影响,如何应对?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ee28600802e96124afd5d2e39fcd903","width":"0","height":"0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368380236","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"5c33c06bde254a9ea98dae5aaaeaae7f","tweetId":"368380236","title":"Jim Cramer: 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>好","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>好","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$好","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2836247d9c234567d6a731bc43ede0","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366625563","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":366976811,"gmtCreate":1614389085633,"gmtModify":1703477183854,"author":{"id":"3441331844871102","authorId":"3441331844871102","authorIdStr":"3441331844871102","name":"Michael__Han","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16cffbbc2ed30148d7b68b44d6843a27","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3441331844871102"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"还有钱途吗","listText":"还有钱途吗","text":"还有钱途吗","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e59d4aaeab1602467dff696d95918f8","width":"1080","height":"2028"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366976811","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1064,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":366625563,"gmtCreate":1614477404952,"gmtModify":1703477706320,"author":{"id":"3441331844871102","authorId":"3441331844871102","authorIdStr":"3441331844871102","name":"Michael__Han","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16cffbbc2ed30148d7b68b44d6843a27","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3441331844871102"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>好","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>好","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$好","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2836247d9c234567d6a731bc43ede0","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366625563","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":239329799229536,"gmtCreate":1699458471041,"gmtModify":1699458472377,"author":{"id":"3441331844871102","authorId":"3441331844871102","authorIdStr":"3441331844871102","name":"Michael__Han","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16cffbbc2ed30148d7b68b44d6843a27","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3441331844871102"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/239329799229536","repostId":"1152644832","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1152644832","pubTimestamp":1699442700,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152644832?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-11-08 19:25","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"高瓴投资张磊:亚洲伟大公司正在诞生,要投资亚洲市场","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152644832","media":"投资作业本","summary":"私人信贷将是亚洲新的增长领域。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>核心观点:</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1、现在的亚洲正面对着经济放缓的挑战,但是我们却看到,伟大的公司正在诞生。<br/><br/>2、<strong>那些在科技方面领先的公司,和员工有互动,和分销商、供应商保持良好的长期关系的公司才能够成功</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">3、<strong>亚洲的私人信贷确实正在快速崛起,一些公司需要过渡的资本,而另一些公司正在面临代际传承的问题,在亚洲,老牌企业的杠杆要比美国同行低得多,私人信贷将是亚洲新的增长领域。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">4、越来越多的跨区域合作正在发生,在这些困难的重组过程中,作为投资者的你会有很多机会可以牢牢把握。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">5、公司的杠杆很低,但增速却非常迅速,<strong>这就是亚洲公司的美妙之处,他们的资产负债表大多管理良好,即便是有私募股权基金参与的公司也同样如此。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">6、还是要投资亚洲市场,未来几年投资亚洲所带来的增长将来自于私人信贷、私人股权、实物资产、基础设施等资产类别。<strong>我们也将看到未来私募领域可能会迎来一些新型的资产业务。</strong></p><p>11月8日,高瓴投资创始人兼董事长张磊在第二届金融领袖投资峰会上作出了上述分享和判断。<br/><br/>张磊凭借着犀利的投资眼光,挖掘了京东、腾讯、美团等优质企业,带领高瓴集团成为亚洲地区资产管理规模最大的投资基金之一,人称“中国巴菲特”、“投资教父”,入选了“中国改革开放海归40年40人”榜单和2022年中国最具影响力的30位投资人。<br/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3c97f100376295af9f4db7e2e3c5c37\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\"/></p><p><br/>他认为,亚洲市场的私人信贷领域正迎来快速崛起,越来越多的跨区域合作正在发生,并指出了亚洲公司的美妙之处,提出投资亚洲市场的建议,还强调了在构建投资组合时要加强韧性。</p><h2 id=\"id_1041799400\">亚洲伟大公司正在诞生</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">大多数成功的公司其实都是在最具挑战、最艰难的时候诞生的,而不是在风和日丽的时候诞生的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">大家想一想<strong>现在的亚洲,我们正面对着经济放缓的挑战,但是我们却看到,伟大的公司正在诞生</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>我们投资了很多传统的行业,这些行业的公司也遇到了阻力</strong>。比如我们购买了世界上最大的鞋类零售商之一,但在疫情期间,大家都穿拖鞋,不需要高跟鞋。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们也购买了房地产公司,但是房地产行业也放缓了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但这些公司与科技公司相比,可能处于不同周期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们从中学到,<strong>那些在科技方面领先的公司,和员工有互动,和分销商、供应商保持良好的长期关系的公司,这样的公司才能够成功</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这就让我想起1998年的时候,当时我的老师,耶鲁捐赠基金主席Charles Ellis写了一本书,他说,我们要赢得输家的游戏,就像在网球比赛中一样,你不需要成为最强者,只需要稳住,等待对手出现非受迫性失误即可。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在这种情况下,我告诉我的管理团队,你们不需要超级聪明,<strong>要做的就是长期一致,稳定地做正确的事情,实际上,你就可以获得很多市场份额。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我在投资的公司中看到了这一点,他们做得非常好。<strong>我真的很尊重那些能够走过艰难时期、展现领导力,并继续成长的企业。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">你知道的,周期周而复始。当周期反转过来,他们将会是更强大的公司。</p><h2 id=\"id_869430459\">亚洲信贷正快速崛起</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">关于私人信贷方面,<strong>亚洲的私人信贷确实正在快速崛起</strong>,一些公司需要过渡的资本,而另一些公司正在面临代际传承的问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他们还不确定是否要真的卖掉所有股权,但他们确定需要合作伙伴来共渡难关,人们说,在美国,私人信贷可以获得如此高的回报,但<strong>在亚洲,老牌企业的杠杆要比美国同行低得多。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">很多公司的状况实际很好,许多人在管理公司资产负债表上较为保守,公司也存在更高的增长潜力。因此,我会说,<strong>私人信贷将是亚洲新的增长领域。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另外一点是比较特殊的情况,正如我们所知,现在<strong>越来越多的跨区域合作正在发生。</strong>有中国公司去东南亚运作,也有韩国公司去美国展开业务。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在这些困难的重组过程中,作为投资者的你会有很多机会可以牢牢把握。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">回到弹性的问题,<strong>对于企业家来说,更多的工具箱刚刚为他们打开,如果你做的好,会有很多东西可供使用。<br/></strong><br/>亚洲非常注重股权融资,过往往往没有太多的其他工具,我们会帮助这些公司成长。</p><h2 id=\"id_4289944035\">亚洲公司的美妙之处</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果你看亚洲在过去的增长引擎,很大程度上是由需求驱动的。但是现在,<strong>我们正在看到供应方面的整合。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其次,我们<strong>看到管理层变得更加成熟了</strong>。我刚刚见了一家泛亚区域的医疗保健公司的管理团队,我对CEO印象非常深刻。<br/><br/>泛亚洲市场非常分散,有不同的细分市场,他们是如何深思熟虑进入这些市场的呢?</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们发现,这家公司的杠杆很低,但增速却非常迅速。<strong>我想,这就是亚洲公司的美妙之处,他们的资产负债表大多管理良好,即便是有私募股权基金参与的公司也同样如此。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">多年来,我们看到,管理方面的人才比以前更多,10年、20年前,你看不到那么多,但<strong>现在真的有很多管理方面非常优秀的人才</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我对此印象深刻,特别是那些传统行业的管理者,他们的业务不像造火箭,也不像AI一样,但<strong>他们知道如何拓展业务,如何渗透不同的市场,如何将传统的业务做好。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">关于对2024年亚洲私募市场的预测,我认为<strong>要增加韧性,为现在的投资组合加入足够的韧性</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>还是要投资亚洲市场,未来几年投资亚洲所带来的增长将来自于私人信贷、私人股权、实物资产、基础设施等资产类别。我们也将看到未来私募领域可能会迎来一些新型的资产业务。</strong></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1597111094582","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高瓴投资张磊:亚洲伟大公司正在诞生,要投资亚洲市场</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高瓴投资张磊:亚洲伟大公司正在诞生,要投资亚洲市场\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-11-08 19:25 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZZ9qgIr84XuiTeY-ctuA_Q><strong>投资作业本</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>核心观点:1、现在的亚洲正面对着经济放缓的挑战,但是我们却看到,伟大的公司正在诞生。2、那些在科技方面领先的公司,和员工有互动,和分销商、供应商保持良好的长期关系的公司才能够成功。3、亚洲的私人信贷确实正在快速崛起,一些公司需要过渡的资本,而另一些公司正在面临代际传承的问题,在亚洲,老牌企业的杠杆要比美国同行低得多,私人信贷将是亚洲新的增长领域。4、越来越多的跨区域合作正在发生,在这些困难的重组...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZZ9qgIr84XuiTeY-ctuA_Q\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7324f5029196e0f616679922bab6c33b","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZZ9qgIr84XuiTeY-ctuA_Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152644832","content_text":"核心观点:1、现在的亚洲正面对着经济放缓的挑战,但是我们却看到,伟大的公司正在诞生。2、那些在科技方面领先的公司,和员工有互动,和分销商、供应商保持良好的长期关系的公司才能够成功。3、亚洲的私人信贷确实正在快速崛起,一些公司需要过渡的资本,而另一些公司正在面临代际传承的问题,在亚洲,老牌企业的杠杆要比美国同行低得多,私人信贷将是亚洲新的增长领域。4、越来越多的跨区域合作正在发生,在这些困难的重组过程中,作为投资者的你会有很多机会可以牢牢把握。5、公司的杠杆很低,但增速却非常迅速,这就是亚洲公司的美妙之处,他们的资产负债表大多管理良好,即便是有私募股权基金参与的公司也同样如此。6、还是要投资亚洲市场,未来几年投资亚洲所带来的增长将来自于私人信贷、私人股权、实物资产、基础设施等资产类别。我们也将看到未来私募领域可能会迎来一些新型的资产业务。11月8日,高瓴投资创始人兼董事长张磊在第二届金融领袖投资峰会上作出了上述分享和判断。张磊凭借着犀利的投资眼光,挖掘了京东、腾讯、美团等优质企业,带领高瓴集团成为亚洲地区资产管理规模最大的投资基金之一,人称“中国巴菲特”、“投资教父”,入选了“中国改革开放海归40年40人”榜单和2022年中国最具影响力的30位投资人。他认为,亚洲市场的私人信贷领域正迎来快速崛起,越来越多的跨区域合作正在发生,并指出了亚洲公司的美妙之处,提出投资亚洲市场的建议,还强调了在构建投资组合时要加强韧性。亚洲伟大公司正在诞生大多数成功的公司其实都是在最具挑战、最艰难的时候诞生的,而不是在风和日丽的时候诞生的。大家想一想现在的亚洲,我们正面对着经济放缓的挑战,但是我们却看到,伟大的公司正在诞生。我们投资了很多传统的行业,这些行业的公司也遇到了阻力。比如我们购买了世界上最大的鞋类零售商之一,但在疫情期间,大家都穿拖鞋,不需要高跟鞋。我们也购买了房地产公司,但是房地产行业也放缓了。但这些公司与科技公司相比,可能处于不同周期。我们从中学到,那些在科技方面领先的公司,和员工有互动,和分销商、供应商保持良好的长期关系的公司,这样的公司才能够成功。这就让我想起1998年的时候,当时我的老师,耶鲁捐赠基金主席Charles Ellis写了一本书,他说,我们要赢得输家的游戏,就像在网球比赛中一样,你不需要成为最强者,只需要稳住,等待对手出现非受迫性失误即可。在这种情况下,我告诉我的管理团队,你们不需要超级聪明,要做的就是长期一致,稳定地做正确的事情,实际上,你就可以获得很多市场份额。我在投资的公司中看到了这一点,他们做得非常好。我真的很尊重那些能够走过艰难时期、展现领导力,并继续成长的企业。你知道的,周期周而复始。当周期反转过来,他们将会是更强大的公司。亚洲信贷正快速崛起关于私人信贷方面,亚洲的私人信贷确实正在快速崛起,一些公司需要过渡的资本,而另一些公司正在面临代际传承的问题。他们还不确定是否要真的卖掉所有股权,但他们确定需要合作伙伴来共渡难关,人们说,在美国,私人信贷可以获得如此高的回报,但在亚洲,老牌企业的杠杆要比美国同行低得多。很多公司的状况实际很好,许多人在管理公司资产负债表上较为保守,公司也存在更高的增长潜力。因此,我会说,私人信贷将是亚洲新的增长领域。另外一点是比较特殊的情况,正如我们所知,现在越来越多的跨区域合作正在发生。有中国公司去东南亚运作,也有韩国公司去美国展开业务。在这些困难的重组过程中,作为投资者的你会有很多机会可以牢牢把握。回到弹性的问题,对于企业家来说,更多的工具箱刚刚为他们打开,如果你做的好,会有很多东西可供使用。亚洲非常注重股权融资,过往往往没有太多的其他工具,我们会帮助这些公司成长。亚洲公司的美妙之处如果你看亚洲在过去的增长引擎,很大程度上是由需求驱动的。但是现在,我们正在看到供应方面的整合。其次,我们看到管理层变得更加成熟了。我刚刚见了一家泛亚区域的医疗保健公司的管理团队,我对CEO印象非常深刻。泛亚洲市场非常分散,有不同的细分市场,他们是如何深思熟虑进入这些市场的呢?我们发现,这家公司的杠杆很低,但增速却非常迅速。我想,这就是亚洲公司的美妙之处,他们的资产负债表大多管理良好,即便是有私募股权基金参与的公司也同样如此。多年来,我们看到,管理方面的人才比以前更多,10年、20年前,你看不到那么多,但现在真的有很多管理方面非常优秀的人才。我对此印象深刻,特别是那些传统行业的管理者,他们的业务不像造火箭,也不像AI一样,但他们知道如何拓展业务,如何渗透不同的市场,如何将传统的业务做好。关于对2024年亚洲私募市场的预测,我认为要增加韧性,为现在的投资组合加入足够的韧性。还是要投资亚洲市场,未来几年投资亚洲所带来的增长将来自于私人信贷、私人股权、实物资产、基础设施等资产类别。我们也将看到未来私募领域可能会迎来一些新型的资产业务。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":462,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":327840898,"gmtCreate":1616077830914,"gmtModify":1616077830914,"author":{"id":"3441331844871102","authorId":"3441331844871102","authorIdStr":"3441331844871102","name":"Michael__Han","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16cffbbc2ed30148d7b68b44d6843a27","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3441331844871102"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327840898","repostId":"1183811952","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183811952","pubTimestamp":1616052511,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183811952?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-18 15:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美债的几个关键位置:到这个数字美股就危险了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183811952","media":"雪涛宏观笔记","summary":"在利率上升到更高水平之前,美联储可能只会进行鸽派喊话。","content":"<p>作者:宋雪涛</p>\n<p>2月以来,美债10Y利率从1.0%-1.1%上行到1.5%-1.6%,1个半月(2月-3月中)的上升幅度(~50bp)相当于之前6个月(去年8月-今年1月)的总和。实际利率的上升起了主要作用:2月以来美债10Y实际利率上升了40bp,而(盈亏平衡)通胀预期只上升了13bp,维持在2.2%附近。</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td><p>图1:实际利率与通胀预期</p></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7832b057273488212cecefac469537ac\" tg-width=\"723\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td><p>资料来源:Wind,天风证券研究所</p></td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>实际利率的回升反映了经济和政策两个方面的预期定价。</b>经济方面是美国疫苗加速接种,经济和就业加速改善。根据美国疾控中心(CDC)的数据,美国已经接种超过1亿剂。2月非农就业失业率继续下降至6.2%。政策方面是1.9万亿财政计划增加供给,联储对利率回升仍然保持「淡定」。去年8月以来,美联储每月国债购买量基本没有变化,维持在800亿美元上下。3月4日鲍威尔接受采访时也说「金融市场波动还没有到影响联储目标(长期就业和平均通胀)的程度」。</p>\n<p><b>从以上两方面来看,实际利率的回升还会继续。</b>在经济复苏的斜率和联储对于利率回升的态度没有发生变化之前,实际利率回升的趋势不会改变。但如果把时间拉长到过去20年,实际利率的长期趋势是向下的。2008年之前,实际利率的水平是2%;而2008年之后,实际利率长期位于0%-1%之间;疫情前,实际利率已经在0%附近。</p>\n<p>剥离长期趋势后,当前实际利率(-0.66%左右)仍然处在历史较低水平(17.4%分位)。考虑到经济K型复苏和央行长时间宽松的趋势难以逆转,<b>预计实际利率的反弹高点大约在0.2%-0.3%左右</b>,对应70%-80%历史分位,约等于2019年的平均水平。</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td><p>图2:美债10年期实际利率、周期项和趋势项</p></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f516bc3a6820f2d007f3f6d1430b73e\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td><p>资料来源:Wind,天风证券研究所</p></td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>投资者对于长期增长和通胀超预期的担忧并不深刻。</b>年初至今,美债期限溢价上升幅度最大的久期阶段是1~2年和2~3年,之后依次递减,反映市场对于短期复苏和货币宽松收敛的预期定价超过了中长期。</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td><p>图3:年初至今各阶段期限溢价变动幅度</p></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db9c7dd3cbdbaeef45082ec9ee3db419\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td><p>资料来源:纽约联储,天风证券研究所</p></td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>当前通胀预期已经处在历史高位(99.5%分位)。</b>美国页岩油产能恢复不及预期给了OPEC继续减产维持高油价的空间,上半年油价可能在高位剧烈震荡,但下半年通胀预期可能随油价回落。从之前几轮历史经验来看,通胀预期领先实际利率半年左右,实际利率见顶时,通胀预期已经回落至中位数附近。预计本轮实际利率见顶时,通胀预期将回落至1.7%-1.8%左右,<b>对应本轮美债10Y利率的高点大约为1.9%-2.1%。</b></p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td><p>图4:盈亏平衡通胀预期、周期项和趋势项</p></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00fd610549bf4fde6fa8b04b4d92bbfe\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td><p>资料来源:Wind,天风证券研究所</p></td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>我们2月11日在《美债利率上行空间有多少》中用三因子模型测算发现:(1)到今年年底,美债10Y利率的波动区间为1.38%-1.71%;(2)美债利率年内高点在1.8%左右,通胀超预期和联储提前缩减QE(或传递信号)是主要上行风险;(3)3-5月是利率上升最快的阶段,5月之后进入高位震荡。</p>\n<p>实际上美债10Y利率在3月5日升至1.5%-1.6%,上升速度超出了我们当时预期。目前来看,<b>利率上行的时间和空间尚不充分,年内上升空间预计仍有20-30bp,5月后运行区间将位于1.5%-1.8%</b>(低期限溢价情形)<b>。但是利率回升最快的阶段可能已经经历,后续上升斜率将放缓,震荡将加大。</b></p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td><p>图5:三因子模型预测年内美债走势</p></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bea5595310b330b3ab6a72b7a51a6b0\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td><p>资料来源:Bloomberg,天风证券研究所</p></td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>对于股票而言,实际利率上升意味着实际融资成本抬升,压力大于通胀预期回升。</b>2003年以来的实证结果显示,美债10Y实际利率与标普500市盈率的相关系数为-0.41。因此2月以来美债实际利率快速回升后,特别是美债10Y利率迅速突破1.3%后,美股的高估值板块出现明显调整。2月1日-3月12日,道琼斯和纳斯达克的涨幅分别是9.3%和1.9%,MSCI价值和成长的涨幅分别是10.3%和1.0%。</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td><p>图6:美股估值水平时间序列及10年期国债实际利率</p></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/520c16190d472f7ed7a734d2070b40f9\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td><p>资料来源:Bloomberg,天风证券研究所</p></td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>从美股的风险定价水平来看,美债有几个关键位置对应了美股市场不同等级的风险状态。</b></p>\n<p><b>第一个关键位置是1.3%-1.5%</b>,对应了标普500的静态风险溢价低于历史分位数1.5个标准差。这个位置是纳斯达克的压力位,对应的是美股价值股的结构性行情,高估值成长股震荡下跌,低估值价值股修复,利率上升利好金融。</p>\n<p><b>第二个关键位置是1.7%-1.8%</b>,对应了标普500的动态风险溢价低于历史分位数1.5个标准差,同时道琼斯工业指数的静态风险溢价低于历史分位数1.0个标准差。这个位置是标普的压力位,一旦突破波动率将明显上升,此时联储可能出手干预美债长端利率的上升速度。</p>\n<p><b>第三个关键位置是2.0%-2.1%</b>,对应了我们前面预测的本轮美债利率上行的顶部区间。这个位置以上对于财政偿付和信用市场都是压力测试,对于美股可能触发更大的波动率释放,道琼斯可能转向震荡下跌,届时联储的工具选择将对市场走势至关重要。</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td><p>表1:美债长端利率对应美股风险溢价标准差</p></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cd7ecc59a787c98d543c5a98a75e168\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td><p>资料来源:Bloomberg,天风证券研究所</p></td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>联储在应对短期金融市场的「无序」上依然是近似万能的。</b>目前有多种工具可以选择用于平抑利率上升,从弱到强的排序依次是:(1)更强烈的鸽派喊话,(2)通过纽约联储直接购债,(3)扭曲操作(OT),(4)扩大QE规模,(5)有目标利率承诺的收益率曲线控制(YCC)。</p>\n<p>鲍威尔3月4日接受采访时称「当前金融市场的波动并没有到影响美联储目标」,也就是说<b>美债在1.5%附近时,联储会放任利率继续上升,波动不是问题。在利率上升到更高水平之前,美联储可能只会做点鸽派喊话,甚至不太可能对延长放松SLR(银行补充杠杆率)进行表态。</b></p>\n<p><b>当美债上升至1.7%-1.8%,美股波动率可能明显上升</b>,这是观察联储操作的关键位置,<b>联储有可能考虑通过扩大购债或进行扭曲操作来减缓利率上升的速度。如果利率上升到2.0%-2.1%,不仅是财政偿债息的压力较大,信用市场可能也开始出现新一轮风险,届时联储可能会考虑推迟QE缩减,甚至承诺收益率曲线控制(YCC)。</b></p>","source":"xthgbj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美债的几个关键位置:到这个数字美股就危险了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美债的几个关键位置:到这个数字美股就危险了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-18 15:28 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3l5QZb2TcPnxed4aoAsMAw><strong>雪涛宏观笔记</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者:宋雪涛\n2月以来,美债10Y利率从1.0%-1.1%上行到1.5%-1.6%,1个半月(2月-3月中)的上升幅度(~50bp)相当于之前6个月(去年8月-今年1月)的总和。实际利率的上升起了主要作用:2月以来美债10Y实际利率上升了40bp,而(盈亏平衡)通胀预期只上升了13bp,维持在2.2%附近。\n\n\n\n图1:实际利率与通胀预期\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源:Wind,天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n实际...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3l5QZb2TcPnxed4aoAsMAw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e54aaddff302c2c8e07be296a486ea34","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3l5QZb2TcPnxed4aoAsMAw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183811952","content_text":"作者:宋雪涛\n2月以来,美债10Y利率从1.0%-1.1%上行到1.5%-1.6%,1个半月(2月-3月中)的上升幅度(~50bp)相当于之前6个月(去年8月-今年1月)的总和。实际利率的上升起了主要作用:2月以来美债10Y实际利率上升了40bp,而(盈亏平衡)通胀预期只上升了13bp,维持在2.2%附近。\n\n\n\n图1:实际利率与通胀预期\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源:Wind,天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n实际利率的回升反映了经济和政策两个方面的预期定价。经济方面是美国疫苗加速接种,经济和就业加速改善。根据美国疾控中心(CDC)的数据,美国已经接种超过1亿剂。2月非农就业失业率继续下降至6.2%。政策方面是1.9万亿财政计划增加供给,联储对利率回升仍然保持「淡定」。去年8月以来,美联储每月国债购买量基本没有变化,维持在800亿美元上下。3月4日鲍威尔接受采访时也说「金融市场波动还没有到影响联储目标(长期就业和平均通胀)的程度」。\n从以上两方面来看,实际利率的回升还会继续。在经济复苏的斜率和联储对于利率回升的态度没有发生变化之前,实际利率回升的趋势不会改变。但如果把时间拉长到过去20年,实际利率的长期趋势是向下的。2008年之前,实际利率的水平是2%;而2008年之后,实际利率长期位于0%-1%之间;疫情前,实际利率已经在0%附近。\n剥离长期趋势后,当前实际利率(-0.66%左右)仍然处在历史较低水平(17.4%分位)。考虑到经济K型复苏和央行长时间宽松的趋势难以逆转,预计实际利率的反弹高点大约在0.2%-0.3%左右,对应70%-80%历史分位,约等于2019年的平均水平。\n\n\n\n图2:美债10年期实际利率、周期项和趋势项\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源:Wind,天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n投资者对于长期增长和通胀超预期的担忧并不深刻。年初至今,美债期限溢价上升幅度最大的久期阶段是1~2年和2~3年,之后依次递减,反映市场对于短期复苏和货币宽松收敛的预期定价超过了中长期。\n\n\n\n图3:年初至今各阶段期限溢价变动幅度\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源:纽约联储,天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n当前通胀预期已经处在历史高位(99.5%分位)。美国页岩油产能恢复不及预期给了OPEC继续减产维持高油价的空间,上半年油价可能在高位剧烈震荡,但下半年通胀预期可能随油价回落。从之前几轮历史经验来看,通胀预期领先实际利率半年左右,实际利率见顶时,通胀预期已经回落至中位数附近。预计本轮实际利率见顶时,通胀预期将回落至1.7%-1.8%左右,对应本轮美债10Y利率的高点大约为1.9%-2.1%。\n\n\n\n图4:盈亏平衡通胀预期、周期项和趋势项\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源:Wind,天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n我们2月11日在《美债利率上行空间有多少》中用三因子模型测算发现:(1)到今年年底,美债10Y利率的波动区间为1.38%-1.71%;(2)美债利率年内高点在1.8%左右,通胀超预期和联储提前缩减QE(或传递信号)是主要上行风险;(3)3-5月是利率上升最快的阶段,5月之后进入高位震荡。\n实际上美债10Y利率在3月5日升至1.5%-1.6%,上升速度超出了我们当时预期。目前来看,利率上行的时间和空间尚不充分,年内上升空间预计仍有20-30bp,5月后运行区间将位于1.5%-1.8%(低期限溢价情形)。但是利率回升最快的阶段可能已经经历,后续上升斜率将放缓,震荡将加大。\n\n\n\n图5:三因子模型预测年内美债走势\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源:Bloomberg,天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n对于股票而言,实际利率上升意味着实际融资成本抬升,压力大于通胀预期回升。2003年以来的实证结果显示,美债10Y实际利率与标普500市盈率的相关系数为-0.41。因此2月以来美债实际利率快速回升后,特别是美债10Y利率迅速突破1.3%后,美股的高估值板块出现明显调整。2月1日-3月12日,道琼斯和纳斯达克的涨幅分别是9.3%和1.9%,MSCI价值和成长的涨幅分别是10.3%和1.0%。\n\n\n\n图6:美股估值水平时间序列及10年期国债实际利率\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源:Bloomberg,天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n从美股的风险定价水平来看,美债有几个关键位置对应了美股市场不同等级的风险状态。\n第一个关键位置是1.3%-1.5%,对应了标普500的静态风险溢价低于历史分位数1.5个标准差。这个位置是纳斯达克的压力位,对应的是美股价值股的结构性行情,高估值成长股震荡下跌,低估值价值股修复,利率上升利好金融。\n第二个关键位置是1.7%-1.8%,对应了标普500的动态风险溢价低于历史分位数1.5个标准差,同时道琼斯工业指数的静态风险溢价低于历史分位数1.0个标准差。这个位置是标普的压力位,一旦突破波动率将明显上升,此时联储可能出手干预美债长端利率的上升速度。\n第三个关键位置是2.0%-2.1%,对应了我们前面预测的本轮美债利率上行的顶部区间。这个位置以上对于财政偿付和信用市场都是压力测试,对于美股可能触发更大的波动率释放,道琼斯可能转向震荡下跌,届时联储的工具选择将对市场走势至关重要。\n\n\n\n表1:美债长端利率对应美股风险溢价标准差\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源:Bloomberg,天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n联储在应对短期金融市场的「无序」上依然是近似万能的。目前有多种工具可以选择用于平抑利率上升,从弱到强的排序依次是:(1)更强烈的鸽派喊话,(2)通过纽约联储直接购债,(3)扭曲操作(OT),(4)扩大QE规模,(5)有目标利率承诺的收益率曲线控制(YCC)。\n鲍威尔3月4日接受采访时称「当前金融市场的波动并没有到影响美联储目标」,也就是说美债在1.5%附近时,联储会放任利率继续上升,波动不是问题。在利率上升到更高水平之前,美联储可能只会做点鸽派喊话,甚至不太可能对延长放松SLR(银行补充杠杆率)进行表态。\n当美债上升至1.7%-1.8%,美股波动率可能明显上升,这是观察联储操作的关键位置,联储有可能考虑通过扩大购债或进行扭曲操作来减缓利率上升的速度。如果利率上升到2.0%-2.1%,不仅是财政偿债息的压力较大,信用市场可能也开始出现新一轮风险,届时联储可能会考虑推迟QE缩减,甚至承诺收益率曲线控制(YCC)。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":763,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":367372362,"gmtCreate":1614915324656,"gmtModify":1703482926023,"author":{"id":"3441331844871102","authorId":"3441331844871102","authorIdStr":"3441331844871102","name":"Michael__Han","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16cffbbc2ed30148d7b68b44d6843a27","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3441331844871102"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好票关注,加油","listText":"好票关注,加油","text":"好票关注,加油","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7050f5faf35a4b13fc21981524c7935","width":"1080","height":"2256"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367372362","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":991,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":365610859,"gmtCreate":1614734045571,"gmtModify":1703480426991,"author":{"id":"3441331844871102","authorId":"3441331844871102","authorIdStr":"3441331844871102","name":"Michael__Han","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16cffbbc2ed30148d7b68b44d6843a27","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3441331844871102"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"分享一下,分享一下","listText":"分享一下,分享一下","text":"分享一下,分享一下","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76296d878e3fddf0b50babe085911bf7","width":"1080","height":"2028"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365610859","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":740,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362532719,"gmtCreate":1614648130931,"gmtModify":1703479296130,"author":{"id":"3441331844871102","authorId":"3441331844871102","authorIdStr":"3441331844871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