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健脑合剂2号
2019-02-06
$拼多多(PDD)$ 说下理解,拼多多这次增发应该到不了10亿,按29.32的最高价格3700万股才10亿出头,你是投资人会按这个价投么?股票一个多月从16拉到30,再看发行价19,半年后就要市值翻50%?会直接按29块多接盘?而且早期投资人就是纯套现,纳斯达克指数现在又一直走高,随时有调整的可能。公布的运营数据,完全没说亏损,成本。再好看的数据不结合成本来看都没有什么意义。我如果是拼多多,要给明年攒子弹,也会猛拉,如果一直维持在16-25的区间,增发会更低,如果破发,那还不如ipo性价比高呢。 如果你是券商或者投资人,你愿意多少成本接现在拼多多的3700万增发?
健脑合剂2号
2019-03-18
中概妖股qtt理性分析,财报去水。
$趣头条(QTT)$ 转一个私募朋友对基本面的评价,相信和蔚来一样总会回归价值面,即使用的时间长一些,开始考虑用put建部分空仓,慢慢等流通股放出来,但小心短期的继续轧空 趣头条18Q4财报分析 财报去水。因为米读小说的数据也加到Q4,所以要把米读的数据去除,这样会更清晰的看到趣头条APP的真实情况。去除米读后,趣头条的dau增长是627万,单个dau成本由Q3的58元升至87元,单个install仍然是6.5元,所以dau成本升高有两种可能性,一是conversion rate降低,二是churn rate升高。单个dau的收入由Q3的45.9元下降到Q4的44.5元。去除米读后,趣头条单用户单日阅读时长56下降至55分钟。 单用户经济学。Cogs 15%, user engagement cost46%, other S&M4%, r&D G&A 11%一共是76%,这里没有包括user acquisition cost,也就是一天一个DAU的净利润是0.1元,但获取的成本已经升至87元,两年半才能回本。content procurement没有任何增加,说明公司没想做内容,就是靠loyalty program销售策略为先。WEIBO一个MAU的估值35美金,QTT现在7000万MAU,单个MAU50美金,absurd。 广告定价。趣头条的第一广告主是电商,以下沉市场为主,推测主要是拼多多和京东,和趣头条一样都是腾讯系,京东又是QTT的基石投资者,所以给趣头条的广告价格是不是公允的,值得质疑。按道理,趣头条的用户非常low的,价值很低。 亏损低估。净资产是15亿人民币,Q4 nongaap loss是3.7亿,但这个亏损是被低估的,负债表中registered user’s loyalty payable是2.6亿,accrued li
中概妖股qtt理性分析,财报去水。
健脑合剂2号
2019-02-06
$趣头条(QTT)$ 趣头条6 ios版本6个月没更新了,你们知道吗?
健脑合剂2号
2019-02-06
$趣头条(QTT)$ 过年被冲击的很厉害,各个应用商店排名掉的很厉害。
健脑合剂2号
2019-02-06
$拼多多(PDD)$ 接盘也是拼多多和机构之间的博弈,投资人会判断这次增发对拼多多的重要性,如果判断比较重要,那肯定往下压价格,因为拼多多已经没有其他渠道去融资了。
健脑合剂2号
2020-01-25
金鼠年来啦,我想回本
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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转一个私募朋友对基本面的评价,相信和蔚来一样总会回归价值面,即使用的时间长一些,开始考虑用put建部分空仓,慢慢等流通股放出来,但小心短期的继续轧空 趣头条18Q4财报分析 财报去水。因为米读小说的数据也加到Q4,所以要把米读的数据去除,这样会更清晰的看到趣头条APP的真实情况。去除米读后,趣头条的dau增长是627万,单个dau成本由Q3的58元升至87元,单个install仍然是6.5元,所以dau成本升高有两种可能性,一是conversion rate降低,二是churn rate升高。单个dau的收入由Q3的45.9元下降到Q4的44.5元。去除米读后,趣头条单用户单日阅读时长56下降至55分钟。 单用户经济学。Cogs 15%, user engagement cost46%, other S&M4%, r&D G&A 11%一共是76%,这里没有包括user acquisition cost,也就是一天一个DAU的净利润是0.1元,但获取的成本已经升至87元,两年半才能回本。content procurement没有任何增加,说明公司没想做内容,就是靠loyalty program销售策略为先。WEIBO一个MAU的估值35美金,QTT现在7000万MAU,单个MAU50美金,absurd。 广告定价。趣头条的第一广告主是电商,以下沉市场为主,推测主要是拼多多和京东,和趣头条一样都是腾讯系,京东又是QTT的基石投资者,所以给趣头条的广告价格是不是公允的,值得质疑。按道理,趣头条的用户非常low的,价值很低。 亏损低估。净资产是15亿人民币,Q4 nongaap loss是3.7亿,但这个亏损是被低估的,负债表中registered user’s loyalty payable是2.6亿,accrued li","listText":"$趣头条(QTT)$ 转一个私募朋友对基本面的评价,相信和蔚来一样总会回归价值面,即使用的时间长一些,开始考虑用put建部分空仓,慢慢等流通股放出来,但小心短期的继续轧空 趣头条18Q4财报分析 财报去水。因为米读小说的数据也加到Q4,所以要把米读的数据去除,这样会更清晰的看到趣头条APP的真实情况。去除米读后,趣头条的dau增长是627万,单个dau成本由Q3的58元升至87元,单个install仍然是6.5元,所以dau成本升高有两种可能性,一是conversion rate降低,二是churn rate升高。单个dau的收入由Q3的45.9元下降到Q4的44.5元。去除米读后,趣头条单用户单日阅读时长56下降至55分钟。 单用户经济学。Cogs 15%, user engagement cost46%, other S&M4%, r&D G&A 11%一共是76%,这里没有包括user acquisition cost,也就是一天一个DAU的净利润是0.1元,但获取的成本已经升至87元,两年半才能回本。content procurement没有任何增加,说明公司没想做内容,就是靠loyalty program销售策略为先。WEIBO一个MAU的估值35美金,QTT现在7000万MAU,单个MAU50美金,absurd。 广告定价。趣头条的第一广告主是电商,以下沉市场为主,推测主要是拼多多和京东,和趣头条一样都是腾讯系,京东又是QTT的基石投资者,所以给趣头条的广告价格是不是公允的,值得质疑。按道理,趣头条的用户非常low的,价值很低。 亏损低估。净资产是15亿人民币,Q4 nongaap loss是3.7亿,但这个亏损是被低估的,负债表中registered user’s loyalty payable是2.6亿,accrued li","text":"$趣头条(QTT)$ 转一个私募朋友对基本面的评价,相信和蔚来一样总会回归价值面,即使用的时间长一些,开始考虑用put建部分空仓,慢慢等流通股放出来,但小心短期的继续轧空 趣头条18Q4财报分析 财报去水。因为米读小说的数据也加到Q4,所以要把米读的数据去除,这样会更清晰的看到趣头条APP的真实情况。去除米读后,趣头条的dau增长是627万,单个dau成本由Q3的58元升至87元,单个install仍然是6.5元,所以dau成本升高有两种可能性,一是conversion rate降低,二是churn rate升高。单个dau的收入由Q3的45.9元下降到Q4的44.5元。去除米读后,趣头条单用户单日阅读时长56下降至55分钟。 单用户经济学。Cogs 15%, user engagement cost46%, other S&M4%, r&D G&A 11%一共是76%,这里没有包括user acquisition cost,也就是一天一个DAU的净利润是0.1元,但获取的成本已经升至87元,两年半才能回本。content procurement没有任何增加,说明公司没想做内容,就是靠loyalty program销售策略为先。WEIBO一个MAU的估值35美金,QTT现在7000万MAU,单个MAU50美金,absurd。 广告定价。趣头条的第一广告主是电商,以下沉市场为主,推测主要是拼多多和京东,和趣头条一样都是腾讯系,京东又是QTT的基石投资者,所以给趣头条的广告价格是不是公允的,值得质疑。按道理,趣头条的用户非常low的,价值很低。 亏损低估。净资产是15亿人民币,Q4 nongaap loss是3.7亿,但这个亏损是被低估的,负债表中registered user’s loyalty payable是2.6亿,accrued li","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/432339","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3458386611938478","authorId":"3458386611938478","name":"于无声处起惊雷","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"还来财报分析?这庄想杀空头翻倍也就两天的事,筹码全部在庄手上。","text":"还来财报分析?这庄想杀空头翻倍也就两天的事,筹码全部在庄手上。","html":"还来财报分析?这庄想杀空头翻倍也就两天的事,筹码全部在庄手上。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":396117,"gmtCreate":1549463977059,"gmtModify":1704788976125,"author":{"id":"3438419117745332","authorId":"3438419117745332","name":"健脑合剂2号","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$拼多多(PDD)$ 接盘也是拼多多和机构之间的博弈,投资人会判断这次增发对拼多多的重要性,如果判断比较重要,那肯定往下压价格,因为拼多多已经没有其他渠道去融资了。","listText":"$拼多多(PDD)$ 接盘也是拼多多和机构之间的博弈,投资人会判断这次增发对拼多多的重要性,如果判断比较重要,那肯定往下压价格,因为拼多多已经没有其他渠道去融资了。","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$ 接盘也是拼多多和机构之间的博弈,投资人会判断这次增发对拼多多的重要性,如果判断比较重要,那肯定往下压价格,因为拼多多已经没有其他渠道去融资了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396117","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":396073,"gmtCreate":1549462740675,"gmtModify":1704788970594,"author":{"id":"3438419117745332","authorId":"3438419117745332","name":"健脑合剂2号","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$拼多多(PDD)$ 说下理解,拼多多这次增发应该到不了10亿,按29.32的最高价格3700万股才10亿出头,你是投资人会按这个价投么?股票一个多月从16拉到30,再看发行价19,半年后就要市值翻50%?会直接按29块多接盘?而且早期投资人就是纯套现,纳斯达克指数现在又一直走高,随时有调整的可能。公布的运营数据,完全没说亏损,成本。再好看的数据不结合成本来看都没有什么意义。我如果是拼多多,要给明年攒子弹,也会猛拉,如果一直维持在16-25的区间,增发会更低,如果破发,那还不如ipo性价比高呢。 如果你是券商或者投资人,你愿意多少成本接现在拼多多的3700万增发?","listText":"$拼多多(PDD)$ 说下理解,拼多多这次增发应该到不了10亿,按29.32的最高价格3700万股才10亿出头,你是投资人会按这个价投么?股票一个多月从16拉到30,再看发行价19,半年后就要市值翻50%?会直接按29块多接盘?而且早期投资人就是纯套现,纳斯达克指数现在又一直走高,随时有调整的可能。公布的运营数据,完全没说亏损,成本。再好看的数据不结合成本来看都没有什么意义。我如果是拼多多,要给明年攒子弹,也会猛拉,如果一直维持在16-25的区间,增发会更低,如果破发,那还不如ipo性价比高呢。 如果你是券商或者投资人,你愿意多少成本接现在拼多多的3700万增发?","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$ 说下理解,拼多多这次增发应该到不了10亿,按29.32的最高价格3700万股才10亿出头,你是投资人会按这个价投么?股票一个多月从16拉到30,再看发行价19,半年后就要市值翻50%?会直接按29块多接盘?而且早期投资人就是纯套现,纳斯达克指数现在又一直走高,随时有调整的可能。公布的运营数据,完全没说亏损,成本。再好看的数据不结合成本来看都没有什么意义。我如果是拼多多,要给明年攒子弹,也会猛拉,如果一直维持在16-25的区间,增发会更低,如果破发,那还不如ipo性价比高呢。 如果你是券商或者投资人,你愿意多少成本接现在拼多多的3700万增发?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396073","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9084,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3497921760935809","authorId":"3497921760935809","name":"汽车耿","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"拼多多官方消息显示,本次后续发行共计注册5190万股美国存托凭证,代表2.074亿A类普通股,其中拼多多将增发3700万股ADR,原有股东出售1480万股ADR。","text":"拼多多官方消息显示,本次后续发行共计注册5190万股美国存托凭证,代表2.074亿A类普通股,其中拼多多将增发3700万股ADR,原有股东出售1480万股ADR。","html":"拼多多官方消息显示,本次后续发行共计注册5190万股美国存托凭证,代表2.074亿A类普通股,其中拼多多将增发3700万股ADR,原有股东出售1480万股ADR。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":395912,"gmtCreate":1549440625378,"gmtModify":1704788952590,"author":{"id":"3438419117745332","authorId":"3438419117745332","name":"健脑合剂2号","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$趣头条(QTT)$ 趣头条6 ios版本6个月没更新了,你们知道吗?","listText":"$趣头条(QTT)$ 趣头条6 ios版本6个月没更新了,你们知道吗?","text":"$趣头条(QTT)$ 趣头条6 ios版本6个月没更新了,你们知道吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/395912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2948,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3438419117745332","authorId":"3438419117745332","name":"健脑合剂2号","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"@健脑合剂2号: 这种情况,明显是上了苹果的黑名单,苹果商店对app审核有一定的标准,趣头条这种模式一定是有审核开关。也就是提交审核是一套,过审之后打开开关,隐藏功能显示出来。空头的朋友,可以像苹果商店举报趣头条,苹果商店还是比较严格的。可能性比举报操纵股价高多了。","text":"@健脑合剂2号: 这种情况,明显是上了苹果的黑名单,苹果商店对app审核有一定的标准,趣头条这种模式一定是有审核开关。也就是提交审核是一套,过审之后打开开关,隐藏功能显示出来。空头的朋友,可以像苹果商店举报趣头条,苹果商店还是比较严格的。可能性比举报操纵股价高多了。","html":"@健脑合剂2号: 这种情况,明显是上了苹果的黑名单,苹果商店对app审核有一定的标准,趣头条这种模式一定是有审核开关。也就是提交审核是一套,过审之后打开开关,隐藏功能显示出来。空头的朋友,可以像苹果商店举报趣头条,苹果商店还是比较严格的。可能性比举报操纵股价高多了。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":395874,"gmtCreate":1549427002526,"gmtModify":1704788947227,"author":{"id":"3438419117745332","authorId":"3438419117745332","name":"健脑合剂2号","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$趣头条(QTT)$ 过年被冲击的很厉害,各个应用商店排名掉的很厉害。","listText":"$趣头条(QTT)$ 过年被冲击的很厉害,各个应用商店排名掉的很厉害。","text":"$趣头条(QTT)$ 过年被冲击的很厉害,各个应用商店排名掉的很厉害。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c95931a1c326d27128d875b4fb6dd5ab"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/395874","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1204,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3438419117745332","authorId":"3438419117745332","name":"健脑合剂2号","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"另外最近说的新上的米读app ios排名580左右,阅读排行榜19名,600万日活数据水分太大。ios+安卓60咱真量都算多的。","text":"另外最近说的新上的米读app ios排名580左右,阅读排行榜19名,600万日活数据水分太大。ios+安卓60咱真量都算多的。","html":"另外最近说的新上的米读app ios排名580左右,阅读排行榜19名,600万日活数据水分太大。ios+安卓60咱真量都算多的。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":396073,"gmtCreate":1549462740675,"gmtModify":1704788970594,"author":{"id":"3438419117745332","authorId":"3438419117745332","name":"健脑合剂2号","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$拼多多(PDD)$ 说下理解,拼多多这次增发应该到不了10亿,按29.32的最高价格3700万股才10亿出头,你是投资人会按这个价投么?股票一个多月从16拉到30,再看发行价19,半年后就要市值翻50%?会直接按29块多接盘?而且早期投资人就是纯套现,纳斯达克指数现在又一直走高,随时有调整的可能。公布的运营数据,完全没说亏损,成本。再好看的数据不结合成本来看都没有什么意义。我如果是拼多多,要给明年攒子弹,也会猛拉,如果一直维持在16-25的区间,增发会更低,如果破发,那还不如ipo性价比高呢。 如果你是券商或者投资人,你愿意多少成本接现在拼多多的3700万增发?","listText":"$拼多多(PDD)$ 说下理解,拼多多这次增发应该到不了10亿,按29.32的最高价格3700万股才10亿出头,你是投资人会按这个价投么?股票一个多月从16拉到30,再看发行价19,半年后就要市值翻50%?会直接按29块多接盘?而且早期投资人就是纯套现,纳斯达克指数现在又一直走高,随时有调整的可能。公布的运营数据,完全没说亏损,成本。再好看的数据不结合成本来看都没有什么意义。我如果是拼多多,要给明年攒子弹,也会猛拉,如果一直维持在16-25的区间,增发会更低,如果破发,那还不如ipo性价比高呢。 如果你是券商或者投资人,你愿意多少成本接现在拼多多的3700万增发?","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$ 说下理解,拼多多这次增发应该到不了10亿,按29.32的最高价格3700万股才10亿出头,你是投资人会按这个价投么?股票一个多月从16拉到30,再看发行价19,半年后就要市值翻50%?会直接按29块多接盘?而且早期投资人就是纯套现,纳斯达克指数现在又一直走高,随时有调整的可能。公布的运营数据,完全没说亏损,成本。再好看的数据不结合成本来看都没有什么意义。我如果是拼多多,要给明年攒子弹,也会猛拉,如果一直维持在16-25的区间,增发会更低,如果破发,那还不如ipo性价比高呢。 如果你是券商或者投资人,你愿意多少成本接现在拼多多的3700万增发?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396073","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9084,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3497921760935809","authorId":"3497921760935809","name":"汽车耿","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"拼多多官方消息显示,本次后续发行共计注册5190万股美国存托凭证,代表2.074亿A类普通股,其中拼多多将增发3700万股ADR,原有股东出售1480万股ADR。","text":"拼多多官方消息显示,本次后续发行共计注册5190万股美国存托凭证,代表2.074亿A类普通股,其中拼多多将增发3700万股ADR,原有股东出售1480万股ADR。","html":"拼多多官方消息显示,本次后续发行共计注册5190万股美国存托凭证,代表2.074亿A类普通股,其中拼多多将增发3700万股ADR,原有股东出售1480万股ADR。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":432339,"gmtCreate":1552914322897,"gmtModify":1704793435032,"author":{"id":"3438419117745332","authorId":"3438419117745332","name":"健脑合剂2号","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"中概妖股qtt理性分析,财报去水。","htmlText":"$趣头条(QTT)$ 转一个私募朋友对基本面的评价,相信和蔚来一样总会回归价值面,即使用的时间长一些,开始考虑用put建部分空仓,慢慢等流通股放出来,但小心短期的继续轧空 趣头条18Q4财报分析 财报去水。因为米读小说的数据也加到Q4,所以要把米读的数据去除,这样会更清晰的看到趣头条APP的真实情况。去除米读后,趣头条的dau增长是627万,单个dau成本由Q3的58元升至87元,单个install仍然是6.5元,所以dau成本升高有两种可能性,一是conversion rate降低,二是churn rate升高。单个dau的收入由Q3的45.9元下降到Q4的44.5元。去除米读后,趣头条单用户单日阅读时长56下降至55分钟。 单用户经济学。Cogs 15%, user engagement cost46%, other S&M4%, r&D G&A 11%一共是76%,这里没有包括user acquisition cost,也就是一天一个DAU的净利润是0.1元,但获取的成本已经升至87元,两年半才能回本。content procurement没有任何增加,说明公司没想做内容,就是靠loyalty program销售策略为先。WEIBO一个MAU的估值35美金,QTT现在7000万MAU,单个MAU50美金,absurd。 广告定价。趣头条的第一广告主是电商,以下沉市场为主,推测主要是拼多多和京东,和趣头条一样都是腾讯系,京东又是QTT的基石投资者,所以给趣头条的广告价格是不是公允的,值得质疑。按道理,趣头条的用户非常low的,价值很低。 亏损低估。净资产是15亿人民币,Q4 nongaap loss是3.7亿,但这个亏损是被低估的,负债表中registered user’s loyalty payable是2.6亿,accrued li","listText":"$趣头条(QTT)$ 转一个私募朋友对基本面的评价,相信和蔚来一样总会回归价值面,即使用的时间长一些,开始考虑用put建部分空仓,慢慢等流通股放出来,但小心短期的继续轧空 趣头条18Q4财报分析 财报去水。因为米读小说的数据也加到Q4,所以要把米读的数据去除,这样会更清晰的看到趣头条APP的真实情况。去除米读后,趣头条的dau增长是627万,单个dau成本由Q3的58元升至87元,单个install仍然是6.5元,所以dau成本升高有两种可能性,一是conversion rate降低,二是churn rate升高。单个dau的收入由Q3的45.9元下降到Q4的44.5元。去除米读后,趣头条单用户单日阅读时长56下降至55分钟。 单用户经济学。Cogs 15%, user engagement cost46%, other S&M4%, r&D G&A 11%一共是76%,这里没有包括user acquisition cost,也就是一天一个DAU的净利润是0.1元,但获取的成本已经升至87元,两年半才能回本。content procurement没有任何增加,说明公司没想做内容,就是靠loyalty program销售策略为先。WEIBO一个MAU的估值35美金,QTT现在7000万MAU,单个MAU50美金,absurd。 广告定价。趣头条的第一广告主是电商,以下沉市场为主,推测主要是拼多多和京东,和趣头条一样都是腾讯系,京东又是QTT的基石投资者,所以给趣头条的广告价格是不是公允的,值得质疑。按道理,趣头条的用户非常low的,价值很低。 亏损低估。净资产是15亿人民币,Q4 nongaap loss是3.7亿,但这个亏损是被低估的,负债表中registered user’s loyalty payable是2.6亿,accrued li","text":"$趣头条(QTT)$ 转一个私募朋友对基本面的评价,相信和蔚来一样总会回归价值面,即使用的时间长一些,开始考虑用put建部分空仓,慢慢等流通股放出来,但小心短期的继续轧空 趣头条18Q4财报分析 财报去水。因为米读小说的数据也加到Q4,所以要把米读的数据去除,这样会更清晰的看到趣头条APP的真实情况。去除米读后,趣头条的dau增长是627万,单个dau成本由Q3的58元升至87元,单个install仍然是6.5元,所以dau成本升高有两种可能性,一是conversion rate降低,二是churn rate升高。单个dau的收入由Q3的45.9元下降到Q4的44.5元。去除米读后,趣头条单用户单日阅读时长56下降至55分钟。 单用户经济学。Cogs 15%, user engagement cost46%, other S&M4%, r&D G&A 11%一共是76%,这里没有包括user acquisition cost,也就是一天一个DAU的净利润是0.1元,但获取的成本已经升至87元,两年半才能回本。content procurement没有任何增加,说明公司没想做内容,就是靠loyalty program销售策略为先。WEIBO一个MAU的估值35美金,QTT现在7000万MAU,单个MAU50美金,absurd。 广告定价。趣头条的第一广告主是电商,以下沉市场为主,推测主要是拼多多和京东,和趣头条一样都是腾讯系,京东又是QTT的基石投资者,所以给趣头条的广告价格是不是公允的,值得质疑。按道理,趣头条的用户非常low的,价值很低。 亏损低估。净资产是15亿人民币,Q4 nongaap loss是3.7亿,但这个亏损是被低估的,负债表中registered user’s loyalty payable是2.6亿,accrued li","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/432339","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3458386611938478","authorId":"3458386611938478","name":"于无声处起惊雷","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"还来财报分析?这庄想杀空头翻倍也就两天的事,筹码全部在庄手上。","text":"还来财报分析?这庄想杀空头翻倍也就两天的事,筹码全部在庄手上。","html":"还来财报分析?这庄想杀空头翻倍也就两天的事,筹码全部在庄手上。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":395912,"gmtCreate":1549440625378,"gmtModify":1704788952590,"author":{"id":"3438419117745332","authorId":"3438419117745332","name":"健脑合剂2号","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$趣头条(QTT)$ 趣头条6 ios版本6个月没更新了,你们知道吗?","listText":"$趣头条(QTT)$ 趣头条6 ios版本6个月没更新了,你们知道吗?","text":"$趣头条(QTT)$ 趣头条6 ios版本6个月没更新了,你们知道吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/395912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2948,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3438419117745332","authorId":"3438419117745332","name":"健脑合剂2号","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"@健脑合剂2号: 这种情况,明显是上了苹果的黑名单,苹果商店对app审核有一定的标准,趣头条这种模式一定是有审核开关。也就是提交审核是一套,过审之后打开开关,隐藏功能显示出来。空头的朋友,可以像苹果商店举报趣头条,苹果商店还是比较严格的。可能性比举报操纵股价高多了。","text":"@健脑合剂2号: 这种情况,明显是上了苹果的黑名单,苹果商店对app审核有一定的标准,趣头条这种模式一定是有审核开关。也就是提交审核是一套,过审之后打开开关,隐藏功能显示出来。空头的朋友,可以像苹果商店举报趣头条,苹果商店还是比较严格的。可能性比举报操纵股价高多了。","html":"@健脑合剂2号: 这种情况,明显是上了苹果的黑名单,苹果商店对app审核有一定的标准,趣头条这种模式一定是有审核开关。也就是提交审核是一套,过审之后打开开关,隐藏功能显示出来。空头的朋友,可以像苹果商店举报趣头条,苹果商店还是比较严格的。可能性比举报操纵股价高多了。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":395874,"gmtCreate":1549427002526,"gmtModify":1704788947227,"author":{"id":"3438419117745332","authorId":"3438419117745332","name":"健脑合剂2号","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$趣头条(QTT)$ 过年被冲击的很厉害,各个应用商店排名掉的很厉害。","listText":"$趣头条(QTT)$ 过年被冲击的很厉害,各个应用商店排名掉的很厉害。","text":"$趣头条(QTT)$ 过年被冲击的很厉害,各个应用商店排名掉的很厉害。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c95931a1c326d27128d875b4fb6dd5ab"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/395874","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1204,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3438419117745332","authorId":"3438419117745332","name":"健脑合剂2号","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"另外最近说的新上的米读app ios排名580左右,阅读排行榜19名,600万日活数据水分太大。ios+安卓60咱真量都算多的。","text":"另外最近说的新上的米读app ios排名580左右,阅读排行榜19名,600万日活数据水分太大。ios+安卓60咱真量都算多的。","html":"另外最近说的新上的米读app 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接盘也是拼多多和机构之间的博弈,投资人会判断这次增发对拼多多的重要性,如果判断比较重要,那肯定往下压价格,因为拼多多已经没有其他渠道去融资了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396117","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":912308513,"gmtCreate":1579902364432,"gmtModify":1704340635029,"author":{"id":"3438419117745332","authorId":"3438419117745332","name":"健脑合剂2号","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"金鼠年来啦,我想回本","listText":"金鼠年来啦,我想回本","text":"金鼠年来啦,我想回本","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/912308513","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}