仗剑天涯皖南子的个人主页 - 老虎社区

仗剑天涯皖南子

仗剑天涯皖南子

2019年落草為寇

IP属地：上海

124关注

6粉丝

4主题

0勋章

仗剑天涯皖南子

2019-03-20

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 加油加油加油

仗剑天涯皖南子

2019-03-20

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 看看帅气的老板

仗剑天涯皖南子

2019-03-20

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 拿好了666

仗剑天涯皖南子

2019-02-04

#城市追光# 新年快乐

仗剑天涯皖南子

2018-08-08

$微博(WB)$ 微博他妈的恶心

仗剑天涯皖南子

2018-07-13

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 持有继续不要放弃加油价值

仗剑天涯皖南子

2018-04-23

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

抱歉，原内容已删除

仗剑天涯皖南子

2018-02-26

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@vision:精华帖：美股常用网站汇总

仗剑天涯皖南子

2018-02-21

英伟达

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 持有

仗剑天涯皖南子

2018-01-30

有空间看好持有

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 看好持有

有空间看好持有

仗剑天涯皖南子

2018-01-16

$百度(BIDU)$ 错过了度娘错过了你

仗剑天涯皖南子

2017-11-10

继续持有看好

$海康威视继续看好，后续坚定持有

继续持有看好

仗剑天涯皖南子

2017-11-09

看好

$海康威视(002415)$看好

仗剑天涯皖南子

2017-11-01

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$看到190

仗剑天涯皖南子

2017-11-01

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$继续看好

仗剑天涯皖南子

2017-10-31

看涨继续

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$看涨继续

仗剑天涯皖南子

2017-10-26

铭记史册

$瑞思学科英语(REDU)$坚决持有

仗剑天涯皖南子

2017-09-29

$好未来(TAL)$上行趋势没变

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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微博他妈的恶心","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/238312","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1674,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":218790,"gmtCreate":1531488895092,"gmtModify":1704896766820,"author":{"id":"3438250155167248","authorId":"3438250155167248","name":"仗剑天涯皖南子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71ca73a270179dd8f3c32f4d0effa24c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ 持有继续不要放弃加油价值","listText":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ 持有继续不要放弃加油价值","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ 持有继续不要放弃加油价值","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9757e6779349b00afdbb9651e9e4341e"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/218790","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":180391,"gmtCreate":1524490710692,"gmtModify":1704891955814,"author":{"id":"3438250155167248","authorId":"3438250155167248","name":"仗剑天涯皖南子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71ca73a270179dd8f3c32f4d0effa24c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180391","repostId":"30321","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":161931,"gmtCreate":1519642519987,"gmtModify":1704889619174,"author":{"id":"3438250155167248","authorId":"3438250155167248","name":"仗剑天涯皖南子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71ca73a270179dd8f3c32f4d0effa24c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161931","repostId":"8498","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":8498,"gmtCreate":1453710380987,"gmtModify":1704870394390,"author":{"id":"5400656025182","authorId":"5400656025182","name":"vision","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d67e47e5bb77491f2c37ae81c5386950","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"精华帖：美股常用网站汇总","htmlText":"摘要：对于涨幅，跌幅，新股，ETF，恐慌指数等数据进行汇总的网站列表。炒股前必备。 一．查询美股涨幅前20：http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=110&amp;s=ta_topgainers 可用来观察每天涨幅前20的股票，可发现一段时间涨幅最大的股票，追涨杀跌。 例如， 福汇$(FXCM)$在2015年12月28日上涨了41.17%，第二天续涨25%，当时的上涨原因可参看“小心剁手，小心接盘“的文章，但如果当时抓到了上涨趋势，可两天净赚将近70%左右。 (另外，老虎股票行情页面也可以查询当天常见美股/中概股涨幅前十名。) &nbsp; 二．美股跌幅前20： http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=110&amp;s=ta_toplosers 例如,12月31日去哪儿网QUNR爆出的机票事件，当天跌幅为4%收于52.74美元，但到了1月7日时，去哪儿一度跌倒了36.27美元，共跌了33%。 麦克莫兰铜金$(FCX)$由于大宗商品不景气，2015年用一年事件股价由24美元跌倒了4美元，由于股票价格低于10美元，波动幅度很大，经常会领涨领跌。 (另外，老虎股票行情页面也可以查询当天常见美股/中概股跌幅前十名。) &nbsp; 三．评级查询upgrade：http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=110&amp;s=n_upgrades 评级查询downgrade：http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=110&amp;s=n_downgrades 分析师股票评级网站：https://www.tipranks.com/ 技术分析/期货查询：http://www.investing.com/ 网站可查询常见的股票的评级标准，以及通过MACD,布林线，50，200日均线等","listText":"摘要：对于涨幅，跌幅，新股，ETF，恐慌指数等数据进行汇总的网站列表。炒股前必备。 一．查询美股涨幅前20：http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=110&amp;s=ta_topgainers 可用来观察每天涨幅前20的股票，可发现一段时间涨幅最大的股票，追涨杀跌。 例如， 福汇$(FXCM)$在2015年12月28日上涨了41.17%，第二天续涨25%，当时的上涨原因可参看“小心剁手，小心接盘“的文章，但如果当时抓到了上涨趋势，可两天净赚将近70%左右。 (另外，老虎股票行情页面也可以查询当天常见美股/中概股涨幅前十名。) &nbsp; 二．美股跌幅前20： http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=110&amp;s=ta_toplosers 例如,12月31日去哪儿网QUNR爆出的机票事件，当天跌幅为4%收于52.74美元，但到了1月7日时，去哪儿一度跌倒了36.27美元，共跌了33%。 麦克莫兰铜金$(FCX)$由于大宗商品不景气，2015年用一年事件股价由24美元跌倒了4美元，由于股票价格低于10美元，波动幅度很大，经常会领涨领跌。 (另外，老虎股票行情页面也可以查询当天常见美股/中概股跌幅前十名。) &nbsp; 三．评级查询upgrade：http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=110&amp;s=n_upgrades 评级查询downgrade：http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=110&amp;s=n_downgrades 分析师股票评级网站：https://www.tipranks.com/ 技术分析/期货查询：http://www.investing.com/ 网站可查询常见的股票的评级标准，以及通过MACD,布林线，50，200日均线等","text":"摘要：对于涨幅，跌幅，新股，ETF，恐慌指数等数据进行汇总的网站列表。炒股前必备。 一．查询美股涨幅前20：http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=110&s=ta_topgainers 可用来观察每天涨幅前20的股票，可发现一段时间涨幅最大的股票，追涨杀跌。 例如， 福汇$(FXCM)$在2015年12月28日上涨了41.17%，第二天续涨25%，当时的上涨原因可参看“小心剁手，小心接盘“的文章，但如果当时抓到了上涨趋势，可两天净赚将近70%左右。 (另外，老虎股票行情页面也可以查询当天常见美股/中概股涨幅前十名。) 二．美股跌幅前20： http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=110&s=ta_toplosers 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加油加油加油","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7d51f056bf87468a339526819dc149"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/436793","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":436700,"gmtCreate":1553093228191,"gmtModify":1704794003805,"author":{"id":"3438250155167248","authorId":"3438250155167248","name":"仗剑天涯皖南子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71ca73a270179dd8f3c32f4d0effa24c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 看看帅气的老板","listText":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 看看帅气的老板","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 看看帅气的老板","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/436700","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":436672,"gmtCreate":1553093111903,"gmtModify":1704794000223,"author":{"id":"3438250155167248","authorId":"3438250155167248","name":"仗剑天涯皖南子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71ca73a270179dd8f3c32f4d0effa24c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 拿好了666","listText":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 拿好了666","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 拿好了666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/436672","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":180391,"gmtCreate":1524490710692,"gmtModify":1704891955814,"author":{"id":"3438250155167248","authorId":"3438250155167248","name":"仗剑天涯皖南子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71ca73a270179dd8f3c32f4d0effa24c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180391","repostId":"30321","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"30321","pubTimestamp":1524455746,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/30321?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2018-04-23 11:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"历史总是惊人相似：30多年前的美日贸易和广场协议","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=30321","media":"新浪科技","summary":"中美贸易战已经全面打响，其实，早在三十多年前，美国就曾对日本采取过类似措施。","content":"<div class=\"article-content-wrap\" id=\"article_content241233\">\n<p><strong><span class=\"text-remarks\">作者：郑峻，首发于微信公众号“猫叔在硅谷”</span></strong></p>\n<p><span class=\"text-remarks\"><strong>注：</strong>中美贸易战已经全面打响，其实，早在三十多年前，美国就曾对日本采取过类似措施，回首过去，你会发现彼时的日本和如今的中国有诸多类似，都对美国市场明显依赖，而美国，也在里根之后，迎来了又一位作风强硬的领导人。以史为鉴，或许就能看得更远。</span></p>\n<p>历史总是惊人相似，又总有不同之处。</p>\n<p><strong>在很多方面，现在的中美贸易形势都和三十多年前的日美贸易境况存在相似之处。</strong>此时的中国和彼时的日本，都是全球第二大经济体，经济都以出口为导向，出口商品都以物美价廉取胜，都对美国市场存在明显依赖，都对美国存在巨额贸易顺差，占据美国贸易逆差的三分之一以上。</p>\n<p><strong>而美国这边，此时与彼时都是强硬派共和党总统(里根与特朗普)主政</strong>，都以单边遏制为外交贸易政策基调，在面对巨额贸易逆差时，都频频祭出超级301条款进行威吓，甚至还有同样的贸易谈判代表。为了迫使日本同意日元升值，美国当时已经在起草法案，准备对日本对美国进口实施全面高关税。</p>\n<p>在这样的背景下，日本在美国的威吓引诱下屈服了，签署了那份著名的《广场协议》，同意日元兑美元大幅升值。随后几年，日本经济出现泡沫，投资大量涌向地产。1991年，日本房地产泡沫破灭，炒房民众大量破产，严重损害了消费能力。<strong>日本经济因此陷入了长达十多年的经济衰退，又被称为“迷失的十年”。</strong></p>\n<p class=\"text-big-title\"><strong>巨额贸易逆差</strong></p>\n<p>先来看看《广场协议》之前的美日贸易情况。上世纪八十年代初，美国经济出现了严重的通货膨胀，美联储被迫实施紧缩货币政策，导致美元大幅升值，严重影响到了出口竞争力，从而带来了巨额贸易逆差。而与此同时，日本处在经济高速增长的良好势头，延续着七十年代8%的经济增速，以汽车为代表的出口行业急剧增长，一跃成为仅次于美国的全球第二大经济体。</p>\n<p>从1980年到1985年，美元累计升值了60%，这直接冲击到了美国出口竞争力。1985年，美国的工业产品出口已经排在位列全球第三，落后于日本和西德。而当时正是日本制造风靡全球的时代，日本的汽车、半导体、摩托车、机械设备不但质量不逊于美国产品，还因为美元升值的原因明显具有价格优势。</p>\n<p>此消彼长，美国在二战之后第一次感受到巨额贸易逆差的压力。<strong>五年时间，美国贸易逆差从1980年的364亿美元急剧扩大到1985年的1485亿美元，增长了足足三倍。</strong>其中对日贸易逆差是主要原因。1978年美日贸易逆差首次突破100亿美元，到了1985年已经达到了500亿美元，占据了美国贸易逆差的三分之一。1985年美国外债总额1114亿美元，日本占据了其中的一半债权。</p>\n<p class=\"img-center-box\"><img data-h=\"300\" data-w=\"640\" src=\"https://static.laohu8.com/33b5e4a2-46aa-11e8-bfb9-1866da4de9be?dp_cmd=/imageView2/mode/2/q/30\" style=\"display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;\"/></p>\n<p>丰田和本田为代表的日本汽车在美国市场份额一度达到20%，年出口额达到240亿美元，成为美国最大的进口汽车国家。单是美国汽车业，八十年代初就有6万工人失业。在日本厂商的冲击下，美国传统制造业基地五大湖区的企业出现破产，导致大批工人失业。“铁锈带”(Rust Belt)这个名称正是起源于上世纪七八十年代。</p>\n<p class=\"img-center-box\"><img data-h=\"868\" data-w=\"1000\" src=\"https://static.laohu8.com/33fe488c-46aa-11e8-bfb9-1866da4de9be?dp_cmd=/imageView2/mode/2/q/30\"/></p>\n<p><strong>科技巨头英特尔能有今天甚至也要“感谢”日本厂商。</strong>英特尔原先的主营业务并不是集成芯片，而是DRAM存储芯片。但到了八十年代初期，在日本厂商的价格打压下，英特尔的存储芯片业务大幅积压，出现了严重的财务危机；当时担任总裁的传奇领导人安迪·格鲁夫(Andy Grove)破釜沉舟地在1983年决定抛弃存储芯片业务，带领英特尔全面转向集成芯片；这才成就了未来的芯片巨人英特尔。</p>\n<p class=\"text-big-title\"><strong>超级301砸晕日本</strong></p>\n<p>在这样的贸易逆差背景下，美国从上世纪70年代中期开始逐渐转向贸易保护主义，开始立法采取单方面贸易制裁措施，以应对日本带来的经济威胁。我们熟知的“超级301条款”也因此应运而生。</p>\n<p>1974年的美国《贸易法》加入了301条款，授权政府对“不公平”的外国贸易行为实施制裁和报复。</p>\n<p>1984年，美国国会对此进行了修订，把301条款的适用范围扩大到直接投资、服务和知识产权三大领域。301条款并不需要世界贸易组织批准，是美国的单方面行为。</p>\n<p><strong>说到美国的“超级301条款”，日本人的回忆都是眼泪，受伤的都是最具竞争力的产业。</strong>在中国人从新闻联播中得知“超级301条款”之前，这个贸易保护大棒打得最多的就是日本，先后挨了近二十次大棒，<strong>直至中国经济崛起，才接过了日本这口大黑锅。</strong></p>\n<p>1981年，美国迫使日本主动限制汽车出口；1983年，美国对日本摩托车征收高达45%的重税；1985年，美国迫使日本增加进口牛肉和橙子等美国农产品；1986年，美国迫使日本设置半导体对美出口价格下限，保证不在美国销售廉价芯片，还要日本保证进口半导体的市场份额；1987年，对日本电视和计算机征收100%的关税；1995年，对日本豪华轿车征收100%关税。同年，还有柯达对富士的胶卷大战。</p>\n<p><strong>面对美国的贸易大棒，日本为何如此软弱？</strong>除了二战之后日本在军事外交上严重依赖美国之外，日本的出口行业当时严重依赖于美国，而经济又是出口导向型。1984年，日本对美出口额占据了出口总额的35%。而出口对经济增长的贡献一直在30%。相比之下，2017年中国对美出口额为2.91万亿人民币，占出口总额的比例是19%。</p>\n<p>而且，日本当时的出口过于依靠成本优势，集中在家电、纺织、钢铁、汽车等领域，依靠的是此前十年引进的美国技术，缺乏自己的产业核心竞争力。正因为如此，在遭受美国贸易大棒的时候，日本政府首先想到的就是“让步保出口”。在美国的施压下，上世纪八十年代，日本更是多次主动限制自己对美出口。</p>\n<p class=\"text-big-title\"><strong>广场协议失控</strong></p>\n<p>让日本后悔莫及的《广场协议》正是在这样的贸易背景下签署的。1985年9月22日，美国、日本、英国、法国、德国(当时还是西德)的五大发达国家财政部长和央行行长在美国纽约中央公园南侧的广场酒店进行秘密会晤后签署协议，同意联合干预外汇市场，允许美元对日元等主要货币贬值，以化解美国的巨额贸易赤字。</p>\n<p class=\"img-center-box\"><img data-h=\"262\" data-w=\"400\" src=\"https://static.laohu8.com/34454e94-46aa-11e8-bfb9-1866da4de9be?dp_cmd=/imageView2/mode/2/q/30\" style=\"display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;\"/></p>\n<p>《广场协议》签订之前，美国已经与日本进行了多次贸易谈判，不仅以全面贸易制裁来威胁日本，更以“日元成为世界货币，日本成为世界大国”为条件吸引日本政府，要求日本允许日元升值，开放国内金融市场，实现利率自由化。对当时成为经济大国渴望国际地位的日本来说，美国的恩威并用起到了足够的效果。<strong>准确的说，日本是自愿签署这份协议的。</strong></p>\n<p class=\"img-center-box\"><img data-h=\"450\" data-w=\"680\" src=\"https://static.laohu8.com/34716c90-46aa-11e8-bfb9-1866da4de9be?dp_cmd=/imageView2/mode/2/q/30\" style=\"display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;\"/></p>\n<p>虽然广场协议涉及到多个工业强国，但影响最大的就是日本。广场协议宣布前，美元兑日元大致在1比250的水平<strong>，三个月不到，美元兑日元就急剧下滑到1比200，贬值了20%。一年之后，美元兑日元已经下滑到1比150的水平。</strong></p>\n<p>由于美元贬值速度过猛，1987年上述五国与加拿大又签署了《卢浮宫协议》，意在结束广场协议，阻止美元的持续贬值。但日元的升值势头却无法遏制，1988年美元兑日元达到了1比120的水平，比广场协议之前贬值了一半；到了1990年，甚至达到了1比80的历史高点。</p>\n<p>日元的急剧升值的直接后果就是出口明显下滑。1986年，日本出口总额就从上一年的41.96万亿日元下滑到35.29万亿日元，降幅高达16%。1987年，日本出口总额33.31万亿日元，比广场协议之前到1985年下滑了20%。不过，在广场协议中，日本经济遭受的冲击最重，也要归咎于日本央行的应对失策。</p>\n<p>为了弥补日元升值给出口带来的冲击，日本央行开始实施量化宽松政策，不断下调利率也导致流动资金过剩。此外，由于日元急剧升值，日本持有的美国国债资产出现账面亏损，大量资金开始回流到日本国内市场。<strong>日本开始了虚假繁荣的五年时光，在几年之内掏空了自己的经济竞争力。</strong></p>\n<p>由于日元急剧升值，日本企业开始在海外大举收购投资。日本在美国收购房地产占据了日本海外不动产投资的三分之二。1989年日本三菱集团旗下的三菱地所斥资14亿美元收购了纽约的象征洛克菲勒中心14座大楼，索尼斥资34亿美元收购了哥伦比亚电影公司，成为了日本收购热潮的代表之作。钱包变厚的日本游客纷涌出现在全球旅游景点。在国内，日本人也开始大举投资房地产，相信房价永远不会跌，民众为炒房背负了沉重的债务。</p>\n<p>1990年开始，面临金融风险的日本连续五次上调利率，导致房地产泡沫在1992年最终破灭，大量民众因为炒房破产，实体经济陷入硬着陆。整个九十年代，日本经济的增长率始终不足1.5%，远远低于八十年代平均增长率6%。1996年，三菱地所因巨额贷款被迫破产，美国人又以14亿美元买回了洛克菲勒中心；只不过当时的汇率是1989年的一半，美国人实际上只花了当年一半的价格。</p>\n<p class=\"text-big-title\"><strong>中国不是日本</strong></p>\n<p><strong>关于《广场协议》，外界一直存在着美国设计遏制日本经济增长的阴谋论说法。</strong>但严格来说，《广场协议》并不是导致日本经济长期衰退的直接原因。因为签署《广场协议》的其他国家，例如同样对美国存在大额贸易顺差的德国，虽然随后货币也明显升值，但其经济走势并没有遭受日本这样的惨烈后果，也没有出现地产泡沫。</p>\n<p><strong>普遍观点认为，日本政府在《广场协议》前后的一系列政策失误导致了日本经济在随后的几年形势急转直下。</strong>日本政府没有有效遏制日元的失控升值势头，更以失策的宽容政策引导经济转型，促使国内出现资产泡沫和炒房热潮，又采取急刹车的方式导致经济硬着陆，才是经济陷入长期衰退的主要罪魁。</p>\n<p class=\"img-center-box\"><img data-h=\"570\" data-w=\"856\" src=\"https://static.laohu8.com/349f822e-46aa-11e8-bfb9-1866da4de9be?dp_cmd=/imageView2/mode/2/q/30\"/></p>\n<p>值得一提的是，美国现任总统特朗普非常推崇强硬遏制著称的里根总统，后者又被美国民众视为最为成功的总统之一。特朗普在竞选之前就主张要以强硬手段重新进行贸易谈判，尤其是对中国采取高关税措施解决日益扩大的贸易逆差问题。而在上任一年之后，特朗普政府在本月提出了对中国500亿美元的关税，使得中美贸易战一触即发。</p>\n<p>现任美国贸易代表罗伯特·莱特希泽(Robert Lighthizer)，正是33年代表美国与日本直接谈判的贸易官员。作为美国鹰派主要人物，他当时是里根政府的副贸易代表。而诱导日本达成广场协议，迫使日本限制钢铁与汽车出口，大力倡导贸易保护措施，是莱特希泽为美国贸易达成的最知名成就。而现在，他又大力倡导对中国采取强硬贸易立场。</p>\n<p><strong>不过，中国并不是三十年前的日本。日本受到美国的军事保护，在外交政策方面始终为美国马首是瞻。</strong>在出口贸易方面，当时的日本比现在的中国更为依赖美国市场，在遭受美国贸易施压和制裁之后，日本也不会像中国这样提出反制裁和报复措施，强硬对抗美国单边行为。<strong>在有了日本《广场协议》这样的反面教材之后，中国在中美贸易谈判方面只会更加谨慎。</strong></p>\n<p>以史为鉴，以史资政。</p>\n</div>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>历史总是惊人相似：30多年前的美日贸易和广场协议</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n历史总是惊人相似：30多年前的美日贸易和广场协议\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2018-04-23 11:55 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.huxiu.com/article/241233.html><strong>新浪科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：郑峻，首发于微信公众号“猫叔在硅谷”\n注：中美贸易战已经全面打响，其实，早在三十多年前，美国就曾对日本采取过类似措施，回首过去，你会发现彼时的日本和如今的中国有诸多类似，都对美国市场明显依赖，而美国，也在里根之后，迎来了又一位作风强硬的领导人。以史为鉴，或许就能看得更远。\n历史总是惊人相似，又总有不同之处。\n在很多方面，现在的中美贸易形势都和三十多年前的日美贸易境况存在相似之处。此时的中国和...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/241233.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75be171ae6435597e14c1a22864acb1c?op=imageView2&mode=2&width=256&height=256&quality=70&format=png","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/241233.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"30321","content_text":"作者：郑峻，首发于微信公众号“猫叔在硅谷”\n注：中美贸易战已经全面打响，其实，早在三十多年前，美国就曾对日本采取过类似措施，回首过去，你会发现彼时的日本和如今的中国有诸多类似，都对美国市场明显依赖，而美国，也在里根之后，迎来了又一位作风强硬的领导人。以史为鉴，或许就能看得更远。\n历史总是惊人相似，又总有不同之处。\n在很多方面，现在的中美贸易形势都和三十多年前的日美贸易境况存在相似之处。此时的中国和彼时的日本，都是全球第二大经济体，经济都以出口为导向，出口商品都以物美价廉取胜，都对美国市场存在明显依赖，都对美国存在巨额贸易顺差，占据美国贸易逆差的三分之一以上。\n而美国这边，此时与彼时都是强硬派共和党总统(里根与特朗普)主政，都以单边遏制为外交贸易政策基调，在面对巨额贸易逆差时，都频频祭出超级301条款进行威吓，甚至还有同样的贸易谈判代表。为了迫使日本同意日元升值，美国当时已经在起草法案，准备对日本对美国进口实施全面高关税。\n在这样的背景下，日本在美国的威吓引诱下屈服了，签署了那份著名的《广场协议》，同意日元兑美元大幅升值。随后几年，日本经济出现泡沫，投资大量涌向地产。1991年，日本房地产泡沫破灭，炒房民众大量破产，严重损害了消费能力。日本经济因此陷入了长达十多年的经济衰退，又被称为“迷失的十年”。\n巨额贸易逆差\n先来看看《广场协议》之前的美日贸易情况。上世纪八十年代初，美国经济出现了严重的通货膨胀，美联储被迫实施紧缩货币政策，导致美元大幅升值，严重影响到了出口竞争力，从而带来了巨额贸易逆差。而与此同时，日本处在经济高速增长的良好势头，延续着七十年代8%的经济增速，以汽车为代表的出口行业急剧增长，一跃成为仅次于美国的全球第二大经济体。\n从1980年到1985年，美元累计升值了60%，这直接冲击到了美国出口竞争力。1985年，美国的工业产品出口已经排在位列全球第三，落后于日本和西德。而当时正是日本制造风靡全球的时代，日本的汽车、半导体、摩托车、机械设备不但质量不逊于美国产品，还因为美元升值的原因明显具有价格优势。\n此消彼长，美国在二战之后第一次感受到巨额贸易逆差的压力。五年时间，美国贸易逆差从1980年的364亿美元急剧扩大到1985年的1485亿美元，增长了足足三倍。其中对日贸易逆差是主要原因。1978年美日贸易逆差首次突破100亿美元，到了1985年已经达到了500亿美元，占据了美国贸易逆差的三分之一。1985年美国外债总额1114亿美元，日本占据了其中的一半债权。\n\n丰田和本田为代表的日本汽车在美国市场份额一度达到20%，年出口额达到240亿美元，成为美国最大的进口汽车国家。单是美国汽车业，八十年代初就有6万工人失业。在日本厂商的冲击下，美国传统制造业基地五大湖区的企业出现破产，导致大批工人失业。“铁锈带”(Rust Belt)这个名称正是起源于上世纪七八十年代。\n\n科技巨头英特尔能有今天甚至也要“感谢”日本厂商。英特尔原先的主营业务并不是集成芯片，而是DRAM存储芯片。但到了八十年代初期，在日本厂商的价格打压下，英特尔的存储芯片业务大幅积压，出现了严重的财务危机；当时担任总裁的传奇领导人安迪·格鲁夫(Andy Grove)破釜沉舟地在1983年决定抛弃存储芯片业务，带领英特尔全面转向集成芯片；这才成就了未来的芯片巨人英特尔。\n超级301砸晕日本\n在这样的贸易逆差背景下，美国从上世纪70年代中期开始逐渐转向贸易保护主义，开始立法采取单方面贸易制裁措施，以应对日本带来的经济威胁。我们熟知的“超级301条款”也因此应运而生。\n1974年的美国《贸易法》加入了301条款，授权政府对“不公平”的外国贸易行为实施制裁和报复。\n1984年，美国国会对此进行了修订，把301条款的适用范围扩大到直接投资、服务和知识产权三大领域。301条款并不需要世界贸易组织批准，是美国的单方面行为。\n说到美国的“超级301条款”，日本人的回忆都是眼泪，受伤的都是最具竞争力的产业。在中国人从新闻联播中得知“超级301条款”之前，这个贸易保护大棒打得最多的就是日本，先后挨了近二十次大棒，直至中国经济崛起，才接过了日本这口大黑锅。\n1981年，美国迫使日本主动限制汽车出口；1983年，美国对日本摩托车征收高达45%的重税；1985年，美国迫使日本增加进口牛肉和橙子等美国农产品；1986年，美国迫使日本设置半导体对美出口价格下限，保证不在美国销售廉价芯片，还要日本保证进口半导体的市场份额；1987年，对日本电视和计算机征收100%的关税；1995年，对日本豪华轿车征收100%关税。同年，还有柯达对富士的胶卷大战。\n面对美国的贸易大棒，日本为何如此软弱？除了二战之后日本在军事外交上严重依赖美国之外，日本的出口行业当时严重依赖于美国，而经济又是出口导向型。1984年，日本对美出口额占据了出口总额的35%。而出口对经济增长的贡献一直在30%。相比之下，2017年中国对美出口额为2.91万亿人民币，占出口总额的比例是19%。\n而且，日本当时的出口过于依靠成本优势，集中在家电、纺织、钢铁、汽车等领域，依靠的是此前十年引进的美国技术，缺乏自己的产业核心竞争力。正因为如此，在遭受美国贸易大棒的时候，日本政府首先想到的就是“让步保出口”。在美国的施压下，上世纪八十年代，日本更是多次主动限制自己对美出口。\n广场协议失控\n让日本后悔莫及的《广场协议》正是在这样的贸易背景下签署的。1985年9月22日，美国、日本、英国、法国、德国(当时还是西德)的五大发达国家财政部长和央行行长在美国纽约中央公园南侧的广场酒店进行秘密会晤后签署协议，同意联合干预外汇市场，允许美元对日元等主要货币贬值，以化解美国的巨额贸易赤字。\n\n《广场协议》签订之前，美国已经与日本进行了多次贸易谈判，不仅以全面贸易制裁来威胁日本，更以“日元成为世界货币，日本成为世界大国”为条件吸引日本政府，要求日本允许日元升值，开放国内金融市场，实现利率自由化。对当时成为经济大国渴望国际地位的日本来说，美国的恩威并用起到了足够的效果。准确的说，日本是自愿签署这份协议的。\n\n虽然广场协议涉及到多个工业强国，但影响最大的就是日本。广场协议宣布前，美元兑日元大致在1比250的水平，三个月不到，美元兑日元就急剧下滑到1比200，贬值了20%。一年之后，美元兑日元已经下滑到1比150的水平。\n由于美元贬值速度过猛，1987年上述五国与加拿大又签署了《卢浮宫协议》，意在结束广场协议，阻止美元的持续贬值。但日元的升值势头却无法遏制，1988年美元兑日元达到了1比120的水平，比广场协议之前贬值了一半；到了1990年，甚至达到了1比80的历史高点。\n日元的急剧升值的直接后果就是出口明显下滑。1986年，日本出口总额就从上一年的41.96万亿日元下滑到35.29万亿日元，降幅高达16%。1987年，日本出口总额33.31万亿日元，比广场协议之前到1985年下滑了20%。不过，在广场协议中，日本经济遭受的冲击最重，也要归咎于日本央行的应对失策。\n为了弥补日元升值给出口带来的冲击，日本央行开始实施量化宽松政策，不断下调利率也导致流动资金过剩。此外，由于日元急剧升值，日本持有的美国国债资产出现账面亏损，大量资金开始回流到日本国内市场。日本开始了虚假繁荣的五年时光，在几年之内掏空了自己的经济竞争力。\n由于日元急剧升值，日本企业开始在海外大举收购投资。日本在美国收购房地产占据了日本海外不动产投资的三分之二。1989年日本三菱集团旗下的三菱地所斥资14亿美元收购了纽约的象征洛克菲勒中心14座大楼，索尼斥资34亿美元收购了哥伦比亚电影公司，成为了日本收购热潮的代表之作。钱包变厚的日本游客纷涌出现在全球旅游景点。在国内，日本人也开始大举投资房地产，相信房价永远不会跌，民众为炒房背负了沉重的债务。\n1990年开始，面临金融风险的日本连续五次上调利率，导致房地产泡沫在1992年最终破灭，大量民众因为炒房破产，实体经济陷入硬着陆。整个九十年代，日本经济的增长率始终不足1.5%，远远低于八十年代平均增长率6%。1996年，三菱地所因巨额贷款被迫破产，美国人又以14亿美元买回了洛克菲勒中心；只不过当时的汇率是1989年的一半，美国人实际上只花了当年一半的价格。\n中国不是日本\n关于《广场协议》，外界一直存在着美国设计遏制日本经济增长的阴谋论说法。但严格来说，《广场协议》并不是导致日本经济长期衰退的直接原因。因为签署《广场协议》的其他国家，例如同样对美国存在大额贸易顺差的德国，虽然随后货币也明显升值，但其经济走势并没有遭受日本这样的惨烈后果，也没有出现地产泡沫。\n普遍观点认为，日本政府在《广场协议》前后的一系列政策失误导致了日本经济在随后的几年形势急转直下。日本政府没有有效遏制日元的失控升值势头，更以失策的宽容政策引导经济转型，促使国内出现资产泡沫和炒房热潮，又采取急刹车的方式导致经济硬着陆，才是经济陷入长期衰退的主要罪魁。\n\n值得一提的是，美国现任总统特朗普非常推崇强硬遏制著称的里根总统，后者又被美国民众视为最为成功的总统之一。特朗普在竞选之前就主张要以强硬手段重新进行贸易谈判，尤其是对中国采取高关税措施解决日益扩大的贸易逆差问题。而在上任一年之后，特朗普政府在本月提出了对中国500亿美元的关税，使得中美贸易战一触即发。\n现任美国贸易代表罗伯特·莱特希泽(Robert Lighthizer)，正是33年代表美国与日本直接谈判的贸易官员。作为美国鹰派主要人物，他当时是里根政府的副贸易代表。而诱导日本达成广场协议，迫使日本限制钢铁与汽车出口，大力倡导贸易保护措施，是莱特希泽为美国贸易达成的最知名成就。而现在，他又大力倡导对中国采取强硬贸易立场。\n不过，中国并不是三十年前的日本。日本受到美国的军事保护，在外交政策方面始终为美国马首是瞻。在出口贸易方面，当时的日本比现在的中国更为依赖美国市场，在遭受美国贸易施压和制裁之后，日本也不会像中国这样提出反制裁和报复措施，强硬对抗美国单边行为。在有了日本《广场协议》这样的反面教材之后，中国在中美贸易谈判方面只会更加谨慎。\n以史为鉴，以史资政。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":161931,"gmtCreate":1519642519987,"gmtModify":1704889619174,"author":{"id":"3438250155167248","authorId":"3438250155167248","name":"仗剑天涯皖南子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71ca73a270179dd8f3c32f4d0effa24c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161931","repostId":"8498","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":8498,"gmtCreate":1453710380987,"gmtModify":1704870394390,"author":{"id":"5400656025182","authorId":"5400656025182","name":"vision","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d67e47e5bb77491f2c37ae81c5386950","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"精华帖：美股常用网站汇总","htmlText":"摘要：对于涨幅，跌幅，新股，ETF，恐慌指数等数据进行汇总的网站列表。炒股前必备。 一．查询美股涨幅前20：http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=110&amp;s=ta_topgainers 可用来观察每天涨幅前20的股票，可发现一段时间涨幅最大的股票，追涨杀跌。 例如， 福汇$(FXCM)$在2015年12月28日上涨了41.17%，第二天续涨25%，当时的上涨原因可参看“小心剁手，小心接盘“的文章，但如果当时抓到了上涨趋势，可两天净赚将近70%左右。 (另外，老虎股票行情页面也可以查询当天常见美股/中概股涨幅前十名。) &nbsp; 二．美股跌幅前20： http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=110&amp;s=ta_toplosers 例如,12月31日去哪儿网QUNR爆出的机票事件，当天跌幅为4%收于52.74美元，但到了1月7日时，去哪儿一度跌倒了36.27美元，共跌了33%。 麦克莫兰铜金$(FCX)$由于大宗商品不景气，2015年用一年事件股价由24美元跌倒了4美元，由于股票价格低于10美元，波动幅度很大，经常会领涨领跌。 (另外，老虎股票行情页面也可以查询当天常见美股/中概股跌幅前十名。) &nbsp; 三．评级查询upgrade：http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=110&amp;s=n_upgrades 评级查询downgrade：http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=110&amp;s=n_downgrades 分析师股票评级网站：https://www.tipranks.com/ 技术分析/期货查询：http://www.investing.com/ 网站可查询常见的股票的评级标准，以及通过MACD,布林线，50，200日均线等","listText":"摘要：对于涨幅，跌幅，新股，ETF，恐慌指数等数据进行汇总的网站列表。炒股前必备。 一．查询美股涨幅前20：http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=110&amp;s=ta_topgainers 可用来观察每天涨幅前20的股票，可发现一段时间涨幅最大的股票，追涨杀跌。 例如， 福汇$(FXCM)$在2015年12月28日上涨了41.17%，第二天续涨25%，当时的上涨原因可参看“小心剁手，小心接盘“的文章，但如果当时抓到了上涨趋势，可两天净赚将近70%左右。 (另外，老虎股票行情页面也可以查询当天常见美股/中概股涨幅前十名。) &nbsp; 二．美股跌幅前20： http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=110&amp;s=ta_toplosers 例如,12月31日去哪儿网QUNR爆出的机票事件，当天跌幅为4%收于52.74美元，但到了1月7日时，去哪儿一度跌倒了36.27美元，共跌了33%。 麦克莫兰铜金$(FCX)$由于大宗商品不景气，2015年用一年事件股价由24美元跌倒了4美元，由于股票价格低于10美元，波动幅度很大，经常会领涨领跌。 (另外，老虎股票行情页面也可以查询当天常见美股/中概股跌幅前十名。) &nbsp; 三．评级查询upgrade：http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=110&amp;s=n_upgrades 评级查询downgrade：http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=110&amp;s=n_downgrades 分析师股票评级网站：https://www.tipranks.com/ 技术分析/期货查询：http://www.investing.com/ 网站可查询常见的股票的评级标准，以及通过MACD,布林线，50，200日均线等","text":"摘要：对于涨幅，跌幅，新股，ETF，恐慌指数等数据进行汇总的网站列表。炒股前必备。 一．查询美股涨幅前20：http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=110&s=ta_topgainers 可用来观察每天涨幅前20的股票，可发现一段时间涨幅最大的股票，追涨杀跌。 例如， 福汇$(FXCM)$在2015年12月28日上涨了41.17%，第二天续涨25%，当时的上涨原因可参看“小心剁手，小心接盘“的文章，但如果当时抓到了上涨趋势，可两天净赚将近70%左右。 (另外，老虎股票行情页面也可以查询当天常见美股/中概股涨幅前十名。) 二．美股跌幅前20： http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=110&s=ta_toplosers 例如,12月31日去哪儿网QUNR爆出的机票事件，当天跌幅为4%收于52.74美元，但到了1月7日时，去哪儿一度跌倒了36.27美元，共跌了33%。 麦克莫兰铜金$(FCX)$由于大宗商品不景气，2015年用一年事件股价由24美元跌倒了4美元，由于股票价格低于10美元，波动幅度很大，经常会领涨领跌。 (另外，老虎股票行情页面也可以查询当天常见美股/中概股跌幅前十名。) 三．评级查询upgrade：http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=110&s=n_upgrades 评级查询downgrade：http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=110&s=n_downgrades 分析师股票评级网站：https://www.tipranks.com/ 技术分析/期货查询：http://www.investing.com/ 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