一度过了么的个人主页 - 老虎社区

一度过了么

一度过了么

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IP属地：天津

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一度过了么

2022-03-21

明星？为什么成了明星虎友？

一度过了么

2021-09-10

好玩好玩

@话题虎:北京环球影城即将开业！旅游业将迎来大爆发？

一度过了么

2021-09-10

我的计划是：作空原油

@Buy_Sell:🚀【9月9日】投行大跌警告，股指中概齐跌！今天有什么操作？

一度过了么

2020-10-12

$SP500指数2012(ES2012)$ 晒晒

一度过了么

2020-09-30

$SP500指数2012(ES2012)$ 短空

一度过了么

2020-09-25

一群强D

TikTok 交易疑云：“卖身一半”，到底还姓不姓张？

一度过了么

2020-06-12

$道琼斯指数2009(YM2009)$ 这鬼终于要跌了

一度过了么

2020-05-22

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$早些做空多好

一度过了么

2020-05-20

我们什么时候也能这样？

纳斯达克回应瑞幸‘摘牌’事件：所有公司将遵循统一规则

一度过了么

2020-05-20

我们股市能这样就好了

抱歉，原内容已删除

一度过了么

2020-05-20

中国股市能这样就好了

抱歉，原内容已删除

一度过了么

2020-05-20

乱

市场不为所动！鲍威尔和努钦到底说了啥？

一度过了么

2020-05-19

美股进入博傻阶段

一度过了么

2020-05-18

老虎止损单有个严重问题，就是正仓平后，止损单不会自动撤单，这可是大坑，同学不要掉抗里啊

一度过了么

2020-05-18

$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$ 要让其灭亡，让它先疯狂

一度过了么

2020-05-17

$SP500指数2006(ES2006)$ 这鬼回光返照的很厉害，难道会起死回生？

一度过了么

2020-05-15

$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$ 这鬼怎么就死扛着不跌

一度过了么

2020-05-14

$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$ 是不是要进入下跌趋势了？

一度过了么

2020-05-13

$WTI原油2007(CL2007)$ 按1小时周期做空

一度过了么

2020-05-08

$WTI原油2007(CL2007)$ 昨晚挂了个平仓和止损单，结果杯具了，止损成交后，平仓单不自动撒单。真不如国内期货交易系统合理

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 遭约谈，分别跌近7%及3%，两部委约谈腾讯网易等游戏企业和平台。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">$百度集团-SW(09888)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a> 均跌超3%；恒大概念股继续大跌，电力股个别弱势，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00916\">$龙源电力(00916)$</a> 低开4%，昨日创历史新高；海通证券遭立案调查，低开4.5%；教育股、药品股、濠赌股多数上涨，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01769\">$思考乐教育(01769)$</a> 涨2.45%，","text":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 9月9日讯，港股三大指数大幅低开，恒指跌0.93%报26076点，国指跌1.16%报9336点，恒生科技指数跌2.02%报6732点。 盘面上，隔夜热门中概股集体下挫，大型科技股全线低开，$网易-S(09999)$ 、$腾讯控股(00700)$ 遭约谈，分别跌近7%及3%，两部委约谈腾讯网易等游戏企业和平台。$百度集团-SW(09888)$ 、$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 、$快手-W(01024)$ 均跌超3%；恒大概念股继续大跌，电力股个别弱势，$龙源电力(00916)$ 低开4%，昨日创历史新高；海通证券遭立案调查，低开4.5%；教育股、药品股、濠赌股多数上涨，$思考乐教育(01769)$ 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短空","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/808d1e075717f2402b2b235678f7c4bd","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/977398386","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":974890867,"gmtCreate":1600984163959,"gmtModify":1703823250765,"author":{"id":"3435957463939049","authorId":"3435957463939049","name":"一度过了么","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71f2c80b9f5ac336b495eda7cb89b3a","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3435957463939049","authorIdStr":"3435957463939049"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"一群强D","listText":"一群强D","text":"一群强D","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/974890867","repostId":"1198771903","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198771903","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1600956055,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198771903?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-09-24 22:00","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"TikTok 交易疑云：“卖身一半”，到底还姓不姓张？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198771903","media":"亿邦动力网","summary":"牌桌上的人换了一波，TikTok 命运仍存变数。字节跳动、甲骨文和沃尔玛，三大知名巨头坐在牌桌前的一纸协议，为TikTok一个多月来跌宕起伏的命运，画下了一个看似完满的句号。但持续搅起风波的美国总统特","content":"<blockquote><b>牌桌上的人换了一波，TikTok 命运仍存变数。</b></blockquote><p>字节跳动、甲骨文和沃尔玛，三大知名巨头坐在牌桌前的一纸协议，为TikTok一个多月来跌宕起伏的命运，画下了一个看似完满的句号。</p><p>但持续搅起风波的美国总统特朗普，为这笔交易的前景埋下了一颗“不定时炸弹”。</p><p>9月19日，交易达成当天，特朗普对此表示“原则上”同意。但短短一天后，他迅速反口声称，如果字节跳动还继续保留对TikTok的任何控制权，美国政府将拒绝批准这一方案。TikTok开放美国源代码检查权限给甲骨文的条款，也引起了国内关于中国公司信息安全的担忧。</p><p>迄今为止，这桩今年科技圈最瞩目的交易案，仍未迎来靴子落地的时刻。</p><p>从8月初特朗普给字节跳动设下45天的最后通牒至今，TikTok的命运数次出现转折。从 “被迫出售”、众人竞购，到最被看好的微软意外出局，再到甲骨文和沃尔玛成为接盘方，这宗交易乱局，涉及到科技巨头间极为复杂的利益计算。</p><p>问题的关键点在于，“卖身一半”的TikTok，到底还姓不姓张？</p><p><b>一、美国人控股52%张一鸣失去控制权？</b></p><p>9月19日，TikTok、甲骨文和沃尔玛达成了一份 “形成原则性共识”的合作协议，并各自对外发表了声明。</p><p>协议的大致内容为，三家方成立总部位于美国的实体公司TikTok Global，甲骨文和沃尔玛分别出资75亿和45亿美元，共同持股20%。甲骨文负责托管美国用户数据，沃尔玛则提供电商、履约、付款等服务，新公司将于一年内在美上市。</p><p>协议落定，不少人为字节跳动一个半月艰难谈判得出的方案感到欣慰。毕竟，比起彻底“卖身”或关闭，目前的方案明显保住了TikTok的美国业务。</p><p>但争议也和分歧随之出现，尤其是涉及到TikTok股份分配的问题。</p><p>甲骨文发表声明称，TikTok Global将“由美国投资者多数控股”。《华尔街日报》据此分析称，上市后新公司的多数股权将不在中国公司手中。21日，字节跳动针对相关传言作出澄清，称Pre-IPO融资后，TikTok Global将成为“字节跳动持股80%的控股子公司“。同日，甲骨文又对美媒提到，TikTok Global成立后会融资，新公司的股票将分配给现有股东（大多数是美国人），字节跳动将失去&nbsp;“所有权”。</p><p>彭博援引知情人士说法称，包括红杉在内的美国投资者控制着字节跳动40％的股份。这意味着，从理论上讲，他们也将拥有字节跳动所持TikTok Global股份的40％，再加上甲骨文和沃尔玛共同持股的20％，美国投资者的持股比例将超过一半（80%*40%+20%=52%）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/731f4efb2f2172481ce39b98a5a1fee1\" tg-width=\"712\" tg-height=\"426\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db82b269ae3363bf9b553e8696ad4399\" tg-width=\"721\" tg-height=\"417\"></p><p>股权穿透后，美国投资者对TikTok Global的持股比例将超过50%</p><p>数据来源：CNBC、公司官方声明 制图：亿邦</p><p>而站在字节跳动的角度，之所以有“持股80%”的说法，是因为字节跳动没有将美国投资者与其他股东分开。其他股东包括字节跳动的创始人张一鸣，以及除美国和中国以外的其他国际投资者。</p><p><b>52%的股份攥在美国投资者手里，是不是意味着张一鸣失去了对TikTok Global的控制权？</b></p><p>答案也不尽然。</p><p>一方面，这些股份分散在不同的美国投资者手中，除了新接盘的甲骨文和沃尔玛，还包括红杉资本、泛大西洋投资集团、Coatue Management、老虎全球管理资金等美资风投机构。他们当中不少是财务投资，且手中的股份不一定比张一鸣多。</p><p>另一方面，透镜公司研究创始人况玉清告诉亿邦，美国允许同股不同权，股权比例不代表投票权比例，由于现在还看不到股权结构细节，所以对公司整体控制权方面的影响还不太好判断。</p><p>与持股比例相比，TikTok Global未来到底还姓不姓张，更多地取决于其董事会构成。</p><p>根据目前的提议，TikTok Global董事会将有五个席位，其中四个由美国人担任。沃尔玛在声明中称，公司CEO董明伦将成为董事。另据彭博社和华尔街日报消息，泛大西洋投资集团CEO福特、红杉全球管理合伙人莱昂内、海纳国际集团创始人丹特希克拟各占一席，张一鸣将是第五名董事会成员，但该提议仍有可能改变。</p><p>一个董事会席位意味着，张一鸣可以影响到TikTok Global未来的公司治理及策略推行。如果能争取到诸如一票否决权之类的权益，那么他对公司的控制权会更高。</p><p>除此之外，判定TikTok归属的一个重要参考，是算法和技术的归属。算法被认为是TikTok最有价值的资产，也是字节跳动发展的命脉。</p><p>从字节跳动周一发布的澄清声明来看，目前的方案不涉及任何算法和技术转让。英国《金融时报》评论称，在这场谈判中，字节跳动显然是赢家，它既避免了美国的禁令，同时也保留了对 TikTok及其算法的控制权。</p><p>但令外界担忧的是，甲骨文对TikTok美国的源代码拥有“安全检查”的权限。</p><p>知情人士告诉美国科技媒体The Information，除了源代码，字节跳动对TikTok Global代码的任何更新都将受到甲骨文的检查，甲骨文或将用6个月的时间重建这款应用程序。</p><p>这对字节跳动而言，是一件风险很高的事。原因在于，TikTok与字节旗下其他软件共享部分算法，这些算法涉及推荐和审核内容、压缩视频数据、寻找目标广告等。《中国日报》9月23日发表的社论文章指出，由于TikTok的源代码和抖音同源，此举意味着美方将能够洞悉抖音的核心技术，这是一项 “不合理和不公平的商业交易”。</p><p>9月23日，美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）援引两名知情人士说法称，TikTok交易的谈判代表正争取在本周末前结束和美监管机构的协商，一些细节仍需要“敲定”，包括甲骨文是否可以更改字节跳动的TikTok安全性代码。</p><p><b>二、字节跳动能否成为最终赢家？</b></p><p>围绕TikTok Global的谈判仍在继续，但牌桌上的人早已换了一波。</p><p>今年8月初，特朗普将枪口对准TikTok，限其在45天内出售美国业务，否则就会被关闭。此后几周的大部分时间里，微软都被视为最有希望和最合适的买家。微软CEO纳德拉和创始人比尔·盖茨很早就公开表示，正在洽谈收购TikTok在美及其他三国的业务。</p><p>然而，据媒体报道，微软计划出价约300亿美元，处于TikTok此前500亿美元估值的下位。早在8月上旬，就有知情人士对《南华早报》作出预判，微软收购TikTok的可能性不高于20%，因为这家美国软件巨头的最初出价，无异于“趁火打劫“。随着最后期限的临近，微软达成协议的前景变得渺茫。</p><p>此外，《华尔街日报》援引消息人士称，微软倾向于收购TikTok，而甲骨文则愿意成为少数股权投资者，此前还与美国官方有过合作。因此，字节跳动及其投资者认为选择甲骨文更符合自身利益。</p><p>除了甲骨文，另一个看起来“违和”的竞购者沃尔玛，也留在了牌桌上。</p><p>沃尔玛先是与微软合作，向TikTok伸出橄榄枝。9月13日微软出局后，沃尔玛再次向字节暗示，无论买家是谁，他们都仍希望参与交易。最终，这家百年零售巨头与甲骨文组队，以可能高达600亿美元的估值共同拿到了TikTok Global 20%股份，成功上船。</p><p>甲骨文和沃尔玛对这场交易的需求不一。甲骨文将TikTok Global视为旗下云业务的一个大客户，期望借此在亚马逊AWS和微软Azure主导的公有云市场中，提升自己的竞争力。沃尔玛则在声明中强调，TikTok庞大的用户群对其获客和拓展电商市场大有裨益。此外，沃尔玛也对管理TikTok的业务表现出了更多兴趣，拿到一个董事会席位，并将为TikTok提供电商、支付等服务。</p><p>站在字节跳动的角度，甲骨文和沃尔玛给出了比微软更好的出价，TikTok的估值可能比此前抬高了20%。它们也并不觊觎TikTok的全面控制权，这无疑是最能打动张一鸣的一点。</p><p>到目前为止，这场看似双赢的交易已接近尾声，但在关键的股权分配和核心算法归属问题上仍存变数。</p><p>特朗普宣称，TikTok Global公开上市后，甲骨文将买下其剩余股权，并实现“完全控制”，新公司将与字节跳动“没有任何关系”。如若不然，美国政府将拒绝批准这一交易。如果特朗普将 “完全控制权“作为底线，那么张一鸣最终有可能成为美国国务卿迈克·蓬佩奥口中的“被动股东”：“被动股东没有进入公司的渠道，没有决策权，没有能力窥探他们在做什么。“</p><p>双方围绕算法的谈判，似乎也已有了新的协议版本。9月24日，字节跳动表示，已向北京市商务局提交了许可申请，或涉及技术出口相关条款。笼罩在TikTok交易上空的复杂疑团，最快将在本周末之前解开。</p><p>张一鸣 “不放弃探索任何可能性”的最终结果会是什么？全世界都在等待他的答案。</p>","source":"ybdlw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TikTok 交易疑云：“卖身一半”，到底还姓不姓张？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTikTok 交易疑云：“卖身一半”，到底还姓不姓张？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-09-24 22:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZI4n_J4QaNdsLyvURA2i2Q><strong>亿邦动力网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>牌桌上的人换了一波，TikTok 命运仍存变数。字节跳动、甲骨文和沃尔玛，三大知名巨头坐在牌桌前的一纸协议，为TikTok一个多月来跌宕起伏的命运，画下了一个看似完满的句号。但持续搅起风波的美国总统特朗普，为这笔交易的前景埋下了一颗“不定时炸弹”。9月19日，交易达成当天，特朗普对此表示“原则上”同意。但短短一天后，他迅速反口声称，如果字节跳动还继续保留对TikTok的任何控制权，美国政府将拒绝...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZI4n_J4QaNdsLyvURA2i2Q\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0188ad1fb2be5e0037b4707788b03a1c","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZI4n_J4QaNdsLyvURA2i2Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198771903","content_text":"牌桌上的人换了一波，TikTok 命运仍存变数。字节跳动、甲骨文和沃尔玛，三大知名巨头坐在牌桌前的一纸协议，为TikTok一个多月来跌宕起伏的命运，画下了一个看似完满的句号。但持续搅起风波的美国总统特朗普，为这笔交易的前景埋下了一颗“不定时炸弹”。9月19日，交易达成当天，特朗普对此表示“原则上”同意。但短短一天后，他迅速反口声称，如果字节跳动还继续保留对TikTok的任何控制权，美国政府将拒绝批准这一方案。TikTok开放美国源代码检查权限给甲骨文的条款，也引起了国内关于中国公司信息安全的担忧。迄今为止，这桩今年科技圈最瞩目的交易案，仍未迎来靴子落地的时刻。从8月初特朗普给字节跳动设下45天的最后通牒至今，TikTok的命运数次出现转折。从 “被迫出售”、众人竞购，到最被看好的微软意外出局，再到甲骨文和沃尔玛成为接盘方，这宗交易乱局，涉及到科技巨头间极为复杂的利益计算。问题的关键点在于，“卖身一半”的TikTok，到底还姓不姓张？一、美国人控股52%张一鸣失去控制权？9月19日，TikTok、甲骨文和沃尔玛达成了一份 “形成原则性共识”的合作协议，并各自对外发表了声明。协议的大致内容为，三家方成立总部位于美国的实体公司TikTok Global，甲骨文和沃尔玛分别出资75亿和45亿美元，共同持股20%。甲骨文负责托管美国用户数据，沃尔玛则提供电商、履约、付款等服务，新公司将于一年内在美上市。协议落定，不少人为字节跳动一个半月艰难谈判得出的方案感到欣慰。毕竟，比起彻底“卖身”或关闭，目前的方案明显保住了TikTok的美国业务。但争议也和分歧随之出现，尤其是涉及到TikTok股份分配的问题。甲骨文发表声明称，TikTok Global将“由美国投资者多数控股”。《华尔街日报》据此分析称，上市后新公司的多数股权将不在中国公司手中。21日，字节跳动针对相关传言作出澄清，称Pre-IPO融资后，TikTok Global将成为“字节跳动持股80%的控股子公司“。同日，甲骨文又对美媒提到，TikTok Global成立后会融资，新公司的股票将分配给现有股东（大多数是美国人），字节跳动将失去 “所有权”。彭博援引知情人士说法称，包括红杉在内的美国投资者控制着字节跳动40％的股份。这意味着，从理论上讲，他们也将拥有字节跳动所持TikTok Global股份的40％，再加上甲骨文和沃尔玛共同持股的20％，美国投资者的持股比例将超过一半（80%*40%+20%=52%）。股权穿透后，美国投资者对TikTok Global的持股比例将超过50%数据来源：CNBC、公司官方声明 制图：亿邦而站在字节跳动的角度，之所以有“持股80%”的说法，是因为字节跳动没有将美国投资者与其他股东分开。其他股东包括字节跳动的创始人张一鸣，以及除美国和中国以外的其他国际投资者。52%的股份攥在美国投资者手里，是不是意味着张一鸣失去了对TikTok Global的控制权？答案也不尽然。一方面，这些股份分散在不同的美国投资者手中，除了新接盘的甲骨文和沃尔玛，还包括红杉资本、泛大西洋投资集团、Coatue Management、老虎全球管理资金等美资风投机构。他们当中不少是财务投资，且手中的股份不一定比张一鸣多。另一方面，透镜公司研究创始人况玉清告诉亿邦，美国允许同股不同权，股权比例不代表投票权比例，由于现在还看不到股权结构细节，所以对公司整体控制权方面的影响还不太好判断。与持股比例相比，TikTok Global未来到底还姓不姓张，更多地取决于其董事会构成。根据目前的提议，TikTok Global董事会将有五个席位，其中四个由美国人担任。沃尔玛在声明中称，公司CEO董明伦将成为董事。另据彭博社和华尔街日报消息，泛大西洋投资集团CEO福特、红杉全球管理合伙人莱昂内、海纳国际集团创始人丹特希克拟各占一席，张一鸣将是第五名董事会成员，但该提议仍有可能改变。一个董事会席位意味着，张一鸣可以影响到TikTok Global未来的公司治理及策略推行。如果能争取到诸如一票否决权之类的权益，那么他对公司的控制权会更高。除此之外，判定TikTok归属的一个重要参考，是算法和技术的归属。算法被认为是TikTok最有价值的资产，也是字节跳动发展的命脉。从字节跳动周一发布的澄清声明来看，目前的方案不涉及任何算法和技术转让。英国《金融时报》评论称，在这场谈判中，字节跳动显然是赢家，它既避免了美国的禁令，同时也保留了对 TikTok及其算法的控制权。但令外界担忧的是，甲骨文对TikTok美国的源代码拥有“安全检查”的权限。知情人士告诉美国科技媒体The Information，除了源代码，字节跳动对TikTok Global代码的任何更新都将受到甲骨文的检查，甲骨文或将用6个月的时间重建这款应用程序。这对字节跳动而言，是一件风险很高的事。原因在于，TikTok与字节旗下其他软件共享部分算法，这些算法涉及推荐和审核内容、压缩视频数据、寻找目标广告等。《中国日报》9月23日发表的社论文章指出，由于TikTok的源代码和抖音同源，此举意味着美方将能够洞悉抖音的核心技术，这是一项 “不合理和不公平的商业交易”。9月23日，美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）援引两名知情人士说法称，TikTok交易的谈判代表正争取在本周末前结束和美监管机构的协商，一些细节仍需要“敲定”，包括甲骨文是否可以更改字节跳动的TikTok安全性代码。二、字节跳动能否成为最终赢家？围绕TikTok Global的谈判仍在继续，但牌桌上的人早已换了一波。今年8月初，特朗普将枪口对准TikTok，限其在45天内出售美国业务，否则就会被关闭。此后几周的大部分时间里，微软都被视为最有希望和最合适的买家。微软CEO纳德拉和创始人比尔·盖茨很早就公开表示，正在洽谈收购TikTok在美及其他三国的业务。然而，据媒体报道，微软计划出价约300亿美元，处于TikTok此前500亿美元估值的下位。早在8月上旬，就有知情人士对《南华早报》作出预判，微软收购TikTok的可能性不高于20%，因为这家美国软件巨头的最初出价，无异于“趁火打劫“。随着最后期限的临近，微软达成协议的前景变得渺茫。此外，《华尔街日报》援引消息人士称，微软倾向于收购TikTok，而甲骨文则愿意成为少数股权投资者，此前还与美国官方有过合作。因此，字节跳动及其投资者认为选择甲骨文更符合自身利益。除了甲骨文，另一个看起来“违和”的竞购者沃尔玛，也留在了牌桌上。沃尔玛先是与微软合作，向TikTok伸出橄榄枝。9月13日微软出局后，沃尔玛再次向字节暗示，无论买家是谁，他们都仍希望参与交易。最终，这家百年零售巨头与甲骨文组队，以可能高达600亿美元的估值共同拿到了TikTok Global 20%股份，成功上船。甲骨文和沃尔玛对这场交易的需求不一。甲骨文将TikTok Global视为旗下云业务的一个大客户，期望借此在亚马逊AWS和微软Azure主导的公有云市场中，提升自己的竞争力。沃尔玛则在声明中强调，TikTok庞大的用户群对其获客和拓展电商市场大有裨益。此外，沃尔玛也对管理TikTok的业务表现出了更多兴趣，拿到一个董事会席位，并将为TikTok提供电商、支付等服务。站在字节跳动的角度，甲骨文和沃尔玛给出了比微软更好的出价，TikTok的估值可能比此前抬高了20%。它们也并不觊觎TikTok的全面控制权，这无疑是最能打动张一鸣的一点。到目前为止，这场看似双赢的交易已接近尾声，但在关键的股权分配和核心算法归属问题上仍存变数。特朗普宣称，TikTok Global公开上市后，甲骨文将买下其剩余股权，并实现“完全控制”，新公司将与字节跳动“没有任何关系”。如若不然，美国政府将拒绝批准这一交易。如果特朗普将 “完全控制权“作为底线，那么张一鸣最终有可能成为美国国务卿迈克·蓬佩奥口中的“被动股东”：“被动股东没有进入公司的渠道，没有决策权，没有能力窥探他们在做什么。“双方围绕算法的谈判，似乎也已有了新的协议版本。9月24日，字节跳动表示，已向北京市商务局提交了许可申请，或涉及技术出口相关条款。笼罩在TikTok交易上空的复杂疑团，最快将在本周末之前解开。张一鸣 “不放弃探索任何可能性”的最终结果会是什么？全世界都在等待他的答案。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":952805450,"gmtCreate":1591915421570,"gmtModify":1704197585339,"author":{"id":"3435957463939049","authorId":"3435957463939049","name":"一度过了么","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71f2c80b9f5ac336b495eda7cb89b3a","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3435957463939049","authorIdStr":"3435957463939049"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/YM2009\">$道琼斯指数2009(YM2009)$ &nbsp;</a>这鬼终于要跌了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/YM2009\">$道琼斯指数2009(YM2009)$ &nbsp;</a>这鬼终于要跌了","text":"$道琼斯指数2009(YM2009)$ 这鬼终于要跌了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/952805450","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1942,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":953959703,"gmtCreate":1590102568202,"gmtModify":1704191830334,"author":{"id":"3435957463939049","authorId":"3435957463939049","name":"一度过了么","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71f2c80b9f5ac336b495eda7cb89b3a","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3435957463939049","authorIdStr":"3435957463939049"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$</a>早些做空多好","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$</a>早些做空多好","text":"$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$早些做空多好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/953959703","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":959225037,"gmtCreate":1589932254929,"gmtModify":1704191151377,"author":{"id":"3435957463939049","authorId":"3435957463939049","name":"一度过了么","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71f2c80b9f5ac336b495eda7cb89b3a","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3435957463939049","authorIdStr":"3435957463939049"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我们什么时候也能这样？","listText":"我们什么时候也能这样？","text":"我们什么时候也能这样？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/959225037","repostId":"1108595096","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108595096","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1589904702,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108595096?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-05-20 00:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"纳斯达克回应瑞幸‘摘牌’事件：所有公司将遵循统一规则","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108595096","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"纳斯达克向第一财经表示，无法就个股进行评论，但所有公司都将遵循交易所的统一规则。根据纳斯达克上市中心网站的信息显示，上市公司必须在收到摘牌通知的7个自然日内提出召开听证会的请求，公司可以选择口头或书面","content":"<p><span>纳斯达克向第一财经表示，无法就个股进行评论，但所有公司都将遵循交易所的统一规则。</span></p><p><span>根据纳斯达克上市中心网站的信息显示，上市公司必须在收到摘牌通知的7个自然日内提出召开听证会的请求，公司可以选择口头或书面形式的听证会，听证会费用为10000美元。听证会上，企业约有50分钟时间进行陈述，听证委员会通常在听证会后的30天内公布书面决定，在此之前上述公司可以继续维持上市。</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>纳斯达克回应瑞幸‘摘牌’事件：所有公司将遵循统一规则</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n纳斯达克回应瑞幸‘摘牌’事件：所有公司将遵循统一规则\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-05-20 00:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><span>纳斯达克向第一财经表示，无法就个股进行评论，但所有公司都将遵循交易所的统一规则。</span></p><p><span>根据纳斯达克上市中心网站的信息显示，上市公司必须在收到摘牌通知的7个自然日内提出召开听证会的请求，公司可以选择口头或书面形式的听证会，听证会费用为10000美元。听证会上，企业约有50分钟时间进行陈述，听证委员会通常在听证会后的30天内公布书面决定，在此之前上述公司可以继续维持上市。</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d12f820102df1859c1d25e4011ee104","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108595096","content_text":"纳斯达克向第一财经表示，无法就个股进行评论，但所有公司都将遵循交易所的统一规则。根据纳斯达克上市中心网站的信息显示，上市公司必须在收到摘牌通知的7个自然日内提出召开听证会的请求，公司可以选择口头或书面形式的听证会，听证会费用为10000美元。听证会上，企业约有50分钟时间进行陈述，听证委员会通常在听证会后的30天内公布书面决定，在此之前上述公司可以继续维持上市。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3278,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":959222757,"gmtCreate":1589932236579,"gmtModify":1704191151205,"author":{"id":"3435957463939049","authorId":"3435957463939049","name":"一度过了么","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71f2c80b9f5ac336b495eda7cb89b3a","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3435957463939049","authorIdStr":"3435957463939049"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我们股市能这样就好了","listText":"我们股市能这样就好了","text":"我们股市能这样就好了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/959222757","repostId":"2036111355","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2686,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":959222529,"gmtCreate":1589932213961,"gmtModify":1704191150859,"author":{"id":"3435957463939049","authorId":"3435957463939049","name":"一度过了么","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71f2c80b9f5ac336b495eda7cb89b3a","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3435957463939049","authorIdStr":"3435957463939049"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"中国股市能这样就好了","listText":"中国股市能这样就好了","text":"中国股市能这样就好了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/959222529","repostId":"2036111355","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":959222662,"gmtCreate":1589932162356,"gmtModify":1704191150342,"author":{"id":"3435957463939049","authorId":"3435957463939049","name":"一度过了么","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71f2c80b9f5ac336b495eda7cb89b3a","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3435957463939049","authorIdStr":"3435957463939049"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"乱","listText":"乱","text":"乱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/959222662","repostId":"1131338390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131338390","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1589900355,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131338390?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-05-19 22:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场不为所动！鲍威尔和努钦到底说了啥？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131338390","media":"金十数据 ","summary":"相关阅读：今晚鲍威尔会说什么？讲稿已提前公布北京时间周二22:00，美联储主席鲍威尔和美国财长努钦通过视频出席参议院金融委员会听证会，向国会通报应对新冠疫情的经济措施。在鲍威尔和努钦发言期间，现货黄金","content":"<p><b>相关阅读：</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2036619334\" target=\"_blank\"><b>今晚鲍威尔会说什么？讲稿已提前公布</b></a></p><p><span>北京时间周二22:00，美联储主席鲍威尔和美国财长努钦通过视频出席参议院金融委员会听证会，向国会通报应对新冠疫情的经济措施。</span></p><p><span>在鲍威尔和努钦发言期间，</span>现货黄金<span>短线回升近5美元，美股三大指数短线走高后跌幅再次扩大，其他市场并无明显异动。</span></p><p><b><span>努钦发言重点：预计经济将从第三季度开始好转</span></b></p><p><b>美国财长努钦已经在参议院金融委员会作证词时指出，预计在第二季度将继续看到大量的失业以及其它负面经济指标。</b>不过随着商业活动重启，<b>预计美国经济将在第三和第四季度改善。</b>此外，努钦还表示财政部将从CARES ACT中保留2590亿美元作为储备，以在需要时创建或扩大信贷项目。</p><p>努钦表示，以安全的方式让人们重返工作很重要。美国有信心将渡过疫情危机，而且相信在疫情过去之后人们对经济的信心会变得更强。</p><p>在纾困资金分配方面，努钦强调财政部绝对乐于承担风险和资本损失，且希望在分配所有资金之前更好地了解哪些信贷安排需要更多资金。</p><p>努钦希望两党对8周的期限进行技术性修正，以确保薪资保护计划有更大的灵活性。目前市场对50年、100年国债的需求不足，努钦打算发行大量短期证券，然后将市场的借款转向期限更长的债券。</p><p>努钦预计，就业人数在变得更好之前会变得更糟。6月将是非常困难的时期，首要目标是让人们有工作。<span>如果有人不接受提供的工作，他们应该向当地政府报告，这样他们就不能领取失业福利了。</span></p><p><span>努钦称，</span>相信航空公司将遵守救援协议，将研究支持就业的所有选项，应该“认真考虑”减少中产阶级家庭的税收。</p><p><b><span>鲍威尔发言重点：美联储目前的资产负债表规模并未引发金融稳定或通胀担忧</span></b></p><p>美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储致力于支持经济，正在寻找办法容纳更多的市政借贷，美联储尤其关注向人口相对较少的州提供贷款。低收入的服务业工人在疫情大流行中受到打击，持续的失业问题会给经济造成多年的压力，美国面临记忆中最大的经济冲击，现在的问题是政府的应对措施是否足以显现出效果。</p><p>美联储通过定期资产抵押证券贷款工具（TALF）工具承担极低的信贷风险。美联储致力于披露所有计划借款人，美联储便利机制提供的流动性仍在。到目前为止美联储发放的贷款“相当有限”，美联储将根据需要调整和改变贷款安排。</p><p>美联储和国会可能需要更多地帮助经济。除了主体街计划，其他的项目在5月底之前都已经启动了，美联储对其金融工具产生了浓厚的兴趣，重要的是要考虑病毒对国家和地方政府的影响。任何使人们免于破产的事情都应该由国会考虑。</p><p>美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储的计划是为支持市场而设计的，不想用美联储的计划来取代市场。在疫情大流行期间，银行表现强劲，能够提供贷款，支持在当前危机期间放松银行规则。</p><p><span>鲍威尔介绍称，</span>美联储的资产负债表将随着贷款工具的增长而增长，预计随着时间发展，美联储的资产负债表将萎缩。重要的是资产负债表的规模相对于美国经济的规模，美联储目前的资产负债表规模并未引发金融稳定或通胀担忧。</p><p>鲍威尔还表示，资产负债表的规模是有限的，额外支持措施的规模取决于经济发展道路。讨论财政政策的时间和设计不是美联储的职责，需要退后一步，看看是否提供了足够的援助。国会和美联储必须扪心自问，他们所做的是否足以支撑未来几个月的经济。</p><p><b><span>鲍威尔讲稿已提前公布，聚焦三大重点</span></b></p><p>另一方面，虽然演讲稿已提前公布，但鲍威尔的一举一动依然受到市场人士的广泛关注。早在鲍威尔的演讲稿提前公布之时，金十就为大家进行了详细报道。从这份演讲稿来看，鲍威尔的发言主要聚焦三大主题。</p><p><b>第一，经济前景预测。</b></p><blockquote>鲍威尔指出，本季度经济数据显示，美国经济产出大幅下降，失业率同样大幅上升。此外，疫情还给一些重要的金融市场造成了巨大的压力，并削弱了经济中的信贷流动。</blockquote><p><b>第二，美联储政策工具的使用情况。</b></p><blockquote>鲍威尔强调，美联储一直秉持着即促进美国人民的最大就业和物价稳定，以及促进金融体系稳定的理念，通过积极的货币政策行动履行自己的使命。截至目前，美联储已经通过通过公开市场操作恢复市场运行，采取行动改善短期融资市场流动性状况，与财政部协作建立新项目以更直接地促进信贷流向家庭、企业、州和地方政府，以及采取措施允许和鼓励银行利用过去10年积累的大量资本和流动性等四方面的措施稳定经济。</blockquote><p><b>第三，监管及其他改革意见。</b></p><blockquote>鲍威尔认为，在已经使用以及其他美联储从未使用过的工具的发展中，公众的意见起到了关键作用。他强调，当经济和金融状况改善时，美联储将把这些工具放回工具箱。</blockquote><p>在接受议员提问时，鲍威尔表示正在寻找办法容纳更多的市政借贷，而且美联储尤其关注向人口相对较少的州提供贷款。</p><p>针对鲍威尔的发言，美国参议院少数党（民主党）领袖舒默表示：</p><blockquote>“鲍威尔的言论应该会让共和党人感到震惊，从而采取救援行动。”</blockquote><p><b><span>美联储和财政部分别还有哪些招数？</span></b></p><p>鲍威尔在此前的讲话中表示，美联储的政策工具尚未耗尽，并明确对负利率说不。此外，<b>他也再次强调，美联储和国会可能需要更多地帮助经济。</b>有鉴于此，外界十分关心，若解除封锁后经济依然无法复苏，美联储、政府和国会还将使出什么新招数？</p><p><b>据彭博报道，美联储正在计划推出4项全新借贷工具，包括直接从银行处获取贷款，并发放给中小型企业。</b>鲍威尔也在近期的讲话中一再强调，美联储已经准备好动用所有工具，并在较长时间内将利率维持在零，直至经济重回正轨为止。</p><p>财政部方面，<b>能否就新一轮刺激法案与参众两院达成一致是近期的工作重点。</b>根据安排，努钦将和美国副总统彭斯于今日会见美国参议院多数党（共和党）领袖麦康奈尔和美国众议院少数党（共和党）领袖麦卡锡。</p><p>此外，减税法案也可能再次被摆上桌面。<b>美国国家经济顾问库德洛今日表示，白宫正在考虑下调企业税率，</b>但目前需要等待和观望工资保护项目的变化。库德洛认为，美国经济需要一些促进增长的激励措施。</p><p><b><span>接下来，还要注意两大风险</span></b></p><p>有分析指出，在考虑推出更多工具的同时，美联储还要思考两个问题：<b><span>宽松的货币政策是否能够提振就业市场，以及这一系列政策工具会不会给经济和市场带来负面影响。</span></b></p><p>旧金山联储的两位经济学家在本周一份报告中称，虽然美联储和政府出台了许多刺激措施，<b>但美国经济前景依然充满不确定性，美国失业率仍然可能会在很长一段时间内（至少到明年）继续上升。</b></p><p>周一，纳多（Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau）和瓦莱塔（Robert Valletta）两位经济学家在旧金山联储网站上发表的一份报告中写道，失业率能否恢复到较低水平，<b>将取决于疫情得到控制的速度和程度。</b>他们写道：</p><blockquote>“我们的分析表明，到2021年某个时候，失业率有可能恢复到疫情爆发前的水平。但要实现这个预期，就需要看到比往任何经济复苏时期都快得多的招聘增长速度。”</blockquote><p>对于就业市场前景，经济学家们推断出了三种可能出现的情景。</p><blockquote>一种假设是，美国的招聘速度与其它复苏时期相似，就业水平缓慢恢复到疫情爆发前的水平，明年初失业率将保持在10%以上。另一种可能是，经济在今年下半年反弹，并在2021年保持强劲，这样失业率下降速度将会加快。最乐观的情况是，在7月份完全解除限制，招聘人数出现强劲增长，到第三季度末，招聘人数将恢复到疫情爆发前的水平。若要使该假设成立，美国在7月、8月和9月每月招聘人数要达到900万人，这一比例几乎是2008年金融危机后最强劲复苏时期的四倍。</blockquote><p>另一方面，当美联储竭尽全力支持信贷市场时，美国企业在大量举债。<b>越来越多的业内人士开始对企业债务动态表示担忧，一些分析师警告称，美联储正在引导信贷市场走向一波未来的违约潮。</b>相比之下，这波违约潮让目前的企业破产浪潮显得有些微不足道。</p><p>德银首席市场分析师Torsten Slok表示，美联储要注意新一代所谓的“僵尸企业”的发展状况。<b>或许正如鲍威尔所言，美联储和政府不仅需要提供更多帮助，还需要提供合适的帮助，否则只会适得其反。</b></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场不为所动！鲍威尔和努钦到底说了啥？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场不为所动！鲍威尔和努钦到底说了啥？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-19 22:59 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/60142><strong>金十数据 </strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>相关阅读：今晚鲍威尔会说什么？讲稿已提前公布北京时间周二22:00，美联储主席鲍威尔和美国财长努钦通过视频出席参议院金融委员会听证会，向国会通报应对新冠疫情的经济措施。在鲍威尔和努钦发言期间，现货黄金短线回升近5美元，美股三大指数短线走高后跌幅再次扩大，其他市场并无明显异动。努钦发言重点：预计经济将从第三季度开始好转美国财长努钦已经在参议院金融委员会作证词时指出，预计在第二季度将继续看到大量的失业...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/60142\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/60142","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131338390","content_text":"相关阅读：今晚鲍威尔会说什么？讲稿已提前公布北京时间周二22:00，美联储主席鲍威尔和美国财长努钦通过视频出席参议院金融委员会听证会，向国会通报应对新冠疫情的经济措施。在鲍威尔和努钦发言期间，现货黄金短线回升近5美元，美股三大指数短线走高后跌幅再次扩大，其他市场并无明显异动。努钦发言重点：预计经济将从第三季度开始好转美国财长努钦已经在参议院金融委员会作证词时指出，预计在第二季度将继续看到大量的失业以及其它负面经济指标。不过随着商业活动重启，预计美国经济将在第三和第四季度改善。此外，努钦还表示财政部将从CARES ACT中保留2590亿美元作为储备，以在需要时创建或扩大信贷项目。努钦表示，以安全的方式让人们重返工作很重要。美国有信心将渡过疫情危机，而且相信在疫情过去之后人们对经济的信心会变得更强。在纾困资金分配方面，努钦强调财政部绝对乐于承担风险和资本损失，且希望在分配所有资金之前更好地了解哪些信贷安排需要更多资金。努钦希望两党对8周的期限进行技术性修正，以确保薪资保护计划有更大的灵活性。目前市场对50年、100年国债的需求不足，努钦打算发行大量短期证券，然后将市场的借款转向期限更长的债券。努钦预计，就业人数在变得更好之前会变得更糟。6月将是非常困难的时期，首要目标是让人们有工作。如果有人不接受提供的工作，他们应该向当地政府报告，这样他们就不能领取失业福利了。努钦称，相信航空公司将遵守救援协议，将研究支持就业的所有选项，应该“认真考虑”减少中产阶级家庭的税收。鲍威尔发言重点：美联储目前的资产负债表规模并未引发金融稳定或通胀担忧美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储致力于支持经济，正在寻找办法容纳更多的市政借贷，美联储尤其关注向人口相对较少的州提供贷款。低收入的服务业工人在疫情大流行中受到打击，持续的失业问题会给经济造成多年的压力，美国面临记忆中最大的经济冲击，现在的问题是政府的应对措施是否足以显现出效果。美联储通过定期资产抵押证券贷款工具（TALF）工具承担极低的信贷风险。美联储致力于披露所有计划借款人，美联储便利机制提供的流动性仍在。到目前为止美联储发放的贷款“相当有限”，美联储将根据需要调整和改变贷款安排。美联储和国会可能需要更多地帮助经济。除了主体街计划，其他的项目在5月底之前都已经启动了，美联储对其金融工具产生了浓厚的兴趣，重要的是要考虑病毒对国家和地方政府的影响。任何使人们免于破产的事情都应该由国会考虑。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储的计划是为支持市场而设计的，不想用美联储的计划来取代市场。在疫情大流行期间，银行表现强劲，能够提供贷款，支持在当前危机期间放松银行规则。鲍威尔介绍称，美联储的资产负债表将随着贷款工具的增长而增长，预计随着时间发展，美联储的资产负债表将萎缩。重要的是资产负债表的规模相对于美国经济的规模，美联储目前的资产负债表规模并未引发金融稳定或通胀担忧。鲍威尔还表示，资产负债表的规模是有限的，额外支持措施的规模取决于经济发展道路。讨论财政政策的时间和设计不是美联储的职责，需要退后一步，看看是否提供了足够的援助。国会和美联储必须扪心自问，他们所做的是否足以支撑未来几个月的经济。鲍威尔讲稿已提前公布，聚焦三大重点另一方面，虽然演讲稿已提前公布，但鲍威尔的一举一动依然受到市场人士的广泛关注。早在鲍威尔的演讲稿提前公布之时，金十就为大家进行了详细报道。从这份演讲稿来看，鲍威尔的发言主要聚焦三大主题。第一，经济前景预测。鲍威尔指出，本季度经济数据显示，美国经济产出大幅下降，失业率同样大幅上升。此外，疫情还给一些重要的金融市场造成了巨大的压力，并削弱了经济中的信贷流动。第二，美联储政策工具的使用情况。鲍威尔强调，美联储一直秉持着即促进美国人民的最大就业和物价稳定，以及促进金融体系稳定的理念，通过积极的货币政策行动履行自己的使命。截至目前，美联储已经通过通过公开市场操作恢复市场运行，采取行动改善短期融资市场流动性状况，与财政部协作建立新项目以更直接地促进信贷流向家庭、企业、州和地方政府，以及采取措施允许和鼓励银行利用过去10年积累的大量资本和流动性等四方面的措施稳定经济。第三，监管及其他改革意见。鲍威尔认为，在已经使用以及其他美联储从未使用过的工具的发展中，公众的意见起到了关键作用。他强调，当经济和金融状况改善时，美联储将把这些工具放回工具箱。在接受议员提问时，鲍威尔表示正在寻找办法容纳更多的市政借贷，而且美联储尤其关注向人口相对较少的州提供贷款。针对鲍威尔的发言，美国参议院少数党（民主党）领袖舒默表示：“鲍威尔的言论应该会让共和党人感到震惊，从而采取救援行动。”美联储和财政部分别还有哪些招数？鲍威尔在此前的讲话中表示，美联储的政策工具尚未耗尽，并明确对负利率说不。此外，他也再次强调，美联储和国会可能需要更多地帮助经济。有鉴于此，外界十分关心，若解除封锁后经济依然无法复苏，美联储、政府和国会还将使出什么新招数？据彭博报道，美联储正在计划推出4项全新借贷工具，包括直接从银行处获取贷款，并发放给中小型企业。鲍威尔也在近期的讲话中一再强调，美联储已经准备好动用所有工具，并在较长时间内将利率维持在零，直至经济重回正轨为止。财政部方面，能否就新一轮刺激法案与参众两院达成一致是近期的工作重点。根据安排，努钦将和美国副总统彭斯于今日会见美国参议院多数党（共和党）领袖麦康奈尔和美国众议院少数党（共和党）领袖麦卡锡。此外，减税法案也可能再次被摆上桌面。美国国家经济顾问库德洛今日表示，白宫正在考虑下调企业税率，但目前需要等待和观望工资保护项目的变化。库德洛认为，美国经济需要一些促进增长的激励措施。接下来，还要注意两大风险有分析指出，在考虑推出更多工具的同时，美联储还要思考两个问题：宽松的货币政策是否能够提振就业市场，以及这一系列政策工具会不会给经济和市场带来负面影响。旧金山联储的两位经济学家在本周一份报告中称，虽然美联储和政府出台了许多刺激措施，但美国经济前景依然充满不确定性，美国失业率仍然可能会在很长一段时间内（至少到明年）继续上升。周一，纳多（Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau）和瓦莱塔（Robert Valletta）两位经济学家在旧金山联储网站上发表的一份报告中写道，失业率能否恢复到较低水平，将取决于疫情得到控制的速度和程度。他们写道：“我们的分析表明，到2021年某个时候，失业率有可能恢复到疫情爆发前的水平。但要实现这个预期，就需要看到比往任何经济复苏时期都快得多的招聘增长速度。”对于就业市场前景，经济学家们推断出了三种可能出现的情景。一种假设是，美国的招聘速度与其它复苏时期相似，就业水平缓慢恢复到疫情爆发前的水平，明年初失业率将保持在10%以上。另一种可能是，经济在今年下半年反弹，并在2021年保持强劲，这样失业率下降速度将会加快。最乐观的情况是，在7月份完全解除限制，招聘人数出现强劲增长，到第三季度末，招聘人数将恢复到疫情爆发前的水平。若要使该假设成立，美国在7月、8月和9月每月招聘人数要达到900万人，这一比例几乎是2008年金融危机后最强劲复苏时期的四倍。另一方面，当美联储竭尽全力支持信贷市场时，美国企业在大量举债。越来越多的业内人士开始对企业债务动态表示担忧，一些分析师警告称，美联储正在引导信贷市场走向一波未来的违约潮。相比之下，这波违约潮让目前的企业破产浪潮显得有些微不足道。德银首席市场分析师Torsten 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