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权者觅qi
2020-06-16
条理分明切合现实值得阅读
抱歉,原内容已删除
权者觅qi
2020-05-15
太乱了,不知道讲的什么
抱歉,原内容已删除
权者觅qi
2019-07-30
$A50指数主连(CNmain)$
明天又把癌股捅一刀
权者觅qi
2018-12-26
$京东(JD)$ 东哥,9元的时候,你开始回购?20元左右伱嫌贵不
权者觅qi
2018-12-26
$纳指ETF(QQQ)$ 老特,你能改变股市趋势吗?对你还是有信心的
权者觅qi
2018-12-26
$京东(JD)$ 一年内回购?让我陪你一年?大气一点能不能一周内,或者4小时内回购
权者觅qi
2018-12-21
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 辣鸡:弱爆
权者觅qi
2018-12-14
$京东(JD)$ 给我4小时,还你4个点或者4⃣️个亿
权者觅qi
2018-12-14
$京东(JD)$ 这是吃了艾万可?
权者觅qi
2018-12-13
$纳指ETF(QQQ)$ 为什么突然之间不能手机上交易期权,不能开、平仓,有这现象的组队组队
权者觅qi
2018-12-12
$高通(QCOM)$ 借刀杀人给你开了绿灯舒服了吗?表现为毛还是那么疲软、不持久呢
权者觅qi
2018-12-05
$标普500指数ETF(SPY)$ 死个人而已搞的这么悲惨!
权者觅qi
2018-12-02
$纳指ETF(QQQ)$ 刚才白宫的声明只传了三分钟就打不开了,哈哈
权者觅qi
2018-12-01
$纳指ETF(QQQ)$ 没有g20会议最新消息专栏?
权者觅qi
2018-11-30
$道琼斯指数ETF(DIA)$ 峰会上2个大老有什么进展?又封锁新w么
权者觅qi
2018-11-29
$苹果(AAPL)$ 有人说你的宝座让给了软哥,我看你急不急
权者觅qi
2018-11-29
$纳指ETF(QQQ)$ 市场出现什么重大利好?
权者觅qi
2018-11-28
$彭尼百货(JCP)$ 这货怎么又跑到明星股东来了?要死不活的
权者觅qi
2018-11-16
$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今夜血淋淋的!干空的请晒单羡慕一下
权者觅qi
2018-11-13
$通用电气(GE)$ 今晚是你扬眉吐气的时候了……
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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给我4小时,还你4个点或者4⃣️个亿","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355766","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":354832,"gmtCreate":1544717647393,"gmtModify":1704783856752,"author":{"id":"3434628155889270","authorId":"3434628155889270","name":"权者觅qi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff44a8e34adda4bc3478ed12499de5a3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3434628155889270","authorIdStr":"3434628155889270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$京东(JD)$ 这是吃了艾万可?","listText":"$京东(JD)$ 这是吃了艾万可?","text":"$京东(JD)$ 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10:35","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"乐视网退市阳谋:孙宏斌止损脱身,百亿负债谁来还?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101142949","media":"腾讯深网","summary":"暂停上市一年,乐视网最终还是走到了被强制退市的境地。5月14日下午,深交所发布公告,宣布乐视网股票终止上市。6月5日起,乐视网将进入退市整理期,在退市整理期届满的下一个交易日,深交所将对乐视网予以摘牌","content":"<p>暂停上市一年,乐视网最终还是走到了被强制退市的境地。</p><p><b>5月14日下午,深交所发布公告,宣布乐视网股票终止上市。</b>6月5日起,乐视网将进入退市整理期,在退市整理期届满的下一个交易日,深交所将对乐视网予以摘牌。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d1888a066110e3528c39c010cc28c2\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"188\"></p><p>根据创业板股票上市规则,上市公司如果出现暂停上市后首个年度经审计的净利润或者扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为负值,深交所有权决定终止其股票上市交易。</p><p>2月27日晚,乐视网发布2019年度业绩快报。继2017年亏损138.78亿元、2018年亏损40.96亿元之后,乐视网2019年继续巨亏112.79亿元,退市迎来了最后的宣判期。</p><p>早在2018年,贾跃亭的印记就开始被接盘者孙宏斌逐渐剜除,“乐视”之名随之消散:<b>乐视致新更名乐融致新,乐视影业更名乐创文娱......唯一留有乐视之名的,只剩下上市公司“乐视网”。</b></p><p>150亿“驰援”乐视之前,孙宏斌在乐视网、乐视致新、乐视影业三个业务中的股份分别是:8.61%、33.5%、21%。在致新和影业中持股比例远超其在乐视网中的持股比例,未来在将两者装入上市公司时,乐视网估值越低,注入后所占的股权比例越大。<b>孙宏斌或许正是看中了这一点,才选择“主动请缨”担任乐视网董事长,但是让他没有想到的是乐视的“坑”居然这么大。</b></p><p>2018年3月,孙宏斌以工作安排调整为由提前卸任乐视网董事长。暗地里,一场资产负债剥离的止损大戏正式上演。随着乐视控股和乐视网被清理出户,融创通过控股公司将乐融致新等优质资产牢牢掌控在自己手中。再加上此前对乐视影业的增持,融创也早已跻身乐视影业第一大股东。在这个过程中,融创依旧是乐视网第二大股东,8.61%的持股不增不减。</p><p>远在美国的贾跃亭向特拉华州破产法院申请个人破产重组,希望未来其个人所有的FF股权和相关受益权全部转入债权人信托,债权人也将放弃对贾跃亭和妻子甘薇的债权追偿。</p><p><b>现如今,还期待着拯救“乐视网”的恐怕也只有28万股民。</b></p><p><b>弃帅保车</b></p><p>2019年12月,乐视超级电视以别开生面的方式再度回归。</p><p>在此之前,乐融致新曾宣布将Letv超级电视的中文品牌从“乐视超级电视”变更为“乐融”,以服务于乐融致新的完全去乐视化。本以为“乐视超级电视”就此告别互联网舞台,但仅7个月后,这一乐视电视业务原有品牌再度被融创拾起。</p><p>颇具辨识力,且拥有较高积淀,融创在摇摆之后,还是并不愿就此放弃这个品牌。</p><p>2017年7月,入股乐视的第188天,从二股东到董事长,孙宏斌完成了在乐视体系中的角色转变。虽然他多次公开表态,<b>“对乐视不感兴趣,融创的生意比乐视大得多”</b>,但已不影响这一事实。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3005bf7f27657c60f90607c0ecb72dc8\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"749\"></p><p>彼时,贾跃亭三个字对乐视来说意味着高风险,<b>孙宏斌取而代之的最大意义是将贾跃亭和乐视做了明面上的切。从2017年中报披露开始,乐视网就以“新乐视”自居。</b></p><p>当有人认为融创投资乐视会失败,孙宏斌却表示,“乐视才刚开始,我还没开始干活呢,你就说亏了,失败了,这不符合事实。”在贾跃亭宣布退出乐视网董事会的第12天,孙宏斌还请了几家媒体在北京大董烤鸭店吃饭,谈到贾跃亭的进退时,毫不遮掩地表示:</p><blockquote>“乐视绝对是好东西,只要老贾出局很多人都会感兴趣。老贾从易到出局后,一天可以接到20个合作电话。”</blockquote><p>通过提名张昭和梁军,孙宏斌控制了乐视网董事会八个席位中的五个,也牢牢地将这家公司的命脉和走向掌握在自己手里。虽然曾多次打趣贾跃亭算不清乐视乱麻一样的资本账,<b>但是从亲自掌舵那一刻开始,孙宏斌才知道这个“山芋”比想的更烫手,如何尽力止损成了这位精明商人接下来的首选之策。</b></p><p>2018年1月,乐视网沟通会上,孙宏斌面对乐视的情况感慨起来:<b>“人有时候要敢叫日月换新天,有时候也要愿赌服输”。</b>此时的孙宏斌在看待乐视问题的态度上也大有转变:乐视不是“断臂”投资,而是“断头”的投资,傻子才会再借100亿。</p><p>彼时,乐融致新或已被孙宏斌视为入主乐视网之后的一艘“诺亚方舟”,估值已达96.6亿,而乐视网当时的市值仅有150亿。</p><p>乐融致新的增资序幕从天津嘉睿3亿元现金增持正式开启。2018年4月,乐视网发布公,腾讯、京东、苏宁、TCL、弘毅悉数入局乐融致新新一轮融资;与此同时,乐视网还发布公告称,如若质押危机没有得到解决,将丧失乐融致新控制权。</p><p>一位证券分析人士曾告诉腾讯《深网》,乐视网的基本盘几乎集中在乐视电视上,随着融创对乐融控制权的不断加大,随着乐视网失去对乐融致新的控制,几乎代表着乐视网的完全崩盘。</p><p>2018年9月21日至22日,乐视控股所拥有的乐融致新15.33%股权、乐视影业约21.81%股权被北京市第三中级人民法院拍卖。而这场拍卖自始至终只有一名参与买家,均以起拍价出价最终获得竞拍成功,即融创集团旗下的天津嘉睿汇鑫企业管理有限公司。</p><p>拍卖后,乐视网不再是第一大股东,彻底失去了对子公司的控制权。随后,乐融致新不再纳入乐视网合并财务报表,剥离后的乐融致新被纳入了融创文化板块。</p><p>三个月后,融创中国对旗下业务线进行调整,将乐融致新、乐创文娱,以及从万达集团收购的东方影都影视产业园整合纳入成立的融创文化集团,并成为与融创地产、融创服务和融创文旅并行的融创四大战略业务。</p><p>担任融创文化集团总裁的,则是孙宏斌之子孙喆一。</p><p><b>守夜人</b></p><p>2019年6月,乐创文娱原董事长、CEO张昭的辞任消息引起一阵唏嘘。</p><p>张昭退出乐视的猜疑最早是在2019年4月,乐融致新董事会成变更,孙喆一进入乐融致新担任董事,刘淑青仍为董事长,但乐视影业CEO张昭退出董事会。那年上影节的一场活动,张昭曾最后一次以乐创文娱董事长的身份出现,却并未如约出席。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2674cbb2ff4a06fe9528b31a70f281b9\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"578\"></p><p>张昭是乐创文娱的“魂”,在贾跃亭曾经打造的乐视生态里,乐视影业曾是乐视七个生态中重要的一环。即便在贾跃亭出走乐视,乐视影业也同乐融致新被视为乐视生态下唯二的两块良性资产。</p><p>2017年6月19日,乐视影业在上海召开发布会,接盘乐视的孙宏斌作为公司董事到场支持,拍着张昭的肩膀表示,“你不用考虑钱,只要方向对,你有的是钱。”张昭有些哽咽,</p><blockquote>“这是很久很久没有收到过的鼓励了。”</blockquote><p>在乐视体系里,能和贾跃亭对等交流,并成为其朋友的人并不多,张昭便是其一。2011年,在自己创立的光线影业过的并不遂意的张昭,终于下定决心,得到贾跃亭独立上市的许诺后,拿出自己的关系网,一手创办了乐视影业。</p><p>这不是一家“乐视式”公司。不需要太多的PPT,乐视影业的创立,来自于张昭自带的院线地推关系网——这曾是光线影业的杀手锏。这等于说,张昭来到贾跃亭麾下后,为他生造了一个小光线。</p><p>很快,乐视影业跻身国内五大民营发行公司。即便是乐视的巅峰期,乐视影业也是乐视七大生态中最为优质的业务。</p><p>张昭与贾跃亭,是各自的贵人。在乐视业务尚好的时候,两家人甚至常常结伴而游;这在乐视体系中并不多见。</p><p><b>张昭是真正有话语权的封疆大吏,也因此保持了乐视影业一定的独立性</b>。虽然在某些时候会与整个乐视体系出现一些龃龉,但在上市或者后来的注入上市公司的问题上,二者方向一致。</p><p>但风暴的来临,却使得一切发生了变化。2016年年终时,为了挽救生态危机,张昭已经向贾跃亭借出了一笔钱,这笔钱一度影响了影业的日常运营。</p><p>《人物》杂志曾记录了乐视影业最后的弹药借出去的细节。“直到凌晨3点,张昭都没有吃晚饭,将近60个烟蒂堆在面前的烟灰缸里……张昭的手机持续不断的响,打进来的电话有贾跃亭的,也有孙宏斌的”,漫长而又痛苦的一宿过去,下属来打探他的决定,“还是得借”,张昭仍然感念贾跃亭曾给他的支持和信任。</p><p>到了2017年,状况并未发生根本性变化。一位曾在乐视影业任职的人士向腾讯《深网》证实,贾跃亭反复向影业拆借资金,一度让张昭十分苦恼,“老张是一个重情义的人,很难说不”,直到后来一笔资金出现违约,孙宏斌亲自出面,才叫停了贾跃亭与张昭的资金往来。</p><p>从乐视大厦到六里屯的小楼,不需要开车,步行即可。多次表达借钱请求却未得回应的贾跃亭,终于耐不住性子,来到了小楼下,张昭还是没有见他,直至贾跃亭出走美国。</p><p>张昭没有走,乐视影业是他一手带起来的,他没有办法抛弃。当新乐视取代乐视网,张昭也被正式任命为管理委员会主席,融创则派来一位名叫刘淑青的人担任副主席。</p><p>选择了隔绝原先的乐视体系,张昭带领他的乐视影业重新出发,即便重新出发,却也十分沉重,与一群媒体老友吃饭时曾坦言:这一年烟抽的更多了。</p><p>张昭是个健谈的人,借着酒劲可以无所不谈;甚至酒酣之际,开起了玩笑,说乐视影业改成“张昭影业”,也未尝不可。</p><p>但唯独谈到贾跃亭,不愿多言。</p><p><b>“白衣骑士”</b></p><p>贾跃亭与孙宏斌的真正关系却很难还原。</p><p>作为二股东强势入局,孙宏斌限制了贾在资金上的腾挪转移,保证融创作为投资人的利益不受损。两个同样强势、控制欲强的企业家碰撞在一起,比的是谁先让步,谁先出局。</p><p>2014年,绿城遭遇资金链危机,融创以62.98亿港元的价格收购绿城24.313%的股权;2015年,佳兆业陷入禁售风波,游走在破产边缘,孙宏斌试图收购佳兆业股权,同年拟入局雨润;2016年9月,融创以137.88亿元收购联想旗下42个物业项目。</p><p>当贾跃亭出走,孙宏斌步步为营,150亿加注乐视,临危受命的白衣骑士形象再次得到巩固。紧盯乐视房产,条款里强调着“融创将作为乐视及/或其所控制的乐视系公司在房地产业务领域的唯一合作方”。</p><p>孙宏斌和柳传志也有说不清关系。</p><p>1988年,孙宏斌刚加入联想那会儿,柳传志刚过不惑之年,看着这个自信、有冲劲的年轻人感觉颇为满意。前者也很会顺势而为,借联想干部年轻化的东风一路飙升,两年后,被破格提拔为联想集团企业发展部经理,那时孙宏斌才27岁。</p><p>也是在这一年,成了孙宏斌人生的第一次重大转折点,当远在香港的柳传志看到一份题名为“联想企业报”的显眼处赫然写着“企业部的利益高于一切”时,孙宏斌不知道自己已经犯下了大错,埋下了祸根。</p><p>柳传志在干部培训班之后到企业部找孙宏斌和他的下属训话,巧的是孙宏斌并不在场。柳说在联想内部开小船是不行的,孙能力很强,但管理上有帮会成分。</p><p>话音刚落,底下几个人便站起来辩解“我们不是帮会,我们没有帮会成分”。一人唱罢,另一人接上,原本是训话,反倒让自己成了批判对象。柳传志明白过来,事情远比他预想的要严重得多。</p><blockquote>“小孙你是要我,还是要那几个青瓜蛋子?”</blockquote><p>面对柳传志这句提问,孙宏斌稍作沉默后回答说:“我要那几个‘青瓜蛋子’”,后面的解释便不再重要。</p><p>孙宏斌出狱后找到了柳传志,一是道歉,二是希望后者能助自己东山再起,推杯换盏间二人冰释前嫌,后者大手一挥直接借给孙50万做新的创业资本。在孙因案底创业受阻时,柳传志还主动撤销上诉,给予便利,并豪爽地撂下一句:</p><blockquote>“我从来没说过谁是我的朋友。现在你可以对别人说,柳传志是我的朋友”。</blockquote><p>凭借着人脉,孙宏斌敲开了房地产的大门。后来接受《盒饭财经》采访,孙宏斌还感慨了一句:</p><blockquote>“我那时年轻气盛,这件事本身,就是带着一群年轻人,想干事,也没想干什么坏事,结果过激了。有些人太不负责任了,乱写乱说乱演绎,对柳总很不公平。”</blockquote><p><b>百亿债务悬案</b></p><p>一季报显示,乐视网目前整体债务近百亿元,规模巨大。截至2020年3月31日,上市公司合并报表范围内应付票据及应付账款30.35亿元,主要为应付供应商及服务商欠款;上市公司合并报表范围内长短期借款共5.55亿元,其他流动负债33.04亿元,其它非流动负债30.49 亿元,主要为公司向金融机构及非金融企业借款产生。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e259dfb85c459e0db2b82a5bd5f74b0c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"312\"></p><p>乐视网曾是创业板龙头企业,市值一度高达千亿,一季报显示,<b>截至2020年3月31日,乐视网股东数量为28.07万户。其中贾跃亭持有9.2亿股,占比23.07%,仍为乐视网第一大股东</b>;贾跃民持有6368万股,占比1.6%;乐视控股<span>(北京)</span>有限公司持有2388万股,占比0.6%;三者所持股份全部处于冻结状态;前十大流通股名单中,还有5家机构合计持股2.31%。</p><p>但显然,贾跃亭方不认为自己应该承担全部债务,<b>5月14日,乐视控股发表声明称,贾跃亭早已不实际控制乐视网:此外还表示乐视网公司债务中贾跃亭担保的金额约30亿元;贾跃亭此次的个人债务重组计划中已经包含了乐视云担保案的债务以及乐视鑫根并购基金的连带债务</b>。</p><p>而乐视网方面回应称,截至目前,监管部门还是认定贾跃亭是乐视网的实控人,乐视控股的上述言论仅为“单方面言辞”。</p><p>300104,是乐视网的股票代码,最终也成为乐视最后的墓志铭。守夜人已黯然离场,28万股民却尚未脱身,孙宏斌不再纠结:乐融致新和乐创文娱在资本腾挪过程中对谁不公平?</p><p>身在其位,委屈都往肚里咽,在辞去乐视职务之后,孙宏斌的态度也一度强硬起来:</p><blockquote>“如果挣钱了,祝贺你;如果亏钱了,跟我没关系,别骂我,我还想骂人呢。以后你骂我一句,我骂你10句!我亏得比你多。”</blockquote><p>3月29日,孙宏斌出席香港业绩发布会再谈乐视:<b>“再过一年,大家都忘了。”</b></p><p>此话一出,在场投资者纷纷鼓掌叫好。</p>","source":"txsw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n乐视网退市阳谋:孙宏斌止损脱身,百亿负债谁来还?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-15 10:35 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/H9Nws-hTotJee7o3wugVww><strong>腾讯深网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>暂停上市一年,乐视网最终还是走到了被强制退市的境地。5月14日下午,深交所发布公告,宣布乐视网股票终止上市。6月5日起,乐视网将进入退市整理期,在退市整理期届满的下一个交易日,深交所将对乐视网予以摘牌。根据创业板股票上市规则,上市公司如果出现暂停上市后首个年度经审计的净利润或者扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为负值,深交所有权决定终止其股票上市交易。2月27日晚,乐视网发布2019年度业绩快报。继...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/H9Nws-hTotJee7o3wugVww\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e259dfb85c459e0db2b82a5bd5f74b0c","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/H9Nws-hTotJee7o3wugVww","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101142949","content_text":"暂停上市一年,乐视网最终还是走到了被强制退市的境地。5月14日下午,深交所发布公告,宣布乐视网股票终止上市。6月5日起,乐视网将进入退市整理期,在退市整理期届满的下一个交易日,深交所将对乐视网予以摘牌。根据创业板股票上市规则,上市公司如果出现暂停上市后首个年度经审计的净利润或者扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为负值,深交所有权决定终止其股票上市交易。2月27日晚,乐视网发布2019年度业绩快报。继2017年亏损138.78亿元、2018年亏损40.96亿元之后,乐视网2019年继续巨亏112.79亿元,退市迎来了最后的宣判期。早在2018年,贾跃亭的印记就开始被接盘者孙宏斌逐渐剜除,“乐视”之名随之消散:乐视致新更名乐融致新,乐视影业更名乐创文娱......唯一留有乐视之名的,只剩下上市公司“乐视网”。150亿“驰援”乐视之前,孙宏斌在乐视网、乐视致新、乐视影业三个业务中的股份分别是:8.61%、33.5%、21%。在致新和影业中持股比例远超其在乐视网中的持股比例,未来在将两者装入上市公司时,乐视网估值越低,注入后所占的股权比例越大。孙宏斌或许正是看中了这一点,才选择“主动请缨”担任乐视网董事长,但是让他没有想到的是乐视的“坑”居然这么大。2018年3月,孙宏斌以工作安排调整为由提前卸任乐视网董事长。暗地里,一场资产负债剥离的止损大戏正式上演。随着乐视控股和乐视网被清理出户,融创通过控股公司将乐融致新等优质资产牢牢掌控在自己手中。再加上此前对乐视影业的增持,融创也早已跻身乐视影业第一大股东。在这个过程中,融创依旧是乐视网第二大股东,8.61%的持股不增不减。远在美国的贾跃亭向特拉华州破产法院申请个人破产重组,希望未来其个人所有的FF股权和相关受益权全部转入债权人信托,债权人也将放弃对贾跃亭和妻子甘薇的债权追偿。现如今,还期待着拯救“乐视网”的恐怕也只有28万股民。弃帅保车2019年12月,乐视超级电视以别开生面的方式再度回归。在此之前,乐融致新曾宣布将Letv超级电视的中文品牌从“乐视超级电视”变更为“乐融”,以服务于乐融致新的完全去乐视化。本以为“乐视超级电视”就此告别互联网舞台,但仅7个月后,这一乐视电视业务原有品牌再度被融创拾起。颇具辨识力,且拥有较高积淀,融创在摇摆之后,还是并不愿就此放弃这个品牌。2017年7月,入股乐视的第188天,从二股东到董事长,孙宏斌完成了在乐视体系中的角色转变。虽然他多次公开表态,“对乐视不感兴趣,融创的生意比乐视大得多”,但已不影响这一事实。彼时,贾跃亭三个字对乐视来说意味着高风险,孙宏斌取而代之的最大意义是将贾跃亭和乐视做了明面上的切。从2017年中报披露开始,乐视网就以“新乐视”自居。当有人认为融创投资乐视会失败,孙宏斌却表示,“乐视才刚开始,我还没开始干活呢,你就说亏了,失败了,这不符合事实。”在贾跃亭宣布退出乐视网董事会的第12天,孙宏斌还请了几家媒体在北京大董烤鸭店吃饭,谈到贾跃亭的进退时,毫不遮掩地表示:“乐视绝对是好东西,只要老贾出局很多人都会感兴趣。老贾从易到出局后,一天可以接到20个合作电话。”通过提名张昭和梁军,孙宏斌控制了乐视网董事会八个席位中的五个,也牢牢地将这家公司的命脉和走向掌握在自己手里。虽然曾多次打趣贾跃亭算不清乐视乱麻一样的资本账,但是从亲自掌舵那一刻开始,孙宏斌才知道这个“山芋”比想的更烫手,如何尽力止损成了这位精明商人接下来的首选之策。2018年1月,乐视网沟通会上,孙宏斌面对乐视的情况感慨起来:“人有时候要敢叫日月换新天,有时候也要愿赌服输”。此时的孙宏斌在看待乐视问题的态度上也大有转变:乐视不是“断臂”投资,而是“断头”的投资,傻子才会再借100亿。彼时,乐融致新或已被孙宏斌视为入主乐视网之后的一艘“诺亚方舟”,估值已达96.6亿,而乐视网当时的市值仅有150亿。乐融致新的增资序幕从天津嘉睿3亿元现金增持正式开启。2018年4月,乐视网发布公,腾讯、京东、苏宁、TCL、弘毅悉数入局乐融致新新一轮融资;与此同时,乐视网还发布公告称,如若质押危机没有得到解决,将丧失乐融致新控制权。一位证券分析人士曾告诉腾讯《深网》,乐视网的基本盘几乎集中在乐视电视上,随着融创对乐融控制权的不断加大,随着乐视网失去对乐融致新的控制,几乎代表着乐视网的完全崩盘。2018年9月21日至22日,乐视控股所拥有的乐融致新15.33%股权、乐视影业约21.81%股权被北京市第三中级人民法院拍卖。而这场拍卖自始至终只有一名参与买家,均以起拍价出价最终获得竞拍成功,即融创集团旗下的天津嘉睿汇鑫企业管理有限公司。拍卖后,乐视网不再是第一大股东,彻底失去了对子公司的控制权。随后,乐融致新不再纳入乐视网合并财务报表,剥离后的乐融致新被纳入了融创文化板块。三个月后,融创中国对旗下业务线进行调整,将乐融致新、乐创文娱,以及从万达集团收购的东方影都影视产业园整合纳入成立的融创文化集团,并成为与融创地产、融创服务和融创文旅并行的融创四大战略业务。担任融创文化集团总裁的,则是孙宏斌之子孙喆一。守夜人2019年6月,乐创文娱原董事长、CEO张昭的辞任消息引起一阵唏嘘。张昭退出乐视的猜疑最早是在2019年4月,乐融致新董事会成变更,孙喆一进入乐融致新担任董事,刘淑青仍为董事长,但乐视影业CEO张昭退出董事会。那年上影节的一场活动,张昭曾最后一次以乐创文娱董事长的身份出现,却并未如约出席。张昭是乐创文娱的“魂”,在贾跃亭曾经打造的乐视生态里,乐视影业曾是乐视七个生态中重要的一环。即便在贾跃亭出走乐视,乐视影业也同乐融致新被视为乐视生态下唯二的两块良性资产。2017年6月19日,乐视影业在上海召开发布会,接盘乐视的孙宏斌作为公司董事到场支持,拍着张昭的肩膀表示,“你不用考虑钱,只要方向对,你有的是钱。”张昭有些哽咽,“这是很久很久没有收到过的鼓励了。”在乐视体系里,能和贾跃亭对等交流,并成为其朋友的人并不多,张昭便是其一。2011年,在自己创立的光线影业过的并不遂意的张昭,终于下定决心,得到贾跃亭独立上市的许诺后,拿出自己的关系网,一手创办了乐视影业。这不是一家“乐视式”公司。不需要太多的PPT,乐视影业的创立,来自于张昭自带的院线地推关系网——这曾是光线影业的杀手锏。这等于说,张昭来到贾跃亭麾下后,为他生造了一个小光线。很快,乐视影业跻身国内五大民营发行公司。即便是乐视的巅峰期,乐视影业也是乐视七大生态中最为优质的业务。张昭与贾跃亭,是各自的贵人。在乐视业务尚好的时候,两家人甚至常常结伴而游;这在乐视体系中并不多见。张昭是真正有话语权的封疆大吏,也因此保持了乐视影业一定的独立性。虽然在某些时候会与整个乐视体系出现一些龃龉,但在上市或者后来的注入上市公司的问题上,二者方向一致。但风暴的来临,却使得一切发生了变化。2016年年终时,为了挽救生态危机,张昭已经向贾跃亭借出了一笔钱,这笔钱一度影响了影业的日常运营。《人物》杂志曾记录了乐视影业最后的弹药借出去的细节。“直到凌晨3点,张昭都没有吃晚饭,将近60个烟蒂堆在面前的烟灰缸里……张昭的手机持续不断的响,打进来的电话有贾跃亭的,也有孙宏斌的”,漫长而又痛苦的一宿过去,下属来打探他的决定,“还是得借”,张昭仍然感念贾跃亭曾给他的支持和信任。到了2017年,状况并未发生根本性变化。一位曾在乐视影业任职的人士向腾讯《深网》证实,贾跃亭反复向影业拆借资金,一度让张昭十分苦恼,“老张是一个重情义的人,很难说不”,直到后来一笔资金出现违约,孙宏斌亲自出面,才叫停了贾跃亭与张昭的资金往来。从乐视大厦到六里屯的小楼,不需要开车,步行即可。多次表达借钱请求却未得回应的贾跃亭,终于耐不住性子,来到了小楼下,张昭还是没有见他,直至贾跃亭出走美国。张昭没有走,乐视影业是他一手带起来的,他没有办法抛弃。当新乐视取代乐视网,张昭也被正式任命为管理委员会主席,融创则派来一位名叫刘淑青的人担任副主席。选择了隔绝原先的乐视体系,张昭带领他的乐视影业重新出发,即便重新出发,却也十分沉重,与一群媒体老友吃饭时曾坦言:这一年烟抽的更多了。张昭是个健谈的人,借着酒劲可以无所不谈;甚至酒酣之际,开起了玩笑,说乐视影业改成“张昭影业”,也未尝不可。但唯独谈到贾跃亭,不愿多言。“白衣骑士”贾跃亭与孙宏斌的真正关系却很难还原。作为二股东强势入局,孙宏斌限制了贾在资金上的腾挪转移,保证融创作为投资人的利益不受损。两个同样强势、控制欲强的企业家碰撞在一起,比的是谁先让步,谁先出局。2014年,绿城遭遇资金链危机,融创以62.98亿港元的价格收购绿城24.313%的股权;2015年,佳兆业陷入禁售风波,游走在破产边缘,孙宏斌试图收购佳兆业股权,同年拟入局雨润;2016年9月,融创以137.88亿元收购联想旗下42个物业项目。当贾跃亭出走,孙宏斌步步为营,150亿加注乐视,临危受命的白衣骑士形象再次得到巩固。紧盯乐视房产,条款里强调着“融创将作为乐视及/或其所控制的乐视系公司在房地产业务领域的唯一合作方”。孙宏斌和柳传志也有说不清关系。1988年,孙宏斌刚加入联想那会儿,柳传志刚过不惑之年,看着这个自信、有冲劲的年轻人感觉颇为满意。前者也很会顺势而为,借联想干部年轻化的东风一路飙升,两年后,被破格提拔为联想集团企业发展部经理,那时孙宏斌才27岁。也是在这一年,成了孙宏斌人生的第一次重大转折点,当远在香港的柳传志看到一份题名为“联想企业报”的显眼处赫然写着“企业部的利益高于一切”时,孙宏斌不知道自己已经犯下了大错,埋下了祸根。柳传志在干部培训班之后到企业部找孙宏斌和他的下属训话,巧的是孙宏斌并不在场。柳说在联想内部开小船是不行的,孙能力很强,但管理上有帮会成分。话音刚落,底下几个人便站起来辩解“我们不是帮会,我们没有帮会成分”。一人唱罢,另一人接上,原本是训话,反倒让自己成了批判对象。柳传志明白过来,事情远比他预想的要严重得多。“小孙你是要我,还是要那几个青瓜蛋子?”面对柳传志这句提问,孙宏斌稍作沉默后回答说:“我要那几个‘青瓜蛋子’”,后面的解释便不再重要。孙宏斌出狱后找到了柳传志,一是道歉,二是希望后者能助自己东山再起,推杯换盏间二人冰释前嫌,后者大手一挥直接借给孙50万做新的创业资本。在孙因案底创业受阻时,柳传志还主动撤销上诉,给予便利,并豪爽地撂下一句:“我从来没说过谁是我的朋友。现在你可以对别人说,柳传志是我的朋友”。凭借着人脉,孙宏斌敲开了房地产的大门。后来接受《盒饭财经》采访,孙宏斌还感慨了一句:“我那时年轻气盛,这件事本身,就是带着一群年轻人,想干事,也没想干什么坏事,结果过激了。有些人太不负责任了,乱写乱说乱演绎,对柳总很不公平。”百亿债务悬案一季报显示,乐视网目前整体债务近百亿元,规模巨大。截至2020年3月31日,上市公司合并报表范围内应付票据及应付账款30.35亿元,主要为应付供应商及服务商欠款;上市公司合并报表范围内长短期借款共5.55亿元,其他流动负债33.04亿元,其它非流动负债30.49 亿元,主要为公司向金融机构及非金融企业借款产生。乐视网曾是创业板龙头企业,市值一度高达千亿,一季报显示,截至2020年3月31日,乐视网股东数量为28.07万户。其中贾跃亭持有9.2亿股,占比23.07%,仍为乐视网第一大股东;贾跃民持有6368万股,占比1.6%;乐视控股(北京)有限公司持有2388万股,占比0.6%;三者所持股份全部处于冻结状态;前十大流通股名单中,还有5家机构合计持股2.31%。但显然,贾跃亭方不认为自己应该承担全部债务,5月14日,乐视控股发表声明称,贾跃亭早已不实际控制乐视网:此外还表示乐视网公司债务中贾跃亭担保的金额约30亿元;贾跃亭此次的个人债务重组计划中已经包含了乐视云担保案的债务以及乐视鑫根并购基金的连带债务。而乐视网方面回应称,截至目前,监管部门还是认定贾跃亭是乐视网的实控人,乐视控股的上述言论仅为“单方面言辞”。300104,是乐视网的股票代码,最终也成为乐视最后的墓志铭。守夜人已黯然离场,28万股民却尚未脱身,孙宏斌不再纠结:乐融致新和乐创文娱在资本腾挪过程中对谁不公平?身在其位,委屈都往肚里咽,在辞去乐视职务之后,孙宏斌的态度也一度强硬起来:“如果挣钱了,祝贺你;如果亏钱了,跟我没关系,别骂我,我还想骂人呢。以后你骂我一句,我骂你10句!我亏得比你多。”3月29日,孙宏斌出席香港业绩发布会再谈乐视:“再过一年,大家都忘了。”此话一出,在场投资者纷纷鼓掌叫好。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2098,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":364923,"gmtCreate":1545835922228,"gmtModify":1704785056092,"author":{"id":"3434628155889270","authorId":"3434628155889270","name":"权者觅qi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff44a8e34adda4bc3478ed12499de5a3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3434628155889270","authorIdStr":"3434628155889270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$京东(JD)$ 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市场出现什么重大利好?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341914","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":844,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":955117925,"gmtCreate":1592320182267,"gmtModify":1704198878391,"author":{"id":"3434628155889270","authorId":"3434628155889270","name":"权者觅qi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff44a8e34adda4bc3478ed12499de5a3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3434628155889270","authorIdStr":"3434628155889270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"条理分明切合现实值得阅读","listText":"条理分明切合现实值得阅读","text":"条理分明切合现实值得阅读","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/955117925","repostId":"1159656820","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159656820","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1592313883,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159656820?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-06-16 21:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"反弹还是反转?剧震之后的美股将往何处去","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159656820","media":"凭澜观涛","summary":"近期美股剧震给市场狂热降温。","content":"<p><span>作者:管涛</span></p>\n<p><b>近期美股剧震给市场狂热降温</b></p>\n<p>基于美国次贷危机演变成全球金融海啸间隔了一年多时间的经验,提醒投资者<b>不要轻信近期美股反弹是反转的观点,甚至不要轻信市场不会有新低的预判</b>。</p>\n<p>我做出上述判断的基本逻辑是,上次金融危机的传导链条是有毒资产。以房地产次级贷款为底层资产的有毒资产,先放倒了生产有毒资产的房贷机构,再放倒了购买有毒资产的金融机构。直到美联储、财政部出手,买走有毒资产,美国才走出危机。</p>\n<p>以此类推,<b>这次只要新冠肺炎病毒不除,美国就难以走出由此引发的经济金融危机,美股继续调整就难以避免</b>。实际上,5月15日美联储发布半年度金融稳定报告时就预警:「如果疫情发展出人意料,造成的经济后果经事实证明更为不利,或金融体系再度出现紧张局面,那么资产价格仍容易出现大幅下跌。」</p>\n<p>前文完成于4月中下旬。此后,美股延续了3月底以来的「水牛」行情,三大指数较3月23日最多反弹了近50%,其中纳指还创了历史新高。然而,<b>上周(6月8日至12日)美股突然创下3月20日以来的最大周跌幅,给市场的狂热泼了一盆冷水</b>(见图1)。<b>这再次提醒我们,不能忽视美股二次调整的风险。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea87f8d3804f8e525fdef119b4a463e5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"686\"></p>\n<p>上周美股震荡主要拜6月11日单日大跌所赐。当日,道指、标普500和纳指分别下跌6.9%、5.9%和5.3%。据分析,美联储议息会议释放美国经济前景黯淡的预期,加之市场对于经济重启和抗议示威引发美国疫情反弹的担忧,触发了这次调整。其实,这些利空在市场上早已不是新闻。这是典型的多重均衡,即在给定条件下,金融市场既可能出现好结果,也可能出现坏结果。这次是坏结果的一次预演。</p>\n<p><b>新冠病毒不除危机警报难解</b></p>\n<p>显然,在发现疫苗或特效药之前,新冠疫情恐不会自动消失。</p>\n<p>现在,全球每天新增确诊病例10多万例,死亡病例数千人。欧美疫情上升风险初步得到控制,巴西、印度、俄罗斯、秘鲁、智利等新兴市场和发展中国家却疫情大暴发,成为新的震中。在疫情已得到控制的国家和地区,不排除因本土反弹或境外输入,疫情出现反复。又或是进入秋冬之际,又会有第二波传染。这不取决于美联储和财政部,也不取决于你信不信,而是取决于疾病专家,取决于科学。</p>\n<p>面对疫情,各国无论采取社交隔离还是群体免疫的做法,当地经济都会受到影响,只是程度大小而已。<b>影响渠道有二</b>:一个是出于公共卫生安全的原因,企业和家庭不能或不愿开工或返工,居民不能或不愿消费;另一个是因为国际物流受阻,全球产业链供应链中断,海外需求不足,进而抑制国内复工复产。</p>\n<p>例如,瑞典采取了群体免疫策略,没有强行停工停产、居家隔离,今年一季度经济实际同比仅增长0.4%,增速为2013年第三季度以来最低。</p>\n<p>再如,韩国、日本的佛系防控较为成功,今年一季度,韩国经济实际增长1.4%,增速为2009年第四季度以来最低;日本经济衰退1.7%,较上季加深1个百分点,增速为2009年第四季度以来最低。</p>\n<p>还如,尽管本土疫情传播基本阻断,但受内外部因素制约,需求恢复慢于供给,第二季度中国经济快速反弹的预期落空。</p>\n<p>此外,据美国经济分析局统计,美国个人储蓄率4月增加近三倍,达到33%。</p>\n<p>世界银行6月8日发布《全球经济展望》表示,新冠疫情或将使全球经济陷入二战以来最严重的衰退,预计全球经济今年收缩5.2%。</p>\n<p>经济合作与发展组织6月10日在《走钢丝的世界经济》报告中表示,今年全球经济将收缩6%以上。如果今年晚些时候出现第二波传染,经济产出有可能萎缩7.6%。全球经济明年应当会恢复增长,若新冠肺炎疫情得到控制会增长5.2%,若疫情再次暴发则增长2.8%。</p>\n<p>国际货币基金组织5月中旬也对外表示,近期将进一步下调今年世界经济增长预测值,上次预测世界经济衰退3%。</p>\n<p>美国政府多次表态,即使疫情二次暴发,也不会采取经济停摆的措施。但客观上,海内外疫情持续时间越长,对美国经济的负面影响就越大。</p>\n<p>6月10日,鲍威尔在议息声明发表后再次重申,美联储承诺将致力于使用所有工具。同时表示,美国经济低迷程度「极不确定」,这将取决于能否遏制病毒。尽管一些指标表明某些行业企稳,但经济活动总体上还没有好转。据美联储最新预测,今年美国经济萎缩6.5%,明年增长5%。由此可见,明年美国经济都恐难恢复到去年的水平。</p>\n<p><b>如果美国经济活动长期因疫情被压抑,将出现企业盈利下降、债务违约甚至破产,银行资产质量恶化甚至倒闭,以及大量居民永久性失业</b>。如果说现在还不算是严格意义的危机的话,那么,上述情形出现后,无疑就是典型的经济或金融危机。而每次危机,美股大都会经历较长时间和较深幅度的调整。如本世纪初美国高科技泡沫破灭,纳指最多下跌78%,耗时31个月;上次金融危机,道指最多下跌54%,耗时15个月。</p>\n<p>这次,道指从今年2月12日高点跌到3月23日低点,下跌37%,只耗时1个多月,确实跌速超快。但<b>面对战后最严重的且复苏前景高度不确定的经济衰退,美股已有的调整显然还不充分,更不要说大幅反弹之后,美国经济尚未见底,美股却已收复了绝大部分失地,纳指还创了新高</b>。</p>\n<p><b>谨防估值虚高下美股震荡加剧</b></p>\n<p><b>当前美股表现已背离了经济基本面,美股估值虚高的矛盾进一步凸显</b>。</p>\n<p>今年2、3月份美股快速下跌,本就反映了十年牛市形成的美股估值偏高的脆弱性。3月底,标普500席勒市盈率跌至24.9倍,较2017年初至2019年底各月底平均值30.2倍低了18%。5月底,席勒市盈率反弹至27.6倍,高于2007年各月底平均值26.8倍的水平,与大萧条美股崩盘时1929年的各月底平均值不相上下(见图2)。最近,大量散户蜂拥入场,大炒超跌概念,濒临破产的上市公司股票涨几倍十几倍的比比皆是。</p>\n<p>大水漫灌背景下,当下市场的疯狂可见一斑,同时也反映了美联储救市造成的投资者逆向选择和道德风险急剧上升。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5f6c88afb18e199d4876de1df086fa1\" tg-width=\"1055\" tg-height=\"697\"></p>\n<p>过去两个多月时间,美股由技术性熊市迅速转入牛市,大幅透支了美联储和财政部救助、美国经济重启的利好。<b>一旦疫情反复及经济重启不如预期,就可能重新逆转市场情绪</b>。这次美联储无底线的大放水,促成了流动性驱动的美股大反转,让投资者赚了大把的钱,市场当然不吝美言,甚至喊出了「不要同美联储作对」的话。但上次出手是救在市场底部,这次却可能救在了半山腰。美联储在这个位置上的压力可是不轻。</p>\n<p>这次美联储放大招,遏制了股灾触发的市场恐慌演变成为全面的金融危机。按照前述逻辑,如果美股重新大幅下挫,再度引爆市场恐慌,美联储将会继续出手。况且,特朗普已就日前美股大跌批评美联储经常犯错。然而,由于美联储的企业信贷支持和资产购买计划,以及财政部的第四轮刺激计划均缺乏新意,恐对提振市场信心的边际效应递减。</p>\n<p>关键是这些措施治标不治本,难以改变疫情下经济基本面恶化、股市下行的趋势。一旦市场认为美联储可能黔驴技穷,将会陷入更加恐慌的境地。而当前市场上盛行的被动交易策略或技术,本身有助涨助跌的效果,这将放大资产价格波动,加剧市场恐慌。正如3月份美股十天四熔断所发生的那样。</p>\n<p>当然,美股正处于既可能上涨(流动性驱动)也可能下跌(基本面恶化)的十字路口。这既取决于疫情、疫苗和经济复苏等基本面因素,也取决于市场情绪变化。二者都有巨大的不确定性,尤其是人心难测。上周美股剧震说明,同样的基本面因素,市场会有不同的解读。我们不能绝对排除出现坏的结果。</p>\n<p>因此,<b>投资者要在不确定性中把握确定性的机会,更多配置安全边际高的资产。在做多的同时,也要树立底线思维,做好市场回撤的心理和措施准备</b>。</p>","source":"lsy1592313796292","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n反弹还是反转?剧震之后的美股将往何处去\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-06-16 21:24 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8u8Top9k7DenOHiXQNDIUg><strong>凭澜观涛</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者:管涛\n近期美股剧震给市场狂热降温\n基于美国次贷危机演变成全球金融海啸间隔了一年多时间的经验,提醒投资者不要轻信近期美股反弹是反转的观点,甚至不要轻信市场不会有新低的预判。\n我做出上述判断的基本逻辑是,上次金融危机的传导链条是有毒资产。以房地产次级贷款为底层资产的有毒资产,先放倒了生产有毒资产的房贷机构,再放倒了购买有毒资产的金融机构。直到美联储、财政部出手,买走有毒资产,美国才走出危机。\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8u8Top9k7DenOHiXQNDIUg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8u8Top9k7DenOHiXQNDIUg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159656820","content_text":"作者:管涛\n近期美股剧震给市场狂热降温\n基于美国次贷危机演变成全球金融海啸间隔了一年多时间的经验,提醒投资者不要轻信近期美股反弹是反转的观点,甚至不要轻信市场不会有新低的预判。\n我做出上述判断的基本逻辑是,上次金融危机的传导链条是有毒资产。以房地产次级贷款为底层资产的有毒资产,先放倒了生产有毒资产的房贷机构,再放倒了购买有毒资产的金融机构。直到美联储、财政部出手,买走有毒资产,美国才走出危机。\n以此类推,这次只要新冠肺炎病毒不除,美国就难以走出由此引发的经济金融危机,美股继续调整就难以避免。实际上,5月15日美联储发布半年度金融稳定报告时就预警:「如果疫情发展出人意料,造成的经济后果经事实证明更为不利,或金融体系再度出现紧张局面,那么资产价格仍容易出现大幅下跌。」\n前文完成于4月中下旬。此后,美股延续了3月底以来的「水牛」行情,三大指数较3月23日最多反弹了近50%,其中纳指还创了历史新高。然而,上周(6月8日至12日)美股突然创下3月20日以来的最大周跌幅,给市场的狂热泼了一盆冷水(见图1)。这再次提醒我们,不能忽视美股二次调整的风险。\n\n上周美股震荡主要拜6月11日单日大跌所赐。当日,道指、标普500和纳指分别下跌6.9%、5.9%和5.3%。据分析,美联储议息会议释放美国经济前景黯淡的预期,加之市场对于经济重启和抗议示威引发美国疫情反弹的担忧,触发了这次调整。其实,这些利空在市场上早已不是新闻。这是典型的多重均衡,即在给定条件下,金融市场既可能出现好结果,也可能出现坏结果。这次是坏结果的一次预演。\n新冠病毒不除危机警报难解\n显然,在发现疫苗或特效药之前,新冠疫情恐不会自动消失。\n现在,全球每天新增确诊病例10多万例,死亡病例数千人。欧美疫情上升风险初步得到控制,巴西、印度、俄罗斯、秘鲁、智利等新兴市场和发展中国家却疫情大暴发,成为新的震中。在疫情已得到控制的国家和地区,不排除因本土反弹或境外输入,疫情出现反复。又或是进入秋冬之际,又会有第二波传染。这不取决于美联储和财政部,也不取决于你信不信,而是取决于疾病专家,取决于科学。\n面对疫情,各国无论采取社交隔离还是群体免疫的做法,当地经济都会受到影响,只是程度大小而已。影响渠道有二:一个是出于公共卫生安全的原因,企业和家庭不能或不愿开工或返工,居民不能或不愿消费;另一个是因为国际物流受阻,全球产业链供应链中断,海外需求不足,进而抑制国内复工复产。\n例如,瑞典采取了群体免疫策略,没有强行停工停产、居家隔离,今年一季度经济实际同比仅增长0.4%,增速为2013年第三季度以来最低。\n再如,韩国、日本的佛系防控较为成功,今年一季度,韩国经济实际增长1.4%,增速为2009年第四季度以来最低;日本经济衰退1.7%,较上季加深1个百分点,增速为2009年第四季度以来最低。\n还如,尽管本土疫情传播基本阻断,但受内外部因素制约,需求恢复慢于供给,第二季度中国经济快速反弹的预期落空。\n此外,据美国经济分析局统计,美国个人储蓄率4月增加近三倍,达到33%。\n世界银行6月8日发布《全球经济展望》表示,新冠疫情或将使全球经济陷入二战以来最严重的衰退,预计全球经济今年收缩5.2%。\n经济合作与发展组织6月10日在《走钢丝的世界经济》报告中表示,今年全球经济将收缩6%以上。如果今年晚些时候出现第二波传染,经济产出有可能萎缩7.6%。全球经济明年应当会恢复增长,若新冠肺炎疫情得到控制会增长5.2%,若疫情再次暴发则增长2.8%。\n国际货币基金组织5月中旬也对外表示,近期将进一步下调今年世界经济增长预测值,上次预测世界经济衰退3%。\n美国政府多次表态,即使疫情二次暴发,也不会采取经济停摆的措施。但客观上,海内外疫情持续时间越长,对美国经济的负面影响就越大。\n6月10日,鲍威尔在议息声明发表后再次重申,美联储承诺将致力于使用所有工具。同时表示,美国经济低迷程度「极不确定」,这将取决于能否遏制病毒。尽管一些指标表明某些行业企稳,但经济活动总体上还没有好转。据美联储最新预测,今年美国经济萎缩6.5%,明年增长5%。由此可见,明年美国经济都恐难恢复到去年的水平。\n如果美国经济活动长期因疫情被压抑,将出现企业盈利下降、债务违约甚至破产,银行资产质量恶化甚至倒闭,以及大量居民永久性失业。如果说现在还不算是严格意义的危机的话,那么,上述情形出现后,无疑就是典型的经济或金融危机。而每次危机,美股大都会经历较长时间和较深幅度的调整。如本世纪初美国高科技泡沫破灭,纳指最多下跌78%,耗时31个月;上次金融危机,道指最多下跌54%,耗时15个月。\n这次,道指从今年2月12日高点跌到3月23日低点,下跌37%,只耗时1个多月,确实跌速超快。但面对战后最严重的且复苏前景高度不确定的经济衰退,美股已有的调整显然还不充分,更不要说大幅反弹之后,美国经济尚未见底,美股却已收复了绝大部分失地,纳指还创了新高。\n谨防估值虚高下美股震荡加剧\n当前美股表现已背离了经济基本面,美股估值虚高的矛盾进一步凸显。\n今年2、3月份美股快速下跌,本就反映了十年牛市形成的美股估值偏高的脆弱性。3月底,标普500席勒市盈率跌至24.9倍,较2017年初至2019年底各月底平均值30.2倍低了18%。5月底,席勒市盈率反弹至27.6倍,高于2007年各月底平均值26.8倍的水平,与大萧条美股崩盘时1929年的各月底平均值不相上下(见图2)。最近,大量散户蜂拥入场,大炒超跌概念,濒临破产的上市公司股票涨几倍十几倍的比比皆是。\n大水漫灌背景下,当下市场的疯狂可见一斑,同时也反映了美联储救市造成的投资者逆向选择和道德风险急剧上升。\n\n过去两个多月时间,美股由技术性熊市迅速转入牛市,大幅透支了美联储和财政部救助、美国经济重启的利好。一旦疫情反复及经济重启不如预期,就可能重新逆转市场情绪。这次美联储无底线的大放水,促成了流动性驱动的美股大反转,让投资者赚了大把的钱,市场当然不吝美言,甚至喊出了「不要同美联储作对」的话。但上次出手是救在市场底部,这次却可能救在了半山腰。美联储在这个位置上的压力可是不轻。\n这次美联储放大招,遏制了股灾触发的市场恐慌演变成为全面的金融危机。按照前述逻辑,如果美股重新大幅下挫,再度引爆市场恐慌,美联储将会继续出手。况且,特朗普已就日前美股大跌批评美联储经常犯错。然而,由于美联储的企业信贷支持和资产购买计划,以及财政部的第四轮刺激计划均缺乏新意,恐对提振市场信心的边际效应递减。\n关键是这些措施治标不治本,难以改变疫情下经济基本面恶化、股市下行的趋势。一旦市场认为美联储可能黔驴技穷,将会陷入更加恐慌的境地。而当前市场上盛行的被动交易策略或技术,本身有助涨助跌的效果,这将放大资产价格波动,加剧市场恐慌。正如3月份美股十天四熔断所发生的那样。\n当然,美股正处于既可能上涨(流动性驱动)也可能下跌(基本面恶化)的十字路口。这既取决于疫情、疫苗和经济复苏等基本面因素,也取决于市场情绪变化。二者都有巨大的不确定性,尤其是人心难测。上周美股剧震说明,同样的基本面因素,市场会有不同的解读。我们不能绝对排除出现坏的结果。\n因此,投资者要在不确定性中把握确定性的机会,更多配置安全边际高的资产。在做多的同时,也要树立底线思维,做好市场回撤的心理和措施准备。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":354832,"gmtCreate":1544717647393,"gmtModify":1704783856752,"author":{"id":"3434628155889270","authorId":"3434628155889270","name":"权者觅qi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff44a8e34adda4bc3478ed12499de5a3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3434628155889270","authorIdStr":"3434628155889270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$京东(JD)$ 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