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AXE_CAPTIAL

AXE_CAPTIAL

安全边际

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2017-06-29

$Walgreens Boots Alliance(WBA)$ $来德爱(RAD)$ WBA财报超过预期eps 1.33, 同时宣布收购RAD 2186个门店

2017-07-21

晒这个月的收益

顺便提一句做期权的话指数基金要远比个股稳的多有了美光的经验不要赌财报钱永远是最聪明的市场总能给你教训#每日一单# 贴下信仰名单$特斯拉(TSLA)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $Facebook(FB)$ $Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$$谷歌(GOOG)$ $陌陌(MOMO)$ $欢聚时代(YY)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $京东(JD)$ $融创中国(01918)$ $中国恒大(03333)$ $新城发展控股(01030)$

晒这个月的收益

2017-07-15

涨

$QQQ 20170818 145.0 CALL(QQQ)$ 继续晒牛市要守住

2017-09-07

摩根士丹利给予法拉利降级评价

$法拉利(RACE)$ 从跑赢大盘降为跑输大盘，目标价100$特斯拉(TSLA)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $京东(JD)$ $网易(NTES)$ $Facebook(FB)$ $亚马逊(AMZN)$

摩根士丹利给予法拉利降级评价

2017-06-23

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 低开高走的套路 385附近明显压力变大

2017-07-28

财报容易忽视的地方

$亚马逊(AMZN)$ 说财报利空的要么是短期投机者，要么是不会看财报的。贝佐斯压根不在意短期利润，花了一大笔钱去抢占市场。这笔钱是计入开销的，一旦投资兑现，亚马逊就是第一个破万亿市值的公司。亚马逊想赚钱太容易了。我之前在英国的时候，市场占有率比淘宝在中国都高。

财报容易忽视的地方

2017-10-12

加仓好机会

$通用汽车(GM)$ 继续加仓吧

加仓好机会

2017-08-01

求给力

$苹果(AAPL)$ 重仓苹果啊求给力

2017-06-29

$Walgreens Boots Alliance(WBA)$ 马上发财报有人跟我一样赌call吗

2017-07-25

今天确认

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 看来还没调整到位

2017-07-20

机构吸货

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 每天都有亿元大单吸入或许将有一波大的趋势

2017-07-14

坚持看多

$英伟达(NVDA)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 多空分歧很大啊今晚充值信仰

2017-06-23

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 今晚是第三次冲击385历史最高点空军肯定死守一场大戏要开始我们拭目以待

2017-07-26

做多美光

$美光科技(MU)$ 基于大幅增长的内存需求年底看到38

2017-06-22

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 盘前打压疯狂抢筹中坐等飙升

2017-06-16

从A股新城转战港股

$新城发展控股(01030)$ 严重被低估

从A股新城转战港股

2017-08-14

亚马逊真强势

$亚马逊(AMZN)$ 我预计会调整到930位置，看来到不了了，犹豫要不要加仓

亚马逊真强势

2017-07-20

蓄势上攻

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 借大盘突破了吗

2017-07-26

京东爆发吧

$JD 20190118 60.0 CALL(JD)$ 还是你给力

京东爆发吧

2017-07-06

MARK一下

$QQQ 20170818 145.0 CALL(QQQ)$ MARK

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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18:57","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"港股「打新」投机指南","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189185732","media":"中环反向指标","summary":"\"Look,if you had one shot, one opportunity\n\n\nTo seize everything you ever wanted…One moment\n\n\nWould ","content":"<blockquote>\n <span>\"Look,if you had one shot, one opportunity</span>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <span>To seize everything you ever wanted…One moment</span>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <span>Would you capture it or just let it slip?\"</span>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <span>——《Lose&nbsp;Yourself》,Eminem</span>\n</blockquote>\n<p><span>先给结论，新股炒的是情绪，是供应，如果投资者过度看重基本面就已经输在了起跑线，有些时候甚至会不幸吃面。</span></p>\n<p><span>第一，&nbsp;新股讲究的是速战速决，除非是“流血上市”的优质公司，否则都不要保有低估的幻想。理由很简单，从博弈角度去审视IPO，投资者的对手盘正是对公司基本面最了解的大股东，所以大股东是很难吃亏的。</span></p>\n<p><span>因此，即使是优质公司的IPO，短期内你也只有可能赚估值泡沫的钱。</span></p>\n<p><span>按照索罗斯的说法，就是认清其假象，投入其中，然后在假象被公众认识之前退出游戏。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5498dfb2d61323a8734beb146398d12\"></p>\n<p><span>来源：网络</span></p>\n<p><span>第二，股票市场不是“if A，then B”的游戏，某些时候涨幅最为凌厉的新股，恰恰就是那些基本面最烂的；而基本面较为优异的，却令投资者大跌眼镜。</span></p>\n<p><span>这种情况下，多数时候都是流动性因素在作祟，投资者忽视或者错判。</span></p>\n<p><span>就短期而言，股价几乎是由供需关系决定。如果某股票在市场上流通盘极少，那么，仅仅需要少数资金就可以上演逆天表现。相反，如果某股票流通盘过多，那么碍于刚才所讲的估值因素，如果缺乏极其亢奋的情绪支撑，投资者预期就很容易产生动摇，从而导致股价承压。</span></p>\n<p><span>其次，投资者切记不要混淆流通盘跟市值的概念，市值大并不一定意味着流通盘市值也大。以2017年风光无限的众安保险（6060.HK）为例，众安上市时发行约1.99亿H股，其中7200万股由软银认购，因此，尽管公司IPO高达870亿港币，但实际落入散户流通盘比例按照规则仅为8.84%。</span></p>\n<p><span>来源：苹果日报；*表示禁售期为一年，软银为半年</span></p>\n<p><span>所以，最有炒作潜力的，莫过于投资者情绪高亢，同时流通盘极少的股票。</span></p>\n<p><span>因此，问题也就量化为，“怎么判断市场情绪？”和“怎么判断流动性？”。</span></p>\n<p><span>1. 怎么判断市场情绪？</span></p>\n<p><span>第一，&nbsp;看市场整体走势。如果我们把整个市场看成一个蓄水池，一旦资金如潮水般涌入市场，市场整体的估值中枢势必水涨船高。而且，这时候投资者风险偏好极高，对多数概念基本是来者不拒。</span></p>\n<p><span>据统计，2017年港股大牛市总共发行155只新股，除去11只仅以配售或者优先股方式进行的，总共有144只。开盘首日盈利的总共有102只，亏损的有42只，盈亏比2.4:1。最高盈利为173.9%，最大亏损为28%。所有的新股当天收益率平均值为76.2%。</span></p>\n<p><span>相反，如果市场凉凉，第一个死的，基本也就是概念炒作。</span></p>\n<p><span>第二，&nbsp;看行业前景。务须多言，“新经济”和“旧经济”字面意思就一目了然。</span></p>\n<p><span>拿近期全球火爆的人造肉为例，市场之所以疯狂炒作beyond meat，核心因素不在营业额，更加不在盈利，而是在于将来可以触及的市场规模，甚至因为商机太大，竞争对手的威胁也不用顾虑，长期都会是百花齐放，而且现在仅仅是起步阶段。</span></p>\n<p><span>事实上，数月前的大麻泡沫，即使不是新股，但逻辑根本一模一样，有很简单的理据去说明市场会持续发展，同时又是以市场规模去衡量估值。</span></p>\n<p><span>总言之，最好要足够“新”、足够“大”，令市场短期内根本无法证伪。</span></p>\n<p><span>第三，&nbsp;看管理层或基石投资者。很简单，如果有大佬或财技高手坐阵，自然会给到市场“公司要搞事情”的预期。</span></p>\n<p><span>最完美的，莫过于类似众安保险、希玛眼科等抱大腿剧情。</span></p>\n<p><span>补充多点，部分新股虽然管理层和基石投资者看似平平无奇，但是“独立非执行董事”却另有乾坤，究其原因，这些董事某种程度是“职业人头”，会不断出现在其他上市公司的名单中，所以吧，你懂的。</span></p>\n<p><span>2. 怎么判断流动性？</span></p>\n<p><span>新股在公开发售，会把发售股份数目分为两部分，一是公开发售部分，二是国际配售部分。通常比例都是1:9，即10%公开发售和90%国际配售。但是，如果公开发售部分出现超额认购的情况，就需要根据具体的认购热度而调整，即回拨机制。</span></p>\n<p><span>“如果超额认购多于15倍但少于50倍，回拨至公开发售的比例就是30%；</span></p>\n<p><span>如果超额认购多于50倍但少于100倍，回拨至公开发售的比例就是40%；</span></p>\n<p><span>如果超额认购多于100倍，回拨至公开发售的比例就是50%。”</span></p>\n<p><span>因此，从公开发售的认购热度，我们大致可以判断散户占总体发行量的比例，从而估算整只股票的流动性程度，以及炒作的可能性。</span></p>\n<p><span>如果没有产生回拨，那即是代表绝大多数流通股落入少数人手中，那么炒作也就更加容易。以近期星宇控股（2346.HK）为例，公开发售仅录得10.38倍的超额认购，导致背后筹码非常集中，首25名股东已持有公司逾90%股权，股权集中自然对股价有帮助，加上近期稀土概念，股价一度累涨近90%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/518158633bbb6ab443d16b24b8988917\"></p>\n<p><span>来源：公司公告</span></p>\n<p><b><span>相反，如果公开发售反应非常热烈，回拨的股份很多，那就要小心出现散户人踏人的事件。</span></b><span>很不幸，维亚生物（1873.HK）就是如此，公司公开发售获得超额认购约106.92倍，导致回拨比例飙至50%。再加定价高昂，自然是凉凉。</span></p>\n<p><span>另外，公开发售部分可认购的股票数量会平均分为甲、乙两组，并且这个比例是不会改变的，两者的区分是按认购新股的金额而定，所有认购额低于500万的归为甲组，高于500万的归为乙组。所以吧，如果某只股票没有产生超额回拨，同时又出现乙组大批量的大手笔，那显然是自己人了。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>这里科普下，新股上市前必须披露具体的募资概况，投资者可以登陆港交所官方网站「披露易」查询“发售价及配发结果公告”文件，其中就有对股权集中度、甲乙组认购概况进行披露。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>最后，就是“绿鞋”，即超额配售权，其目的主要是在股票上市后30日内稳定价格。根据定义，超额配售权可由独家牵头经办人及其代理代表包销商于上市日期开始至上市日期后第30日结束期间如何时间要求公司按配售价发现额外新股份，相当于根据配售初步可供认购股数的15%，以补足配售的超额分配。</span></p>\n<p><span>简单说，“绿鞋”是适量地稳定一段时间内的股票供应。而如果没有行使，即代表股票供应没有增加，根据简单的供需定义，股价是相对容易炒作的。</span></p>\n<p><span>当然，这已经是上市后的事情了。如果你缺乏足够程度的了解，最安全的方式，还是第一天就获利走人。</span></p>","source":"中环反向指标","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港股「打新」投机指南\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2019-07-02 18:57 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Jk5zWzG0BqkqAfrvX6IvoQ><strong>中环反向指标</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>\"Look,if you had one shot, one opportunity\n\n\nTo seize everything you ever wanted…One moment\n\n\nWould you capture it or just let it slip?\"\n\n\n——《Lose Yourself》,Eminem\n\n先给结论，新股炒的是情绪，是供应，如果投资者过度看重基本面就已经输在了...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Jk5zWzG0BqkqAfrvX6IvoQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5498dfb2d61323a8734beb146398d12","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Jk5zWzG0BqkqAfrvX6IvoQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189185732","content_text":"\"Look,if you had one shot, one opportunity\n\n\nTo seize everything you ever wanted…One moment\n\n\nWould you capture it or just let it slip?\"\n\n\n——《Lose Yourself》,Eminem\n\n先给结论，新股炒的是情绪，是供应，如果投资者过度看重基本面就已经输在了起跑线，有些时候甚至会不幸吃面。\n第一， 新股讲究的是速战速决，除非是“流血上市”的优质公司，否则都不要保有低估的幻想。理由很简单，从博弈角度去审视IPO，投资者的对手盘正是对公司基本面最了解的大股东，所以大股东是很难吃亏的。\n因此，即使是优质公司的IPO，短期内你也只有可能赚估值泡沫的钱。\n按照索罗斯的说法，就是认清其假象，投入其中，然后在假象被公众认识之前退出游戏。\n\n来源：网络\n第二，股票市场不是“if A，then B”的游戏，某些时候涨幅最为凌厉的新股，恰恰就是那些基本面最烂的；而基本面较为优异的，却令投资者大跌眼镜。\n这种情况下，多数时候都是流动性因素在作祟，投资者忽视或者错判。\n就短期而言，股价几乎是由供需关系决定。如果某股票在市场上流通盘极少，那么，仅仅需要少数资金就可以上演逆天表现。相反，如果某股票流通盘过多，那么碍于刚才所讲的估值因素，如果缺乏极其亢奋的情绪支撑，投资者预期就很容易产生动摇，从而导致股价承压。\n其次，投资者切记不要混淆流通盘跟市值的概念，市值大并不一定意味着流通盘市值也大。以2017年风光无限的众安保险（6060.HK）为例，众安上市时发行约1.99亿H股，其中7200万股由软银认购，因此，尽管公司IPO高达870亿港币，但实际落入散户流通盘比例按照规则仅为8.84%。\n来源：苹果日报；*表示禁售期为一年，软银为半年\n所以，最有炒作潜力的，莫过于投资者情绪高亢，同时流通盘极少的股票。\n因此，问题也就量化为，“怎么判断市场情绪？”和“怎么判断流动性？”。\n1. 怎么判断市场情绪？\n第一， 看市场整体走势。如果我们把整个市场看成一个蓄水池，一旦资金如潮水般涌入市场，市场整体的估值中枢势必水涨船高。而且，这时候投资者风险偏好极高，对多数概念基本是来者不拒。\n据统计，2017年港股大牛市总共发行155只新股，除去11只仅以配售或者优先股方式进行的，总共有144只。开盘首日盈利的总共有102只，亏损的有42只，盈亏比2.4:1。最高盈利为173.9%，最大亏损为28%。所有的新股当天收益率平均值为76.2%。\n相反，如果市场凉凉，第一个死的，基本也就是概念炒作。\n第二， 看行业前景。务须多言，“新经济”和“旧经济”字面意思就一目了然。\n拿近期全球火爆的人造肉为例，市场之所以疯狂炒作beyond meat，核心因素不在营业额，更加不在盈利，而是在于将来可以触及的市场规模，甚至因为商机太大，竞争对手的威胁也不用顾虑，长期都会是百花齐放，而且现在仅仅是起步阶段。\n事实上，数月前的大麻泡沫，即使不是新股，但逻辑根本一模一样，有很简单的理据去说明市场会持续发展，同时又是以市场规模去衡量估值。\n总言之，最好要足够“新”、足够“大”，令市场短期内根本无法证伪。\n第三， 看管理层或基石投资者。很简单，如果有大佬或财技高手坐阵，自然会给到市场“公司要搞事情”的预期。\n最完美的，莫过于类似众安保险、希玛眼科等抱大腿剧情。\n补充多点，部分新股虽然管理层和基石投资者看似平平无奇，但是“独立非执行董事”却另有乾坤，究其原因，这些董事某种程度是“职业人头”，会不断出现在其他上市公司的名单中，所以吧，你懂的。\n2. 怎么判断流动性？\n新股在公开发售，会把发售股份数目分为两部分，一是公开发售部分，二是国际配售部分。通常比例都是1:9，即10%公开发售和90%国际配售。但是，如果公开发售部分出现超额认购的情况，就需要根据具体的认购热度而调整，即回拨机制。\n“如果超额认购多于15倍但少于50倍，回拨至公开发售的比例就是30%；\n如果超额认购多于50倍但少于100倍，回拨至公开发售的比例就是40%；\n如果超额认购多于100倍，回拨至公开发售的比例就是50%。”\n因此，从公开发售的认购热度，我们大致可以判断散户占总体发行量的比例，从而估算整只股票的流动性程度，以及炒作的可能性。\n如果没有产生回拨，那即是代表绝大多数流通股落入少数人手中，那么炒作也就更加容易。以近期星宇控股（2346.HK）为例，公开发售仅录得10.38倍的超额认购，导致背后筹码非常集中，首25名股东已持有公司逾90%股权，股权集中自然对股价有帮助，加上近期稀土概念，股价一度累涨近90%。\n\n来源：公司公告\n相反，如果公开发售反应非常热烈，回拨的股份很多，那就要小心出现散户人踏人的事件。很不幸，维亚生物（1873.HK）就是如此，公司公开发售获得超额认购约106.92倍，导致回拨比例飙至50%。再加定价高昂，自然是凉凉。\n另外，公开发售部分可认购的股票数量会平均分为甲、乙两组，并且这个比例是不会改变的，两者的区分是按认购新股的金额而定，所有认购额低于500万的归为甲组，高于500万的归为乙组。所以吧，如果某只股票没有产生超额回拨，同时又出现乙组大批量的大手笔，那显然是自己人了。\n这里科普下，新股上市前必须披露具体的募资概况，投资者可以登陆港交所官方网站「披露易」查询“发售价及配发结果公告”文件，其中就有对股权集中度、甲乙组认购概况进行披露。\n最后，就是“绿鞋”，即超额配售权，其目的主要是在股票上市后30日内稳定价格。根据定义，超额配售权可由独家牵头经办人及其代理代表包销商于上市日期开始至上市日期后第30日结束期间如何时间要求公司按配售价发现额外新股份，相当于根据配售初步可供认购股数的15%，以补足配售的超额分配。\n简单说，“绿鞋”是适量地稳定一段时间内的股票供应。而如果没有行使，即代表股票供应没有增加，根据简单的供需定义，股价是相对容易炒作的。\n当然，这已经是上市后的事情了。如果你缺乏足够程度的了解，最安全的方式，还是第一天就获利走人。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":990055161,"gmtCreate":1562126960853,"gmtModify":1704703238839,"author":{"id":"277036309726222","authorId":"277036309726222","name":"AXE_CAPTIAL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/138b91c39560a82bc91237ddf0704d23","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/990055161","repostId":"1189185732","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":130677,"gmtCreate":1513085669348,"gmtModify":1704885675882,"author":{"id":"277036309726222","authorId":"277036309726222","name":"AXE_CAPTIAL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/138b91c39560a82bc91237ddf0704d23","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"潜伏","htmlText":"$DowDuPont 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