瓯人的个人主页 - 老虎社区

瓯人

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IP属地：浙江

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0勋章

2016-07-11

$京东(JD)$ 7月6日证监会批复允许京东再发债30亿为什么没媒体公布啊4月京东发债10亿的时候貌似跌了8%

2016-07-28

$Facebook(FB)$ 妈的日了狗猜对反而亏了😂期权掉价好快

2016-07-01

$百度(BIDU)$ 谁在托盘啊

2016-06-25

$京东(JD)$ 京东一个 9000万的成交量是什么鬼？相当于20亿美金

2016-07-02

$京东(JD)$ 京东这条线走的好平几个小时基本控制价格均线21.3

2016-06-30

$诺亚财富(NOAH)$ 5000万回购都没人盘前买么？？这股有多吓人？？

2016-07-08

$百度(BIDU)$ 我来讲解一下野村证券下调百度目标价位到160老外只看人家的评级 😭😭所以大跌了其实我想说今天刚出台的互联网广告办法他们根本不看

2016-06-14

$钜派投资(JP)$ 僵尸股能做空么？

2020-09-02

$蓝城兄弟(BLCT)$印度禁用中国180款app 蓝城还得跌吧

2016-07-11

$京东(JD)$ 谁知道这波拉升是怎么回事啊？破4% 总要有点理由吧

2016-06-23

$京东(JD)$这曲线走的好任性😂

2016-07-01

$京东(JD)$ 又来了么默默吸筹的那个谁谁谁

2016-06-24

人民日报6月24号文关于竞价排名

人民日报 6月24日发文标题《竞价排名，给钱就上吗？》其实个人觉得魏泽西还有很多.除了医疗搜索死的，还会有理财的，外汇的，网赌的，各种百度搜索受骗死法。骗子的竞价排名出价总是最高的。死的人多了，腾讯阿里系也会作势落井下石。做空百度😂$(BIDU)$

人民日报6月24号文关于竞价排名

2016-06-23

$京东(JD)$ 谁知道昨天下半夜那波上涨是什么回事啊交易量可以，吓死宝宝这空头了

2016-07-14

$Line Corp(LN)$ 感觉不行啊

2016-07-01

$标普500指数ETF(SPY)$ t+0用了三次了不能加仓了怎么解啊？找客服能解么不是不到4次都没关系呢？

2016-06-28

$Twilio Inc(TWLO)$ 盘前就疯了

2016-08-26

$Pure Storage Inc(PSTG)$ 昨天挂了call的现价买单就睡觉了居然没买入😂 又损失了一个亿

2020-06-16

$跟谁学(GSX)$拉总上班啦

2020-06-10

$跟谁学(GSX)$拉总重上40

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"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":971715638,"gmtCreate":1599051878024,"gmtModify":1704221239914,"author":{"id":"202519677531627","authorId":"202519677531627","name":"瓯人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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蓝城还得跌吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/971715638","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":940098283,"gmtCreate":1593603440142,"gmtModify":1704202509140,"author":{"id":"202519677531627","authorId":"202519677531627","name":"瓯人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"人血馒头公司。看看各种搜索结果，就知道不会有根性的变化的","listText":"人血馒头公司。看看各种搜索结果，就知道不会有根性的变化的","text":"人血馒头公司。看看各种搜索结果，就知道不会有根性的变化的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/940098283","repostId":"2044534563","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2044534563","pubTimestamp":1592571701,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2044534563?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-06-19 21:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"京东网易香港挂牌上市，百度还在等什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2044534563","media":"富途资讯","summary":"京东一年一度的店庆之日叠加在港交所二次上市，6月18日是京东的主场。以昨日收盘价计算，京东市值933亿美元，较发行价上涨3.54%。京东在美股的股价今年以来也一路飙升，今年以来累计已经上涨76%，达到","content":"<html><body><article><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>一年一度的店庆之日叠加在港交所二次上市，6月18日是京东的主场。</p><p>以昨日收盘价计算，京东市值933亿美元，较发行价上涨3.54%。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200619210142195v246em7h2qn6wnc\"/><p>京东在美股的股价今年以来也一路飙升，今年以来累计已经上涨76%，达到了上市以来的最高点，是2014年上市时市值的3倍多。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200619210143036v246tf81a6ip386\"/><p>数据显示，京东是今年以来港交所最大规模的新股发行。根据公告，京东此次香港公开发售合计认购11.9亿股，相当于香港公开发售原计划的近180倍。</p><p>自此，阿里、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>、京东齐聚港交所， 「回家」已经成为中概股2020年的主旋律。<strong>一、</strong><strong>中概回归的投资盛宴</strong></p><p>这波轰轰烈烈的中概股回归浪潮始于阿里。</p><p>去年是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>的第20周年，在港交所现场，阿里巴巴集团董事局主席兼首席执行官张勇表示，「在20岁生日之际，我们迎来了一个重要的里程碑，就是‘回家’，回香港上市」。</p><p>2019年11月26日，二次上市的阿里的确给投资者带来不错的回报。</p><p>阿里巴巴港股上市后，首日涨幅6.59%，中签者一手可以赚超过1000港元，而如果继续持有一个多月的时间，阿里巴巴股价最高涨至227.4港元，相比发行价176港元，涨幅近30%。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200619210143397v246lguc90b7j4a\"/><p>（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>港股上市后股价走势）</p><p>阿里巴巴成功的二次上市起到了领头羊的作用，中概回归的打新赚钱效应点燃了投资者的热情，市场不断憧憬有更多的中概股回港二次上市。</p><p>2020年4月，瑞幸事件爆发，在美上市的中概股三面「受敌」，面临美国监管层、交易所、国会参议院的监管，相关措施甚至可能会导致中概股的财务审计不能满足监管要求而被停止在美国市场交易。</p><p>自此，中概股回归开启了加速进程。</p><p>2020年6月11日，网易回归香港，相比于阿里回港二次上市时的一手中签率80%，公开发售超购倍数42倍，公开发售认购人数20万，此次网易二次上市投资者预期更加火爆。网易一手中签率8%，公开发售超购倍数360倍，公开发售认购人数37万，上市首日涨幅5.69%。</p><p>6月18，京东在港二次上市，公开发售超购倍数180倍，公开发售认购人数39万，上市首日日涨幅3.54%。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200619210144721v2466c2v43nxbjw\"/><p>（阿里、网易和京东回港二次上市招股信息）</p><p>事实证明，中概股回归浪潮不可逆，唯有拥抱。随着认购人数创下新高，投资者已逐渐认识到其中的投资机会。</p><p>背后的逻辑有两方面：</p><p><strong>第一，市场情绪。</strong>本身在美上市的大型互联网科技中概股，基本面都比较扎实，群众基础也都很好，它们的回归备受期待，再加上打新的赚钱效应，市场情绪往往都很高涨。</p><p><strong>第二，估值提升。</strong>相比国外投资者，国内投资者更加熟悉与认可中概股的公司，这些公司往往在美上市被低估，回来后会有一个估值回归的过程。其次，部分中概股有可能被纳入港股通标的，估值还可能获得进一步提升。</p><p>例如我们看美股上市网易股价变动，回港上市前股价涨幅近30%，而由于网易在美股估值（18倍PE）一直较低，回港后有可能进一步估值得到提升。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200619210146020v246j312iem8jzb\"/><p>阿里、网易、京东的接连上市，为这波中概股回归的投资盛宴开了一个好兆头，对于投资者来说，思考接下来的投资布局是当务之急。</p><p>现如今有哪些中概股满足回归条件？</p><p>根据港交所的规定，二次上市公司必须在包括英美市场上市并至少保持两年良好合规记录，其次市值不低于400亿港元，或市值不少于100亿港元但最近一年收益至少10亿港元。</p><p>截至今年5月底，满足港交所条件、可申请二次上市的中概股共有36家。另有其他一些因业绩披露不足两年，或在2017年12月15日之后才上市的公司（须修改组织章程文件，符合联交所VIE和不同投票权的相关规定），比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>等，如果它们想回来，还需要等一段时间。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200619210146752v246p7sksmvl0ng\"/><p>（数据来源：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36氪</a>）</p><p>那么，京东、网易之后，下一个最受期待的标的是什么？</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>。</strong></p><p>在所有符合条件回港上市的标的中，百度无论是市值、知名度还是估值，都是最诱人的，并且回归后它是港股里唯一纯正的人工<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>股。</p><p>百度回归，也是价值的回归，相比于其他中概股，低估的百度有可能迎来一次估值的飞跃。<strong>二、百度到底被低估了多少？</strong></p><p>目前，百度市值400亿美金，2020Q1业绩后股价触底，开始缓慢回升。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200619210147312v246tm4vx8wzzpq\"/><p>（百度股价近期走势）</p><p>那么，作为国内最大的搜索引擎厂商以及最有潜力的AI公司，百度价值几何？</p><p><strong>1</strong><strong>）DCF模型，百度被低估了45%？</strong></p><p>一家国外技术流的金融分析机构Simply Wall St发布研究报告称，百度的市值应该在5200亿元人民币，折合美元约732.4亿美元，这比百度目前市值400亿美元高了超过80%。</p><p>Simply Wall St使用两阶段DCF模型，即具体将未来现金流增长速度分为两个不同阶段。第一阶段是高速增长期，即快速增长接近终值，随后进入第二阶段——稳定增长期。</p><p>结论是，高速增长期+稳定增长期的现值相加：2470亿元+ 2730亿元=5200亿元人民币。</p><p><strong>2</strong><strong>）分部估值1035亿美元，相比当前市值溢价159%</strong></p><p>采用分部估值方法，下面我们看百度各分部业务情况：</p><p>1、百度核心</p><p>近一年来，百度核心业务盈利能力快速修复，2020Q1百度核心业务的调整后归母净利率达29.6%，相较2019年全年28.6%的水平提升1%，与利润巅峰时期的2018年一季度的33%也基本接近。在广告行业整体受到疫情影响，百度广告业务（扣除爱奇艺）同比减少18%左右的背景下，百度核心业务的盈利能力快速修复彰显业务韧性，预计全年盈利能力将持续提升。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200619210147946v2461nyckwk7tk5\"/><p>首先，从核心搜索广告业务来看，百度2019年核心广告业务收入约700亿元。根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>等投行预测显示，2020年百度核心搜索广告业务将与2019年持平，并在2021年恢复到16%的增速。该增速水平与百度核心搜索广告业务2018年的增速大体相当。值得一提的是，百度2018年核心业务的净利率表现优于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>搜索。<strong>当前市场给予谷歌19倍估值，百度搜索业务按照12倍估值算，搜索业务估值约为480亿美金。</strong></p><p>百度云业务在中国云计算业务中位列第一梯队，也在2019年保持着两位数的增长。据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">交银国际</a>预计百度云2019年收入约70亿元，高盛预计百度云业务2020年Q1收入约16亿元。目前，在美股上市的独立云计算公司只有金山云，目前市值为46亿美元。对比来看，2019年金山云收入39.56亿元。如果按金山云上市的估值参考计算，百度云2019年营收/金山云2019年营收*金山云市值，<strong>百度云估值应该在80亿美元左右。</strong></p><p>小度智能设备及小度助手业务是百度AI新业务中的明星产品。李彦宏在百度财报电话会上也表示「我们在小度智能设备上看到了令人备受鼓舞的盈利早期迹象」。但是在高盛、86证券等分析师的估值中，小度智能设备及小度助手业务却常常被忽视。参考同类型的Fitbit估值，2019年谷歌曾宣布以21亿美元的价格收购Fitbit。百度拥有全球领先的互动式人工智能交互系统度秘以及全球销量第一的带屏音箱产品，<strong>我们保守估计小度智能设备及小度助手业务值得35亿美元估值。</strong></p><p>百度Apollo估值可对标同行业的自动驾驶公司来看。2017 年百度内部对 Apollo 的预期，在百度市值里起码占「 200 亿美金。」作为参照，2017 年 3 月——几乎在同一时期，Mobieye 被<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>以 153 亿美元收购。而从谷歌独立出来的自动驾驶公司 Waymo，当时摩根斯坦利给出的估值是 700 亿美元（如今给出的估值高达 1750 亿美元），Apollo 的估值甚至可能要提高到 150-200亿美元甚至更高。</p><p>2、爱奇艺</p><p>当前百度持有爱奇艺56%的股份，爱奇艺目前市值140亿美元，百度持有部分对应市值78.4亿美金。</p><p>3、携程</p><p>当前百度持有携程12%的股份，携程目前市值160亿美元，百度持有部分对应市值19.2亿美金。</p><p>4、现金及等价物</p><p>截止2020Q1，不考虑爱奇艺现金部分，百度现金及等价物达到1367亿元，对应193亿美元。</p><p>综上所述，百度核心估值约745亿美元，再加上持股爱奇艺，携程等长期投资和现金，百度整体估值约为1035亿美元，相比目前400亿的市值溢价159%。<strong>三、百度基本面出现积极信号，边际改善可期</strong></p><p>如果以未来视角回看2020年上半年，很多疫情中的机遇其实为科技公司的发展埋下了伏笔。百度2020年第一季度财报有一个信号是，多元化收入结构逐渐显现。2015年，百度营收中约有95%来自大搜业务的广告收入，2019年在线广告收入（含爱奇艺）占营收比重72.7%，2020年Q1该数据进一步下降到63%，与此同时包含AI新业务在内的其他收入占比提升至37%。</p><p>2020年上半年，百度基本面上有两个值得关注的变化。</p><p><strong>其一，占据用户，补齐能力，移动生态在中国经济全面复苏前抢占了有利地形；其二，政府力推新基建，AI产业化趋势加速成为百度科技突破开启新周期的抓手。</strong></p><p>中国用户搜索行为从浏览器搜索转向端内搜索，后者目前占据了百度的大部分移动搜索流量。据百度高管在财报电话会上透露，端内搜索利润率更高，第一季度，受疫情影响百度核心营收下降，但百度APP收入却保持同比增长，百度APP的边际收益在不断增加。</p><p>财报显示， 2020年3月，百度App日活跃用户数达到2.22亿，同比增长28%；App端内搜索量同比增长45%，信息流用户时长同比增长51%。得益于端内搜索更好的用户体验，百度App的登录用户已经增加到近60%。强劲的流量和用户基础，是百度核心广告业务的变现潜力。</p><p>与此同时，百度<strong>移动生态也在聚焦，补短板——</strong>本地生活服务、直播带货等多元变现能力逐步展现。过去，百度一直在连接人和信息，但是这种连接是极其脆弱的，用户在百度搜索完信息之后，就可以转移去其他平台，这导致用户留在百度的时间极其有限。如今，连接人和服务，成了百度今年重要的发力点。</p><p>在人工智能新业务方面，疫情期间，各式AI能力加持的设备产品应用，推动人工智能最大化的加速落地。百度「其他收入」在疫情中的大幅增长，让人们看到百度的新变化和新动能——AI科技。</p><p>2020年4月，百度Apollo首次发布「ACE交通引擎」，打造出了国内外第一个车路行融合的全栈式智能交通解决方案。在新基建的利好下，百度智能交通仅在5月份就有20多场的签约，拿下多个千万大单。</p><p>其中，重庆永川区「西部自动驾驶开放测试基地」建设项目金额为5280万元，百度作为国内唯一具备自动驾驶车、路、云、图全栈能力的公司，入选该项目的单一采购供应商。</p><p>除此之外，在国家电网投资247亿元发力「数字新基建」的重点项目中，百度也与阿里、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、华为一道成为重要战略合作伙伴。<strong>结语</strong></p><p>一场中概回归的盛宴已然开启，阿里、京东、网易为投资们开了个很好的头，接下来，就看最受期待的百度能不能顺利接下这一棒了。</p><p>从数据上看，百度最悲观的时刻已经过去，未来趋势向上。从机构持仓看，市场先生也正在用脚投票，2020年一季度获得一众国外的机构增持。2020年一季度<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">黑石</a>基金买入131万股百度，占比3.82%，是买入最多的机构；RIMECAP基金增持72万股，STATE STREET增持65万股，知名基金Baillie Gifford增持52万股，RENAISSANCE增持38万股......</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200619210149583v246u9r3l789qkf\"/><p>（2020年一季度末最新机构持股）</p><p>百度回归，不仅仅是一次二次上市，更是一次让国内投资者重新发现其价值的机会，百度重估已在途中。</p><p>编辑/Iris</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>京东网易香港挂牌上市，百度还在等什么？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n京东网易香港挂牌上市，百度还在等什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-06-19 21:01 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202006192102187a8230a4&s=b><strong>富途资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>京东一年一度的店庆之日叠加在港交所二次上市，6月18日是京东的主场。以昨日收盘价计算，京东市值933亿美元，较发行价上涨3.54%。京东在美股的股价今年以来也一路飙升，今年以来累计已经上涨76%，达到了上市以来的最高点，是2014年上市时市值的3倍多。数据显示，京东是今年以来港交所最大规模的新股发行。根据公告，京东此次香港公开发售合计认购11.9亿股，相当于香港公开发售原计划的近180倍。自此，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202006192102187a8230a4&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79b711513c169934e01f1d8bdaae6fad","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","09999":"网易-S","JD":"京东","BIDU":"百度","NTES":"网易"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202006192102187a8230a4&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2044534563","content_text":"京东一年一度的店庆之日叠加在港交所二次上市，6月18日是京东的主场。以昨日收盘价计算，京东市值933亿美元，较发行价上涨3.54%。京东在美股的股价今年以来也一路飙升，今年以来累计已经上涨76%，达到了上市以来的最高点，是2014年上市时市值的3倍多。数据显示，京东是今年以来港交所最大规模的新股发行。根据公告，京东此次香港公开发售合计认购11.9亿股，相当于香港公开发售原计划的近180倍。自此，阿里、网易、京东齐聚港交所， 「回家」已经成为中概股2020年的主旋律。一、中概回归的投资盛宴这波轰轰烈烈的中概股回归浪潮始于阿里。去年是阿里巴巴的第20周年，在港交所现场，阿里巴巴集团董事局主席兼首席执行官张勇表示，「在20岁生日之际，我们迎来了一个重要的里程碑，就是‘回家’，回香港上市」。2019年11月26日，二次上市的阿里的确给投资者带来不错的回报。阿里巴巴港股上市后，首日涨幅6.59%，中签者一手可以赚超过1000港元，而如果继续持有一个多月的时间，阿里巴巴股价最高涨至227.4港元，相比发行价176港元，涨幅近30%。（阿里巴巴-SW港股上市后股价走势）阿里巴巴成功的二次上市起到了领头羊的作用，中概回归的打新赚钱效应点燃了投资者的热情，市场不断憧憬有更多的中概股回港二次上市。2020年4月，瑞幸事件爆发，在美上市的中概股三面「受敌」，面临美国监管层、交易所、国会参议院的监管，相关措施甚至可能会导致中概股的财务审计不能满足监管要求而被停止在美国市场交易。自此，中概股回归开启了加速进程。2020年6月11日，网易回归香港，相比于阿里回港二次上市时的一手中签率80%，公开发售超购倍数42倍，公开发售认购人数20万，此次网易二次上市投资者预期更加火爆。网易一手中签率8%，公开发售超购倍数360倍，公开发售认购人数37万，上市首日涨幅5.69%。6月18，京东在港二次上市，公开发售超购倍数180倍，公开发售认购人数39万，上市首日日涨幅3.54%。（阿里、网易和京东回港二次上市招股信息）事实证明，中概股回归浪潮不可逆，唯有拥抱。随着认购人数创下新高，投资者已逐渐认识到其中的投资机会。背后的逻辑有两方面：第一，市场情绪。本身在美上市的大型互联网科技中概股，基本面都比较扎实，群众基础也都很好，它们的回归备受期待，再加上打新的赚钱效应，市场情绪往往都很高涨。第二，估值提升。相比国外投资者，国内投资者更加熟悉与认可中概股的公司，这些公司往往在美上市被低估，回来后会有一个估值回归的过程。其次，部分中概股有可能被纳入港股通标的，估值还可能获得进一步提升。例如我们看美股上市网易股价变动，回港上市前股价涨幅近30%，而由于网易在美股估值（18倍PE）一直较低，回港后有可能进一步估值得到提升。阿里、网易、京东的接连上市，为这波中概股回归的投资盛宴开了一个好兆头，对于投资者来说，思考接下来的投资布局是当务之急。现如今有哪些中概股满足回归条件？根据港交所的规定，二次上市公司必须在包括英美市场上市并至少保持两年良好合规记录，其次市值不低于400亿港元，或市值不少于100亿港元但最近一年收益至少10亿港元。截至今年5月底，满足港交所条件、可申请二次上市的中概股共有36家。另有其他一些因业绩披露不足两年，或在2017年12月15日之后才上市的公司（须修改组织章程文件，符合联交所VIE和不同投票权的相关规定），比如拼多多、哔哩哔哩、爱奇艺、腾讯音乐等，如果它们想回来，还需要等一段时间。（数据来源：36氪）那么，京东、网易之后，下一个最受期待的标的是什么？百度。在所有符合条件回港上市的标的中，百度无论是市值、知名度还是估值，都是最诱人的，并且回归后它是港股里唯一纯正的人工智能股。百度回归，也是价值的回归，相比于其他中概股，低估的百度有可能迎来一次估值的飞跃。二、百度到底被低估了多少？目前，百度市值400亿美金，2020Q1业绩后股价触底，开始缓慢回升。（百度股价近期走势）那么，作为国内最大的搜索引擎厂商以及最有潜力的AI公司，百度价值几何？1）DCF模型，百度被低估了45%？一家国外技术流的金融分析机构Simply Wall St发布研究报告称，百度的市值应该在5200亿元人民币，折合美元约732.4亿美元，这比百度目前市值400亿美元高了超过80%。Simply Wall St使用两阶段DCF模型，即具体将未来现金流增长速度分为两个不同阶段。第一阶段是高速增长期，即快速增长接近终值，随后进入第二阶段——稳定增长期。结论是，高速增长期+稳定增长期的现值相加：2470亿元+ 2730亿元=5200亿元人民币。2）分部估值1035亿美元，相比当前市值溢价159%采用分部估值方法，下面我们看百度各分部业务情况：1、百度核心近一年来，百度核心业务盈利能力快速修复，2020Q1百度核心业务的调整后归母净利率达29.6%，相较2019年全年28.6%的水平提升1%，与利润巅峰时期的2018年一季度的33%也基本接近。在广告行业整体受到疫情影响，百度广告业务（扣除爱奇艺）同比减少18%左右的背景下，百度核心业务的盈利能力快速修复彰显业务韧性，预计全年盈利能力将持续提升。首先，从核心搜索广告业务来看，百度2019年核心广告业务收入约700亿元。根据高盛等投行预测显示，2020年百度核心搜索广告业务将与2019年持平，并在2021年恢复到16%的增速。该增速水平与百度核心搜索广告业务2018年的增速大体相当。值得一提的是，百度2018年核心业务的净利率表现优于谷歌搜索。当前市场给予谷歌19倍估值，百度搜索业务按照12倍估值算，搜索业务估值约为480亿美金。百度云业务在中国云计算业务中位列第一梯队，也在2019年保持着两位数的增长。据交银国际预计百度云2019年收入约70亿元，高盛预计百度云业务2020年Q1收入约16亿元。目前，在美股上市的独立云计算公司只有金山云，目前市值为46亿美元。对比来看，2019年金山云收入39.56亿元。如果按金山云上市的估值参考计算，百度云2019年营收/金山云2019年营收*金山云市值，百度云估值应该在80亿美元左右。小度智能设备及小度助手业务是百度AI新业务中的明星产品。李彦宏在百度财报电话会上也表示「我们在小度智能设备上看到了令人备受鼓舞的盈利早期迹象」。但是在高盛、86证券等分析师的估值中，小度智能设备及小度助手业务却常常被忽视。参考同类型的Fitbit估值，2019年谷歌曾宣布以21亿美元的价格收购Fitbit。百度拥有全球领先的互动式人工智能交互系统度秘以及全球销量第一的带屏音箱产品，我们保守估计小度智能设备及小度助手业务值得35亿美元估值。百度Apollo估值可对标同行业的自动驾驶公司来看。2017 年百度内部对 Apollo 的预期，在百度市值里起码占「 200 亿美金。」作为参照，2017 年 3 月——几乎在同一时期，Mobieye 被英特尔以 153 亿美元收购。而从谷歌独立出来的自动驾驶公司 Waymo，当时摩根斯坦利给出的估值是 700 亿美元（如今给出的估值高达 1750 亿美元），Apollo 的估值甚至可能要提高到 150-200亿美元甚至更高。2、爱奇艺当前百度持有爱奇艺56%的股份，爱奇艺目前市值140亿美元，百度持有部分对应市值78.4亿美金。3、携程当前百度持有携程12%的股份，携程目前市值160亿美元，百度持有部分对应市值19.2亿美金。4、现金及等价物截止2020Q1，不考虑爱奇艺现金部分，百度现金及等价物达到1367亿元，对应193亿美元。综上所述，百度核心估值约745亿美元，再加上持股爱奇艺，携程等长期投资和现金，百度整体估值约为1035亿美元，相比目前400亿的市值溢价159%。三、百度基本面出现积极信号，边际改善可期如果以未来视角回看2020年上半年，很多疫情中的机遇其实为科技公司的发展埋下了伏笔。百度2020年第一季度财报有一个信号是，多元化收入结构逐渐显现。2015年，百度营收中约有95%来自大搜业务的广告收入，2019年在线广告收入（含爱奇艺）占营收比重72.7%，2020年Q1该数据进一步下降到63%，与此同时包含AI新业务在内的其他收入占比提升至37%。2020年上半年，百度基本面上有两个值得关注的变化。其一，占据用户，补齐能力，移动生态在中国经济全面复苏前抢占了有利地形；其二，政府力推新基建，AI产业化趋势加速成为百度科技突破开启新周期的抓手。中国用户搜索行为从浏览器搜索转向端内搜索，后者目前占据了百度的大部分移动搜索流量。据百度高管在财报电话会上透露，端内搜索利润率更高，第一季度，受疫情影响百度核心营收下降，但百度APP收入却保持同比增长，百度APP的边际收益在不断增加。财报显示， 2020年3月，百度App日活跃用户数达到2.22亿，同比增长28%；App端内搜索量同比增长45%，信息流用户时长同比增长51%。得益于端内搜索更好的用户体验，百度App的登录用户已经增加到近60%。强劲的流量和用户基础，是百度核心广告业务的变现潜力。与此同时，百度移动生态也在聚焦，补短板——本地生活服务、直播带货等多元变现能力逐步展现。过去，百度一直在连接人和信息，但是这种连接是极其脆弱的，用户在百度搜索完信息之后，就可以转移去其他平台，这导致用户留在百度的时间极其有限。如今，连接人和服务，成了百度今年重要的发力点。在人工智能新业务方面，疫情期间，各式AI能力加持的设备产品应用，推动人工智能最大化的加速落地。百度「其他收入」在疫情中的大幅增长，让人们看到百度的新变化和新动能——AI科技。2020年4月，百度Apollo首次发布「ACE交通引擎」，打造出了国内外第一个车路行融合的全栈式智能交通解决方案。在新基建的利好下，百度智能交通仅在5月份就有20多场的签约，拿下多个千万大单。其中，重庆永川区「西部自动驾驶开放测试基地」建设项目金额为5280万元，百度作为国内唯一具备自动驾驶车、路、云、图全栈能力的公司，入选该项目的单一采购供应商。除此之外，在国家电网投资247亿元发力「数字新基建」的重点项目中，百度也与阿里、腾讯、华为一道成为重要战略合作伙伴。结语一场中概回归的盛宴已然开启，阿里、京东、网易为投资们开了个很好的头，接下来，就看最受期待的百度能不能顺利接下这一棒了。从数据上看，百度最悲观的时刻已经过去，未来趋势向上。从机构持仓看，市场先生也正在用脚投票，2020年一季度获得一众国外的机构增持。2020年一季度黑石基金买入131万股百度，占比3.82%，是买入最多的机构；RIMECAP基金增持72万股，STATE STREET增持65万股，知名基金Baillie 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