反套路的个人主页 - 老虎社区

反套路

反套路

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IP属地：北京

52关注

7粉丝

1主题

0勋章

2017-05-22

$猎豹移动(CMCM)$盘前8%涨幅...

2016-06-01

老虎期权买卖出问题

$微博(WB)$ 准备空，但是期权没数据，交易不了了

老虎期权买卖出问题

2016-05-19

$ZAIS Group Holdings, Inc.(ZAIS)$有人探讨一下吗

2017-11-17

加仓

$百度(BIDU)$百度最近真的是全靠陆奇

2016-11-07

6入。$LendingClub(LC)$

2020-03-20

$优步(UBER)$2天不到

2018-03-16

$微博(WB)$ 要跌了，手机上使用时长都被头条抢走了，没机会了

2017-04-11

看了陆奇对百度的规划还是非常清晰的

$百度(BIDU)$看了陆奇对百度的规划还是非常清晰的，重拾信心，长期中期看多

看了陆奇对百度的规划还是非常清晰的

2017-06-20

$旅行顾问(TRIP)$36.50入手，等反弹n

2017-03-29

$搜房网(SFUN)$财报应该还不错，结果今天撞枪口上了。

2016-04-29

抄底咯

$Qiwi plc(QIWI)$抄底咯

2021-05-27

$名创优品(MNSO)$为啥跌

2018-08-02

$百度(BIDU)$ 因该是被套路了，放消息的早就买满了看跌期权

2017-06-26

$猎豹移动(CMCM)$市值搞错了吧，只有1.5亿什么鬼

2017-06-14

$58同城(WUBA)$30以下比较合适，短期估计来一波低谷

2016-11-14

$LendingClub(LC)$看多LC，看空微博都赌对了

2016-10-24

$微博(WB)$今晚各位怎么看

2021-01-25

$36氪(KRKR)$被低估了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/7x24/2022-02-16/doc-ikyakumy6206448.shtml><strong>媒体滚动</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>从傲慢上市到黯然裁员，滴滴市值蒸发七成的同时，业务已迎来全面调整。值得一提的是，滴滴裁撤中的橙心优选曾经也是被资本簇拥前行的代表，成为拼多多、阿里、美团大力布局的板块。如今，各大平台对于社区团购业务的布局更显谨慎。面对多重监管，滴滴不是第一个，也不是最后一个，互联网平台企业利用资本无序扩张的时代已经结束。 截至记者发稿前，滴滴美股最近一个交易日（2月14日）的收盘价为4.28美元，总市值约为202...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/7x24/2022-02-16/doc-ikyakumy6206448.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4022":"陆运","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","BK4539":"次新股"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/7x24/2022-02-16/doc-ikyakumy6206448.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2212640476","content_text":"从傲慢上市到黯然裁员，滴滴市值蒸发七成的同时，业务已迎来全面调整。值得一提的是，滴滴裁撤中的橙心优选曾经也是被资本簇拥前行的代表，成为拼多多、阿里、美团大力布局的板块。如今，各大平台对于社区团购业务的布局更显谨慎。面对多重监管，滴滴不是第一个，也不是最后一个，互联网平台企业利用资本无序扩张的时代已经结束。 截至记者发稿前，滴滴美股最近一个交易日（2月14日）的收盘价为4.28美元，总市值约为202亿美元。按14美元/股的发行价计算，市值缩水了近七成。以市值为学费，换一条合规健康发展的“康庄大道”，对于即将满10岁的滴滴来说，也不失为一条正路。 （上证报）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607792163,"gmtCreate":1639584822983,"gmtModify":1639584822983,"author":{"id":"19566070945960","authorId":"19566070945960","name":"反套路","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a75c516b230e227d64bb5b47cd9a3c51","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"太肤浅的解读","listText":"太肤浅的解读","text":"太肤浅的解读","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607792163","repostId":"2191962607","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2191962607","pubTimestamp":1639562708,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2191962607?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-15 18:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"强烈建议向爱奇艺管理层授予诺贝尔经济学奖","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2191962607","media":"创事记","summary":"第一门是《经济学》，又名《西方经济学》。这两门都是理论课程，不同之处在于，前一门是适用于世界各国的经济学理论，后一门是适用于中国的经济学理论。很可惜，今年的诺贝尔经济学奖已经颁出去了。但是，我强烈建议把明年的诺贝尔经济学奖颁给爱奇艺管理层。不过，我们必须公允地指出：爱奇艺是否打破了西方经济学的基础理论，爱奇艺管理层能不能拿到明年的诺贝尔经济学奖，还是一个未知数。","content":"<html><body><p>\n<figure>\n<img h=\"314\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/tech/crawl/64/w550h314/20211215/a3cf-c0c03aca45dc8a1bdaa9f99523fa7bb3.jpg\" w=\"550\"/>\n</figure>\n</p><p><span>欢迎关注“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>科技”的微信订阅号：techsina </span></p>\n<p>文/裴培</p>\n<p>来源：互联网怪盗团（ID:TMTphantom)</p>\n<p>我读大学期间，学习过两门经济学基础课程：</p>\n<p>第一门是《经济学》，又名《西方经济学》。</p>\n<p>第二门是《中国改革开放专题》（好像是叫这个名字，忘了，反正差不多）。</p>\n<p>这两门都是理论课程，不同之处在于，前一门是适用于世界各国（不含中国）的经济学理论，后一门是适用于中国的经济学理论。附带说一句，本来我们还应该学习一门《马政经》，但是学了《中国改革开放专题》就可以完全覆盖了。</p>\n<p>《经济学》只有一个老师教，基本就是按照英文翻译教材照本宣科，中间有不少图表和数学模型，不是轻轻松松就能混过去的。考试难度适中，基本没有挂的，但是要得90分也很困难。</p>\n<p>《中国改革开放专题》有好几个老师教，其中包括本院乃至本校赫赫有名的几位大教授，而且没有教材，基本全靠老师的课件。这门课用不上什么数学模型，主要是历史案例分析，例如八十年代的价格闯关、九十年代的国企改革、二十一世纪初加入WTO，等等。考试难度近乎于零，就算没听也能拿高分。</p>\n<p>你是不是看出什么矛盾了？《经济学》课程明明比较难、比较成体系，却不需要很优秀的老师教；《中国改革开放专题》课程明明比较简单、完全不成体系，却需要最优秀的好几个老师一起教。更重要的是，哪怕你从头到尾认真听完后一门课（我们那年头没人这样做），也很难说自己真正学到了什么。</p>\n<p>当年我曾经向老师表达过上述疑问。老师和蔼地摸着我的头说：“中国经济的问题很复杂，包括政策的问题、市场的问题、企业经营的问题，比西方经济复杂得多。我们总不能单纯拿老外的那套理论去糊弄你们。然而，考虑到你们的知识准备不够，缺乏现实历练，感觉自己听不进去也是正常的。”</p>\n<p>一转眼，十多年过去了。在这十多年里，中国经济的复杂性不断刷新着我的认识。今天，我的认识又被刷新了一次——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>彻底打破了基本的西方经济学理论，再次证明了“西方经济学不能用于解释中国经济实践”这个真理。</p>\n<p>很可惜，今年的诺贝尔经济学奖已经颁出去了。但是，我强烈建议把明年的诺贝尔经济学奖颁给爱奇艺管理层。颁给其他任何人，都将是现代经济学历史上最大的学术丑闻，是对爱奇艺的强烈不尊重，是不得人心的，是逆历史潮流而动的！</p>\n<p>西方经济学课本的第一个图表就是“供需关系”。一代又一代的经济学家告诉我们：在正常情况下，一种产品的价格越低，市场需求就越高，这就是所谓的“价格弹性”。当然，也存在价格弹性为零甚至为负数的商品，可是这些商品的比例很小，往往只存在于特殊的历史时期。</p>\n<p>因此，如果一家公司发现自己的产品卖得不好、入不敷出，最直接的解决方法就是降价；如果降价还不能提升销量，那就应该干脆退出市场。在卖得不好的情况下还主动提价，纯属活得不耐烦了，课本里甚至举不出这样的案例。</p>\n<div sax-type=\"proxy\"></div><p>可是就在今天，2021年12月15日，爱奇艺彻底打破了上述“价格弹性理论”。它提升了自己的VIP会员订阅价格。具体而言：</p>\n<p>“黄金VIP连续包月”从19元上调至22元；</p>\n<p>“黄金VIP普通包月”从25元上调至30元；</p>\n<p>“黄金VIP连续包季”从58元上调至63元；</p>\n<p>“黄金VIP普通包季”从68元上调至78元；</p>\n<p>“黄金VIP连续包年”暂时维持218元，等到2022年12月再调整；</p>\n<p>“黄金VIP普通包年”暂时维持248元，等到2022年12月再调整。</p>\n<p>在本次提价之前，爱奇艺的VIP会员数量已经连续两年停止增长：2021年9月底有1.030亿付费用户，去年同期有1.048亿，前年同期则是1.058亿。要知道，这两年是整个互联网行业拼命吃“宅家红利”的两年，包括游戏、图文信息流、短视频、中视频在内的各个内容品类都吃到了红利，唯独长视频平台混成了这样。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>视频和优酷的情况未必好到哪里去（甚至更差），可谁叫爱奇艺是唯一一家独立上市的长视频平台呢？</p>\n<p>在用户显然已经对长视频失去兴趣、付费意愿平平的情况下，爱奇艺选择了提价。西方经济学理论告诉我们，这将导致销量的滑坡，并很可能导致销售额的大幅滑坡——种种迹象显示，长视频会员的价格弹性很可能大于1.0，提高一个单位的价格会导致大于一个单位的销量下滑。降价才是符合经济学理论的行为。</p>\n<p>然而，爱奇艺不但毅然决然地选择了提价，而且爱奇艺的股价在盘前还出现了大幅上涨。这充分说明，全世界的投资者都认为，像爱奇艺这样的中国长视频平台可以无视西方经济学理论，在用户需求明显下滑的情况下还能提价并获得高收入。</p>\n<p>附带说一句，在2021年上半年，三大长视频平台对短视频/中视频平台展开版权保护行动时，广大消费者对它们还是比较同情的，也确实有很多人认为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>、快手和B站应该在一定程度上为爱奇艺的窘况负责。遗憾的是，自从某互联网公司负责视频业务板块的副总裁在某次会议上“炮轰盗版”之后，消费者的同情心就烟消云散了，转而一边倒的痛骂长视频平台。爱奇艺其实也很无奈，因为“炮轰盗版”的不是它，而是友商。唉，人倒霉了，喝水都塞牙。</p>\n<p>不过，我们必须公允地指出：爱奇艺是否打破了西方经济学的基础理论，爱奇艺管理层能不能拿到明年的诺贝尔经济学奖，还是一个未知数。因为我们还不知道，在爱奇艺提升VIP会员价格之后，广大消费者买不买账啊！</p>\n<p>如果大家买账，爱奇艺成功实现了“加价又增收”，充分证明西方经济学的所谓需求曲线是鬼扯淡，也就从根本上推翻了整个西方经济学理论，还能证明整个西方社会科学研究体系的虚伪性、空洞性。</p>\n<p>如果大家不买账，爱奇艺加价了却没有增收……那就说明西方经济学理论还奏效，中国的消费品市场也符合西方经济学的一般理论，没有什么东西被证伪了咯。</p>\n<p>这是一个至关重要、意义深远的选择。大家请一定站到正确的一边！</p>\n<div>\n<img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/default/2fb77759/20151125/320X320.png\"/>\n</div>\n</body></html>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>强烈建议向爱奇艺管理层授予诺贝尔经济学奖</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 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class=\"title\">\n强烈建议向爱奇艺管理层授予诺贝尔经济学奖\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-15 18:05 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://tech.sina.cn/csj/2021-12-15/doc-ikyamrmy9165877.d.html?vt=4><strong>创事记</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>欢迎关注“新浪科技”的微信订阅号：techsina \n文/裴培\n来源：互联网怪盗团（ID:TMTphantom)\n我读大学期间，学习过两门经济学基础课程：\n第一门是《经济学》，又名《西方经济学》。\n第二门是《中国改革开放专题》（好像是叫这个名字，忘了，反正差不多）。\n这两门都是理论课程，不同之处在于，前一门是适用于世界各国（不含中国）的经济学理论，后一门是适用于中国的经济学理论。附带说一句，本来...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://tech.sina.cn/csj/2021-12-15/doc-ikyamrmy9165877.d.html?vt=4\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://k.sinaimg.cn/n/tech/crawl/64/w550h314/20211215/a3cf-c0c03aca45dc8a1bdaa9f99523fa7bb3.jpg/w120h90l50t1e21.jpg","relate_stocks":{"BK4526":"热门中概股","IQ":"爱奇艺","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念"},"source_url":"http://tech.sina.cn/csj/2021-12-15/doc-ikyamrmy9165877.d.html?vt=4","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2191962607","content_text":"欢迎关注“新浪科技”的微信订阅号：techsina \n文/裴培\n来源：互联网怪盗团（ID:TMTphantom)\n我读大学期间，学习过两门经济学基础课程：\n第一门是《经济学》，又名《西方经济学》。\n第二门是《中国改革开放专题》（好像是叫这个名字，忘了，反正差不多）。\n这两门都是理论课程，不同之处在于，前一门是适用于世界各国（不含中国）的经济学理论，后一门是适用于中国的经济学理论。附带说一句，本来我们还应该学习一门《马政经》，但是学了《中国改革开放专题》就可以完全覆盖了。\n《经济学》只有一个老师教，基本就是按照英文翻译教材照本宣科，中间有不少图表和数学模型，不是轻轻松松就能混过去的。考试难度适中，基本没有挂的，但是要得90分也很困难。\n《中国改革开放专题》有好几个老师教，其中包括本院乃至本校赫赫有名的几位大教授，而且没有教材，基本全靠老师的课件。这门课用不上什么数学模型，主要是历史案例分析，例如八十年代的价格闯关、九十年代的国企改革、二十一世纪初加入WTO，等等。考试难度近乎于零，就算没听也能拿高分。\n你是不是看出什么矛盾了？《经济学》课程明明比较难、比较成体系，却不需要很优秀的老师教；《中国改革开放专题》课程明明比较简单、完全不成体系，却需要最优秀的好几个老师一起教。更重要的是，哪怕你从头到尾认真听完后一门课（我们那年头没人这样做），也很难说自己真正学到了什么。\n当年我曾经向老师表达过上述疑问。老师和蔼地摸着我的头说：“中国经济的问题很复杂，包括政策的问题、市场的问题、企业经营的问题，比西方经济复杂得多。我们总不能单纯拿老外的那套理论去糊弄你们。然而，考虑到你们的知识准备不够，缺乏现实历练，感觉自己听不进去也是正常的。”\n一转眼，十多年过去了。在这十多年里，中国经济的复杂性不断刷新着我的认识。今天，我的认识又被刷新了一次——爱奇艺彻底打破了基本的西方经济学理论，再次证明了“西方经济学不能用于解释中国经济实践”这个真理。\n很可惜，今年的诺贝尔经济学奖已经颁出去了。但是，我强烈建议把明年的诺贝尔经济学奖颁给爱奇艺管理层。颁给其他任何人，都将是现代经济学历史上最大的学术丑闻，是对爱奇艺的强烈不尊重，是不得人心的，是逆历史潮流而动的！\n西方经济学课本的第一个图表就是“供需关系”。一代又一代的经济学家告诉我们：在正常情况下，一种产品的价格越低，市场需求就越高，这就是所谓的“价格弹性”。当然，也存在价格弹性为零甚至为负数的商品，可是这些商品的比例很小，往往只存在于特殊的历史时期。\n因此，如果一家公司发现自己的产品卖得不好、入不敷出，最直接的解决方法就是降价；如果降价还不能提升销量，那就应该干脆退出市场。在卖得不好的情况下还主动提价，纯属活得不耐烦了，课本里甚至举不出这样的案例。\n可是就在今天，2021年12月15日，爱奇艺彻底打破了上述“价格弹性理论”。它提升了自己的VIP会员订阅价格。具体而言：\n“黄金VIP连续包月”从19元上调至22元；\n“黄金VIP普通包月”从25元上调至30元；\n“黄金VIP连续包季”从58元上调至63元；\n“黄金VIP普通包季”从68元上调至78元；\n“黄金VIP连续包年”暂时维持218元，等到2022年12月再调整；\n“黄金VIP普通包年”暂时维持248元，等到2022年12月再调整。\n在本次提价之前，爱奇艺的VIP会员数量已经连续两年停止增长：2021年9月底有1.030亿付费用户，去年同期有1.048亿，前年同期则是1.058亿。要知道，这两年是整个互联网行业拼命吃“宅家红利”的两年，包括游戏、图文信息流、短视频、中视频在内的各个内容品类都吃到了红利，唯独长视频平台混成了这样。腾讯视频和优酷的情况未必好到哪里去（甚至更差），可谁叫爱奇艺是唯一一家独立上市的长视频平台呢？\n在用户显然已经对长视频失去兴趣、付费意愿平平的情况下，爱奇艺选择了提价。西方经济学理论告诉我们，这将导致销量的滑坡，并很可能导致销售额的大幅滑坡——种种迹象显示，长视频会员的价格弹性很可能大于1.0，提高一个单位的价格会导致大于一个单位的销量下滑。降价才是符合经济学理论的行为。\n然而，爱奇艺不但毅然决然地选择了提价，而且爱奇艺的股价在盘前还出现了大幅上涨。这充分说明，全世界的投资者都认为，像爱奇艺这样的中国长视频平台可以无视西方经济学理论，在用户需求明显下滑的情况下还能提价并获得高收入。\n附带说一句，在2021年上半年，三大长视频平台对短视频/中视频平台展开版权保护行动时，广大消费者对它们还是比较同情的，也确实有很多人认为抖音、快手和B站应该在一定程度上为爱奇艺的窘况负责。遗憾的是，自从某互联网公司负责视频业务板块的副总裁在某次会议上“炮轰盗版”之后，消费者的同情心就烟消云散了，转而一边倒的痛骂长视频平台。爱奇艺其实也很无奈，因为“炮轰盗版”的不是它，而是友商。唉，人倒霉了，喝水都塞牙。\n不过，我们必须公允地指出：爱奇艺是否打破了西方经济学的基础理论，爱奇艺管理层能不能拿到明年的诺贝尔经济学奖，还是一个未知数。因为我们还不知道，在爱奇艺提升VIP会员价格之后，广大消费者买不买账啊！\n如果大家买账，爱奇艺成功实现了“加价又增收”，充分证明西方经济学的所谓需求曲线是鬼扯淡，也就从根本上推翻了整个西方经济学理论，还能证明整个西方社会科学研究体系的虚伪性、空洞性。\n如果大家不买账，爱奇艺加价了却没有增收……那就说明西方经济学理论还奏效，中国的消费品市场也符合西方经济学的一般理论，没有什么东西被证伪了咯。\n这是一个至关重要、意义深远的选择。大家请一定站到正确的一边！","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":157552173,"gmtCreate":1625593890992,"gmtModify":1625593890992,"author":{"id":"19566070945960","authorId":"19566070945960","name":"反套路","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a75c516b230e227d64bb5b47cd9a3c51","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这是要开倒车吗","listText":"这是要开倒车吗","text":"这是要开倒车吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157552173","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":135952500,"gmtCreate":1622127655600,"gmtModify":1622127655600,"author":{"id":"19566070945960","authorId":"19566070945960","name":"反套路","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a75c516b230e227d64bb5b47cd9a3c51","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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