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胡乐乐
2017-05-18
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 谁说的要到100坑我空进去
胡乐乐
2018-09-05
$京东(JD)$麻烦刚开始,撤了。
胡乐乐
2019-05-07
$道琼斯(.DJI)$ 我查,这样让明天的A股又要千股跌停了。
胡乐乐
2018-09-05
$京东(JD)$我也不会这个时候做空你,落井下石。
胡乐乐
2018-12-13
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$成垃圾股了,京东都涨6个多点了
胡乐乐
2018-09-05
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$是京东出事,怎么巴巴跌,还以为是马云去美国了呢
胡乐乐
2017-10-27
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 双十一了,巴巴冲击200
胡乐乐
2020-05-13
印钞多费劲呢,还用印钞啊,把每个人的账户里数字后面多加0就行了。
达里奥最新思考!美国疯狂印钞藏隐忧
胡乐乐
2019-01-15
$道琼斯(.DJI)$美股能做空为什么跌着那么难
胡乐乐
2019-01-11
$道琼斯(.DJI)$打暴空头的节奏。
胡乐乐
2018-12-14
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$你给京东提鞋都不配
胡乐乐
2017-07-05
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 软件坏了吗,昨天没开盘?
胡乐乐
2020-06-12
$微博(WB)$
涨时如便秘,跌时如拉稀,用这句话形容这个股是最准确的。
胡乐乐
2019-04-29
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 新高新高再新高,老美跌一下会Si啊,我就做空你一手,你至于这样一直涨吗?
胡乐乐
2019-04-25
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 太高看A股影响力了,拉不下去啊,明天A股还跌,不信你子小子不下来
胡乐乐
2020-05-13
$微博(WB)$
卖了京东换的你真是倒霉。
胡乐乐
2020-05-13
$微博(WB)$
人家跌你跌,人家涨你野爹。
胡乐乐
2019-01-14
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$美股跌下去真难。A股涨上去难
胡乐乐
2019-01-11
$道琼斯(.DJI)$说好的大跌呢
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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16:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"达里奥最新思考!美国疯狂印钞藏隐忧","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149766794","media":"远川投资评论","summary":"“现金为王”一直被很多投资者奉为金科玉律,尤其是在经济形势不好,市场表现不佳的时候,持有现金往往被看作最保险的选择。在新冠疫情的冲击下,全球经济大衰退,股市剧烈震荡,债市违约风险陡增,“现金为王”的呼","content":"<p><span>“现金为王”一直被很多投资者奉为金科玉律,尤其是在经济形势不好,市场表现不佳的时候,持有现金往往被看作最保险的选择。在新冠疫情的冲击下,全球经济大衰退,股市剧烈震荡,债市违约风险陡增,“现金为王”的呼声渐高。即使整天喊着“别人恐慌我贪婪”的股神巴菲特,现金持有量也破了记录。</span></p>\n<p><span>不过,也有投资大佬对现金嗤之以鼻,如全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里欧,就是典型代表。他不止一次在公开场合说过“现金就是垃圾”的观点。虽然在今年一季度全球市场的暴跌中,达里欧被打脸,但他对于这一观点并没有改变,在4月初又重提了一次。</span></p>\n<p><span>达里欧最近在领英上对其新书《变化中的世界秩序》部分章节进行了更新,其中也表达了类似的看法。在这篇题为《金钱价值的变化》一文中,他驳斥了“现金是可持有的安全资产”的观点。在他看来,各国政府加印货币和降低利率等经济刺激手段,势必带来本国货币的贬值,这种情况下持有现金并非明智之举。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>Part 1. 货币:摆脱危机的好工具</b></span></p>\n<p><span>达里欧表示,紧缩(降低支出)、债务违约和重组、资金与信贷转移(例如提高税收)和印钱是应对债务危机的四种方法。但前三种方法可能会带来一些负面效果,例如税收会减少人们到手收入,债务违约和重组是另一种形式的财富再分配;相比而言,人们对印钱的接受度更高,因此成为各国应对经济衰退的主要措施。</span></p>\n<p><span>广义上来看,货币等于现金加上信贷;而狭义上,货币与现金可以等同,因此,要讨论现金的价值,首先要讨论货币。</span></p>\n<p><span>一方面,在经济下行的时候,多数政府会通过加印货币和降低利率等手段来刺激经济。随着市场上流通货币的增加、本国资金和外国投资者的资金外流,货币的市场价值必然会下降。</span></p>\n<p><span>另一方面,大部分经济危机的核心冲突是债务危机,应对方法就是让债务人拥有足够的现金流来偿还债务,这样,债务人不会为偿还旧债务而背上新的债务,债权人的资产也不会因此受损。而这些钱重新流入企业创造利润,实际股票价格增长,导致现金和债务资产的实际和预期回报降低。而债务贬值最终还是现金的贬值。</span></p>\n<p><span>由此看来,持有现金并不是绝对稳妥的资产配置选择,尤其是在经济下行、政府债台高筑的时候,现金可能比其他资产具有更高的贬值风险。为了避免债务危机的恶化,政府加印货币,必然会牺牲货币的价值。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>Part 2. 货币贬值与债务危机</b></span></p>\n<p><span>而在过去的170年里,曾出现过六次大幅度的货币贬值。在达里欧看来,货币贬值事件并不具有偶然性,它们与债务危机是紧密相关的。</span></p>\n<p><span>在战争时期,政府需要大量融资来填补战争支出的需求,而在战争结束后,因为战败国承担大量债务,也会出现货币贬值的情况。战争借贷导致了债务周期的崩溃和债务贬值,最终导致了战败国货币体系的崩溃和恶性的通货膨胀。</span></p>\n<p><span>二战后,德国马克的货币和信贷价值被抹去,甚至影响了德国的兴衰。二战期间,由于货币印刷、财富冲突和债务的积累,除了在战争中获得了大量黄金的美国外,大部分的参战国均出现了不同程度的货币贬值。</span></p>\n<p><span>同时,货币的贬值又会引起下一轮的债务危机。在货币制度更改后,全球出现了不同程度的货币贬值和债务危机。例如,在一战之前,大部分国家加入了金本位制,而实行银本位制的日本,因为白银的价格大跌而出现了大幅度的货币贬值。</span></p>\n<p><span>另外,60年代末,由于二战结束后的过度借贷,美国不得不率先结束布雷顿森林体系所规定的金本位货币体系,建立了以美元为基础的法定货币体系,这一行为使得以美元计价的货币和信贷大幅度增长,货币贬值,同时为1980年代的债务危机埋下了种子。</span></p>\n<p><span>债务的价值和货币的价值之间,存在相互作用、相互影响的关系,两者不断的贬值往往造成恶性循环。在面对债务危机时,政府投入更多现金流来拯救债务危机,从而造成了债务和现金的双重贬值。因此,虽然看上去手中的现金数量没有变化,但它实际的市场价值却大大降低。而且,货币贬值还会带来一系列的问题。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>Part 3. 贬值,不仅仅是贬值</b></span></p>\n<p><span>对于一个国家而言,货币贬值带来的不仅仅是货币价值的下降,甚至会带来货币国际地位的变动。这种情况下,投资者若持有大量现金,也是存在较大风险的。达里欧列举了荷兰、英国历史上的遭遇来说明这点。</span></p>\n<p><span>荷兰在近代历史上经历过数次战争,这些战争的支出为荷兰带来了巨额的债务,使得荷兰无力偿还自己的债务,从而导致了荷兰世界强国地位的动摇。最终,荷兰货币体系倒塌,在欧洲使用了近400年的荷兰盾退出历史舞台,货币贬值与恶性通胀接踵而至。</span></p>\n<p><span>类似的事情也曾发生在英国。由于“二战“的战争债务和国际收支的紧张,英国政府选择加印货币来弥补亏空,英镑因此出现了两次大的贬值;同时,迫于政治压力,部分持有英镑储备的投资者抛售英镑,导致英镑回报率下降,明显低于美元,最终英镑失去了其储备货币的地位,其持有者资产也因此大幅缩水。</span></p>\n<p><span>达里欧认为,通常一个国家失去其储备货币地位,主要有几种可能:</span></p>\n<p><span>1)已有的经济和政治优势逐渐丧失,而上升的竞争对手会造成脆弱性(例如,荷兰落后于英国,或英国落后于美国);</span></p>\n<p><span>2)中央银行通过印制大量的货币,来购买政府不断增长的债务,即债务货币化;</span></p>\n<p><span>3)货币贬值以自我强化的方式运行,但是由于财政和金融因素,加印货币不能停止,因为国际收支赤字太大,而且无法削减。</span></p>\n<p><span>虽然美元目前仍是全球储备货币,但是美元、欧元和日元处于长期债务周期的后期,当债务越高,持有这些债务资产的实际利率补偿越低,更多的新债务将会出现,风险越来越高,大幅度的贬值或主要储备货币丧失储备货币地位,其破坏性将是难以想象的。</span></p>\n<p><span>总而言之,“现金为王”的观点虽然看似有些道理,但是当遇到债务危机和量化宽松时,现金的实际价值可能并不能满足人们对收益的期待。这可能是在当前情况下,达里欧不建议投资者持有现金的原因所在。</span></p>","source":"lsy1583835599575","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>达里奥最新思考!美国疯狂印钞藏隐忧</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n达里奥最新思考!美国疯狂印钞藏隐忧\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-13 16:52 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/372407><strong>远川投资评论</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“现金为王”一直被很多投资者奉为金科玉律,尤其是在经济形势不好,市场表现不佳的时候,持有现金往往被看作最保险的选择。在新冠疫情的冲击下,全球经济大衰退,股市剧烈震荡,债市违约风险陡增,“现金为王”的呼声渐高。即使整天喊着“别人恐慌我贪婪”的股神巴菲特,现金持有量也破了记录。\n不过,也有投资大佬对现金嗤之以鼻,如全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里欧,就是典型代表。他不止一次在公开场合说过“现金就是垃圾”...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/372407\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f81b99b97a59da55dd70fd1af475cb","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/372407","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149766794","content_text":"“现金为王”一直被很多投资者奉为金科玉律,尤其是在经济形势不好,市场表现不佳的时候,持有现金往往被看作最保险的选择。在新冠疫情的冲击下,全球经济大衰退,股市剧烈震荡,债市违约风险陡增,“现金为王”的呼声渐高。即使整天喊着“别人恐慌我贪婪”的股神巴菲特,现金持有量也破了记录。\n不过,也有投资大佬对现金嗤之以鼻,如全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里欧,就是典型代表。他不止一次在公开场合说过“现金就是垃圾”的观点。虽然在今年一季度全球市场的暴跌中,达里欧被打脸,但他对于这一观点并没有改变,在4月初又重提了一次。\n达里欧最近在领英上对其新书《变化中的世界秩序》部分章节进行了更新,其中也表达了类似的看法。在这篇题为《金钱价值的变化》一文中,他驳斥了“现金是可持有的安全资产”的观点。在他看来,各国政府加印货币和降低利率等经济刺激手段,势必带来本国货币的贬值,这种情况下持有现金并非明智之举。\nPart 1. 货币:摆脱危机的好工具\n达里欧表示,紧缩(降低支出)、债务违约和重组、资金与信贷转移(例如提高税收)和印钱是应对债务危机的四种方法。但前三种方法可能会带来一些负面效果,例如税收会减少人们到手收入,债务违约和重组是另一种形式的财富再分配;相比而言,人们对印钱的接受度更高,因此成为各国应对经济衰退的主要措施。\n广义上来看,货币等于现金加上信贷;而狭义上,货币与现金可以等同,因此,要讨论现金的价值,首先要讨论货币。\n一方面,在经济下行的时候,多数政府会通过加印货币和降低利率等手段来刺激经济。随着市场上流通货币的增加、本国资金和外国投资者的资金外流,货币的市场价值必然会下降。\n另一方面,大部分经济危机的核心冲突是债务危机,应对方法就是让债务人拥有足够的现金流来偿还债务,这样,债务人不会为偿还旧债务而背上新的债务,债权人的资产也不会因此受损。而这些钱重新流入企业创造利润,实际股票价格增长,导致现金和债务资产的实际和预期回报降低。而债务贬值最终还是现金的贬值。\n由此看来,持有现金并不是绝对稳妥的资产配置选择,尤其是在经济下行、政府债台高筑的时候,现金可能比其他资产具有更高的贬值风险。为了避免债务危机的恶化,政府加印货币,必然会牺牲货币的价值。\nPart 2. 货币贬值与债务危机\n而在过去的170年里,曾出现过六次大幅度的货币贬值。在达里欧看来,货币贬值事件并不具有偶然性,它们与债务危机是紧密相关的。\n在战争时期,政府需要大量融资来填补战争支出的需求,而在战争结束后,因为战败国承担大量债务,也会出现货币贬值的情况。战争借贷导致了债务周期的崩溃和债务贬值,最终导致了战败国货币体系的崩溃和恶性的通货膨胀。\n二战后,德国马克的货币和信贷价值被抹去,甚至影响了德国的兴衰。二战期间,由于货币印刷、财富冲突和债务的积累,除了在战争中获得了大量黄金的美国外,大部分的参战国均出现了不同程度的货币贬值。\n同时,货币的贬值又会引起下一轮的债务危机。在货币制度更改后,全球出现了不同程度的货币贬值和债务危机。例如,在一战之前,大部分国家加入了金本位制,而实行银本位制的日本,因为白银的价格大跌而出现了大幅度的货币贬值。\n另外,60年代末,由于二战结束后的过度借贷,美国不得不率先结束布雷顿森林体系所规定的金本位货币体系,建立了以美元为基础的法定货币体系,这一行为使得以美元计价的货币和信贷大幅度增长,货币贬值,同时为1980年代的债务危机埋下了种子。\n债务的价值和货币的价值之间,存在相互作用、相互影响的关系,两者不断的贬值往往造成恶性循环。在面对债务危机时,政府投入更多现金流来拯救债务危机,从而造成了债务和现金的双重贬值。因此,虽然看上去手中的现金数量没有变化,但它实际的市场价值却大大降低。而且,货币贬值还会带来一系列的问题。\nPart 3. 贬值,不仅仅是贬值\n对于一个国家而言,货币贬值带来的不仅仅是货币价值的下降,甚至会带来货币国际地位的变动。这种情况下,投资者若持有大量现金,也是存在较大风险的。达里欧列举了荷兰、英国历史上的遭遇来说明这点。\n荷兰在近代历史上经历过数次战争,这些战争的支出为荷兰带来了巨额的债务,使得荷兰无力偿还自己的债务,从而导致了荷兰世界强国地位的动摇。最终,荷兰货币体系倒塌,在欧洲使用了近400年的荷兰盾退出历史舞台,货币贬值与恶性通胀接踵而至。\n类似的事情也曾发生在英国。由于“二战“的战争债务和国际收支的紧张,英国政府选择加印货币来弥补亏空,英镑因此出现了两次大的贬值;同时,迫于政治压力,部分持有英镑储备的投资者抛售英镑,导致英镑回报率下降,明显低于美元,最终英镑失去了其储备货币的地位,其持有者资产也因此大幅缩水。\n达里欧认为,通常一个国家失去其储备货币地位,主要有几种可能:\n1)已有的经济和政治优势逐渐丧失,而上升的竞争对手会造成脆弱性(例如,荷兰落后于英国,或英国落后于美国);\n2)中央银行通过印制大量的货币,来购买政府不断增长的债务,即债务货币化;\n3)货币贬值以自我强化的方式运行,但是由于财政和金融因素,加印货币不能停止,因为国际收支赤字太大,而且无法削减。\n虽然美元目前仍是全球储备货币,但是美元、欧元和日元处于长期债务周期的后期,当债务越高,持有这些债务资产的实际利率补偿越低,更多的新债务将会出现,风险越来越高,大幅度的贬值或主要储备货币丧失储备货币地位,其破坏性将是难以想象的。\n总而言之,“现金为王”的观点虽然看似有些道理,但是当遇到债务危机和量化宽松时,现金的实际价值可能并不能满足人们对收益的期待。这可能是在当前情况下,达里欧不建议投资者持有现金的原因所在。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":950627469,"gmtCreate":1589378803851,"gmtModify":1704189699234,"author":{"id":"178763525534388","authorId":"178763525534388","name":"胡乐乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/a4bd0019e127231fabb0264435296100","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"178763525534388","idStr":"178763525534388"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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双十一了,巴巴冲击200","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107331","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":58,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":950650297,"gmtCreate":1589378910919,"gmtModify":1704189699924,"author":{"id":"178763525534388","authorId":"178763525534388","name":"胡乐乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/a4bd0019e127231fabb0264435296100","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"178763525534388","authorIdStr":"178763525534388"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"印钞多费劲呢,还用印钞啊,把每个人的账户里数字后面多加0就行了。","listText":"印钞多费劲呢,还用印钞啊,把每个人的账户里数字后面多加0就行了。","text":"印钞多费劲呢,还用印钞啊,把每个人的账户里数字后面多加0就行了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/950650297","repostId":"1149766794","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149766794","pubTimestamp":1589359968,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149766794?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-05-13 16:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"达里奥最新思考!美国疯狂印钞藏隐忧","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149766794","media":"远川投资评论","summary":"“现金为王”一直被很多投资者奉为金科玉律,尤其是在经济形势不好,市场表现不佳的时候,持有现金往往被看作最保险的选择。在新冠疫情的冲击下,全球经济大衰退,股市剧烈震荡,债市违约风险陡增,“现金为王”的呼","content":"<p><span>“现金为王”一直被很多投资者奉为金科玉律,尤其是在经济形势不好,市场表现不佳的时候,持有现金往往被看作最保险的选择。在新冠疫情的冲击下,全球经济大衰退,股市剧烈震荡,债市违约风险陡增,“现金为王”的呼声渐高。即使整天喊着“别人恐慌我贪婪”的股神巴菲特,现金持有量也破了记录。</span></p>\n<p><span>不过,也有投资大佬对现金嗤之以鼻,如全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里欧,就是典型代表。他不止一次在公开场合说过“现金就是垃圾”的观点。虽然在今年一季度全球市场的暴跌中,达里欧被打脸,但他对于这一观点并没有改变,在4月初又重提了一次。</span></p>\n<p><span>达里欧最近在领英上对其新书《变化中的世界秩序》部分章节进行了更新,其中也表达了类似的看法。在这篇题为《金钱价值的变化》一文中,他驳斥了“现金是可持有的安全资产”的观点。在他看来,各国政府加印货币和降低利率等经济刺激手段,势必带来本国货币的贬值,这种情况下持有现金并非明智之举。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>Part 1. 货币:摆脱危机的好工具</b></span></p>\n<p><span>达里欧表示,紧缩(降低支出)、债务违约和重组、资金与信贷转移(例如提高税收)和印钱是应对债务危机的四种方法。但前三种方法可能会带来一些负面效果,例如税收会减少人们到手收入,债务违约和重组是另一种形式的财富再分配;相比而言,人们对印钱的接受度更高,因此成为各国应对经济衰退的主要措施。</span></p>\n<p><span>广义上来看,货币等于现金加上信贷;而狭义上,货币与现金可以等同,因此,要讨论现金的价值,首先要讨论货币。</span></p>\n<p><span>一方面,在经济下行的时候,多数政府会通过加印货币和降低利率等手段来刺激经济。随着市场上流通货币的增加、本国资金和外国投资者的资金外流,货币的市场价值必然会下降。</span></p>\n<p><span>另一方面,大部分经济危机的核心冲突是债务危机,应对方法就是让债务人拥有足够的现金流来偿还债务,这样,债务人不会为偿还旧债务而背上新的债务,债权人的资产也不会因此受损。而这些钱重新流入企业创造利润,实际股票价格增长,导致现金和债务资产的实际和预期回报降低。而债务贬值最终还是现金的贬值。</span></p>\n<p><span>由此看来,持有现金并不是绝对稳妥的资产配置选择,尤其是在经济下行、政府债台高筑的时候,现金可能比其他资产具有更高的贬值风险。为了避免债务危机的恶化,政府加印货币,必然会牺牲货币的价值。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>Part 2. 货币贬值与债务危机</b></span></p>\n<p><span>而在过去的170年里,曾出现过六次大幅度的货币贬值。在达里欧看来,货币贬值事件并不具有偶然性,它们与债务危机是紧密相关的。</span></p>\n<p><span>在战争时期,政府需要大量融资来填补战争支出的需求,而在战争结束后,因为战败国承担大量债务,也会出现货币贬值的情况。战争借贷导致了债务周期的崩溃和债务贬值,最终导致了战败国货币体系的崩溃和恶性的通货膨胀。</span></p>\n<p><span>二战后,德国马克的货币和信贷价值被抹去,甚至影响了德国的兴衰。二战期间,由于货币印刷、财富冲突和债务的积累,除了在战争中获得了大量黄金的美国外,大部分的参战国均出现了不同程度的货币贬值。</span></p>\n<p><span>同时,货币的贬值又会引起下一轮的债务危机。在货币制度更改后,全球出现了不同程度的货币贬值和债务危机。例如,在一战之前,大部分国家加入了金本位制,而实行银本位制的日本,因为白银的价格大跌而出现了大幅度的货币贬值。</span></p>\n<p><span>另外,60年代末,由于二战结束后的过度借贷,美国不得不率先结束布雷顿森林体系所规定的金本位货币体系,建立了以美元为基础的法定货币体系,这一行为使得以美元计价的货币和信贷大幅度增长,货币贬值,同时为1980年代的债务危机埋下了种子。</span></p>\n<p><span>债务的价值和货币的价值之间,存在相互作用、相互影响的关系,两者不断的贬值往往造成恶性循环。在面对债务危机时,政府投入更多现金流来拯救债务危机,从而造成了债务和现金的双重贬值。因此,虽然看上去手中的现金数量没有变化,但它实际的市场价值却大大降低。而且,货币贬值还会带来一系列的问题。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>Part 3. 贬值,不仅仅是贬值</b></span></p>\n<p><span>对于一个国家而言,货币贬值带来的不仅仅是货币价值的下降,甚至会带来货币国际地位的变动。这种情况下,投资者若持有大量现金,也是存在较大风险的。达里欧列举了荷兰、英国历史上的遭遇来说明这点。</span></p>\n<p><span>荷兰在近代历史上经历过数次战争,这些战争的支出为荷兰带来了巨额的债务,使得荷兰无力偿还自己的债务,从而导致了荷兰世界强国地位的动摇。最终,荷兰货币体系倒塌,在欧洲使用了近400年的荷兰盾退出历史舞台,货币贬值与恶性通胀接踵而至。</span></p>\n<p><span>类似的事情也曾发生在英国。由于“二战“的战争债务和国际收支的紧张,英国政府选择加印货币来弥补亏空,英镑因此出现了两次大的贬值;同时,迫于政治压力,部分持有英镑储备的投资者抛售英镑,导致英镑回报率下降,明显低于美元,最终英镑失去了其储备货币的地位,其持有者资产也因此大幅缩水。</span></p>\n<p><span>达里欧认为,通常一个国家失去其储备货币地位,主要有几种可能:</span></p>\n<p><span>1)已有的经济和政治优势逐渐丧失,而上升的竞争对手会造成脆弱性(例如,荷兰落后于英国,或英国落后于美国);</span></p>\n<p><span>2)中央银行通过印制大量的货币,来购买政府不断增长的债务,即债务货币化;</span></p>\n<p><span>3)货币贬值以自我强化的方式运行,但是由于财政和金融因素,加印货币不能停止,因为国际收支赤字太大,而且无法削减。</span></p>\n<p><span>虽然美元目前仍是全球储备货币,但是美元、欧元和日元处于长期债务周期的后期,当债务越高,持有这些债务资产的实际利率补偿越低,更多的新债务将会出现,风险越来越高,大幅度的贬值或主要储备货币丧失储备货币地位,其破坏性将是难以想象的。</span></p>\n<p><span>总而言之,“现金为王”的观点虽然看似有些道理,但是当遇到债务危机和量化宽松时,现金的实际价值可能并不能满足人们对收益的期待。这可能是在当前情况下,达里欧不建议投资者持有现金的原因所在。</span></p>","source":"lsy1583835599575","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>达里奥最新思考!美国疯狂印钞藏隐忧</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n达里奥最新思考!美国疯狂印钞藏隐忧\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-13 16:52 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/372407><strong>远川投资评论</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“现金为王”一直被很多投资者奉为金科玉律,尤其是在经济形势不好,市场表现不佳的时候,持有现金往往被看作最保险的选择。在新冠疫情的冲击下,全球经济大衰退,股市剧烈震荡,债市违约风险陡增,“现金为王”的呼声渐高。即使整天喊着“别人恐慌我贪婪”的股神巴菲特,现金持有量也破了记录。\n不过,也有投资大佬对现金嗤之以鼻,如全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里欧,就是典型代表。他不止一次在公开场合说过“现金就是垃圾”...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/372407\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f81b99b97a59da55dd70fd1af475cb","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/372407","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149766794","content_text":"“现金为王”一直被很多投资者奉为金科玉律,尤其是在经济形势不好,市场表现不佳的时候,持有现金往往被看作最保险的选择。在新冠疫情的冲击下,全球经济大衰退,股市剧烈震荡,债市违约风险陡增,“现金为王”的呼声渐高。即使整天喊着“别人恐慌我贪婪”的股神巴菲特,现金持有量也破了记录。\n不过,也有投资大佬对现金嗤之以鼻,如全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里欧,就是典型代表。他不止一次在公开场合说过“现金就是垃圾”的观点。虽然在今年一季度全球市场的暴跌中,达里欧被打脸,但他对于这一观点并没有改变,在4月初又重提了一次。\n达里欧最近在领英上对其新书《变化中的世界秩序》部分章节进行了更新,其中也表达了类似的看法。在这篇题为《金钱价值的变化》一文中,他驳斥了“现金是可持有的安全资产”的观点。在他看来,各国政府加印货币和降低利率等经济刺激手段,势必带来本国货币的贬值,这种情况下持有现金并非明智之举。\nPart 1. 货币:摆脱危机的好工具\n达里欧表示,紧缩(降低支出)、债务违约和重组、资金与信贷转移(例如提高税收)和印钱是应对债务危机的四种方法。但前三种方法可能会带来一些负面效果,例如税收会减少人们到手收入,债务违约和重组是另一种形式的财富再分配;相比而言,人们对印钱的接受度更高,因此成为各国应对经济衰退的主要措施。\n广义上来看,货币等于现金加上信贷;而狭义上,货币与现金可以等同,因此,要讨论现金的价值,首先要讨论货币。\n一方面,在经济下行的时候,多数政府会通过加印货币和降低利率等手段来刺激经济。随着市场上流通货币的增加、本国资金和外国投资者的资金外流,货币的市场价值必然会下降。\n另一方面,大部分经济危机的核心冲突是债务危机,应对方法就是让债务人拥有足够的现金流来偿还债务,这样,债务人不会为偿还旧债务而背上新的债务,债权人的资产也不会因此受损。而这些钱重新流入企业创造利润,实际股票价格增长,导致现金和债务资产的实际和预期回报降低。而债务贬值最终还是现金的贬值。\n由此看来,持有现金并不是绝对稳妥的资产配置选择,尤其是在经济下行、政府债台高筑的时候,现金可能比其他资产具有更高的贬值风险。为了避免债务危机的恶化,政府加印货币,必然会牺牲货币的价值。\nPart 2. 货币贬值与债务危机\n而在过去的170年里,曾出现过六次大幅度的货币贬值。在达里欧看来,货币贬值事件并不具有偶然性,它们与债务危机是紧密相关的。\n在战争时期,政府需要大量融资来填补战争支出的需求,而在战争结束后,因为战败国承担大量债务,也会出现货币贬值的情况。战争借贷导致了债务周期的崩溃和债务贬值,最终导致了战败国货币体系的崩溃和恶性的通货膨胀。\n二战后,德国马克的货币和信贷价值被抹去,甚至影响了德国的兴衰。二战期间,由于货币印刷、财富冲突和债务的积累,除了在战争中获得了大量黄金的美国外,大部分的参战国均出现了不同程度的货币贬值。\n同时,货币的贬值又会引起下一轮的债务危机。在货币制度更改后,全球出现了不同程度的货币贬值和债务危机。例如,在一战之前,大部分国家加入了金本位制,而实行银本位制的日本,因为白银的价格大跌而出现了大幅度的货币贬值。\n另外,60年代末,由于二战结束后的过度借贷,美国不得不率先结束布雷顿森林体系所规定的金本位货币体系,建立了以美元为基础的法定货币体系,这一行为使得以美元计价的货币和信贷大幅度增长,货币贬值,同时为1980年代的债务危机埋下了种子。\n债务的价值和货币的价值之间,存在相互作用、相互影响的关系,两者不断的贬值往往造成恶性循环。在面对债务危机时,政府投入更多现金流来拯救债务危机,从而造成了债务和现金的双重贬值。因此,虽然看上去手中的现金数量没有变化,但它实际的市场价值却大大降低。而且,货币贬值还会带来一系列的问题。\nPart 3. 贬值,不仅仅是贬值\n对于一个国家而言,货币贬值带来的不仅仅是货币价值的下降,甚至会带来货币国际地位的变动。这种情况下,投资者若持有大量现金,也是存在较大风险的。达里欧列举了荷兰、英国历史上的遭遇来说明这点。\n荷兰在近代历史上经历过数次战争,这些战争的支出为荷兰带来了巨额的债务,使得荷兰无力偿还自己的债务,从而导致了荷兰世界强国地位的动摇。最终,荷兰货币体系倒塌,在欧洲使用了近400年的荷兰盾退出历史舞台,货币贬值与恶性通胀接踵而至。\n类似的事情也曾发生在英国。由于“二战“的战争债务和国际收支的紧张,英国政府选择加印货币来弥补亏空,英镑因此出现了两次大的贬值;同时,迫于政治压力,部分持有英镑储备的投资者抛售英镑,导致英镑回报率下降,明显低于美元,最终英镑失去了其储备货币的地位,其持有者资产也因此大幅缩水。\n达里欧认为,通常一个国家失去其储备货币地位,主要有几种可能:\n1)已有的经济和政治优势逐渐丧失,而上升的竞争对手会造成脆弱性(例如,荷兰落后于英国,或英国落后于美国);\n2)中央银行通过印制大量的货币,来购买政府不断增长的债务,即债务货币化;\n3)货币贬值以自我强化的方式运行,但是由于财政和金融因素,加印货币不能停止,因为国际收支赤字太大,而且无法削减。\n虽然美元目前仍是全球储备货币,但是美元、欧元和日元处于长期债务周期的后期,当债务越高,持有这些债务资产的实际利率补偿越低,更多的新债务将会出现,风险越来越高,大幅度的贬值或主要储备货币丧失储备货币地位,其破坏性将是难以想象的。\n总而言之,“现金为王”的观点虽然看似有些道理,但是当遇到债务危机和量化宽松时,现金的实际价值可能并不能满足人们对收益的期待。这可能是在当前情况下,达里欧不建议投资者持有现金的原因所在。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":378751,"gmtCreate":1547491862848,"gmtModify":1704786786478,"author":{"id":"178763525534388","authorId":"178763525534388","name":"胡乐乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/a4bd0019e127231fabb0264435296100","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"178763525534388","authorIdStr":"178763525534388"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$美股能做空为什么跌着那么难","listText":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$美股能做空为什么跌着那么难","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$美股能做空为什么跌着那么难","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378751","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1089,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3502195134099797","authorId":"3502195134099797","name":"积木云","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3502195134099797","authorIdStr":"3502195134099797"},"content":"因为需要有空间跌,需要聚拢韭菜人气来提高流通量,负责没法砸的。。股市不怕多空,怕的是一潭死水无人问津没交易","text":"因为需要有空间跌,需要聚拢韭菜人气来提高流通量,负责没法砸的。。股市不怕多空,怕的是一潭死水无人问津没交易","html":"因为需要有空间跌,需要聚拢韭菜人气来提高流通量,负责没法砸的。。股市不怕多空,怕的是一潭死水无人问津没交易"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":376244,"gmtCreate":1547142741953,"gmtModify":1704786484309,"author":{"id":"178763525534388","authorId":"178763525534388","name":"胡乐乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/a4bd0019e127231fabb0264435296100","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"178763525534388","authorIdStr":"178763525534388"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$打暴空头的节奏。","listText":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$打暴空头的节奏。","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$打暴空头的节奏。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/376244","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":36,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":354826,"gmtCreate":1544717579350,"gmtModify":1704783856233,"author":{"id":"178763525534388","authorId":"178763525534388","name":"胡乐乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/a4bd0019e127231fabb0264435296100","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"178763525534388","authorIdStr":"178763525534388"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$你给京东提鞋都不配","listText":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$你给京东提鞋都不配","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$你给京东提鞋都不配","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354826","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":39,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":71835,"gmtCreate":1499226946711,"gmtModify":1704878499408,"author":{"id":"178763525534388","authorId":"178763525534388","name":"胡乐乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/a4bd0019e127231fabb0264435296100","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"178763525534388","authorIdStr":"178763525534388"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 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