我开仓了$GOOG 20251219 160.0 CALL$ , 谷歌当前困境与PE分析及长线机会评估  **一、谷歌当前的核心困境** 1. **广告业务腹背受敌**      - **搜索广告增速放缓**：受宏观经济下行、TikTok等短视频平台冲击，谷歌搜索广告收入增速从2022年20%以上降至2024年的个位数，YouTube广告连续多季度同比下滑（2024Q4同比降7.8%）。      - **反垄断重压**：全球累计超28次反垄断调查（如美国司法部要求拆分广告技术业务），可能导致广告生态系统闭环破裂，威胁80%的收入来源。      - **AI威胁搜索根基**：ChatGPT等生成式AI直接冲击传统搜索模式，谷歌搜索引擎市场份额从2023年的92.9%降至2025年的89.6%。 2. **云计算增速不及预期**      - 2024Q4谷歌云收入119.55亿美元（同比+30%），但低于预期121.9亿美元，且增速落后微软Azure（+31%）。尽管云业务是第二增长曲线（占比14%），但竞争加剧与高资本开支（2025年计划750亿美元）引发市场担忧投入产出比。 3. **AI竞赛中的战略失误**      - **Bard发布翻车**：2023年因AI聊天机器人Bard的答案错误，市值单日蒸发1056亿美元，暴露技术仓促应对微软+OpenAI的威胁。      - *

ARKK Investment Tracker position change: Decreased position in Pacific Biosciences of California by 329,870 shares, the number of shares held decreased 1.47% compared to the previous period and now represents 0.49% of the total position.

ARKK Investment Tracker position change: Increased position in Guardant Health Inc. by 229,304 shares, the number of shares held increased 41.79% compared to the previous period and now represents 0.66% of the total position.

ARKK Investment Tracker position change: Decreased position in Beam Therapeutics, Inc. by 85,560 shares, the number of shares held decreased 1.47% compared to the previous period and now represents 1.85% of the total position.

ARKG Investment Tracker position change: Decreased position in Pacific Biosciences of California by 234,990 shares, the number of shares held decreased 2.07% compared to the previous period and now represents 1.42% of the total position.

ARKK Investment Tracker position change: Decreased position in Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. by 279,930 shares, the number of shares held decreased 1.47% compared to the previous period and now represents 1.57% of the total position.

ARKG Investment Tracker position change: Decreased position in Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. by 244,548 shares, the number of shares held decreased 2.07% compared to the previous period and now represents 5.59% of the total position.

ARKK Investment Tracker position change: Decreased position in Meta Platforms, Inc. by 3,030 shares, the number of shares held decreased 1.47% compared to the previous period and now represents 2.41% of the total position.

ARKK Investment Tracker position change: Decreased position in Palantir Technologies Inc. by 426,944 shares, the number of shares held decreased 12.53% compared to the previous period and now represents 6.53% of the total position.

ARKK Investment Tracker position change: Decreased position in SoFi Technologies Inc. by 1,650 shares, the number of shares held decreased 1.48% compared to the previous period and now represents 0.028% of the total position.

ARKG Investment Tracker position change: Decreased position in Regeneron Pharmaceuticals by 252 shares, the number of shares held decreased 2% compared to the previous period and now represents 0.81% of the total position.

ARKK Investment Tracker position change: Decreased position in Intellia Therapeutics by 127,320 shares, the number of shares held decreased 1.47% compared to the previous period and now represents 1.24% of the total position.

ARKG Investment Tracker position change: Decreased position in Beam Therapeutics, Inc. by 41,094 shares, the number of shares held decreased 2.07% compared to the previous period and now represents 3.62% of the total position.

ARKK Investment Tracker position change: Decreased position in NVIDIA by 4,740 shares, the number of shares held decreased 1.47% compared to the previous period and now represents 0.73% of the total position.

ARKK Investment Tracker position change: Decreased position in CRISPR Therapeutics AG by 95,160 shares, the number of shares held decreased 1.47% compared to the previous period and now represents 4.26% of the total position.

ARKG Investment Tracker position change: Decreased position in Intellia Therapeutics by 59,688 shares, the number of shares held decreased 2.07% compared to the previous period and now represents 2.38% of the total position.

ARKG Investment Tracker position change: Decreased position in CRISPR Therapeutics AG by 40,590 shares, the number of shares held decreased 2.07% compared to the previous period and now represents 7.41% of the total position.

ARKG Investment Tracker position change: Decreased position in Ionis Pharmaceuticals by 19,098 shares, the number of shares held decreased 2.07% compared to the previous period and now represents 3.35% of the total position.

ARKK Investment Tracker position change: Decreased position in Advanced Micro Devices by 13,560 shares, the number of shares held decreased 1.47% compared to the previous period and now represents 1.8% of the total position.