$黄金主连(GCma_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2019-07-13

$黄金主连(GCmain)$ 金价上涨的硬核逻辑永远只有一个，就是美元指数的疲软，现阶段黄金还会上行吗，我认为还会，但高度已经极其有限，外汇美元的多空比现在是空头略多于多头，而美指在降息之后，可能会在短期内到92左右，那时候就是金价的最高峰值，然后就是美指的一路继续上行，所以依旧维持到明年的预判，金价会随着美指相反的方向运行，然而美指下行空间已经不大了，到了明年美指可能会上行到107附近，那个时候，黄金会有一个绝对的低点，就是长期做多的时候到了，而今年下半年，只需要静等美指在降息之后的走势即可，做多美指，做空黄金

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

yuripapa
2019-07-13
yuripapa
我抱类似的观点但你太极端，美指上破103历史上看已经达到了可以引发全球经济海啸的地步，何况对美指最敏感的欧美汇率期货已冲破长期重要阻力位，美指真要破了100关口我就全仓做多黄金安心拿着了
- yuripapa回复huobi_io:
  别长线了，加税了，刚想今天亚盘加仓来着，这下又要飞一阵了
- huobi_io回复yuripapa:
  美元到98.5了，可以长线做多黄金了吗？
- 王囧回复yuripapa:
  恩，你说得没错，也很细致，但我觉得如果谁先崩，肯定是欧元，欧元对美元的上升趋势很有可能是昙花一现，而美联储现阶段有特意配合特朗普表演的意思，过于夸大了美国经济的风险，大周期来看，黄金已经处于牛市孕育期，美国也并没有办法解决每十年都要面临一次的经济衰退，而且这一次的衰退将持续最久，甚至有可能颠覆美国以后在世界的话语权。
- yuripapa回复王囧:
  嗯，国际经济界专家普遍认同的现时经济衰退警戒线的美指水平是98.5，达到这个位置长线投资者其实已经可以毫不犹豫开始逐渐建仓了。
- yuripapa回复王囧:
  英镑对美指影响也只是短期，因为英国央行目前的利率空间也有限，若是有协议脱欧明年甚至普遍预期要加息，把宝压在一个风险事件上不明智的事，而且黄金的表层相关因素是美指，底层其实是美国通胀保值债券tips，建议了解下
木木木林
2019-07-15
木木木林
短期到92黄金不得1500
- 木木木林回复王囧:
  嗯嗯
- 王囧:
  1500恐怕是上限
yuripapa
2019-07-13
yuripapa
另外你要知道欧洲央行的宽松工具是没有美联储多的，利率已经超低，国债收益率已经是负的，而美国相比仍然有不少宽松工具可用，所以欧/美下行空间有限，加上经济下行期日元作为更强的避险货币压制美元，日本央行的货币政策空间更少，美元要一飞冲天也受不少限制
格局一下
2019-07-15
格局一下
呵呵，做空美指，做多黄金。

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":999393139,"tweetId":"999393139","gmtCreate":1562977436421,"gmtModify":1704704683484,"author":{"id":3519118526598779,"authorId":3519118526598779,"authorIdStr":"3519118526598779","name":"王囧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":34,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连(GCmain)$</a>&nbsp;金价上涨的硬核逻辑永远只有一个，就是美元指数的疲软，现阶段黄金还会上行吗，我认为还会，但高度已经极其有限，外汇美元的多空比现在是空头略多于多头，而美指在降息之后，可能会在短期内到92左右，那时候就是金价的最高峰值，然后就是美指的一路继续上行，所以依旧维持到明年的预判，金价会随着美指相反的方向运行，然而美指下行空间已经不大了，到了明年美指可能会上行到107附近，那个时候，黄金会有一个绝对的低点，就是长期做多的时候到了，而今年下半年，只需要静等美指在降息之后的走势即可，做多美指，做空黄金</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连(GCmain)$</a>&nbsp;金价上涨的硬核逻辑永远只有一个，就是美元指数的疲软，现阶段黄金还会上行吗，我认为还会，但高度已经极其有限，外汇美元的多空比现在是空头略多于多头，而美指在降息之后，可能会在短期内到92左右，那时候就是金价的最高峰值，然后就是美指的一路继续上行，所以依旧维持到明年的预判，金价会随着美指相反的方向运行，然而美指下行空间已经不大了，到了明年美指可能会上行到107附近，那个时候，黄金会有一个绝对的低点，就是长期做多的时候到了，而今年下半年，只需要静等美指在降息之后的走势即可，做多美指，做空黄金</body></html>","text":"$黄金主连(GCmain)$ 金价上涨的硬核逻辑永远只有一个，就是美元指数的疲软，现阶段黄金还会上行吗，我认为还会，但高度已经极其有限，外汇美元的多空比现在是空头略多于多头，而美指在降息之后，可能会在短期内到92左右，那时候就是金价的最高峰值，然后就是美指的一路继续上行，所以依旧维持到明年的预判，金价会随着美指相反的方向运行，然而美指下行空间已经不大了，到了明年美指可能会上行到107附近，那个时候，黄金会有一个绝对的低点，就是长期做多的时候到了，而今年下半年，只需要静等美指在降息之后的走势即可，做多美指，做空黄金","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/999393139","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":280,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["GCmain"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":481,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":1704656,"gmtCreate":1562981370350,"gmtModify":1562981506373,"authorId":3493972647236492,"author":{"id":3493972647236492,"authorId":3493972647236492,"name":"yuripapa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c5d74bc05fe5455fec398da15a1fda9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":999393139,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"我抱类似的观点但你太极端，美指上破103历史上看已经达到了可以引发全球经济海啸的地步，何况对美指最敏感的欧美汇率期货已冲破长期重要阻力位，美指真要破了100关口我就全仓做多黄金安心拿着了","text":"我抱类似的观点但你太极端，美指上破103历史上看已经达到了可以引发全球经济海啸的地步，何况对美指最敏感的欧美汇率期货已冲破长期重要阻力位，美指真要破了100关口我就全仓做多黄金安心拿着了","html":"我抱类似的观点但你太极端，美指上破103历史上看已经达到了可以引发全球经济海啸的地步，何况对美指最敏感的欧美汇率期货已冲破长期重要阻力位，美指真要破了100关口我就全仓做多黄金安心拿着了","likeSize":1,"commentSize":7,"subComments":[{"id":1748783,"gmtCreate":1564685421028,"gmtModify":1564685421028,"authorId":3493972647236492,"author":{"id":3493972647236492,"authorId":3493972647236492,"name":"yuripapa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c5d74bc05fe5455fec398da15a1fda9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3523879904592833,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3523879904592833,"authorId":3523879904592833,"name":"huobi_io","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d57f747d2d0323a02d1ecaae2c75c47","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c01e958f63198f5d9648b59135f687","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":999393139,"type":1,"supId":1704656,"prevId":1746038,"content":"别长线了，加税了，刚想今天亚盘加仓来着，这下又要飞一阵了","text":"别长线了，加税了，刚想今天亚盘加仓来着，这下又要飞一阵了","html":"别长线了，加税了，刚想今天亚盘加仓来着，这下又要飞一阵了"},{"id":1746038,"gmtCreate":1564619927020,"gmtModify":1564619927020,"authorId":3523879904592833,"author":{"id":3523879904592833,"authorId":3523879904592833,"name":"huobi_io","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d57f747d2d0323a02d1ecaae2c75c47","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c01e958f63198f5d9648b59135f687","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3493972647236492,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3493972647236492,"authorId":3493972647236492,"name":"yuripapa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c5d74bc05fe5455fec398da15a1fda9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":999393139,"type":1,"supId":1704656,"prevId":1704782,"content":"美元到98.5了，可以长线做多黄金了吗？","text":"美元到98.5了，可以长线做多黄金了吗？","html":"美元到98.5了，可以长线做多黄金了吗？"},{"id":1704709,"gmtCreate":1562984177446,"gmtModify":1562988908650,"authorId":3519118526598779,"author":{"id":3519118526598779,"authorId":3519118526598779,"name":"王囧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3493972647236492,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3493972647236492,"authorId":3493972647236492,"name":"yuripapa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c5d74bc05fe5455fec398da15a1fda9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":999393139,"type":1,"supId":1704656,"prevId":1704695,"content":"恩，你说得没错，也很细致，但我觉得如果谁先崩，肯定是欧元，欧元对美元的上升趋势很有可能是昙花一现，而美联储现阶段有特意配合特朗普表演的意思，过于夸大了美国经济的风险，大周期来看，黄金已经处于牛市孕育期，美国也并没有办法解决每十年都要面临一次的经济衰退，而且这一次的衰退将持续最久，甚至有可能颠覆美国以后在世界的话语权。","text":"恩，你说得没错，也很细致，但我觉得如果谁先崩，肯定是欧元，欧元对美元的上升趋势很有可能是昙花一现，而美联储现阶段有特意配合特朗普表演的意思，过于夸大了美国经济的风险，大周期来看，黄金已经处于牛市孕育期，美国也并没有办法解决每十年都要面临一次的经济衰退，而且这一次的衰退将持续最久，甚至有可能颠覆美国以后在世界的话语权。","html":"恩，你说得没错，也很细致，但我觉得如果谁先崩，肯定是欧元，欧元对美元的上升趋势很有可能是昙花一现，而美联储现阶段有特意配合特朗普表演的意思，过于夸大了美国经济的风险，大周期来看，黄金已经处于牛市孕育期，美国也并没有办法解决每十年都要面临一次的经济衰退，而且这一次的衰退将持续最久，甚至有可能颠覆美国以后在世界的话语权。"},{"id":1704782,"gmtCreate":1562988284089,"gmtModify":1562988284089,"authorId":3493972647236492,"author":{"id":3493972647236492,"authorId":3493972647236492,"name":"yuripapa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c5d74bc05fe5455fec398da15a1fda9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3519118526598779,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3519118526598779,"authorId":3519118526598779,"name":"王囧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":999393139,"type":1,"supId":1704656,"prevId":1704730,"content":"嗯，国际经济界专家普遍认同的现时经济衰退警戒线的美指水平是98.5，达到这个位置长线投资者其实已经可以毫不犹豫开始逐渐建仓了。","text":"嗯，国际经济界专家普遍认同的现时经济衰退警戒线的美指水平是98.5，达到这个位置长线投资者其实已经可以毫不犹豫开始逐渐建仓了。","html":"嗯，国际经济界专家普遍认同的现时经济衰退警戒线的美指水平是98.5，达到这个位置长线投资者其实已经可以毫不犹豫开始逐渐建仓了。"},{"id":1704695,"gmtCreate":1562983402884,"gmtModify":1562983402884,"authorId":3493972647236492,"author":{"id":3493972647236492,"authorId":3493972647236492,"name":"yuripapa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c5d74bc05fe5455fec398da15a1fda9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3519118526598779,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3519118526598779,"authorId":3519118526598779,"name":"王囧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":999393139,"type":1,"supId":1704656,"prevId":1704674,"content":"英镑对美指影响也只是短期，因为英国央行目前的利率空间也有限，若是有协议脱欧明年甚至普遍预期要加息，把宝压在一个风险事件上不明智的事，而且黄金的表层相关因素是美指，底层其实是美国通胀保值债券tips，建议了解下","text":"英镑对美指影响也只是短期，因为英国央行目前的利率空间也有限，若是有协议脱欧明年甚至普遍预期要加息，把宝压在一个风险事件上不明智的事，而且黄金的表层相关因素是美指，底层其实是美国通胀保值债券tips，建议了解下","html":"英镑对美指影响也只是短期，因为英国央行目前的利率空间也有限，若是有协议脱欧明年甚至普遍预期要加息，把宝压在一个风险事件上不明智的事，而且黄金的表层相关因素是美指，底层其实是美国通胀保值债券tips，建议了解下"}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":1705978,"gmtCreate":1563149683985,"gmtModify":1563149683985,"authorId":3482450724407081,"author":{"id":3482450724407081,"authorId":3482450724407081,"name":"木木木林","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":999393139,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"短期到92黄金不得1500","text":"短期到92黄金不得1500","html":"短期到92黄金不得1500","likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"subComments":[{"id":1706106,"gmtCreate":1563156498509,"gmtModify":1563156498509,"authorId":3482450724407081,"author":{"id":3482450724407081,"authorId":3482450724407081,"name":"木木木林","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3519118526598779,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3519118526598779,"authorId":3519118526598779,"name":"王囧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":999393139,"type":1,"supId":1705978,"prevId":1706050,"content":"嗯嗯","text":"嗯嗯","html":"嗯嗯"},{"id":1706050,"gmtCreate":1563154409609,"gmtModify":1563154409609,"authorId":3519118526598779,"author":{"id":3519118526598779,"authorId":3519118526598779,"name":"王囧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":999393139,"type":1,"supId":1705978,"prevId":0,"content":"1500恐怕是上限","text":"1500恐怕是上限","html":"1500恐怕是上限"}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":1704663,"gmtCreate":1562981742858,"gmtModify":1562988908571,"authorId":3493972647236492,"author":{"id":3493972647236492,"authorId":3493972647236492,"name":"yuripapa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c5d74bc05fe5455fec398da15a1fda9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":999393139,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"另外你要知道欧洲央行的宽松工具是没有美联储多的，利率已经超低，国债收益率已经是负的，而美国相比仍然有不少宽松工具可用，所以欧/美下行空间有限，加上经济下行期日元作为更强的避险货币压制美元，日本央行的货币政策空间更少，美元要一飞冲天也受不少限制","text":"另外你要知道欧洲央行的宽松工具是没有美联储多的，利率已经超低，国债收益率已经是负的，而美国相比仍然有不少宽松工具可用，所以欧/美下行空间有限，加上经济下行期日元作为更强的避险货币压制美元，日本央行的货币政策空间更少，美元要一飞冲天也受不少限制","html":"另外你要知道欧洲央行的宽松工具是没有美联储多的，利率已经超低，国债收益率已经是负的，而美国相比仍然有不少宽松工具可用，所以欧/美下行空间有限，加上经济下行期日元作为更强的避险货币压制美元，日本央行的货币政策空间更少，美元要一飞冲天也受不少限制","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":1706110,"gmtCreate":1563156632459,"gmtModify":1563156632459,"authorId":3513582340167121,"author":{"id":3513582340167121,"authorId":3513582340167121,"name":"格局一下","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":999393139,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"呵呵，做空美指，做多黄金。","text":"呵呵，做空美指，做多黄金。","html":"呵呵，做空美指，做多黄金。","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/999393139"}