$黄金主连(GCma_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2019-07-13

$黄金主连(GCmain)$ 金价上涨的硬核逻辑永远只有一个，就是美元指数的疲软，现阶段黄金还会上行吗，我认为还会，但高度已经极其有限，外汇美元的多空比现在是空头略多于多头，而美指在降息之后，可能会在短期内到92左右，那时候就是金价的最高峰值，然后就是美指的一路继续上行，所以依旧维持到明年的预判，金价会随着美指相反的方向运行，然而美指下行空间已经不大了，到了明年美指可能会上行到107附近，那个时候，黄金会有一个绝对的低点，就是长期做多的时候到了，而今年下半年，只需要静等美指在降息之后的走势即可，做多美指，做空黄金

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

yuripapa
2019-07-13
yuripapa
我抱类似的观点但你太极端，美指上破103历史上看已经达到了可以引发全球经济海啸的地步，何况对美指最敏感的欧美汇率期货已冲破长期重要阻力位，美指真要破了100关口我就全仓做多黄金安心拿着了
- yuripapa回复huobi_io:
  别长线了，加税了，刚想今天亚盘加仓来着，这下又要飞一阵了
- huobi_io回复yuripapa:
  美元到98.5了，可以长线做多黄金了吗？
- 王囧回复yuripapa:
  恩，你说得没错，也很细致，但我觉得如果谁先崩，肯定是欧元，欧元对美元的上升趋势很有可能是昙花一现，而美联储现阶段有特意配合特朗普表演的意思，过于夸大了美国经济的风险，大周期来看，黄金已经处于牛市孕育期，美国也并没有办法解决每十年都要面临一次的经济衰退，而且这一次的衰退将持续最久，甚至有可能颠覆美国以后在世界的话语权。
- yuripapa回复王囧:
  嗯，国际经济界专家普遍认同的现时经济衰退警戒线的美指水平是98.5，达到这个位置长线投资者其实已经可以毫不犹豫开始逐渐建仓了。
- yuripapa回复王囧:
  英镑对美指影响也只是短期，因为英国央行目前的利率空间也有限，若是有协议脱欧明年甚至普遍预期要加息，把宝压在一个风险事件上不明智的事，而且黄金的表层相关因素是美指，底层其实是美国通胀保值债券tips，建议了解下
木木木林
2019-07-15
木木木林
短期到92黄金不得1500
- 木木木林回复王囧:
  嗯嗯
- 王囧:
  1500恐怕是上限
yuripapa
2019-07-13
yuripapa
另外你要知道欧洲央行的宽松工具是没有美联储多的，利率已经超低，国债收益率已经是负的，而美国相比仍然有不少宽松工具可用，所以欧/美下行空间有限，加上经济下行期日元作为更强的避险货币压制美元，日本央行的货币政策空间更少，美元要一飞冲天也受不少限制
格局一下
2019-07-15
格局一下
呵呵，做空美指，做多黄金。

发表看法

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