云浮似海
2020-03-05
$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$
$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$
$三倍做多标普500ETF(UPRO)$
$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$
想问下,如果遇到经济危机熊市,指数跌了40%,3倍做多的杠杆ETF,理论上会跌120%,那时这个标的ETF会怎么样?退市?还是合股?
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出没在交易圈的情报员
2020-03-06
出没在交易圈的情报员
下面的那些数据是我知道的有些etf的做法,不代表大多数哈,所以你看积累净值涨跌幅和约定的单位涨跌幅不是对应的,这个有再平衡措施,数学模型应该就是向上向下无限接近0和无限接近无限多的渐近线,如果考虑到杠反的损耗,计算就更复杂了,结论就是,可能即便亏损这么多,最终净值不会那么准确的乘以几倍或者简单加个负号,而是一条无限接近0的渐近线,但到不了0。不保证精确,但大致逻辑是这样
入水而深
回复
云浮似海
:
其实就是一根木头,你不断去削百分之几,永远也削不完。
云浮似海
:
谢谢!!涨知识了!
出没在交易圈的情报员
2020-03-06
出没在交易圈的情报员
理论上不会有类似情况吧,美股是有熔断机制的,期货市场曾因为大幅下跌而被临时停止交易,所以如果一天熔断几次还下跌,fed和sec一定会有管理措施出来,另外etf的份额是不断变化的,市值也是不断变化的,市值减去管理等手续费,和税费,除以份额等于净值,所以你的问题可能是单边不回撤的理想环境下,动态的结果没法用静态基准来计算,即便不考虑这点,杠反etf也属于15秒计算一次净值,日净值属于多次计算的积累净值
美股盘前盘后交易者
2020-03-06
美股盘前盘后交易者
理论上不是跌120%,肯定会比120%小,假设四天跌了40%,一天就是跌了10%,该三倍ETF的价格应该是0.9的四次方,就是跌之前价格的65%
阿拉斯加雪橇鱼
回复
芝麻计划首席执行官
:
如果真是这样,正反锁仓各一半稳赚不赔
阿拉斯加雪橇鱼
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芝麻计划首席执行官
:
对,反正亏不完hhh
芝麻计划首席执行官
回复
阿拉斯加雪橇鱼
:
这么算的话,怎么也不会亏100%啊
阿拉斯加雪橇鱼
回复
芝麻计划首席执行官
:
不是啊,合股就会有几个不同的点位。比如跌20%合一次股,合完再跌20%
芝麻计划首席执行官
回复
阿拉斯加雪橇鱼
:
但是就算合股,最多也是亏100%,我个人觉如果当天跌40%,那么三倍etf要么就退市了,或者价格为0.001USD每一股,亦或者提高持有者的持仓成本价,按亏120%计算
全部11条回复
哦啦啦_
2020-09-11
哦啦啦_
下跌是不可能到0的,但ETF这东西要是真跌这么厉害就直接清盘了,不过这个可能性不存在,因为美股有熔断机制,跌幅超过20%就停盘了,所以三倍ETF最多也就跌60%的样子
不一样的焰火
2020-03-05
不一样的焰火
还剩原来的0.216倍
无所畏惧的人
回复
辣鸡二手东
:
0.6*0.6*0.6,楼主的数学水平堪忧呀,哪有下跌120%的说法。。
辣鸡二手东
:
怎么算出来的?
樱丸小头子
2020-03-05
樱丸小头子
你听过渐近线吗?[你懂的][你懂的][你懂的]
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