云浮似海
2020-03-05
$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$
$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$
$三倍做多标普500ETF(UPRO)$
$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$
想问下，如果遇到经济危机熊市，指数跌了40%，3倍做多的杠杆ETF，理论上会跌120%，那时这个标的ETF会怎么样？退市？还是合股？
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
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出没在交易圈的情报员
2020-03-06
出没在交易圈的情报员
下面的那些数据是我知道的有些etf的做法，不代表大多数哈，所以你看积累净值涨跌幅和约定的单位涨跌幅不是对应的，这个有再平衡措施，数学模型应该就是向上向下无限接近0和无限接近无限多的渐近线，如果考虑到杠反的损耗，计算就更复杂了，结论就是，可能即便亏损这么多，最终净值不会那么准确的乘以几倍或者简单加个负号，而是一条无限接近0的渐近线，但到不了0。不保证精确，但大致逻辑是这样
入水而深
回复
云浮似海
:
其实就是一根木头，你不断去削百分之几，永远也削不完。
云浮似海
:
谢谢！！涨知识了！
出没在交易圈的情报员
2020-03-06
出没在交易圈的情报员
理论上不会有类似情况吧，美股是有熔断机制的，期货市场曾因为大幅下跌而被临时停止交易，所以如果一天熔断几次还下跌，fed和sec一定会有管理措施出来，另外etf的份额是不断变化的，市值也是不断变化的，市值减去管理等手续费，和税费，除以份额等于净值，所以你的问题可能是单边不回撤的理想环境下，动态的结果没法用静态基准来计算，即便不考虑这点，杠反etf也属于15秒计算一次净值，日净值属于多次计算的积累净值
美股盘前盘后交易者
2020-03-06
美股盘前盘后交易者
理论上不是跌120%，肯定会比120%小，假设四天跌了40%，一天就是跌了10%，该三倍ETF的价格应该是0.9的四次方，就是跌之前价格的65%
阿拉斯加雪橇鱼
回复
芝麻计划首席执行官
:
如果真是这样，正反锁仓各一半稳赚不赔
阿拉斯加雪橇鱼
回复
芝麻计划首席执行官
:
对，反正亏不完hhh
芝麻计划首席执行官
回复
阿拉斯加雪橇鱼
:
这么算的话，怎么也不会亏100％啊
阿拉斯加雪橇鱼
回复
芝麻计划首席执行官
:
不是啊，合股就会有几个不同的点位。比如跌20%合一次股，合完再跌20%
芝麻计划首席执行官
回复
阿拉斯加雪橇鱼
:
但是就算合股，最多也是亏100％，我个人觉如果当天跌40%，那么三倍etf要么就退市了，或者价格为0.001USD每一股，亦或者提高持有者的持仓成本价，按亏120％计算
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哦啦啦_
2020-09-11
哦啦啦_
下跌是不可能到0的，但ETF这东西要是真跌这么厉害就直接清盘了，不过这个可能性不存在，因为美股有熔断机制，跌幅超过20%就停盘了，所以三倍ETF最多也就跌60%的样子
不一样的焰火
2020-03-05
不一样的焰火
还剩原来的0.216倍
无所畏惧的人
回复
辣鸡二手东
:
0.6*0.6*0.6，楼主的数学水平堪忧呀，哪有下跌120%的说法。。
辣鸡二手东
:
怎么算出来的？
樱丸小头子
2020-03-05
樱丸小头子
你听过渐近线吗？[你懂的][你懂的][你懂的]
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