晏南天
2020-06-04
这什么水平文章也推出来,你怎么不仔细看看人家公司盈利多少,不可替代性多强,财富分配制度……笑死人了,人家住帐篷,睡大街怎了,一个月失业金能顶某些地区半年工资。
揭秘美股反弹的真正支撑:5.2万亿美元的新资金
免责声明:上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点,不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
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申屠青竹
2020-06-05
申屠青竹
不可替代性再强,,也只说明这公司不会死,,不代表它还值那么多钱,值多少钱就看经济总体趋势,按理说表现为整体流动性,,但这一次的流动性是鸡血,如果不落地将来还是大问题。走着瞧吧
申屠青竹
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晏南天
:
并不碰大A谢谢。。
我的标的从来都是中概股 [白眼] [呆住]
晏南天
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申屠青竹
:
看看你文到现在才跌了多少,没事您多看看中石油,中国中车,中国重工 [微笑]
申屠青竹
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晏南天
:
走着瞧吧
晏南天
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申屠青竹
:
很好啊,股票有涨有跌才正常,十年前美股涨一点砖家就是见顶,跌一点就是要崩盘,可人家十年翻10倍,哈哈,人家开股市时您爷爷估计都没出生,什么场面没见过 [微笑]
申屠青竹
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晏南天
:
朋友,这几天感觉如何啊。。
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21:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"揭秘美股反弹的真正支撑:5.2万亿美元的新资金","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116078196","media":"金十数据","summary":"在分析股市的时候,国家的经济状态似乎是绝对不可忽视的一个因素。但其实归根结底,股市主要就受两个因素驱动:恐惧与资金流动。它不关心人;不关心2009年新出现的住在帐篷里的无家可归者;也不关心2020年苦","content":"<p><span>在分析股市的时候,国家的经济状态似乎是绝对不可忽视的一个因素。但其实归根结底,股市主要就受两个因素驱动:恐惧与资金流动。它不关心人;不关心2009年新出现的住在帐篷里的无家可归者;也不关心2020年苦苦挣扎的服务员与酒店清洁工。它只关心能获得的资金。</span></p>\n<p><span>而这,也解释了今年美股的上涨——因为市场的资金很多。分析机构ANG Traders指出,从3月23日开始的股市反弹关键全在于资金,它与经济状况或人们的身体健康毫无关联,而现在,股市的资金流动出现放缓迹象。在下面这篇文章里,ANG Traders就探讨了资金数据中出现的一些“问题”,以及它们可能会对股市产生中期影响。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>货币创造</span></b></p>\n<p><span>货币的来源有两个:政府支出和银行信贷。类似地,它也以两种方式被消耗:税收与偿还贷款。</span></p>\n<p><span>联邦政府的公共“债务”能体现出政府创造了多少货币,需要注意的是,那并不是实际意义上的债务。联邦政府是美元的创造者,所以它不需要去“借”美元——就好像种苹果的果农不需要跟别人借苹果一样。</span></p>\n<p><span>所谓的“债务”指的是美国国债的存量,它只是提供能安全存放美元的付息储蓄账户,而不是将美元存放在不付利息的活期存款账户中。它有助于维持对美元的需求。</span></p>\n<p><span>与贷款不同的是,当一份美债到期时,它的面值金额加上利息会从储蓄账户(债券)转移到持有者的活期存款账户中,这其中并没有资金被消耗(实际上,因为利息支付,还有新资金产生了)。如果美债是真正的贷款,那么这笔钱将不复存在,就好像偿还银行贷款,会消除银行一方账本上的资产一样。</span></p>\n<p><span>自这场疫情危机爆发以来,联邦政府新印货币达2.2万亿美元,再加上银行信贷,共同推动了此次始于3月23日的股市反弹。(见下图)</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98199bf526556b1fa58e3ad6883bc78c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"493\"></p>\n<p><span>其中新增的1万亿美元已经进入国库现金余额(TCB)中且仍未动用,这是尚未通过政府支出进入经济的资金。(见下图)</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fafd087f359d4e923c8b7ddb872b916d\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"438\"></p>\n<p><span>(3月23日后的)新印货币与进入TCB那部分之间的差额正好等于赤字——政府支出比税收多出了1.2万亿美元。下图显示了财政部的每日净支出,可以看见债券出售与赎回的波动被消除了。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c651f9f0b2df7e6017a97360d76a70e6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"502\"></p>\n<p><span>自3月23日以来,美国财政部投入经济的资金比税收多出了1.2万亿美元,而它的账户里还有1.4万亿美元备用。这笔巨大的资金可以用于未来,并且应该可以用来帮助支持股市。</span></p>\n<p><span>除了财政部新印的货币,还有银行系统以银行贷款的形式创造出来的货币,以及美联储以在公开市场上直接购买资产(量化宽松)所创造的货币。自3月23日以来,美联储市场公开操作账户(SOMA)增持了近3万亿美元的资产(见下图)。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bd9f74e6cfd610cbc6e9c0ae0c2f04d\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"591\"></p>\n<p><span>银行信贷的扩张比SOMA早一个月。自2月中旬以来,银行已发放了1万亿美元的贷款。(如下图)</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94985a993531b79306111f56f14e21af\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"438\"></p>\n<p><span>到目前为止,这场危机中总共创造了5.2万亿美元的新资金,并注入了经济。这就是推动股市上涨的原因。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>资金流动出现放缓迹象?</span></b></p>\n<p><span>然而最近,ANG Traders注意到SOMA和银行业总数据变化的速度有所放缓(上图的蓝色矩形框)。在SOMA方面,流动性的增长几乎停止了。银行数据的下降代表着货币的消耗,这是偿还贷款时才会发生的事情。信贷资金的减少发生在以下几个贷款类别中。(见下图)</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08c9f4c279054600f18afc304509aeb6\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"438\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/512384c4de9257901a0a4ac02b9b0304\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"438\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbffceb0de5b80e97bc9ae2cc60dc82d\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"438\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad273d6e2eae9f465253af6a73f5bf39\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"438\"></p>\n<p><span>信贷减少无益于帮助经济恢复增长。因为偿还贷款,许多本能流向消费者和企业的救济资金都会消失。</span></p>\n<p><span>一个例外是汽车贷款。不同于其他类型的贷款,它已开始趋于稳定。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25dd4021b0313193251bfd1ae047ea59\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"438\"></p>\n<p><span>从资金流动的角度来看,ANG Traders认为,尽管经济不景气,政府和美联储目前仍有充足的待用资金能继续推动股市上涨。然而,信贷资金正在被消耗而不是被创造的现况,以及美联储急剧缩减量化宽松的规模,都意味着人们越来越容易受到市场短期疲软的影响,就如同2008年那样。</span></p>\n<p><span>在2008年,当SOMA与银行信贷都停止增长时,标普500指数(SPX)在开始复苏前遭受了严重的打击。(如下图)</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72ba3af6559863cf4d724c0dfd8541d6\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"438\"></p>\n<p><span>如果SOMA与银行信贷停止提供股市目前上涨所依赖的资金,这次,相同的事情可能会再次发生。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d219621b793d2151f365ecd23486258a\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"438\"></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>揭秘美股反弹的真正支撑:5.2万亿美元的新资金</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n揭秘美股反弹的真正支撑:5.2万亿美元的新资金\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-06-04 21:52 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/hmWQXwVP3q7nG4jPIClJWg><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在分析股市的时候,国家的经济状态似乎是绝对不可忽视的一个因素。但其实归根结底,股市主要就受两个因素驱动:恐惧与资金流动。它不关心人;不关心2009年新出现的住在帐篷里的无家可归者;也不关心2020年苦苦挣扎的服务员与酒店清洁工。它只关心能获得的资金。\n而这,也解释了今年美股的上涨——因为市场的资金很多。分析机构ANG Traders指出,从3月23日开始的股市反弹关键全在于资金,它与经济状况或人们...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/hmWQXwVP3q7nG4jPIClJWg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/hmWQXwVP3q7nG4jPIClJWg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116078196","content_text":"在分析股市的时候,国家的经济状态似乎是绝对不可忽视的一个因素。但其实归根结底,股市主要就受两个因素驱动:恐惧与资金流动。它不关心人;不关心2009年新出现的住在帐篷里的无家可归者;也不关心2020年苦苦挣扎的服务员与酒店清洁工。它只关心能获得的资金。\n而这,也解释了今年美股的上涨——因为市场的资金很多。分析机构ANG Traders指出,从3月23日开始的股市反弹关键全在于资金,它与经济状况或人们的身体健康毫无关联,而现在,股市的资金流动出现放缓迹象。在下面这篇文章里,ANG Traders就探讨了资金数据中出现的一些“问题”,以及它们可能会对股市产生中期影响。\n货币创造\n货币的来源有两个:政府支出和银行信贷。类似地,它也以两种方式被消耗:税收与偿还贷款。\n联邦政府的公共“债务”能体现出政府创造了多少货币,需要注意的是,那并不是实际意义上的债务。联邦政府是美元的创造者,所以它不需要去“借”美元——就好像种苹果的果农不需要跟别人借苹果一样。\n所谓的“债务”指的是美国国债的存量,它只是提供能安全存放美元的付息储蓄账户,而不是将美元存放在不付利息的活期存款账户中。它有助于维持对美元的需求。\n与贷款不同的是,当一份美债到期时,它的面值金额加上利息会从储蓄账户(债券)转移到持有者的活期存款账户中,这其中并没有资金被消耗(实际上,因为利息支付,还有新资金产生了)。如果美债是真正的贷款,那么这笔钱将不复存在,就好像偿还银行贷款,会消除银行一方账本上的资产一样。\n自这场疫情危机爆发以来,联邦政府新印货币达2.2万亿美元,再加上银行信贷,共同推动了此次始于3月23日的股市反弹。(见下图)\n\n其中新增的1万亿美元已经进入国库现金余额(TCB)中且仍未动用,这是尚未通过政府支出进入经济的资金。(见下图)\n\n(3月23日后的)新印货币与进入TCB那部分之间的差额正好等于赤字——政府支出比税收多出了1.2万亿美元。下图显示了财政部的每日净支出,可以看见债券出售与赎回的波动被消除了。\n\n自3月23日以来,美国财政部投入经济的资金比税收多出了1.2万亿美元,而它的账户里还有1.4万亿美元备用。这笔巨大的资金可以用于未来,并且应该可以用来帮助支持股市。\n除了财政部新印的货币,还有银行系统以银行贷款的形式创造出来的货币,以及美联储以在公开市场上直接购买资产(量化宽松)所创造的货币。自3月23日以来,美联储市场公开操作账户(SOMA)增持了近3万亿美元的资产(见下图)。\n\n银行信贷的扩张比SOMA早一个月。自2月中旬以来,银行已发放了1万亿美元的贷款。(如下图)\n\n到目前为止,这场危机中总共创造了5.2万亿美元的新资金,并注入了经济。这就是推动股市上涨的原因。\n资金流动出现放缓迹象?\n然而最近,ANG Traders注意到SOMA和银行业总数据变化的速度有所放缓(上图的蓝色矩形框)。在SOMA方面,流动性的增长几乎停止了。银行数据的下降代表着货币的消耗,这是偿还贷款时才会发生的事情。信贷资金的减少发生在以下几个贷款类别中。(见下图)\n\n\n\n\n信贷减少无益于帮助经济恢复增长。因为偿还贷款,许多本能流向消费者和企业的救济资金都会消失。\n一个例外是汽车贷款。不同于其他类型的贷款,它已开始趋于稳定。\n\n从资金流动的角度来看,ANG 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