揭秘美股反弹的真正支撑：5.2万亿美元的新资金

金十数据2020-06-04

在分析股市的时候，国家的经济状态似乎是绝对不可忽视的一个因素。但其实归根结底，股市主要就受两个因素驱动：恐惧与资金流动。它不关心人；不关心2009年新出现的住在帐篷里的无家可归者；也不关心2020年苦苦挣扎的服务员与酒店清洁工。它只关心能获得的资金。而这，也解释了今年美股的上涨——因为市场的资金很多。分析机构ANG Traders指出，从3月23日开始的股市反弹关键全在于资金，它与经济状况或人们...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

阿呆宝
2020-06-05
阿呆宝
到目前为止，这场危机中总共创造了5.2万亿美元的新资金，并注入了经济。这就是推动股市上涨的原因。
YuanJ
2020-06-05
YuanJ
Liquidity drives market
- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
梓源之源
2020-06-05
梓源之源
牛市啊
阿里帕帕
2020-06-05
阿里帕帕
WQNMLGB！按照各种“分析师”观点看跌经济做空股市能赔的裤头都不剩。总之美联储就一句话：美股永远不跌！是的，来跟我一起读：美股永远不跌！
- 申屠青竹:
  都熔断的裤衩都没了，，还死抱着这两句？？ [笑哭]
  发现蓝筹，谨慎入场才是真的好吧。。
  乱出手在哪里都会死得很惨
宁死不屈的韭菜
2020-06-04
宁死不屈的韭菜
你写了这么多，但我没看懂
自由财富之路
2020-06-04
自由财富之路
就像A股，如果国家队进场，就不一样，这只能是短期效应而已。今年保守一点吧。

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116078196?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2020-06-04 21:52","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1116078196","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"揭秘美股反弹的真正支撑：5.2万亿美元的新资金","media":"金十数据","content":"<div>\n<p>在分析股市的时候，国家的经济状态似乎是绝对不可忽视的一个因素。但其实归根结底，股市主要就受两个因素驱动：恐惧与资金流动。它不关心人；不关心2009年新出现的住在帐篷里的无家可归者；也不关心2020年苦苦挣扎的服务员与酒店清洁工。它只关心能获得的资金。\n而这，也解释了今年美股的上涨——因为市场的资金很多。分析机构ANG Traders指出，从3月23日开始的股市反弹关键全在于资金，它与经济状况或人们...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/hmWQXwVP3q7nG4jPIClJWg\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"jssj","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>揭秘美股反弹的真正支撑：5.2万亿美元的新资金</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n揭秘美股反弹的真正支撑：5.2万亿美元的新资金\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-06-04 21:52 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/hmWQXwVP3q7nG4jPIClJWg><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在分析股市的时候，国家的经济状态似乎是绝对不可忽视的一个因素。但其实归根结底，股市主要就受两个因素驱动：恐惧与资金流动。它不关心人；不关心2009年新出现的住在帐篷里的无家可归者；也不关心2020年苦苦挣扎的服务员与酒店清洁工。它只关心能获得的资金。\n而这，也解释了今年美股的上涨——因为市场的资金很多。分析机构ANG Traders指出，从3月23日开始的股市反弹关键全在于资金，它与经济状况或人们...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/hmWQXwVP3q7nG4jPIClJWg\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/hmWQXwVP3q7nG4jPIClJWg","article_id":"1116078196","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116078196","pubTimestamp":1591278755,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"jssj","name":"金十数据"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"在分析股市的时候，国家的经济状态似乎是绝对不可忽视的一个因素。但其实归根结底，股市主要就受两个因素驱动：恐惧与资金流动。它不关心人；不关心2009年新出现的住在帐篷里的无家可归者；也不关心2020年苦","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"Reveal the Real Support of U.S. Stock Rebound: $5.2 trillion in New Funds","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a36125dc2a14a2ee55dff77a8290780e","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"在分析股市的时候，国家的经济状态似乎是绝对不可忽视的一个因素。但其实归根结底，股市主要就受两个因素驱动：恐惧与资金流动。它不关心人；不关心2009年新出现的住在帐篷里的无家可归者；也不关心2020年苦苦挣扎的服务员与酒店清洁工。它只关心能获得的资金。\n而这，也解释了今年美股的上涨——因为市场的资金很多。分析机构ANG Traders指出，从3月23日开始的股市反弹关键全在于资金，它与经济状况或人们的身体健康毫无关联，而现在，股市的资金流动出现放缓迹象。在下面这篇文章里，ANG Traders就探讨了资金数据中出现的一些“问题”，以及它们可能会对股市产生中期影响。\n货币创造\n货币的来源有两个：政府支出和银行信贷。类似地，它也以两种方式被消耗：税收与偿还贷款。\n联邦政府的公共“债务”能体现出政府创造了多少货币，需要注意的是，那并不是实际意义上的债务。联邦政府是美元的创造者，所以它不需要去“借”美元——就好像种苹果的果农不需要跟别人借苹果一样。\n所谓的“债务”指的是美国国债的存量，它只是提供能安全存放美元的付息储蓄账户，而不是将美元存放在不付利息的活期存款账户中。它有助于维持对美元的需求。\n与贷款不同的是，当一份美债到期时，它的面值金额加上利息会从储蓄账户（债券）转移到持有者的活期存款账户中，这其中并没有资金被消耗（实际上，因为利息支付，还有新资金产生了）。如果美债是真正的贷款，那么这笔钱将不复存在，就好像偿还银行贷款，会消除银行一方账本上的资产一样。\n自这场疫情危机爆发以来，联邦政府新印货币达2.2万亿美元，再加上银行信贷，共同推动了此次始于3月23日的股市反弹。（见下图）\n\n其中新增的1万亿美元已经进入国库现金余额（TCB）中且仍未动用，这是尚未通过政府支出进入经济的资金。（见下图）\n\n（3月23日后的）新印货币与进入TCB那部分之间的差额正好等于赤字——政府支出比税收多出了1.2万亿美元。下图显示了财政部的每日净支出，可以看见债券出售与赎回的波动被消除了。\n\n自3月23日以来，美国财政部投入经济的资金比税收多出了1.2万亿美元，而它的账户里还有1.4万亿美元备用。这笔巨大的资金可以用于未来，并且应该可以用来帮助支持股市。\n除了财政部新印的货币，还有银行系统以银行贷款的形式创造出来的货币，以及美联储以在公开市场上直接购买资产（量化宽松）所创造的货币。自3月23日以来，美联储市场公开操作账户（SOMA）增持了近3万亿美元的资产（见下图）。\n\n银行信贷的扩张比SOMA早一个月。自2月中旬以来，银行已发放了1万亿美元的贷款。（如下图）\n\n到目前为止，这场危机中总共创造了5.2万亿美元的新资金，并注入了经济。这就是推动股市上涨的原因。\n资金流动出现放缓迹象？\n然而最近，ANG Traders注意到SOMA和银行业总数据变化的速度有所放缓（上图的蓝色矩形框）。在SOMA方面，流动性的增长几乎停止了。银行数据的下降代表着货币的消耗，这是偿还贷款时才会发生的事情。信贷资金的减少发生在以下几个贷款类别中。（见下图）\n\n\n\n\n信贷减少无益于帮助经济恢复增长。因为偿还贷款，许多本能流向消费者和企业的救济资金都会消失。\n一个例外是汽车贷款。不同于其他类型的贷款，它已开始趋于稳定。\n\n从资金流动的角度来看，ANG Traders认为，尽管经济不景气，政府和美联储目前仍有充足的待用资金能继续推动股市上涨。然而，信贷资金正在被消耗而不是被创造的现况，以及美联储急剧缩减量化宽松的规模，都意味着人们越来越容易受到市场短期疲软的影响，就如同2008年那样。\n在2008年，当SOMA与银行信贷都停止增长时，标普500指数（SPX）在开始复苏前遭受了严重的打击。（如下图）\n\n如果SOMA与银行信贷停止提供股市目前上涨所依赖的资金，这次，相同的事情可能会再次发生。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":958516073,"gmtCreate":1591312628092,"gmtModify":1704195289576,"author":{"id":"3447668806852675","authorId":"3447668806852675","name":"阿呆宝","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ec16097061155007daddaf7a9a17206","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"到目前为止，这场危机中总共创造了5.2万亿美元的新资金，并注入了经济。这就是推动股市上涨的原因。","listText":"到目前为止，这场危机中总共创造了5.2万亿美元的新资金，并注入了经济。这就是推动股市上涨的原因。","text":"到目前为止，这场危机中总共创造了5.2万亿美元的新资金，并注入了经济。这就是推动股市上涨的原因。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/958516073","repostId":1116078196,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":958513708,"gmtCreate":1591311055404,"gmtModify":1704195286806,"author":{"id":"3551872910440668","authorId":"3551872910440668","name":"YuanJ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Liquidity drives market&nbsp;","listText":"Liquidity drives market&nbsp;","text":"Liquidity drives market","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/958513708","repostId":1116078196,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":2507212,"gmtCreate":1591321695650,"gmtModify":1591321695650,"authorId":3527667803686145,"author":{"id":3527667803686145,"authorId":3527667803686145,"name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":958513708,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":958510076,"gmtCreate":1591308778395,"gmtModify":1704195282976,"author":{"id":"3544180720938679","authorId":"3544180720938679","name":"梓源之源","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4af44e2632a2559e0448c71e1dbef791","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"牛市啊","listText":"牛市啊","text":"牛市啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/958510076","repostId":1116078196,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":958502331,"gmtCreate":1591291205923,"gmtModify":1704195252126,"author":{"id":"3545916274386847","authorId":"3545916274386847","name":"阿里帕帕","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7834865e3b2489f77f368e11da100ff8","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"WQNMLGB！按照各种“分析师”观点看跌经济做空股市能赔的裤头都不剩。总之美联储就一句话：美股永远不跌！是的，来跟我一起读：美股永远不跌！","listText":"WQNMLGB！按照各种“分析师”观点看跌经济做空股市能赔的裤头都不剩。总之美联储就一句话：美股永远不跌！是的，来跟我一起读：美股永远不跌！","text":"WQNMLGB！按照各种“分析师”观点看跌经济做空股市能赔的裤头都不剩。总之美联储就一句话：美股永远不跌！是的，来跟我一起读：美股永远不跌！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/958502331","repostId":1116078196,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":2506520,"gmtCreate":1591294335958,"gmtModify":1591294335958,"authorId":3485728882911187,"author":{"id":3485728882911187,"authorId":3485728882911187,"name":"申屠青竹","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27eba484160e82091e8187ad8179e2f3","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-3","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"偶像虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.05.12","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":958502331,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"都熔断的裤衩都没了，，还死抱着这两句？？ [笑哭]<br>\n发现蓝筹，谨慎入场才是真的好吧。。<br>\n乱出手在哪里都会死得很惨","text":"都熔断的裤衩都没了，，还死抱着这两句？？ [笑哭]<br>\n发现蓝筹，谨慎入场才是真的好吧。。<br>\n乱出手在哪里都会死得很惨","html":"都熔断的裤衩都没了，，还死抱着这两句？？ [笑哭]<br>\n发现蓝筹，谨慎入场才是真的好吧。。<br>\n乱出手在哪里都会死得很惨"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":958254505,"gmtCreate":1591284661407,"gmtModify":1704195215361,"author":{"id":"3523335266623437","authorId":"3523335266623437","name":"宁死不屈的韭菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/056b6c5cc48e2a89252ed72f9741ea86","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75944ad144f2566ba526ce9b292d3cd2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"你写了这么多，但我没看懂","listText":"你写了这么多，但我没看懂","text":"你写了这么多，但我没看懂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/958254505","repostId":1116078196,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":958259132,"gmtCreate":1591283743526,"gmtModify":1704195206510,"author":{"id":"3447258680782140","authorId":"3447258680782140","name":"自由财富之路","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cdc53929b69f8b806e35f1372121ca4","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6295840391b9cdc17115677ba51429c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"就像A股，如果国家队进场，就不一样，这只能是短期效应而已。今年保守一点吧。","listText":"就像A股，如果国家队进场，就不一样，这只能是短期效应而已。今年保守一点吧。","text":"就像A股，如果国家队进场，就不一样，这只能是短期效应而已。今年保守一点吧。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/958259132","repostId":1116078196,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":47,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":4,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.26.2","shortVersion":"4.26.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1116078196"}