陈玉歌
2020-05-11
涨3%,我知道为什么是创两年新高[DOGE]
@小虎活动:
【有奖竞猜】腾讯股价创两年新高,财报能否再推波助澜?
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 还会发布今年第一季度的财报,不知是否能进一步拉动市场情绪。那就要凭业绩说话辣~</p> <p>在此之前,小虎君和您一起预看下腾讯本次表现:</p> <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1d7b8859e6e10d8c75ad05589249303\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"></p> <p><b>回顾上季度</b></p> <p>腾讯营收<span>1057</span>亿元(<span>+24.6%yoy</span>)优于预期,<span>EPS2.12</span>(<span>+44%yoy</span>)略低于预期。当季度游戏业务及支付<span>&</span>云业务加速扩张,递延收入和资本开支的增长,利于支撑这两部分业务保持高速增长。</p> <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aab9b4b544bdc94ac0733ba8345fa1a\" tg-width=\"1371\" tg-height=\"575\"></p> <p>收入端:游戏业务加速,云业务前景稳定</p> <p>当季金融科技贡献率(<span>28.3%</span>)已与游戏(<span>28.6%</span>)相当,二者贡献率累计达<span>57%</span>,其中递延收入同比增加<span>43.8%</span>,环比<span>+12%</span>,进一步肯定游戏业务复苏;资本开支同比增长<span>269%</span>,有望驱动金融科技业务保持高增速,双核驱动亦利于业绩稳定。</p> <p>利润端:各项成本开支分化,利润不及预期</p> <p>四季度增值服务成本增长<span>28%</span>,游戏业务毛利率环比下降<span>1.2pcts</span>;网络广告成本同比下降<span>14%</span>,毛利率环比提升<span>5.5pct</span>;支付和云成本增长<span>32%</span>,毛利率环比提升<span>0.35pcts.</span></p> 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腾讯营收1057亿元(+24.6%yoy)优于预期,EPS2.12(+44%yoy)略低于预期。当季度游戏业务及支付&云业务加速扩张,递延收入和资本开支的增长,利于支撑这两部分业务保持高速增长。 收入端:游戏业务加速,云业务前景稳定 当季金融科技贡献率(28.3%)已与游戏(28.6%)相当,二者贡献率累计达57%,其中递延收入同比增加43.8%,环比+12%,进一步肯定游戏业务复苏;资本开支同比增长269%,有望驱动金融科技业务保持高增速,双核驱动亦利于业绩稳定。 利润端:各项成本开支分化,利润不及预期 四季度增值服务成本增长28%,游戏业务毛利率环比下降1.2pcts;网络广告成本同比下降14%,毛利率环比提升5.5pct;支付和云成本增长32%,毛利率环比提升0.35pcts. 展望本季度 彭博预计腾讯当季营收1010.60亿元,EPS为2.54元。 市场分析预计,公司手游同比增速有望达到45%-50%,有效对冲疫情对端游、广告、金融及云业务的负面影响。 《和平精英》、《王者荣耀》表现超预期,叠加Supercell并表,预计一季度手游增速超过45%。从游戏表现来看,受疫情影响,腾讯旗下多款手游表现优异,一季度旗下四款手游持续占据国内流水Top10。从历史经验来看,自2017Q1以来,受版号影响,腾讯手游仅在2018H2及2019Q1跑输行业增速,2020Q1,手游市场同比增速约47%,历史经验能够支撑判断。广告业务方面,朋友圈第四条广告的放开,以及消费的恢复,有望带动广告业务的增长。 综合来看,疫情对公司一季度财务业绩的影响不大,手游业务受益于疫情影响,有望弥补端游、广告、金融及云业务的下滑。短期来看,收入及利润增长主要由手游和社交广告驱动。疫情对金融科技、广告及云业务的负面影响将很快恢复,长期逻辑不变。 最后 虎友们如何看待$腾讯控股(00700)$ 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