医师
2020-08-04
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@Ivan_甘灿荣:
【策略推荐】做多金银比,当前最佳的对冲机会
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/VIDEO/C20200731040008229/20200731052234038\" target=\"_blank\"><b>大家可回看上周直播视频</b></a>)。以当前黄金的价格涨幅,盲目追多随时会面临大幅回撤的风险(5-10%的盘面价格回撤),尽管我并不确定具体发生回撤的时间点,<span style=\"color:rgba(255,138,0,1);\">但风险总需要提防,此时若要跟进贵金属投资,最佳的方式就是对冲,做多金银比价。</span></p> <p>做法和之前做多纳指做空标普的做法一样,只是标的物变成了做多黄金和做空白银。手数计算和市值计算如下:</p> <h2><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3b8dfa7f8c3b08b47f71f904843a64f\" tg-width=\"1311\" tg-height=\"732\"><b>历史上的金银比</b></h2> <p>金银比价在贵金属投资中相当盛行,在过去20年中,金银比一直维持在40-80的区间内(金价除以银价),<span style=\"color:rgba(255,139,0,1);\">因此在过去很长一段时间内,高于80时做空黄金做多白银,或者低于40时做多黄金做空白银,均有不错的收益。</span>但是历史可以借鉴,但不能简单重复和套用,任何价格区间只要内在基本面逻辑发生变化,价格区间也会发生巨变。在1985年以前金银比价的价格区间在20-40之间,但从1985年美元进入贬值周期后,<span style=\"color:rgba(255,130,0,1);\">金银比价的价格区间上抬至40-80之间,原因在于美元贬值,抗通胀属性更强的黄金会更强于白银,故造成两者比价区间发生跳跃。</span></p> <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a973b366151220a65b987315acf7cc7\" tg-width=\"1464\" tg-height=\"823\">而当前由于新冠疫情导致美联储无限印钞,市场对通胀预期进一步加剧,<span style=\"color:rgba(255,130,0,1);\">使得金银比价区间再一次发生跳跃至80-120(估算)</span>,以当前新冠疫情对世界经济的潜在影响以及中美两大经济体的关系恶化,<span style=\"color:rgba(255,139,0,1);\">很难预期金银比价能够再一次回到40-80区间以内。</span>因此当前在金银比价80附近,做多黄金做空白银是一个赢率较高的中长期投资。</p> <h2><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83958cf88ae30345e3fb8a7355630da6\" tg-width=\"1499\" tg-height=\"822\"></h2> <h2><b>黄金涨势未完,白银涨幅已达统计概率</b></h2> <p>黄金的上涨周期达34个月,当前只处于23个月,尽管调整发生,但在时间周期内,调整过后继续做多是合理的。但白银的涨幅从最低点算,已上涨125%,符合历史行白银的脉冲式上涨幅度(一般价格翻倍),<span style=\"color:rgba(255,121,0,1);\">因此在宏观经济仍未发生根本性好转前,白银还能继续涨多少则打很大的问号。</span>所以从此涨幅角度来说,间接也说明做多金银比比较合适。</p> <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7a559ee4e71cd4a7c9c5cf87cb02fa8\" tg-width=\"1765\" tg-height=\"931\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/662726a8eccca0c62ed9543f2a87b0f1\" tg-width=\"1543\" tg-height=\"547\"></p> <p>回顾甘老师的讲课内容:</p> <p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/VIDEO/C20200731040008229/20200731041124305\" target=\"_blank\">第一节:当前市场下的美股对冲策略</a></p> <p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/VIDEO/C20200731040008229/20200731052234038\" target=\"_blank\">第二节:2020年下半年赚钱策略大起底</a></p> <p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GDX\">$黄金矿业ETF(Market Vectors)(GDX)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLV\">$白银ETF(iShares)(SLV)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\" target=\"_blank\">$黄金主连(GCmain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/SImain\" target=\"_blank\">$白银主连(SImain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/PAmain\" target=\"_blank\">$钯金主连(PAmain)$</a></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>周四直播时,向大家详细讲述了黄金的整体投资逻辑和交易情况(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/VIDEO/C20200731040008229/20200731052234038\" target=\"_blank\"><b>大家可回看上周直播视频</b></a>)。以当前黄金的价格涨幅,盲目追多随时会面临大幅回撤的风险(5-10%的盘面价格回撤),尽管我并不确定具体发生回撤的时间点,<span style=\"color:rgba(255,138,0,1);\">但风险总需要提防,此时若要跟进贵金属投资,最佳的方式就是对冲,做多金银比价。</span></p> <p>做法和之前做多纳指做空标普的做法一样,只是标的物变成了做多黄金和做空白银。手数计算和市值计算如下:</p> <h2><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3b8dfa7f8c3b08b47f71f904843a64f\" tg-width=\"1311\" tg-height=\"732\"><b>历史上的金银比</b></h2> <p>金银比价在贵金属投资中相当盛行,在过去20年中,金银比一直维持在40-80的区间内(金价除以银价),<span style=\"color:rgba(255,139,0,1);\">因此在过去很长一段时间内,高于80时做空黄金做多白银,或者低于40时做多黄金做空白银,均有不错的收益。</span>但是历史可以借鉴,但不能简单重复和套用,任何价格区间只要内在基本面逻辑发生变化,价格区间也会发生巨变。在1985年以前金银比价的价格区间在20-40之间,但从1985年美元进入贬值周期后,<span style=\"color:rgba(255,130,0,1);\">金银比价的价格区间上抬至40-80之间,原因在于美元贬值,抗通胀属性更强的黄金会更强于白银,故造成两者比价区间发生跳跃。</span></p> <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a973b366151220a65b987315acf7cc7\" tg-width=\"1464\" tg-height=\"823\">而当前由于新冠疫情导致美联储无限印钞,市场对通胀预期进一步加剧,<span style=\"color:rgba(255,130,0,1);\">使得金银比价区间再一次发生跳跃至80-120(估算)</span>,以当前新冠疫情对世界经济的潜在影响以及中美两大经济体的关系恶化,<span style=\"color:rgba(255,139,0,1);\">很难预期金银比价能够再一次回到40-80区间以内。</span>因此当前在金银比价80附近,做多黄金做空白银是一个赢率较高的中长期投资。</p> <h2><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83958cf88ae30345e3fb8a7355630da6\" tg-width=\"1499\" tg-height=\"822\"></h2> <h2><b>黄金涨势未完,白银涨幅已达统计概率</b></h2> <p>黄金的上涨周期达34个月,当前只处于23个月,尽管调整发生,但在时间周期内,调整过后继续做多是合理的。但白银的涨幅从最低点算,已上涨125%,符合历史行白银的脉冲式上涨幅度(一般价格翻倍),<span style=\"color:rgba(255,121,0,1);\">因此在宏观经济仍未发生根本性好转前,白银还能继续涨多少则打很大的问号。</span>所以从此涨幅角度来说,间接也说明做多金银比比较合适。</p> <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7a559ee4e71cd4a7c9c5cf87cb02fa8\" tg-width=\"1765\" tg-height=\"931\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/662726a8eccca0c62ed9543f2a87b0f1\" tg-width=\"1543\" tg-height=\"547\"></p> <p>回顾甘老师的讲课内容:</p> <p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/VIDEO/C20200731040008229/20200731041124305\" target=\"_blank\">第一节:当前市场下的美股对冲策略</a></p> <p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/VIDEO/C20200731040008229/20200731052234038\" target=\"_blank\">第二节:2020年下半年赚钱策略大起底</a></p> <p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GDX\">$黄金矿业ETF(Market Vectors)(GDX)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLV\">$白银ETF(iShares)(SLV)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\" target=\"_blank\">$黄金主连(GCmain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/SImain\" target=\"_blank\">$白银主连(SImain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/PAmain\" target=\"_blank\">$钯金主连(PAmain)$</a></p></body></html>","text":"周四直播时,向大家详细讲述了黄金的整体投资逻辑和交易情况(大家可回看上周直播视频)。以当前黄金的价格涨幅,盲目追多随时会面临大幅回撤的风险(5-10%的盘面价格回撤),尽管我并不确定具体发生回撤的时间点,但风险总需要提防,此时若要跟进贵金属投资,最佳的方式就是对冲,做多金银比价。 做法和之前做多纳指做空标普的做法一样,只是标的物变成了做多黄金和做空白银。手数计算和市值计算如下: 历史上的金银比 金银比价在贵金属投资中相当盛行,在过去20年中,金银比一直维持在40-80的区间内(金价除以银价),因此在过去很长一段时间内,高于80时做空黄金做多白银,或者低于40时做多黄金做空白银,均有不错的收益。但是历史可以借鉴,但不能简单重复和套用,任何价格区间只要内在基本面逻辑发生变化,价格区间也会发生巨变。在1985年以前金银比价的价格区间在20-40之间,但从1985年美元进入贬值周期后,金银比价的价格区间上抬至40-80之间,原因在于美元贬值,抗通胀属性更强的黄金会更强于白银,故造成两者比价区间发生跳跃。 而当前由于新冠疫情导致美联储无限印钞,市场对通胀预期进一步加剧,使得金银比价区间再一次发生跳跃至80-120(估算),以当前新冠疫情对世界经济的潜在影响以及中美两大经济体的关系恶化,很难预期金银比价能够再一次回到40-80区间以内。因此当前在金银比价80附近,做多黄金做空白银是一个赢率较高的中长期投资。 黄金涨势未完,白银涨幅已达统计概率 黄金的上涨周期达34个月,当前只处于23个月,尽管调整发生,但在时间周期内,调整过后继续做多是合理的。但白银的涨幅从最低点算,已上涨125%,符合历史行白银的脉冲式上涨幅度(一般价格翻倍),因此在宏观经济仍未发生根本性好转前,白银还能继续涨多少则打很大的问号。所以从此涨幅角度来说,间接也说明做多金银比比较合适。 回顾甘老师的讲课内容: 第一节:当前市场下的美股对冲策略 第二节:2020年下半年赚钱策略大起底 $黄金矿业ETF(Market Vectors)(GDX)$ $白银ETF(iShares)(SLV)$ $黄金主连(GCmain)$ $白银主连(SImain)$ $钯金主连(PAmain)$","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/945912014","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["GCmain","PAmain","GDX","SImain","SLV"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1633,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":939,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/945824534"}
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