$二倍做多VIX波动_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2020-04-14

$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$

美股过去十年的涨幅很大部分是由公司回购所驱动（lending cost低、高管奖金与股价挂钩），所以二月份的最高点其实是有很多泡沫存在的。反观今天的美股，已从三月最低点反弹25%，我认为向上空间已经所剩无几：1是在疫情接受fed帮助的公司是不可以回购股票的，那公司的股价只能由它真实的经营状况和利润所驱动，而经过疫情的影响，q1q2的财报必定不会好看，现在的价格我认为是虚高的... 2是市场对美国重启经济报很大的希望，可是看看中国现状就知道（中小企业大批量倒闭，招租的铺子满大街都是），就算重启经济，它的恢复速度也是非常缓慢的，当市场意识到这点的时候，乐观情绪退散，美股也不会好看。所以我看空美股。一个月以后来看看自己分析的对不对。

分享我的交易策略

交易策略分享，说一说自己在交易中的那些神操作吧，你的idea说不定价值百万！

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

5fire
2020-04-14
5fire
接上一条，仅凭财报和疫情恶化，也只是看多热情被现实抹杀，震荡或者缓慢下行，波动率的快速拉升机会不大反而会继续下跌，但是赌事件并不是一个盈利的好途径，我更愿意赌长期行情。换句话说，我看空，但我不敢买！
- 5fire回复小十一eleven:
  tvix我觉得未来几年都不会好做了不是不会涨是更难抓住了毕竟上一个十年的高潮已经落幕了乱世和百废待兴的阶段 tvix都没啥意思
- 小十一eleven:
  我觉得你说很有道理诶，我没考虑到阴跌的情况，VIX在这种情况也不会冲高...我也是看空，想捞一笔[捂脸]
小do
2020-04-14
小do
你是个妹子？
- 小十一eleven:
  额哈哈对啊
5fire
2020-04-14
5fire
我个人认为，看待美股首先有个基本共识，长期恒定看涨。基于这个基础在再去考虑是否有做空机会，也就是说虚高本身是美股自然属性的一部分。然后再看现在市场是不是过分乐观，我个人觉得必须有事件推动，而且是美联储不能充分发现和解决的（比如金融机构破产是不被美联储允许的）
Geinibei
2020-04-14
Geinibei
谨慎看空吧，看大摩的财报不及预期，股价没啥反应，市场觉得price in了。这就很难说了，第一季度有的财报还没体现呢。不知道资本多疯狂，接着拉也有可能。
shaun18
2020-04-15
shaun18
有一句话不知该不该说，那就是大多数人看好的东西，往往不会发生，或者即使发生，你也很难以此为策略赚钱捞一笔

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":928511541,"tweetId":"928511541","gmtCreate":1586829251783,"gmtModify":1704362149164,"author":{"id":3545810862852481,"idStr":"3545810862852481","authorId":3545810862852481,"authorIdStr":"3545810862852481","name":"小十一eleven","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf865cc60b80061dc8f74f2cd4091cac","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":47,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[{"themeId":"5f4e0a7185a74ed196abff08008266de","categoryId":"b76d3c59fc044df59779c041b25852a6","name":"分享我的交易策略","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":5f4e0a7185a74ed196abff08008266de}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"交易策略分享，说一说自己在交易中的那些神操作吧，你的idea说不定价值百万！","image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8eaff2e99964ab7a80d92cc196fcd3"}],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TVIX\">$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$</a> 美股过去十年的涨幅很大部分是由公司回购所驱动（lending cost低、高管奖金与股价挂钩），所以二月份的最高点其实是有很多泡沫存在的。反观今天的美股，已从三月最低点反弹25%，我认为向上空间已经所剩无几：1是在疫情接受fed帮助的公司是不可以回购股票的，那公司的股价只能由它真实的经营状况和利润所驱动，而经过疫情的影响，q1q2的财报必定不会好看，现在的价格我认为是虚高的... 2是市场对美国重启经济报很大的希望，可是看看中国现状就知道（中小企业大批量倒闭，招租的铺子满大街都是），就算重启经济，它的恢复速度也是非常缓慢的，当市场意识到这点的时候，乐观情绪退散，美股也不会好看。所以我看空美股。一个月以后来看看自己分析的对不对。 </body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TVIX\">$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$</a> 美股过去十年的涨幅很大部分是由公司回购所驱动（lending cost低、高管奖金与股价挂钩），所以二月份的最高点其实是有很多泡沫存在的。反观今天的美股，已从三月最低点反弹25%，我认为向上空间已经所剩无几：1是在疫情接受fed帮助的公司是不可以回购股票的，那公司的股价只能由它真实的经营状况和利润所驱动，而经过疫情的影响，q1q2的财报必定不会好看，现在的价格我认为是虚高的... 2是市场对美国重启经济报很大的希望，可是看看中国现状就知道（中小企业大批量倒闭，招租的铺子满大街都是），就算重启经济，它的恢复速度也是非常缓慢的，当市场意识到这点的时候，乐观情绪退散，美股也不会好看。所以我看空美股。一个月以后来看看自己分析的对不对。 </body></html>","text":"$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$ 美股过去十年的涨幅很大部分是由公司回购所驱动（lending cost低、高管奖金与股价挂钩），所以二月份的最高点其实是有很多泡沫存在的。反观今天的美股，已从三月最低点反弹25%，我认为向上空间已经所剩无几：1是在疫情接受fed帮助的公司是不可以回购股票的，那公司的股价只能由它真实的经营状况和利润所驱动，而经过疫情的影响，q1q2的财报必定不会好看，现在的价格我认为是虚高的... 2是市场对美国重启经济报很大的希望，可是看看中国现状就知道（中小企业大批量倒闭，招租的铺子满大街都是），就算重启经济，它的恢复速度也是非常缓慢的，当市场意识到这点的时候，乐观情绪退散，美股也不会好看。所以我看空美股。一个月以后来看看自己分析的对不对。","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/928511541","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7714,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["TVIX"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":620,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":2335784,"commentId":"2335784","gmtCreate":1586863377033,"gmtModify":1586863377033,"authorId":3505111610776941,"author":{"id":3505111610776941,"idStr":"3505111610776941","authorId":3505111610776941,"name":"5fire","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df011459ffd1ce614fdb2f3a6fc31e31","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":928511541,"objectIdStr":"928511541","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"接上一条，仅凭财报和疫情恶化，也只是看多热情被现实抹杀，震荡或者缓慢下行，波动率的快速拉升机会不大反而会继续下跌，但是赌事件并不是一个盈利的好途径，我更愿意赌长期行情。换句话说，我看空，但我不敢买！","text":"接上一条，仅凭财报和疫情恶化，也只是看多热情被现实抹杀，震荡或者缓慢下行，波动率的快速拉升机会不大反而会继续下跌，但是赌事件并不是一个盈利的好途径，我更愿意赌长期行情。换句话说，我看空，但我不敢买！","html":"接上一条，仅凭财报和疫情恶化，也只是看多热情被现实抹杀，震荡或者缓慢下行，波动率的快速拉升机会不大反而会继续下跌，但是赌事件并不是一个盈利的好途径，我更愿意赌长期行情。换句话说，我看空，但我不敢买！","likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"subComments":[{"id":2338713,"commentId":"2338713","gmtCreate":1586916640244,"gmtModify":1586916640244,"authorId":3505111610776941,"author":{"id":3505111610776941,"idStr":"3505111610776941","authorId":3505111610776941,"name":"5fire","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df011459ffd1ce614fdb2f3a6fc31e31","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3545810862852481,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3545810862852481,"idStr":"3545810862852481","authorId":3545810862852481,"name":"小十一eleven","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf865cc60b80061dc8f74f2cd4091cac","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":928511541,"objectIdStr":"928511541","type":1,"supId":2335784,"supIdStr":"2335784","prevId":2335813,"prevIdStr":"2335813","content":"tvix我觉得未来几年都不会好做了 不是不会涨 是更难抓住了 毕竟上一个十年的高潮已经落幕了 乱世和百废待兴的阶段 tvix都没啥意思 ","text":"tvix我觉得未来几年都不会好做了 不是不会涨 是更难抓住了 毕竟上一个十年的高潮已经落幕了 乱世和百废待兴的阶段 tvix都没啥意思 ","html":"tvix我觉得未来几年都不会好做了 不是不会涨 是更难抓住了 毕竟上一个十年的高潮已经落幕了 乱世和百废待兴的阶段 tvix都没啥意思 "},{"id":2335813,"commentId":"2335813","gmtCreate":1586863554209,"gmtModify":1586863554209,"authorId":3545810862852481,"author":{"id":3545810862852481,"idStr":"3545810862852481","authorId":3545810862852481,"name":"小十一eleven","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf865cc60b80061dc8f74f2cd4091cac","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":928511541,"objectIdStr":"928511541","type":1,"supId":2335784,"supIdStr":"2335784","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"我觉得你说很有道理诶，我没考虑到阴跌的情况，VIX在这种情况也不会冲高...我也是看空，想捞一笔[捂脸]","text":"我觉得你说很有道理诶，我没考虑到阴跌的情况，VIX在这种情况也不会冲高...我也是看空，想捞一笔[捂脸]","html":"我觉得你说很有道理诶，我没考虑到阴跌的情况，VIX在这种情况也不会冲高...我也是看空，想捞一笔[捂脸]"}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":2334584,"commentId":"2334584","gmtCreate":1586831126126,"gmtModify":1586831126126,"authorId":3437864438698016,"author":{"id":3437864438698016,"idStr":"3437864438698016","authorId":3437864438698016,"name":"小do","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a877921e5ed88700305c37737450d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":928511541,"objectIdStr":"928511541","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"你是个妹子？","text":"你是个妹子？","html":"你是个妹子？","likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"subComments":[{"id":2334674,"commentId":"2334674","gmtCreate":1586833690746,"gmtModify":1586833690746,"authorId":3545810862852481,"author":{"id":3545810862852481,"idStr":"3545810862852481","authorId":3545810862852481,"name":"小十一eleven","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf865cc60b80061dc8f74f2cd4091cac","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":928511541,"objectIdStr":"928511541","type":1,"supId":2334584,"supIdStr":"2334584","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"额哈哈 对啊","text":"额哈哈 对啊","html":"额哈哈 对啊"}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":2335780,"commentId":"2335780","gmtCreate":1586863362487,"gmtModify":1586863362487,"authorId":3505111610776941,"author":{"id":3505111610776941,"idStr":"3505111610776941","authorId":3505111610776941,"name":"5fire","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df011459ffd1ce614fdb2f3a6fc31e31","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":928511541,"objectIdStr":"928511541","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"我个人认为，看待美股首先有个基本共识，长期恒定看涨。基于这个基础在再去考虑是否有做空机会，也就是说虚高本身是美股自然属性的一部分。然后再看现在市场是不是过分乐观，我个人觉得必须有事件推动，而且是美联储不能充分发现和解决的（比如金融机构破产是不被美联储允许的）","text":"我个人认为，看待美股首先有个基本共识，长期恒定看涨。基于这个基础在再去考虑是否有做空机会，也就是说虚高本身是美股自然属性的一部分。然后再看现在市场是不是过分乐观，我个人觉得必须有事件推动，而且是美联储不能充分发现和解决的（比如金融机构破产是不被美联储允许的）","html":"我个人认为，看待美股首先有个基本共识，长期恒定看涨。基于这个基础在再去考虑是否有做空机会，也就是说虚高本身是美股自然属性的一部分。然后再看现在市场是不是过分乐观，我个人觉得必须有事件推动，而且是美联储不能充分发现和解决的（比如金融机构破产是不被美联储允许的）","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":2335793,"commentId":"2335793","gmtCreate":1586863421792,"gmtModify":1586863421792,"authorId":3463540029776739,"author":{"id":3463540029776739,"idStr":"3463540029776739","authorId":3463540029776739,"name":"Geinibei","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":928511541,"objectIdStr":"928511541","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"谨慎看空吧，看大摩的财报不及预期，股价没啥反应，市场觉得price in了。这就很难说了，第一季度有的财报还没体现呢。不知道资本多疯狂，接着拉也有可能。","text":"谨慎看空吧，看大摩的财报不及预期，股价没啥反应，市场觉得price in了。这就很难说了，第一季度有的财报还没体现呢。不知道资本多疯狂，接着拉也有可能。","html":"谨慎看空吧，看大摩的财报不及预期，股价没啥反应，市场觉得price in了。这就很难说了，第一季度有的财报还没体现呢。不知道资本多疯狂，接着拉也有可能。","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":2338114,"commentId":"2338114","gmtCreate":1586900067291,"gmtModify":1586900067291,"authorId":3487578825517945,"author":{"id":3487578825517945,"idStr":"3487578825517945","authorId":3487578825517945,"name":"shaun18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24bb619d72cac3bae36159f08355b4f8","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":928511541,"objectIdStr":"928511541","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"有一句话不知该不该说，那就是大多数人看好的东西，往往不会发生，或者即使发生，你也很难以此为策略赚钱捞一笔","text":"有一句话不知该不该说，那就是大多数人看好的东西，往往不会发生，或者即使发生，你也很难以此为策略赚钱捞一笔","html":"有一句话不知该不该说，那就是大多数人看好的东西，往往不会发生，或者即使发生，你也很难以此为策略赚钱捞一笔","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/928511541"}