$标普500(.IN_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2020-04-02

$标普500(.INX)$$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$$波音(BA)$$道琼斯(.DJI)$在美联储无限量之后一定还有至少一次的熔断，之后才有可能见底。我之前说过，当时美国疫情感染确诊8万人时，死亡人数只有1000左右，那是因为美国医疗系统发达，感染人数不足以造成全国医疗系统崩溃，属于承托力之内，所以美国民众和政要不会过分惊恐，我推测美国医疗系统承托力在15万之内，超过这个数值后，美国的死亡人数成倍数级增长，只有死亡人数高了才会造成恐慌，有些人说我盼着死人，其实这种人很幼稚，这不是盼着就能来的。美国对于本次新冠疫情太过轻视，对本国医疗系统和医疗水平又过于自信，当然他们也有资格自信，但过于自信就容易造成误判，比如死亡人数比率，因为之前一直控制在1%以下所以觉得稍微认真点会更低，从而低估了病毒传播速度，这次新冠应该比以往任何时期的流感传播力都更强，我估计今年美国死亡人数几乎可以确定在5位数，至于白宫所说10万人死亡数应该是政治考量后给出的，给自己个台阶下。所以我认为接下来的恐慌不再是感染人数而是死亡人数，首次破万或是极速升高的死亡数据是下一次大恐慌的引爆点。

欢迎讨论，杠精，儿童绕行

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

BareFace
2020-04-02
BareFace
目前美国病死率已达到2%估计在10天内应该还会翻倍，那个时候死亡人数应该会破万，美国经济目前在7月前是不可能全面复工的，这次金融危机很可能把道指打回4位数，以后也可以预计到美国会组织全球各国向中国索赔，当然大概率我们会私下免除美国一大笔国债。既然是霸权主义也是情理之中，毕竟暂时没有国家能跟美国抗衡，未来几年我国经济可能会再次进去内循环，希望我们能打败列强。希望老特也赶紧下台。
- BareFace回复后悔了:
  霸权主义不是在讲道理，会不会落井下石我们后面看看，我也一样不会，但是中国结交的基本都是穷国，联合国有席位但说话没分量。而夹在中美间谁也惹不起，也挺难的
- 后悔了:
  向中国索赔就不合理了，中国又不是源头，现在都指向美国，要索赔也是中国俄罗斯联合其他国家向美国索赔，而且这次疫情中国援助的国家也不少，不至于落井下石。
- 2倍杠杆做空瑞幸已爆仓回复BareFace:
  楼主分析有道理。只是现在投资医疗可能不是太好的时机，短期炒作过热了 [龇牙]
- BareFace回复福多:
  估计还是医疗，人只要活着就会生病，而且随着科技发展，会发现更多种疾病，待攻克的问题也会更多。
- 福多:
  说的在理，我在思考内生经济未来哪个行业会长期受益，慢慢潜伏。
猛逃
2020-04-02
猛逃
我喜欢真数据，几便是残酷的数据。因为面对真数据，人类会总结的，而假数据⋯
- 请叫我兄长回复BareFace:
  以后真越来越好吗？你哪里来的自信？
- BareFace:
  没错，无论个人还是团体想进步必须要先学会认错，这个认错不是像谁道歉而且认识到错误。我们国家这次疫情无论数据掺水多少，是否真实，首次对公众公布疫情都是值得肯定的，必定饭要一口一口吃嘛，而且想来效果非常好，所以以后国内应该会越来越透明越来越真实，这是走向一个真正的强国的必经之路，我们掩耳盗铃太多年了。
- 林深见鹿_4737:
  你开心就好
- 猛逃回复林深见鹿_4737:
  是装傻还是真傻？
- 林深见鹿_4737:
  又来了你告诉我假数据在哪
ShiroTan
2020-04-02
ShiroTan
确实在理可惜我明天上课不能蹲到今晚收盘了
- BareFace:
  祝你发大财
inOui
2020-04-02
inOui
那么是否也应该考虑一下疫苗研发的速度呢，万一四月底前已经有很大进展了呢
- troy并不难:
  我也希望疫苗能快点来，但作为医学领域的人，我负责的告诉你今年不可能会有疫苗出来。哎希望能早日控制疫情
- BareFace:
  目前从消息面来说7月前出疫苗也几乎不可能，那个时候美国疫情已经崩了，最了解疫苗速度的肯定是特朗普，他肯定提前几个月就说已经成功了，所以什么时候能出可以参照他讲话
inOui
2020-04-02
inOui
另外一方面，特朗普也应该不能让这种局面发生，如果道指跌倒四位数，他也不用玩了，直接下台吧
- BareFace:
  这次疫情他们也没见过，前期为了保股市保有钱人所以耽误了最佳防疫期，现在已经不要脸的无限QE了，如果还不能阻止第二波踩踏那么股指跌成啥样也不算太稀奇。最多再来个别的更不要脸的招数拉回来
很是看好
2020-04-02
很是看好
同理。半仓做空。

发表看法

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