就赚米国钱
2020-04-07
$蔚来(NIO)$
就这么说吧，2019年二季度分别交付1124+1089+1340=3553辆
2020年二季度交付大概率平均2000以上，那就是6000多辆，这个预期很过分吗？
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
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小新是个好人
2020-04-07
小新是个好人
只是积压订单的交付量而已，付出这么激动，3月财报公布的时候说了，积压了5000多订单，三月交付了1500台，还有3500台，四月份就当火力全开也就交付4000台，五月份应该也就2000台左右，客观看二季度总共8000台，三季度受消费回暖影响9000台，四季度盘升至1万台，全年交付3万台低于财报预期销量
小新是个好人
回复
饭特稀_2707
:
你从哪里拿到的新增订单数据？这个我拿不到，所以我只能等5000个积压订单消耗完了后进行间接测算。
饭特稀_2707
:
积压的订单交付出去，会收到新的订单。另外，新订单比交付的订单多，也就是积压订单还在变多。
小新是个好人
回复
就赚米国钱
:
我这是乐观估计，国内经济受疫情影响这么严重，高端消费品肯定被影响，谁不得留着点银子过冬啊，等积压的订单消耗完后，看新增交付量是多少，那时候才是实打实的2020真实购买意愿，到时候根据数据再重新调整全年销量预测。
就赚米国钱
:
即使按你的数据，已经很漂亮了...
接力投资
2020-04-07
接力投资
二季度至少一万量
接力投资
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操作要有逻辑
:
有计划
操作要有逻辑
:
你多买几辆支持一下
接力投资
回复
就赚米国钱
:
一万辆我觉得还是保守的
就赚米国钱
:
我比较保守...
Petexu
2020-04-07
Petexu
那你算的不太对，二季度应该是12000左右，但是一季度财报一定非常惨
就赚米国钱
:
疫情下一季度交付量跟去年差不多，已经很好了，而且成本会下降很多，加上合肥融资消息可能落定，已经没什么下降空间...
蔚来未来车主
2020-04-07
蔚来未来车主
八千到一万
蔚来未来车主
回复
就赚米国钱
:
李斌不会说没有把握的话，会打脸
就赚米国钱
:
那毛利率肯定转正了... 有点不敢想
就赚米国钱
2020-04-07
就赚米国钱
三月份这么苦难的情况下都能1500+的话，二季度自己想吧...
就赚米国钱
回复
青木森森
:
据说积压的订单还有很多，国内疫情还不了解吗？三月份大部分时间都没能完全复工，而且4月份开始新ES8也交付了，2000辆很保守的预期
青木森森
:
有二月积压订单的原因吧。二季度订单还有那么多吗
Wanningning
2020-04-07
Wanningning
Q2保守估计8000往上 ，要是6000的话，股价得大跌，一万以上毛利率或许能转正
小新是个好人
:
没那么悲观，蔚来19年四季度其实进行了严苛的降本手术，裁掉了很多人，这些减本效果在今年才能体现，去年裁员支付了大量赔偿金，所以四季度财务数据低于预期，加上在独立一些不赚钱的研发部门，今年单车制造成本应该下降20%左右，不增加niocwnter情况下，靠niospace维持去年单店销量我觉得就可以毛利转正。
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