$达美航空(DAL)_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2020-04-04

$达美航空(DAL)$$西南航空(LUV)$$联合大陆航空(UAL)$$美国航空(AAL)$巴菲特只卖了五分之一仓位达美以及小部分西南航空。他还持有四大航空大量的股票，难道他这么做就是止损的话，？下周股价肯定还会下探，这不是搬石头砸自己的脚吗？达美2019年营业成本在340亿左右，这在正常航运下。这里有百分之40的人力成本，还有百分之30的燃油成本。按照这个数据计算其他费用在3000万美金一天，如果目前达美无薪水休假措施一天5000万美金的消耗是差不多。一年也就180亿消耗。美国国会已经批准500亿的航空业救助，平均下来每家能分到100亿左右，加上达美80亿流动储备，支撑一年。我不相信美国疫情会持续一年。各位兄弟，现在抄底，更待何时？

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

冲他
2020-04-04
冲他
你满仓风险也太大了，巴菲特持仓这么大的量，出货肯定要分批，不然会引起股价剧烈震荡，会被SEC问询。另外，航空业大概率会被政府注资，那么你手上的股票就会被稀释，目前的情况，股价稀释到10美元是差不多的，市值仍可维持在120亿左右。也就是说，你要回到20的本，就要市值翻一倍，市值到240亿美元左右，即，恢复到航空业鼎盛时期。预估，需要未来3-5年。
- 股票小白2050:
  股价稀释到10美元有什么根据?也要看政府以多少钱美股注资吧
- Tony特别帅:
  所以最大的争议点就是恢复期
- Weisberg:
  航空业与需求有关，本次疫情与疫情强相关，与2008金融危机不一样。经济反弹会很快
- 不动如山:
  说的不错
A股巴菲特
2020-04-05
A股巴菲特
你别一厢情愿啊，机库费用机体停机也不能缺少维护费用，各种员工、顾客、供应商之间的官司。你看看国内航空就知道了疫情期间载人下降达90%+意味着只出不进那去年340亿的营业支出可能会变成340亿净亏损。所谓航空业救助不过是杯水车薪
- Weisberg回复如来脚掌:
  和我测算的5000万差不了多少，我相信你一个月后就不会是这样判断的
- 如来脚掌回复Weisberg:
  达美CEO说疫情期间营收下降90%，日支出却有6000万，看你信不信了
- Weisberg:
  你可以好好研究一下2019年财报数据，员工工资，已经燃油费用等
Weed
2020-04-05
Weed
再举个例子，加拿大有只股票home capital ,前几年暴跌到5块，突然涨了，原来是巴菲特入股11块，后来过了一年，巴菲特出手了，那时股价也10几块，出手后股价后来照样涨到30几
- Weisberg:
  2月20日左右那时候是中国疫情的高潮，现在有谁想到国内新增基本为0.我预计一个月后那些恐慌的投资者有开始追高
Weisberg
2020-04-04
Weisberg
航空业这次肯定会大洗牌，达美这几年经营很稳健，我不相信第一个被吃掉的就是达美。
- 降龙无悔回复老马狂粉:
  巴飞特这传递一个信号给政府，你不救我，我就狂砸
- 老马狂粉:
  虽然我也不信，但就怕它破产...但巴老这举动真让人看不懂。 [捂脸] [捂脸]
  疫情结束是迟早的事，我们这边状况稳定下来后就一堆人急着出门玩，我还真不相信大家能忍住不搭飞机好几年，难道要坐马车吗？ [喷血] [喷血]
strong1985
2020-04-04
strong1985
赞同是赞同，但还是怕，最担心达美航空破产清算，二级市场的小股东会血本无归的
- Weisberg:
  国会的500亿资金至少能熬好久，再说航空业设计到十几万人就业，美国政府不可能让他倒闭
gugu
2020-04-05
gugu
个人推测他需要降低持股比例。也许他手里拿了可转债，加一起超过一定比例了。如果是止损，抛30%以上才有实质意义，他明明知道自己一举一动市场关注度这么高，还降了一点比例。我会继续拿住2021年远期call $美国航空(AAL)$ $达美航空(DAL)$

发表看法

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