Signs of Market Consolidation - 4 Interesting Charts
By Thomas Poh 24 Mar 2020
www.pzhconsultants.com
五天前欧洲央行ECB宣布了EUR7500亿债券回顾计划。美联储Fed昨日也公布的无底线量化宽松计划。在各央行的紧急行动下，国际融资市场终于开始显示回返正常操作的迹象。
The funding markets seem to have found a temporary footing as central banks attempted to counter the outbreak with their own shock and awe bazookas. The ECB unveiled an EUR 750bio bond purchase 5 days ago while the Fed announced unlimited quantitative easing yesterday as their latest salvo. The US Congress is also debating an upsized USD2 trillion stimulus package.
市场可能进入巩固阶段 - there are signs of the market reaching a temporary consolidation phase.
在对抗病毒行动方面，虽然国际证实案件和死亡人数还在每天增加，今天却得到了好消息。中国政府将于本周三开始放松进出湖北省的限制.
On the medical front, although the confirmed cases reported globally continue to rise together with the death toll, we have good news out of China where there is an announcement in the relaxation of the travel restrictions imposed on Wuhan.
在这几项新因素的推动下，美国股票市场开始了强力的回弹 (股票期货在下笔时已上升5%)。虽然这不意味熊市已结束，但市场可能进入巩固阶段。
All these sparked a rally in equities led by US equities futures which is currently up 5% in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at the time of this report writing.While it is unlikely that the bear trend in equities will end, given that the economic impact of this outbreak potentially overshadow that of the Global Financial Crisis, there are signs of the market reaching a temporary consolidation phase.
我们来探讨以下4个图标来做深一层的分析：
Below are 4 charts that might be interesting.
The US Treasuries (UST) finally reversed their selloff and rallied over the last 2 days
1) 美国国债券（UST）最终扭转了下滑的趋势，并在过去2天上涨（国债价格与收益率成反比）。这意味美联储的量化宽松措施开始见效，扭转市场前两周大量抛售美国国债以套取现金的紧张现象。
The US Treasuries (UST) finally reversed their selloff and rallied over the last 2 days (treasuries prices have an inverse relationship with yields). This a sign that the Fed's QE measure is restoring some calm in the market which saw heavy selling of Treasuries to raise cash. As we recall in my previous report, UST temporarily of its traditional flight to quality correlationship with equities during last 2 weeks' violent asset selloff because everyone was just selling everything to raise funding.
股市已经失去了特朗普选举后的所有收益 - The stock market has lost ALL of the post-Trump election gains
2) 股市已经失去了特朗普选举后的所有收益。美国股票回返到在2016特朗普当选后的牛市突破点。在这里，那时的突破点又反过来形成了自然市场支持水平。更令人关注的是，如果我们把焦点集中到过去3天的市场动态。。。
The stock market has lost ALL of the post-Trump election gains. We are hovering at the point of breakout of the Trump rally which started in 2016 which in turn forms a natural support. More interestly, if we zoom into the chart over the last 2 days... ...
股市显示了十字星技术指标 ... 造新低的趋势已开始减弱 - Doji stick technical indicator sighted yesterday... a sign of market INDECISION
3) 昨天的股市显示了十字星技术指标。尽管这不一定预示着熊市的反转，但它确实表明市场在近期内，继续造新低的趋势已开始减弱。
Doji stick technical indicator sighted yesterday. This a sign of market INDECISION. Although this does not necessary signal a reversal, it does indicator that the market is struggling to make new lows in the recent selling trend.
标准普尔和VIX之间存在分歧 - Divergence between S&P and VIX
4) 标准普尔和VIX之间存在分歧。尽管最近几天股市持续下跌，股票波动率指数VIX（也被称为“恐惧指数”）开始回转。通常，随着股票抛售期间波动率的增加，VIX会攀升。这两者的分叉，表明市场出现了空头部位耗尽的迹象。
Divergence between S&P and VIX. The equities volatility index VIX also known as the "fear index" is reversing inspite of the continued selloff in equities over the last few days. Usually VIX climbs higher as volatility increases during equities selloffs. The fact that there is a divergence shows signs of market exhaustion for shorts.
空头者可考虑锁定一些利润 - Time to lock in some profits for short positions.
总的来说：股票的熊市趋势依然持续，但市场将很快进入巩固阶段。空头者可考虑锁定一些利润
Bottomline: The bear trend in equities is still intact but there is risk that the market will go through a consolidation phase soon. Time to lock in some profits for short positions.
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