华哥888
2021-11-15
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风险资产可能崩盘?高盛:要像1999年那样思考
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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n风险资产可能崩盘?高盛:要像1999年那样思考\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-15 18:44 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3644874><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今年以来,美股保持强势。此前高盛化身美股最大多头,上调标普500指数年度目标位至4700点。\n美股这种上涨势头会一直保持下去吗?高盛最新的报告警告称:\n\n要小心即将到来的融涨!\n\n另外,美联储最新半年度金融稳定报告也警告称:\n\n风险资产可能崩盘。\n\n如此说来,美股拐点将至?\n\n周一,高盛交易员马特·弗勒里(Matt Fleury)发表评论称:\n\n传统的投资规则正在被抛弃。\n\n弗勒里给投资者的建议是...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3644874\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e87285f5f61644eaba65898e6ccf2bf","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3644874","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2183178046","content_text":"今年以来,美股保持强势。此前高盛化身美股最大多头,上调标普500指数年度目标位至4700点。\n美股这种上涨势头会一直保持下去吗?高盛最新的报告警告称:\n\n要小心即将到来的融涨!\n\n另外,美联储最新半年度金融稳定报告也警告称:\n\n风险资产可能崩盘。\n\n如此说来,美股拐点将至?\n\n周一,高盛交易员马特·弗勒里(Matt Fleury)发表评论称:\n\n传统的投资规则正在被抛弃。\n\n弗勒里给投资者的建议是:\n\n开始像1999年那样思考吧,这是一个没有规则的市场。\n\n他举例称,英伟达一天内大涨12%,市值飙升至1万亿美元;特斯拉在几周内剧增3500亿美元的市值;3B家居(BBBY)上演轧空行情盘后暴涨65%……\n在弗勒里看来,当股市走高时,本质上投资者已经超买。\n他还用了一些图表来交代背景信息,以下是他的主要观察结果:\n上周五,SPX(标普500指数)看涨期权名义交易量创下历史新高。\n\n交易的总看涨期权与总看跌期权:\n\n高盛称,近期的走势让人想起2017年底、2018年初,是极不稳定的。\n\n\n此外值得一提的是,金融和非必需消费品创下历史新高。\n\n高盛在评论市场疯狂时写道:\n\n 像这样持续的股市暴力,它可能会持续很长时间,可以说2013-2019年可能一直是异常值,我们正在回到90年代后期类型的交易环境。\n\n\n高盛预计,2022年GDP增长和通胀都会放缓。下图显示了GDP的同比变化与通胀的同比变化:\n\n正如高盛警告的那样:\n\n 当它开始向下和向左移动时,就该谨慎了。那将是2022年第二季度左右。\n\n高盛还强调了“非常高”的个人可支配收入。\n\n在所有关键观察结果中,高盛指出了期权的看涨偏斜,并指出:\n\n 股票波动格局中发生了一些疯狂的事件。随着科技股的剧烈波动加速,QQQ偏斜也在趋于平缓,这是1999年价格波动的微弱暗示。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1307,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/873779073"}
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