风险资产可能崩盘？高盛：要像1999年那样思考

华尔街见闻2021-11-15

今年以来，美股保持强势。此前高盛化身美股最大多头，上调标普500指数年度目标位至4700点。美股这种上涨势头会一直保持下去吗？高盛最新的报告警告称：要小心即将到来的融涨！另外，美联储最新半年度金融稳定报告也警告称：风险资产可能崩盘。如此说来，美股拐点将至？周一，高盛交易员马特·弗勒里（Matt Fleury）发表评论称：传统的投资规则正在被抛弃。弗勒里给投资者的建议是...

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精彩评论

Sam Ang
2021-11-16
Sam Ang
阅
浴缸潜水员
2021-11-16
浴缸潜水员
虽说小心驶得万年船，但狼来了也是成本巨大的行为。$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$$道琼斯(.DJI)$$Facebook(FB)$
壳里乾坤大
2021-11-15
壳里乾坤大
乱七八糟的，图不知道是啥？老虎是不是要退市呀
不姓王但叫富贵
2021-11-15
不姓王但叫富贵
每次说跌都在涨，我都怀疑这游戏的规则是否还管用
Laria
2021-11-15
Laria
所以结论是啥？
华哥888
2021-11-15
华哥888
说人话

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Goldman Sachs: Think like 1999","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc54840cd9cf877f2f7972e708c7b2a","symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9},"content_text":"今年以来，美股保持强势。此前高盛化身美股最大多头，上调标普500指数年度目标位至4700点。\n美股这种上涨势头会一直保持下去吗？高盛最新的报告警告称：\n\n要小心即将到来的融涨！\n\n另外，美联储最新半年度金融稳定报告也警告称：\n\n风险资产可能崩盘。\n\n如此说来，美股拐点将至？\n\n周一，高盛交易员马特·弗勒里（Matt Fleury）发表评论称：\n\n传统的投资规则正在被抛弃。\n\n弗勒里给投资者的建议是：\n\n开始像1999年那样思考吧，这是一个没有规则的市场。\n\n他举例称，英伟达一天内大涨12%，市值飙升至1万亿美元；特斯拉在几周内剧增3500亿美元的市值；3B家居（BBBY）上演轧空行情盘后暴涨65%……\n在弗勒里看来，当股市走高时，本质上投资者已经超买。\n他还用了一些图表来交代背景信息，以下是他的主要观察结果：\n上周五，SPX（标普500指数）看涨期权名义交易量创下历史新高。\n\n交易的总看涨期权与总看跌期权：\n\n高盛称，近期的走势让人想起2017年底、2018年初，是极不稳定的。\n\n\n此外值得一提的是，金融和非必需消费品创下历史新高。\n\n高盛在评论市场疯狂时写道：\n\n 像这样持续的股市暴力，它可能会持续很长时间，可以说2013-2019年可能一直是异常值，我们正在回到90年代后期类型的交易环境。\n\n\n高盛预计，2022年GDP增长和通胀都会放缓。下图显示了GDP的同比变化与通胀的同比变化：\n\n正如高盛警告的那样：\n\n 当它开始向下和向左移动时，就该谨慎了。那将是2022年第二季度左右。\n\n高盛还强调了“非常高”的个人可支配收入。\n\n在所有关键观察结果中，高盛指出了期权的看涨偏斜，并指出：\n\n 股票波动格局中发生了一些疯狂的事件。随着科技股的剧烈波动加速，QQQ偏斜也在趋于平缓，这是1999年价格波动的微弱暗示。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":871132631,"gmtCreate":1637034661742,"gmtModify":1637034661742,"author":{"id":"4095237511427410","authorId":"4095237511427410","name":"Sam Ang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c271bc9419615caa3287a977e2951be","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4095237511427410","authorIdStr":"4095237511427410"},"htmlText":"阅","listText":"阅","text":"阅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871132631","repostId":2183178046,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":871389191,"gmtCreate":1637026286010,"gmtModify":1637026286010,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"htmlText":"虽说小心驶得万年船，但狼来了也是成本巨大的行为。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">$Facebook(FB)$</a>","listText":"虽说小心驶得万年船，但狼来了也是成本巨大的行为。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">$Facebook(FB)$</a>","text":"虽说小心驶得万年船，但狼来了也是成本巨大的行为。$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$$道琼斯(.DJI)$$Facebook(FB)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871389191","repostId":2183178046,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":873776187,"gmtCreate":1636990036449,"gmtModify":1636990036449,"author":{"id":"3476835118252047","authorId":"3476835118252047","name":"壳里乾坤大","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4975c5cd512c52034be5035af43f4d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3476835118252047","authorIdStr":"3476835118252047"},"htmlText":"乱七八糟的，图不知道是啥？老虎是不是要退市呀","listText":"乱七八糟的，图不知道是啥？老虎是不是要退市呀","text":"乱七八糟的，图不知道是啥？老虎是不是要退市呀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873776187","repostId":2183178046,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":873771514,"gmtCreate":1636989895670,"gmtModify":1636989895670,"author":{"id":"3567774812244619","authorId":"3567774812244619","name":"不姓王但叫富贵","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567774812244619","authorIdStr":"3567774812244619"},"htmlText":"每次说跌都在涨，我都怀疑这游戏的规则是否还管用","listText":"每次说跌都在涨，我都怀疑这游戏的规则是否还管用","text":"每次说跌都在涨，我都怀疑这游戏的规则是否还管用","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873771514","repostId":2183178046,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":873773788,"gmtCreate":1636989845469,"gmtModify":1636989845469,"author":{"id":"3562583976125226","authorId":"3562583976125226","name":"Laria","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192b8a160aa44765ce07343f60ea3afb","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3562583976125226","authorIdStr":"3562583976125226"},"htmlText":"所以结论是啥？","listText":"所以结论是啥？","text":"所以结论是啥？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873773788","repostId":2183178046,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":873779073,"gmtCreate":1636989751051,"gmtModify":1636989751051,"author":{"id":"3562578375405729","authorId":"3562578375405729","name":"华哥888","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3562578375405729","authorIdStr":"3562578375405729"},"htmlText":"说人话","listText":"说人话","text":"说人话","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873779073","repostId":2183178046,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":56,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":16,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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