canoboi
2021-10-14
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Palantir: Strong Upside Ahead<blockquote>Palantir：未来强劲上涨</blockquote>
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This is driven by its software that is quite unique and should lead to strong customer demand over the coming years, as the need to interpret and analyzed big datasets is only expected to rise in the future.</p><p><blockquote>几个月前我报道了Palantir，我看好其股票，因为我认为该公司处于有利地位，可以在中长期内强劲增长。这是由其非常独特的软件推动的，应该会在未来几年带来强劲的客户需求，因为对解释和分析大数据集的需求预计只会在未来增加。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, there is also a lot of hype about this company and investors should be aware that Palantir is still a small company and its business is in a very early growth phase, thus I don’t see Palantir becoming one of the big tech companies over the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，关于这家公司也有很多炒作，投资者应该意识到Palantir仍然是一家小公司，其业务正处于非常早期的增长阶段，因此我不认为Palantir会成为大型科技公司之一未来十年。</blockquote></p><p> This expectation is justified by Palantir’s business model, which is focused on government and large corporate and therefore is not easily scalable. Indeed, the company only had 169 customers at the end of June, a relatively small number of customers due to its historical focus on large clients.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的商业模式证明了这一期望是合理的，该模式专注于政府和大型企业，因此不容易扩展。事实上，截至6月底，该公司只有169名客户，由于其历史上专注于大客户，客户数量相对较少。</blockquote></p><p> As I’ve discussed in previous articles, I invest mainly in secular growth companies in a few investing themes, namely semiconductors, electric vehicles, digital payments, 5G and big data. In this last theme, I see Palantir as one of the best picks, and in this article, I do an update on its investment case.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前的文章中所讨论的，我主要投资于几个投资主题中的长期成长型公司，即半导体、电动汽车、数字支付、5G和大数据。在最后一个主题中，我认为Palantir是最佳选择之一，在本文中，我更新了其投资案例。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Earnings & Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近的盈利和预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Since my last article, Palantir has released Q2 2021 earnings, maintain a very good operating momentum. Its revenues in the quarter amounted to $376 million, up by 49% YoY. This strong growth was driven largely by its U.S. commercial business that reported exponential growth, up by 90% YoY.</p><p><blockquote>自从我的上一篇文章以来，Palantir发布了2021年第二季度收益，保持了非常好的运营势头。该季度营收达3.76亿美元，同比增长49%。这一强劲增长主要是由其美国商业业务推动的，该业务呈指数级增长，同比增长90%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8ee3d7d0ef8a5d56f850d7e219ca013\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This growth rate in Palantir’s commercial business is impressive, but not necessarily unexpected. While Palantir has focused historically on governments and large corporations as its key customers, the company has been changing its strategy and has recruited, in recent months, salespeople to target smaller and medium-sized companies.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir商业业务的这一增长率令人印象深刻，但不一定出乎意料。虽然Palantir历来将政府和大公司作为其主要客户，但该公司一直在改变其战略，并在最近几个月招募了销售人员，以中小型公司为目标。</blockquote></p><p> In Q1 2021, Palantir had recruited about 50 dedicated salespeople and this has translated quite rapidly in new customer acquisitions and higher revenue in a relatively short period of time. In Q2, the company added 20 net new customers and total commercial customers increased by 32% QoQ, while in the first six months of the year its commercial customer count increased by 61%. I think this is a strong signal that Palantir offers a good value proposition to customers of different sizes, boding quite well for its growth in the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，Palantir招募了约50名专职销售人员，这在相对较短的时间内迅速转化为新客户获取和更高的收入。第二季度，该公司净新增客户20家，商业客户总数环比增长32%，而今年前六个月，其商业客户数量增长了61%。我认为这是一个强烈的信号，表明Palantir为不同规模的客户提供了良好的价值主张，预示着其未来几年的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Palantir’s edge is to offer a software that is used to analyze big datasets, so that users can make better decisions regarding their needs and projects. Palantir’s software is viewed as a central operating system for customer’s data, which usually can be spread across a large number of teams and departments and possibly in different countries.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Palantir的优势在于提供用于分析大数据集的软件，以便用户可以就其需求和项目做出更好的决策。Palantir的软件被视为客户数据的中央操作系统，这些数据通常可以分布在大量团队和部门，并且可能分布在不同的国家。</blockquote></p><p> The strong growth reported in the last quarter on the commercial business side is clearly a demonstration that Palantir can leverage its software to a much larger customer base, making me even more bullish as the company can gain a lot of customers both in the U.S. and abroad for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>上个季度商业业务方面的强劲增长清楚地表明Palantir可以利用其软件覆盖更大的客户群，这让我更加乐观，因为该公司可以在美国和国外赢得大量客户未来几年。</blockquote></p><p> This is supported by Palantir’s push to hire more salespeople, with the company hiring 60 additional salespeople in Q2, and more expected until the end of the year. This means that revenue growth in the commercial business is not expected to slow down in the next few quarters, boding very well for overall revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir推动雇用更多销售人员支持了这一点，该公司在第二季度额外雇用了60名销售人员，预计到今年年底还会有更多销售人员。这意味着未来几个季度商业业务的收入增长预计不会放缓，这对整体收入增长非常有利。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the government side, Palantir’s revenues increased by 66% YoY in Q2 2021 to $232 million, also a very strong growth rate, and this growth is expected to remain at a strong pace in the near future. For instance, Palantir has recentlybeen selectedby the U.S. Army for the delivery of the Army’s Intelligence data fabric and analytics foundation in a new contract valued at $823 million, for a period of four years, being a good tailwind for revenue growth in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>在政府方面，Palantir在2021年第二季度的收入同比增长了66%，达到2.32亿美元，这也是一个非常强劲的增长率，预计这种增长在不久的将来将保持强劲的速度。例如，Palantir最近被美国选中。陆军将在一份价值8.23亿美元的新合同中交付陆军情报数据结构和分析基础，为期四年，这将成为未来几年收入增长的良好推动力。</blockquote></p><p> Its total commercial revenue increased by 28% YoY to $144 million in Q2 2021, which means that the majority of commercial revenues are generated in international markets and therefore the potential for revenue growth in the U.S. is still largely untapped.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第二季度，其商业总收入同比增长28%至1.44亿美元，这意味着大部分商业收入来自国际市场，因此美国的收入增长潜力在很大程度上仍未开发。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond revenue growth, Palantir is also improving meaningfully its profitability and has achieved an adjusted operating margin (which excludes stock-based compensation) of 31% in the last quarter, much higher than in Q2 2020. Even though Palantir is not expected to report profits in the short term, from an operating standpoint, it is improving its margins due to a larger scale, showing that its business has operating leverage. As the company gains more customers and increases revenue at a higher rate than expenses, operating margins should continue to rise being a key factor for achieving break-even in the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>除了收入增长之外，Palantir的盈利能力也显着提高，上季度调整后营业利润率（不包括股票薪酬）达到31%，远高于2020年第二季度。尽管Palantir预计不会在短期内报告利润，但从运营角度来看，由于规模更大，其利润率正在提高，这表明其业务具有运营杠杆。随着公司获得更多客户并以高于支出的速度增加收入，营业利润率应该会继续上升，成为未来几年实现盈亏平衡的关键因素。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7214b3ada30c61fad0ea54b4ca066bb2\" tg-width=\"444\" tg-height=\"453\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> During the first six months of 2021, Palantir’s revenues were up by 49% YoY to $717 million, thus Palantir is on path to generate annual revenues of around $1.4-$1.5 billion in 2021. Current consensus is for $1.51 billion in revenues this year, which seems possible to beat as the company has reported higher growth than was expected in the two previous quarters.</p><p><blockquote>2021年前六个月，Palantir的收入同比增长49%，达到7.17亿美元，因此Palantir有望在2021年产生约1.4至15亿美元的年收入。目前的共识是今年的收入为15.1亿美元，这一数字似乎有可能被打破，因为该公司报告前两个季度的增长高于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding its cash flow generation, Palantir is also showing a good performance, given that it has raised its free cash flow guidance to about $300 million in 2021, while previously expecting some $150 million, benefiting from new customers and contracts that have upfront payments. This is supported by its ‘order backlog’, or what the company calls its remaining deal value, which amounted to more than $3.4 billion at the end of June.</p><p><blockquote>在现金流生成方面，Palantir也表现出良好的表现，因为它已将2021年的自由现金流指引提高至约3亿美元，而此前预计约为1.5亿美元，受益于新客户和预付款合同。这得到了其“订单积压”的支持，即该公司对其剩余交易价值的评级，截至6月底，该交易价值超过34亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf2e97080f2de2d05a69d9ac075b6994\" tg-width=\"318\" tg-height=\"262\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Going forward, Palantir is expected to maintain strong revenue growth, even though it is estimated to drop below +30% YoY in the next couple of years. This may be too conservative, given that Palantir is not showing any signs of slowing down in both the government and commercial businesses, which gives the company a good margin to beat medium-term expectations.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，Palantir预计将保持强劲的收入增长，尽管预计未来几年同比将降至+30%以下。这可能过于保守，因为Palantir在政府和商业业务方面都没有表现出任何放缓的迹象，这使得该公司有很好的利润来超出中期预期。</blockquote></p><p> This provides a strong backdrop for Palantir to achieve annual revenue growth of 30%+ during the next four years and reach its target of $4 billion in revenues by 2025. However, as the company becomes larger I’m expecting lower revenue growth than Palantir’s goal, forecasting annual revenue growth of 20%-25% by 2024 and 2025. Being conservative, this leads to around $3.8 billion in revenue by 2025, slightly lower than the company’s $4 billion goal.</p><p><blockquote>这为Palantir在未来四年内实现30%以上的年收入增长并到2025年实现40亿美元收入的目标提供了强大的背景。然而，随着公司规模的扩大，我预计收入增长将低于Palantir的目标，预计到2024年和2025年，年收入增长将达到20%-25%。保守地说，到2025年，这将导致收入约为38亿美元，略低于公司40亿美元的目标。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8399716c34af6fc6abd62e9cf7cb59ed\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"288\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg and author’s calculations.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博和作者的计算。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> As I’ve explained in previous articles, my valuation approach is to look into the next few years of revenues and earnings rather than just focus on this year or the next, to see if the stock has upside potential over a time frame of 2-4 years. Therefore, I’ll use 2025 estimates to see if Palantir is currently undervalued or not, and use its historical valuation based on its revenue multiple as the company is still not profitable in its bottom-line.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前的文章中解释的那样，我的估值方法是关注未来几年的收入和盈利，而不仅仅是关注今年或明年，看看该股票在2-4年的时间范围内是否有上涨潜力。因此，我将使用2025年的估计来了解Palantir目前是否被低估，并根据其收入倍数使用其历史估值，因为该公司的底线仍未盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s trading history is limited, as the company performed its IPO in 2020, but has traded at about 24x EV/revenues over the past year. Assuming that Palantir will have a slightly lower valuation multiple in the future, as its growth rates decrease in the coming years, I think it is reasonable to assume a 20x EV/revenue multiple by 2024. Note that this is a strong de-rate from its current valuation of close to 30x revenues, hence this seems to be a conservative assumption.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的交易历史有限，因为该公司于2020年进行了IPO，但过去一年的交易价格约为EV/收入的24倍。假设Palantir未来的估值倍数会略低，随着其增长率在未来几年下降，我认为假设到2024年EV/收入倍数为20倍是合理的。请注意，这比其目前接近30倍收入的估值大幅下降，因此这似乎是一个保守的假设。</blockquote></p><p> This methodology gives me a price target of $40.75 by end-2024, implying an upside potential of more than 70% over the next three years. This shows that Palantir has strong upside potential over the next three years and is currently a great play for long-term investors.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法给我的目标价到2024年底为40.75美元，这意味着未来三年的上涨潜力超过70%。这表明Palantir在未来三年具有强大的上涨潜力，目前是长期投资者的绝佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir has very good long-term growth prospects and its recent impressive growth in the U.S. commercial business provides evidence that Palantir is only starting to tap a very large market for the company. I was already bullish on Palantir, but its push for growth in the commercial business was ahead of my expectations, showing that its strategy is right and has a lot of potential to increase its customer base.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir拥有非常好的长期增长前景，其最近在美国商业业务中令人印象深刻的增长证明Palantir才刚刚开始为该公司挖掘一个非常大的市场。我已经看好Palantir，但它对商业业务增长的推动超出了我的预期，这表明它的战略是正确的，并且有很大的潜力来增加客户群。</blockquote></p><p> This provides a strong support for annual revenue growth of 20%-30% in the next four years, and being conservative I see plenty of upside in the next few years, making Palantir a great growth play in the big data investment theme.</p><p><blockquote>这为未来四年20%-30%的年收入增长提供了强有力的支持，保守地说，我认为未来几年有很大的上涨空间，使Palantir成为大数据投资主题中的一个巨大增长领域。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Strong Upside Ahead<blockquote>Palantir：未来强劲上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Strong Upside Ahead<blockquote>Palantir：未来强劲上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-14 16:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Palantir's growth strategy in the commercial business is bearing fruit, showing that there is a lot of potential to increase its customer base.</li> <li>This is a strong support for annual revenue growth of 20-30% in the next four years, justifying its high valuation multiples.</li> <li>My price target is $40.75 per share by end-2024, implying more than 70% upside potential over the next three years.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02d7c2e5739d48a7457788f40f66148c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir在商业业务方面的增长战略正在取得成果，表明其客户群的增加潜力很大。</li><li>这是未来四年20-30%年收入增长的有力支撑，证明了其高估值倍数的合理性。</li><li>我的目标价是到2024年底每股40.75美元，这意味着未来三年有超过70%的上涨潜力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir Technologies</b>(PLTR) is a great growth play with plenty of upside over the next three years, even assuming more conservative assumptions than its own guidance.</p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir技术</b>（PLTR）是一个巨大的增长型公司，即使假设比其自己的指导更保守的假设，未来三年也有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景</b></blockquote></p><p> I covered Palantir a few months ago, and I’m bullish on its stock as I see the company very well positioned to grow strongly over the medium to long term. This is driven by its software that is quite unique and should lead to strong customer demand over the coming years, as the need to interpret and analyzed big datasets is only expected to rise in the future.</p><p><blockquote>几个月前我报道了Palantir，我看好其股票，因为我认为该公司处于有利地位，可以在中长期内强劲增长。这是由其非常独特的软件推动的，应该会在未来几年带来强劲的客户需求，因为对解释和分析大数据集的需求预计只会在未来增加。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, there is also a lot of hype about this company and investors should be aware that Palantir is still a small company and its business is in a very early growth phase, thus I don’t see Palantir becoming one of the big tech companies over the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，关于这家公司也有很多炒作，投资者应该意识到Palantir仍然是一家小公司，其业务正处于非常早期的增长阶段，因此我不认为Palantir会成为大型科技公司之一未来十年。</blockquote></p><p> This expectation is justified by Palantir’s business model, which is focused on government and large corporate and therefore is not easily scalable. Indeed, the company only had 169 customers at the end of June, a relatively small number of customers due to its historical focus on large clients.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的商业模式证明了这一期望是合理的，该模式专注于政府和大型企业，因此不容易扩展。事实上，截至6月底，该公司只有169名客户，由于其历史上专注于大客户，客户数量相对较少。</blockquote></p><p> As I’ve discussed in previous articles, I invest mainly in secular growth companies in a few investing themes, namely semiconductors, electric vehicles, digital payments, 5G and big data. In this last theme, I see Palantir as one of the best picks, and in this article, I do an update on its investment case.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前的文章中所讨论的，我主要投资于几个投资主题中的长期成长型公司，即半导体、电动汽车、数字支付、5G和大数据。在最后一个主题中，我认为Palantir是最佳选择之一，在本文中，我更新了其投资案例。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Earnings & Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近的盈利和预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Since my last article, Palantir has released Q2 2021 earnings, maintain a very good operating momentum. Its revenues in the quarter amounted to $376 million, up by 49% YoY. This strong growth was driven largely by its U.S. commercial business that reported exponential growth, up by 90% YoY.</p><p><blockquote>自从我的上一篇文章以来，Palantir发布了2021年第二季度收益，保持了非常好的运营势头。该季度营收达3.76亿美元，同比增长49%。这一强劲增长主要是由其美国商业业务推动的，该业务呈指数级增长，同比增长90%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8ee3d7d0ef8a5d56f850d7e219ca013\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This growth rate in Palantir’s commercial business is impressive, but not necessarily unexpected. While Palantir has focused historically on governments and large corporations as its key customers, the company has been changing its strategy and has recruited, in recent months, salespeople to target smaller and medium-sized companies.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir商业业务的这一增长率令人印象深刻，但不一定出乎意料。虽然Palantir历来将政府和大公司作为其主要客户，但该公司一直在改变其战略，并在最近几个月招募了销售人员，以中小型公司为目标。</blockquote></p><p> In Q1 2021, Palantir had recruited about 50 dedicated salespeople and this has translated quite rapidly in new customer acquisitions and higher revenue in a relatively short period of time. In Q2, the company added 20 net new customers and total commercial customers increased by 32% QoQ, while in the first six months of the year its commercial customer count increased by 61%. I think this is a strong signal that Palantir offers a good value proposition to customers of different sizes, boding quite well for its growth in the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，Palantir招募了约50名专职销售人员，这在相对较短的时间内迅速转化为新客户获取和更高的收入。第二季度，该公司净新增客户20家，商业客户总数环比增长32%，而今年前六个月，其商业客户数量增长了61%。我认为这是一个强烈的信号，表明Palantir为不同规模的客户提供了良好的价值主张，预示着其未来几年的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Palantir’s edge is to offer a software that is used to analyze big datasets, so that users can make better decisions regarding their needs and projects. Palantir’s software is viewed as a central operating system for customer’s data, which usually can be spread across a large number of teams and departments and possibly in different countries.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Palantir的优势在于提供用于分析大数据集的软件，以便用户可以就其需求和项目做出更好的决策。Palantir的软件被视为客户数据的中央操作系统，这些数据通常可以分布在大量团队和部门，并且可能分布在不同的国家。</blockquote></p><p> The strong growth reported in the last quarter on the commercial business side is clearly a demonstration that Palantir can leverage its software to a much larger customer base, making me even more bullish as the company can gain a lot of customers both in the U.S. and abroad for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>上个季度商业业务方面的强劲增长清楚地表明Palantir可以利用其软件覆盖更大的客户群，这让我更加乐观，因为该公司可以在美国和国外赢得大量客户未来几年。</blockquote></p><p> This is supported by Palantir’s push to hire more salespeople, with the company hiring 60 additional salespeople in Q2, and more expected until the end of the year. This means that revenue growth in the commercial business is not expected to slow down in the next few quarters, boding very well for overall revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir推动雇用更多销售人员支持了这一点，该公司在第二季度额外雇用了60名销售人员，预计到今年年底还会有更多销售人员。这意味着未来几个季度商业业务的收入增长预计不会放缓，这对整体收入增长非常有利。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the government side, Palantir’s revenues increased by 66% YoY in Q2 2021 to $232 million, also a very strong growth rate, and this growth is expected to remain at a strong pace in the near future. For instance, Palantir has recentlybeen selectedby the U.S. Army for the delivery of the Army’s Intelligence data fabric and analytics foundation in a new contract valued at $823 million, for a period of four years, being a good tailwind for revenue growth in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>在政府方面，Palantir在2021年第二季度的收入同比增长了66%，达到2.32亿美元，这也是一个非常强劲的增长率，预计这种增长在不久的将来将保持强劲的速度。例如，Palantir最近被美国选中。陆军将在一份价值8.23亿美元的新合同中交付陆军情报数据结构和分析基础，为期四年，这将成为未来几年收入增长的良好推动力。</blockquote></p><p> Its total commercial revenue increased by 28% YoY to $144 million in Q2 2021, which means that the majority of commercial revenues are generated in international markets and therefore the potential for revenue growth in the U.S. is still largely untapped.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第二季度，其商业总收入同比增长28%至1.44亿美元，这意味着大部分商业收入来自国际市场，因此美国的收入增长潜力在很大程度上仍未开发。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond revenue growth, Palantir is also improving meaningfully its profitability and has achieved an adjusted operating margin (which excludes stock-based compensation) of 31% in the last quarter, much higher than in Q2 2020. Even though Palantir is not expected to report profits in the short term, from an operating standpoint, it is improving its margins due to a larger scale, showing that its business has operating leverage. As the company gains more customers and increases revenue at a higher rate than expenses, operating margins should continue to rise being a key factor for achieving break-even in the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>除了收入增长之外，Palantir的盈利能力也显着提高，上季度调整后营业利润率（不包括股票薪酬）达到31%，远高于2020年第二季度。尽管Palantir预计不会在短期内报告利润，但从运营角度来看，由于规模更大，其利润率正在提高，这表明其业务具有运营杠杆。随着公司获得更多客户并以高于支出的速度增加收入，营业利润率应该会继续上升，成为未来几年实现盈亏平衡的关键因素。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7214b3ada30c61fad0ea54b4ca066bb2\" tg-width=\"444\" tg-height=\"453\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> During the first six months of 2021, Palantir’s revenues were up by 49% YoY to $717 million, thus Palantir is on path to generate annual revenues of around $1.4-$1.5 billion in 2021. Current consensus is for $1.51 billion in revenues this year, which seems possible to beat as the company has reported higher growth than was expected in the two previous quarters.</p><p><blockquote>2021年前六个月，Palantir的收入同比增长49%，达到7.17亿美元，因此Palantir有望在2021年产生约1.4至15亿美元的年收入。目前的共识是今年的收入为15.1亿美元，这一数字似乎有可能被打破，因为该公司报告前两个季度的增长高于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding its cash flow generation, Palantir is also showing a good performance, given that it has raised its free cash flow guidance to about $300 million in 2021, while previously expecting some $150 million, benefiting from new customers and contracts that have upfront payments. This is supported by its ‘order backlog’, or what the company calls its remaining deal value, which amounted to more than $3.4 billion at the end of June.</p><p><blockquote>在现金流生成方面，Palantir也表现出良好的表现，因为它已将2021年的自由现金流指引提高至约3亿美元，而此前预计约为1.5亿美元，受益于新客户和预付款合同。这得到了其“订单积压”的支持，即该公司对其剩余交易价值的评级，截至6月底，该交易价值超过34亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf2e97080f2de2d05a69d9ac075b6994\" tg-width=\"318\" tg-height=\"262\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Going forward, Palantir is expected to maintain strong revenue growth, even though it is estimated to drop below +30% YoY in the next couple of years. This may be too conservative, given that Palantir is not showing any signs of slowing down in both the government and commercial businesses, which gives the company a good margin to beat medium-term expectations.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，Palantir预计将保持强劲的收入增长，尽管预计未来几年同比将降至+30%以下。这可能过于保守，因为Palantir在政府和商业业务方面都没有表现出任何放缓的迹象，这使得该公司有很好的利润来超出中期预期。</blockquote></p><p> This provides a strong backdrop for Palantir to achieve annual revenue growth of 30%+ during the next four years and reach its target of $4 billion in revenues by 2025. However, as the company becomes larger I’m expecting lower revenue growth than Palantir’s goal, forecasting annual revenue growth of 20%-25% by 2024 and 2025. Being conservative, this leads to around $3.8 billion in revenue by 2025, slightly lower than the company’s $4 billion goal.</p><p><blockquote>这为Palantir在未来四年内实现30%以上的年收入增长并到2025年实现40亿美元收入的目标提供了强大的背景。然而，随着公司规模的扩大，我预计收入增长将低于Palantir的目标，预计到2024年和2025年，年收入增长将达到20%-25%。保守地说，到2025年，这将导致收入约为38亿美元，略低于公司40亿美元的目标。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8399716c34af6fc6abd62e9cf7cb59ed\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"288\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg and author’s calculations.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博和作者的计算。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> As I’ve explained in previous articles, my valuation approach is to look into the next few years of revenues and earnings rather than just focus on this year or the next, to see if the stock has upside potential over a time frame of 2-4 years. Therefore, I’ll use 2025 estimates to see if Palantir is currently undervalued or not, and use its historical valuation based on its revenue multiple as the company is still not profitable in its bottom-line.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前的文章中解释的那样，我的估值方法是关注未来几年的收入和盈利，而不仅仅是关注今年或明年，看看该股票在2-4年的时间范围内是否有上涨潜力。因此，我将使用2025年的估计来了解Palantir目前是否被低估，并根据其收入倍数使用其历史估值，因为该公司的底线仍未盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s trading history is limited, as the company performed its IPO in 2020, but has traded at about 24x EV/revenues over the past year. Assuming that Palantir will have a slightly lower valuation multiple in the future, as its growth rates decrease in the coming years, I think it is reasonable to assume a 20x EV/revenue multiple by 2024. Note that this is a strong de-rate from its current valuation of close to 30x revenues, hence this seems to be a conservative assumption.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的交易历史有限，因为该公司于2020年进行了IPO，但过去一年的交易价格约为EV/收入的24倍。假设Palantir未来的估值倍数会略低，随着其增长率在未来几年下降，我认为假设到2024年EV/收入倍数为20倍是合理的。请注意，这比其目前接近30倍收入的估值大幅下降，因此这似乎是一个保守的假设。</blockquote></p><p> This methodology gives me a price target of $40.75 by end-2024, implying an upside potential of more than 70% over the next three years. This shows that Palantir has strong upside potential over the next three years and is currently a great play for long-term investors.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法给我的目标价到2024年底为40.75美元，这意味着未来三年的上涨潜力超过70%。这表明Palantir在未来三年具有强大的上涨潜力，目前是长期投资者的绝佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir has very good long-term growth prospects and its recent impressive growth in the U.S. commercial business provides evidence that Palantir is only starting to tap a very large market for the company. I was already bullish on Palantir, but its push for growth in the commercial business was ahead of my expectations, showing that its strategy is right and has a lot of potential to increase its customer base.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir拥有非常好的长期增长前景，其最近在美国商业业务中令人印象深刻的增长证明Palantir才刚刚开始为该公司挖掘一个非常大的市场。我已经看好Palantir，但它对商业业务增长的推动超出了我的预期，这表明它的战略是正确的，并且有很大的潜力来增加客户群。</blockquote></p><p> This provides a strong support for annual revenue growth of 20%-30% in the next four years, and being conservative I see plenty of upside in the next few years, making Palantir a great growth play in the big data investment theme.</p><p><blockquote>这为未来四年20%-30%的年收入增长提供了强有力的支持，保守地说，我认为未来几年有很大的上涨空间，使Palantir成为大数据投资主题中的一个巨大增长领域。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459749-palantir-strong-upside-ahead\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459749-palantir-strong-upside-ahead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131725095","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir's growth strategy in the commercial business is bearing fruit, showing that there is a lot of potential to increase its customer base.\nThis is a strong support for annual revenue growth of 20-30% in the next four years, justifying its high valuation multiples.\nMy price target is $40.75 per share by end-2024, implying more than 70% upside potential over the next three years.\n\nMichael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nPalantir Technologies(PLTR) is a great growth play with plenty of upside over the next three years, even assuming more conservative assumptions than its own guidance.\nBackground\nI covered Palantir a few months ago, and I’m bullish on its stock as I see the company very well positioned to grow strongly over the medium to long term. This is driven by its software that is quite unique and should lead to strong customer demand over the coming years, as the need to interpret and analyzed big datasets is only expected to rise in the future.\nNevertheless, there is also a lot of hype about this company and investors should be aware that Palantir is still a small company and its business is in a very early growth phase, thus I don’t see Palantir becoming one of the big tech companies over the next decade.\nThis expectation is justified by Palantir’s business model, which is focused on government and large corporate and therefore is not easily scalable. Indeed, the company only had 169 customers at the end of June, a relatively small number of customers due to its historical focus on large clients.\nAs I’ve discussed in previous articles, I invest mainly in secular growth companies in a few investing themes, namely semiconductors, electric vehicles, digital payments, 5G and big data. In this last theme, I see Palantir as one of the best picks, and in this article, I do an update on its investment case.\nRecent Earnings & Estimates\nSince my last article, Palantir has released Q2 2021 earnings, maintain a very good operating momentum. Its revenues in the quarter amounted to $376 million, up by 49% YoY. This strong growth was driven largely by its U.S. commercial business that reported exponential growth, up by 90% YoY.\nSource: Palantir.\nThis growth rate in Palantir’s commercial business is impressive, but not necessarily unexpected. While Palantir has focused historically on governments and large corporations as its key customers, the company has been changing its strategy and has recruited, in recent months, salespeople to target smaller and medium-sized companies.\nIn Q1 2021, Palantir had recruited about 50 dedicated salespeople and this has translated quite rapidly in new customer acquisitions and higher revenue in a relatively short period of time. In Q2, the company added 20 net new customers and total commercial customers increased by 32% QoQ, while in the first six months of the year its commercial customer count increased by 61%. I think this is a strong signal that Palantir offers a good value proposition to customers of different sizes, boding quite well for its growth in the next few years.\nIndeed, Palantir’s edge is to offer a software that is used to analyze big datasets, so that users can make better decisions regarding their needs and projects. Palantir’s software is viewed as a central operating system for customer’s data, which usually can be spread across a large number of teams and departments and possibly in different countries.\nThe strong growth reported in the last quarter on the commercial business side is clearly a demonstration that Palantir can leverage its software to a much larger customer base, making me even more bullish as the company can gain a lot of customers both in the U.S. and abroad for years to come.\nThis is supported by Palantir’s push to hire more salespeople, with the company hiring 60 additional salespeople in Q2, and more expected until the end of the year. This means that revenue growth in the commercial business is not expected to slow down in the next few quarters, boding very well for overall revenue growth.\nOn the government side, Palantir’s revenues increased by 66% YoY in Q2 2021 to $232 million, also a very strong growth rate, and this growth is expected to remain at a strong pace in the near future. For instance, Palantir has recentlybeen selectedby the U.S. Army for the delivery of the Army’s Intelligence data fabric and analytics foundation in a new contract valued at $823 million, for a period of four years, being a good tailwind for revenue growth in coming years.\nIts total commercial revenue increased by 28% YoY to $144 million in Q2 2021, which means that the majority of commercial revenues are generated in international markets and therefore the potential for revenue growth in the U.S. is still largely untapped.\nBeyond revenue growth, Palantir is also improving meaningfully its profitability and has achieved an adjusted operating margin (which excludes stock-based compensation) of 31% in the last quarter, much higher than in Q2 2020. Even though Palantir is not expected to report profits in the short term, from an operating standpoint, it is improving its margins due to a larger scale, showing that its business has operating leverage. As the company gains more customers and increases revenue at a higher rate than expenses, operating margins should continue to rise being a key factor for achieving break-even in the next few years.\nSource: Palantir.\nDuring the first six months of 2021, Palantir’s revenues were up by 49% YoY to $717 million, thus Palantir is on path to generate annual revenues of around $1.4-$1.5 billion in 2021. Current consensus is for $1.51 billion in revenues this year, which seems possible to beat as the company has reported higher growth than was expected in the two previous quarters.\nRegarding its cash flow generation, Palantir is also showing a good performance, given that it has raised its free cash flow guidance to about $300 million in 2021, while previously expecting some $150 million, benefiting from new customers and contracts that have upfront payments. This is supported by its ‘order backlog’, or what the company calls its remaining deal value, which amounted to more than $3.4 billion at the end of June.\nSource: Palantir.\nGoing forward, Palantir is expected to maintain strong revenue growth, even though it is estimated to drop below +30% YoY in the next couple of years. This may be too conservative, given that Palantir is not showing any signs of slowing down in both the government and commercial businesses, which gives the company a good margin to beat medium-term expectations.\nThis provides a strong backdrop for Palantir to achieve annual revenue growth of 30%+ during the next four years and reach its target of $4 billion in revenues by 2025. However, as the company becomes larger I’m expecting lower revenue growth than Palantir’s goal, forecasting annual revenue growth of 20%-25% by 2024 and 2025. Being conservative, this leads to around $3.8 billion in revenue by 2025, slightly lower than the company’s $4 billion goal.\nSource: Bloomberg and author’s calculations.\nValuation\nAs I’ve explained in previous articles, my valuation approach is to look into the next few years of revenues and earnings rather than just focus on this year or the next, to see if the stock has upside potential over a time frame of 2-4 years. Therefore, I’ll use 2025 estimates to see if Palantir is currently undervalued or not, and use its historical valuation based on its revenue multiple as the company is still not profitable in its bottom-line.\nPalantir’s trading history is limited, as the company performed its IPO in 2020, but has traded at about 24x EV/revenues over the past year. Assuming that Palantir will have a slightly lower valuation multiple in the future, as its growth rates decrease in the coming years, I think it is reasonable to assume a 20x EV/revenue multiple by 2024. Note that this is a strong de-rate from its current valuation of close to 30x revenues, hence this seems to be a conservative assumption.\nThis methodology gives me a price target of $40.75 by end-2024, implying an upside potential of more than 70% over the next three years. This shows that Palantir has strong upside potential over the next three years and is currently a great play for long-term investors.\nBottom Line\nPalantir has very good long-term growth prospects and its recent impressive growth in the U.S. commercial business provides evidence that Palantir is only starting to tap a very large market for the company. I was already bullish on Palantir, but its push for growth in the commercial business was ahead of my expectations, showing that its strategy is right and has a lot of potential to increase its customer base.\nThis provides a strong support for annual revenue growth of 20%-30% in the next four years, and being conservative I see plenty of upside in the next few years, making Palantir a great growth play in the big data investment theme.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":830,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":20,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/825369426"}
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