Palantir: Strong Upside Ahead

Seeking Alpha2021-10-14

Summary Palantir's growth strategy in the commercial business is bearing fruit, showing that there is a lot of potential to increase its customer base. This is a strong support for annual revenue ...

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精彩评论

Tanyl
2021-10-14
Tanyl
Must buy PLTR
Khoo12
2021-10-14
Khoo12
Yes
KL8388
2021-10-14
KL8388
Keep
AnaiAnai
2021-10-14
AnaiAnai
not so fast
- adriandino:
  buy buy buy
- YeeMeng:
  accumulate
- Veldora:
  [Allin]long term potential.
canoboi
2021-10-14
canoboi
Like and comment thanks
- JerryT:
  likeee
JerryT
2021-10-14
JerryT
Yess. Like and get PLTR to the moon!
- canoboi:
  like

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This is driven by its software that is quite unique and should lead to strong customer demand over the coming years, as the need to interpret and analyzed big datasets is only expected to rise in the future.\nNevertheless, there is also a lot of hype about this company and investors should be aware that Palantir is still a small company and its business is in a very early growth phase, thus I don’t see Palantir becoming one of the big tech companies over the next decade.\nThis expectation is justified by Palantir’s business model, which is focused on government and large corporate and therefore is not easily scalable. Indeed, the company only had 169 customers at the end of June, a relatively small number of customers due to its historical focus on large clients.\nAs I’ve discussed in previous articles, I invest mainly in secular growth companies in a few investing themes, namely semiconductors, electric vehicles, digital payments, 5G and big data. In this last theme, I see Palantir as one of the best picks, and in this article, I do an update on its investment case.\nRecent Earnings & Estimates\nSince my last article, Palantir has released Q2 2021 earnings, maintain a very good operating momentum. Its revenues in the quarter amounted to $376 million, up by 49% YoY. This strong growth was driven largely by its U.S. commercial business that reported exponential growth, up by 90% YoY.\nSource: Palantir.\nThis growth rate in Palantir’s commercial business is impressive, but not necessarily unexpected. While Palantir has focused historically on governments and large corporations as its key customers, the company has been changing its strategy and has recruited, in recent months, salespeople to target smaller and medium-sized companies.\nIn Q1 2021, Palantir had recruited about 50 dedicated salespeople and this has translated quite rapidly in new customer acquisitions and higher revenue in a relatively short period of time. In Q2, the company added 20 net new customers and total commercial customers increased by 32% QoQ, while in the first six months of the year its commercial customer count increased by 61%. I think this is a strong signal that Palantir offers a good value proposition to customers of different sizes, boding quite well for its growth in the next few years.\nIndeed, Palantir’s edge is to offer a software that is used to analyze big datasets, so that users can make better decisions regarding their needs and projects. Palantir’s software is viewed as a central operating system for customer’s data, which usually can be spread across a large number of teams and departments and possibly in different countries.\nThe strong growth reported in the last quarter on the commercial business side is clearly a demonstration that Palantir can leverage its software to a much larger customer base, making me even more bullish as the company can gain a lot of customers both in the U.S. and abroad for years to come.\nThis is supported by Palantir’s push to hire more salespeople, with the company hiring 60 additional salespeople in Q2, and more expected until the end of the year. This means that revenue growth in the commercial business is not expected to slow down in the next few quarters, boding very well for overall revenue growth.\nOn the government side, Palantir’s revenues increased by 66% YoY in Q2 2021 to $232 million, also a very strong growth rate, and this growth is expected to remain at a strong pace in the near future. For instance, Palantir has recentlybeen selectedby the U.S. Army for the delivery of the Army’s Intelligence data fabric and analytics foundation in a new contract valued at $823 million, for a period of four years, being a good tailwind for revenue growth in coming years.\nIts total commercial revenue increased by 28% YoY to $144 million in Q2 2021, which means that the majority of commercial revenues are generated in international markets and therefore the potential for revenue growth in the U.S. is still largely untapped.\nBeyond revenue growth, Palantir is also improving meaningfully its profitability and has achieved an adjusted operating margin (which excludes stock-based compensation) of 31% in the last quarter, much higher than in Q2 2020. Even though Palantir is not expected to report profits in the short term, from an operating standpoint, it is improving its margins due to a larger scale, showing that its business has operating leverage. As the company gains more customers and increases revenue at a higher rate than expenses, operating margins should continue to rise being a key factor for achieving break-even in the next few years.\nSource: Palantir.\nDuring the first six months of 2021, Palantir’s revenues were up by 49% YoY to $717 million, thus Palantir is on path to generate annual revenues of around $1.4-$1.5 billion in 2021. Current consensus is for $1.51 billion in revenues this year, which seems possible to beat as the company has reported higher growth than was expected in the two previous quarters.\nRegarding its cash flow generation, Palantir is also showing a good performance, given that it has raised its free cash flow guidance to about $300 million in 2021, while previously expecting some $150 million, benefiting from new customers and contracts that have upfront payments. This is supported by its ‘order backlog’, or what the company calls its remaining deal value, which amounted to more than $3.4 billion at the end of June.\nSource: Palantir.\nGoing forward, Palantir is expected to maintain strong revenue growth, even though it is estimated to drop below +30% YoY in the next couple of years. This may be too conservative, given that Palantir is not showing any signs of slowing down in both the government and commercial businesses, which gives the company a good margin to beat medium-term expectations.\nThis provides a strong backdrop for Palantir to achieve annual revenue growth of 30%+ during the next four years and reach its target of $4 billion in revenues by 2025. However, as the company becomes larger I’m expecting lower revenue growth than Palantir’s goal, forecasting annual revenue growth of 20%-25% by 2024 and 2025. Being conservative, this leads to around $3.8 billion in revenue by 2025, slightly lower than the company’s $4 billion goal.\nSource: Bloomberg and author’s calculations.\nValuation\nAs I’ve explained in previous articles, my valuation approach is to look into the next few years of revenues and earnings rather than just focus on this year or the next, to see if the stock has upside potential over a time frame of 2-4 years. Therefore, I’ll use 2025 estimates to see if Palantir is currently undervalued or not, and use its historical valuation based on its revenue multiple as the company is still not profitable in its bottom-line.\nPalantir’s trading history is limited, as the company performed its IPO in 2020, but has traded at about 24x EV/revenues over the past year. Assuming that Palantir will have a slightly lower valuation multiple in the future, as its growth rates decrease in the coming years, I think it is reasonable to assume a 20x EV/revenue multiple by 2024. Note that this is a strong de-rate from its current valuation of close to 30x revenues, hence this seems to be a conservative assumption.\nThis methodology gives me a price target of $40.75 by end-2024, implying an upside potential of more than 70% over the next three years. This shows that Palantir has strong upside potential over the next three years and is currently a great play for long-term investors.\nBottom Line\nPalantir has very good long-term growth prospects and its recent impressive growth in the U.S. commercial business provides evidence that Palantir is only starting to tap a very large market for the company. I was already bullish on Palantir, but its push for growth in the commercial business was ahead of my expectations, showing that its strategy is right and has a lot of potential to increase its customer base.\nThis provides a strong support for annual revenue growth of 20%-30% in the next four years, and being conservative I see plenty of upside in the next few years, making Palantir a great growth play in the big data investment theme.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":825815128,"gmtCreate":1634216734675,"gmtModify":1634216734784,"author":{"id":"4087109808120260","authorId":"4087109808120260","name":"Tanyl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/174329973340cf0f5b68791ee5b08afd","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087109808120260","authorIdStr":"4087109808120260"},"htmlText":"Must buy PLTR","listText":"Must buy PLTR","text":"Must buy PLTR","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825815128","repostId":1131725095,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":825803319,"gmtCreate":1634214227280,"gmtModify":1634214227422,"author":{"id":"3564738902623228","authorId":"3564738902623228","name":"Khoo12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1637796379aeed1538616117eb09330","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3564738902623228","authorIdStr":"3564738902623228"},"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825803319","repostId":1131725095,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":825124653,"gmtCreate":1634211592188,"gmtModify":1634211592293,"author":{"id":"3576828470442075","authorId":"3576828470442075","name":"KL8388","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576828470442075","authorIdStr":"3576828470442075"},"htmlText":"Keep","listText":"Keep","text":"Keep","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825124653","repostId":1131725095,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":825361998,"gmtCreate":1634202257827,"gmtModify":1634202257983,"author":{"id":"3583884958321017","authorId":"3583884958321017","name":"AnaiAnai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b0d0d8e20a4082ac0bc6a98756546ec","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583884958321017","authorIdStr":"3583884958321017"},"htmlText":"not so fast","listText":"not so fast","text":"not so fast","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825361998","repostId":1131725095,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6195145,"gmtCreate":1634202594016,"gmtModify":1634636043037,"authorId":3557838603033373,"author":{"id":3557838603033373,"idStr":"3557838603033373","authorId":3557838603033373,"name":"adriandino","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee1cd14ed5057e0ad135ec52ba710cf","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":825361998,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"buy buy buy","text":"buy buy buy","html":"buy buy buy"},{"id":6195167,"gmtCreate":1634202774298,"gmtModify":1634636042166,"authorId":3582597737343890,"author":{"id":3582597737343890,"idStr":"3582597737343890","authorId":3582597737343890,"name":"YeeMeng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":825361998,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"accumulate","text":"accumulate","html":"accumulate"},{"id":6195306,"gmtCreate":1634203876582,"gmtModify":1634636035279,"authorId":3580473686930895,"author":{"id":3580473686930895,"idStr":"3580473686930895","authorId":3580473686930895,"name":"Veldora","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c60768e017f3418615cd7dea3a291ec","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":825361998,"type":1,"supId":6195167,"prevId":0,"content":"[Allin]long term potential. ","text":"[Allin]long term potential. ","html":"[Allin]long term potential. 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Like and get PLTR to the moon!","listText":"Yess. Like and get PLTR to the moon!","text":"Yess. 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