股市智造圈
2021-08-27
$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$
感觉有的搞
@看遍世界景赚足天下钱:
阿里和腾讯能抄底吗?
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evence
2021-08-27
evence
阿里巴巴今天都被国家弄了 事情才刚开始 现在还敢去抄吗
什么也没有了~
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class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae1e890956d4d5c57f347025b4fe652\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"385\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9227c956f19229e15ca43f586b4a5161\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"458\"></p><p>最近阿里巴巴319刀每股,跌到152刀,跌幅高达52%;腾讯从773,跌到412,跌幅达47%。阿里跌回两年前,腾讯跌回一年前。</p><p>目前阿里的市盈率约20,而对标的亚马逊,当前的市盈率是78.</p><p>腾讯的市盈率约23,对标的Facebook,当前的市盈率是36.</p><p>阿里二季度的财报,二季度营业收入同比增长33.8%,亚马逊同比增长27%</p><p>腾讯二季度的财报,二季度营业收入同比增长20.6%,Facebook同比增长55.6%。</p><p>要知道增长率和PE是成正相关、强关联的关系。</p><p>按照这个简单的对比,当前阿里巴巴的估值应该算是比较低的。腾讯虽然PE跟Facebook比不高,但是因为增长率也不算高,并没有性价比优势。</p><p>按这个简单的对比,阿里巴巴在当前,是性价比最高的了。</p><p>但是,有个点更加重要,就是未来的发展趋势。</p><p>阿里当前涨不上去,一是国家打压巨头,反垄断力度加大,二是对增长率的预期下降,电商的增量已经被开发得差不多了,现在是存量时代,几大巨头都在抢流量,内卷严重,这才是涨不上去的核心原因。而这里面还涉及人口增长问题。人口数据将严重影响未来中国经济和互联网的发展。</p><p>那么,还能抄底吗?</p><p>我觉得还可以。</p><p>1、电商的流量增量是越来越少了,但是电商的产品品类、数量的增量还有很多。</p><p>也就是说,消费者的数量可能增加得越来越少,但是消费者可以从电商上买到的产品和服务却在无限扩大。</p><p>2、科技和投资的回报,会慢慢显现。</p><p>腾讯对外投资的资本增长是没有计入盈利的,阿里巴巴的很多科技投入也没有在财报显示,这两项都是长线型的,需要时间。而腾讯和阿里都做足了长线考虑。</p><p>最后,我觉得这两只股是中国经济发展的重要代表,长期我还是看好中国经济的。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae1e890956d4d5c57f347025b4fe652\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"385\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9227c956f19229e15ca43f586b4a5161\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"458\"></p><p>最近阿里巴巴319刀每股,跌到152刀,跌幅高达52%;腾讯从773,跌到412,跌幅达47%。阿里跌回两年前,腾讯跌回一年前。</p><p>目前阿里的市盈率约20,而对标的亚马逊,当前的市盈率是78.</p><p>腾讯的市盈率约23,对标的Facebook,当前的市盈率是36.</p><p>阿里二季度的财报,二季度营业收入同比增长33.8%,亚马逊同比增长27%</p><p>腾讯二季度的财报,二季度营业收入同比增长20.6%,Facebook同比增长55.6%。</p><p>要知道增长率和PE是成正相关、强关联的关系。</p><p>按照这个简单的对比,当前阿里巴巴的估值应该算是比较低的。腾讯虽然PE跟Facebook比不高,但是因为增长率也不算高,并没有性价比优势。</p><p>按这个简单的对比,阿里巴巴在当前,是性价比最高的了。</p><p>但是,有个点更加重要,就是未来的发展趋势。</p><p>阿里当前涨不上去,一是国家打压巨头,反垄断力度加大,二是对增长率的预期下降,电商的增量已经被开发得差不多了,现在是存量时代,几大巨头都在抢流量,内卷严重,这才是涨不上去的核心原因。而这里面还涉及人口增长问题。人口数据将严重影响未来中国经济和互联网的发展。</p><p>那么,还能抄底吗?</p><p>我觉得还可以。</p><p>1、电商的流量增量是越来越少了,但是电商的产品品类、数量的增量还有很多。</p><p>也就是说,消费者的数量可能增加得越来越少,但是消费者可以从电商上买到的产品和服务却在无限扩大。</p><p>2、科技和投资的回报,会慢慢显现。</p><p>腾讯对外投资的资本增长是没有计入盈利的,阿里巴巴的很多科技投入也没有在财报显示,这两项都是长线型的,需要时间。而腾讯和阿里都做足了长线考虑。</p><p>最后,我觉得这两只股是中国经济发展的重要代表,长期我还是看好中国经济的。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 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阿里巴巴今天都被国家弄了 事情才刚开始 现在还敢去抄吗