特斯拉中长期看法

2017-08-04

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 特斯拉核心是电池，电池是材料和电化学领域，突破非常难，电池的发展史，1836年丹尼尔电池的诞生到1859年铅酸电池的发明，1888年实现了电池的商品化，1899年发明了镍-镉电池。跨越死亡谷，要有经济性与便利性，充电和续航焦虑感，难成为大众产品，从图中交付量来看，Model S/X在重复Roadster之路，尝鲜消费者后，萎缩了，不能做空，Model 3可经续命一段时间，获利可以分批减仓,要考虑大盘与市值。
Musk在Q2电话会议上表示，过去一年大约6.3万人取消了Model 3订单，从51.8万辆下降为45.5万辆。#做空TESLA吗#　

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

敏敏
2017-08-04
敏敏
经济性便利性充电续航焦虑这些其实都不是问题马车时代出现燃油车一样有这些问题加油还要找加油站一箱油加满又能跑多少公里任何突破容易也好难也好始终需要突破人类才能进步发展也始终会有人去做这样的尝试目前特斯拉做的最好最认真那么他就有理由获得资本以便于更好的突破
- EricFu回复敏敏:
  这个角度是对的
- 敏敏回复EricFu:
  我是这么看的特斯拉好比带头大哥他的出现使得关注者越来也多这样会推动行业的发展就如信息时代一样发展会越来越快最终改变人类而这一切燃油车公司自我革命似乎很难那么特斯拉无疑会是最有力的革命者
- EricFu:
  这点认同，主要担心电池技术突破时间不好预估，潜在风险在这里
EricFu
2017-08-04
EricFu
统一回复：电是最佳能源传输与消耗方式，电动车是未来，但难确定何时普及，问题在于目前经济性与便利性不够好，难以普及，从销量来看，Model S没啥增长，Musk也知道增加车型降低价格，提高经济性，但便利性受制于技术电池能量密度成本充电时间，电池技术突破难以预测，这是担心的地方,毕竟过了新鲜粉丝期后，销量会萎缩。看好就加仓吧，不是要大家做空。
- 心如止风回复春风拂动:
  你说你的观点，别人说别人的观点，怎么跟你不一样就是死忠粉了？
- 沉默之沙回复EricFu:
  谢谢建议，好自为之，自作自受.
- EricFu回复沉默之沙:
  华为有一篇文章叫跨越死亡谷，建议看看，讲的新产品从尝鲜个群，过渡到大众接受，中间是死亡谷
- 沉默之沙:
  “难确定何时普及...”，到现在都看不清已经开始普及的趋势，哈哈哈哈...
- 春风拂动:
  这话客观，无奈，忠粉多，看谁说一点不好的话就喷。何必呢，难到因为几个人就能影响，一个几百亿美元的股票走势吗，如果，真心相信特斯拉，又何必如此激动。
Zhouzqbb
2017-08-04
Zhouzqbb
可以超长待机的Norkia死了，苹果革命性的突破也不是在待机时间。特斯拉也一样，核心的变革不是电池而是生活方式。想想现在买手机是因为它通话清晰还是因为它待机时间超长？这些早都不是了。
- 二饼回复uabetter:
  不要抬杠不行就是不行
- uabetter:
  Nokia
- uabetter:
  nurkia公司可是活的好好的
壹念之間
2017-08-04
壹念之間
粘贴下我在雪，球上回复的一段话：电动车重心低，操控好，能量利用率高，没尾气，加速快，没噪音，安全性高…如果你静下来想一想百年汽车走过的路，会突然发现，这些优点不正是汽车行业百年来一直在竭力追求的吗，把车做的越来越低压低重心，努力提高内燃机的能效比，为了尾气达标甚至数据作假，为了隔音加大量的隔音棉，为了加速快用6缸8缸12缸疯狂烧油等等，而现在这一切的努力在电动车的出现后，都成了蹒跚爬行的优化而已。
- 沉默之沙:
  这哥们是近视加斜视加屈光不正，苦了你还费这么大劲帮他矫正视力...
壹念之間
2017-08-04
壹念之間
如果选择坐在井里看天空，只能看到一块圆圆的天而已，不同井里的人都在比拼，我的井口大，我的井口更大，我的井口是最大的，大又如何，这时候有的人已经选择跳出这个井了……这个比喻，可以用在燃油车和电动车的对比，可以用在不同愿景企业的对比，可以用在投资者不同眼光的对比，所以最后你如何理解这个比喻，这与我无关只与你有关……不同眼光的人有不同的未来，所以，跳出去吧。
- lcn:
  靠....我居然会错过怎么热烈的讨论，8.4我干嘛去了……
心如止风
2017-08-05
心如止风
特斯拉的核心不是电池，是智能系统，就像苹果的核心不是大屏而是iOS 一样，电池即使在未来一段时间不会有突破也绝对够商业化运营了，加满电能跑400公里还不够你用吗？随着产量的增加，单车成本下降是肯定的，订单取消不是因为大家不喜欢特斯拉了，而是等不起了，特斯拉现在最大的问题是产能，我相信，只要有钱，产能提升不是问题，不懂科技的就别玩科技股，否则你会输的很惨

发表看法

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特斯拉好比带头大哥 他的出现使得关注者越来也多 这样会推动行业的发展 就如信息时代一样 发展会越来越快 最终改变人类 而这一切燃油车公司自我革命似乎很难 那么特斯拉无疑会是最有力的革命者","text":"我是这么看的 特斯拉好比带头大哥 他的出现使得关注者越来也多 这样会推动行业的发展 就如信息时代一样 发展会越来越快 最终改变人类 而这一切燃油车公司自我革命似乎很难 那么特斯拉无疑会是最有力的革命者","html":"我是这么看的 特斯拉好比带头大哥 他的出现使得关注者越来也多 这样会推动行业的发展 就如信息时代一样 发展会越来越快 最终改变人类 而这一切燃油车公司自我革命似乎很难 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