买卖末日期权，总结经验教训

郝医生

2017-08-03

#做空TESLA吗#

#每日一单#

#老虎财报季#

最近学习期权的垂直套利，有点手痒，想用大热门$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 试手，交易了特斯拉的末日期权。

以昨天开盘后的价格317为平价期权，它8.4行权日的call和put的售价加起来大约等于20，也就是说财报后股票在大概率会在一倍标准差之内波动，也就是317加减20的范围波动，297到337。

这个波动20大概是股票价格的6.3%，剩下我需要主观判断这个波动是高估还是低估。我认为特斯拉是多空双方剧烈争取的惨烈战场，波动应该会非常大，而且我不知道它究竟会涨会跌，就选择了在337以上和297以下做收益/风险比高的买方策略。

所以我做了以下操作，我的买卖比我算出来的股票价格还保守了一些，万一波动没有那么大我的所有期权都变废纸了怎么办。以下都是8.4的末日期权。

买332.5call 3.7

卖337.5call 2.77

买302.5put 4.29

卖297.5put 3.02

如果股票价格涨了，那么put成为废纸，通过买卖，我投入1.27的权利金。最大盈利范围应该是在332.5到337.5之间，这样337.5call也变成废纸。

如果股票价格跌了，那么call成为废纸，通过买卖，我付出权利金0.97。最大盈利范围应该是在297.5到302.5之间。

结果呢，股票价格波动果然被低估，并且远超我估值之外，到348左右。所以没有达到最大盈利。但是通过这些操作，我买卖1手应该盈利300刀左右。

总结一下经验教训。垂直套利比单向期权风险可控。但是我为什么没有获得更大的收益呢？因为我还是估算保守了，股票波动范围比我预期的还要大的多。但是这个也没办法，毕竟是末日期权，面临双杀的可能性。

纪念一下第一次用期权交易策略构建收益/风险比高的方法，以后财报季还可以一试。

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

大脚板
2017-08-04
大脚板
1、楼主我怎么感觉你现在这种情况就是最大化收益了，如果在332.5-337.5之间，假设是335，收益不是（335-332.5）+2.77-3.7-1.27=0.3吗，
2、最大收益感觉就是买卖的行权价差-最大风险（期权双杀）
3、而股票在297-337之间变化的概率是68%，所以这个策略赚钱的概率不高
不知道说的对不对，楼主考虑一下
- 郝医生:
  关于期权收益我确实没搞清楚，应该在332.5到337.5之间有个临界点是盈利和亏损的平衡点，高于这个点的收益都是正的。最大收益是买卖行权价差减最大风险。
- 郝医生:
  是说股票波动有68%的概率在一倍标准差波动，但是我预期波动范围更大，所以我选择价外期权的买方为主的策略，到时涨了或跌了以后变成价内期权，这个收益大。如果我预期波动范围在一倍标准差范围内，我会选择一倍标准差之内的价内期权做卖方为主的策略，涨或者跌了但在我预期的范围以下，反而变成了相对来说的价外期权，这个风险小。所以是看我的预期是高于或者低于一倍标准差，而不是一倍标准差的绝对概率。
monad
2017-08-04
monad
感觉比裸期权靠谱不少啊，感谢分享！PS: 期权方面的书楼主有什么推荐嘛，也想学习下(^^)
- monad回复九格:
  收到！谢谢大大 :D
- 九格:
  圣经是麦克米伦的期权投资策略
- 郝医生:
  我看以前老虎有人推荐立体化交易时代。我也买了电子书，看了一部分，觉得期权的世界太丰富多彩了。有些还看不太懂。
老啃资本
2017-08-04
老啃资本
卖期权的核心运用是减少损失，万一波动不足，全部成废纸能减少点纯粹做多波动的损失（只买call和put）,代价是收益有上限，长期来看这么做是很聪明的做法。不过我个人认为更聪明的做法是价值投资，价值投资看上去很蠢，人家不追求一年几倍的收益，只追求30年200倍（复合年均增长率20%）的收益。
- 老啃资本回复九格:
  是的
- 九格回复老啃资本:
  就是只吃公司成长红利，不吃对赌利益？
- 老啃资本回复AllahuAkbar:
  不需要，呵呵，想了想，还是不解释了，累挺
- AllahuAkbar回复老啃资本:
  价值投资难道不需要公司股价往上涨来获利么？如果需要，那我买股票来获利，跟我买期权来获利，根本没区别啊？难道我手里的股票不是另外一个人卖给我的？我赚的钱不是他亏的钱？
- 老啃资本回复AllahuAkbar:
  给别人打工赚钱，投资赚钱，创业赚钱能一样么？不同的投资策略都需要共同的东西～～～钱，别说钱是有限的，时间和精力更是有限的，哪种策略赚钱都是投入巨大的，分析基本面和分析波动率都是需要时间和精力的。另外，靠期权赚钱是纯粹的零和博弈，抛去手续费实际上是负和博弈，你赚的钱都是其他交易者亏的，价值投资是正和的，跟企业和时间做朋友，享受价值创造的收益。相比之下，期权策略残酷的多
0o零o0
2017-08-04
0o零o0
我想知道的是你这样做一手得需要多少资金😓
- AllahuAkbar回复0o零o0:
  这个套利只要220刀 5000的账号可以做几十个吧
- 0o零o0回复郝医生:
  假设保证金在5000，买了一手call和一手put就没办法卖一手call和put了…做这手套利得资金雄厚才行😳
- 郝医生:
  (3.7➖2.77➕4.29➖3.02)✖️100等于220刀
dongxie811
2017-08-04
dongxie811
看不懂在说什么，那么麻烦干什么，选一个看好的股票，直接买一把，等着他涨不就行了？
- 老啃资本:
  这叫做多波动
- 明亮蓝影:
  多看书多学习
- 核桃桃:
  😓
- T7486957:
  多看书
Jack_今晚打老虎
2017-08-07
Jack_今晚打老虎
又看涨又看跌，看不出你的重心耶
- 九格回复Jack_今晚打老虎:
  横盘这个策略就亏
- Jack_今晚打老虎回复郝医生:
  那横盘岂不是要吃亏
- 郝医生:
  就是不清楚方向，所以双向都做。如果知道看涨，直接买单边期权了。

发表看法

113

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我怎么感觉你现在这种情况就是最大化收益了，如果在332.5-337.5之间，假设是335，收益不是（335-332.5）+2.77-3.7-1.27=0.3吗，\n 2、最大收益感觉就是买卖的行权价差-最大风险（期权双杀）\n 3、而股票在297-337之间变化的概率是68%，所以这个策略赚钱的概率不高\n 不知道说的对不对，楼主考虑一下","text":"1、楼主 我怎么感觉你现在这种情况就是最大化收益了，如果在332.5-337.5之间，假设是335，收益不是（335-332.5）+2.77-3.7-1.27=0.3吗，\n 2、最大收益感觉就是买卖的行权价差-最大风险（期权双杀）\n 3、而股票在297-337之间变化的概率是68%，所以这个策略赚钱的概率不高\n 不知道说的对不对，楼主考虑一下","html":"1、楼主 我怎么感觉你现在这种情况就是最大化收益了，如果在332.5-337.5之间，假设是335，收益不是（335-332.5）+2.77-3.7-1.27=0.3吗，\n 2、最大收益感觉就是买卖的行权价差-最大风险（期权双杀）\n 3、而股票在297-337之间变化的概率是68%，所以这个策略赚钱的概率不高\n 不知道说的对不对，楼主考虑一下","likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"subComments":[{"id":392587,"commentId":"392587","gmtCreate":1501797708604,"gmtModify":1501797708604,"authorId":3453463362950002,"author":{"id":3453463362950002,"idStr":"3453463362950002","authorId":3453463362950002,"name":"郝医生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/5bffcb825f33ad9b7eec969a186658e7","vip":2,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":81000,"objectIdStr":"81000","type":1,"supId":392501,"supIdStr":"392501","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"关于期权收益我确实没搞清楚，应该在332.5到337.5之间有个临界点是盈利和亏损的平衡点，高于这个点的收益都是正的。最大收益是买卖行权价差减最大风险。","text":"关于期权收益我确实没搞清楚，应该在332.5到337.5之间有个临界点是盈利和亏损的平衡点，高于这个点的收益都是正的。最大收益是买卖行权价差减最大风险。","html":"关于期权收益我确实没搞清楚，应该在332.5到337.5之间有个临界点是盈利和亏损的平衡点，高于这个点的收益都是正的。最大收益是买卖行权价差减最大风险。"},{"id":392586,"commentId":"392586","gmtCreate":1501797223983,"gmtModify":1501797223983,"authorId":3453463362950002,"author":{"id":3453463362950002,"idStr":"3453463362950002","authorId":3453463362950002,"name":"郝医生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/5bffcb825f33ad9b7eec969a186658e7","vip":2,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":81000,"objectIdStr":"81000","type":1,"supId":392501,"supIdStr":"392501","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"是说股票波动有68%的概率在一倍标准差波动，但是我预期波动范围更大，所以我选择价外期权的买方为主的策略，到时涨了或跌了以后变成价内期权，这个收益大。如果我预期波动范围在一倍标准差范围内，我会选择一倍标准差之内的价内期权做卖方为主的策略，涨或者跌了但在我预期的范围以下，反而变成了相对来说的价外期权，这个风险小。所以是看我的预期是高于或者低于一倍标准差，而不是一倍标准差的绝对概率。","text":"是说股票波动有68%的概率在一倍标准差波动，但是我预期波动范围更大，所以我选择价外期权的买方为主的策略，到时涨了或跌了以后变成价内期权，这个收益大。如果我预期波动范围在一倍标准差范围内，我会选择一倍标准差之内的价内期权做卖方为主的策略，涨或者跌了但在我预期的范围以下，反而变成了相对来说的价外期权，这个风险小。所以是看我的预期是高于或者低于一倍标准差，而不是一倍标准差的绝对概率。","html":"是说股票波动有68%的概率在一倍标准差波动，但是我预期波动范围更大，所以我选择价外期权的买方为主的策略，到时涨了或跌了以后变成价内期权，这个收益大。如果我预期波动范围在一倍标准差范围内，我会选择一倍标准差之内的价内期权做卖方为主的策略，涨或者跌了但在我预期的范围以下，反而变成了相对来说的价外期权，这个风险小。所以是看我的预期是高于或者低于一倍标准差，而不是一倍标准差的绝对概率。"}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":392971,"commentId":"392971","gmtCreate":1501834966548,"gmtModify":1501834966548,"authorId":3453162177004711,"author":{"id":3453162177004711,"idStr":"3453162177004711","authorId":3453162177004711,"name":"monad","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b8242032eea20043a02050d088caea9","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":81000,"objectIdStr":"81000","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"感觉比裸期权靠谱不少啊，感谢分享！PS: 期权方面的书楼主有什么推荐嘛，也想学习下(^^)","text":"感觉比裸期权靠谱不少啊，感谢分享！PS: 期权方面的书楼主有什么推荐嘛，也想学习下(^^)","html":"感觉比裸期权靠谱不少啊，感谢分享！PS: 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:D","text":"收到！谢谢大大 :D","html":"收到！谢谢大大 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