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@期权小班长：FOMC市场两极分化，特斯拉惊现巨额put大单

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referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd34c491d4503452e2e2a5e25317e896\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"528\">而从历史行情来看，如果加息幅度小于等于75基点，市场大概率会触底反弹，周三大概率收涨。</p><p>问题是反弹之后的市场走势会如何呢？</p><p>前车之鉴是，5月4日美联储宣布近22年来紧缩力度最强的货币政策，标普500指数当天却创下了44年来最大的加息日涨幅。然而随后就是持续半个月的大幅下跌，在周120均线附近找到支撑。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df850e5cac9cd59f89c3a1c5bfe5587\" tg-width=\"1084\" tg-height=\"1537\">但在预期兑现方面本次有所不同。5月加息公布前股指呈横盘状态，紧缩的货币政策完全出乎市场意料；而本次FOMC会议前市场充分兑现了加息预期，连续跌了接近10%。所以有没有可能这次信息披露后市场平稳反弹呢？</p><p>就在我考虑这方面可能性的时候，看到了一张<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 的期权异动大单：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020230120%20500.0%20PUT\">$TSLA 20230120 500.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp;</p><p>这张行权价为500的put大单，总成交额1481万美元。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc9d619af34c7620c56c05d8a9ee6377\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"669\">行权价500是个什么概念呢？恰好位于年5均线上。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42924a4314c66461978abb4f9e2e61e1\" tg-width=\"1032\" tg-height=\"1517\">对应<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> 回调点位，大约是3600左右。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c656ab67c9e890ac49017d174b601e7\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1654\"></p><p>其他科技巨头的期权也在异动中找到这样的大单，比如英伟达&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020220715%20135.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20220715 135.0 PUT$</a><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9624c24c98cc9943c1b4524a0bf6f5c1\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1330\">再综合<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIX\">$标普500波动率指数(VIX)$</a> 考虑，目前VIX回调至31，可能会再一次爆发，所以这次FOMC我选择买put。</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>美联储将在北京时间周四（6月16日）2：00公布利率决议，目前市场预期6月份加息75基点。但我认为这次FOMC更多着墨于7月之后的货币政策规划。毕竟在本次会议之前美联储多位官员出面就50基点预期进行沟通，如果因为一个CPI数据说变就变，那之后这样的市场沟通就没有任何意义了。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd34c491d4503452e2e2a5e25317e896\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"528\">而从历史行情来看，如果加息幅度小于等于75基点，市场大概率会触底反弹，周三大概率收涨。</p><p>问题是反弹之后的市场走势会如何呢？</p><p>前车之鉴是，5月4日美联储宣布近22年来紧缩力度最强的货币政策，标普500指数当天却创下了44年来最大的加息日涨幅。然而随后就是持续半个月的大幅下跌，在周120均线附近找到支撑。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df850e5cac9cd59f89c3a1c5bfe5587\" tg-width=\"1084\" tg-height=\"1537\">但在预期兑现方面本次有所不同。5月加息公布前股指呈横盘状态，紧缩的货币政策完全出乎市场意料；而本次FOMC会议前市场充分兑现了加息预期，连续跌了接近10%。所以有没有可能这次信息披露后市场平稳反弹呢？</p><p>就在我考虑这方面可能性的时候，看到了一张<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 的期权异动大单：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020230120%20500.0%20PUT\">$TSLA 20230120 500.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp;</p><p>这张行权价为500的put大单，总成交额1481万美元。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc9d619af34c7620c56c05d8a9ee6377\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"669\">行权价500是个什么概念呢？恰好位于年5均线上。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42924a4314c66461978abb4f9e2e61e1\" tg-width=\"1032\" tg-height=\"1517\">对应<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> 回调点位，大约是3600左右。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c656ab67c9e890ac49017d174b601e7\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1654\"></p><p>其他科技巨头的期权也在异动中找到这样的大单，比如英伟达&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020220715%20135.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20220715 135.0 PUT$</a><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9624c24c98cc9943c1b4524a0bf6f5c1\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1330\">再综合<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIX\">$标普500波动率指数(VIX)$</a> 考虑，目前VIX回调至31，可能会再一次爆发，所以这次FOMC我选择买put。</p></body></html>","text":"美联储将在北京时间周四（6月16日）2：00公布利率决议，目前市场预期6月份加息75基点。但我认为这次FOMC更多着墨于7月之后的货币政策规划。毕竟在本次会议之前美联储多位官员出面就50基点预期进行沟通，如果因为一个CPI数据说变就变，那之后这样的市场沟通就没有任何意义了。而从历史行情来看，如果加息幅度小于等于75基点，市场大概率会触底反弹，周三大概率收涨。 问题是反弹之后的市场走势会如何呢？ 前车之鉴是，5月4日美联储宣布近22年来紧缩力度最强的货币政策，标普500指数当天却创下了44年来最大的加息日涨幅。然而随后就是持续半个月的大幅下跌，在周120均线附近找到支撑。但在预期兑现方面本次有所不同。5月加息公布前股指呈横盘状态，紧缩的货币政策完全出乎市场意料；而本次FOMC会议前市场充分兑现了加息预期，连续跌了接近10%。所以有没有可能这次信息披露后市场平稳反弹呢？ 就在我考虑这方面可能性的时候，看到了一张$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 的期权异动大单：$TSLA 20230120 500.0 PUT$ 这张行权价为500的put大单，总成交额1481万美元。行权价500是个什么概念呢？恰好位于年5均线上。对应$标普500(.SPX)$ 回调点位，大约是3600左右。 其他科技巨头的期权也在异动中找到这样的大单，比如英伟达 $NVDA 20220715 135.0 PUT$再综合$标普500波动率指数(VIX)$ 考虑，目前VIX回调至31，可能会再一次爆发，所以这次FOMC我选择买put。","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/689050831","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["NVDA",".SPX","TSLA","VIX"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1094,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1699,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":25,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/689423957"}