炒股变富
2022-06-17
Tiger is here
@期权小班长:
除了加息,你还应该关注本周五的四巫日
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/690687251\" target=\"_blank\">12月17日四巫日</a>:当天无事,周四大跌</li> \n <li>以及3月18日四巫日:俄乌局势缓和,市场大涨</li> \n</ul><p>从之前的历史记录来看,四巫日前后行情波动剧烈。本周四巫日恰好在加息之后,或成为再度变盘转折点。</p><p>目前市场对于加息预期非常悲观,如图所示,根据美联储观察工具显示交易员普遍预期加息75基点的概率为95.9%。但实际上在这之前,鲍威尔在内的多位美联储高官一直在暗示6月河7月各加息50个基点,截止到9月前的路径规划十分明确。</p><p>所以针对5月难看的通胀数据,更有可能是进一步明确9月的加息策略。当6月加息低于预期时,市场就会触底反弹,行情看涨,而不出意外的是周四大概率继续下跌,借口我已经想好了,就是9月货币紧缩政策超出预期。</p><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d19e50bf9bdf55977c1b247735d2360\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\">说起来昨天也是一个值得纪念的日子,标普500指数正式跌破拜登上任时的3816.22点。对于这种深度回调,有一个说法是,每位总统在任时大盘都会对他上任第一天的点数进行测试。川普比较幸运,2020年疫情导致股市触及低位时美联储及时进行政策调整大放水。但拜登恐怕要持续背负着股市负增长的业绩了。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e81098cdda75b6e9d34edcceaef5d106\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1663\"></p><h4>关于<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/BTCmain\">$CME比特币主连(BTCmain)$</a> :大有问题</h4><p>比特币大跌其实是货币紧缩政策的副产物,理论来说当加息路径明确时便是比特币触底之时,不过意外往往来源于现实的摩擦力。一家叫做Celsius的数字货币因平台风控不当,为了满足用户的赎回需求而不得不进行了大量抛售砸盘,引发恐慌导致了流动性危机。</p><p>今天翻阅的文章中最离谱的一篇标题是“下跌没有实质性利空只是因为挤兑“。我只能说把货币和金融体系价值分开评估心可是真够大的。这件事暴露出了数字货币严重的监管问题,有问题的难道只有Celsius一家吗?我相信很多空头都会盯上这个裂了缝的鸡蛋,在通胀出现缓解前建议不要抄底数字货币相关资产。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a></p><p></p><hr><p>恭喜你找到小虎卡片,在本帖下方留言“Tiger is here”即可获赠88虎币,找到8张卡片并集齐的虎友可以获得888虎币</p><p>详情请点击:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/689330893\" target=\"_blank\">【老虎八周年】集卡大作战</a><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/263feadb611721d590929408bee25966\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>6月17日也就是本周五,四巫日再度降临。这是在社区写作以来经历的第四个四巫日:</p><ul> \n <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/884843295\" target=\"_blank\">9月17日四巫日</a>:当天无事,周一大跌</li> \n <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/690687251\" target=\"_blank\">12月17日四巫日</a>:当天无事,周四大跌</li> \n <li>以及3月18日四巫日:俄乌局势缓和,市场大涨</li> \n</ul><p>从之前的历史记录来看,四巫日前后行情波动剧烈。本周四巫日恰好在加息之后,或成为再度变盘转折点。</p><p>目前市场对于加息预期非常悲观,如图所示,根据美联储观察工具显示交易员普遍预期加息75基点的概率为95.9%。但实际上在这之前,鲍威尔在内的多位美联储高官一直在暗示6月河7月各加息50个基点,截止到9月前的路径规划十分明确。</p><p>所以针对5月难看的通胀数据,更有可能是进一步明确9月的加息策略。当6月加息低于预期时,市场就会触底反弹,行情看涨,而不出意外的是周四大概率继续下跌,借口我已经想好了,就是9月货币紧缩政策超出预期。</p><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d19e50bf9bdf55977c1b247735d2360\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\">说起来昨天也是一个值得纪念的日子,标普500指数正式跌破拜登上任时的3816.22点。对于这种深度回调,有一个说法是,每位总统在任时大盘都会对他上任第一天的点数进行测试。川普比较幸运,2020年疫情导致股市触及低位时美联储及时进行政策调整大放水。但拜登恐怕要持续背负着股市负增长的业绩了。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e81098cdda75b6e9d34edcceaef5d106\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1663\"></p><h4>关于<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/BTCmain\">$CME比特币主连(BTCmain)$</a> :大有问题</h4><p>比特币大跌其实是货币紧缩政策的副产物,理论来说当加息路径明确时便是比特币触底之时,不过意外往往来源于现实的摩擦力。一家叫做Celsius的数字货币因平台风控不当,为了满足用户的赎回需求而不得不进行了大量抛售砸盘,引发恐慌导致了流动性危机。</p><p>今天翻阅的文章中最离谱的一篇标题是“下跌没有实质性利空只是因为挤兑“。我只能说把货币和金融体系价值分开评估心可是真够大的。这件事暴露出了数字货币严重的监管问题,有问题的难道只有Celsius一家吗?我相信很多空头都会盯上这个裂了缝的鸡蛋,在通胀出现缓解前建议不要抄底数字货币相关资产。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a></p><p></p><hr><p>恭喜你找到小虎卡片,在本帖下方留言“Tiger is here”即可获赠88虎币,找到8张卡片并集齐的虎友可以获得888虎币</p><p>详情请点击:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/689330893\" target=\"_blank\">【老虎八周年】集卡大作战</a><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/263feadb611721d590929408bee25966\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p></body></html>","text":"6月17日也就是本周五,四巫日再度降临。这是在社区写作以来经历的第四个四巫日: 9月17日四巫日:当天无事,周一大跌 12月17日四巫日:当天无事,周四大跌 以及3月18日四巫日:俄乌局势缓和,市场大涨 从之前的历史记录来看,四巫日前后行情波动剧烈。本周四巫日恰好在加息之后,或成为再度变盘转折点。 目前市场对于加息预期非常悲观,如图所示,根据美联储观察工具显示交易员普遍预期加息75基点的概率为95.9%。但实际上在这之前,鲍威尔在内的多位美联储高官一直在暗示6月河7月各加息50个基点,截止到9月前的路径规划十分明确。 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