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市场“大战”美联储,这场抵抗会如何收场
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Mester。</p><p>媒体称,周四Mester在接受采访时发出警告称<b>“需要进一步提高利率以缓解需求”,并且重申,她并没有看见任何衰退可以威胁到美联储的政策。</b></p><p>此外她还强调称,加息速度“可能比我之前预计的还要快”:</p><blockquote>我目前认为利率可被酌情上调至4%以上......我认为坚持这个观点是合理的,我们会达到那里,我们会看到。</blockquote><p>她还补充道:</p><blockquote><b>利率将在今年和明年上半年继续上调</b>,也许到那时我们会暂停,然后我们可以开始把利率降下来,但是现在很难设想到那么远。</blockquote><p>Mester还再次强调控制通胀的重要性。她认为在美联储下调利率之前,她需要看到通胀水平在数月中出现下降。</p><p>总而言之,<b>Mester的“鹰派”发言延续美联储的统一外宣观点,旨在告诫市场,不要低估他们抗击通胀的决心,不要再“唱反调”。</b></p><p>但现在问题就是,市场真的会听吗?</p><p>市场不再相信美联储</p><p>市场与美联储之间的大战,7月第二次加息75基点就是“导火索”。</p><p><b>在此之前,市场基本还能接受美联储所讲的故事。</b></p><p>当去年的“通胀暂时论”被现实狠狠教育之后,在今年早些时候,美联储开始正视通胀压力。</p><p>当时美联储告诉市场,控制通胀是眼下第一要务。而他们控制通胀的方式就是,通过提高利率和缩减资产负债表的“量化紧缩”政策来收紧金融环境,从而提高借贷成本,抑制投资和需求,消除助推通胀上行的“燃料”,在持续一段时间之后,最终实现物价平稳。</p><p><b>其中,美联储需要通过市场来将货币政策传导至金融环境之中,之后再逐步传递至实体经济。</b></p><p>由此可见,市场在其中的地位举足轻重。</p><p>起初,市场接受了这套说辞。</p><p>所以他们接受了债券价格下跌收益率飙升,接受了股票和加密货币市场被暴风袭击,接受了房地产市场出现放缓迹象,认为一切都是为了控制通胀。</p><p>然而他们看到的结果是,美国6月CPI通胀上涨9.1%,再度刷新40年新高。</p><p><b>美联储“通胀斗士”的声誉就这样一点点被消磨殆尽,市场不再相信美联储。</b></p><p>因此当美联储再度超大幅度加息75基点之后,立刻引起了市场的“逆反心理”。</p><p>市场拒绝再为美联储传递货币政策,他们开始押注在衰退阴霾面前,美联储将很快“屈服”,并在紧缩道路上“转向”,最快在9月会议上就将启动降息。</p><p>在这种预期的指引下,资产价格开始飙升,美股大涨、美债收益率暴跌。</p><p>到这个时候,市场欢欣鼓舞,认为他们已经拿下了这一局。</p><p>然而他们可能没想到的是,他们抗争得越久,结局就会越惨烈。</p><p>顽强抵抗 等来的可能只是一地鸡毛</p><p>因为美联储不会放弃。</p><p>当市场押注美联储“转向”,从而推高美股价格并压低美债收益率时,相当于放松了金融市场环境。</p><p><b>而这导致的后果是,高企通胀因此被“火上浇油”,更多需求被激发出来,缓和了经济衰退风险,抵消了美联储为控制通胀所作出的努力。</b></p><p>而且讽刺的是,这也有悖于他们自身的逻辑立场。市场之所以预计美联储可能“转向”,就是认为美联储将难以抵挡衰退压力。然而他们自身努力推高美股的行动,却是在缓和这种风险。</p><p><b>总之,如果市场继续拒绝为美联储传递货币政策,那么美联储将不得不在紧缩道路上飞速前进,通过继续加息来打击市场,直到市场屈服。</b></p><p>而这个过程注定是惨烈的。</p><p>因为市场的抵抗行为会进一步推高通胀,进一步让通胀变得根深蒂固,导致美联储的加息幅度将远超预期。</p><p>而等到市场终于无力抵抗,愿意和美联储达成合作时,一切只会变得非常糟糕。</p><p>而且抵抗时间越长,情况越糟糕。</p><p>到时候,已经屈服的市场再没有可以和美联储谈判的权利,摆在他们面前的或许只有这种惨淡结局。</p><p>顽强抵抗,等来的可能只是一地鸡毛。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场“大战”美联储,这场抵抗会如何收场</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场“大战”美联储,这场抵抗会如何收场\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-05 11:06 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3666843><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在今年早些时候,美联储想要说服市场配合央行的货币政策,还远不像现在这么费力。然而仅仅半年之后,即便美联储发出数十年来最强烈的紧缩信号,市场依旧“我行我素”甚至助推美股刷新近年最佳表现。这导致美联储只好派出一位又一位高官开启车轮战,让他们直接对着市场疯狂“泼冷水”,高声“放鹰”。昨日这项任务轮到克利夫兰联储行长的Loretta Mester。媒体称,周四Mester在接受采访时发出警告称“需要...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3666843\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3666843","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1120012174","content_text":"在今年早些时候,美联储想要说服市场配合央行的货币政策,还远不像现在这么费力。然而仅仅半年之后,即便美联储发出数十年来最强烈的紧缩信号,市场依旧“我行我素”甚至助推美股刷新近年最佳表现。这导致美联储只好派出一位又一位高官开启车轮战,让他们直接对着市场疯狂“泼冷水”,高声“放鹰”。昨日这项任务轮到克利夫兰联储行长的Loretta Mester。媒体称,周四Mester在接受采访时发出警告称“需要进一步提高利率以缓解需求”,并且重申,她并没有看见任何衰退可以威胁到美联储的政策。此外她还强调称,加息速度“可能比我之前预计的还要快”:我目前认为利率可被酌情上调至4%以上......我认为坚持这个观点是合理的,我们会达到那里,我们会看到。她还补充道:利率将在今年和明年上半年继续上调,也许到那时我们会暂停,然后我们可以开始把利率降下来,但是现在很难设想到那么远。Mester还再次强调控制通胀的重要性。她认为在美联储下调利率之前,她需要看到通胀水平在数月中出现下降。总而言之,Mester的“鹰派”发言延续美联储的统一外宣观点,旨在告诫市场,不要低估他们抗击通胀的决心,不要再“唱反调”。但现在问题就是,市场真的会听吗?市场不再相信美联储市场与美联储之间的大战,7月第二次加息75基点就是“导火索”。在此之前,市场基本还能接受美联储所讲的故事。当去年的“通胀暂时论”被现实狠狠教育之后,在今年早些时候,美联储开始正视通胀压力。当时美联储告诉市场,控制通胀是眼下第一要务。而他们控制通胀的方式就是,通过提高利率和缩减资产负债表的“量化紧缩”政策来收紧金融环境,从而提高借贷成本,抑制投资和需求,消除助推通胀上行的“燃料”,在持续一段时间之后,最终实现物价平稳。其中,美联储需要通过市场来将货币政策传导至金融环境之中,之后再逐步传递至实体经济。由此可见,市场在其中的地位举足轻重。起初,市场接受了这套说辞。所以他们接受了债券价格下跌收益率飙升,接受了股票和加密货币市场被暴风袭击,接受了房地产市场出现放缓迹象,认为一切都是为了控制通胀。然而他们看到的结果是,美国6月CPI通胀上涨9.1%,再度刷新40年新高。美联储“通胀斗士”的声誉就这样一点点被消磨殆尽,市场不再相信美联储。因此当美联储再度超大幅度加息75基点之后,立刻引起了市场的“逆反心理”。市场拒绝再为美联储传递货币政策,他们开始押注在衰退阴霾面前,美联储将很快“屈服”,并在紧缩道路上“转向”,最快在9月会议上就将启动降息。在这种预期的指引下,资产价格开始飙升,美股大涨、美债收益率暴跌。到这个时候,市场欢欣鼓舞,认为他们已经拿下了这一局。然而他们可能没想到的是,他们抗争得越久,结局就会越惨烈。顽强抵抗 等来的可能只是一地鸡毛因为美联储不会放弃。当市场押注美联储“转向”,从而推高美股价格并压低美债收益率时,相当于放松了金融市场环境。而这导致的后果是,高企通胀因此被“火上浇油”,更多需求被激发出来,缓和了经济衰退风险,抵消了美联储为控制通胀所作出的努力。而且讽刺的是,这也有悖于他们自身的逻辑立场。市场之所以预计美联储可能“转向”,就是认为美联储将难以抵挡衰退压力。然而他们自身努力推高美股的行动,却是在缓和这种风险。总之,如果市场继续拒绝为美联储传递货币政策,那么美联储将不得不在紧缩道路上飞速前进,通过继续加息来打击市场,直到市场屈服。而这个过程注定是惨烈的。因为市场的抵抗行为会进一步推高通胀,进一步让通胀变得根深蒂固,导致美联储的加息幅度将远超预期。而等到市场终于无力抵抗,愿意和美联储达成合作时,一切只会变得非常糟糕。而且抵抗时间越长,情况越糟糕。到时候,已经屈服的市场再没有可以和美联储谈判的权利,摆在他们面前的或许只有这种惨淡结局。顽强抵抗,等来的可能只是一地鸡毛。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2958,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":102,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":7582369,"commentId":"7582369","gmtCreate":1659713002891,"gmtModify":1659713006518,"authorId":3491499683313675,"author":{"id":3491499683313675,"idStr":"3491499683313675","authorId":3491499683313675,"name":"航天者Spark","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bde2839422f80e1314cc86a5158e22f","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd-1","templateUuid":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd","name":"星级创作者","description":"社区优质创作者:发表过3篇及以上精华帖,且30天内发表过至少一篇精华帖并参与过评论","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.laohu8.com/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.11.29","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2007},"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6295840391b9cdc17115677ba51429c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":685580049,"objectIdStr":"685580049","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"阅","text":"阅","html":"阅","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":7582363,"commentId":"7582363","gmtCreate":1659712691738,"gmtModify":1659712696255,"authorId":4114309218322020,"author":{"id":4114309218322020,"idStr":"4114309218322020","authorId":4114309218322020,"name":"每有昵称","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a773a6eb3187049ab6a039398c2ae03","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":685580049,"objectIdStr":"685580049","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":",","text":",","html":",","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":7582362,"commentId":"7582362","gmtCreate":1659712656595,"gmtModify":1659712661180,"authorId":3534308765331303,"author":{"id":3534308765331303,"idStr":"3534308765331303","authorId":3534308765331303,"name":"長乐","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7300e78b907cf4351b20882e2419653a","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6444b4970948c1077534c593eccd6d16","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":685580049,"objectIdStr":"685580049","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"😊","text":"😊","html":"😊","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":7582346,"commentId":"7582346","gmtCreate":1659712305925,"gmtModify":1659712310710,"authorId":3566872988123799,"author":{"id":3566872988123799,"idStr":"3566872988123799","authorId":3566872988123799,"name":"雨中漫步2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4bd90a1c77feeb25a61a96d40bbd1fa","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":685580049,"objectIdStr":"685580049","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"赞赞赞","text":"赞赞赞","html":"赞赞赞","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/685580049"}
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